Tournament: Gonzaga | Round: 1 | Opponent: Stanford | Judge: 

1AC

Plan

Plan: the United States federal government should substantially increase loan guarantees for the construction of nuclear power plants based on the Integral Fast Reactor design.

Solvency – Loan Guarantees

Loan guarantees attract private capital – increases are key

Ari Peskoe, associate in the law firm of McDermott Will and Emery LLP and focuses his practice on regulatory, legislative, compliance, and transactional issues related to energy markets, 4-20-2012, "A Solution Looking For a Problem: Building More Nuclear Reactors after Vogtle," The Electricty Journal, vol 25 issue 3, Science Direct
Given the checkered history of reactor construction projects,56 private lenders are understandably skittish
AND
would likely cover much of the liabilities associate with a nuclear disaster.64

Makes nuclear competitive – they’re cheap to operate

Charles Ferguson, president of the Federation of American Scientists, November 2011, "JAPAN MELTED DOWN. BUT THAT DOESN’T MEAN THE END OF THE ATOMIC AGE," Foreign Policy issue 189, EBSCO
IN FACT, NUCLEAR POWER plants are relatively cheap to operate. Averaging the costs
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a good deal, once you factor in the risks of climate change.

Loan guarantees cause project capitalization – federal signal key

Michael Scott, former senior advisor at the Department of Treasury and partner and managing director at Miller Buckfire %26 Co as well as head of the firm’s U.S. Government Advisory practice, 4-20-2010, "Statement of Michael D. Scott" Testimony before the Subcommittee on Domestic Policy of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform in the House of Representatives, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-111hhrg65123/pdf/CHRG-111hhrg65123.pdf
The President and Congress have a very powerful policy tool in Title XVII that is
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application and, significantly, before any closing on a Federal loan guarantee.

IFRs solve cost concerns – economies of scale take over

Barry Brook, chair of Climate Change at the University of Adelaide, 2-29-2009, "Prescription for the Planet – Part IV – Show me the money%21" Brave New Climate, http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/02/28/prescription-for-the-planet-part-iv-%E2%80%93-show-me-the-money/
The guts of Chapter 8 is lots of numbers — really big numbers. It
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are among the lowest in Europe, at around 3 eurocents per KWh.

Warming

Core

Yes Warming – Consensus

Yes anthropogenic warming – it’s as established as gravity

Donald R. Prothero, Professor of Geology at Occidental College and Lecturer in Geobiology at the California Institute of Technology, 3-1-2012, "How We Know Global Warming is Real and Human Caused," Skeptic, vol 17 no 2, EBSCO
Thanks to all the noise and confusion over climate change, the general public has
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no interest in debating it since the evidence is so clear-cut.

Yes Warming – Ice Caps

Massive ice cap melts prove warming – most recent evidence

Robin McKie, science editor for the Guardian, 8-11-2012, "Rate of Arctic summer sea ice loss is 50% higher than predicted," The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/aug/11/arctic-sea-ice-vanishing
Sea ice in the Arctic is disappearing at a far greater rate than previously expected
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and see no sea ice coverage in the Arctic, just open water."

Yes Warming – AT: Natural Cycle

Not a natural cycle

Donald R. Prothero, Professor of Geology at Occidental College and Lecturer in Geobiology at the California Institute of Technology, 3-1-2012, "How We Know Global Warming is Real and Human Caused," Skeptic, vol 17 no 2, EBSCO
"It’s just natural climatic variability." No, it is not. As I
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" has never seen the huge amount of paleoclimatic data that show otherwise.

Solvency

Dirty Bridge

Natural gas is a dirty bridge – it bought us time, but failure to transition ensures worse warming

Ted Nordhaus, Chairman of the Breakthrough Institute, and Michael Shellenberger, President of the Breakthrough Institute, 2-27-2012, "Beyond Cap and Trade, A New Path to Clean Energy," Yale Environment 360, http://e360.yale.edu/feature/nordhaus_shellenberger_beyond_cap_and_trade_a_new_path_to_clean_energy/2499/
A funny thing happened while environmentalists were trying and failing to cap carbon emissions in
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close existing ones, and put in place stronger EPA air pollution regulations.

Commitment to long-term commercialization of nuclear is key to solve warming

Ted Nordhaus, Chairman of the Breakthrough Institute, and Michael Shellenberger, President of the Breakthrough Institute, 2-27-2012, "Beyond Cap and Trade, A New Path to Clean Energy," Yale Environment 360, http://e360.yale.edu/feature/nordhaus_shellenberger_beyond_cap_and_trade_a_new_path_to_clean_energy/2499/
Continuing to drive down U.S. emissions will ultimately require that we develop
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fossil fuels. There simply is no substitute for making clean energy cheap. 

IFR solves cost concerns and carbon emissions

Steve Kirsch, founder and CEO of multiple tech companies collectively worth over %241 billion and MS in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science from MIT, November 2009, "Why We Should Build an Integral Fast Reactor Now," http://skirsch.wordpress.com/2009/11/25/ifr/
Unfortunately, even in the US, we have no plan to install the clean
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technology? Nobody I’ve talked to has been able to answer that question.

Fossil fuels fill in for any gap in nuclear capability – it’s nuclear or bust

George Monbiot, author of the bestselling books The Age of Consent: A Manifesto for a New World Order and Captive State: The Corporate Takeover of Britain, Heat: how to stop the planet burning and Bring on the Apocalypse?, 3-15-2012, "Why I am urging David Cameron to act against Friends of the Earth," The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2012/mar/15/david-cameron-friends-of-the-earth
But much more alarming is their apparent willingness to downgrade the effort to tackle man
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most of the remainder, the gap will be filled by fossil fuel.

US inaction on clean energy kills its climate leadership – that blocks all negotiations

Strobe Talbott, President of the Brookings Institution, and John-Michael Arnold, special assistant to the President at Brookings, 5-25-2012, "It’s the Climate, Stupid%21" Brookings, http://www.brookings.edu/~~/media/research/files/papers/2012/5/25%20americas%20role%20talbott/0525%20americas%20role%20talbott.pdf
And then there’s climate change, the most urgent, most consequential, most dangerous
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problem to becoming a significant—and leading—part of the solution.

Impacts

Warming Bad – Species Loss

Climate change causes waves of extinctions – our window of opportunity is slamming shut

Bryan Walsh, senior writer for TIME magazine, covering energy and the environment, 4-13-2009, "The New Age of Extinction," TIME, EBSCO
There have been five extinction waves in the planet’s history—including the Permian extinction
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the Center for Biological Diversity (CBD). "But it’s slamming shut."

Warming Bad – Venus

Runaway feedback loops cause total global extinction and turn the earth into Venus

Jozef Pecho, Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Academy of Science of the Czech Republic, 3-1-2011, "Review: Storms of My Grandchildren," International Issues %26 Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs, EBSCO
Hansen is a pioneer in modern climate science. His whole-life journey to
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to melt lead. Runaway greenhouse effect could eliminate all life on Earth.

Leadership

Prolif

Prolif – Inherency

We’re on the brink of rapid prolif – access to tech is inevitable and multilateral institutions fail

CFR 7-5-2012, "The Global Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime," Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.cfr.org/proliferation/global-nuclear-nonproliferation-regime/p18984
Nuclear weapons proliferation, whether by state or nonstate actors, poses one of the
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way for "the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons."

Prolif – Leadership Key

US leadership is key – only direct government pressure solves

CFR 7-5-2012, "The Global Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime," Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.cfr.org/proliferation/global-nuclear-nonproliferation-regime/p18984
International instruments for combating nuclear proliferation were largely successful before 1991, but are proving
AND
, rising doubts about the sustainability of the nonproliferation regime are no surprise.

Prolif Bad – Nuke War

(  )  Proliferation will lead to nuclear use, terrorist acquisition of nuclear weapons, miscalculation and accidental launch

George Shultz, secretary of state from 1982 to 1989, William Perry, secretary of defense from 1994 to 1997,Henry Kissinger, secretary of state from 1973 to 1977, and Sam Nunn, former chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee,  1-4-2007, "A World Free of Nuclear Weapons," Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116787515251566636.html
Nuclear weapons today present tremendous dangers, but also an historic opportunity. U.
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fortunate in the next 50 years as we were during the Cold War? 

(  )  Proliferation would be rapid – nuclear hedging

Mitchell Reiss, fmr director of the Reves Center for International Studies, 2004, "The Nuclear Tipping Point"
Or it may be that countries would not sprint to cross the nuclear finish line
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even years, awaiting a political decision to tip them over the edge.

(  )  Regional prolif cascades

Kurt Campbell, senior vice president and director of the International Security Program and Chair in National Security at CSIS, 2004, "The Nuclear Tipping Point"
A nation’s desire to achieve a balance of military power with it neighbors is another
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upsetting regional relations with the United States, Russia, and South Asia.

IFRs Key

Inaction on IFRs is killing US leadership and ability to influence prolif

Joseph Shuster, founder of Minnesota Valley Engineering and Chemical Engineer, 9-8-2011, "Response to Draft Report From Obama’s Blue Ribbon Commission (BRC) on America’s Nuclear Future dated July 29, 2011," Beyond Fossil Fools, www.beyondfossilfools.com/assets/files/BRCresponse.pdf
Contrary to the commission’s declarations on the matter, the U.S. is
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really did was give our competitors an additional two years to catch up.

Civilian Nukes Key

Civilian nuclear power is key to nuclear leadership – that’s key to control prolif

Pete Domenici, former senator from New Mexico, and Warren F. "Pete" Miller, part time Research Professor at Texas A %26 M University and former assistant secretary for nuclear energy at the U.S. Department of Energy, July 2012, "Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Global Nuclear Energy Markets," Bipartisan Policy Center, http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Leadership%20in%20Nuclear%20Energy%20Markets.pdf
Nuclear power technologies are distinct from other potential exports in energy or in other sectors
AND
, could help address concerns about the proliferation of uranium-enrichment capabilities).

Civilian Nukes Key – New Capacity

New nuclear capacity is key – slowing investment swamps all alt causes

Pete Domenici, former senator from New Mexico, and Warren F. "Pete" Miller, part time Research Professor at Texas A %26 M University and former assistant secretary for nuclear energy at the U.S. Department of Energy, July 2012, "Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Global Nuclear Energy Markets," Bipartisan Policy Center, http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Leadership%20in%20Nuclear%20Energy%20Markets.pdf
As the world’s largest commercial nuclear operator and dominant weapons state, the United States
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in domestic nuclear energy activities could erode U.S. international standing.

New construction is key

Harold Bengelsdorf, Principal with the consulting firm Bengelsdorf, McGoldrick, and Associates, and held numerous senior positions in the US Government including DoE, State, and the IAEA, Fred McGoldrick, Principal with Bengelsdorf, McGoldrick, and Associates and served in the DoE and negotiator on nuclear nonproliferation with the State Department, and Michael Schwartz, Principal with Energy Resources International and consultant to electric utility companies, suppliers, industry associations, and governments, May 2007, "THE U.S. DOMESTIC CIVIL NUCLEAR INFRASTRUCTURE AND U.S. NONPROLIFERATION POLICY," American Council on Global Nuclear Competitiveness, http://www.nuclearcompetitiveness.org/images/COUNCIL_WHITE_PAPER_Final.pdf
Consumer countries are likely to turn for support and assistance to those states possessing the
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of long lead time components and coping with anticipated shortages of experienced personnel.

Fuel Cycle Leadership Key

Capacity of the US to import spent fuel solves fuel cycle proliferation

Pete Domenici, former senator from New Mexico, and Warren F. "Pete" Miller, part time Research Professor at Texas A %26 M University and former assistant secretary for nuclear energy at the U.S. Department of Energy, July 2012, "Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Global Nuclear Energy Markets," Bipartisan Policy Center, http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Leadership%20in%20Nuclear%20Energy%20Markets.pdf
Leadership in technological and policy developments related to the management of the nuclear fuel cycle
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have to develop effective spent fuel management and disposal capabilities of their own.

Leadership – Solvency – Yes Modeled

Civilian nuclear policy is modeled and spills over to global nuclear leadership

Scott D. Sagan, Professor of Political Science and Co-Director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, 4-18-2011, "The International Security Implications Of U.S. Domestic Nuclear Power Decisions," http://cybercemetery.unt.edu/archive/brc/20120621005012/http://brc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/sagan_brc_paper_final.pdf
Reasonable people may well disagree about the value of specific policy proposals regarding nuclear power
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fully appreciate how much our policies influence the decisions made by foreign governments.

Waste

Yes SNF

Spent nuclear fuel is dangerously exposed in the status quo – only fast reactors solve

Fred Pearce, reporter on environmental issues for over 20 years, environmental correspondent for the New Scientist and The Guardian, 7-30-2012, "Are fast-breeder reactors the answer to our nuclear waste nightmare?" The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/30/fast-breeder-reactors-nuclear-waste-nightmare?newsfeed=true
None of it yet has a home. If not used as a fuel,
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a policy framework in the U.S. for solving this issue."

Solves conventional reprocessing and depleted Uranium

Charles Archambeau et al, PhD in Geophysics from Cal Tech and President of Technology Research Associates corporation, February 2011, "The Integral Fast Reactor (IFR): An Optimized Source for Global Energy Needs," The Science Council for Global Initiatives, https:// ams.confex.com/ams/91Annual/webprogram/Handout/Paper179693/179693_replacement.pdf%26ei=xCxOUOjPN8bmqAHj44HYCQ%26usg=AFQjCNF5uN6Ae0YTILNa1RDfyMLmFpJvlg%26cad=rja
The European recycle option produces waste which still has actinides with long half-lives
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any insurmountable containment problems involving IFR waste at a well-designed repository.

SNF Bad – Terrorism

Loose spent fuel ensures nuclear terrorism

Nuclear Threat Initiative, 8-1-2012, "Why Is Highly Enriched Uranium a Threat?" Prepared by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, http://www.nti.org/analysis/reports/civilian-heu-reduction-and-elimination/
The most difficult challenge for a terrorist organization seeking to build a nuclear weapon or
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or decommissioned, while eight are planned or under construction. ~[4~]

Nuke Terror Bad – Retal

Nuclear terror causes retal – global escalation

Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010, "After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects," Studies in Conflict %26 Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)
A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the use of nuclear weapons in response by
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for the terrorists. This might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.

Nuke Terror Bad – Nuclear Winter

Nuclear terrorism causes the same causalities and full scale nuke war and nuclear winter

O. B. Toon, et al. department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, U Colorado Boulder, 4-19-2007, "Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism," Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1973-2002.
To an increasing extent, people are congregating in the world’s great urban centers,
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should be carried out as well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

Tournament: Idaho State | Round: 2 | Opponent: Gonzaga CC | Judge: Paul Montrieul
Hey everyone, sorry about how long this took to get up. I thought I had successfully uploaded it weeks ago using the verbatim thing, but I guess that should teach me a lesson about trusting new Aaron Hardy technology. Anyway, the open source document is below. Email me any questions if you've got em. menziebr@whitman.edu

Ben

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
The 1AC was unchanged from ISU except that we haven't been reading nuclear terrorism as an impact to prolif.

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge: 

Plan

Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase loan guarantees for the expansion of nuclear power in the United States.

Solvency

Solvency – Loan Guarantees

Loan guarantees attract private capital – increases are key

Ari Peskoe, associate in the law firm of McDermott Will and Emery LLP and focuses his practice on regulatory, legislative, compliance, and transactional issues related to energy markets, 4-20-2012, “A Solution Looking For a Problem: Building More Nuclear Reactors after Vogtle,” The Electricty Journal, vol 25 issue 3, Science Direct

Given the checkered history of reactor construction projects,56 private lenders are understandably skittish

AND

would likely cover much of the liabilities associate with a nuclear disaster.64

Government support overcomes financial barriers – key hurdle

Kassia Yanosek, entrepreneur-in-residence at Stanford University’s Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance and a private equity investor in the energy sector as a principal at Quadrant Management and Founder of Tana Energy Capital LLC, Spring 2012, " Financing Nuclear Power in the US", energyclub.stanford.edu/index.php/Journal/Financing_Nuclear_Power_by_Kassia_Yanosek

Over the course of the last decade, it appeared that concerns about carbon emissions

AND

of tax credits and loan guarantees provided in the 2005 Energy Policy Act.

Makes nuclear competitive – they’re cheap to operate

Charles Ferguson, president of the Federation of American Scientists, November 2011, “JAPAN MELTED DOWN. BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN THE END OF THE ATOMIC AGE,” Foreign Policy issue 189, EBSCO

IN FACT, NUCLEAR POWER plants are relatively cheap to operate. Averaging the costs

AND

a good deal, once you factor in the risks of climate change.

Loan guarantees cause project capitalization – federal signal key

Michael Scott, former senior advisor at the Department of Treasury and partner and managing director at Miller Buckfire and Co as well as head of the firm’s U.S. Government Advisory practice, 4-20-2010, “Statement of Michael D. Scott” Testimony before the Subcommittee on Domestic Policy of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform in the House of Representatives, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-111hhrg65123/pdf/CHRG-111hhrg65123.pdf

The President and Congress have a very powerful policy tool in Title XVII that is

AND

application and, significantly, before any closing on a Federal loan guarantee.

Gas Advantage

Natural gas is gaining market dominance – expansion of nuclear power avoids a bridge to nowhere

Jesse Jenkins, director of energy and climate policy at the Breakthrough Institute, previously worked as a Policy and Research Associate at the Renewable Northwest Project, 1-20-2012, “Avoiding a Natural Gas Bridge to Nowhere,” The Energy Collective, http://theenergycollective.com/breakthroughinstitut/74658/avoiding-natural-gas-bridge-nowhere

Just as the history of unconventional natural gas production in America was fundamentally shaped by

AND

just like its past, depends on our willingness to invest in innovation.

Long term lock in is coming – building up alternatives is key

Christopher Jones, Ciriacy-Wantrup Fellow, University of California-Berkeley, 8-29-2012, “Natural Gas: Bridge or Dead End?” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/christopher-f-jones/bridge-or-dead-end_b_1837015.html

Natural gas is often touted as a bridge fuel: an interim step between the

AND

simply about building a bridge, but also about building off-ramps.

Natural gas as a bridge ensures a methane apocalypse – expansion of nuclear reduces the short run magnitude of emissions preventing the climate from crossing short run tipping points.

Bill Chameides, Dean, Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment, 7-20-2012, “Natural Gas: A Bridge to a Low-Carbon Future or Not?” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bill-chameides/-natural-gas-a-bridge-to_b_1690857.html

Not really, scientists like Bob Howarth of Cornell University, protested. Why?

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will recover once the methane is flushed from the atmosphere? Probably not.

Controlling methane emissions is more important than CO2 – methane hits us while we are vulnerable.

Joe Romm, Fellow at American Progress and is the editor of Climate Progress, acting assistant secretary of energy for energy efficiency and renewable energy in 1997, PHD in physics from MIT, 4-9-2012, “Natural Gas Is A Bridge To Nowhere Absent A Carbon Price AND Strong Standards To Reduce Methane Leakage”, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/09/460384/natural-gas-is-a-bridge-to-nowhere-absent-a-carbon-price-and-strong-standards-to-reduce-methane-leakage/

A new journal article finds that methane leakage greatly undercuts or eliminates entirely the climate

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worse for the climate than coal for at least some period of time.

Fugitive emissions are massive – best sources – latest studies confirm

David Lewis, PHD, staff writer, 12-7-2010, “EPA confirms high Natural Gas leakage rates,” The Energy Collective, http://theenergycollective.com/david-lewis/48209/epa-confirms-high-natural-gas-leakage-rates

The latest EPA study confirms that its original "seminal" study of methane leaks

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was using.  EPA clearly states the reference data was bad all along. 

Methane release is insulated from the warming debate – unique threat

Clean Energy Educational Trust, energy and environmental analysts, 2001, “Runaway Methane Global Warming,” Hydrogen NOW! Journal, http://www.hydrogen.co.uk/h2_now/journal/articles/3_Methane.htm

Core samples taken from old ocean sediment layers have been used to trace back in

AND

CO2 was the cause then the raised temperatures would last a lot longer.

Rapid climate shifts cause extinction

Max Mcclure, staff writer, 6-7-2012, “Earth may be approaching 'tipping point,' Stanford scientist says,” Stanford University News, http://news.stanford.edu/news/2012/june/earth-tipping-point-060712.html

It's already established that global biological systems are capable of very rapid, wholesale shifts

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yet equipped with a flexible intergovernmental structure necessary to manage for this future."

Nuclear build up diversifies energy production – insulates against price spikes

Christine Todd Whitman, former EPA administrator and New Jersey governor, is the co-chair of the Clean and Safe Energy Coalition which promotes the inclusion of nuclear power as part of a clean energy portfolio, 5-9-2012, “It's dangerous to depend on natural gas,” Fortune, http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/09/christine-whitman-nuclear-energy/

The United States needs an "all of the above" energy strategy that focuses

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if we are to secure a safe and sustainable portfolio of energy resources.

Price spikes are inevitable and collapse the economy without nuclear power

Rod Adams, gained his nuclear knowledge as a submarine engineer officer and as the founder of a company that tried to develop a market for small, modular reactors from 1993-1999, 8-30-2012, “Will natural gas prices in North America skyrocket by the end of 2014?” The Energy Collective, http://theenergycollective.com/rodadams/107901/look-out-natural-gas-prices-north-america-will-skyrocket-end-2014?ref=node_other_posts_by

In the publications that I regularly read, it is impossible to avoid noticing that

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spoils as the economy crashes against the rocky shore of high energy prices.

Stable energy prices are key to manufacturing

Shelly Schwartz, staff writer, 6-20-2012, “Can the Natural Gas Sector Save the US Economy?” CNBC, http://www.cnbc.com/id/47280026/Can_the_Natural_Gas_Sector_Save_the_US_Economy

Like most commodities, natural gas has been prone to dramatic price swings for decades

AND

.S. and Canada are now second only to the Middle East.”

Manufacturing isn’t resilient – could totally collapse

Arvind Kaushal et al, partner with Booz and Co, Thomas Mayor, senior executive advisor, Patricia Riedel, principal at Booz and Co. Fall 2011, "Manufacturing’s Wake-Up Call" Booz and Co. http://booz.com/media/file/sb64-11306-Manufacturing~’s-Wake-Up-Call.pdf

Both the optimists and the pessimists are partially correct. U.S. manufacturing

AND

S. manufacturing capabilities could then erode past the point of no return.

Challengers are building up – manufacturing key to overall military superiority and deterrence

Mackenzie Eaglen et al, American Enterprise Institute, Rebecca Grant, IRIS Research, Robert P. Haffa, Haffa Defense Consulting, Michael O’Hanlon, The Brookings Institution, Peter W. Singer, The Brookings Institution, Martin Sullivan, Commonwealth Consulting, Barry Watts, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, January 2012, "The Arsenal of Democracy and How to Preserve It: Key Issues in Defense Industrial Policy, Brookings, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/1/26%20defense%20industrial%20base/0126_defense_industrial_base_ohanlon

Yet there are severe challenges that could result to the nation’s security interests even with

AND

difficulty restoring its ability to build nuclear submarines is a frequently cited example.)

US decline causes great power wars

Yuhan Zhang is a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.; and Lin Shi is from Columbia University. She also serves as an independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and a consultant for the World Bank in Washington, D.C., 1-22-2011, “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry,” http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/

Over the past two decades, no other state has had the ability to seriously

AND

forecast in a future that will inevitably be devoid of unrivalled US primacy.

Prolif Advantage

Yes Rapid Prolif

We’re on the brink of rapid prolif – access to tech is inevitable and multilateral institutions fail

CFR 7-5-2012, “The Global Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime,” Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.cfr.org/proliferation/global-nuclear-nonproliferation-regime/p18984

Nuclear weapons proliferation, whether by state or nonstate actors, poses one of the

AND

way for "the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons."

Nuclear hedging means proliferation would be rapid

Mitchell Reiss, fmr director of the Reves Center for International Studies, 2004, “The Nuclear Tipping Point”

Or it may be that countries would not sprint to cross the nuclear finish line

AND

even years, awaiting a political decision to tip them over the edge.

Prolif Bad – Nuke War

Prolif incentivizes aggression – that causes regional instability and increased conventional wars which escalate to global nuclear war

Matthew Kroenig, Professor of Government at Georgetown and Fellow at CFR specializing in Nuclear Security, 5-26-2012, “The History of Proliferation Optimism:  Does It Have A Future?” Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, http://www.npolicy.org/article.php?aid=1182andrtid=2

Regional instability: The spread of nuclear weapons also emboldens nuclear powers contributing to regional

AND

strike could very well lead to a wider war in the Middle East.

Yes rapid prolif – prolif begets prolif

Matthew Kroenig, Professor of Government at Georgetown and Fellow at CFR specializing in Nuclear Security, 5-26-2012, “The History of Proliferation Optimism:  Does It Have A Future?” Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, http://www.npolicy.org/article.php?aid=1182andrtid=2

Further proliferation.  Nuclear proliferation poses an additional threat to international peace and security because

AND

, giving us all good reason to fear the spread of nuclear weapons.

Past events don’t prove no miscalc – we’ve come really close and got lucky

Francois Heisbourg, Chairman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 4-4-2012, “NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION – LOOKING BACK, THINKING AHEAD: HOW BAD WOULD THE FURTHER SPREAD OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS BE?” Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, http://www.npolicy.org/article.php?aid=1171andrtid=2

Nuclear archives, as other sensitive governmental archives, open up usually after an interval

AND

serious risks occurring on several occasions since the mid-1980s(17).

Prolif snowballs – declining cred causes allied prolif

Matthew Kroenig, Professor of Government at Georgetown and Fellow at CFR specializing in Nuclear Security, 5-26-2012, “The History of Proliferation Optimism:  Does It Have A Future?” Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, http://www.npolicy.org/article.php?aid=1182andrtid=2

Undermines alliances: The spread of nuclear weapons also complicates U.S. alliance

AND

destabilizing an already unstable region and threatening Washington’s ability to influence regional dynamics.

Civilian Nukes Key

Civilian nuclear power is key to nuclear leadership – that’s key to control prolif

Pete Domenici, former senator from New Mexico, and Warren F. “Pete” Miller, part time Research Professor at Texas A and M University and former assistant secretary for nuclear energy at the U.S. Department of Energy, July 2012, “Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Global Nuclear Energy Markets,” Bipartisan Policy Center, http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Leadership%20in%20Nuclear%20Energy%20Markets.pdf

Nuclear power technologies are distinct from other potential exports in energy or in other sectors

AND

, could help address concerns about the proliferation of uranium-enrichment capabilities).

Strong nuclear industry key to global leadership – loan guarantees are critical

Olga Belogolova, staff writer, 7-19-2012, “U.S. Nuclear Industry Seen Needing a Boost,” National Journal Daily, Lexis.

A robust nuclear-energy industry should be a high priority for the country's energy

AND

were going slowly and they might not be willing to wait any longer.

US leadership is key – only direct government pressure solves

CFR 7-5-2012, “The Global Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime,” Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.cfr.org/proliferation/global-nuclear-nonproliferation-regime/p18984

International instruments for combating nuclear proliferation were largely successful before 1991, but are proving

AND

, rising doubts about the sustainability of the nonproliferation regime are no surprise.

New nuclear capacity is key – slowing investment swamps all alt causes

Pete Domenici, former senator from New Mexico, and Warren F. “Pete” Miller, part time Research Professor at Texas A and M University and former assistant secretary for nuclear energy at the U.S. Department of Energy, July 2012, “Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Global Nuclear Energy Markets,” Bipartisan Policy Center, http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Leadership%20in%20Nuclear%20Energy%20Markets.pdf

As the world’s largest commercial nuclear operator and dominant weapons state, the United States

AND

in domestic nuclear energy activities could erode U.S. international standing.

Civilian nuclear policy is modeled and spills over to global nuclear leadership

Scott D. Sagan, Professor of Political Science and Co-Director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, 4-18-2011, “The International Security Implications Of U.S. Domestic Nuclear Power Decisions,” http://cybercemetery.unt.edu/archive/brc/20120621005012/http://brc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/sagan_brc_paper_final.pdf

Reasonable people may well disagree about the value of specific policy proposals regarding nuclear power

AND

fully appreciate how much our policies influence the decisions made by foreign governments.

Nuke Terror

Increased prolif ensures nuclear terrorism

Matthew Kroenig, Professor of Government at Georgetown and Fellow at CFR specializing in Nuclear Security, 5-26-2012, “The History of Proliferation Optimism:  Does It Have A Future?” Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, http://www.npolicy.org/article.php?aid=1182andrtid=2

Nuclear terrorism. The spread of nuclear weapons also increases the risk of nuclear terrorism

AND

in authority forced us to worry about the fate of Iran’s nuclear arsenal.

Nuclear terror causes retal – global escalation

Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the use of nuclear weapons in response by

AND

for the terrorists. This might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.

It causes the same causalities as full scale nuke war

O. B. Toon, et al. department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, U Colorado Boulder, 4-19-2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1973-2002.

To an increasing extent, people are congregating in the world’s great urban centers,

AND

should be carried out as well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge: 

Perm do both

Perm do the CP

Perm do the plan and each combination of the planks

Supply side approach key – demand is unpredictable and supply makes it inevitable

NFU policies are too broad to be plausible or credible

Jeffrey Lewis, Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation, 1-4-2009, Los Angeles Times, Declaratory Policy, http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2583/declaratory-policy

I am temperamentally inclined toward a “no first use” pledge. (I

AND

a declaratory policy it does suffer from the problem that Sir Michael identified.

Condo

Done in 2010, not credible/doesn’t apply once breakout occurs

NFU doesn’t build nonprolif cred

Chris Jones, CSIS Intern, 11-4-2009, “Do Roles Speak Louder Than Numbers?,” http://csis.org/blog/do-roles-speak-louder-numbers

At first glance, it seems quite straightforward that reducing the role of nuclear weapons

AND

of other “deal breakers” that will still be touted to exist.

Only nuclear solves baseload generation – that’s Romm – key to create cheap alternatives for when price spikes happen

Their ev is only about slow-scale carbon emissions – not a card about methane

Only avoiding lock in avoids – that’s Chameides

Obviously doesn’t displace large scale nat gas supply chain – inevitable

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge: 

Nuclear power expansion’s key to global desalination

Saly T. Panicker and P.K. Tewari, Desalination Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai, 2011 “Nuclear Energy for Water Desalination” in “Nuclear Energy Encyclopedia: Science, Technology, and Applications”, googlebooks

Water scarcity is one of the most pressing crises affecting our planet It is a

AND

UAE are exploring the potential of nuclear desalination in their countries or regions.

Global water scarcity’s inevitable – kills billions

Nitish Priyadarshi, lecturer in the department of environment and water management at Ranchi University in India, “War for water is not a far cry”, 6-16-2012, http:~/~/www.cleangangaportal.org/node/44url:http://www.cleangangaportal.org/node/44

The battles of yesterday were fought over land. Those of today are over energy

AND

 Tunisia: 2.1 million  Cuba :1.3 million

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge: 

New US nuclear power demand causes nuclear expertise revival

APS (American Physical Society), Report from the APS Panel on Public Affairs Committee on Energy and Environment, June 2008, Readiness of the U.S. Nuclear Workforce for 21st Century Challenges, http://www.aps.org/policy/reports/popa-reports/upload/Nuclear-Readiness-Report-FINAL-2.pdf

The 21st century has brought a growing realization that it is time to reexamine the

AND

university reactors has dwindled from 63 to 25 during essentially the same period.

Key to credible nuclear deterrence

John C. Browne et al, Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired), Clark Murdock, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Francis Slakey, American Physical Society,  Benn Tannenbaum, American Association for the Advancement of Science,  Jessica Yeats, Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 2008, Nuclear Weapons in 21st Century U.S. National Security, http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/081208_nuclear_weapons_report.pdf

To maintain a credible nuclear deterrent, the United States should sustain the necessary human

AND

recruit, retain, and sustain highly skilled and motivated scientists and engineers.

Loss of U.S. nuclear primacy causes global nuclear war

John P Caves, Senior Research Fellow in the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at the National Defense University, January 2010, Strategic Forum, No. 252, “Avoiding a Crisis of Confidence in the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent,”

Perceptions of a compromised U.S. nuclear deterrent as described above would have

AND

scale far more catastrophic than what nuclear-armed terrorists alone could inflict.

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge: 

FW

Our interpretation is that plan focus is good

a)      Aff choice – other frameworks moot the 1AC

b)     Topic education – only focusing on the resolution ensures different ground from year to year

Reject non-policy alts and links not based on the plan text

Perm do both – double bind – either the alt can’t overcome the status quo or it can overcome residual link to the plan

Perm do the plan and all non-mutually exclusive parts of the alternative

Aff solves the impact – nuclear ensures unlimited energy

2AC Alt Vagueness

The alt is vague – it’s a voting issue

a)      Spikes our offense – no way for aff to win

b)     Skews 2AC time

c)      Damage is done – 2NC clarification rewards them because 1AR will always be behind

Proves can’t solve

Production Good

Production approach sustainable if managed correctly – tech advances

William J Baumol, professor of economics at NYU, Robert E. Litan, Senior Fellow of Economic Studies at the Brookings Institute, and Carl J. Schramm, President and chief executive officer of the Kauffman Foundation,” 2007, Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism, and the Economics of Growth and Prosperity

One line of skepticism about growth arises from individuals and groups who worry that as

AND

—and are able to grow far more food at the same time.

Epistemology is not a prerequisitedocx#_msocom_1||class

"msocomanchor" id="_anchor_1" language="JavaScript" name="_msoanchor_1"  ====

David Owen, University of Southampton, July 2002, “Re-orienting International Relations: On Pragmatism, Pluralism, and Practical Reasoning,” Millennium – Journal of International Studies, 31.3, p. 655-656

Commenting on the 'philosophical turn' in IR, Wæver remarks that 'a

AND

the first and second dangers, and so a potentially vicious circle arises.

Consumption Good

Consumption and consumerism are inevitable and build ethical democratic solidarity

Patricia Cohen, Writer for the New York Times, citing James B. Twitchell, Professor of English at the University of Florida, 7-7-2002, “In Defense Of Our Wicked, Wicked Way”, The New York Times, http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/jtwitche/nytimesarticle.pdf

What distinguishes Mr. Twitchell's study of excessive consumerism, though, is that he

AND

consumption is eternal. The ad slogan is right: Diamonds are forever.

Consequentialism Good – Mintz

Truth and values are only relevant IN PRACTICE – refuse their privledging of theory or values to practical effects

Joel Mintz, Professor of Law, Nova Southeastern University Law Center; Scholar, Center for Progressive Regulation, 2004, “Some Thoughts on the Merits of Pragmatism as a Guide to Environmental Protection,” 31 B.C. Envtl. Aff. L. Rev. 1, Lexis.

One particularly provocative aspect of environmental pragmatic thought is its desire for compatibilism, i

AND

case is contingent on historical, cultural, social and resource conditions." n62

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge: 

2AC Fiscal Cliff

No deal – GOP will only obstruct

Jonathan Chait, chief Washington correspondent, 10-14-2012, “November 7^th,” NY Magazine, http://nymag.com/news/politics/elections-2012/obama-romney-economic-plans-2012-10/

Obama tends to leave the contours of his second term pleasantly vague, which has

AND

White House. Cutting bipartisan deals increases Obama’s standing and thus reduces theirs.

It gets punted

Dan Friedman and Billy House, staff writers, 10-25-2012, “Congress could punt on the Fiscal Cliff,” National Journal, http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/congress-could-punt-on-the-fiscal-cliff-20121025

Lawmakers are downplaying hopes that they will avert the so-called fiscal cliff of

AND

into the new Congress, the nation will again reach its debt limit.

No lame duck grand compromise – Obama waits till January – boosts his PC enough to ensure victory

David Dayen, staff writer, 10-18-2012, “The Next Grand Bargain Negotiations Will Begin January 1,” Fire Dog Lake, http://news.firedoglake.com/2012/10/18/the-next-grand-bargain-negotiations-will-begin-january-1/

I know there’s a lot of outside pressure on Congress to reach a wide-

AND

. After January 1 is when the real work on this will begin.

Obama postpones cuts unilaterally – gives time for compromise

Lucas Kawa, staff writer, 11-6-2012, “Obama And Geithner May Have The Power To Make The Fiscal Cliff Less Scary,” Business Insider, http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-geithner-fiscal-cliff-2012-11

Zachary Goldfarb at the Washington Post, writes that President Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy

AND

almost certainly throw the U.S. economy into recession during 2013.

2AC Politics – Obama Good

Multiple peripheral issues will come up in the lame duck

Jake Sherman, staff writer, 9-24-2012, Hill braces for lame-duck frenzy, politico, dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=3B5A05C4-0674-471F-8B0D-AFDFF7748AD8

Tax rates, spending cuts and the deficit will dominate the Capitol this fall,

AND

at the end of the year — making each issue an uphill climb.

PC’s irrelevant

Lawrence Jacobs and Desmond King 10, University of Minnesota, Nuffield College, 8-2010 “Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency,”  Perspectives on Politics, 793-802

But personality is not a solid foundation for a persuasive explanation of presidential impact and

AND

, and anticipated voter reactions. Presidential sales pitches go only so far.

Winners win – empirics prove

David Michael Green, professor of political science at Hofstra University, 6-11-2010, “The Do-Nothing 44^th President,” http:~/~/www.opednews.com/articles/The-Do-Nothing-44th-Presid-by-David-Michael-Gree-100611-648.htmlhttp://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Do-Nothing-44th-Presid-by-David-Michael-Gree-100611-648.html

Moreover, there is a continuously evolving and reciprocal relationship between presidential boldness and achievement

AND

of the now retired Helen Thomas, this is precisely what they did.

Disads not intrinsic – logical policy maker could do both

Nuclear avoids controversy

Christine Todd Whitman, CASEnergy Co-Chair, Former EPA Administrator and New Jersey Governor, 8-13-2012, “Nuclear Power Garners Bipartisan Support,” National Journal, http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/finding-the-sweet-spot-biparti.php

Fortunately, there are rare areas for bipartisan agreement among policymakers around specific energy policy

AND

source of power that leaders on both sides of the aisle can support.

PC backfires – causes GOP entrenchment

Sophie Quinton, staff writer, 10-29-2012, “The bully pulpit won’t help Obama get a grand bargain,” Government Executive, http://www.govexec.com/oversight/2012/10/bully-pulpit-wont-help-obama-get-grand-bargain/59084/

 The Obama campaign believes in taking its message to the American people. But

AND

on a party line vote. Democrats love it. Republicans despise it.

Obama’s bulletproof

Ben Shapiro, staff writer, 2-22-2012, “Obama Campaign Has More Cash Than All Republicans Combined,” Big Government, http://biggovernment.com/bshapiro/2012/02/22/obama-campaign-has-more-cash-than-all-republicans-combined/

Obama still has enthusiasm on his side. His supporters still adore him. The

AND

a way to generate enthusiasm quickly, this could quickly become a blowout.

2AC Impact

Manufacturing’s bigger internal to the economy

Michael Ettlinger, the Vice President for Economic Policy at the Center for American Progress, former director of the Economic Analysis and Research Network of the Economic Policy Institute, and Kate Gordon, the Vice President for Energy Policy at the Center for American Progress, April 2011, "The Importance and Promise of American Manufacturing" http:~/~/www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/04/pdf/pdf

Manufacturing is critically important to the American economy. For generations, the strength of

AND

vulnerable to everything from exchange rate fluctuations to trade embargoes to natural disasters.

No impact – all of their cards assume years  of no deal, any future deal would restore funding

Tax hikes take a long time to even happen

Gas shocks are a better internal to the economy – spending cuts can be planned for, shocks can’t be and undermine fragile industries

Econ decline doesn’t cause war

Daniel W. Drezner, Professor of International Politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, October 2012, “The Irony of Global Economic Governance: The System Worked” http://www.cfr.org/international-organizations/irony-global-economic-governance-system-worked/p29101

The final outcome addresses a dog that hasn’t barked: the effect of the Great

AND

started with the end of the Cold War has not been reversed.21

The global economy is resilient – global economic institutions check collapse and US isn’t key

Daniel W. Drezner, Professor of International Politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, October 2012, “The Irony of Global Economic Governance: The System Worked” http://www.cfr.org/international-organizations/irony-global-economic-governance-system-worked/p29101

The 2008 financial crisis posed the biggest challenge to the global economy since the Great

AND

global cooperation. In short, international financial institutions passed the stress test.

• • • 2AC FROM ROUND 5 *

Fiscal Cliff
2AC Fiscal Cliff
No deal – GOP will only obstruct
Jonathan Chait, chief Washington correspondent, 10-14-2012, “November 7th,” NY Magazine, http://nymag.com/news/politics/elections-2012/obama-romney-economic-plans-2012-10/
Obama tends to leave the contours of his second term pleasantly vague, which has
AND
White House. Cutting bipartisan deals increases Obama’s standing and thus reduces theirs.
No lame duck grand compromise – Obama waits till January – boosts his PC enough to ensure victory
David Dayen, staff writer, 10-18-2012, “The Next Grand Bargain Negotiations Will Begin January 1,” Fire Dog Lake, http://news.firedoglake.com/2012/10/18/the-next-grand-bargain-negotiations-will-begin-january-1/
I know there’s a lot of outside pressure on Congress to reach a wide-
AND
. After January 1 is when the real work on this will begin.
Obama postpones cuts unilaterally – gives time for compromise
Lucas Kawa, staff writer, 11-6-2012, “Obama And Geithner May Have The Power To Make The Fiscal Cliff Less Scary,” Business Insider, http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-geithner-fiscal-cliff-2012-11
Zachary Goldfarb at the Washington Post, writes that President Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy
AND
almost certainly throw the U.S. economy into recession during 2013.
2AC Politics – Obama Good
Nuclear avoids controversy – they didn’t read a link card
Christine Todd Whitman, CASEnergy Co-Chair, Former EPA Administrator and New Jersey Governor, 8-13-2012, “Nuclear Power Garners Bipartisan Support,” National Journal, http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/finding-the-sweet-spot-biparti.php
Fortunately, there are rare areas for bipartisan agreement among policymakers around specific energy policy
AND
source of power that leaders on both sides of the aisle can support.
Multiple peripheral issues will come up in the lame duck
Jake Sherman, staff writer, 9-24-2012, Hill braces for lame-duck frenzy, politico, dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=3B5A05C4-0674-471F-8B0D-AFDFF7748AD8
Tax rates, spending cuts and the deficit will dominate the Capitol this fall,
AND
at the end of the year — making each issue an uphill climb.
PC’s irrelevant
Lawrence Jacobs and Desmond King 10, University of Minnesota, Nuffield College, 8-2010 “Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency,”  Perspectives on Politics, 793-802
But personality is not a solid foundation for a persuasive explanation of presidential impact and
AND
, and anticipated voter reactions. Presidential sales pitches go only so far.
Winners win – empirics prove
David Michael Green, professor of political science at Hofstra University, 6-11-2010, “The Do-Nothing 44th President,” http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Do-Nothing-44th-Presid-by-David-Michael-Gree-100611-648.html
Moreover, there is a continuously evolving and reciprocal relationship between presidential boldness and achievement
AND
of the now retired Helen Thomas, this is precisely what they did.
Disads not intrinsic – logical policy maker could do both
PC backfires – causes GOP entrenchment
Sophie Quinton, staff writer, 10-29-2012, “The bully pulpit won’t help Obama get a grand bargain,” Government Executive, http://www.govexec.com/oversight/2012/10/bully-pulpit-wont-help-obama-get-grand-bargain/59084/
 The Obama campaign believes in taking its message to the American people. But
AND
on a party line vote. Democrats love it. Republicans despise it.
Obama’s bulletproof
Ben Shapiro, staff writer, 2-22-2012, “Obama Campaign Has More Cash Than All Republicans Combined,” Big Government, http://biggovernment.com/bshapiro/2012/02/22/obama-campaign-has-more-cash-than-all-republicans-combined/
Obama still has enthusiasm on his side. His supporters still adore him. The
AND
a way to generate enthusiasm quickly, this could quickly become a blowout.
2AC Impact
No escalation
Christopher Fettweis, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College, December 2007, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98.
No matter what the outcome in Iraq, the region is not likely to devolve
AND
cooperation to address that common interest is far more likely than outright warfare.
No impact – inevitable deal restores funding, not enough time to collapse the whole military
Cuts are gradual – funding gets shifted around to stave off any real harm
Gas shocks are a better internal to hegemony – cuts have been on the books for a year, shocks can’t be planned for – strong manufacturing is key to long-term quality and quantity of capacity

• • • 1AR * 

1AR No Deal
No risk of passage – chait says that both sides political calculations are based on an underlying strategy that wont change – it’s a zero sum game – GOP loses everything if a bargain happens and they have proven to hold the line in the past – proven by the debt ceiling
*Election made it less likely – 50-50 at best
Naftali Bendavid, staff writer, 11-8-2012, “Focus Shifts to 'Fiscal Cliff',” WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323894704578105260044138592.html
Tuesday's vote left the U.S. with a government as polarized as it
AND
. "The risk of going off the cliff has just gotten huge."
*Zero risk of a lame duck deal even with friendly statements coming from both sides
Nancy Cook, staff writer, 11-8-2012, “To Avert a Fiscal-Cliff Catastrophe, Someone Has to Blink,” National Journal, http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/to-avert-a-fiscal-cliff-catastrophe-someone-has-to-blink-20121108
It’s hard to see the route to a quick deal—especially one before the
AND
over the cliff into the great unknown that hopefully sometime produces a compromise.
*Ideological lock in – overcomes Obama’s PC
Nancy Cook, staff writer, 11-8-2012, “To Avert a Fiscal-Cliff Catastrophe, Someone Has to Blink,” National Journal, http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/to-avert-a-fiscal-cliff-catastrophe-someone-has-to-blink-20121108
The far more likely scenario for both parties is a swan dive over the fiscal
AND
may both dislike one less than they dislike surrendering their entrenched tax positions.
1AR January Solves
Lame duck deal isn’t key and future deals are inevitable and solve the DA – Dayen says that going over the fiscal cliff boosts Obama’s PC massively – GOP hates the cuts that occur which means they fold.
*The government can hold back on cuts because Obama has unilateral authority over how and when the cuts occur – no impact to the interim cuts
David Dayen, staff writer, 11-2-2012, “OMB Watch Outlines Strategies to Minimize Near-Term Sequester Impact,” Fire Dog Lake, http://news.firedoglake.com/2012/11/02/omb-watch-outlines-strategies-to-minimize-near-term-sequester-impact/
Now, a new report from OMB Watch suggests that OMB and federal agencies can
AND
that means Democrats have a wider menu of options, election outcome permitting.
*Going over the cliff forces quick compromise which avoids economic collapse
John Ydstie, staff writer, 11-9-2012, “The Upside To Plunging Off The Fiscal Cliff,” http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2012/11/09/164814369/the-upside-to-plunging-off-the-fiscal-cliff
But some Democrats and policy analysts are suggesting that going over the fiscal cliff could
AND
Gale says. He thinks Congress would quickly tidy up the dirty work.

No Impact
Markets are desensitized to the fiscal cliff – the anticipate bumpiness and avoid doomsday thinking
Paul Lim, staff writer, 11-10-2012, “Investor Doomsday? Not Necessarily,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/11/your-money/fiscal-impasse-now-takes-center-stage-for-investors.html?ref=business
Marie M. Schofield, chief economist at Columbia Management Investment Advisers, agrees that
AND
that the financial markets are desensitized to this doomsday thinking,” he said. 

Major fights are inevitable – triggers the market freakout impact
Naftali Bendavid, staff writer, 11-8-2012, “Focus Shifts to 'Fiscal Cliff',” WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323894704578105260044138592.html
The betting in Washington and on Wall Street is that Mr. Obama and Congress
AND
all sorts of tax cuts will mean nearly all taxpayers will pay more.
(  )  No wars from econ collapse.
Morris Miller, Winter 2000, Interdisciplinary Science Reviews, “Poverty as a cause of wars?” V. 25, Iss. 4, p pq
The question may be reformulated. Do wars spring from a popular reaction to a
AND
by increasing repression (thereby using one form of violence to abort another). 

1AR January Thumper
If it happens in January, multiple thumpers kill it
Geewax, NPR Correspondent, 11-7-2012, “After Election, Congress Turns To 'Fiscal Cliff,' Other Money Issues,” NPR, http://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/npr/164474557/after-election-congress-turns-to-fiscal-cliff-other-money-issues
Still, they must try to get something done. The soon-to-
AND
, even before turning to all of the other fiscal-cliff elements.
1AR Link
A compromise is inevitable – its laughable that neither side will come a to a compromise eventually if the economy starts to crumble – their collective legacies are at stake
Nuclear is non-controversial
The magnitude of the link isn’t big enough to tank the compromise – even if the plan is controversial, you should evaluate a very high threshold for being able to tank must pass legislation
*No issue spillover – insulated committees
Jason Mathews, Director of Congressional and Public Affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, was the Chief of Staff for Senator Mary Landrieu, 2012, http://debateandthere alworld.com/article.php?id=6
D+TRW: Is it possible that the passage of legislation unrelated to the
AND
legislation in a variety of areas to be considered and disposed of simultaneously.
*The link self corrects because – can’t threaten to tank deals without backlash and the punt solves
Sean West, staff writer, 11-11-2012, “Perspective: Obama-Boehner fiscal cliff a self-denying prophecy,” StAugustine, http://staugustine.com/opinions/2012-11-10/perspective-obama-boehner-fiscal-cliff-self-denying-prophecy#.UJ8-VobbzjI
The last time President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner squared off over fiscal
AND
on willingness to go over the cliff absent a deal on its terms.

PC hurts Obama
Obama flexing his muscle hurts him – extend Quinton history proves PC causes GOP backlash
Obama pc collapses budget negotiations—2011 proves
The Hotline, 9-10-2012, “Slow and Steady Wins the Race,” Lexis
Gaps in Obama's leadership contributed to the collapse of a "grand bargain" on
AND
beginning of a war" (Klein, ABC, 9/10).

Tournament: Shirley | Round: 5 | Opponent: Mary Wash LP  | Judge: Andrea Reed

Perm do both – shields the link

Perm do the counterplan

Federal action is key – Scott says sends signal to investors

Federal action is key to getting skin in the game – reassures investors prohibitive regulations won’t get slapped on

Rod Adams, Publisher of Atomic insights. Was in the Navy for 33 years. Spent time at the Naval Academy. Has experience designing and running small nuclear plants, 1-29-2010, “Concrete Action to Follow Strongly Supportive Words On Building New Nuclear Power Plants,” Atomic Insights, http://atomicinsights.com/2010/01/concrete-action-to-follow-strongly-supportive-words-on-building-new-nuclear-power-plants.html

Loan guarantees are important to the nuclear industry because the currently available models are large

AND

government on the hook for delays that come from bad bureaucratic decision making.

Bowman indicates states are already offering incentives but companies don’t trust them

Evaluate small solvency deficits as large impacts – investors are cautious

The CP makes no sense

Federal credit is key to keep loans low cost – low interest rates and diverse portfolios

John Griffith, Policy Analyst with the Economic Policy Team at the Center for American Progress, and Richard Caperton, Director of Clean Energy Investment at the Center for American Progressed, 5-3-2012, “Major Analysis: Federal Loans And Loan Guarantees Have A Huge Benefit But A Low And Predicatable Cost,” ThinkProgress, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/05/03/475978/major-analysis-federal-loans-and-loan-guarantees-have-a-huge-benefit-but-a-low-and-predicatable-cost/?mobile=nc

The federal government is in a unique position to issue these loans and guarantees for

AND

to limit risks by regulating markets and ensuring compliance from lenders and borrowers.

Federal credit is key to keep loans low-risk

Karl Smith, Assistant Professor of Public Economics at University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, 4-12-2012, “In Praise of Federal Loan Guarantees (Yep, Just Like Solyndra's)” The Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/04/in-praise-of-federal-loan-guarantees-yep-just-like-solyndras/255721/

We may or may not question the wisdom of the federal government attempting to shape

AND

normal lending institution, the Federal Government has an easier time than ever.

States obviously still link to the election – they get perceived the same as the feds

50 state fiat is a voting issue – the damage has been done

a)    Multiple actors make it impossible to generate offense

b)    It’s utopian – 50 states have never operated together – that kills T spec edu

c)     Single-state CPs solve all their offense

Feds have to take the lead – boosts our expertise and means countries consult us on their nuclear decisions – that’s Domenici and Miller

Tournament: Shirley | Round: 5 | Opponent: Mary Wash LP  | Judge: Andrea Reed

2AC Neolib K

Our interpretation is that plan focus is good

a)    Aff choice – other frameworks moot the 1AC

b)    Topic education – only focusing on the resolution ensures different ground from year to year

Reject non-policy alts and links not based on the plan text

Perm do both – double bind – either the alt can’t overcome the status quo or it can overcome residual link to the plan

Perm do the plan and all non-mutually exclusive parts of the alternative

Evaluating consequences key to ethics

Jeffrey Isaac, James H. Rudy Professor of Political Science and director of the Center for the Study of Democracy and Public Life at Indiana University, Bloomington, Spring 2002, Dissent, vol. 49, no. 2

As writers such as Niccolo Machiavelli, Max Weber, Reinhold Niebuhr, and Hannah

AND

choices. But it should never be mistaken for a serious political commitment.

Ontology is not a prerequisiteAZ1url:#_msocom_1||class

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David Owen, University of Southampton, July 2002, “Re-orienting International Relations: On Pragmatism, Pluralism, and Practical Reasoning,” Millennium – Journal of International Studies, 31.3, p. 655-656

Commenting on the 'philosophical turn' in IR, Wæver remarks that 'a

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the first and second dangers, and so a potentially vicious circle arises.

The alt is vague – it’s a voting issue

a)    Spikes our offense – no way for aff to win

b)    Skews 2AC time

c)     Damage is done – 2NC clarification rewards them because 1AR will always be behind

neolib key to space

Robert Garmong, professor of philosophy at philosophy at Texas AandM University, 7-22-2005, “

Privatize Space Exploration,” Capitalism Magazine, http://capmag.com/article.asp?ID=4327

There is a contradiction at the heart of the space program: space exploration,

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must unleash its best minds, as only the free market can do.

Space is key to preventing extinction

James Oberg, space writer and a former space flight engineer based in Houston, 1999, Space Power Theory, http://www.jamesoberg.com/books/spt/new-CHAPTERSw_figs.pdf

We have the great gift of yet another period when our nation is not threatened

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back, it may be to the detriment of more than our country.

Neolib is sustainable – technological advances prove

William J Baumol, professor of economics at NYU, Robert E. Litan, Senior Fellow of Economic Studies at the Brookings Institute, and Carl J. Schramm, President and chief executive officer of the Kauffman Foundation,” 2007, Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism, and the Economics of Growth and Prosperity

One line of skepticism about growth arises from individuals and groups who worry that as

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—and are able to grow far more food at the same time.

Rejecting institutions causes worse neolib

Carl Boggs, Professor of Social Sciences at National University in Los Angeles, 1997, “The great retreat: Decline of the public sphere in late twentieth-century America,” Theory and Society, Volume 26, Number 6, December, Springer

The decline of the public sphere in late twentieth-century America poses a series

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of those universal, collective interests that had vanished from civil society.75

Tournament: Shirley | Round: 5 | Opponent: Mary Wash LP  | Judge: Andrea Reed

Accidents

Global growth inevitable despite Fukushima

Pete Domenici, former senator from New Mexico, and Warren F. “Pete” Miller, part time Research Professor at Texas A and M University and former assistant secretary for nuclear energy at the U.S. Department of Energy, July 2012, “Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Global Nuclear Energy Markets,” Bipartisan Policy Center, http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Leadership%20in%20Nuclear%20Energy%20Markets.pdf

Internationally, the outlook is quite different: a number of countries intend to grow

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, global growth in nuclear energy is still expected to be positive overall.

No impact to radiation – Chernobyl proves

Spencer Weart, Ph.D. in Physics and Astrophysics at CU Boulder and former Director fo the Center for History of Physics at the American Institute of Physics, 3-26-2012, “Shunning Nuclear Power Will Lead to a Warmer World,” Yale Environment 360, http://e360.yale.edu/feature/shunning_new_nuclear_power_plants_will_lead_to_warmer_world/2510/

But wasn’t Fukushima a health disaster? Not in the way you’d expect. Thanks

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that low levels of radiation are completely harmless. We just don’t know.

Lendman is stupid – multiple accidents prove – it doesn’t say extinction

Roney a hippie hack

US designs solve – building up now is key to check bad designs

Spencer Weart, PHD in physics, director of the center for history of physics at the American Instiute of Physics, 3-26-2012, “Shunning Nuclear Power,” Yale Environment 360, http://e360.yale.edu/feature/shunning_new_nuclear_power_plants_will_lead_to_warmer_world/2510/

For the time being, economics is doing as much as public fears to prevent

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from staving off the all too real danger of a global climate disaster. 

Tournament: Shirley | Round: 5 | Opponent: Mary Wash LP  | Judge: Andrea Reed 

Methane increases cause ozone collapse

Space Today Online, 2005, “The Ozone Hole in 2003 was almost as big…” http://www.spacetoday.org/SolSys/Earth/AntarcticOzoneHole.html

Water and ozone. Scientists wonder if a wetter upper atmosphere might delay global ozone

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continues, it could increase future global warming and impede ozone stratospheric recovery.

Extinction

Tyrrel Smith PHD TRW Space and Electronics Group, and Edwards Daniel, Pilson Environmental Management Branch, 1999, “Summary of the Impact of Launch Vehicle Exhaust and Deorbiting Space and Meteorite Debris on Stratospheric Ozone” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/ GetTRDoc?Location=U2anddoc=GetTRDoc.pdfandAD=ADA414306

The ozone layer is critical to life on Earth because it absorbs biologically damaging solar

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aquatic ecosystems also may occur (Martin 1998, WMO 1998).

Tournament: Shirley | Round: 5 | Opponent: Mary Wash LP  | Judge: Andrea Reed

2AC China Grid Add On

Nuclear expansion key to grid stability

Margaret Harding, president of 4Factor Consulting. She has worked in the nuclear industry for more than 30 years and advises clients on quality, regulatory, technical, and business issues within the nuclear industry, 2-8-2012, “Role of nuclear energy in creating smarter US grid networks,” Nuclear Energy Insider, http://analysis.nuclearenergyinsider.com/operations-maintenance/role-nuclear-energy-creating-smarter-us-grid-networks

Nuclear consultant, Margaret Harding, offers her insights into how smart grid technologies can

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anchor points in regional grid structures that can keep power delivery to consumers.

Grid vulnerability allow China to launch cyberattacks and invade Taiwan

Derene 9

(Glenn – Defense Analyst @ Popular Mechanics, “How Vulnerable is U.S. Infrastructure to a Major Cyber Attack?” October 1, 2009, http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military/4307521)

The next world war might not start with a bang, but with a blackout

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don't know," Lewis says. "And I don't like that answer."

Extinction

Straits Times (Singapore), June 25, 2000, No one gains in war over Taiwan

THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war escalating into a full

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should that come to pass, we would see the destruction of civilisation.