Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
1AC Trade
Contention 1 is trade
Recent US anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese Solar cell imports threaten to start an energy trade war
Rex-Kiss 8/17-12, Endre, green technology advocate and freelance copywriter in topics of sustainability and social media, “Are solar panels about to start a new trade war between China and the West?”, http://www.earthtimes.org/green-blogs/green-living/solar-panel-trade-war-china-west-17-Aug-12/
Tensions are always running high between Chinese and western manufacturers, but it seems those
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turns volatile it will be bad for the environment as well as business.

Solar barriers spillover internationally and across industries—destroys the economy and causes a new escalating trade war
Tucker 8/27/12, William, work has appeared in Harper’s, the Atlantic Monthly, the American Spectator, the Weekly Standard, National Review, Reason, the New Republic, Reader’s Digest, the Wall Street Journal, and many other publications, “Let’s Just Admit Solar Needs Help and Avoid Trade War”, http://www.nucleartownhall.com/blog/william-tucker-let%E2%80%99s-just-admit-solar-needs-help-and-avoid-trade-war/
Although the newspapers haven’t been paying much attention lately, the United States and China
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this will make for good old clean-and-green solar power.

The tariff makes Chinese reciprocation and global protectionism inevitable
Beebe 12, 4-28, Andrew, chief commercial officer of Suntech, “Inside a U.S.-China Solar Trade War”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303404704577309583348171396.html
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a ruling last week to raise
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solar-industry growth and to solve our planet's energy and environmental crisis.
An escalated U.S. China trade war results in economic conflicts and devastating protectionism
Wang and Li 11 (Jianhua and Yunlu—Xinhua news agency, citing Ni Feng, Vice President of the Institute of American Studies underthe Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Zhao Jinping, vice director of the Foreign Economic Department of the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council “China-US trade war no good for anyone”, October 13, 2011. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90780/7616581.html
A trade war between the United States and China, each of which is the
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and will even lead to political and military confrontations in some sensitive regions. 

Economic crisis independently causes nuclear war
Green and Schrage 9 [Michael J Green is Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Associate Professor at Georgetown University. Steven P Schrage is the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business and a former senior official with the US Trade Representative's Office, State Department and Ways and Means Committee, “It's not just the economy,”March 26 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html]
Facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, analysts at the World Bank
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demonstration effect of liberal norms we are urging China to embrace at home.  

International protectionism triggers resource power wars and terrorism that escalates to nuclear war
Panzner 8—25-year veteran of the markets who has worked for for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and J.P. Morgan Chase. New York Institute of Finance faculty member and a graduate of Columbia University. (Michael, Financial Armageddon, 136-8)
Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of finance and trade will inspire the United
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between Muslims and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.
Additionally, a US-China trade war independently escalates to military conflict
Landy 7 [Ben Landy, Director of Research and Strategy at the Atlantic Media Company, publisher of the Atlantic Monthly, National Journal, and Government Executive magazines.   Landy served in various research and project management positions at the Brookings Institution and Center for Strategic and International Studies, two leading public policy think tanks in Washington, D.C.  Ben holds a bachelor of arts degree from Yale University. April 3, 2007, http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/#comments,)
The greatest threat for the 21st century is that these economic flare-ups between
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–far more than increases in military budgets and anti-satellite tests.
Nuclear world war 3
Hunkovic 9 – American Military University [Lee J, 2009, “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America”, http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf]
A war between China, Taiwan and the United States has the potential to escalate
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outcome, therefore, other countries will not be considered in this study.
Most recent studies provide a direct connection between poor economic relations and military conflict
Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict
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such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.

Removing the tariff solves – market forces will correct any “dumping”
Gallaghers 12, 5-22, Kelly and Kevin, Kelly Sims Gallagher is associate professor of energy and environmental policy at The Fletcher School, Tufts University. Kevin P. Gallagher is associate professor of international relations at Boston University, “Guest post: Blinded by the (solar) light”, http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/05/22/guest-post-blinded-by-the-solar-light/?catid=491andSID=google#axzz1vhhMeBo3
The Obama Administration’s preliminary decision to impose a 31 per cent tariff on solar panels
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Administration should applaud it and do its part to correct market distortions too.

1AC Solar Industry
Contention 2 is the Solar Industry

Scenario 1 is Blackouts

Solar tariffs will destroy the installation industry which shatters the overall solar market
Pierobon 12, 2-29, James, former Chief Energy Writer and Political Correspondent at the Houston Chronicle , “the case against a tariff on imported Chinese solar panels”, http://theenergycollective.com/jimpierobon/77861/guest-opinion-jigar-shah-makes-case-against-tariff-imported-chinese-solar-panels
Last October the US subsidiary of German-based SolarWorld, a manufacturer of polysilicon
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is a terrible idea — for American jobs, prosperity and the environment.”

The tariff halts US solar transition by preventing cost-competitiveness
Jabusch 5/18/12 [Garvin Jabusch, cofounder and chief investment officer of Green Alpha Advisors and co-manager of the Green Alpha Next Economy Index. Jabusch was previously Director of Forward Sustainable Investments, a business unit of Forward Management, and Vice President, Strategic Services at Morgan Stanley. “Tariffs on Chinese Solar Are Bad for Us All,” http://sierraclub.typepad.com/gaa/2012/05/tariffs-on-chinese-solar-are-bad-for-us-all.html]
The United States Department of Commerce yesterday, and of all things at the behest
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we just ceded the advantage in getting Saudi’s solar business to Chinese firms. 

Heat waves are already threatening prolonged blackouts in US cities – these will only get more frequent and more intense
Stone 8/8/12 [Brian Stone, Assistant Professor in the City and Regional Planning Program at the Georgia Institute of Technology, “Urban Heat Islands and Climate Change: Planning for Extreme Heat in Cities,” http://www.epa.gov/hiri/resources/transcripts/8_aug_2012-webcasttranscript-stone.pdf]
Most critical is your logical infrastructure. In 2003, the same year as the
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prolonged blackout in the major U.S. cities is certainly increasing.

Bioterror attack coming by 2013
Fox News 8 (Fox News, “Nuclear or Bioterror Attack on U.S. Likely by 2013, Panel Warns”, 12-2-08, http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,459927,00.html)
Terrorists are likely to attack the United States using nuclear or biological weapons before 2013
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destruction today, all roads would intersect in Pakistan," the report states. 

An unchecked bioterror attack causes extinction
Steinbruner, 97 — Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution (John, Foreign Policy, 12/22, p. nexis)
More than 70 years later, revulsion persists and the Geneva Protocol has been strengthened
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for a global contagion of this sort but not necessarily its outer limit.   

Minimizing death toll key—large casualties ensure retaliation and escalation to nuclear war.
Conley 3 [Lt Col Harry W. is chief of the Systems Analysis Branch, Directorate of Requirements, Headquarters Air Combat Command (ACC), Langley AFB, Virginia. Air and Space Power Journal) http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj03/spr03/conley.html]
Continues…The number of American casualties suffered due to a WMD attack may well
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be more than just a possibility, whatever promises had been made.”48

Blackouts undermine bioterror response and disease containment efforts that uniquely minimize mortality rates
Kelly and Osterholm 08 [Nicholas S. Kelley, Research assistant with The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy(CIDRAP) Business Source and a doctoral student in the Divison of Environmental Health Sciences at the University of Minnesota's School of Public Health, and Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, director of the NIH‐supported Center of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance within CIDRAP, a professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, University of Minnesota. Written in their report “Pandemic Influenza, Electricity, and the Coal Supply Chain” http://www.sovrn.com/PDF/pubs_CIDRAP_Coal_Report.pdf]
When one considers public health preparedness, the availability of electricity generally is not considered
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typically operate in the background—unless a breakdown in the infrastructure occurs.

Unchecked disease spread independently causes extinction
Yu 9 — Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Science (Victoria, Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate, 22 May 2009, http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate)
A pandemic will kill off all humans. In the past, humans have indeed
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could only infect birds — into a human-viable strain (10).

Expanded solar energy makes heat wave blackouts impossible
Perez et al 11 [Richard Perez, Research Professor, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, SUNY; Ken Zweibel, director of the GW Solar Institute at George Washington University; Thomas Hoff,  Founder of Clean Power Research and President of its Research and Consulting Group; “Solar power generation in the US: Too expensive, or a bargain?” Energy Policy Volume 39, Issue 11, November 2011, Pages 7290–7297]
Solar generators, distributed PV in particular, are not available at will,2
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2010), representing a deployment potential of nearly 375 GW in the US.

Scenario 2 is Price Spikes
Natural gas prices are low but future volatility is inevitable
Real Clear Energy 5/14/12 [Real Clear Energy Editors, “Natural Gas Prices Have Become More Volatile,” http://www.realclearenergy.org/charticles/2012/05/14/the_2000s_were_a_volatile_decade_for_natural_gas_prices.html]
It is easy to forget how volatile natural gas markets have become and that the
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becomes more central to our economy, rapid price changes become more likely.

Price volatility wrecks the fertilizer industry
IECA 3 [Industrial Energy Consumers of America, nonprofit organization created to promote the interests of manufacturing companies for which the availability, use and cost of energy, power or feedstock play a significant role in their ability to compete, July 22 2003, “IMPACT OF THE U.S. NATURAL GAS CRISIS ON THE NORTH AMERICAN NITROGEN FERTILIZER INDUSTRY,” http://www.ieca-us.com/wp-content/uploads/072203Fertilizerbriefing.pdf]
High natural gas prices present the most serious threat to the fertilizer sector and to
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must enact policies that stabilize the supply/demand balance for natural gas.

Food supply is on the brink now—the fertilizer industry is key to prevent a crisis
FI 9 [Fertilizer Institute, Trade Group representing the fertilizer industry, “The U.S. Fertilizer Industry and Climate Change Policy,” April 2 2009, http://www.kochfertilizer.com/pdf/TFI2009ClimateChange.pdf]
Fertilizer nutrients – nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium – are all naturally occurring elements that
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disaster or substandard world harvest away from a full-scale food crisis.

Escalating food instability causes extinction—US production is key
Lugar 2k | Chairman of the Senator Foreign Relations Committee and Member/Former Chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee (Richard, a US Senator from Indiana, is Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and a member and former chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee. “calls for a new green revolution to combat global warming and reduce world instability,” pg online @ http://www.unep.org/OurPlanet/imgversn/143/lugar.html)
In a world confronted by global terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East, burgeoning
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in the survival of billions of people and the health of our planet. 

Affordable solar power acts as a hedge against natural gas price spikes – ensures stability for industry
Powerfin Partners 11 [Powerfin Partners is a manager of institutional funds for solar projects in North America, with meaningful experience in energy capital markets, legal and regulatory matters, and renewable engineering, “Why the Solar Industry Lacks Pricing Power,” December 20, 2011, http://www.powerfinpartners.com/new_site/pdf/Why%20the%20Solar%20Industry%20Lacks%20Pricing%20Power%20122011.pdf]
While myriad uncertainties surround the future of natural gas pricing, what is certain is
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a portion of your budget with a long-lived asset like solar.

Removing the tariff increases access to Chinese PV modules which are key to solar expansion
Berkman et al 12 [Dr. Mark P. Berkman, Ph.D. in Public Policy Analysis, expert in applied microeconomics and principal at the Brattle Group; Dr. Lisa J. Cameron, Ph.D. in Economics and Senior Consultant for the Brattle Group; Judy Chang, economist with expertise in the analysis of electricity power markets and principal at the Brattle Group; “The Employment Impacts of Proposed Tariffs on Chinese Manufactured Photovoltaic Cells and Modules,” January 30 2012, http://coalition4affordablesolar.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/TBG_Solar-Trade-Impact-Report.pdf]
Average module prices in the U.S. are largely determined by Chinese imports
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expected to have a larger relative impact on the price of utility systems.

1AC Clean Tech
The solar tariff disputes undermines broader US-China clean-energy cooperation
AP 5/19/12 [“Ruling adds to China trade tension: POSSIBLE U.S. TARIFFS ON SOLAR-PANEL IMPORTS MAY THREATEN CLEAN ENERGY COOPERATION,” http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ruling-adds-to-china-trade-tension/article_c7071e82-78b7-5d95-b943-a8c6e5cc93de.html]
POSSIBLE U.S. TARIFFS ON SOLAR-PANEL IMPORTS MAY THREATEN CLEAN ENERGY
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trade probe have warned China might retaliate against U.S. suppliers.

Clean-energy cooperation causes effective green-tech diffusion
Lin 11 [Justin Yifu Lin, Former World Bank Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, “China, the US and clean energy cooperation,” Jan 21 2011, http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/china-the-us-and-clean-energy-cooperation]
Second, there are also major long-term global benefits from clean energy cooperation
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planet’s resources and safeguard future generations from the damaging effects of climate change.

The market cooperation creates is necessary to continued innovation in green-tech that solves warming
Woetzel 9 [Dr. Jonathan Woetzel, Ph.D. in political science from USC, Director in McKinsey and Company’s Greater China Office, August 2009, “China and the US: The potential of a clean-tech partnership,”  http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/China_and_the_US_The_potential_of_a_clean-tech_partnership_2419]
China and the United States, the world’s dominant producers of carbon emissions, have
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all of these technologies, they cannot achieve separately what they could jointly.

Additionally the solar issue spills over to all forms of environment cooperation—it undermines technical advancement and undermines the direction of leadership set up by the Durban platform
Barbier 12 (Edward B—the John S. Bugas Professor of Economics, University of Wyoming, “Can the US and China Cooperate over Climate and Clean Energy?”, May 28, 2012, http://chinausfocus.com/energy-environment/can-the-us-and-china-cooperate-over-climate-and-clean-energy/)
One of the few bright spots in recent international negotiations to replace the expiring 1997
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undermines the fragile beginnings of US and China cooperation over global climate change.

The Durban Platform provides a new opportunity to solve global climate change—even if it fails to stop warming, it substantially mitigates CO2 emissions
Robert N. Stavins 12 is the Albert Pratt Professor of Business and Government, Director of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program, and Chairman of the Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Group, “The Platform Opens a Window: An Unambiguous Consequence of the Durban Climate Talks”, 1-1, http://www.robertstavinsblog.org/2012/01/01/the-platform-opens-a-window-an-unambiguous-consequence-of-the-durban-climate-talks/

Finally, We Arrive in Durban (2011)¶ The third of the three outcomes
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Climate Agreements is prepared to contribute to this effort. Please stay tuned.

Warming is real, anthropogenic and causes extinction
Flournoy 12 -- Citing Feng Hsu, PhD NASA Scientist @ the Goddard Space Flight
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, Springer Briefs in Space Development, Book, p. 10-11
In the Online Journal of Space Communication , Dr. Feng Hsu, a  NASA
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simply too high for us to take any chances” (Hsu 2010 ) 

Plan Text
The United States federal government should lower antidumping tariffs on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells from the People’s Republic of China.

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
2AC---T Energy Production
We meet—plan incentivizes the direct installation of panels for energy production

Counter-interpretation—energy production is extraction, conversion, and distribution—the aff meets conversion and distribution
Koplow 4 Doug Koplow is the founder of Earth Track in Cambridge, MA. He has worked on natural resource subsidy issues for 20 years, primarily in the energy sector "Subsidies to Energy Industries" Encyclopedia of Energy Vol 5 2004www.earthtrack.net/files/Energy%20Encyclopedia,%20wv.pdf
3. SUBSIDIES THROUGH THE FUEL CYCLE¶ Because no two fuel cycles are exactly
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transport include road, rail, water, pipelines, and transmission lines.

Financial incentives for production include eliminating tariffs for the equipment used
RWI 8 Revenue Watch Institute is a non-profit policy institute and grantmaking organization that promotes the effective, transparent and accountable management of oil, gas and mineral resources for the public good, “Extractive Industries” http://archive-2011.revenuewatch.org/our-work/countries/indonesia/extractive-industries
As the only OPEC country that is a net importer of oil, Indonesia is
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and the peak of 1.69 b/d in 1977.3

A restriction on energy production is anything that directly makes it more difficult or expensive
LVM Institute 96, Ludwig Von Mises Institute Original Book by Ludwig Von Mises, Austrian Economist in 1940. Evidence is cut from fourth edition copyright Bettina B. Greaves, “Human Action” http://mises.org/pdf/humanaction/pdf/ha_29.pdf
Restriction of production means that the government either forbids or makes more difficult or more
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it is lower. It does not increase production; it curtails it.

Prefer it
Limits—only allows affs that are direct parts of the production process—limits out all affs that aren’t intrinsic to electricity or heat generation
Predictability—Prefer inclusive rather than exclusive definitions that set a predictable scope of discussion

Good is good enough—our interpretation provides predictable limits and fair ground, satisfying the purpose of T as a voter. 

Elections
Romney won’t strike—4 reasons
Goldberg 7/26 (Jeffrey, A former Washington correspondent and Middle East correspondent for the New Yorker, Goldberg began his career at the Washington Post. He later wrote a column for the Jerusalem Post; covered the Mafia for New York Magazine; and wrote for several years for the New York Times Magazine. He has been public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and a Fellow of the Jerusalem Foundation, “In Israel-Iran Conflict, Don’t Rely on Romney”, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-26/in-israel-iran-conflict-don-t-rely-on-romney.html)
On the matter of Iran, however, Netanyahu would be wrong to root for
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do better in convincing allies that a strike against Iran is a necessity.

Obama will lose---best economic predictors
Skousen 9/11 Mark, Investment U Research, 2012, "Who Will Win in November? Economists Make Shocking Prediction", www.investmentu.com/2012/September/who-will-win-in-november.html
Will President Obama win re-election, or will Governor Romney occupy the White
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“standard error,” so the election is “too close to call.”

Plan key to appease environmentalists
Higgins 12 (sean—washington examiner, “Are environmentalists embracing free trade?”, July 31, 2012, http://washingtonexaminer.com/are-environmentalists-embracing-free-trade/article/2503642#.UEUiBsFlQrM)
They're not quoting free market economists Friedrich Hayek or Milton Friedman yet, but some
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long run, they may undercut clean energy and low carbon policies globally."

They’re key
Bloomberg 11 Mark Drajem and Jim Efstathiou Jr. “Green Vote Cools Toward Obama Risking A Replay Of Gore-Nader,” Aug 30, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-31/green-vote-cools-to-obama-over-pipeline-concerns.html
Democratic Vice President Al Gore paid a price in his 2000 presidential campaign for the
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not going to be re- elected. It’s as simple as that.”

Tariff cuts thousands of jobs Obama supports
David Nicklaus 12, who is the business columnist for the Post-Dispatch, 6/3, “Solar Panel Tariff Could backfire on US” http://www.stltoday.com/business/columns/david-nicklaus/solar-panel-tariff-could-backfire-on-u-s/article_eca6a6e4-ac01-11e1-9f82-0019bb30f31a.html
The Obama administration likes to promote renewable energy, and it likes to take a
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makes solar panels in the U.S. and six other companies.

Jobs will determine the election
Silver 12 Nate is chief pollster for New York Times’ 538 election polling center. Regarded as top-level pollster based on distinct mathematical models. “Obama’s Magic Number May Be 150,000 Jobs Per Month,” Feb 3, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/04/business/economy/obamas-magic-number-may-be-150000-jobs-per-month.html
No economic indicator is a political holy grail. The American economy is a hard
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produces a break-even number of 151,000 jobs a month.

2AC-"Should" PIC
Perm do both – reality can change language – the perm allows the transformation of meaning
Kidner 2K (David W, Nature and Psyche: Radical Environmentalism and the Politics of Subjectivity, pg 26-27)
In the absence of a language that is sufficiently resonant with the natural world,
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keep alive those ecological scenarios that do exceed such industrialized views of nature.

Language isn’t predetermined – the CP only masks the function of power
Butler 1 (Judith, Speech Acts Politically, Deconstruction: a Reader, pg 256-257)
When anti-intellectualism becomes the counter to anti-censorship, and academic language
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order precisely to contest what has become sedimented in and as the ordinary.

Reducing politics to the discursive devastates opposition to material structures of oppression.
Taft-Kaufman 95 (Jill, PF Speech—Central Michigan, “OTHER WAYS: POSTMODERNISM AND PERFORMATIVE PRAXIS”, Southern Communication Journal v60n3 (Spring 1995) 225-6)
To the postmodernist, then, real objects have vanished. So, too,
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political agendas, institutions, agencies, and the budgets that fuel them.

2AC-Cap K
Short-term market mechanisms are the only solution to environmental destruction-the alt is ideological blindness which justifies the status quo
Bryant 12—professor of philosophy at Collin College (Levi, We’ll Never Do Better Than a Politician: Climate Change and Purity, 5/11/12, http://larvalsubjects.wordpress.com/2012/05/11/well-never-do-better-than-a-politician-climate-change-and-purity/)
Somewhere or other Latour makes the remark that we’ll never do better than a politician
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there’s no way around this, and we do need to act now.

Solar is key to transition away from capitalism – alternative fails by itself
Yanity 4 Brian, student at Columbia University, 6/18/04 “Socialism and the Energy Question, Upside Down World”¶ http://upsidedownworld.org/energyquestionthree.htm
It is the material world that determines what is possible for human beings. A
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preparing the future, and the future will be powered by renewable energy.

South-to-South cooperation via globalization will transform global politics – it’s enabling a new process of sharing knowledge that transcends imperialism and saves millions from deprivation and death
George Mark Malloch-Brown, Baron Malloch-Brown, KCMG, PC former Minister of State in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office of the British government with responsibility for Africa, Asia and the United NationsPreviously he was briefly United Nations Deputy Secretary-General 2007 http://www.ipsnews.net/focus/tv_g77/viewstory.asp?idn=276
Despite these early political aspirations, many practical obstacles bedeviled developing countries, which included
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free millions form poverty, increase school enrolments, and combat deadly diseases.

The alternative is centralized power—causes totalitarianism and genocide
Meltzer 11 (Allan H, Professor of Political Economy at Carnegie Mellon, “Why Capitalism?”, 1/1, http://repository.cmu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1581&context=tepper&sei-redir=1)
The Templeton Foundation recently ran an advertisement reporting the answers several prominent intellectuals gave to
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visions become totalitarian. All deviations from the utopian ideal must be prevented. 

2AC-Oil DA
Oil price collapse inev
Paikin 12 Zach Paikin is a columnist for Canada's iPolitics and contributes research on international affairs to several Washington-based think tanks and institutes, April 11, 2012, “Coping in an increasingly competitive
global economy”, http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/04/11/zach-paikin-coping-with-less-revenues-in-an-increasingly-competitive-global-economy/
It gets worse. The price of oil is about to collapse due to the
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rate of all natural gas exports from the Middle East and North Africa.

US not key to prices
Cleveland 10 – Professor of Geography and Environment at Boston University, Ph.D. in Geography from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (Cutler, 17 June 2010, “The Myth of Energy Independence,” http://www.theenergywatch.com/2010/06/17/the-myth-of-energy-independence/)
Increased U.S. production would have little impact on the level or volatility
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made in the U.S. have little influence on this process.

Russian political instability inev
Yenikeyeff 12 Dr. Shamil Yenikeyeff is a Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and Senior Associate Member at the Russian and Eurasian Studies Centre, May 23, 2012, “Big business under threat in Putin’s Russia?”, http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/shamil-yenikeyeff/big-business-under-threat-in-putin%E2%80%99s-russia
The inauguration of a new president might be expected to signal a restoration of political
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establishment are likely to play the main role in facilitating Putin’s departure and succession

 
Oil no longer key to Russian econ
Devyatov 11 – URALSIB Capital's chief economist (15 June 2011, Alexey, Reduced Impact of Oil on Russian Economic Growth, http://www.bne.eu/story2735/Reduced_Impact_of_Oil_on_Russian_Economic_Growth)
The recent rally in oil prices has shown that the impact of high oil prices
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, as both state officials and the private sector share the same concerns. 

Low prices key to stop corruption
Åslund 8 Anders Åslund is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University, July 2008, “An Assessment of Putin's Economic Policy”, http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/paper.cfm?ResearchID=974
In 2004, Foreign Affairs published a seminal article by Andrei Shleifer and Daniel Treisman
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can no longer afford this corruption that contributes to the current inflation crisis. 

Turns their impact
Goodby 2 (James E., Former Fellow – US Institute of Peace, and Piet Buwalda and Dmitriĭ Trenin, A Strategy for Stable Peace: Toward a Euroatlantic Security Community, p. 27-29)
A decade after the Cold war was solemnly buried; there is still no stable
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factors work toward the restoration of some form of authoritarian and paternalistic rule.

Tournament: GSU | Round: 1 | Opponent:  | Judge: 

1AC Trade

Contention 1 is Trade

Recent US anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese Solar cell imports will be upheld and negatively impact trade relations

Zhang 9-18-12, Yuwei, China Daily US, “Obama steps up trade fight with China over autos”, http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2012-09/18/content_15765633.htm

This year, the US also ordered anti-dumping and countervailing duties against Chinese

AND

and orders will be issued" for imposing the duties," Perry added.

China will retaliate to US tariff – causes escalation

Wesoff 12 Eric, Senior Analyst, Greentech Media, 7/20, “China Retaliates in Solar Trade War” http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/china-retaliates-in-solar-trade-war/

But the impact of anti-dumping rulings on American polysilicon firms, the makers

AND

the semiconductor industry, another industry in which Chinese companies lags American manufacturers.”

Solar barriers spillover internationally and across industries—destroys the economy and causes a new escalating trade war

Tucker 8/27/12, William, work has appeared in Harper’s, the Atlantic Monthly, the American Spectator, the Weekly Standard, National Review, Reason, the New Republic, Reader’s Digest, the Wall Street Journal, and many other publications, “Let’s Just Admit Solar Needs Help and Avoid Trade War”, http://www.nucleartownhall.com/blog/william-tucker-let%E2%80%99s-just-admit-solar-needs-help-and-avoid-trade-war/

Although the newspapers haven’t been paying much attention lately, the United States and China

AND

this will make for good old clean-and-green solar power.

The tariff makes Chinese reciprocation and global protectionism inevitable

Beebe 12, 4-28, Andrew, chief commercial officer of Suntech, “Inside a U.S.-China Solar Trade War”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303404704577309583348171396.html

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a ruling last week to raise

AND

solar-industry growth and to solve our planet's energy and environmental crisis.

An escalated U.S. China trade war results in economic conflicts and devastating protectionism

Wang and Li 11 (Jianhua and Yunlu—Xinhua news agency, citing Ni Feng, Vice President of the Institute of American Studies underthe Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Zhao Jinping, vice director of the Foreign Economic Department of the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council “China-US trade war no good for anyone”, October 13, 2011. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90780/7616581.html

A trade war between the United States and China, each of which is the

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and will even lead to political and military confrontations in some sensitive regions.

Economic crisis independently causes nuclear war

Green and Schrage 9 [Michael J Green is Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Associate Professor at Georgetown University. Steven P Schrage is the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business and a former senior official with the US Trade Representative's Office, State Department and Ways and Means Committee, “It's not just the economy,”March 26 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html]

Facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, analysts at the World Bank

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demonstration effect of liberal norms we are urging China to embrace at home.

International protectionism triggers resource power wars and terrorism that escalates to nuclear war

Panzner 8—25-year veteran of the markets who has worked for for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and J.P. Morgan Chase. New York Institute of Finance faculty member and a graduate of Columbia University. (Michael, Financial Armageddon, 136-8)

Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of finance and trade will inspire the United

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between Muslims and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.

Additionally, a US-China trade war independently escalates to military conflict

Landy 7 [Ben Landy, Director of Research and Strategy at the Atlantic Media Company, publisher of the Atlantic Monthly, National Journal, and Government Executive magazines. Landy served in various research and project management positions at the Brookings Institution and Center for Strategic and International Studies, two leading public policy think tanks in Washington, D.C. Ben holds a bachelor of arts degree from Yale University. April 3, 2007, http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/#comments,)

The greatest threat for the 21st century is that these economic flare-ups between

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–far more than increases in military budgets and anti-satellite tests.

Nuclear world war 3

Hunkovic 9 – American Military University [Lee J, 2009, “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America”, http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf]

A war between China, Taiwan and the United States has the potential to escalate

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outcome, therefore, other countries will not be considered in this study.

Most recent studies provide a direct connection between poor economic relations and military conflict

Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict

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such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.

Removing the tariff solves – market forces will correct any “dumping”

Gallaghers 12, 5-22, Kelly and Kevin, Kelly Sims Gallagher is associate professor of energy and environmental policy at The Fletcher School, Tufts University. Kevin P. Gallagher is associate professor of international relations at Boston University, “Guest post: Blinded by the (solar) light”, http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/05/22/guest-post-blinded-by-the-solar-light/?catid=491andSID=google#axzz1vhhMeBo3

The Obama Administration’s preliminary decision to impose a 31 per cent tariff on solar panels

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Administration should applaud it and do its part to correct market distortions too.

1AC Solar Industry

Contention 2 is the Solar Industry

Scenario 1 is Blackouts

Solar tariffs will destroy the installation industry which shatters the overall solar market

Pierobon 12, 2-29, James, former Chief Energy Writer and Political Correspondent at the Houston Chronicle , “the case against a tariff on imported Chinese solar panels”, http://theenergycollective.com/jimpierobon/77861/guest-opinion-jigar-shah-makes-case-against-tariff-imported-chinese-solar-panels

Last October the US subsidiary of German-based SolarWorld, a manufacturer of polysilicon

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is a terrible idea — for American jobs, prosperity and the environment.”

The tariff halts US solar transition by preventing cost-competitiveness

Jabusch 5/18/12 [Garvin Jabusch, cofounder and chief investment officer of Green Alpha Advisors and co-manager of the Green Alpha Next Economy Index. Jabusch was previously Director of Forward Sustainable Investments, a business unit of Forward Management, and Vice President, Strategic Services at Morgan Stanley. “Tariffs on Chinese Solar Are Bad for Us All,” http://sierraclub.typepad.com/gaa/2012/05/tariffs-on-chinese-solar-are-bad-for-us-all.html]

The United States Department of Commerce yesterday, and of all things at the behest

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we just ceded the advantage in getting Saudi’s solar business to Chinese firms.

Heat waves are already threatening prolonged blackouts in US cities – these will only get more frequent and more intense

Stone 8/8/12 [Brian Stone, Assistant Professor in the City and Regional Planning Program at the Georgia Institute of Technology, “Urban Heat Islands and Climate Change: Planning for Extreme Heat in Cities,” http://www.epa.gov/hiri/resources/transcripts/8_aug_2012-webcasttranscript-stone.pdf]

Most critical is your logical infrastructure. In 2003, the same year as the

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prolonged blackout in the major U.S. cities is certainly increasing.

Bioterror attack coming by 2013

Fox News 8 (Fox News, “Nuclear or Bioterror Attack on U.S. Likely by 2013, Panel Warns”, 12-2-08, http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,459927,00.html)

Terrorists are likely to attack the United States using nuclear or biological weapons before 2013

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destruction today, all roads would intersect in Pakistan," the report states.

An unchecked bioterror attack causes extinction

Steinbruner, 97 — Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution (John, Foreign Policy, 12/22, p. nexis)

More than 70 years later, revulsion persists and the Geneva Protocol has been strengthened

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for a global contagion of this sort but not necessarily its outer limit.  

Minimizing death toll key—large casualties ensure retaliation and escalation to nuclear war.

Conley 3 [Lt Col Harry W. is chief of the Systems Analysis Branch, Directorate of Requirements, Headquarters Air Combat Command (ACC), Langley AFB, Virginia. Air and Space Power Journal) http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj03/spr03/conley.html]

Continues…The number of American casualties suffered due to a WMD attack may well

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be more than just a possibility, whatever promises had been made.”48

Blackouts undermine bioterror response and disease containment efforts that uniquely minimize mortality rates

Kelly and Osterholm 08 [Nicholas S. Kelley, Research assistant with The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy(CIDRAP) Business Source and a doctoral student in the Divison of Environmental Health Sciences at the University of Minnesota's School of Public Health, and Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, director of the NIH‐supported Center of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance within CIDRAP, a professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, University of Minnesota. Written in their report “Pandemic Influenza, Electricity, and the Coal Supply Chain” http://www.sovrn.com/PDF/pubs_CIDRAP_Coal_Report.pdf]

When one considers public health preparedness, the availability of electricity generally is not considered

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typically operate in the background—unless a breakdown in the infrastructure occurs.

Unchecked disease spread independently causes extinction

Yu 9 — Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Science (Victoria, Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate, 22 May 2009, http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate)

A pandemic will kill off all humans. In the past, humans have indeed

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could only infect birds — into a human-viable strain (10).

Expanded solar energy makes heat wave blackouts impossible

Perez et al 11 [Richard Perez, Research Professor, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, SUNY; Ken Zweibel, director of the GW Solar Institute at George Washington University; Thomas Hoff, Founder of Clean Power Research and President of its Research and Consulting Group; “Solar power generation in the US: Too expensive, or a bargain?” Energy Policy Volume 39, Issue 11, November 2011, Pages 7290–7297]

Solar generators, distributed PV in particular, are not available at will,2

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2010), representing a deployment potential of nearly 375 GW in the US.

Scenario 2 is Price Spikes

Natural gas prices are low but future volatility is inevitable

RCE 5/14/12 [Real Clear Energy Editors, “Natural Gas Prices Have Become More Volatile,” http://www.realclearenergy.org/charticles/2012/05/14/the_2000s_were_a_volatile_decade_for_natural_gas_prices.html]

It is easy to forget how volatile natural gas markets have become and that the

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becomes more central to our economy, rapid price changes become more likely.

Price volatility wrecks the fertilizer industry

IECA 3 [Industrial Energy Consumers of America, nonprofit organization created to promote the interests of manufacturing companies for which the availability, use and cost of energy, power or feedstock play a significant role in their ability to compete, July 22 2003, “IMPACT OF THE U.S. NATURAL GAS CRISIS ON THE NORTH AMERICAN NITROGEN FERTILIZER INDUSTRY,” http://www.ieca-us.com/wp-content/uploads/072203Fertilizerbriefing.pdf]

High natural gas prices present the most serious threat to the fertilizer sector and to

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must enact policies that stabilize the supply/demand balance for natural gas.

Food supply is on the brink now—the fertilizer industry is key to prevent a crisis

FI 9 [Fertilizer Institute, Trade Group representing the fertilizer industry, “The U.S. Fertilizer Industry and Climate Change Policy,” April 2 2009, http://www.kochfertilizer.com/pdf/TFI2009ClimateChange.pdf]

Fertilizer nutrients – nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium – are all naturally occurring elements that

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disaster or substandard world harvest away from a full-scale food crisis.

Escalating food instability causes extinction—US production is key

Lugar 2k | Chairman of the Senator Foreign Relations Committee and Member/Former Chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee (Richard, a US Senator from Indiana, is Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and a member and former chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee. “calls for a new green revolution to combat global warming and reduce world instability,” pg online @ http://www.unep.org/OurPlanet/imgversn/143/lugar.html)

In a world confronted by global terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East, burgeoning

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in the survival of billions of people and the health of our planet.

Affordable solar power acts as a hedge against natural gas price spikes – ensures stability for industry

Powerfin Partners 11 [Powerfin Partners is a manager of institutional funds for solar projects in North America, with meaningful experience in energy capital markets, legal and regulatory matters, and renewable engineering, “Why the Solar Industry Lacks Pricing Power,” December 20, 2011, http://www.powerfinpartners.com/new_site/pdf/Why%20the%20Solar%20Industry%20Lacks%20Pricing%20Power%20122011.pdf]

While myriad uncertainties surround the future of natural gas pricing, what is certain is

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a portion of your budget with a long-lived asset like solar.

Removing the tariff increases access to Chinese PV modules which are key to solar expansion

Berkman et al 12 [Dr. Mark P. Berkman, Ph.D. in Public Policy Analysis, expert in applied microeconomics and principal at the Brattle Group; Dr. Lisa J. Cameron, Ph.D. in Economics and Senior Consultant for the Brattle Group; Judy Chang, economist with expertise in the analysis of electricity power markets and principal at the Brattle Group; “The Employment Impacts of Proposed Tariffs on Chinese Manufactured Photovoltaic Cells and Modules,” January 30 2012, http://coalition4affordablesolar.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/TBG_Solar-Trade-Impact-Report.pdf]

Average module prices in the U.S. are largely determined by Chinese imports

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expected to have a larger relative impact on the price of utility systems.

Plan Text

The United States federal government should lower antidumping tariffs on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells from the People’s Republic of China.

1AC Clean Tech

Contention 3 is Clean Tech Cooperation

The solar tariff disputes undermines broader US-China clean-energy cooperation

AP 5/19/12 [“Ruling adds to China trade tension: POSSIBLE U.S. TARIFFS ON SOLAR-PANEL IMPORTS MAY THREATEN CLEAN ENERGY COOPERATION,” http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ruling-adds-to-china-trade-tension/article_c7071e82-78b7-5d95-b943-a8c6e5cc93de.html]

POSSIBLE U.S. TARIFFS ON SOLAR-PANEL IMPORTS MAY THREATEN CLEAN ENERGY

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trade probe have warned China might retaliate against U.S. suppliers.

Clean-energy cooperation causes effective green-tech diffusion

Lin 11 [Justin Yifu Lin, Former World Bank Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, “China, the US and clean energy cooperation,” Jan 21 2011, http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/china-the-us-and-clean-energy-cooperation]

Second, there are also major long-term global benefits from clean energy cooperation

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planet’s resources and safeguard future generations from the damaging effects of climate change.

The market cooperation creates is necessary to continued innovation in green-tech that solves warming

Woetzel 9 [Dr. Jonathan Woetzel, Ph.D. in political science from USC, Director in McKinsey and Company’s Greater China Office, August 2009, “China and the US: The potential of a clean-tech partnership,” http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/China_and_the_US_The_potential_of_a_clean-tech_partnership_2419]

China and the United States, the world’s dominant producers of carbon emissions, have

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all of these technologies, they cannot achieve separately what they could jointly.

Additionally the solar issue spills over to all forms of environment cooperation—it undermines technical advancement and undermines the direction of leadership set up by the Durban platform

Barbier 12 (Edward B—the John S. Bugas Professor of Economics, University of Wyoming, “Can the US and China Cooperate over Climate and Clean Energy?”, May 28, 2012, http://chinausfocus.com/energy-environment/can-the-us-and-china-cooperate-over-climate-and-clean-energy/)

One of the few bright spots in recent international negotiations to replace the expiring 1997

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undermines the fragile beginnings of US and China cooperation over global climate change.

The Durban Platform provides a new opportunity to solve global climate change—even if it fails to stop warming, it substantially mitigates CO2 emissions

Robert N. Stavins 12 is the Albert Pratt Professor of Business and Government, Director of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program, and Chairman of the Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Group, “The Platform Opens a Window: An Unambiguous Consequence of the Durban Climate Talks”, 1-1, http://www.robertstavinsblog.org/2012/01/01/the-platform-opens-a-window-an-unambiguous-consequence-of-the-durban-climate-talks/

Finally, We Arrive in Durban (2011)¶ The third of the three outcomes

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Climate Agreements is prepared to contribute to this effort. Please stay tuned.

Warming is real, anthropogenic and causes extinction

Flournoy 12 -- Citing Feng Hsu, PhD NASA Scientist @ the Goddard Space Flight

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, Springer Briefs in Space Development, Book, p. 10-11

In the Online Journal of Space Communication , Dr. Feng Hsu, a  NASA

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simply too high for us to take any chances” (Hsu 2010 ) 

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
Coal Industry Scenario
Scenario 2 is Price Spikes
Natural gas prices are low but future volatility is inevitable
RCE 5/14/12 Real Clear Energy Editors, “Natural Gas Prices Have Become More Volatile,” http://www.realclearenergy.org/charticles/2012/05/14/the_2000s_were_a_volatile_decade_for_natural_gas_prices.html
It is easy to forget how volatile natural gas markets have become and that the
AND
becomes more central to our economy, rapid price changes become more likely.

Natural gas spikes revitalize the coal industry
Rucker 9-12-12, Patrick, “Coal power to drive U.S. emissions higher next year: report”, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/12/us-usa-coal-emissions-idUSBRE88B1IM20120912
(Reuters) - U.S. fossil fuel emissions will rise 2.
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will go dark by the end of 2016, according to the EIA.

Crushes the water supply, ecosystems, and causes air pollution
Bosselman 7, Fred, Professor of Law Emeritus, Chicago-Kent College of Law, “The new power generation: environmental law and electricity innovation: colloquium article: the ecological advantages of nuclear power”, New York University Environmental Law Journal, lexis
The Ecological Impacts of Every Stage of the Use of Coal Are Disastrous¶ ¶
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technological innovations that will reduce these impacts within the next decade are negligible.

Air pollution causes extinction
Driesen 3 (David, Associate Professor – Syracuse Univeristy Law, 10 Buff. Envt'l. L.J. 25, Fall/Spring, Lexis)
Air pollution can make life unsustainable by harming the ecosystem upon which all life depends
AND
health and the environment, air quality implicates both of these concerns. 5

Ecosystem loss causes extinction
Science Daily 11 ("Biodiversity Key to Earth's Life-Support Functions in a Changing World,"  Cites Albert-Ludwigs-Universitat Freiburg, August 11, www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110811084513.htm)
The biological diversity of organisms on Earth is not just something we enjoy when taking
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diversity is thus a crucial factor in maintaining Earth's life-support functions.

US water scarcity causes extinction
NYT 12, A. O. SCOTT, May 3, 2012 “When There Really Is Not a Drop to Drink,” http://movies.nytimes.com/2012/05/04/movies/last-call-at-the-oasis-a-documentary-about-water-supplies.html
Jay Famiglietti, one of a handful of expert witnesses in Jessica Yu’s “Last
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of an apocalypse delivered by a reasonable person in friendly, conversational tones.

Tournament: OLC | Round: 1 | Opponent:  | Judge:
Off 

Energy production is the generation of power from raw materials – excludes extraction of those materials

Vaekstfonden 6 Vaekstfonden is a Danish government backed investment fund that facilitates the supply of venture capital in terms of start-up equity and high-risk loans "THE ENERGY INDUSTRY IN DENMARK- perspectives on entrepreneurship and venture capital" No Specific Cited, Latest Data From 2006 s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/www.siliconvalley.um.dk/ContentPages/43667201.pdf
In all, 20 industry experts were interviewed about the composition and dynamics of the
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decentralized energy production via solar power systems is part of the consumption stage.

Vote negative

Limits—-including extraction doubles the size of the topic and makes it bidirectional by allowing affs to affect both supply and demand sides of each energy—-undermines preparedness for all debates—-err neg because the terms incentives and restrictions serve no limiting function

Ground—-all disads are based on increasing the actual amount of power available—-they allow the aff to just extract raw materials without guaranteeing they’re ever used

Off

CIR with path to citizenship will pass—-sustained momentum’s key

Cohen 2/8 Micah is a writer for NYT’s 538 blog. "Signs of a Shift on Immigration Among G.O.P. Rank-and-File," 2013, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/08/signs-of-a-shift-on-immigration-among-g-o-p-rank-and-file/
With notable speed after the Nov. 6 presidential election, a number of Republican
AND
freeing House Republicans, in particular, to back some kind of reform.

PC’s key

Foley 1/15 Elise is a writer @ Huff Post Politics. "Obama Gears Up For Immigration Reform Push In Second Term," 2013, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/15/obama-immigration-reform_n_2463388.html
Obama has repeatedly said he will push hard for immigration reform in his second term
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-style arrangement jammed by leadership — while keeping the president heavily involved.

Removing offshore drilling restrictions costs political capital

Mergers and Acquisitions Round Table 8 This section includes quotes from Andrew Spitzer, Founder of the Energy and Power Group at Harris and Williams Co., and Douglas Korn of Irving Place Partners. "Combustible; The volatility of the energy sector has turned the industry upside down. Top players in the space discuss what this means for investors and how dealmakers can capitalize.," Dec 1, Lexis
But it’s also important to remember that oil is a fungible commodity and the price
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push through an energy policy that tries to accomplish what either candidate proposed.

Visas are key to cybersecurity preparedness

McLarty 9 (Thomas F. III, President – McLarty Associates and Former White House Chief of Staff and Task Force Co-Chair, "U.S. Immigration Policy: Report of a CFR-Sponsored Independent Task Force", 7-8, http://www.cfr.org/ publication/19759/us_immigration_policy.html)
We have seen, when you look at the table of the top 20 firms
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going to strengthen, I think, our system, our security needs.

Cyber-vulnerability causes great power nuclear war

Fritz 9 | Researcher for International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament ~[Jason, researcher for International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, former Army officer and consultant, and has a master of international relations at Bond University, "Hacking Nuclear Command and Control," July,  http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.pdf-http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.pdf~]
This paper will analyse the threat of cyber terrorism in regard to nuclear weapons.
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its own, without the need for compromising command and control centres directly.

Off
Text: The United States federal government should devolve authority over restrictions on oil drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf to the 50 states and all relevant territories. The 50 states and all relevant territories should reduce restrictions on the production of oil drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf. 

Giving regulatory power to the states solves better – leaving power in the hands of the federal government guts solvency

Spakovsky and Loris 12 Hans A. von Spakovsky is a Senior Legal Fellow in the Center for Legal and Judicial Studies, and Nicolas D. Loris is the Herbert and Joyce Morgan Fellow in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies, at The Heritage Foundation, August 13, 2012, "Offshore Drilling: Increase Access, Reduce the Risk, and Stop Hurting American Companies", http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/08/offshore-drilling-increase-access-reduce-the-risk-and-stop-hurting-american-companies-http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/08/offshore-drilling-increase-access-reduce-the-risk-and-stop-hurting-american-companies
Congress should require the Department of the Interior to honor the permit deadlines (as
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who can arbitrarily stop such energy development across the nation by executive fiat.

Off

The United States Supreme Court should rule restrictions on oil drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf unconstitutional on the grounds that it violates the tenth amendment

Courts can effectively rule to invalidate restrictions on all forms of energy production

Simon 7 ~[Christopher A. Simon - Director, Master of Public Administration, Political Science Department, University of Utah, Professor, Political Science, "Alternative Energy: Political, Economic, and Social Feasibility"~]
THE COURTS
The institutional power of the federal courts regarding energy policy is not ex- plicit
AND
in method and decision making rather than a strict con- structionist approach.
Over the years, the courts have had a significant role in energy policy.
AND
tangentially and quite possibly with little emphasis beyond the nature of the case.
The Court, however, tightened its level of scrutiny in term of energy-
AND
related to the issue of energy resource development, processing, and distribution.
The 1970s, a decade in which the petroleum-based energy paradigm expe-
AND
significant por- tions of regulation and process-related nuclear energy policy.
In the same year, the Court decided the so-called trans-Alaska
AND
decision in relation to the states’ power to regulate intrastate energy policy issues.
In Exxon Corp. et alia v. Governor of Maryland et alia 437 U
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goals not inconsistent with national constitutional in- terpretation and national policy priorities.

It’s competitive —- doesn’t reduce restrictions, just rules them unenforceable

Treanor %26 Sperling 93 William - Prof Law at Fordham. Gene - Deputy Assistant to President for Economic Policy. "PROSPECTIVE OVERRULING AND THE REVIVAL OF "UNCONSTITUTIONAL" STATUTES," Columbia Law Review, Dec 93, lexis
Unlike the Supreme Court, several state courts have explicitly addressed the revival issue. The relevant state court cases have concerned the specific issue of whether a statute that has been held unconstitutional is revived when the invalidating decision is overturned. n42 With one exception, they have concluded that such statutes are immediately enforceable.
The most noted instance in which the revival issue was resolved by a court involved the District of Columbia minimum wage statute pronounced unconstitutional in Adkins. After the Court reversed Adkins in West Coast Hotel, President Roosevelt asked Attorney General Homer  ~[*1913~]  Cummings for an opinion on the status of the District of Columbia’s statute. The Attorney General responded,
 The decisions are practically in accord in holding that the courts have no power to repeal or abolish a statute, and that notwithstanding a decision holding it unconstitutional a statute continues to remain on the statute books; and that if a statute be declared unconstitutional and the decision so declaring it be subsequently overruled the statute will then be held valid from the date it became effective. n43
Enforcement of the statute followed without congressional action. n44
When this enforcement was challenged, the Municipal Court of Appeals for the District of
AND
decision is reversed the statute is valid from its first effective date. n46
 The court declared this precedent sound since the cases were "in accord with
AND
a period judicially unenforceable, there was no need to reenact it. n49
Almost all other courts that have addressed the issue of whether a statute that has
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rejecting this claim and in finding for the husband, the Court stated:
 Since we have declared the uniform court rule partially unconstitutional, it appears to
AND
an assumption of legislative power not delegated to it by the Constitution. n52
 The Louisiana Court thus took a mechanical approach to the revival question. According to its rationale, when a statute is found unconstitutional, it is judicially determined never to have existed. Revival therefore entails judicial legislation and thereby violates constitutionally mandated separation of powers: because the initial legislative passage  ~[*1915~]  of the bill has no legitimacy, the bill’s force is considered to be purely a creature of judicial decision-making.
Jefferson has little analytic appeal. Its view of the separation of powers doctrine is
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a statute did not revive does not offer a convincing rationale for nonrevival.

Heg

Hegemony inevitable—just a question of whether we want it

Friedman 9—-chief executive, founder of STRATFOR. Former pol sci prof, Dickinson College. PhD in government, Cornell. (George, The Next 100 Years, 13-31)

We are now in an America-centric age. To understand this age,
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of its power. The twenty first century will be the American century. 

Oil dependence key to hegemony—-military power, credibility, and dollar primacy

Hulbert 12 Matthew Hulbert is senior fellow at the Clingendael International Energy Programme "America Will Deeply Regret Its Fixation On Energy Independence" 8/19/12 www.forbes.com/sites/matthewhulbert/2012/08/19/why-america-will-deeply-regret-us-energy-independence/4/
The U.S. energy independence debate is getting very tetchy of late. Seasoned energy experts are trading cheap blows, principally for sitting on opposite sides of the fence. Nobody doubts that U.S. energy output will  keep growing, but whether it ever amounts to full ’independence’ is at best tenuous. More importantly, it spells total disaster for America’s role in the world. No global oil role, forget being a global hyper power. Those days will be gone.   
The allure of energy independence is a compelling story to tell. The U.
AND
everyone pays for a barrel of oil. Epic stuff, no doubt.
Whether you believe all these numbers doesn’t really matter. Few U.S.
AND
or more), it’s already creating serious geopolitical gaps across international energy markets.
That’s deeply problematic, precisely because supply side dynamics are looking more fragile than they
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a new geopolitical game thanks to energy independence beckoning just around the corner.
Passive = Libya, where the U.S. made it abundantly clear to
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willing to put narrow interests above and beyond oil market stability (Iran).
No one should blame, or bemoan the U.S. for doing this
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interests to promote and extend U.S. influence across the globe.

Beijing will move in after a US pivot—-causes expansionism

WSJ 6/26 Keith Johnson "U.S. Oil Boom Spotlights China’s Persian Gulf Dependence" blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/06/26/u-s-oil-boom-spotlights-chinas-persian-gulf-dependence/
The U.S. is moving toward greater energy independence just as China,
AND
the ingredients for a historic reshuffling of the security picture in the region.
The question facing policymakers in Washington is deceptively simple:  Would that be a good thing or a bad thing?
Many believe that greater Chinese involvement, especially in tasks such as protecting global commerce, will lead the country to support the international order the U.S. created after World War II—and from which China has benefited so much.  Others worry that China’s rapid naval modernization and desire to play a bigger global role will complicate American foreign policy, and help cloak the country’s military capabilities as it strives for parity with the U.S.
One thing is certain: China’s quest for a modern navy coincides with its transformation from an oil exporter to an oil importer, with most of that crude winding its way through narrow chokepoints controlled by the U.S. Navy.  Known as the "Malacca Dilemma," for the straits through which pass 80% of China’s crude, that nagging worry has dictated much of China’s security posture.
"If you look back at rising powers in history, one of the things they do is get very uncomfortable with leaving the security of trade routes to established powers, so they gear up their military capability, which can take on a life of its own," said Michael Levi, an energy security expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.
The last time China had a true blue-water navy capable of sailing the high seas, showing the flag, and cowing potential rivals was the early 1400s.  Today, the Pentagon has concluded, Beijing wants that capability again.
"China’s leaders have offered unambiguous guidance that the ~[People’s Liberation Army Navy~] will play a growing role in protecting China’s far-flung interests," the Pentagon report concluded. While acknowledging that Chinese naval capabilities are still in their infancy—it just launched its very first aircraft carrier, and carrier air wings are still a future project—the report underscored concerns that the Chinese navy represents the most serious challenge to U.S. interests in the Pacific.
In recent years, China has been assertive about its rights in neighboring seas,
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force off the coast of Yemen, a first for the Chinese navy.

That guts naval hegemony and causes string of pearls strategy

Townshend 11—Ashley, Research Associate in the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute for International Policy, Real Clear World, "Few Reasons to Fear China’s ’Pearls’", May 26, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/05/26/few_reasons_to_fear_china_pearls_99534.html-http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/05/26/few_reasons_to_fear_china_pearls_99534.html
Revelations that Pakistan has invited China to construct a naval base at the strategically located port of Gwadar have intensified anxieties about Beijing’s Indian Ocean objectives.
For many observers, any militarisation of the Gwadar facility - a predominantly Chinese-funded commercial port about 500km from the Strait of Hormuz - would confirm deep-seated suspicions about Beijing’s so-called "string of pearls" strategy.
According to proponents of this view, China is establishing ports throughout littoral South Asia
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the sea lanes that transport about 25 per cent of the world’s oil.

Naval power independently solves great power wars

Conway et al 7 ~[James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, "A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower," October, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf~~]

No other disruption is as potentially disastrous to global stability as war among major powers
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and sustain forces, sea control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

And, causes an arms race and nuclear war with India

Sayler 7/22—Kelley, CSIS research assistant, MA Baylor, "Nuclear Stability in South Asia", 201 ,http://csis.org/blog/nuclear-stability-south-asia-http://csis.org/blog/nuclear-stability-south-asia

The convergence of a number of factors in South Asia – including strategic anxieties,
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, at a Monday event hosted by the United States Institute for Peace.
Opening the discussion, Vijay Shankar, former Commander-in-Chief of the
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supported by India’s recognition of a point of diminishing returns in nuclear sizing.
It is not at all clear, however, that India possesses the political will
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operating in its neighborhood or by reports of a steadily expanding Pakistani arsenal.
For its part, Pakistan has similarly committed to maintaining a policy of minimum deterrence
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argued, that prevented the Kargil War from escalating into a nuclear exchange.
But given this emphasis on maintaining strategic parity, it would seem that Pakistan’s nuclear
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country’s arsenal, thereby moving it away from a policy of minimum deterrence.
Following Shankar and Chaudhry’s discussion of the potential for a South Asian nuclear build-
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it legitimized the use of nuclear power plants for non-peaceful purposes.
Toby Dalton of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace then highlighted the intimate connection between
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and transparency measures will be increasingly important to implement in the coming years.
In contrast to the South Asian discussants, Dalton was pessimistic about the prospects for
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Pakistani nuclear security could exacerbate fears of a disarming first strike, thereby driving

Econ

The plan collapses oil prices overnight—-the link is huge and unique

Poruban 12 Steven Poruban "API: Raising US oil supplies key to lowering gasoline prices" 3/26 www.ogj.com/articles/print/vol-110/issue-3c/general-interest/api-raising-us-oil.html
A major component to relieving upward pressure on gasoline prices in the US will come from increasing domestic oil production and not from raising taxes, American Petroleum Institute Pres. and Chief Executive Officer Jack Gerard told reporters Mar. 20 during a conference call from Washington, DC.
He said President Barack Obama’s administration needs a "reality check" as well as a revision to the unclear signals it is sending the market. This is something that US voters understand as well, Gerard noted, citing statistics from a poll conducted earlier this month by Harris Interactive on behalf of API among 1,009 registered voters in the US.
"Voters understand that raising taxes is not a solution for high gasoline prices," Gerard said, adding, "No economist in the world will tell you gas prices can be reduced by increasing taxes, and the Congressional Research Service just released a study saying so," Gerard said.
"A true all-of-the-above energy strategy would include greater access to areas that are currently off limits, a regulatory and permitting process that supported reasonable timelines for development, and immediate approval of the Keystone XL pipeline to bring more Canadian oil to US refineries. This would send a positive signal to the market and could help put downward pressure on prices," he said.
A large majority of these polled voters, API said, "also believe that more US oil and natural gas development could reduce gasoline prices (81%), lead to more American jobs (90%), and enhance America’s energy security (84%)."
Gerard said, "Most US resources have been placed off-limits. The
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on our treasury in taxes, rents, royalties, and bonus bids."
Market perception
The very notion that the Obama administration is proposing the release of oil supplies from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve or asking other countries, such as Saudi Arabia, to boost oil production, is a "clear admissions that supply matters" in the case of relieving gasoline price pressure, Gerard said.
Markets are largely driven by perception, Gerard said, and when Obama in his early days in office sent out the message to the market that oil and gas production from the Gulf of Mexico, for example, would be higher today than it was then, that is part of the reason we’re experiencing higher gasoline prices in the US.
To illustrate this point about clear market signals, Gerard recalled the example of when US gasoline prices were surpassing %244/gal during George W. Bush’s presidency, his administration lifted the moratorium on offshore drilling and in a matter of days, oil prices fell by %2415-16/bbl.

Prolonged dip in prices collapses all producer states, causes political repression and state collapse, and unleashes wars across the world

Hulbert 12 Matthew Hulbert is an analyst at the Netherlands Institute for International Relations "The political perils of low oil prices" July 9 2012 www.europeanenergyreview.eu/site/pagina.php?id=3796%26id_mailing=295%26toegang=49182f81e6a13cf5eaa496d51fea6406
As unedifying as all that might be, the bigger problem producer states have is that internal repression has no guarantee of success these days. It didn’t work for Gadhafi in Libya, and it’s unlikely to work for Assad in Syria in the long term. As fierce as the rear-guard battles have been, they’ve not been militarily conclusive or conducive to on-going hydrocarbon production.
Follow that argument through and it is clear that if the bulk of producer regimes
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major players not sitting on a powder keg of political risk these days.
More likely than not, it will be some of the smaller players that get
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could end up with a scorched earth policy if financing gaps aren’t closed.
Go further up the producer state ’food chain’, and some of the world’s largest players all have the same structural political problems, be it in the Middle East, Eurasia or Latin America. Any sign that a bigger petro-beast is losing control, and prices would rapidly lift. That might be welcome news for producer states lucky enough to ride the price wave and remain intact, but it’s a very dangerous game to play.
And that’s the whole problem here - the gap between geological costs of production and
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where consumers want to be in terms of sourcing plentiful and fungible supplies.
Final scene: corpses all over the stage
By way of reminder, as much as petro-states currently face a systemic
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eminently possible, but swings well beyond that ’price band’ all too likely.
Splitting this price directly in two and sticking close to %24100/b might not be that bad an idea after all: Mopping up the mess from producer state implosion would require an effort far beyond the international systems capabilities and reach. Carefully agreed truces are always better than outright wars, particularly for those squeamish about collateral damage. Corpses would litter the entire energy stage.

High oil prices key to Russia’s economy and political stability—-a slump plunges the bear into chaos

RB 12 Russia Briefing is a magazine and daily news service about doing business in Russia. "Russia Could Face Political Flux if Oil Prices Sink" May 28 russia-briefing.com/news/russia-could-face-political-flux-if-oil-prices-sink.html/
Russia Could Face Political Flux if Oil Prices Sink
Russia’s political stability risks being being shaken if Greece leaves the Euro area and triggers a sinking in the price of oil, according to a new report from an influential Moscow think tank, released on Thursday.
"There’s a big chance of a Greek exit, which would lead to more countries pulling out of the currency union," said Mikhail Dmitriev, head of the Center for Strategic Studies.
Russia relies on oil and gas exports for half of its budget revenue and Europe as a market for more than 50 percent of its exports and 42 percent of imports, according to official data.
"If energy prices plunge, Russia may suffer a worse recession than in 2009, which would swell anti-Putin sentiment and we will see the escalation of political violence and repression on one hand, and the worst economic crisis on the other," said Dmitriev, a deputy economy minister of Russia from 2000 to 2004. "This may lead to Putin losing control and a chaotic political transformation."
Brent, the grade that underpins prices for Russia’s Urals oil blend, may decline to US%2480 a barrel if Greece leaves the currency union without triggering crises in other euro members or as low as US%2460 if there is a "disorderly" breakup of the euro region, according to a Bank of America report dated May 17. Urals today traded at US%24103.95, the lowest since last December.
As for nation’s gross domestic product, it may shrink to 2.1 percent, when inflation will speed up to 6.7 percent, according to the Sberbank’s Center of Macroeconomic Research. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts even higher inflation which might be as much as 7.6 percent.
"If the oil price will slump to US%2480 per barrel, Russia may experience zero growth in GDP," Julia Tseplyaeva, leading economist with BNP Paribas said to Russian business daily Vedomosti.
The study is being closely watched because Dmitriev’s center was the only major one to accurately predict early last year that support for the regime was plunging and that it would face a crisis as early as December’s parliamentary elections.
"A deteriorating global economy would threaten to wipe out capital that Russian investors and businesses moved to Europe in search of safety," Dmitriev said, adding that there is already "large-scale capital flight from Russia, despite the economic recovery."
In a worst-case scenario following a Greek exit from the euro area, Russia’s economy would contract 2.1 percent with the potential for US%2495 billion in capital leaving the country in a year, Ksenia Yudaeva, chief economist at Moscow-based OAO Sberbank, the country’s biggest lender, said to Bloomberg.

Russian economic decline causes nuclear war

Filger 9 Sheldon, author and blogger for the Huffington Post, "Russian Economy Faces Disastrous Free Fall Contraction" http://www.globaleconomiccrisis.com/blog/archives/356
In Russia historically, economic health and political stability are intertwined to a degree that
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the financial impact of the Global Economic Crisis is its least dangerous consequence.

Oil prices are the lifeblood of Saudi growth and stability—-full coffers key to deterring an arab spring

O’Sullivan 12 Arieh O’Sullivan is the Defense Correspondent for The Jerusalem Post. "SAUDI’S AGED STABILITY ROCKING" June 28 www.inss.org.il/upload/(FILE)1341716252.pdf
With OPEC nations pumping the highest levels of oil since 2008, the price of crude has dropped to below %2480. This sort of news means that Saudi Arabia, the nation with the largest oil reserves in the world, will have to start running a deficit and could cut back on promised expenditures originally aimed at keeping any popular unrest at bay.
Saudi Arabia has worked hard to diversify its economy, but oil remains its lifeblood, paying for massive infrastructure projects, covering bloated civil service payrolls and ensuring free or low-cost healthcare and other benefits.
Saudi Arabia’s break-even price is around %2470-%2480, according to bankers and analysts surveyed by the Reuters news agency. When oil was high, above %24115 a barrel last year, and Saudi Arabia’s coffers swelled, it allocated a series of subsidies and other measures worth as much as %24133 billion to help ensure the bounty reached ordinary Saudis.
That appears to be in jeopardy.
"Those at the top of the Saudi royal pyramid are old, and the aging of the leadership could have geopolitical implications," Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher and expert on Saudi Arabia at the Institute for National Security Studies, told The Media Line.
"The Arab Spring challenges the legitimacy of the monarchs themselves. Iran does the same, but they use Iran as a scapegoat for many things and it has actually helped them. But the Arab Spring is a real threat," Guzansky said. "They lose enemies — look at Syria — but also allies. I don’t know what will happen next in Jordan. I don’t know what the future holds for Bahrain."

Uprisings collapse relations with the US and causes a saudi-iran war that spread across the middle east

Bauer November 2011 William, Specialising in Middle-Eastern and Maghreb affairs, William has worked and studied in the Levant, North-Africa and the Gulf, as well as having traveled extensively throughout the MENA region. His BA was in Middle-Eastern Studies and Arabic, from the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Exeter, "Further Bahrain Unrest Would Be Saudi Arabia’s Worst Nightmare", William, http://www.policymic.com/articles/further-bahrain-unrest-would-be-saudi-arabia-s-worst-nightmare-http://www.policymic.com/articles/further-bahrain-unrest-would-be-saudi-arabia-s-worst-nightmare
Economically, should Bahrain experience further unrest, Saudi Arabia could become engulfed in similar
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managers. An economy broadly based on foreign expertise would be severely disrupted.
On a political level, the repression of such an uprising would undoubtedly be brutal. This would force the U.S. to critique and distance itself from its long-term ally, isolating Saudi further and making it internally compromise with the religious establishment and curtail uk/world/2011/sep/25/saudi-arabia-women-vote-elections to stabilize the state. It would also lead to a stricter Wahabbi doctrine being enforced, especially in the relatively relaxed Eastern Province, as the Kingdom attempted to reassert control. 
Finally, Iran would be on a collision course with Saudi Arabia, as relations
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. Indeed, the eventual end game could destabilize this sensitive region.

Global economy improving-increased business activity

Reuters 2/5, "Euro Zone Economy Showing Signs of Recovery, Optimism Builds", com/id/100433959
The euro zone’s embattled economy has turned a corner, according to a business survey
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January as burgeoning German output offered support, data released last week showed.

US not key—global economies decoupling

Caryl, Sr. Fellow @ MIT, 10 ~[Christian Caryl is a Editor at Foreign Policy and Newsweek and a Senior Fellow of the CSIS at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "Crisis? What Crisis?" 4/5/10 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/04/05/crisis_what_crisis?print=yes%26hidecomments=yes%26page=full~~]
We went through a terrifying moment back in the fall of 2008. The financial
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2008-2009 crisis as the beginning of a more equitable global economy.