Tournament: UNI | Round: 1 | Opponent: Illinois State OH | Judge: Arif Hasan

1NC

Organizing a more just society should be the primary goal of modern politics – the meticulously economic focus of energy system hamstrings our ability to accomplish this goal and destroys the biosphere and causes global war
Dahm and Bannas 2011 (Daniel, Stephen, "The decline of the Fossil Age is the rise of distributive justice" http://poldev.revues.org/835-http://poldev.revues.org/835)
The many cultures of the world today face a huge challenge: the organisation of
AND
good governance, of justice, participation and stewardship of our social goods.

The belief in an entirely controllable and regulatable natural world causes extinction

Dahm and Bannas 2011 (Daniel, Stephen, "The decline of the Fossil Age is the rise of distributive justice" http://poldev.revues.org/835-http://poldev.revues.org/835)
The biosphere and geosphere exist in close dynamic interdependency. Their relational structure is gaining
AND
to one concerned first and foremost with the production of energy and materials.

The Alternative is to take a reality check – energy production follows a stringent line of historical reasoning believing that the next energy revolution will save everything – however through the alternative we can think historically to understand the massive inequalities and violence necessary for the energy regime

Byrne and Toly 2k6 (john, Noah, "Energy as a Social Project: Recovering a Discourse" Transforming Power: Energy, Environment, And Society in Conflict. Eds John Byrne, Noah Toly, and Leigh Glover. Pgs 1-32. Transaction Publishers. )
From climate change to acid rain, contaminated landscapes, mercury pollution, and biodiversity
AND
considers the discursive continuities between the premises of conventional and sustainable energy futures.

Shell (No Link)

Farm bill will pass now – momentum high now.  Obama leverage is key

Christopher Doering (writer for ArgusLeader) August 29, 2012 "Disinterest hinders farm bill chances" http://www.argusleader.com/article/20120829/NEWS/308290047/Disinterest-hinders-farm-bill-chances
Those who follow the farm bill say lawmakers in urban areas who are not heavily
AND
or until 2013, programs could be subjected to even deeper spending cuts.

~[Insert Plan Unpopular~]

The only time that an IFR reactor was tried it was shut down due to political concerns of proliferation among other things – plan would cost massive amounts of capital

Elias 8 (Thomas Elias – Syndicated Political Columnist, "An energy solution that’s worth another look", San Gabriel Valley Tribune, October 3 2008, Lexis) AC
THERE may be a workable way to solve most of America’s energy problems, end dependence on foreign oil and dramatically cut greenhouse gas emissions with little pain.¶ Remarkably, while proposals AND accessed at http://www.nationalcenter.org/NPA378.html .

Obama’s political capital key to agenda – must use it strategically

Harvard Political Review 1-14-11 
("President Obama’s Political Capital: org/author/rtarigopula/ 1-14-2011 MLF Harvard Political Review http://hpronline.org/hprgument/president-obamas-political-capital/-http://hpronline.org/hprgument/president-obamas-political-capital/)
Much hullabaloo-http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20027301-503544.html has been made in the last two weeks over the state of the
AND
, and may very well determine the outcome of the 2012 presidential race. 

Failure to pass the bill crushes agricultural credit and food production

Carey Gillam and Charles Abbot (writers for Reuters) August 28, 2012 "Farmers want new Farm Bill, but time is running out" http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/28/us-usa-farmbill-idUSBRE87R1AH20120828
Congress needs to pass a new Farm Bill and fast or risk putting U.
AND
lack of a Farm Bill could hurt their chances to get a loan."

That collapses the whole economy

Peter Schiff (writer for Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.) 1-19-2009 "Credit Where Credit is Due" http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/economic-commentary/2009-01-19.html
This week, in a speech before the London School of Economics, Fed Chairman
AND
to spend, loans can only be repaid out of reduced future consumption.   

Economic collapse causes global nuclear war

Friedberg and Schoenfeld, 2008  ~[Aaron, Prof. Politics. And IR @ Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School and Visiting Scholar @ Witherspoon Institute, and Gabriel, Senior Editor of Commentary and Wall Street Journal, "The Dangers of a Diminished America" http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455074012352571.html-http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455074012352571.html~]
Then there are the dolorous consequences of a potential collapse of the world’s financial architecture
AND
of these countries seek to divert attention from internal travails with external adventures.

Free market

The United States federal government should phase out all current energy subsidies and incentives, and ban future energy subsidies and incentives.

Government subsidies fail to motivate policy – the free-market solves
Burnett 12 ~["Energy Loserville: U.S. DOE Picks in an Artificial Industry", Sterling Burnett, July 9, 2012, khirn~]

"When government undertakes tasks for which it is ill equipped it squanders the authority
AND
would have created jobs in industries chosen by consumers in the market place.

Loan guarantees suck – broadening the program institutionalizes inefficiency and dooms nuclear power
Spencer 10 ~[Domestic Policy Subcommittee Of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee Tuesday, April 20, 2010 Jack Spencer, Senior Research Fellow, Nuclear Energy Policy, Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies, khirn~]

Limited loan guarantees can help overcome some near-term financing obstacles, but they
AND
that gave rise to the need for the subsidy in the first place.

Every dollar in government-directed spending trades off with new, more competitive technologies
Burnett 12 ~["Energy Loserville: U.S. DOE Picks in an Artificial Industry", Sterling Burnett, July 9, 2012, khirn~]

Government Subsidies Reconsidered This latter point is perhaps the greatest weakness of any benefit/
AND
and bad ideology, have put the sitting President at odds with reality. 

Innovation in the energy sector is vital to overall U.S. competitiveness
Deutsch, 08 - former undersecretary of DOE and Institute Professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, (John, Issues in Science and Technology, "Ending the Inertia on Energy Policy," Winter 08, html

There is only one solution to the challenge: The United States must begin the
AND
.S. technical assistance programs and trade will carry these advances abroad.

Competitiveness is vital to U.S. hegemony and the economy
Segal, 4 – Senior Fellow in China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations
(Adam, Foreign Affairs, "Is America Losing Its Edge?" November / December 2004, http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20041101facomment83601/adam-segal/is-america-losing-its-edge.html)  JMP

The United States’ global primacy depends in large part on its ability to develop new
AND
, the United States must get better at fostering technological entrepreneurship at home.

That prevents a global nuclear exchange
Khalilzad, 95 – Rand Corportation
(Zalmay, "Losing the Moment?" The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 2, pg. 84, Spring, Lexis)

Under the third option, the United States would seek to retain global leadership and
AND
to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system.

1NC 1-ADD NUC LINK

High prices are key to the Russian economy and domestic stability

Michael Schuman 7-5-2012 ; writes about Asia and global economic issues as a correspondent for TIME in Hong Kong. B.A. in Asian history and political science from the University of Pennsylvania and a master of international affairs from Columbia; "Why Vladimir Putin Needs Higher Oil Prices" http://business.time.com/2012/07/05/why-vladimir-putin-needs-higher-oil-prices/

But Vladimir Putin is not one of them. The economy that the Russian President
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growth model looks unsustainable unless oil prices remain at or above %24120pb.

Nuclear power reduces oil dependence – displaces oil power generation, powers maritime and ground transportation, and causes hydrogen transition

ANS 2012; American Nuclear Society, Top 10 Myths about Nuclear Energyhttp://www.new.ans.org/pi/resources/myths/

Myth ~%23 10: Nuclear energy can’t reduce our dependence on foreign oil. Truth
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oil by producing hydrogen for use in fuel cells and synthetic liquid fuels.

Oil futures are overshot by speculation – lowering demand would set off a price collapse

Alexei Bayer 7-26-2012; Alexei Bayer is head of KAFAN FX Information Services. His monthly "Global Economy" column in Research has received an excellence award from the New York State Society of Certified Public Accountants for the past six years, 2004-2009 "Pop That Bubble Policies should aim at pushing oil prices down" http://www.advisorone.com/2012/07/26/pop-that-bubble?page=3

A Soft Market Demand for oil, then, is softening because the global economy
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-adjusted equilibrium price range of around %2420-40 per barrel.

Russian economic collapse causes global nuclear war

Steven David, January/February 1999; Professor of International Relations and Associate Dean of Academic Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University, FOREIGN AFFAIRS, , http://www.foreignaffairs.org/19990101faessay955/steven-r-david/saving-america-from-the-coming-civilwars.html

If internal war does strike Russia, economic deterioration will be a prime cause.
AND
of Soviet communism, a second civil war might produce another horrific regime.

1NC – Defense

Don’t solve warming – tipping point inevitable, timeframe and insufficient amount of reductions  block

Smith, 11 ~[Gar, environmental journalist, He is the former editor of Earth Island Journal, and currently edits Earth Island Institute’s weekly "eco-zine" The-Edge. NUCLEAR ROULETTE: THE CASE AGAINST A NUCLEAR RENAISSANCEhttp://ifg.org/pdf/Nuclear_Roulette_book.pdf~~]
More than 200 new reactors have been proposed around the world but not enough reactors
AND
40 years, at which point the plants would need to be decommissioned.

Nuclear power can’t solve warming — electricity sector emissions are too small, and inevitable demand increases mean the impact is negligible at best.

Green, ’6
~[Jim, national nuclear campaigner with Friends of the Earth, has an honours degree in public health and a PhD in science and technology studies for his doctoral thesis on the Lucas Heights research reactor debates, energyscience.org.au, "Nuclear power and climate change," November, http://www.energyscience.org.au/FS03%20Nucl%20Power%20Clmt%20Chng.pdf-http://www.energyscience.org.au/FS03 Nucl Power Clmt Chng.pdf~]
It is widely accepted that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions must be sharply reduced to avert
AND
a doubling of global nuclear power would reduce emissions by more than 5%. 

Tripling current global capacity by 2050 is necessary for nuclear power to solve warming — multiple constraints prevent that.

Squassoni, ’8
~[Sharon, Senior Associate, Nonproliferation Program — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 3-12, "The Realities of Nuclear Expansion" Congressional Testimony: House Select Committee for Energy Independence and Global Warming, Washington, DC~]
In 2004, Princeton scientists Stephen Pacala and Robert Socolow published a "wedge analysis
AND
created by an increase in worldwide demand; and an aging labor force.

No ice ages for another 70 thousand years
Berger and Loutre 2 ~[Université catholique de Louvain, Institut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique ~[André. and M.F., "An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead?" Science 23 August, Vol. 297. no. 5585, pp. 1287 – 1288~]
 
When paleoclimatologists gathered in 1972 to discuss how and when the present warm period would
AND
the next 25,000 years, damping the variations of precession considerably. 

No impact or spillover—no broader environmental harm or domino effect.  Low resilience claims are false
Ridder 2008 – PhD, School of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Tasmania (Ben, Biodiversity And Conservation, 17.4, "Questioning the ecosystem services argument for biodiversity conservation") *ES = environmental services
The low resilience assumption
Advocates of the conservation of biodiversity tend not to acknowledge the distinction between resilient and
AND
associated with any use of economic arguments to justify the conservation of biodiversity.

Alt causes to food price rise
Breaking Views 8 (4/15, Higher food prices will reduce poverty, http://www.livemint.com/2008/04/15235340/Higher-food-prices-will-reduce.html)

Food prices have certainly seen a meteoric rise. The food price index calculated by
AND
crops from food to ethanol production may have forced prices up as well. 

Tournament: UNI | Round: 1 | Opponent: Illinois State OH | Judge: Arif Hasan

1NR IMpact Calc

Timeframe – our impact is based on perception and the impact happens in a matter of weeks

Gary North (PhD in economic history (The concept of property in Puritan New England, 1630-1720) from the University of California, Riverside) July 26, 2008 "Ben Bernanke’s Hush Money" http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north642.html
When banks lose capital, they must either find new investors, or else they
AND
100 miles from a major city does not take seriously his own scenario. 

1NR Impact – Food Prices

Causes food price spikes globally

iStockAnalyst October 28, 2008 "Tight credit for farmers leads to smaller crops, higher prices and more hunger" http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle+articleid_2745256~~pageid_0.html
Tighter credit for farmers could worsen a global food crisis as smaller crop sizes cause
AND
a steep decline in crop yields could cause future prices to reverse course.

1NR Impact - Renewable Energy Mod

Rural credit collapse via banks collapses development of renewable energy

Sara Wyant (writer for the high plains/Midwest ag Journal) September 4, 2007  "will the credit crunch impact agriculture?" http://www.hpj.com/archives/2007/Sep07/Sep10/Willthecreditcrunchimpactag.cfm
Although the renewable energy industry appears to be booming, higher interest rates and tighter
AND
for plants to be built relying solely on local sources for equity investment.

Extinction

James Reynolds June 18 2003 "EARTH ’IS HEADING FOR MASS EXTINCTION IN JUST A CENTURY", The Scotsman
THE worst mass extinction in the history of the planet could be replicated in as
AND
clean energy sources. "People can no longer ignore this looming catastrophe."

1NR Impact - Dollar Collapse Mod

Failure of banks causes US dollar collapse and ripple globally

Andre Damon (writer for the International Committee of the Fourth International) July 4, 2008 "US:  The Federal Reserve’s dilemma" http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/jul2008/fed-j04.shtml
Recent discussions in the business press have made clear that the US financial system faces
AND
precipitate a dollar collapse and a catastrophic reordering of the international economic system.

Dollar collapse will ensure a US-China war

Walter Russell Mead (Senior Fellow at Council on Foreign Relations) 2004 "America’s STICKY Power," Foreign Policy, Mar/Apr, Proquest
Similarly, in the last 60 years, as foreigners have acquired a greater value
AND
inevitable" U.S.-Chinese conflict is less likely to occur.

US-China war will go nuclear and destroy the planet

Straits Times 2000 "Regional Fallout: No one gains in war over Taiwan," Jun 25, LN
THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war escalating into a full
AND
cannot be ruled out entirely, for China puts sovereignty above everything else. 

Uniqueness Wall

Extend the 1NC doering evidence: Pressure is mounting on congress to pass the farm bill, and they can get it done. Its just a matter of keeping up pressure and political will to get it done

Also all of their evidence has 0 warrants in it. Just says, congress doesn’t really like the farm bill.

Farm bill will be voted on before the election – but even a temporary extension is dicey

Andrew Taylor (writer for the San Francisco Chronicle) September 10, 2012 "Congress returns for short pre-election session" http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Congress-returns-for-short-pre-election-session-3851162.php
Congress returned to Washington on Monday for an abbreviated pre-election session in which
AND
the current farm bill covers 2012 crops regardless of when they are harvested.

Farm bill is at the top of the docket after the recess – Obama ratcheting up pressure now

David Bennett (writer for Delta Farm Press) August 8, 2012 "Obama: farm bill "single best" way to assist rural America" http://deltafarmpress.com/government/obama-farm-bill-single-best-way-assist-rural-america
 Following a Tuesday (August 7) meeting with the White House Rural Council
AND
the White House response to the drought as "all hands on deck."

A Discharge petition was very recently submitted but was held up by procedural impediments

NYT (New York Times) September 12, 2012 "Deal on a Farm Bill Appears Unlikely" http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/13/us/congressional-deal-on-a-farm-bill-appears-unlikely.html
 Some Republicans are now pondering a one-year extension of the current law
AND
a floor vote. But it is being held up by procedural impediments. 

Those procedurals hurdles have been overcome – sets the bill up for an up and down vote soon

Eric Wasson (writer for The Hill) September 13, 2012 "Farm bill discharge petition filed" http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/budget/249321-farm-bill-discharge-petition-filed
Rep. Bruce Braley (D-Iowa) filed a discharge petition on the
AND
but as of Thursday morning still not been filed on the House floor. 

Farm bill can pass

Jordan Onwiler (Web producer at NBC) August 31, 2012 "Farm Leaders Say Farm Bill Still Possible Before Sept. 30" http://www.nebraska.tv/story/19428865/farm-leaders-say-farm-bill-still-possible-before-sept-30
Farm group leaders and House Agriculture Committee Chairman Frank Lucas said this week it is
AND
will impact every American and a bill that needs to be done now."

There’s enough time to get a full farm bill passed

Janell Baum (writer for Farm Futures) September 12, 2012 "Stabenow Confident A Farm Bill Will Come" http://farmfutures.com/story.aspx/stabenow-confident-farm-bill-17/63183
"If I had a dollar for every person who told me we couldn’t get
AND
was enough time this fall and she was sticking to her timeline goals.

A2 Winners Win

Wins don’t count for Obama, the media only covers his losses. Even his legislative victories have sapped his capital

Washington News 10 (Obama Termed "The Velcro President.", 7/30/10, Lexis) AC
Under the headline "Obama  The Velcro President," the Los Angeles Times (7
AND
is making good on its promise to raise money for the House Democrats." 

Econ Impact

Prefer our impacts – strong statistical backing

Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, "Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises," in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict
AND
popularity, are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force.  

Tournament: UNI | Round: 4 | Opponent: Wayne State BW | Judge: Scott Elliot

1NC

Organizing a more just society should be the primary goal of modern politics – the meticulously economic focus of energy system hamstrings our ability to accomplish this goal and destroys the biosphere and causes global war
Dahm and Bannas 2011 (Daniel, Stephen, "The decline of the Fossil Age is the rise of distributive justice" http://poldev.revues.org/835-http://poldev.revues.org/835)
The many cultures of the world today face a huge challenge: the organisation of
AND
good governance, of justice, participation and stewardship of our social goods.

The belief in an entirely controllable and regulatable natural world causes extinction

Dahm and Bannas 2011 (Daniel, Stephen, "The decline of the Fossil Age is the rise of distributive justice" http://poldev.revues.org/835-http://poldev.revues.org/835)
The biosphere and geosphere exist in close dynamic interdependency. Their relational structure is gaining
AND
to one concerned first and foremost with the production of energy and materials.

The Alternative is to take a reality check – energy production follows a stringent line of historical reasoning believing that the next energy revolution will save everything – however through the alternative we can think historically to understand the massive inequalities and violence necessary for the energy regime

Byrne and Toly 2k6 (john, Noah, "Energy as a Social Project: Recovering a Discourse" Transforming Power: Energy, Environment, And Society in Conflict. Eds John Byrne, Noah Toly, and Leigh Glover. Pgs 1-32. Transaction Publishers. )
From climate change to acid rain, contaminated landscapes, mercury pollution, and biodiversity
AND
considers the discursive continuities between the premises of conventional and sustainable energy futures.

1NC

The United States federal government should lift the drilling moratorium for the Outer Continental Shelf for natural gas production.

Cp solves the aff

Creates low prices which is key to the manufacturing sector, heg and the economy

Jim Motavalli (Staff Writer for the New York Times specializing in Environmental journalism) April 2012 "Natural Gas Signals a ’Manufacturing Renaissance’" http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/11/business/energy-environment/wider-availability-expands-uses-for-natural-gas.html?_r=1%26pagewanted=all-http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/11/business/energy-environment/wider-availability-expands-uses-for-natural-gas.html?_r=1%26pagewanted=all
The rapid development of shale gas technology has helped reduce energy imports and, in
AND
of new jobs and a greater investment in U.S. plants." 

Fracking contaminates aquifers – diesel
Murphy, 8/3 (Elaine Murphy, GreenAnswers, 3 August 2012, "Diesel Fuel Used in Fracking Contaminates Groundwater," http://greenanswers.com/blog/285707/diesel-fuel-used-fracking-contaminates-groundwater)//CC-http://greenanswers.com/blog/285707/diesel-fuel-used-fracking-contaminates-groundwater)//CC
Various chemicals used in fracking are leaking into groundwater in several parts of the United
AND
known to cause damage to the senses, nerves, and respiratory system.

protecting oceans from water pollution restores normal resilience and protects biodiversity, otherwise collapse is inevitable.
States News 2006 (US States News, 11/2, "Accelerating Loss of Ocean Species Threatens Human Well-Being" 11/2/06, http://www.physorg.com/news81707368.html)

The University of California at San Diego Scripps Institution of Oceanography issued the following press
AND
a point of no return as seen with species such as northern Atlantic cod

And, that causes extinction
Science Daily, ’11 (ScienceDaily, 11 August 2012, "Biodivserity Key to Earth’s Life-Support Functions in a Changing World," http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110811084513.htm)
The biological diversity of organisms on Earth is not just something we enjoy when taking
AND
diversity is thus a crucial factor in maintaining Earth’s life-support functions.

1NC

Obama will win but it will be close and is reversible

Bouie, 9/10/12 - staff writer at html (Jamelle, "The fundamentals still favor Obama," Washington Post,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-fundamentals-still-favor-obama/2012/09/10/d67db19e-fb6d-11e1-98c6-ec0a0a93f8eb_blog.html-http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-fundamentals-still-favor-obama/2012/09/10/d67db19e-fb6d-11e1-98c6-ec0a0a93f8eb_blog.html

Since the Democratic National Convention ended, there has been clear movement in the polls
AND
to his team’s inexplicable decision to cede summer advertising to the Obama campaign.

Fracking worries the public and hurts Obama’s environmental issues – He can’t do enough to quell the fears

States News Service 12 (States News Service – Quoting a release from Stanford University, "STANFORD GEOPHYSICIST: MORE ENVIRONMENTAL RULES NEEDED FOR SHALE GAS", February 6 2012, Lexis) AC
The following information was released by Stanford University:
BY MARK GOLDEN. In his State of the Union address, President Barack Obama
AND
. That was a real mistake because it makes the public needlessly paranoid."

Romney would support an Israeli strike on Iran

Robert W. Merry 8-1-2012; editor of The National Interest and the author of books on American history and foreign policyRomney Edges U.S. toward War with Iran http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/romney-edges-us-toward-war-iran-7275-http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/romney-edges-us-toward-war-iran-7275

The major newspapers all understood that GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s expressions in Jerusalem last
AND
by one iota." That’s the view that Romney subtly embraced in Jerusalem.

Great power war

Trabanco 2009 – Independent researcher of geopolitical and military affairs (1/13/09, José Miguel Alonso Trabanco, "The Middle Eastern Powder Keg Can Explode at Anytime," http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va%26aid=11762)

In case of an Israeli and/or American attack against Iran, Ahmadinejad’s government
AND
to be playing with fire right in the middle of a powder keg. 

1NC Prices – Low Now

Natural gas prices low now – multiple factors prevent spikes now
Lior Cohen (MA graduate in Economics, worked for several years in a variety of economic related positions) August 20, 2012 "Will Natural Gas Fall Below %242.50?" http://seekingalpha.com/article/817181-will-natural-gas-fall-below-2-50
Last week, natural gas prices continued their downward trend. The prices of natural
AND
— as the weather cools down and the demand for natural gas falls.

No leverage from gas – we can’t trade it

MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Interdisciplinary group including: Study Co-chairs Ernes t J. Moniz — Chair Cecil and Ida Green Professor of Physics and Engineering Systems, MIT Director, MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI) He nry D. Jacoby — Co-Chair Professor of Management, MIT Co-director, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change (JP) Anthony J. M. Meggs — Co-Chair Visiting Engineer, MITEI Study Group Robert C. Arms trong Chevron Professor, Department of Chemical Engineering, MIT Deputy Director, MITEI Daniel R. Cohn Senior Research Scientist, Plasma Science and Fusion Center, MIT Executive Director, Natural Gas Study John M. Deutch Institute Professor, Department of Chemistry, MIT Gordon M. Kaufman Morris A. Adelman Professor of Management (Emeritus), MIT Melanie A. Kenderdine Executive Director, MITEI Francis O’Sullivan Research Engineer, MITEI Sergey Paltse v Principal Research Scientist, MITEI and JP John E. Parsons Senior Lecturer, Sloan School of Management, MIT Executive Director, JP and Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research Ignacio Pe rez-Arriaga Professor of Electrical Engineering, Comillas University, Spain Visiting Professor, Engineering Systems Division, MIT John M. Re illy Senior Lecturer, Sloan School of Management, MIT Associate Director for Research, JP Mort D. Webster Assistant Professor, Engineering Systems Division, MIT) 2010 "The Future of Natural Gas" http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies/report-natural-gas.pdf-http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies/report-natural-gas.pdf
Currently world gas trade is concentrated in three regional markets: North America, Europe
AND
are major implications for U.S. natural gas production and use.

1nc hegemony (long)

1. Hegemonic transition doesn’t cause war
   MacDonald and Parent 11 ~[Paul K., Assistant Professor of Political Science at Williams College, Joseph M., Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Miami, "Graceful Decline? The Surprising Success of Great Power Retrenchment," International Security, http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/ISEC_a_00034-http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/ISEC_a_00034~]
   A policy of gradual retrenchment need not undermine the credibility of U.S.
   AND
   exacerbate U.S. grand strategic problems and risk unnecessary clashes. 101

2. Decline causes retrenchment —- that solves their impact
MacDonald and Parent 11 ~[Paul K., Assistant Professor of Political Science at Williams College, Joseph M., Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Miami, "Graceful Decline? The Surprising Success of Great Power Retrenchment," International Security, http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/ISEC_a_00034-http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/ISEC_a_00034~]
These arguments have grim implications for contemporary international politics. With the rise of new
AND
none of the declining powers that failed to retrench recovered their relative position.

3. Leadership can’t solve war —-regional conflicts are impervious to external solutions
Conry, 97 (Barbara is a foreign policy analyst at the Cato Institute, 2/5, U.S. "Global Leadership": A Euphemism for World Policeman, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=1126%26full=1)
A World without U.S. Leadership: The Myth of the Impending Apocalypse
AND
the sake of U.S. leadership does not command that support. 

Econ

Growth is not a strong enough predictor of war to matter
Blackwill 2009 – former US ambassador to India and US National Security Council Deputy for Iraq, former dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard (Robert D., RAND, "The Geopolitical Consequences of the World Economic Recession—A Caution", http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP275.pdf, WEA)

Did the economic slump lead to strategic amendments in the way Japan sees the world
AND
the historian." 33 Perhaps the same is occasionally true of pundits. ■

And, diversionary war theory is false
Boehmer 2007 – political science professor at the University of Texas (Charles, Politics %26 Policy, 35:4, "The Effects of Economic Crisis, Domestic Discord, and State Efficacy on the Decision to Initiate Interstate Conflict", WEA)

This article examines the contemporaneous effect of low economic growth and domestic instability on the
AND
, interstate conflict, or both events occurring in the same year.3 

Even if those wars happen, they will be quick and insignificant
Bennett and Nordstrom 2000 – Department of Political Science at Penn State (Scott and Timothy, Journal of Conflict Resolution, "Foreign Policy Substitutability and Internal Economic Problems in Enduring Rivalries," February 2000, EBSCO)

When engaging in diversionary actions in response to economic problems, leaders will be most
AND
purposes, states should avoid conflict initiation against target states experiencing economic problems.

Tournament: UNI | Round: 4 | Opponent: Wayne State BW | Judge: Scott Elliot

Impact

Strikes cause terrorism, CBW attacks, and oil shocks that destroy the economy

Michael Moran, 8-20-2010;   Foreign Affairs columnist for GlobalPost, covering global economics, politics and U.S. foreign policy from New York;  Moran ran CFR.org, the website of the Council on Foreign Relations, Opinion: The war over war with Iran http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/middle-east/100820/iran-war-nuclear-proliferation-israel

Yet U.S. military planners concluded long ago that Iran’s nuclear program has
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stay away from taking the final, fateful step – testing a weapon. 

Romney win would collapse the economy

Robert Reich 8-20-2012; Chancellor’s Professor of Public Policy at the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley. The Ryan-Romney Economic Plan Would Be A Disaster For America http://www.businessinsider.com/the-five-reasons-why-the-ryan-romney-economic-plan-would-be-a-2012-8

Mitt Romney hasn’t provided details so  we should be grateful he’s selected as vice president
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. And the five reasons why it would be a disaster for America.

Uniqueness

The post-convention bounce is a measure of Democratic enthusiasm – it means the pool of likely Democratic voters will be higher

Silver, 9/13/12 - statistician, author of FiveThirtyEight, one of Time’s 100 most influential people (Nate, "com/2012/09/13/sept-12-polls-since-conventions-point-to-decline-in-enthusiasm-gap/,"
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/-http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Why did President Obama get a bounce in the polls following the Democratic convention?¶
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easy, especially in a year like this one with few undecided voters.

Overall expectations about the economy are positive – this is mobilizing Democrats and boosting fundraising

Easley, 9/11/12 (Jonathan, "Team Obama has post-convention glow," The Hill, http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/248879-team-obama-has-post-convention-glow-http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/248879-team-obama-has-post-convention-glow)

The Obama campaign has been flush with good news since the Democratic National Convention,
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the economy per se, or heightened enthusiasm for the Democratic Party generally."

Most election models predict a narrow Obama win but it’s reversible

Klein, 9/11/12 – the editor of Wonkblog and a columnist at the Washington Post, as well as a contributor to MSNBC and Bloomberg(Ezra, Washington Post, "The economy (slightly) favors Obama, not Romney,"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/11/the-economy-slightly-favors-obama-not-romney/-http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/11/the-economy-slightly-favors-obama-not-romney/

I learned this the hard way. Some months ago, I worked with political
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A slight lean towards Obama, but nothing that guarantees him a victory.

Even GOP internal polls prove Romney is losing key swing states – and it’s not a bounce

Karl, 9/11/11 – ABC News’ Senior Political Correspondent (Jonathan, "Republicans Nervously Eye Swing State Polls", http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/republicans-nervously-eye-swing-state-polls/-http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/republicans-nervously-eye-swing-state-polls/)

For Mitt Romney’s campaign, the outlook in the battleground states is even worse than
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the sense of gloom among top Republicans about the direction of the campaign.

Momentum matters and it’s against Romney

Marlantes, 9/13/12 - Liz Marlantes covers politics for the Monitor and is a regular contributor to the Monitor’s political blog (Liz, "On one issue, most Americans agree: They think President Obama will win", Christian Science Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2012/0913/On-one-issue-most-Americans-agree-They-think-President-Obama-will-win-video-http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2012/0913/On-one-issue-most-Americans-agree-They-think-President-Obama-will-win-video)

Our sense is that when expectations are this consistent – when one candidate is viewed
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lens, it creates a dynamic that seems to make winning even harder.

Link - fracking

Fracking is a political loser – misinformation campaigns destroy public support

Everley, 12 - Energy In Depth Spokesperson
(Steve, July 13, "Misinformation Campaign Targets Hydraulic Fracturing," Lexis,
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discussion leads to different results than one based on semantics and talking points.
That gap in public support is also why opponents describe everything happening in oil and
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that opponents do not really understand, but that they know sounds destructive.

Fracking is unpopular with democrats

Mincer 12 – freelance journalist, BA from Harvard university, (Shira, April 4^th, "U.S. Energy Poll Shows Domestic Oil Production Support Is Rising" http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/02/us-energy-poll-domestic-oil_n_1396448.html-http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/02/us-energy-poll-domestic-oil_n_1396448.html) Jacome
A particularly divisive issue is hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") for natural gas, in which pressurizd fluids are used to unlock what by most accounts is an abundant U.S. resource that could provide energy for several decades. The poll found that 73 percent of Republicans who have heard at least a little about fracking support the process, compared to just 33 percent of Democrats.
Even among Democrats there is debate, with 39 percent of conservative-to-moderate Democrats supporting fracking (with 43 percent opposed) and only 26 percent of liberal Democrats supporting it (with 64 percent opposed).

Tournament: UNI | Round: 5 | Opponent: Northwestern SS | Judge: Scott Siebert

T

Interpretation - Energy production is limited to extraction
Energici (provides business intelligence and decision support services to companies and investors active in the wind, solar, hydro, geothermal and bioenergy industries. Specializes in providing robust research, analysis and intelligence coverage of trends and developments) February 2012 "PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION (MONTHLY)" http://www.energici.com/energy-profiles/by-country/europe-m-z/sweden/49-countries/north-america/usa/usa-geothermal/449-primary-energy-production
Definition : Primary Energy Production is the amount of energy converted from a primary energy
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and wood-derived fuels consumption; biomass waste consumption and biofuels feedstock. 

CP

The United States Supreme Court should rule that compliance orders from federal enforcement agencies regarding ~[insert aff restriction~] unconstitutional.

The Court has this authority

Eric Waeckerlin (Attorney at Davis Graham %26 Stubbs LLP Past Attorney at Kelley Drye %26 Warren LLP Law Clerk at The Honorable Sam. E Haddon, U.S. District Court for the District of Montana Energy Policy Analyst at Western Governors’ Association/Western Interstate Energy Board, J.D. University of Montana School of Law) March 21, 2012 "The Sackett Decision and Its Implications for Hydraulic Fracturing" http://www.frackinginsider.com/litigation/with-stunning-alacrity-the-united/
With stunning alacrity, the United States Supreme Court issued its opinion ~[PDF~]
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hydraulic fracturing in the absence of clear statutory authority) are potentially significant.

1NC

Obama will win but it will be close and is reversible
Bouie, 9/10/12 - staff writer at html (Jamelle, "The fundamentals still favor Obama," Washington Post,html

Since the Democratic National Convention ended, there has been clear movement in the polls
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to his team’s inexplicable decision to cede summer advertising to the Obama campaign.

Solar power is unpopular  - not seen as cost competitive

Lifsher, 5 - LA Times Staff Writer
(Marc, June 27, "Governor’s Solar Plan Is Generating Opposition," http://articles.latimes.com/2005/jun/27/business/fi-solar27-http://articles.latimes.com/2005/jun/27/business/fi-solar27, d/a 7-20-12, ads)

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s plan to spend billions of dollars to put electricity-producing
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option on most new homes beginning in 2010 would be unpopular with buyers.

Romney would support an Israeli strike on Iran

Robert W. Merry 8-1-2012; editor of The National Interest and the author of books on American history and foreign policyRomney Edges U.S. toward War with Iran http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/romney-edges-us-toward-war-iran-7275-http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/romney-edges-us-toward-war-iran-7275

The major newspapers all understood that GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s expressions in Jerusalem last
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by one iota." That’s the view that Romney subtly embraced in Jerusalem.

Great power war

Trabanco 2009 – Independent researcher of geopolitical and military affairs (1/13/09, José Miguel Alonso Trabanco, "The Middle Eastern Powder Keg Can Explode at Anytime," http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va%26aid=11762)

In case of an Israeli and/or American attack against Iran, Ahmadinejad’s government
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to be playing with fire right in the middle of a powder keg. 

Oil

Oil prices will stabilize now – prices will stick above OPEC break-even levels without significant changes

Irina Rogovaya August 2012; writer for Oil and Gas Eurasia, Oil Price Changes: Everyone Wants Stability http://www.oilandgaseurasia.com/articles/p/164/article/1875/-http://www.oilandgaseurasia.com/articles/p/164/article/1875/
According to the current base forecast for the Eurozone prepared by Oxford Economics, within
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of the cartel will not let prices fall under %24100 per barrel.

Individual-level solar power would significantly impact oil dependence

Dawn Allcot 9-8-2011; frequently covers energy efficiency, green living, and topics like LED lighting and whole home control systems for a number of technology trade magazines. Solar Power Reduces Our Dependency on Oil http://www.ecooutfitters.net/blog/2011/09/solar-power-reduces-our-dependency-on-oil/

Oil and the Middle East Unfortunately, one very significant aspect of U.S
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these factors, the case for solar power keeps getting brighter and brighter.

Oil futures are overshot by speculation – lowering demand would set off a price collapse

Alexei Bayer 7-26-2012; Alexei Bayer is head of KAFAN FX Information Services. His monthly "Global Economy" column in Research has received an excellence award from the New York State Society of Certified Public Accountants for the past six years, 2004-2009 "Pop That Bubble Policies should aim at pushing oil prices down" http://www.advisorone.com/2012/07/26/pop-that-bubble?page=3

A Soft Market Demand for oil, then, is softening because the global economy
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-adjusted equilibrium price range of around %2420-40 per barrel.

High prices are key to the Russian economy and domestic stability

Michael Schuman 7-5-2012 ; writes about Asia and global economic issues as a correspondent for TIME in Hong Kong. B.A. in Asian history and political science from the University of Pennsylvania and a master of international affairs from Columbia; "Why Vladimir Putin Needs Higher Oil Prices" http://business.time.com/2012/07/05/why-vladimir-putin-needs-higher-oil-prices/

But Vladimir Putin is not one of them. The economy that the Russian President
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growth model looks unsustainable unless oil prices remain at or above %24120pb.

Russian economic collapse causes global nuclear war

Steven David, January/February 1999; Professor of International Relations and Associate Dean of Academic Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University, FOREIGN AFFAIRS, , http://www.foreignaffairs.org/19990101faessay955/steven-r-david/saving-america-from-the-coming-civilwars.html

If internal war does strike Russia, economic deterioration will be a prime cause.
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of Soviet communism, a second civil war might produce another horrific regime.

Trade

Alt cause – EU trade war

AFP, 7/26/12 ~[Chinese solar makers warn of ’trade war’ with EU, Agente France Press, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ivUmnuP4DxT_q7Gn5M0iqdwRSPnw?docId=CNG.f14afb390e7dda24acd026cad5111c4b.a71-http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ivUmnuP4DxT_q7Gn5M0iqdwRSPnw?docId=CNG.f14afb390e7dda24acd026cad5111c4b.a71~]
BEIJING — Four leading solar cell manufacturers in China on Thursday warned a possible EU
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for European products ranging from cars, aircraft, machines and luxury goods.

Trade wars won’t escalate to real conflict, let alone protectionism
Ikenson, 09 associate director for the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute (Daniel, "A Protectionism Fling: Why Tariff Hikes and Other Trade Barriers Will Be Short-Lived," 3/12, http://www.freetrade.org/pubs/FTBs/FTB-037.html
A Little Perspective, Please¶ Although some governments will dabble in some degree of
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far more impressive than when governments attempt to limit choices through policy constraints.

AT China War

First strike solves
Lieber and Press 06 (Keir A. Lieber - assistant professor in the Department
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. 2, pg. 42, Mar/Apr 2006, ProQuest)

China’s nuclear arsenal is even more vulnerable to a U.S. attack.
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today and should be able to maintain it for a decade or more.

Overall U.S. deterrence solves
Ross, 9 – professor of political science at Boston College (Robert, The National Interest, "Myth", 9/1,
http://nationalinterest.org/greatdebate/dragons/myth-3819)

Despite impressive Chinese advances, in maritime East Asia the United States retains military superiority
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to engage the rise of China without undermining U.S. security.

AT Econ

Growth is not a strong enough predictor of war to matter
Blackwill 2009 – former US ambassador to India and US National Security Council Deputy for Iraq, former dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard (Robert D., RAND, "The Geopolitical Consequences of the World Economic Recession—A Caution", http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP275.pdf, WEA)

Did the economic slump lead to strategic amendments in the way Japan sees the world
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the historian." 33 Perhaps the same is occasionally true of pundits. ■

And, diversionary war theory is false
Boehmer 2007 – political science professor at the University of Texas (Charles, Politics %26 Policy, 35:4, "The Effects of Economic Crisis, Domestic Discord, and State Efficacy on the Decision to Initiate Interstate Conflict", WEA)

This article examines the contemporaneous effect of low economic growth and domestic instability on the
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, interstate conflict, or both events occurring in the same year.3 

Even if those wars happen, they will be quick and insignificant
Bennett and Nordstrom 2000 – Department of Political Science at Penn State (Scott and Timothy, Journal of Conflict Resolution, "Foreign Policy Substitutability and Internal Economic Problems in Enduring Rivalries," February 2000, EBSCO)

When engaging in diversionary actions in response to economic problems, leaders will be most
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purposes, states should avoid conflict initiation against target states experiencing economic problems.

There is zero risk of a protectionist collapse
Anderson 9, head of Asia-Pacific Economics for UBS, (Jonathan, "Economist: Reality Check for Prophets of Protectionism," 8-17, http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-08-17/110225722.html) 

The short answer is no. We do not worry much about the protectionism issue
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perhaps longer. But we don’t think the real situation supports these fears.

Solar Industry

The Solar industry is strong now despite tariffs – adaption solves and no competitiveness internal

Alic, 12 ~[July 16^th, Jen, Oil Prices.Com, US Solar Companies can compete Despite Chinese Subsidies, http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/07/us-solar-companies-can-compete-despite-chinese-subsidies/-http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/07/us-solar-companies-can-compete-despite-chinese-subsidies/~]
The US solar industry is undergoing some serious growing pains, with bankruptcies and mergers
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never intended to last forever. Solar companies must adapt or shut down.

AT Bioterror

The attack will never happen
Palmquist 2008 (Matt, "How and why the threat of bioterrorism has been so greatly exaggerated." 5-19-08. http://www.miller-mccune.com/politics/bioterror-in-context-355)
Clark: The more I looked into it, I thought, "Jeez,
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work. And a lot of them had Ph.D.s.

No extinction
O’Neill 4 O’Neill 8/19/2004  ~[Brendan, "Weapons of Minimum Destruction" http://www.spiked-online.com/Articles/0000000CA694.htm~~]
David C Rapoport, professor of political science at University of California, Los Angeles
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attacker as to the attacked’. The Tigers have not used WMD since.

No lashout
Jenkins-Smith 04 – professor of government at Texas A%26M (Hank, "U.S. Public Response to Terrorism: Fault Lines or Bedrock," http://www.spp.gatech.edu/current-students/exams/Fall-2004_reviewmanuscript.pdf)
Our final contrasting set of expectations relate to the degree to which the public will
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, we find the weight of evidence supporting revisionist expectations of public opinion.
Overall, these results are inconsistent with the contention that highly charged events will result
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-ness to engage in military retaliation moderated significantly over the following year.

They assume mass hysteria—that assumption is false
Kindt 2006 (Michael, Deputy Director  of the USAF Counterproliferation Center, and adjunct professor at the Air  War College, "Building Population Resilience to Terror Attacks:  Unlearned Lessons from Military and Civilian Experience," November,  http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A461497%26Location=U2%26doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)
This understanding of resilience and how it can be enhanced is  particularly important in light
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behavior could potentially make panic more likely when a disaster  does occur.11 

AT Food

Multiple alt causes for international hunger
Shah, 08 http://www.globalissues.org/article/7/causes-of-hunger-are-related-to-poverty Causes of Hunger are related to Poverty Author and Page information by Anup Shah Last Updated Sunday, July 06, 2008

In a world of plenty, a huge number go hungry. Hunger is more
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¶ Over-fishing¶ Poor crop yield¶ Lack of democracy and rights

Resource wars won’t escalate to great power conflict
Dombrowski 4 – associate professor, US Naval War College’s Strategic Research Department (Peter, Naval War College Review, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0JIW/is_1_57/ai_113755359/print)
Unfortunately, Klare barely pauses to consider the possibility that diplomatic, economic, and
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, although perhaps not for a resource as fundamental and elemental as water.

AT Warming

Collapse impossible
Boucher 96 (Doug, "Not with a Bang but a Whimper," Science and Society, Fall, http://www.driftline.org/cgi-bin/archive/archive_msg.cgi?file=spoon-archives/marxism-international.archive/marxism-international_1998/marxism-international.9802%26msgnum=379%26start=32091%26end=32412)
The political danger of catastrophism is matched by the weakness of its scientific foundation.
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and further investigation often shows that the reasons for collapse were fundamentally political.

Warming tipping points inevitable – too late
NPR 9 (1/26, Global Warming Is Irreversible, Study Says, All Things Considered, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=99888903)

Climate change is essentially irreversible, according to a sobering new scientific study.¶ As
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this long-term effect in terms of sea level rise and drought. 

Long timeframe means intervening actors and tech solve
Michaels 7 – Cato senior fellow (Patrick, 2/2, Live with Climate Change, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=7502)

Consequently, the best policy is to live with some modest climate change now and
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reason to think environmental speculators won’t be rewarded in the future, too.

Tournament: UNI | Round: 5 | Opponent: Northwestern SS | Judge: Scott Siebert

Uniqueness

The post-convention bounce is a measure of Democratic enthusiasm – it means the pool of likely Democratic voters will be higher

Silver, 9/13/12 - statistician, author of FiveThirtyEight, one of Time’s 100 most influential people (Nate, "com/2012/09/13/sept-12-polls-since-conventions-point-to-decline-in-enthusiasm-gap/,"
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/-http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Why did President Obama get a bounce in the polls following the Democratic convention?
Part of it may simply be one of the functions that conventions have long served
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easy, especially in a year like this one with few undecided voters.

Overall expectations about the economy are positive – this is mobilizing Democrats and boosting fundraising

Easley, 9/11/12 (Jonathan, "Team Obama has post-convention glow," The Hill, http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/248879-team-obama-has-post-convention-glow-http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/248879-team-obama-has-post-convention-glow)

The Obama campaign has been flush with good news since the Democratic National Convention,
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the economy per se, or heightened enthusiasm for the Democratic Party generally."

Most election models predict a narrow Obama win but it’s reversible

Klein, 9/11/12 – the editor of Wonkblog and a columnist at the Washington Post, as well as a contributor to MSNBC and Bloomberg(Ezra, Washington Post, "The economy (slightly) favors Obama, not Romney,"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/11/the-economy-slightly-favors-obama-not-romney/-http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/11/the-economy-slightly-favors-obama-not-romney/
I learned this the hard way. Some months ago, I worked with political
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A slight lean towards Obama, but nothing that guarantees him a victory.

Even GOP internal polls prove Romney is losing key swing states – and it’s not a bounce

Karl, 9/11/11 – ABC News’ Senior Political Correspondent (Jonathan, "Republicans Nervously Eye Swing State Polls", http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/republicans-nervously-eye-swing-state-polls/-http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/republicans-nervously-eye-swing-state-polls/)
For Mitt Romney’s campaign, the outlook in the battleground states is even worse than
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the sense of gloom among top Republicans about the direction of the campaign.

Momentum matters and it’s against Romney

Marlantes, 9/13/12 - Liz Marlantes covers politics for the Monitor and is a regular contributor to the Monitor’s political blog (Liz, "On one issue, most Americans agree: They think President Obama will win", Christian Science Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2012/0913/On-one-issue-most-Americans-agree-They-think-President-Obama-will-win-video-http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2012/0913/On-one-issue-most-Americans-agree-They-think-President-Obama-will-win-video)
Our sense is that when expectations are this consistent – when one candidate is viewed
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media who are covering him. And that can have a deadly effect.
As we’ve seen in recent days, Romney’s bad decisions are often magnified as acts
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lens, it creates a dynamic that seems to make winning even harder.

Link

Obama is promoting an "all of the above" energy strategy – this allows him to distance himself from prior renewables scandals.  The plan makes Obama a target and will cost him the election

Farnam, 12 (T.W., Washington Post, 6/27, "Energy ads flood TV in swing states,"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/energy-ads/2012/06/27/gJQAD5MR7V_story.html-http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/energy-ads/2012/06/27/gJQAD5MR7V_story.html
Energy issues don’t spark much excitement among voters, ranking below health care, education
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for that sector, not simply for future government investment in that sector."

Obama needs a key energy policy to capitalize – perception of undelivered promises on energy

The Economist 3-6-2012; The emerging energy consensus  http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2012/03/energy-and-election-http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2012/03/energy-and-election
Now, as for the candidates. Barack Obama would have a hard time campaigning
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it’s clear that neither party is offering a compelling vision on this issue.