| 01/16/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
All neg cites before Fullerton are posted on Emory Holland-Rab neg. |
| 02/09/2013 | Tournament: NU | Round: 1 | Opponent: CUNY AT | Judge: Peterson A. Interpretation – The affirmative should defend a topical plan. All advantages should be causal results of the plan. 1) Federal Government refers to the national government.
Hartley ’96 (John, "American Civics", p. 39, Google Print) The term federal government refers to the … in washington, d.c. 2) Resolved means to enact by law
Words and Phrases ’64 (Permanent Edition) Definition of the word "resolve," given by Webster is "to … Bouvier as meaning "to establish by law". 2) Hijacks Education – Predictability is the basis of negative strategy which is key to clash and depth of discussion. The impact is rigorous testing of policies which is the only way to truly understand the world.
Zappen ’4 (James, Prof. Language and Literature – Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, "The Rebirth of Dialogue: Bakhtin, Socrates, and the Rhetorical Tradition", p. 35-36) Finally, Bakhtin describes the Socratic dialogue as a carnivalesque … evident in the Gorgias in Soocrates’ successive refutations and humiliations of Gorgias, Polus, and Callicles. |
| 02/09/2013 | Tournament: NU | Round: 1 | Opponent: CUNY AT | Judge: Peterson Thus we advocate the world of the resolution through a techno-nativist futurism:
Resolved: The United States Federal Government should substantially reduce restrictions on and/or substantially increase financial incentives for energy production in the United States of one or more of the following: crude oil, natural gas, solar power, wind power.Byrne and Toly 6—*John Byrne, Director Center for Energy and Environmental Policy %26 Public Policy at Delaware and Noah Toly, Research Associate Center for Energy and Environmental Policy ~Transforming Power eds. Byrne, Toly, %26 Glover p. 9-10~ Large-scale hydropower represents an attempt at a techno-fix of the … a proposal on social grounds is surely suspect (Byrne and Hoffman, 1996). Biggers 09 - Co-founder of the Coal Free Future Project-http://coalfreefutureproject.org/. ~Jeff Biggers, "Declaration of Clean Energy Independence: We Need a Road Map to a Coal Free Future-http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeff-biggers/declaration-of-clean-ener_b_565669.html," Huffington Post, Posted: May 6, 2010 07:54 AM, pg. http://tinyurl.com/2bg2kp4 In the wake of the worst coal mining disaster in 40 … it’s time to imagine a coal-free future for the rest of the country. |
| 02/09/2013 | Tournament: NU | Round: 1 | Opponent: CUNY AT | Judge: Peterson Making bare life the starting point of advocacy eliminates any historical specificity in our understanding of atrocities. Turning away from the ideology of perpetrators to the Muselmann as the universal witness to the consequences of all sovereignty prevents social learning and obliterates the actual memories of diverse victim testimony.Dominick LaCAPRA Bryce and Edith M. Bowmar Professor of Humanistic Studies @ Cornell ’4 History in Transit: experience, identity, critical theory p. 162-168 Agamben takes the Muselmann in isolation from … significant respects reconstructed a life "after Auschwitz."’ Dominick LaCAPRA Bryce and Edith M. Bowmar Professor of Humanistic Studies @ Cornell ’4 History in Transit: experience, identity, critical theory p. 11-13 The problem of the link between trauma and limit … dubious basis of a theo¬reticist philosophy of history. Dominick LaCAPRA Bryce and Edith M. Bowmar Professor of Humanistic Studies @ Cornell ’4 History in Transit: experience, identity, critical theory p. 180-185 Agamben not only sees Primo Levi as speaking … as not having a world or a form of life). Michael GARDINER Sociology @ Western Ontario ’97 "A Postmodern Utopia? Heller and Feher’s Critique of Messianic Marxism" Utopian Studies 8 (1) p. 89-123 EBSCO If we accept pluralism as an ineluctable … attempts at the absolute transcendence of modernity" (1988,4). D. Alternative—We should bear witness to the suffering of the victims of nuclear violence but not in terms of the theoretical system of sovereignty, bare life, and the Muselmann.Detaching witnessing from their absolutist representation of sovereignty treats is the only way to recognize and build on existing social antagonisms crucial for change.Ernesto LACLAU Political Theory @ Essex ’7 in Giorgio Agamben: Sovereignty and Life eds. Matthew Calarco and Steven DeCaroli p. 12-17 Let us start by considering the three theses in which … radical transformation of a whole hegemonic formation becomes possible. |
| 03/29/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 3 | Opponent: Georgetown EM | Judge: Watson, Wunderlich, and Neighbors
1NC=
TOPICALITY
Financial incentives are this list- the aff is not on it
Gouchoe 2k—North Carolina State University, National Renewable Energy Laboratory ~Susan, December 2000, Local Government and Community Programs and Incentives for Renewable Energy— National Report, http://seg.fsu.edu/Library/casestudy%20of%20incentives.pdf~~ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report presents a summary of the renewable energy programs and incentives of 45¶ communities in 23 states as collected and catalogued by the Interstate Renewable Energy¶ Council’s (IREC) Database of State Incentives for Renewable Energy (DSIRE) project. Also included are summaries of state initiatives that impact implementation of renewable energy¶ technologies on the local level. Programs and incentives in this report include:
COMMUNITY INVESTMENT %26 AWARENESS PROGRAMS
v Renewable Energy Projects
v Education %26 Assistance
v Green Pricing Programs
v Green Power Purchasing
FINANCIAL INCENTIVES
v Rebates, Grants, %26 Loans
v Tax Incentives
v Green Building Incentives
v Industrial Recruitment
RULES, REGULATIONS %26 POLICIES
v Solar %26 Wind Access
v Net Metering
v Construction %26 Design
v Contractor Licensing
v Equipment Certification
v Public Benefits Funds
v Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards
v Disclosure %26 Certification
Established in 1995, DSIRE is an ongoing project to summarize incentives, programs, and¶ policies for renewable energy. The project is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s¶ Office of Power Technologies and is managed by the North Carolina Solar Center. DSIRE on¶ Line makes the DSIRE database accessible via the web at:¶ http://www.ncsc.ncsu.edu/dsire.htm. The website is updated daily and includes search¶ capabilities for all incentives. In addition to state and local programs, the website features¶ utility programs and a searchable bibliography. VOTE NEGATIVE
PREDICTABLE LIMITS—the word incentives in the resolution is modified by financial to make it manageable. Going beyond makes the topic unpredictable. GROUND—financial incentives insure the aff has links to market disads and counterplans which are the only core negative ground across bi-directional energies. Holding the line key
IMMIGRATION REFORM
Will pass – capital key – issues will be worked out
CT POST 3 – 28 – 13 Connecticut Post http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Immigration-reform-gaining-support-in-Congress-4393187.php-http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Immigration-reform-gaining-support-in-Congress-4393187.php A Republican Party in desperate search for relevance to Latino voters. An expanded Democratic advantage in the Senate. A second-term President with his legacy on the line.
Does all that add up to enough to break decades of impasse and produce comprehensive immigration reform? As expectations — and tensions — rise, the answer won’t be long in coming.
A bipartisan bill could be filed in the Senate as early as next week, followed in relatively short order by a House bill, also crafted by a bipartisan group, aiming at a compromise on the key issue of citizenship.
The efforts are being applauded by President Barack Obama, who is using every ounce of his political clout to try to get comprehensive reform.
Obama said the time has come "to work up the political courage to do what’s required to be done."
"I expect a bill to be put forward. I expect a debate to begin next month. I want to sign that bill into law as soon as possible," Obama said at a White House naturalization ceremony.
In addition to the issue of eventual citizenship for 11 million undocumented immigrants, Congress is expected to address the need for temporary or guest worker programs.
Congress last passed comprehensive bipartisan reform legislation in 1986, when President Ronald Reagan signed a law that granted citizenship to several million undocumented immigrants and created a guest worker program.
Up until now, Republicans have opposed citizenship programs as an "amnesty" for lawbreakers who entered the country illegally, and labor has chafed at guest worker programs.
But Republican losses in the 2012 elections and increased public support for reform have many in the GOP talking compromise.
"If there is one issue that the two parties could produce something meaningful on in this Congress, it would be immigration," said Stephen Hess, a political expert at The Brookings Institution.
Hess said an eventual bill "will have lots of provisos, and it will go back and forth, but it would be hard not to produce something given the general feeling that something has to be produced."
More and more Republicans are moving toward immigration-reform measures as the party seeks to reach out to Latinos, the nation’s largest — and growing — minority voting bloc.
Public opinion is behind them.
A recent poll showed 63 percent of Americans supported a path to citizenship for undocumented workers provided they meet certain requirements, according to a survey by the Public Religion Research Institute.
Notable Republicans who have recently spoken in favor of compromise on citizenship proposals include Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky.; former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour; and Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis.
And a March report by the National Republican Committee, considered a "post mortem" on the 2012 elections, recommended the GOP embrace comprehensive immigration reform to shore up its shaky standing with minorities — Latinos, in particular.
Roy Beck, executive director of Numbers USA, which advocates lower numerical numbers on immigration, predicted a majority of Republican senators would oppose citizenship.
Groups like Numbers USA are working to hold GOP senators in line. They sent 13,000 emails to Kentucky voters that claimed Paul’s position was "more radical and pro-immigration than anything proposed by President Obama."
The group has targeted Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., one of the "Gang of Eight" senators writing the Senate bipartisan bill, as a lawmaker who favors foreign workers over unemployed South Carolinians.
Democrats from conservative-leaning states could also feel political heat.
Beck said if five to 10 Democrats in the Senate oppose a bill, proponents would need 10 to 15 Republicans to reach the 60 votes needed to cut off debate and vote on legislation.
"You do the math," Beck said.
In 2007, an effort to cut off debate on a Senate immigration reform bill died on a 46-53 vote.
But immigrant reform proponents, such as America’s Voice, say there is a "tectonic shift" in the GOP, and the Democrats also have expanded their Senate majority to 53-45, plus two independents who caucus with them. They predict the Senate will muster the votes necessary to pass a reform bill.
Still, it won’t be easy.
"We will have not only a few potholes, but a few near-death experiences along the way," said Frank Sharry, America’s Voice executive director. Plan’s unpopular.
Schmid 11— Sonja Schmid, Assistant professor in Science and Technology Studies at Virginia Tech ~Ross Carper (rosscarper@gmail.com), a writer based in Washington state, is the founding editor of the creative nonfiction project BeyondtheBracelet.com. ~"The Little Reactor That Could?" Issues in Science and Technology, http://www.issues.org/27.4/carper.html~~ Historically, nuclear energy has been entangled in one of the most polarizing debates in
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be off limits, just because information about them has traditionally been classified.
India relations
Los Angeles Times, 11/9/2012 (Other countries eagerly await U.S. immigration reform, p. http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/11/us-immigration-reform-eagerly-awaited-by-source-countries.html-http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/11/us-immigration-reform-eagerly-awaited-by-source-countries.html) "Comprehensive immigration reform will see expansion of skilled labor visas," predicted B.
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see the immigration opportunity as a bigger plus than not," he said. Nuclear war
Schaffer, Spring 2002 (Teresita – Director of the South Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Security, Washington Quarterly, p. Lexis) Washington’s increased interest in India since the late 1990s reflects India’s economic expansion and position
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out of poverty depends critically on good relations with the United States. BUDGET DA
Budgets are tight – right now biofuels are winning
Peterka 1/22/2013 ~Amanda Peterka, E%26E reporter, Airlines piggyback on DOD’s test flights, push for expanded production
http://www.eenews.net/Greenwire/2013/01/22/archive/5?terms=biofuels~~ The military also depends on Congress for funding to test and purchase biofuels, said John Heimlich, vice president and chief economist at Airlines for America, a consortium of 11 airlines that has entered a strategic alliance with the Navy to advance aviation biofuels.
"That’s one thing that makes the military effective," Heimlich said. "It’s not just their know-how and commitment. It’s their balance sheet."
But although the Pentagon could guarantee a market for aviation biofuels, the effort could be toppled by Washington budget battles.
So far, though, news from Washington has been encouraging for biofuel promoters. President Obama signed a defense authorization act last month that included funding for the military’s biofuel programs. And early this month, Obama signed a "fiscal cliff" package that extended tax incentives for the cellulosic biofuel and biodiesel industries.
To keep momentum going in the industry, Holland said, the military needs to be aggressive about putting those biofuel programs in place. The commercial aviation industry also needs to get off the ground, he said.
They force a tradeoff with the fuel budget
Eoyang 12 – National Security Director @ Third Way ~Mieke Eoyang, Julie Zelnick (Policy Advisor for National Security @ Third Way), %26 Ryan Fitzpatrick (Senior Policy Advisor for the Third Way Clean Energy Program), "Fuel Costs Squeeze Defense Budget," Third Way Digest, May 2012, pg. 1 In 2011, Congress passed the Budget Control Act, which put long-term limits on defense spending as part of a broader effort to curb the %2415.7 trillion federal budget deficit. Though DOD’s budget will grow over the next 10 years, it will rise at a smaller rate than previously projected. This means DOD’s topline budget going forward will be more flat. Rising costs in one area will come at the expense of others.1
Given such constraints, DOD must carefully scrutinize every cost and find efficiencies where it can. One of those costs is fuel—a critical component of military operations, especially for ground vehicles, ships, and aircraft. DOD spends about %2416 billion on fuel each year—more than double what UPS, FedEx, and DHL spend on global shipping operations, combined.3
Biofuels will lose out
Erwin 12 - Editor of National Defense Magazine ~Sandra I. Erwin, ’Policy Uncertainty’ Could Choke Development of Military Biofuels-http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=844," National Defense, 7/26/2012, pg. http://tinyurl.com/d82e34n To outsiders, the NDAA debate is just one more partisan battle in Washington’s
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be souring on U.S. biofuels investments, according to analysts.
Interest in capital-intensive industries such as energy is fading, said a July
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inside and outside the Defense Department, is critical to our national security."
Biofuels will end oil wars
Ventura 12 – Essayist and cultural critic @ Austin Chronicle ~Michael Ventura-http://www.austinchronicle.com/authors/michael-ventura/, "Letters at 3AM: A Big Picture and a Long Game," Austin Chronicle, Fri., Oct. 19, 2012-http://www.austinchronicle.com/issues/2012-10-19/, pg. http://tinyurl.com/col9hvh It’s like Alice watching the Queen of Hearts play cards and croquet: "Three
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daylong sessions" (The New York Times online, Sept. 12).
Let’s walk this immense map. We’ll stroll roughly 5,500 miles from the
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such a way that its chain can be yanked from almost any direction.
Focus on oil. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (www.eia.gov-http://www.eia.gov/), in 2011, 69% of U.S. oil originated in five countries, listed by volume: Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, and Nigeria. Of the next 10 largest sources, six are in the area we’ve walked: three in the Persian Gulf – Iraq, Kuwait, and Oman; three in Africa – Angola, Algeria, and Chad.
Imagine some general scenarios: A destabilized Tunisia impacts bordering Algeria. A destabilized Libya impacts bordering Algeria and Chad. Chad, destabilized by a destabilized Libya, in turn destabilizes Nigeria.
Move west from Africa. A destabilized Yemen impacts neighboring Saudi Arabia and Oman. A belligerent Iran impacts Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Oman.
Draw lines of possible crises this way and that, and the generals, admirals, and war commanders walking the big map must be bumping into one another with alarming frequency any way they turn. All for imported oil.
Oil dependence has put the United States in a strategically vulnerable and ultimately untenable position. There’s no way we can cover all that turf indefinitely. We’ve neither the money nor the manpower.
One issue is clear: The cessation of our participation in Iraq and Afghanistan won’t affect the overall situation.
"Large numbers of MRAPs ~armored troop carriers~ ... in Iraq and Afghanistan ~will be~ stored in Italy, where they could be transported for contingencies across Africa" (The New York Times online, July 27). "Contingencies" is a neutral word for war.
In 2008, President George W. Bush authorized "the newest regional headquarters, Africa Command" (The New York Times, Oct. 5, 2008, p.8). "Africom" is based in Stuttgart, Germany, "owing to local ~African~ sensitivities." Its commander, Gen. William E. Ward, "rejected criticisms that Africa Command would result in a militarization of foreign policy, and he said it was specifically structured for cooperative efforts," though he didn’t define what that meant.
Whatever it meant, President Obama has appointed a new commander. Gen. David M. Rodriguez is an officer of "extensive combat experience. ... ~He~ served two tours in Iraq and two tours in Afghanistan ... and later ~was~ deputy commander of allied forces there with responsibility for day-to-day management of the war. ... ~Rodriguez~ was one of the architects" of Obama’s Afghan surge (The New York Times online, Sept. 19).
Sounds like the Pentagon and the White House anticipate action in Africa.
The July 27 report cited above added that "MRAPs would be sent to warehouses in the western Pacific" and "significant numbers are stored in Southwest Asia."
The U.S. is building a base in Darwin, on the northwest tip of Australia, "as a new center of operations in Asia as it seeks to ... grapple with China’s rise" (The New York Times, Nov. 15, 2011, p.6).
Recently, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta crisscrossed the western Pacific from China to New Zealand assuring everybody that we’re not trying to "contain" China; we’re merely, in Panetta’s words, continuing "to be what we have been now for seven decades: the pivotal military power in the Asia-Pacific region" (The New York Times online, Sept. 13).
But something is true today that has not been true for most of those seven decades. According to the Central Intelligence Agency (www.cia.gov-http://www.cia.gov/), China is the No. 1 trading partner of Australia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, the Solomon Islands, Taiwan, and Thailand. And China is a major commercial player with everybody else in the region.
We’re defending these Pacific countries against their major trading partner?
"’What worries us is having to choose ~between the U.S. and China~ – we don’t want to be in that position,’ said the foreign minister of Indonesia" (The New York Times online, June 1). You bet they don’t.
China, Japan, and others are jockeying for some seemingly worthless (even uninhabited) islands in the South and East China seas.
"Quarrels over these hunks of volcanic rock wouldn’t matter much except that China, Vietnam, and the Philippines are running into one another in the race for oil" (The New York Times, Nov. 13, 2011, p.SR4). It’s about offshore drilling, that report says. "The South China Sea alone is estimated to have 61 billion barrels of petroleum – oil and gas – plus 54 billion yet to be discovered." Oil again.
In the long game, who wins influence over the area? The United States or China? Put it another way: Who wins? The depleted, financially struggling, politically deadlocked nation many thousands of miles away or the money- and manpower-rich rising nation playing in its own pool? (After all, the disputed areas are called the South and East China Seas.)
Again, the U.S. is setting itself up in a strategically untenable position.
Navy Secretary Ray Mabus said, "We buy too much fossil fuels from potentially or actually volatile places on earth" (NPR online, Sept. 26, 2011).
But the unexpected always happens, and that NPR report reveals something most unexpected:
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because dependence on foreign oil makes the U.S. military vulnerable."
Predictably, "the biofuel program has struck a nerve among Republicans," who are trying to limit military biofuel use by law (The New York Times online, Aug. 27). Their Big Oil donors know that if a military market makes biofuels cheap, then America’s airlines, railways, and truckers will want it too, and other oil-dependent nations will follow our lead.
Mostly for the sake of oil, the Obama administration’s strategies extend U.S. military reach beyond practical limits – limits that Mitt Romney, if elected, plans to strain still further. But the military has come up with an elegant solution: Strategically and environmentally, a U.S. military powered by biofuels could be a 21st century game-changer that ends the oil wars and drains Big Oil’s political dominance.
That is a real possibility. It is also possible that, walking a map bigger than a basketball court, our commanders will bump into one another indefinitely, attempting to defend an indefensible strategy.
AND, It reduces CO2
Alic 12 ~Jen Alic "4 Biofuels That Don’t Take Food Off People’s Tables," Oilprice.com Published: Wednesday, 12 Sep 2012 | 3:53 PM ET, pg. http://tinyurl.com/d4pmjqm Algae: Growing on Us
Algae produces some carbon dioxide when burned, but
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has the potential to produce more energy per hectare than any land crop. THORIUM PIC Text: The United States federal government should obtain electricity from modular light water nuclear reactors with electrical output less than 300 megawatt electrical for military bases in the United States.
The CP only incentivizes light water reactors. The plan’s open-ended incentive would be available for other SMR designs. Companies are designing thorium SMRs for military installations.
Dan Yurman, 4/13/2012. Publishes a blog on nuclear energy titled ’Idaho Samizdat’ and is a frequent contributor to ANS Nuclear Café. "Nuclear start-ups have stretch goals," The Energy Collective, http://theenergycollective.com/dan-yurman/82076/nuclear-start-ups-have-stretch-goals.
*Kirk Sorensen = NASA aerospace engineer On his website Kirk Sorensen writes that Flibe Energy is a new company that will
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military has independent regulatory authority and we would not be pursuing NRC licensing. Thorium would out-compete LWRs.
Megan Wait, 2/25/2011. "Thorium could trigger a nuclear renaissance, given its many advantages over uranium," Mining Weekly, http://www.miningweekly.com/article/thorium-could-trigger-nuclear-renaissance-given-its-many-advantages-over-uranium-2011-02-25. Mulder differs: "The cost of mining thorium and converting it to fuel is
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there are at least enough thorium reserves to last about 4 500 years. Undermines global uranium demand.
I.B Lambert, 2012. Geoscience Australia, Secretary General 34th IGC. "Global Uranium And Thorium Resources: Are They Adequate To Satisfy Demand Over The Next Half Century?" Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol 14, meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2012/EGU2012-2544.pdf. This presentation will consider the adequacy of global uranium and thorium resources to meet realistic
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make significant inroads into the huge resource base over the next half century. That destroys Kazakh economic modernization.
Gregory Gleason, 12/14/2011. Professor at the University of New Mexico and the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies. "KAZATOMPROM LOOKS EAST," Central Asia Caucasus Institute Analyst, http://cacianalyst.org/?q=node/5683/print. BACKGROUND: Kazakhstan’s uranium industry is a key part of the country’s diversification and modernization
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market in Asia, focusing on China, India, Japan and Korea. Kazakh economic development is a key model for Central Asia—instability would spread and trigger Central Asian conflict.
Margarita Assenova et al, 2008. Director of Institute for New Democracies @ CSIS; with Natalie Zajicova, Program Officer (IND); Janusz Bugajski, CSIS NEDP Director; Ilona Teleki, Deputy Director and Fellow (CSIS); Besian Bocka, Program Coordinator and Research Assistant (CSIS). "Kazakhstan’s Strategic Significance," CSIS Institute for New Democracies, http://eurodialogue.org/Kazakhstan-Strategic-Significance. The decision by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to award Kazakhstan the chairmanship of the organization for 2010 underscores a growing recognition of the country’s regional and continental importance. Kazakhstan is a strategic linchpin in the vast Central Asian-Caspian Basin zone, a region rich in energy resources and a potential gateway for commerce and communications between Europe and Asia.
However, it is also an area that faces an assortment of troubling security challenges. Ensuring a stable and secure Central Asia is important for the international interests of the United States and its European allies for several prescient reasons:
• Asian Security: Because of its proximity to Russia, China, Iran, and the South Asian sub-continent, Kazakhstan’s security and stability is an increasingly vital interest to all major powers. Kazakhstan’s tenure as chair of the OSCE will become an opportunity for greater multilateral cooperation in achieving this objective while strengthening the role and prestige of the OSCE throughout Central Asia.
• Afghanistan: Central Asia is a key staging area for U.S. and NATO military operations in Afghanistan against Taliban insurgents and Al Qaeda militants. Central Asia is a crucial conduit for U.S. and NATO troops and supplies into Afghanistan. U.S. offi cials recently reached new agreements with Russia, Kazakhstan, and other Central Asian countries to allow Afghanbound non-military supplies through their territories.
• Trans-National Terrorism: The Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan stimulates cross-border terrorism that may endanger the stability of several Central Asian neighbors and undermine Western interests. Central Asian states have been the victims of Afghanistan-based transnational terrorism. These states, including Kazakhstan, can support international efforts to counter regional terrorist networks.
• Organized Crime and Drug Traffi cking: Central Asia is an important transit region for narcotics traffi cking between Afghanistan and the countries of Europe and Asia. Joint initiatives that will enable the Kazakh government to control and monitor borders more effectively, intercept smuggling operations, and eradicate criminal networks will buttress international security and curtail funding to cross-border terrorist groups.
• Energy Security: Central Asia has the potential to be a vital energy source for Europe. The region contains a vast storehouse of oil and natural gas, which Europe urgently needs in order to lessen its reliance on Russian and Middle Eastern energy supplies. Disputes between Russia and several energy transit states, such as Ukraine, have increased Europe’s interest in developing direct supply lines between Europe and the Caspian countries.
Challenges to International Interests
Despite the strategic significance of Central Asia and the Caspian Basin, in recent years
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on the part of other major powers competing for influence in Central Asia.
Many Western experts conclude that Russia’s leaders have sought to use multi-national organizations, Moscow’s political connections and its economic leverage to assert greater control over ex-Soviet neighbors. There are reports that the Central Asian governments were pressured to curtail Western security interests, including limiting its military presence in the region by, for example, urging Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to evict the U.S. military from bases on their territory.
Kazakh leaders are supportive of a more effective American and European role in Central Asia
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enhance Astana’s role as a regional stabilizer.
Kazakhstan as a Regional Stabilizer
Despite having the largest territory and economy in Central Asia, Kazakhstan is not a
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hegemonic ambitions by larger countries that would undercut Kazakhstan’s political or economic independence.
While it is a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the
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an Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP) with NATO in January 2006.
NATO’s June 2004 summit affirmed the growing importance of Central Asia by designating the region as an area of "special focus" and stationing a liaison officer in the Kazakh capital of Astana in order to develop NATO assistance programs to modernize national military structures. A NATO Secretary General Special Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia was also appointed.
Astana has underscored that neither the CSTO nor the SCO should become exclusive military alliances
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become fully operational by 2011 and potentially available for international peace stability missions.
Kazakhstan is the only Central Asian country to have an Action Plan to assist in the reconstruction process in Afghanistan, including granting more than %243 million in the 2007-2008 fiscal year for social and infrastructure projects, humanitarian aid, and training for Afghan law enforcement and border patrol officers. For 2009-2011, Kazakhstan has committed an additional %245 million to improve the water supply and distribution infrastructure for shipments of grain and other commodities.
Kazakhstan also provides funding to support U.S. objectives in the region.
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economic development project aimed at strengthening Kazakhstan’s capacity to achieve its development goals."
Kazakhstan has initiated and championed the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building in Asia
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and move it closer to Europe.
Multi-National Counter-Terrorism
Kazakhstan has been combating several potential threats to its own stability and that of its
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to defend each country against major terrorist threats.
Regional Non-Proliferation
KazakhstanwasthefirstformerSovietrepublictoabandon its nuclear arsenal. It closed the largest nuclear weapons test site and has spearheaded regional denuclearization. Kazakh leaders have also made major progress in downgrading nearly all of the country’s highly enriched uranium, thus lessening the opportunities for such material to fall into the hands of foreign governments or terrorist groups. Astana’s non-proliferation initiatives have earned it praise from a number of international leaders.
With impetus from Kazakhstan, the Central Asian states have agreed to coordinate their nonproliferation
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the production and testing of Soviet nuclear weapons.
Counter-Narcotics Trafficking
Countering the trafficking of narcotics from Afghanistan through Central Asia is a major security challenge
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, and countering the financing of terrorist and criminal organizations.
Energy Security
Kazakhstan is a major producer and exporter of crude oil, projected to export three million barrels of oil per day, or 150 million tons per year, by 2015. Kazakhstan also possesses substantial natural gas reserves and some of the world’s largest reserves of uranium.
The three energy-rich states of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and
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with Azerbaijan across the Caspian Sea that would help supply the European market.
Astana is seeking to diversify its economy and avoid over-dependence on natural resources
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it has exposed in Kazakhstan’s banking and financial services sector.
Economic Development
Sustained economic development is a major determinant of long-term regional stability. Kazakhstan
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leading proponent of deepening economic cooperation in Central Asia and the Caspian region.
Kazakh leaders have focused on developing the Euro-Asian Economic Community (EurAsEC), an organization that also involves Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. More generally, Kazakhstan has strongly supported deeper economic integration among these states. Nonetheless, Astana opposes over-reliance on any single country because this would undermine Kazakhstan’s independence and integration into the global economy.
In positioning Kazakhstan as a potential economic hub and the core of a "Eurasian
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as Kazakhstan has played a major role in exporting capital to its neighbors. Central Asia conflict will escalate to US-Russian nuclear war—network-centric warfare compresses decision-making times and triggers miscalculation.
McDermott 11—Roger McDermott, Honorary senior fellow, department of politics and international relations, university of Kent at Canterbury and senior fellow in Eurasian military studies, Jamestown Foundation ~December 6, 2011, "General Makarov Highlights the "Risk" of Nuclear Conflict," Eurasia Daily Monitor, http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=38748%26tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=27%26cHash=dfb6e8da90b34a10f50382157e9bc117~~ In the current election season the Russian media has speculated that the Defense Minister Anatoliy
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than the old dogs of the Cold War would wish to chew on. ADVANTAGE CP
Text: The United States Federal Government should fully fund and expedite renewable energy generation, generator retrofits, and micro-grids for its installations based on the Smart Power Infrastructure Demonstration for Energy Reliability and Security program. The United States federal government should adopt a policy that it will not retaliate with nuclear weapons in the event of a blackout. The United States federal government should establish a nitrogen fertilizer tax of 16 cents per pound of nitrogen, and use the revenue from that tax to provide loan guarantees for farmers to procure biocharcoal technology. The United States Department of Defense should engage private contractors to construct and continually deploy at least 1,500 satellite-guided sailing ships with spinning silicon wafers capable of spraying eight gallons of .8 micron water droplets per second deployed evenly across the ocean through split contracts of less than %2450 million dollars each.
The United States federal government should research develop and deploy hydrogen based technologies produced from ash Solves grid
Ackerman 2012 ~Robert K. Ackerman has been the editor in chief of SIGNAL Magazine for more than a dozen years. A seasoned technology journalist, Ackerman also has served as a war correspondent covering the Iraq War embedded with the U.S. Army’s 101st Airborne Division. SIGNAL Magazine is the only international news magazine serving the critical information needs of government, military and industry decision makers active in the fields of C4ISR, information security, intelligence, research and development, electronics, and homeland security. http://www.afcea.org/content/?q=node/2877
"Cybersecurity and a power supply come together on local bases."~ No man may be an island, but each U.S. military base may become an energy island if a joint project among the Department of Energy, the Department of Homeland Security and the Defense Department comes to fruition. The effort aims to develop a microgrid that would supply a base with internal power independent of any external source that might fail as a result of enemy action.
Network security would be a key element of this energy microgrid. Facing the possibility of a cyberattack on the nation’s power grid, military bases must be able to sustain internal power with a degree of immunity from the online tactics employed by cybermarauders.
This program also seeks to blend a host of conventional and alternative energy sources into a single entity that would respond seamlessly to internal base power demands. Complicating the endeavor to link these energy sources is the requirement to provide secure network control that could interoperate with the public power grid but still be immune to cyberthreats that menace the larger network.
Known as the Smart Power Infrastructure Demonstration for Energy Reliability and Security, or SPIDERS, the project is a Defense Department joint capability technology demonstration (JCTD). It already is underway at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Oahu, Hawaii, and later phases will evaluate progressively sophisticated systems at Fort Collins, Colorado, and Camp Smith, Hawaii.
Melanie Johnson, an electrical engineer with the Army Corps of Engineers Construction Engineering Research Laboratory, explains that SPIDERS is designed to develop a template for bringing microgrid technology to military installations in the United States. Its success would have implications for installations outside the United States, particularly in operational settings, she points out.
Part of the SPIDERS technical management team, Johnson explains that a key element in SPIDERS is to provide network security for the communications and control systems within that microgrid environment. That security would be vital if a base loses power because of a cyberattack on the local power grid.
What sets SPIDERS apart from other microgrid efforts is its emphasis on cybersecurity and network communications. Security is a primary SPIDERS objective, Johnson says, adding that this includes information assurance certification and implementing emerging standards from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and Department of Energy organizations.
Adding cybersecurity to the microgrid complicates the picture and requires "a little critical thinking," Johnson observes. However, SPIDERS is not employing the traditional approach of first developing a control system and then overlaying security. Instead, security will be integrated into the system as it is developed. The result will be a comprehensive security solution that is tailored to the system, she offers.
The microgrid control system continually will monitor power quality and conditions in the regional power grid. If it detects instability or significant quality issues, it can alert monitors who would decide to disconnect the base from the external grid. The microgrid would continue to provide power to critical missions. CP solves warming.
Kunzig ’8 (Robert, winner of the Walter Sullivan Award for Excellence in Science Journalism, Scientific American, "Geoengineering: How to Cool Earth—At a Price", 10-20, https://sslaccess.elkresources.net/files/OTHER-MISC/Geoengineering_How%20to%20Cool%20Earth-At%20a%20Price.pdf)
Stephen Salter, an emeritus engineering professor at the University of Edinburgh, has come
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, England, by deploying ships over just 4 percent of the ocean. Solves through sequestration
Technology Review, 4/26/2007. "The Case for Burying Charcoal," published by MIT, http://www.technologyreview.com/news/407754/the-case-for-burying-charcoal/. Several states in this country and a number of Scandinavian countries are trying to supplant
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observed to reduce nitrous-oxide emissions from cultivated soil by 40 percent." Solves hydrogen
R%26D Magazine 3/26/13 ~"Ash from refuse could become hydrogen gas," Tue, 03/26/2013 - 12:31pm , pg. http://www.rdmag.com/news/2013/03/ash-refuse-could-become-hydrogen-gas Every year, millions of tons of environmentally harmful ash is produced worldwide, and is mostly dumped in landfill sites or, in some countries, used as construction material. The ash is what is left when rubbish has been burnt in thermal power stations. A researcher from Lund University in Sweden has now developed a technique to use the ash to produce hydrogen gas. The method is presented in a new thesis.
The technique has significant potential: 20 billion litres of hydrogen gas a year, or 56 gigawatt-hours (GWh). Calculated as electricity, the energy is the equivalent of the annual needs of around 11,000 detached houses. Hydrogen gas is valuable and is viewed by many as an increasingly important energy source, for example as a vehicle fuel.
"The ash can be used as a resource through recovery of hydrogen gas instead of being allowed to be released into the air as at present. Our ash deposits are like a goldmine", said Aamir Ilyas, Doctor of Water Resources Engineering at Lund University and the developer of the technique. Refuse incineration is a widespread practice in Europe.
The technique involves placing the ash in an oxygen-free environment. The ash is dampened with water, whereupon it forms hydrogen gas. The gas is sucked up through pipes and stored in tanks.
It is the heavy, grit-like bottom ash that is used. In combustion, a lighter fly ash is also formed. The bottom ash remains in quarantine, in the open air, at the site for up to six months to prevent leaching of environmentally harmful metals and the risk of hydrogen gas being formed, since accumulation of hydrogen during indoor storage can result in explosion.
"A bonus is that this method removes the risk of hydrogen gas. It also reduces the strain on our landfill sites." HYDROGEN ADVANTAGE
Squo solves – field testing
Military %26 Aerospace Electronics 3/1/13 ~"Navy to field-test hydrogen fuel cell- and solar-powered military renewable energy system," March 1, 2013, pg. http://www.militaryaerospace.com/articles/2013/03/Navy-renewable-energy.html CHINA LAKE NAVAL AIR WEAPONS STATION, Calif., 1 March 2013. Military renewable energy-http://www.militaryaerospace.com/articles/2011/04/military-renewable.html experts in the U.S. Navy are testing a trailer-mounted regenerative fuel cell-http://www.militaryaerospace.com/articles/2012/04/insitu-scaneagle-uav-completes-hydrogen-powered-fuel-cell-flight-test.html system that could save money and warfighter lives, Navy officials say.
The Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division at China Lake Naval Air Weapons Station in Ridgecrest, Calif., are evaluating a system that consists of a fuel cell and an array of solar panels that can be towed behind ground vehicles and generate about 5,000 Watts of electricity.
The fuel cell is an energy producing device that takes hydrogen in as its fuel, and through an electrochemical reaction, makes electricity. The only by-product of the process is water and heat. Electrolysis, running a current through water, produces hydrogen and oxygen. This system stores the hydrogen and then feeds it back into the fuel cell.
"Fuel cells are not a new idea, but this system is one-of-a-kind in that all it needs to run is water and sunshine, then it powers itself," says Matt Malone, an electronics engineer in the Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division Renewable Energy Office. "It is completely environmentally friendly and all of the fuel cell parts are recyclable. The system uses the water that it produces to refuel itself."
Users of the system would pour in water and point the solar arrays at the sun. Through the solar panels the sun generates electricity, which flows into the water to produce hydrogen and oxygen. The oxygen vents into the atmosphere and the hydrogen is stored.
During the day, command centers and other military energy users would be powered by solar energy and excess energy would be used to generate hydrogen. At night, the stored hydrogen would be sent through the fuel cell to create electricity.
China Lake Naval Air Weapons Station is a particularly good place to test solar energy. The base is in the high Mojave desert, and has cloudy days only rarely.
"The only by-products are water, which goes into a tank for use the next day, and heat." Malone says. "What you don’t have in this scenario is diesel fuel, battery storage, and toxic emissions into the air."
Malone and the Renewable Energy team wrote the requirements for the system and coordinated with a contractor that produced the hardware. The team will test and evaluate the system in a lab at China Lake before sending it out with troops for field testing.
"Since this system only needs water to operate, one of its biggest benefits is reducing the logistics requirements associated with fuel convoys, which could save lives," says Wayne Taylor, program manager for the Renewable Energy Office.
They can’t overcome the Hindenburg problem
Matthews 3/17/13 - Visiting reader in science @ Aston University ~Robert Matthews-http://www.thenational.ae/authors/robert-matthews "Hydrogen still on the back burner," Mar 17, 2013, The National, pg. http://www.thenational.ae/news/uae-news/technology/hydrogen-still-on-the-back-burner~~%23ixzz2OtSi9IKA-http://www.thenational.ae/news/uae-news/technology/hydrogen-still-on-the-back-burner The "hydrogen economy" is like the cure for the common cold: people have been talking about it for decades, but it never seems to get much closer.
The promise is well-known. In principle, hydrogen is a source of clean, carbon-free and plentiful energy. In practice, there are more than a few problems.
For a start, hydrogen may be the most plentiful element in the universe, but it isn’t just lying around waiting to be extracted from the ground like fossil fuels. As the lightest of all gases, most of it zoomed back into space aeons ago, and what is left is hard to access or distribute.
Then there’s the Hindenburg problem. The spectacular fire that brought the hydrogen-filled German airship crashing down in 1937 has scorched itself into the collective consciousness as a warning against using this highly flammable gas. No regional rebalancing or security dilemmas—the only empirical data goes our way. ~green~
Fettweis 11—Professor of Poli Sci @ Tulane University ~Christopher J. Fettweis, "The Superpower as Superhero: Hubris in U.S. Foreign Policy," Paper prepared for presentation at the 2011 meeting of the American Political Science Association, September 1-4, Seattle, WA, September 2011, pg. http://ssrn.com/abstract=1902154~~ The final and in some ways most important pathological belief generated by hubris places the
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people of the United States would be a lot better off as well. Decline facilitates US multilateralism—paves the way for a soft landing that prevents their transition impacts.
He 10—Professor of Political Science at Utah State University ~Kai He (Postdoctoral fellow in the Princeton-Harvard China and the World Program at Princeton University (2009–2010) and a Bradley fellow of the Lynda and Harry Bradley Foundation (2009–2010), "The hegemon’s choice between power and security: explaining US policy toward Asia after the Cold War," Review of International Studies (2010), 36, pg. 1121–1143~ When US policymakers perceive a rising or a stable hegemony, the anarchic nature of
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multilateral institutions in order to constrain other states’ behaviour for its own security.
US foreign policy towards Asia preliminarily supports the power-perception hegemonic model. When
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Asian allies, the US words with the sword became unreliable at best.
During President Clinton’s first tenure, how to revive US economy became the first priority
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eroding political and military influence after the strategic retreats in the early 1990s.
However, the US ’new economy’ based on information technology and computers revived policymakers’
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military engagement in the region through extensive security cooperation with other Asian states.
The selective engagement policy of the US in the late 1990s was substantially expanded by
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nature of the hegemonic dominion strategy during the George W. Bush administration.
What will the US do in the future? The power-perception hegemonic model
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depends on how US policymakers perceive the rise and fall of US hegemony.
If historical learning can help US policymakers cultivate a prudent perception regarding US hegemony,
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security in the future anarchic, multipolar world. Pg. 1141-1143
*Heg encourages power maximization
*Decline forces them to worry about security. Leads to multilateralism/OSB
*US willing to pay lock-in price to constrain peer competitor
*1990’s prove
*Multilateralism creates a soft landing during decline Multilat leads to global coop and power sharing ~GREEN~
Pouliot 11—Professor of Poli Sci @ McGill University ~Vincent Pouliot, "Multilateralism as an End in Itself," International Studies Perspectives (2011) 12, 18–26~ Because it rests on open, nondiscriminatory debate, and the routine exchange of viewpoints
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that further strengthen the impetus for multilateral dialog. Pg. 21-23 That cooperation is key to planetary survival—weak regulations risk extinction. ~GREEN~
Masciulli 11—Professor of Political Science @ St Thomas University ~Joseph Masciulli, "The Governance Challenge for Global Political and Technoscientific Leaders in an Era of Globalization and Globalizing Technologies," Bulletin of Science, Technology %26 Society February 2011 vol. 31 no. 1 pg. 3-5~ What is most to be feared is enhanced global disorder resulting from the combination of
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publishing scientific results on the Internet would contribute greatly to such negative outcomes.
To be sure, if the global disorder-emergency scenario occurred because of postmodern
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on the members having the greatest hard and soft power on planet Earth.
At the base of our concerns, I would argue, are human proclivities for
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and rogue market traders" (Whitman, 2005, p. 104).
In this dangerous world, if people are to have their human dignity recognized and
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to the narrow self-interest of individuals, corporations, and states.
I agree with Stephen Hawking that the long-term future of the human race
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hundred years, our future is in space." (Hawking, 2010)
Nonetheless, to reinvent humanity pluralistically in outer space and beyond will require securing our
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survival and security to their longer term agendas. Pg. 4-5 WARMING ADVANTAGE
SMR funding now
Lyons 3-14 ~Peter, Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Energy in the US Dept of Energy, Statement before the Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development, and Related Agencies Committee on Appropriations, http://appropriations.house.gov/uploadedfiles/hhrg-113-ap10-wstate-lyonsp-20130314.pdf~~
The Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) has achieved several major milestones since I’ve
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options that improve safety profiles and further reduce regulatory risk for these reactors. Warming inevitable and not anthropogenic.
Bell 3-19 ~Larry, climate, energy, and environmental writer for Forbes, University of Houston full/tenured Professor of Architecture; Endowed Professor of Space Architecture; Director of the Sasakawa International Center for Space Architecture; Head of the Graduate Program in Space Architecture; former full Professor/ Head of the University of Illinois Industrial Design Graduate Program; Associate Fellow, American Institute for Aeronautics and Astronautics, "The Feverish Hunt For Evidence Of A Man-Made Global Warming Crisis" http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2013/03/19/the-feverish-hunt-for-evidence-of-a-man-made-global-warming-crisis/2/~~
Indeed, climate really does change without any help from us, and we can
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of divergence and uncertainty…an example of garbage in, gospel out. CO2 boosts plant performance and prevents mass starvation—avoids extinction
Singer, PhD physics – Princeton University and professor of environmental science – UVA, consultant – NASA, GAO, DOE, NASA, Carter, PhD paleontology – University of Cambridge, adjunct research professor – Marine Geophysical Laboratory @ James Cook University, and Idso, PhD Geography – ASU, ’11
Regarding the first of these requirements, Tilman et al. note that in many
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of Earth’s plants is almost universally promoted by atmospheric CO2 enrichment. Warming is slowing because of sulfur aerosols.
Louise Gray-http://www.telegraph.co.uk/journalists/louise-gray/**, 11/26/2010. Environment Correspondent for the Telegraph. "Global warming has slowed because of pollution," The Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/8159991/Global-warming-has-slowed-because-of-pollution.html. The latest figures from more than 20 scientific institutions around the world show that global
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," she said. "Aerosols cool the climate by reflecting the sunlight." Reducing coal emissions would trigger rapid warming due to reduced aerosol cooling.
N. Chalmers et al, 1,2 E. J. Highwood,1 E. Hawkins,1,2 R. Sutton,1,2 L. J. Wilcox1, 8/21/2012. 1Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, U.K.; 2NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Reading, U.K. "Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of 2 near-term climate under RCP 2.6," Manuscript, accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, www.met.reading.ac.uk/~ed/home/chalmers_etal_2012_accepted.pdf.
*RCP="Representative Concentration Pathways." These are IPCC scenarios designed for use in climate models, that essentially project different scenarios for changes (or lack thereof) in global emissions. RCP2.6 is a scenario of significant emissions reductions. RCP4.5 is the baseline "business as usual" scenario.
*CDNC=cloud droplet number concentration The period during which global mean surface temperature in RCP2.6 is higher than
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simulations by Wigley ~1991~ and Johns et al. ~2011~. That would double warming and quickly take us above the "2-degree threshold."
Dr Andrew Glikson, 6/6/2011. Earth and paleoclimate science, Australian National University. "Global warming above 2° so far mitigated by accidental geo-engineering," Crikey, http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/06/06/global-warming-above-2%C2%B0-so-far-mitigated-by-accidental-geo-engineering/. According to NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Science climate reports, global warming is already
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level, resulting in near-doubling of global warming (Figure 1-http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110415_EnergyImbalancePaper.pdf). Negative feedbacks solve
Singer et al. 11 ~S Fred, PhD, a distinguished atmospheric physicist and first director of the U.S. Weather Satellite Service, Craig Idso, editor of the online magazine CO2 Science and author of several books and scholarly articles on the effects of carbon dioxide on plant and animal life, Robert M Carter, marine geologist and research professor at James Cook University in Queensland, Australia Climate Change Reconsidered: 2011 Interim Report~ In the 2009 NIPCC report, Idso and Singer (2009) discussed the plausibility
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temperature, the greater the sea-to-air flux of DMS).
Since the publication of the 2009 NIPCC report, additional empirical evidence has been found
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the albedo of clouds, thus reflecting more solar radiation back into space.
Working with climate and DMS production data from the region of the Barents Sea (
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is produced by mankind’s emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.
Kim et al. (2010) write that DMS ―represents 95% of
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citing Stefels et al., 2007, and Wolfe and Steinke, 1996.
Working in the coastal waters of Korea from 21 November to 11 December 2008,
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ocean may act to counter the effects of global warming in the future. GRID ADVANTAGE
Status quo solves grid cyber vulnerability
Paul Clark 12, MA Candidate, Intelligence/Terrorism Studies, American Military University; Senior Analyst, Chenega Federal Systems, 4/28/12, "The Risk of Disruption or Destruction of Critical U.S. Infrastructure by an Offensive Cyber Attack," http://blog.havagan.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/The-Risk-of-Disruption-or-Destruction-of-Critical-U.S.-Infrastructure-by-an-Offensive-Cyber-Attack.pdf
An attack against the electrical grid is a reasonable threat scenario since power systems are
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establish robust security guidelines and cyber security measures (Gohn and Wheelock 2010). No cyber terrorism—capability or motivaiton.
Conway 11 — Maura Conway, Lecturer in International Security in the School of Law and Government at Dublin City University, 2011 ("Against Cyberterrorism: Why cyber-based terrorist attacks are unlikely to occur," Communications of the ACM, Volume 54, Number 2, February, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via ACM Online) Three Arguments Against Cyberterrorism
In my opinion, the three most compelling arguments against cyberterrorism are:
The argument of Technological Complexity;
The argument regarding 9/11 and the Image Factor; and
The argument regarding 9/11 and the Accident Issue.
The first argument is treated in the academic literature; the second and third arguments are not, but ought to be. None of these are angles to which journalists appear to have devoted a lot of thought or given adequate consideration.
In the speech mentioned earlier, FBI Director Mueller observed "Terrorists have shown a clear interest in pursuing hacking skills. And they will either train their own recruits or hire outsiders, with an eye toward combining physical attacks with cyber attacks." That may very well be true, but the argument from Technological Complexity underlines that ’wanting’ to do something is quite different from having the ability to do the same. Here’s why:
Violent jihadis’ IT knowledge is not superior. For example, in research carried out
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mastery of the complex systems necessary to carry out a successful cyberterrorist attack.
Real-world attacks are difficult enough. What are often viewed as relatively unsophisticated real-world attacks undertaken by highly educated individuals are routinely unsuccessful. One only has to consider the failed car bomb attacks planned and carried out by medical doctors in central London and at Glasgow airport in June 2007.
Hiring hackers would compromise operational security. The only remaining option is to retain "
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would simply have to trust in same. This would be very risky.
So on the basis of technical know-how alone cyberterror attack is not imminent
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11 will not just be prominent, but pictures will always be provided.
The problem with respect to cyber-terrorism is that many of the attack scenarios put forward, from shutting down the electric power grid to contaminating a major water supply, fail on this account: they are unlikely to have easily captured, spectacular (live, moving) images associated with them, something we—as an audience—have been primed for by the attack on the World Trade Center on 9/11.
The only cyberterrorism scenario that would fall into this category is interfering with air traffic
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cyberterrorism is perhaps the most compelling; yet it is very rarely mentioned.
In 2004, Howard Schmidt, former White House Cybersecurity Coordinator, remarked to the U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary regarding Nimda and Code Red that "we to this day don’t know the source of that. It could have very easily been a terrorist."4 This observation betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature and purposes of terrorism, particularly its attention-getting and communicative functions.
A terrorist attack with the potential to be hidden, portrayed as an accident,
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a large audience for the second plane as it hit the second tower.
Alternatively, think about the massive electric failure that took place in the northeastern U.S. in August 2003: if it was a terrorist attack—and I’m not suggesting that it was—but if it was, it would have been a spectacular failure.
Conclusion
Given the high cost—not just in terms of money, but also time
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or obtain via other media sources, is not in our near future.
So why then the persistent treatment of cyberterrorism on the part of journalists? Well, in this instance, science fiction-type fears appear to trump rational calculation almost every time. And I haven’t even begun to discuss how the media discourse has clearly influenced the pronouncements of policymakers. The plan causes space weaponization
Maybury 12 Chief Scientist-USAF, "Energy Horizons: United States Air Force Energy S%26T Vision 2011-2026," 1/31, http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/usaf/energy.pdf Space is the ―ultimate high ground, providing access to every part of the
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plants decrease in size, their utility on board space based assets increases. Causes arms racing and war
Bruce Gagnon (Coordinator of the Global Network Against Weapons %26 Nuclear Power in Space) 2001 "STATEMENT OF CONCERN " http://www.space4peace.org/mission.htm Another obstacle exists though. If the U.S. can "control"
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(Idaho) are already heavily involved in space nuclear power production efforts. No Asia wars — international organizations and stability.
Desker, ’8
~Barry, Dean of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, At the IISS-JIIA Conference 2-4 June 2008, "Why War is Unlikely in Asia: Facing the Challenge from China", http://www.iiss.org/conferences/asias-strategic-challenges-in-search-of-a-common-agenda/conference-papers/why-war-in-asia-remains-unlikely-barry-desker/-http://www.iiss.org/conferences/asias-strategic-challenges-in-search-of-a-common-agenda/conference-papers/why-war-in-asia-remains-unlikely-barry-desker/~~ War in Asia is thinkable but it is unlikely. The Asia-Pacific region
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United States will be to embark on a course of self-restraint. No escalation.
Berry, ’1
~Nicholas, Center for Defense Information Senior Analyst, Defense Monitor, "Disputes don’t escalate", XXX:4, May, http://www.cdi.org/dm/2001/issue4/asiansecurity.html-http://www.cdi.org/dm/2001/issue4/asiansecurity.html~~ What emerges from this historical memory is an environment loaded with latent hostility that makes
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remains unlikely. Nevertheless, security cooperation in this setting will be difficult. |
| 03/29/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 3 | Opponent: Georgetown EM | Judge: Watson, Wunderlich, and Neighbors Grid solvency
It also solves their lashout impact The counterplan solves the grid advantage—it implements a system called SPIDERS which creates islanded micro-grids on bases using renewable power, diesel generations, and fuel cell batteries. These hybrid systems solve islanding without intermittency—advanced computer systems manage which fuel sources to use and conserve energy where necessary. They are also resistant to cyber-attack—the military has designed and demonstrated the program with cyberwar in mind And, more evidence—SPIDERS uses the best available context-specific renewable technology and distributed generation to provide a secure microgrid. Ackerman 2012 ~Robert K. Ackerman has been the editor in chief of SIGNAL Magazine for more than a dozen years. A seasoned technology journalist, Ackerman also has served as a war correspondent covering the Iraq War embedded with the U.S. Army’s 101st Airborne Division. SIGNAL Magazine is the only international news magazine serving the critical information needs of government, military and industry decision makers active in the fields of C4ISR, information security, intelligence, research and development, electronics, and homeland security. http://www.afcea.org/content/?q=node/2877
"Cybersecurity and a power supply come together on local bases."~ Johnson shares that planners are examining the relationship between the interface with the microgrid control system and the base’s enterprise network. Of particular interest is how that relationship would open the microgrid to vulnerabilities from outside the installation. Issues include the types of communications traffic that would be allowed in and out of the microgrid control system network.
According to its guidance, SPIDERS’ primary objectives are to protect task-critical assets from power loss due to cyberattack; integrate renewable and other distributed generational electricity to power task-critical assets in times of emergency; sustain critical operations during prolonged power outages; and manage installation electrical power consumption to reduce petroleum demand and carbon footprint.
SPIDERS will exploit existing energy assets such as solar arrays, wind generators and other
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microgrid allows the renewable power to stay online while maintaining necessary safety measures.
The program might tweak the bases’ energy sources by upgrading a legacy generator that lacks the necessary capacity, for example. Otherwise, it will focus on existing assets. Johnson emphasizes that SPIDERS will be energy-source agnostic. And—Prefer our evidence—the Pentagon Official IN CHARGE OF BASES supports the CP and think it solves—prefer that to their random studies and industry hacks Karol, 2012 ~Writer and Editor for TakePart.com, a website devoted to socially relevant news. August. http://news.yahoo.com/u-militarys-secret-weapon-going-green-181348275.html-http://news.yahoo.com/u-militarys-secret-weapon-going-green-181348275.html~~ "The White House announced Tuesday it is inviting contract proposals from green energy firms to boost the Army’s use of renewable energy," said The Hill-http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/242593-army-announces-renewable-energy-contracts-as-white-house-continues-green-push. "The administration is making %247 billion available for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to spend on locally-generated biomass, geothermal, solar or wind energy-http://www.takepart.com/article/2012/08/02/mitt-romney-will-end-tax-credit-clean-wind-energy for up to 30 years."
"The move is part of a broader White House-led push to green the armed forces, over GOP opposition, which claims the efforts are a waste of taxpayer dollars. The Defense Department has set ambitious targets, aiming for renewable sources-http://www.takepart.com/article/2012/07/18/americans-dont-know-squat-about-energy-issues to account for 25 percent of its energy by 2025, with the Army working toward getting 1 gigawatt of power from green sources by that year."
This follows on the heels of a report from Forbes-http://www.forbes.com/sites/uciliawang/2012/08/06/u-s-military-opens-up-16m-acres-for-renewable-energy-projects/ that, "The U.S. Department of Defense plans to open up 16 million acres of its land for renewable energy development, which it hopes will create a boom of solar, wind and geothermal projects and provide clean power to military bases, the department announced Monday."
"Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and the Interior Secretary Ken Salazar signed a memorandum of understanding to work together on promoting renewable energy generation projects on public land that has historically been restricted for military uses. About 13 million of those 16 million acres are located in western U.S., where a lot of solar, wind and geothermal power development already has been taking place on private and other types of public land."
The article also notes that a majority of our military bases rely on traditional power grids and need to utilize backup generators during blackouts. This is one reason "The military has been vocal about its support of renewable energy, from electricity to transportation fuels, that it says will help it become more self-sufficient and reduce its vulnerabilities in the battle fields."
"Renewable energy will allow a military base to maintain critical operations for weeks or months if an electric power grid goes down," said Dorothy Robyn-http://www.icfi.com/about/our-people/non-icf/r/robyn-dorothy, deputy under secretary of defense for installations and environment.
While all this sounds great, not everyone is in agreement.
NPR-http://www.npr.org/2012/07/05/156325905/militarys-green-energy-criticized-by-congress reported that, "The military says it’s dangerous to depend exclusively on fossil
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on this kind of research at a time when defense dollars are shrinking."
The National Journal-http://www.nationaljournal.com/energy/insiders-gop-won-t-stop-pentagon-s-green-energy-push-20120725 made this observation more explicit last month, saying, "Republicans
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—and lives, because American fuel convoys are often targeted in attacks."
And the naysayers may be too late anyway.
The Department of Defense-http://www.defense.gov/home/features/2010/1010_energy/ website has a landing page dedicated to over a dozen articles (plus a link to a couple hundred more in its digital archive) with topics such as "Naval Station Opens Green Training Facility," DOD Must Have Petroleum Fuel Alternatives," "Air Force Moves Forward With Green Energy."
It appears that the convoys, planes, and ships are already well on their way to a green future. And, none of their solvency deficits apply—SPIDERS are a new innovation of microgrids that solve islanding—this cites a survey of over 75 military and energy officials SERDP and ESTCP, 2012~SERDP and ESTCP are the Department of Defense’s environmental research programs, harnessing the latest science and technology to improve DoD’s environmental performance, reduce costs, and enhance and sustain mission capabilities.¶ DoD Study Finds Microgrids Offer Improved Energy Security for DoD Installations¶ 07/10/2012¶ http://serdp-estcp.org/News-and-Events/News-Announcements/Program-News/DoD-study-finds-microgrids-offer-improved-energy-security-for-DoD-installations-http://serdp-estcp.org/News-and-Events/News-Announcements/Program-News/DoD-study-finds-microgrids-offer-improved-energy-security-for-DoD-installations~~ Advanced microgrids offer a cost-effective solution to military installations’ growing vulnerability to the
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market opportunities for DoD in the area of demand response and ancillary services.
The study highlights the extent of ongoing microgrid work across DoD. It identified 44
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resources, and the ability to operate in a grid-tied manner.
The analysis confirms the value of microgrids to DoD. The combination of on-site energy generation and storage, together with the microgrid’s ability to manage local energy supply and demand, allow installations to shed non-essential loads and maintain mission-critical loads if the electric grid is disrupted.
The report illustrates the largely untapped potential of moving to smarter, next generation microgrids
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assets during normal operation and generate financial revenue by using advanced ancillary services.
One important finding is that there will be no "one size fits all"
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are configured so that they can earn value helping to meet those needs.
2NC Solves Warming
The CP solves warming through carbon sequestration and the prevention of NO2 and methane emissions from agriculture—biochar would be able to sequester more CO2 than the totality of fossil fuel emissions by the end of the century without displacing coal—that’s the MIT Tech Review. Prefer our evidence—it cites professors of soil and crop sciences at Cornell. The counterplan is a complex scientific science—defer to experts. It’s the closest we’ve got to a silver bullet.
Alok Jha, 3/13/2009. Green technology correspondent for the Guardian (UK). "’Biochar’ goes industrial with giant microwaves to lock carbon in charcoal," The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/13/charcoal-carbon-http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/13/charcoal-carbon. Giant microwave ovens that can "cook" wood into charcoal could become our best
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global production of carbon from fossil fuels stands at 8.5bn tonnes. Solves quickly—we’d be out of the danger zone by the middle of the century.
Tim Flannery, 1/11/2008. Division of Environmental and Life Sciences Macquarie Uni. "Australian of the Year 2007, Tim Flannery talks bio char and why we need to move into the renewable age," Beyond Zero Emissions, http://www.beyondzeroemissions.org/2008/03/19/tim-flannery-australian-of-the-year-2007-talks-bio-char-why-we-need-to-move-into-the-renewable-age-http://www.beyondzeroemissions.org/2008/03/19/tim-flannery-australian-of-the-year-2007-talks-bio-char-why-we-need-to-move-into-the-renewable-age. Matthew Wright: In a recent address to the American Geophysical Union, Dr.
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continue and maintain the huge populations that we’ve got around the world now?
Tim Flannery: Well that’s a very good question. I mean I suppose implicit
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key factors in the success or failure of us humans to do that. Sequestration through ag can offset a third of emissions—equivalent in magnitude to shifting to low-carbon energy.
Claire Schaffnit-Chatterjee, 9/19/2011. Deutsche Bank Research. "Mitigating climate change through agriculture," www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000278568/Mitigating+climate+change+through+agriculture%3A+An+untapped+potential.pdf-http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000278568/Mitigating+climate+change+through+agriculture%3A+An+untapped+potential.pdf. The IPCC estimates the global technical potential for GHG mitigation in agriculture production at 5
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already present in the atmosphere, which only terrestrial carbon sequestration can do. Also, we have two internal links to solving warming independent of sequestration. First, nitrous oxide—we decrease emissions both because biochar reduces nitrate leakage from soil, and because the fertilizer tax itself decreases nitrogen usage—that’s Merel, Konrad, and MIT Tech Review. That outweigh’s the aff internal link —- a. NOx traps heat at different wavelengths, reductions cause a disproportionate drop in GHG effects.
Science Newsline, 4/2/2012. "Fertilizer Use Responsible for Increase in Nitrous Oxide in Atmosphere," http://www.sciencenewsline.com/articles/2012040219260050.html-http://www.sciencenewsline.com/articles/2012040219260050.html. Limiting nitrous oxide emissions could be part of a first step toward reducing all greenhouse
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us a little more time in figuring out how to reduce CO2 emissions." b. Inevitable increases in ag production mean NO2 will swamp CO2 in the coming century.
Dave S. Reay et al, 5/13/2012. School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh. "Global agriculture and nitrous oxide emissions," Nature, http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n6/full/nclimate1458.html~~%23/affil-auth-http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n6/full/nclimate1458.html. Projected N2O emissions associated with agriculture are sensitive to drivers such as human population,
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per unit of fertilizer nitrogen applied, and per unit of agricultural product73-http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n6/full/nclimate1458.html. Second, methane—biochar increases soil efficiency, which decreases emissions.
John Gaunt and Johannes Lehmann, 2008. College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Cornell University. "Energy Balance and Emissions Associated with Biochar Sequestration and Pyrolysis Bioenergy Production," Environ. Sci. Technol. 2008, 42, 4152–4158, http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es071361i. Preliminary research (12) suggests that nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (
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used more efficiently by crops in situations where biochar is applied to soil. Methane outweighs CO2—consensus of experts agree
Noam Mohr, August 2005. Research Scientist @ PETA with a physic degrees from University of Pennsylvania. "A New Global Warming Strategy: How Environmentalists are Overlooking Vegetarianism as the Most Effective Tool Against Climate Change in Our Lifetimes," An EarthSave International Report. This is a serious miscalculation. Data published by Dr. James Hansen and others5
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in wetlands—the primary natural source of methane.22 pg. 2 2NC Fettweis—Empirics
Hegemonic stability theory is wrong, that’s Fettweis— - Global stability exists because of self-policing, not unipolarity. The coexistence of unipolarity and a decrease in global wars is a coincidence. The US can’t force peace on the world if the majority is not politically vested in sustaining the current order.
2. They misread allied threat perception—no country has ever completely contracted out
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Russia, China or any "rogue states" to be a threat. 3. The only empirical data sides with us—the US made massive military cuts in the 90s without triggering regional arm races or security dilemmas. US military posture has empirically had no impact on regional security dynamics. Empirics trump neocon insanity—you can’t make accurate IR predictions without some grounding in the past. Their impact is based on hubris. Their defense of unipolarity is plagued by conceptual confusion and methodological laziness.
Yang 10—Ph.D Candidate in the Politics %26 International Relations Program @ University of Southern California ~Xiangfeng Yang, The Unipolar Challenge: Power, Culture and Authority and the Advent of War, March 25, 2010, pg. http://www.stockholm.sgir.eu/uploads/The%20Unipolar%20Challenge,%203rd%20Draft.pdf-http://www.stockholm.sgir.eu/uploads/The Unipolar Challenge, 3rd Draft.pdf~ Turning the conventional wisdom on its head, the positivist intellectual enterprise on unipolarity is
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or the United States will do in the future.8 pg. 13 US restraint is risk free—interdependence and institutions will keep the peace.
Fettweis 10—Professor of Political Science at Tulane University ~Christopher J. Fettweis, Dangerous Times?: The International Politics of Great Power Peace, 2010~ If the only thing standing between the world and chaos is U.S.
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such a world would be virtually risk free. pg. 175-176 Retrenchment solves the impact—theory and the empirical record prove.
MacDonald %26 Parent 11—Professor of Political Science at Williams College %26 Professor of Political Science at University of Miami ~Paul K. MacDonald %26 Joseph M. Parent, "Graceful Decline? The Surprising Success of Great Power Retrenchment," International Security, Vol. 35, No. 4 (Spring 2011), pp. 7–44~ Our findings are directly relevant to what appears to be an impending great power transition
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security competition that sets in when an aspiring hegemon appears in Eurasia." 92
Contrary to these predictions, our analysis suggests some grounds for optimism. Based on
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is a greater geopolitical gamble than withdrawing to cheaper, more defensible frontiers.
Some observers might dispute our conclusions, arguing that hegemonic transitions are more conflict prone
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readily identify and eliminate extraneous burdens without exposing vulnerabilities or exciting domestic populations.
We believe the empirical record supports these conclusions. In particular, periods of hegemonic
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ability to sustain its economic performance or engage in foreign policy adventurism. 94
Most important, the United States is not in free fall. Extrapolating the data
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exacerbate U.S. grand strategic problems and risk unnecessary clashes. 101 ~STOP HERE IF SHORT ON TIME~ Restraint increases our leverage over alliances—economic and diplomatic tools preserve our influence.
Fettweis 10—Professor of Political Science at Tulane University ~Christopher J. Fettweis, Dangerous Times?: The International Politics of Great Power Peace, 2010~ Finally, formal alliances are hardly necessary to influence other countries. If there comes
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own foreign policy decisions to weak friends on the periphery. Pg. 186 No allied freak out—they have a different threat perception.
Fettweis 11—Professor of Political Science @ Tulane University ~Christopher J. Fettweis, "Free Riding or Restraint? Examining European Grand Strategy," Comparative Strategy, Volume 30 Issue 4, pg. 2011, pg. 316–332~ If U.S. security guarantees are really the primary explanation for European restraint
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Washington to be their only protector in a dangerous world. Pg. 324
2NC Multilat – solves impact
The multilateralism turn solves their terminal impacts for three reasons – - Cooperation – it generates self-perpetuating cooperation and confidence that obviates the need for imposed solutions – even if conflicts emerge they can be managed through consensus and legitimate bargaining – that’s Pouillot.
2. Security lock-in – multilateral commitments create constraints that lock great powers into policies that preserve the status quo – creates a soft landing for heg – that’s He. 3. Leadership – unipolarity causes policymakers to maximize power rather than responsibly managing global institutions and creating frameworks of cooperation – irresponsible unilateralism prompts backlash but leading from behind gives everybody a stake in the global system. That’s Ikenberry. This solves their terminal impacts – their evidence asserts a need for US leadership – this is not a defense of material increases in power.
2NC Overview—Tech
Weak global regulations risk the accidental release and weaponization of convergence technologies like nanotech, AI, robotics, and biotechnology. We must shift our decision calculus away from short-term thinking to guarantee planetary survival. That’s Masciulli. AND, our impact is 100 million times greater than nuclear war—You should vote neg even if 99% of humanity will perish.
Ćirković 8—Professor of Physics @ University of Novi Sad in Serbia and Senior Research Associate at the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade ~Milan M. Ćirković Ph.D. (Fellow of the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies), "How can we reduce the risk of human extinction?," Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, September 17, 2008, pg. http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/print/2606~~ The risks from anthropogenic hazards appear at present larger than those from natural ones.
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may increase as biotechnologies continue to improve at a rate rivaling Moore’s Law.
Farther out in time are technologies that remain theoretical but might be developed this century
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"Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe."
Such remote risks may seem academic in a world plagued by immediate problems, such as global poverty, HIV, and climate change. But as intimidating as these problems are, they do not threaten human existence. In discussing the risk of nuclear winter, Carl Sagan emphasized the astronomical toll of human extinction:
A nuclear war imperils all of our descendants, for as long as there will
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future of their descendants. Extinction is the undoing of the human enterprise.
There is a discontinuity between risks that threaten 10 percent or even 99 percent of
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, and thus deserve support regardless of how much one worries about extinction.
2NC AT: N/U—Reintervene/Latch-on
They have to win this arg to win the debate— - This is pure conjecture—it is counter-intuitive to think the US would use its declining material power by going to war instead of finding ways to shore up remaining power. We challenge them to provide ONE HISORICAL EXAMPLE that supports their claim.
2. The alternative is multilat—the 90s prove that the US decline will cause it to latch on to multilateral institutions as a way to lock-in the current order. That’s our He ev. History should be your guide—it is a superior predictor because it is not tainted by ideology.
3. Unipolarity causes the impact—unipolarity and the political polarization that it produces are the primary cause of Bush-style unilateralism. Decline will force Congress to shift to the center and support multilateralism. Their lashout scenario will only occur in world of US unipolarity. That’s Kupchan %26 Trubowitz. The only comprehensive study proves no transition impact.
MacDonald %26 Parent 11—Professor of Political Science at Williams College %26 Professor of Political Science at University of Miami ~Paul K. MacDonald %26 Joseph M. Parent, "Graceful Decline? The Surprising Success of Great Power Retrenchment," International Security, Vol. 35, No. 4 (Spring 2011), pp. 7–44~ In this article, we question the logic and evidence of the retrenchment pessimists.
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eighteen cases of acute relative decline since 1870 and advance three main arguments.
First, we challenge the retrenchment pessimists’ claim that domestic or international constraints inhibit the
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, draw down their military obligations, and impose adjustments on domestic populations.
Second, we find that the magnitude of relative decline helps explain the extent of
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of retrenchment in as much as 61 percent of the cases we examined.
Third, we argue that the rate of decline helps explain what forms great power
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that failed to retrench recovered their relative position. Pg. 9-10 2NC AT: Ocean Acidification
No risk of catastrophic acidification.
Christopher Monckton, 2010. Chief Policy Advisor—Science and Public Policy Institute, former Special Advisor to UK Prime Minister Thatcher. "ANSWERS TO A FISHERMAN’S TESTIMONY ABOUT OCEAN ACIDIFICATION", 4-28, http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/answers_to_fishermans_testimony.pdf-http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/answers_to_fishermans_testimony.pdf. Ocean acidification is real. It has been documented by researchers all over the world
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make any measurable difference to the acid-base balance of the oceans. Meta-analysis confirms acidification has only minor effects. And experiments OVERESTIMATE the effects by ignoring adaptation and community effects.
Iris Hendriks et al, 2010. C.M. Duarte, and M. Alvarez, Department of Global Change Research—Mediterranean Institute of Advanced Studies, "Vulnerability of marine biodiversity to ocean acidification: A meta-analysis," Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 86(2), January. The meta-analysis of our database, which includes 372 published experimental evaluations with
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pH that may protect associated calcifying organisms from the impacts of ocean acidification. Hydrogen Sulfide
No increases in UV from ozone depletion. And any consequence is miniscule.
Singer and Crandall 91 ~S. Fred, Prof Env Sci—UVA and former Dir. US Weather Satellite Program, and Candace, Editorial Dir.—Science and Environmental Policy Project, San Diego Union-Tribune, "Is the ozone doomsday scenerio based on hype?", 7-7, L/N~ If the amount of ozone is reduced, more UV reaches the earth’s surface.)
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the issue of CFC control is now based on politics rather than science.
No Warming 2NC
CO2 and temperature leveling out – plus, not anthropogenic
Bell 3-19 ~Larry, climate, energy, and environmental writer for Forbes, University of Houston full/tenured Professor of Architecture; Endowed Professor of Space Architecture; Director of the Sasakawa International Center for Space Architecture; Head of the Graduate Program in Space Architecture; former full Professor/ Head of the University of Illinois Industrial Design Graduate Program; Associate Fellow, American Institute for Aeronautics and Astronautics, "The Feverish Hunt For Evidence Of A Man-Made Global Warming Crisis" http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2013/03/19/the-feverish-hunt-for-evidence-of-a-man-made-global-warming-crisis/2/~~
A recent study conducted by researchers at Grenoble University in France and published in Science
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real climate crisis will arrive when our planet’s warm Ice Age vacation ends. No Warming – AT: "Tipping Point"
Newest study shows "tipping points" are overblown – warming will be slow and predictable
Zeller 3-2 ~Tom Zeller Jr, senior writer for Huffington Post, Tipping Points: Can Humanity Break The Planet?, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tom-zeller-jr/global-tipping-points_b_2793154.html~~
As for Planet Earth, a paper published Thursday in the journal Trends in Ecology
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, and lead to unjustified fatalism about the catastrophic effects of tipping points." 2NC—No Impact
Reject their try or die impact framing—they cherry-pick the worst case scenarios and assume they are likely—every scientific study concludes that the likelihood of such devastation is virtually zero
Eastin et al. 11 ~Josh, Professor of Political Science at the University of Washington, Reiner Grundmann and Aseem Prakash, "The two limits debates: "Limits to Growth" and climate change," Futures, February, Vol 43, Issue 1, pp. 16-26, ScienceDirect~ And Hjerpe and Linnér point out, ’The IPCC ’describes scenarios as ’
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, socio-economic development, and technological change.’ ~50~-http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328710000352
There is no probability assigned to the various scenarios which opens the way for decision makers to pick the one that aligns with their preconceptions. In this sense, both LtG and IPCC have used scenarios in order to communicate the possibility of a dystopian future, not as a prediction, but as a reminder that something needs to be done urgently if we are to prevent the worst. 2NC—No Extinction Adaptation means no catastrophic impact to warming
Kenny 12 ~April 9, 2012, Charles, senior fellow at the Center for Global Development, a Schwartz fellow at the New America Foundation, and author, most recently, of Getting Better: Why Global Development Is Succeeding and How We Can Improve the World Even More., "Not Too Hot to Handle," http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/04/09/not_too_hot_to_handle?print=yes%26hidecomments=yes%26page=full~~ But for all international diplomats appear desperate to affirm the self-worth of pessimists
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all hope like a steerage class passenger in the bowels of the Titanic.
Start with the economy. The Stern Review, led by the distinguished British economist
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for Afghanistan, a little more than six times as rich for Ethiopia.
It’s worth emphasizing that the Stern report suggests that the costs of dramatically reducing greenhouse
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economy would keep on expanding, according to the data that Stern uses.
And what about the impact on global health? Suggestions that malaria has already spread
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a small factor in the toll of malaria deaths into the foreseeable future.
What about other diseases? Christian Zimmermann at the University of Connecticut and Douglas Gollin
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for the consequences of climate change." We can deal with this one.
It’s the same with agriculture. Global warming will have many negative (and a
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increase in rice yields in Indonesia between 1970 and 2006, for example.
Again, while climate change will make extreme weather events and natural disasters like flooding
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use regulations, and public infrastructure like flood defenses that lower death tolls.
Let’s also not forget how human psychology works. Too many environmentalists suggest that dealing
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like that — or at the very least, isn’t like that yet.
So, if you’re really just looking for a reason to strap on the "end of the world is nigh" placards and go for a walk, you can find better excuses — like, say, the threat of global thermonuclear war or a rogue asteroid. The fight to curb greenhouse gas emissions is one for the hard-nosed optimist. No escalation.
Berry, ’1
~Nicholas, Center for Defense Information Senior Analyst, Defense Monitor, "Disputes don’t escalate", XXX:4, May, http://www.cdi.org/dm/2001/issue4/asiansecurity.html-http://www.cdi.org/dm/2001/issue4/asiansecurity.html~~ What emerges from this historical memory is an environment loaded with latent hostility that makes the region’s international security relations a fragmented array of bilateral ties . In effect, the widespread latent hostility in the region inhibits multilateral initiatives,
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remains unlikely. Nevertheless, security cooperation in this setting will be difficult. Impact
Causes accidental wars that outweigh and turn every nuclear war scenario
Mitchell, et al 01 -Associate Professor of Communication and Director of Debate at the University of Pittsburgh
(Dr. Gordon, ISIS Briefing on Ballistic Missile Defence, "Missile Defence: Trans-Atlantic Diplomacy at a Crossroads", No. 6 July, http://www.isisuk.demon.co.uk/0811/isis/uk/bmd/no6.html-http://www.isisuk.demon.co.uk/0811/isis/uk/bmd/no6.html) The dizzying speed of space warfare would introduce intense ’use or lose’ pressure into strategic
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space could plunge the world into the most destructive military conflict ever seen.
And, preemption means it’s a larger internal link to great power war
Englehart, 8 – patent litigation attorney (Alex, "COMMON GROUND IN THE SKY: EXTENDING THE 1967 OUTER SPACE TREATY TO RECONCILE U.S. AND CHINESE SECURITY INTERESTS," 17 Pac. Rim L. %26 Pol’y J. 133, lexis) D. An Effective U.S. Space Weapons Deployment Would Neutralize the Effectiveness of ICBMs and Create a Powerful Incentive for Nuclear Preemptive Strikes
In addition to the strategic interplay between space-based weapons and ASATs discussed above
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countries, allowing it to use its own ICBMs with relative impunity. n61
If the United States starts to deploy space-based interceptors that can shoot down
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in order to avoid the total collapse of its strategic nuclear deterrent. n64
E. Beyond the Inevitable Direct Harm to Sino-American Relations, the Deployment
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weapons, which have the potential to undermine the effectiveness of ICBMs. n72
Russia has long been a strategic player in the space weapons arena. In the
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sure to inflame Russia and drive it further away from the United States. Turns warming – cooperation Star 9, University of Sydney, 8/2/09, (Stephen Starr and Peter King, , "Nuclear suicide", Sunday, 02 August 2009, http://www.sciencealert.com.au/opinions/20090208-19496.html) But there is little evidence yet that either the government or the Commission is fully alert to the most momentous truth of the present era: Our best science now predicts that nuclear arsenals are fundamentally incompatible with continued human existence. It is imperative that the message coming from scientists in the US, Russia and elsewhere about the environmental consequences of nuclear war be included in the general debate about the control and abolition of nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, the nuclear weapon states apparently remain oblivious to the climatic, ecological and biological consequences of nuclear war. No "environmental impact statement" has ever been created for the US or Russian nuclear weaponry, which is one of the reasons why there still are 22,000 intact nuclear weapons in their deployed and reserve arsenals. However, new peer-reviewed studies done at several US universities predict the detonation of even a tiny fraction of the global nuclear arsenal will result in major changes in the global climate and massive destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer (which protects the Earth from deadly UV light). Even a "regional" nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, fought with 100 Hiroshima-size weapons, is predicted to loft five million tons of smoke above cloud level; there it would block about 10 per cent of warming sunlight from reaching the surface of the Northern Hemisphere. This would produce average surface temperatures colder than any experienced for the last 1000 years. The smoke would remain in the stratosphere for more than a decade and seriously impact global climate. It would probably be too cold to grow wheat in Canada for several years; grain exports would likely cease from grain-exporting nations .and global nuclear famine would result, Within a few years, most of the already-hungry human populations could perish, and the populations of any nation dependent upon grain imports would be at risk.Link SMRs massively reduce the cost of space based nuclear – the military wants to adopt it because it’s perceived as the high ground – that’s Maybury from 2012
Their ev is from 2004 doesn’t assume the plan, and is about commercial SBN
It will be deployed—Air Force wants to, they just need small reactor tech
Puiu 12 Tibi Puiu – Studies Mechanical Engineering, Feb 23, 2012 "Air Force plans buildings a solar power station in space and nuclear-powered spacecraft"
http://billionyearplan.blogspot.com/2012/08/air-force-plans-buildings-solar-power.html Last week, the U.S. Air Force released a report in which
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course, safety is a major concern, as outlined in the report. Their author says civilian SNP is unpopular but concludes DoD SMRs change the game
Downey, 4 (Lt. Col.-USAF, April, "Flying Reactors: The Political Feasibility of Nuclear Power in Space," http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a425874.pdf) The report also emphasizes the necessity for superior United States space based intelligence, surveillance
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orbit around the Earth will certainly be of concern to numerous international stakeholders. Air force plans prove
Leonard David (columnist for Space Insider) February 2012 "Air Force Eyes Nuclear Reactors, Beamed Power for Spacecraft" http://www.space.com/14643-air-force-space-nuclear-reactors-power-beaming.html The U.S. Air Force has laid out a new vision for its
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possibility of on-orbit refueling for these systems is now being studied.
The plan enables space weaponization
McCall 6 Chair, USAF Scientific Advisory Board, "Spacecraft Bus Technoligies," http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/vistas/stechch3.pdf All current spacecraft are either power limited or restricted in some measure by inadequate electrical
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joint programs with Russia offer a low cost alternative and should be pursued. Water
No water wars—their ev is hype.
Katz 11—Lecturer of Geography and Environmental Studies @ University of Haifa ~Dr. David Katz (PhD in Natural Resource Policy %26 MA in Applied Economics @ University of Michigan), "Hydro-Political Hyperbole: Examining Incentives for Overemphasizing the Risks of Water Wars," Global Environmental Politics, Volume 11, Number 1, February 2011, pp. 12-35~ Evidence and Perception
In sum, despite some instances of violent conflict over water, there is little
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, 43 and may have mitigating effects on any water-conflict link.
As a consequence of accumulated research, many scholars have concluded that risks of water
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to one, and are five times more likely to be cited.48
This article will now turn to offering possible explanations for the persistence and popularity of such declarations despite the bulk of expert opinion downplaying the risks of water wars.
Incentives to Stress a Water War Scenario
Incentives Presented in Existing Literature
Observers have noted that various actors may have incentives to stress or even exaggerate the
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to evaluate such warnings more critically.pg. 17-18 1nc AND, Scarcity encourages cooperation that will spillover to other issues
Hammoud 11—MA in International Affairs @ Lebanese American University ~Rayan Amine Hammoud, Water Scarcity As A Window of Opportunity For A Peaceful Settlement In The Middle East, A thesis Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in International Affairs, Lebanese American University, January 2011~ While water war scenarios in the Middle East are by all means viable and legitimate
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an interest in playing the waiting game, water imposes its own rules.
Severe water shortages cannot and do not wait, especially in times of severe droughts
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the conflict by violent means. Ultimately, peaceful alternatives must be considered.
It is out of these considerations that the perspective and rationale of this dissertation evolved
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other parts of the world, such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and India.
The main aim of this paper is not to explore the potential solutions for water
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from previous approaches to the Middle East conflict in at least two ways.
First of all, it does not assume that the question of water is a
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may set the groundwork for a wider peaceful resolution in the long term.
Secondly, this approach assumes that the water crisis in the Middle East represents a
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the economic and social interests of their constituencies. Pg. 4-6
*Forces Hawks to negotiate
*Water overrides ideological disputes Failure risks world war III
Sterling 11—MA in European Studies ~Lord Sterling BS. in Poli Sci and History), "The Battle for Syria: How World War III Will Begin," Before It’s News, Wednesday, August 22, 2012 23:50, pg. http://tinyurl.com/d8nnzug~~ As the alliance of NATO, Israel and the conservative Gulf Cooperative Council (monarchies
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objects to the use of armed American drone aircraft against targets in Pakistan.
The horrific False Flag massacres that the NATO, Israeli and GCC trained/equipped
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of "doing something to save the Syrian civilians from the Assad government".
The issue of armed intervention was a key matter at the SCO Summit June 6th and 7th in Beijing. Massive military intervention by Russia and China is being planned for if the NATO/Israeli/GCC alliance crosses the line with a military intervention against the Syrian, Iranian, and Lebanese nations. This military intervention has a most profound danger of not only involving weapons-of-mass-destruction but of beginning the Third World War%21
Russia is actively preparing a significant number of its best ground forces for a rapid
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Georgia into friendly Armenia to link up with Iranian forces northwest of Tehran.
The Russians will seek to establish their dominance in the Caucasus and Caspian states and to finally secure military facilities on the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. They are apt to be supported by a large number of Chinese ground troops and fighter aircraft deploying through allied Pakistan into Iran.
The Russian and Chinese armed forces will come prepared for full NBC (nuclear,
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Navy and NATO navies, with additional naval clashes in the Caspian Sea.
Israeli and NATO forces may seek to do an ’end run’ around any Russian
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Europe and North America and against Israel and certain GCC states (link-http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2012/02/war-on-iran-syria-what-they-are-not.html).
The World at large has entered the most dangerous time in Human History as events continue to unfold in the Middle East and enter their climax phase.
AT: Indo-Pak
Aff can’t solve—Indian dams makes war and collapse inevitable—aff doesn’t solve because desal doesn’t solve territory issues and no salt water to desalinate
Daly 12—John C.K. Daly is the chief analyst at the energy news site Oilprice.com. Dr. Daly received his Ph.D. in 1986 from the School of Slavonic and East European Studies, University of London ~April 13, 2012, "Troubled Waters: Has The India-Pakistan Water Conflict Reached A Boiling Point?" http://www.economywatch.com/economy-business-and-finance-news/has-the-india-pakistan-water-conflict-reached-a-boiling-point.13-04.html~~ In an editorial entitled "War With India Inevitable" published in Lahore’s ’The Nation’ on Sunday, the newspaper’s Editor-in-Chief and Nazaria-i-Pakistan Trust Chairman, Majid Nizami, asked his fellow citizens to prepare for a war with India over water issues.
Nizami also told those attending the "Pakistan-India relations: Our rulers’ new wishes" session at Aiwan-e-Karkunan Tehrik-e-Pakistan, that, "Indian hostilities and conspiracies against the country will never end until she is taught a lesson."
While The Nation – a conservative daily that is part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group – may have a circulation of just 20,000 readers, its close ties to Pakistan’s highest military circles mean that Nizami’s comments should hardly be rejected out of hand.
Tellingly, Nizami’s audience at the session also included some high ranking Pakistani officials, including Nazaria-i-Pakistan Vice Chairman Dr Rafique Ahmed; Pakistan Movement Workers-Trust Chairman, retired Colonel Jamshed Ahmed Tareen; former Foreign Secretary Shamshad Ahmed Khan; Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan Secretary General Qari Zawar Bahadur; retired Air Marshall Khurished Anwar Mirza; retired Brigadier Hamid Saeed Akhtar and Jamaat-e-Islami Lahore Chief Ameer-ul-Azeem, among others.
At the heart of the issue are Pakistan’s concerns over India’s ongoing construction of two hydroelectric dams on the upper reaches of the Indus River. The Indus, which begins in Indian-controlled Kashmir and flows through both India and Pakistan, is Pakistan’s primary freshwater source, on which 90 percent of its agriculture depends.
The 45-megawatt, 190-feet tall Nimoo-Bazgo concrete dam and the 44-megawatt Chutak hydroelectric power project, Islamabad believes, will reduce the Indus River’s flow towards Pakistan, and are capable of storing up to 4.23 billion cubic feet of water, which will violate the terms of the bilateral 1960 Indus Water Treaty.
"Already the Indus is experiencing water flows that are down 30 percent from its normal levels. According to a number of Pakistani agriculture and water experts, the nation is heading towards a massive water shortage in the next couple of years due to insufficient water management practices and storage capacity, which will be exacerbated by the twin Indian hydroelectric projects."
So, if push comes to shove, who’s got Pakistan’s back? China.
During the Boao Forum for Asia held in China’s southern Hainan Island on 1 April, Pakistan and China agreed to support each other "in all circumstances" and vowed to uphold their sovereignty and territorial integrity at all costs.
Pakistani Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani told Chinese Executive Vice Premier Li Keqiang: "China’s friend is our friend, and China’s enemy is ours," adding that Pakistan considers China’s security as its own security and supports China’s position on Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang.
Li replied that China would support Pakistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in every situation, telling Gilani: "No matter what changes take place at international level, we will uphold Pakistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity."
It might be noted here that in October 1962, coinciding with the Cuban missile crisis, India and China fought a brief but bitter war along their disputed Himalayan border. Fifty years later, China and India have yet to resolve their border issues over Kashmir; and China continues to claim most of India’s Arunachal Pradesh territory to the base of the Himalayas in the absence of any definitive treaty delineating the border.
Kashmir today also remains the site of the world’s largest and most militarized territorial dispute with portions under the de facto administration of China (Aksai Chin), India (Jammu and Kashmir), and Pakistan (Azad Kashmir and Northern Areas).
No guesses therefore as to whom Beijing might back should Pakistani-Indian tensions continue to rise.
Accordingly, the only way to keep the peace may be, as to paraphrase Ronald Reagan in Berlin: "Prime Minister Singh, tear down those dams%21" Just don’t bet on it. Water wars won’t escalate between India and Pakistan—they’ve already weathered the perfect storm and other issues cause tension
Alam 2—PhD in political geography from Durham University on the negotiations between India and Pakistan and a trained mediator ~Undala, "Questioning the water wars rationale: a case study of the Indus Waters Treaty," Dec 1, 2002, http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-2567100/Questioning-the-water-wars-rationale.html~~ The water wars rationale forecasts war between countries dependent upon a shared water resource if
AND
). Another source of Indo-Pakistan tensions was the Indus waters dispute. More d
Water wars are a myth—overwhelming empirical evidence
Weinthal and Vengosh 11—*Erika Weinthal is Associate Professor of Environmental Policy at the Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke University and Avner Vengosh is a Professor of Geochemistry and Water Quality and chair of the Water and Air Resources program at the Nicholas School of Environment in Duke University ~ed. Richard Parker, Marni Sommer, "Water and Conflict," ch. 26, Routledge Handbook of Global Public Health, Taylor %26 Francis, Feb 1, 2011~ By the end of the twentieth century, it was thus widely assumed that water
AND
)—continues to appropriate more than 90 per cent of the Nile River.
With the maturation of the field of water conflict and cooperation, the notion of
AND
violent clashes in Ethiopia over access to water in the Somali border region. Cooperation over water outweighs—interdependence prevents conflict
Deen 6—Thalif, internationally awarded U.N. bureau chief and editor of the U.N. edition of the IPS journal ~"’Water Wars’ a Myth, Say Experts," 8/25/06, Inter Press Service News Agency, http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=34465~~ STOCKHOLM, Aug 25 (IPS)—The world’s future wars will be fought not
AND
resources, countries can build trust and prevent conflict," argues the study, Cooperation creates resilient institutions that unite countries during crises
Wolf et al. 5—Associate Professor of Geography at Oregon State University and Director of the Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database ~Aaron, also professor of geography at Oregon State University, Annika Kramer, research fellow, Alexander Carius, Director of Adelphi Research in Berlin, and Geoffrey Dabelko, Director of the Environmental Change and Security Project at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, "Water Can Be a Pathway to Peace, Not War," Global Policy Forum, June 2005, http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/natres/water/2005/06peace.htm~~ These apocalyptic warnings fly in the face of history: no nations have gone to
AND
exchanged data and information on the river basin throughout the Viet Nam War. |
| 03/30/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
001
“Financial incentive” is a distinct category that requires a cash transfer – excludes tax incentives.
Christiansen and Böhmer 5 (Hans, Senior Economist in the OECD Directorate for Financial, Fiscal and Enterprise Affairs, and Alexander, co-ordinator of the MENA-OECD Investment Programme in the OECD’s Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs, Investment Division, “Incentives and Free Zones In The MENA Region: A Preliminary Stocktaking,” MENA-OECD Investment Programme, OECD, Working Group 2, p. 4-5, www.oecd.org/dataoecd/56/22/36086747.pdf)
I. Toward a common definition of incentives and FEZs¶ a) Investment incentives¶ 3. … of relocating corporate units (e.g. job training cost; expatriation support; and temporary wage subsidies). Vote negative-
a. explodes limits- allows any different financial mechanisms that we can’t be prepared for
b. ground- we lose core disads to up front government spending
010
Will pass – capital key – issues will be worked out
CT POST 3 – 28 – 13 Connecticut Post http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Immigration-reform-gaining-support-in-Congress-4393187.php A Republican Party in desperate search for relevance to … along the way," said Frank Sharry, America's Voice executive director. Plan costs MASSIVE CAPITAL
COHEN 3 – 18 – 13 Executive Director, Columbia University's Earth Institute Steven Cohen, Hiding Renewables Inside the 'All of the Above' Energy Strategy Won't Work, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-cohen/hiding-renewables-inside_b_2899833.html Even worse, no sooner had the president announced his meager … and constant presidential leadership, rapid change is unlikely. Will include high skilled visas
IMASSERA 3 – 26 – 13 http://www.imassera.com/obama-urges-congress-to-restart-immigration-talks/2420307/ President Obama got the new week off to a fast start by … extended families.
The legislation is expected to receive strong bipartisan support. Turns china relations and key to India relations
Los Angeles Times, 11/9/2012 (Other countries eagerly await U.S. immigration reform, p. http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/11/us-immigration-reform-eagerly-awaited-by-source-countries.html) "Comprehensive immigration reform will see … brain drain, and I think they still see the immigration opportunity as a bigger plus than not," he said. Nuclear war
Schaffer, Spring 2002 (Teresita – Director of the South Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Security, Washington Quarterly, p. Lexis) Washington's increased interest in India since the late 1990s …out of poverty depends critically on good relations with the United States. 011
Wind kills bats
CRYAN 11 Research Biologist, United States Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center Paul M. Cryan, Wind Turbines as Landscape Impediments to the migratory connectivity of Bats, Environmental Law 41: 355-370 Several species of insectivorous bats migrate hundreds to thousands of kilometers each spring and autumn, crossing a wide variety of landscape features and ecosystems on their journey.1 These … for researching and finding practical solutions to the problem are lacking. Keystone species
BEST 07 Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology Environmental Impacts of Wind-Energy Projects (2007), p. 71 We can make three general predictions about the large-scale and … they originate from. Unfortunately this type of information is nearly impossible to obtain. Extinction
Tutchton 11 General Counsel at WildEarth Guardians, House Natural Resources Committee Hearing Jay; "The Endangered Species Act: How Litigation is Costing Jobs and Impeding True Recovery Efforts,” 12-6, LexisNexis The vast variety of species with which humans share this … effort to save the diversity of life on Earth. 100
Nuclear power demand increasing now and will buoy uranium prices, but gains could be reversed if other energy sources undercut nuclear.
Brett Arends, 1/18/2013. “Uranium: Mining a Contrarian Play With Big Potential,” Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323783704578245791855437054.html. Investors looking for a bold contrarian bet should consider … prove cheaper or more abundant than expected. renewable energy makes flexibility more important than energy output – causes gas to out-compete nuclear.
John Bartlett, 9/20/2012. M.S. with honors in environmental science and policy, with a focus on environmental economics, from the University of Chicago, senior research analyst at the Milken Institute specializing in economic and technology research for the Institute's Center for Accelerating Energy Solutions. Before joining the Institute, he worked as an energy analyst and a SunShot Fellow with the U.S. Department of Energy. “Can nuclear power compete as the electric grid requires greater flexibility?” Milken Institute, http://www.milkeninstitute.org/newsroom/newsroom.taf?function=currencyOfIdeasandblogID=575. When electric utilities and grid operators consider new generation, … electricity generation as well as electricity demands stretching far into the future.
That destroys Kazakh economic modernization.
Gregory Gleason, 12/14/2011. Professor at the University of New Mexico and the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies. “KAZATOMPROM LOOKS EAST,” Central Asia Caucasus Institute Analyst, http://cacianalyst.org/?q=node/5683/print. BACKGROUND: Kazakhstan’s uranium industry is …supply market in Asia, focusing on China, India, Japan and Korea. Kazakh economic development is a key model for Central Asia—instability would spread and trigger Central Asian conflict.
Margarita Assenova et al, 2008. Director of Institute for New Democracies @ CSIS; with Natalie Zajicova, Program Officer (IND); Janusz Bugajski, CSIS NEDP Director; Ilona Teleki, Deputy Director and Fellow (CSIS); Besian Bocka, Program Coordinator and Research Assistant (CSIS). “Kazakhstan’s Strategic Significance,” CSIS Institute for New Democracies, http://eurodialogue.org/Kazakhstan-Strategic-Significance. The decision by the Organization for Security and … a major role in exporting capital to its neighbors. Central Asia conflict will escalate to US-Russian nuclear war network-centric warfare compresses decision-making times and triggers miscalculation.
McDermott 11—Roger McDermott, Honorary senior fellow, department of politics and international relations, university of Kent at Canterbury and senior fellow in Eurasian military studies, Jamestown Foundation December 6, 2011, “General Makarov Highlights the “Risk” of Nuclear Conflict,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=38748andtx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=27andcHash=dfb6e8da90b34a10f50382157e9bc117 In the current election season the Russian …tougher bone than the old dogs of the Cold War would wish to chew on.
110
Text: The 50 state governments and relevant subnational governments should establish a renewable energy payment program that creates long-term purchase contracts for new qualifying facilities in the United States that use solar power for energy production to ensure a reasonable rate of return and establish renewable portfolio standards.
States can apply renewable energy credits in their RPS programs to meet the pricing requirements of Feed-in Tariffs – prevents pre-emption and solves the Aff.
M. Ryan Hurley 11, partner in the Rose Law Group. November, http://www.roselawgroup.com/_includes/documents/GAS28_04proof2Hurley.pdf FeRC OR FICTION? The reverse auction mechanism also proved to be a … to adopt one would be much better spent revising existing RPS programs. 111
The United States Department of Defense should engage private contractors to construct and continually deploy at least 1,500 satellite-guided sailing ships with spinning silicon wafers capable of spraying eight gallons of .8 micron water droplets per second deployed evenly across the ocean through split contracts of less than $50 million dollars each.
The United States federal government should establish a nitrogen fertilizer tax of 16 cents per pound of nitrogen, and use the revenue from that tax to provide loan guarantees for farmers to procure biocharcoal technology.
The United States Federal Government should end arms sales and the approval of arms sales to Taiwan. The United States Federal government should ask Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to immediately pay a goodwill visit to China. CP solves warming - geoengineering
Kunzig ‘8 (Robert, winner of the Walter Sullivan Award for Excellence in Science Journalism, Scientific American, “Geoengineering: How to Cool Earth—At a Price”, 10-20, https://sslaccess.elkresources.net/files/OTHER-MISC/Geoengineering_How%20to%20Cool%20Earth-At%20a%20Price.pdf)
Stephen Salter, an emeritus engineering professor at the … ships over just 4 percent of the ocean. And, sequestration
Technology Review, 4/26/2007. “The Case for Burying Charcoal,” published by MIT, http://www.technologyreview.com/news/407754/the-case-for-burying-charcoal/. Several states in this country and a number of … nitrous-oxide emissions from cultivated soil by 40 percent." Endign arms sales solves relations
Zhang, 12 – 23 -10 (Jiakun, Junion in Pol. Sci. – Duke U., Duke East Asia Nexus (An Online Journal covering East Asian Affairs, “Disentanglement: A Case to End U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan”http:www.dukenexus.org/?p=215) The Taiwan Strait is one of the few places in … North Korea and Iran. Abe Visit solves war—Aff impact author
Klare, Three days ago The Aff’s Author, Peace and World Security Studies professor at Hampshire, Three Days Ago, 1-23-13
(Michael, “The Next War,” 1-23-13, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2013/01/23/the_next_war_100500.html, accessed 1-24-13
Can such a crisis be averted? Yes, if the … and horror on the failure of everyone involved. China
US-Sino relations high – North Korea
Schell 3-7 Orville, Arthur Ross Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society in New York. He is a former professor and Dean at the University of California, Berkeley’s Graduate School of Journalism, Can the North Korea Challenge Bring China and the U.S. Together? http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/03/can-the-north-korea-challenge-bring-china-and-the-us-together/273777/
What may end up being most significant about the … and a win-win partnership." Relations resilient, anything else is a speed bump
Lamb 3-21 Gregory M., Christian Science Monitor, Good Reads: US-China relations, 'Lean In,' ballet's whodunit, Ireland's Downton, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2013/0321/Good-Reads-US-China-relations-Lean-In-ballet-s-whodunit-Ireland-s-Downton
Competition between the US and …want to clash with anyone – at least not for the next 15 to 20 years.”
The Ralls decision specifically stifles cooperation with China – perceived as particular scrutiny toward China that deters investment.
Baker Botts LLP, 10-1-12
“President Obama Blocks Chinese-Owned Wind-Farm Development” http://www.bakerbotts.com/file_upload/Update201210IntlTrade-PresidentObamaBlocksChinese-OwnedWind-FarmDevelopment2.htm, accessed 10-29-12, TAP On Friday, September 28, 2012, the President … acquisition much more skeptically, particularly when a Chinese investor is involved. Multiple factors check escalation --- counterbalancing forces, US, economics, moderate leaders
Sari 12 Angguntari, reporter for the Jakarta Post, "Three possible scenarios in South China Sea," 12-31, http://www2.thejakartapost.com/news/2012/12/31/three-possible-scenarios-south-china-sea.html In the status-quo scenario, which is the most …and a peaceful regional solution to the dispute”. Won't escalate
Wing 12 Terry, reporter for VOA News, "Will South China Sea Disputes Lead to War?," 9-4, http://www.voanews.com/content/south-china-sea-war-unlikely/1501780.html But that doesn’t mean a war. Storey said an …into closer strategic alignment with the US,” said Kaplan. No impact to the economy
Robert Jervis 11, Professor in the Department of Political Science and School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, December 2011, “Force in Our Times,” Survival, Vol. 25, No. 4, p. 403-425
Even if war is still seen as evil, the security community could be dissolved if … economic conflict, it will not make war thinkable. No Asia wars -- international organizations and stability.
Desker, ‘8
Barry, Dean of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, At the IISS-JIIA Conference 2-4 June 2008, “Why War is Unlikely in Asia: Facing the Challenge from China”, http://www.iiss.org/conferences/asias-strategic-challenges-in-search-of-a-common-agenda/conference-papers/why-war-in-asia-remains-unlikely-barry-desker/ War in Asia is thinkable but it is unlikely. The Asia-…the American century. The challenge for liberal democracies like the United States will be to embark on a course of self-restraint. Warming
Solvnecy
No one will follow—they can’t solve the legitimacy or capacity deficit
Buzan 10—Professor of International Relations @ London School of Economics Barry Buzan (Senior Fellow @ IDEAS, Honorary professor @ Universities of Copenhagen and Fellow of the British Academy), “The End of Leadership?—Constraints on the World Role of Obama’s America,” IDEAS reports—special reports, 2010 INTRODUCTION
It is appealing to think of the Obama administration as a return to normalcy … society where it is no longer the sole¶ superpower but merely the first among equals. Pg. 4-6
Can’t solve – eliminating every coal plant would only be a POINT 2 degree change
RAPIER 12 Chief Technology Officer at Merica International – a Renewable Energy Company, Master’s in Chemical Engineering from Texas AandM University Robert Rapier, Study: Eliminating Coal-Fired Power is Worth 0.2 Degrees in 100 Years, http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/2012/03/05/study-eliminating-coal-fired-power-is-worth-0-2-degrees-in-100-years/ Who could have dreamed solving climate change would be so easy? …t see how the West can possibly do anything about it. Alt cause – their CFR says a cap and trade system is necessary to modelling
Warming is irreversible – consensus of most qualified scientists
Romm 3-18 Joe, PhD in Physics from MIT, Senior Fellow at American Progress, editor of Climate Progress, former acting assistant secretary of energy for energy efficiency and renewable energy in 1997, “The Dangerous Myth that Climate Change is Reversible,” http://theenergycollective.com/josephromm/199981/dangerous-myth-climate-change-reversible
The CMO (Chief Misinformation Officer) of the climate ignorati, … on misconceptions of climate dynamics than high discount rates or uncertainty about the risks of harmful climate change. Alt causes to coral – inter press lists overfishing, trawling, tourism, disease
1NC CO2 Good
CO2 boosts plant performance and prevents mass starvation—we control uniqueness
Singer, PhD physics – Princeton University and professor of environmental science – UVA, consultant – NASA, GAO, DOE, NASA, Carter, PhD paleontology – University of Cambridge, adjunct research professor – Marine Geophysical Laboratory @ James Cook University, and Idso, PhD Geography – ASU, ‘11
Regarding the first of these requirements, Tilman et al. note that in … universally promoted by atmospheric CO2 enrichment. CO2 is critical to sustaining forest growth
Robinson and Robinson in ‘00
(Arthur and Noah, Chemists @ Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, The American Spectator, “Some Like It Hot: The global warming business could bankrupt our Earth”, April, L/N)
What will temperatures be during the coming … rain forests show similar accelerations. Forest preservation solves extinction
Bouman in ‘96
(O. Thomas, PhD in Forestry @ U. Gottingen and Member of Canada’s Model Forest Program, “Sustainable Forests: Global Challenges and Local Solutions”, p. xv, Google Print)
The most widespread interpretation of … of relative scarcity in a neoclassical sense.
They don’t solve disease – keating says agriculture, globalization and bioterror cause it CO2 isn’t key
Watts, 25-year climate reporter, works with weather technology, weather stations, and weather data processing systems in the private sector, 7/25/’12
(Anthony, http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/25/lindzen-at-sandia-national-labs-climate-models-are-flawed/) ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — Massachusetts … temperatures are always fluctuating by tenths of a degree. Negative feedbacks solve
Singer et al. 11 S Fred, PhD, a distinguished atmospheric physicist and first director of the U.S. Weather Satellite Service, Craig Idso, editor of the online magazine CO2 Science and author of several books and scholarly articles on the effects of carbon dioxide on plant and animal life, Robert M Carter, marine geologist and research professor at James Cook University in Queensland, Australia Climate Change Reconsidered: 2011 Interim Report In the 2009 NIPCC report, Idso and Singer (2009) discussed the …. that ―DMS production in the ocean may act to counter the effects of global warming in the future. Disease
Coral is incredibly resilient. If it survived 300 million years of badness it can survive anything we throw at it.
Ridd ‘7 (Peter, Reader in Physics – James Cook U. Specializing in Marine Physics and Scientific Advisor – Australian Environment Foundation, “The Great Great Barrier Reef Swindle”, 7-19, http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=6134)
In biological circles, it is common to compare …. events of 1998 and 2002, most of the corals of the GBR did not bleach and of those that did, most have fully recovered. No disease can cause human extinction—burnout
Posner 5—judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals, Seventh Circuit, and senior lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School Richard A, Winter, “Catastrophe: the dozen most significant catastrophic risks and what we can do about them,” http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_kmske/is_3_11/ai_n29167514/pg_2?tag=content;col1 Yet the fact that Homo sapiens has managed … losses and resist prevention and cure: the lesson of the AIDS pandemic. And there is always a lust time. Water
No water wars—their ev is hype.
Katz 11—Lecturer of Geography and Environmental Studies @ University of Haifa Dr. David Katz (PhD in Natural Resource Policy and MA in Applied Economics @ University of Michigan), “Hydro-Political Hyperbole: Examining Incentives for Overemphasizing the Risks of Water Wars,” Global Environmental Politics, Volume 11, Number 1, February 2011, pp. 12-35 Evidence and Perception
In sum, despite some instances of violent conflict over water, there is … and help to evaluate such warnings more critically.pg. 17-18 1nc UN will step in to resolve these water disputes—Their ev ignores its moderating effects
Tir and Stinnett 12—Professor of Poli Sci @ University of Colorado Boulder and Professor of Poli Sci @ University of Georgia Dr. Jaroslav Tir and Dr. Douglas M. Stinnett Jaroslav Tir and Dr. Douglas M. Stinnett, “Weathering climate change: Can institutions mitigate international water conflict?,” Journal of Peace Research 49(1) 2012, pg. 211–225 For both the direct and indirect scenarios, climate change and attendant …reduce international conflict (Wolf, Yoffe and Giordano, 2003). Pg. 214-215
UN action preserves global governance
Thakur 11—Professor of international relations @ Australian National University Dr. Ramesh Thakur (Professor in the Institute of Ethics, Governance and Law, Griffith University), “U.N.-centered multilateralism vital,” The Daily Yomiuri, Aug. 1, 2011, pg. http://tinyurl.com/cymnn2g The survival and vitality of international … the centre for harmonizing the ubiquitous national interests to forging the elusive international interest.
It’s failure places human survival at risk
Masciulli 11—Professor of Political Science @ St Thomas University Joseph Masciulli, “The Governance Challenge for Global Political and Technoscientific Leaders in an Era of Globalization and Globalizing Technologies,” Bulletin of Science, Technology and Society February 2011 vol. 31 no. 1 pg. 3-5 What is most to be feared is enhanced global disorder … and tragically, leave global survival and security to their longer term agendas. Pg. 4-5 |
| 03/30/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
CP
2NC/1NR—Conditionality Good Our offense --- - Logical decision making --- dispo requires the judge to vote for the plan if its better than a straight-turned CP even if the status quo is better --- the terminal impact to debate is to create good decision makers who can determine what is or isn’t a cost and evaluate policies.
2. 2AC strategic thinking --- conditionality forces the 2ac to tailor their straight turns to what the CP can’t solve --- this increases analytic education. 3. Structural aff bias justifies --- the persuasive value of the 2AR outweighs the strategic benefit of the block and they get to pick the focus of the debate --- multiple options are key to overwhelm their specificity bias. Our defense --- - Time skew inevitable --- we could read more DAs or T violations and some teams are just faster.
2. 2nr checks --- collapsing our strategy allows the 2AR to frame the debate in response. And --- No argument irresponsibility --- its no different than them choosing not to go for a link turn on politics. And --- No strategy skew --- no solvency deficit or addon against the CP will hurt them against the status quo --- if we revert to the status quo they get back 9 minutes of offense the CP might have captured. And --- Theory interpretations are illegitimate --- they allow the affirmative to arbitrarily allow practices that are slightly better for them, creating a race to the bottom that incentivizes going for theory over substance. And --- Not a voting issue --- worst case you stick us with the CP. And --- One CP doesn’t solve— a. Still links to their offense --- if one conditional advocacy is good, any disad to two or more is arbitrary. b. Not a rational test of opportunity cost --- if there are multiple costs to any policy you can’t just ignore some of them. And --- Dispo doesn’t solve— a. It’s functionally conditional --- the neg will just add planks like feed Africa to force permutations. b. Doesn’t force 2ac economizing --- they don’t have to make tough choices and narrowly focus their offense. Addon
Ash CP – 1nc
The United States federal government should research develop and deploy hydrogen based technologies produced from ash
That solves
RandD Magazine 3/26/13 “Ash from refuse could become hydrogen gas,” Tue, 03/26/2013 - 12:31pm , pg. http://www.rdmag.com/news/2013/03/ash-refuse-could-become-hydrogen-gas Every year, millions of tons of environmentally harmful ash is … reduces the strain on our landfill sites.” *2NC—2NC CPS GOOD 2NC CPs Are Legitimate - Counter-interpretation --- we can only read 2NC CPs if they are a direct response to a 2AC addon --- that’s key to deter aff sandbagging --- they will save their best advantages for addons --- our interpretation is best ---
a. Argument under-development --- addons shift everything backwards one speech --- that forces the 2NR to give a 2NC which undermines depth of analysis. b. Kills CP ground --- the aff can have 2AC that are artificially immune to CPs --- CPs are key to test unpredictable aff advantages and avoid moral high grounds like rape bad advantages. - Counter-interpretation --- we can only read 2NC CPs if they are fixing minor errors in the text --- that’s best ---
a. Cross-x solves --- any confusion about text errors can be resolved by asking us what the CP does. b. Substance tradeoff --- rejecting CPs just because of small text errors allows the aff to avoid in-depth discussions of policy options in favor of grammatical nitpicking. 2. The 2NC is a constructive --- the aff’s arbitrary distinction between a CP and other arguments is not grounded in any systemic theory of debate. 3. Structural aff bias justifies --- the persuasive value of the 2AR outweighs the strategic benefit of the block and they get to pick the focus of the debate --- specificity bias is magnified if they can pick advantages to avoid CPs. 4. Best policy option --- 2NC CPs are key to test the opportunity cost of the plan and the intrinsicness of new 2AC advantages --- the terminal impact to debate is to create good decision makers who can determine what is or isn’t a cost and rationally evaluate policies. Civil Wars – Module
We’ll answer Diamond’s thesis. Democracies are no better because their leaders are not more accountable.
Rosato ‘3 (Sebastian, PhD Candidate Pol. Sci. – U. Chicago, American Political Science Review, “The Flawed Logic of Democratic Peace Theory”, 97:4, November, Proquest) Each variant of the institutional logic rests on the claim … or costly wars and are therefore more accountable than their autocratic counterparts. This being the case, there is good reason to doubt each variant of the institutional logic. Democracy doesn’t solve war --- it’s multilateral institutions and historical patterns
Schwartz and Skinner '01 Thomas and Kiron K (Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, associate professor of history and political science at Carnegie Mellon University); December 22, 2001; “The Myth of Democratic Peace”; JAI Press; ORBIS Here we show that neither the historical record nor the …The wars below are either counter-examples to democratic pacifism or borderline cases. Each is listed with the year it started and those combatants that have some claim to the democratic label. American Revolutionary War, 1775 (Great Britain vs. U.S.) Wars of French Revolution (democratic period), esp. 1793, 1795 (France vs. Great Britain) Quasi War, 1798 (U.S. vs. France) War of 1812 (U.S. vs. Great Britain) Texas War of Independence, 1835 (Texas vs. Mexico) Mexican War, 1846 (U.S. vs. Mexico) Roman Republic vs. France, 1849 American Civil War, 1861 (Northern Union vs. Southern Confederacy) Ecuador-Columbia War, 1863 Franco-Prussian War, 1870 War of the Pacific, 1879 (Chile vs. Peru and Bolivia) Indian Wars, much of nineteenth century (U.S. vs. various Indian nations) Spanish-American War, 1898 Boer War, 1899 (Great Britain vs. Transvaal and Orange Free State) World War I, 1914 (Germany vs. Great Britain, France, Italy, Belgium, and U.S.) Chaco War, 1932 (Chile vs. Argentina) Ecuador-Peru, 1941 Palestine War, 1948 (Israel vs. Lebanon) Dominican Invasion, 1967 (U.S. vs. Dominican Republic) Cyprus Invasion, 1974 (Turkey vs. Cyprus) Ecuador-Peru, 1981 Nagorno-Karabakh, 1989 (Armenia vs. Azerbaijan) Yugoslav Wars, 1991 (Serbia and Bosnian-Serb Republic vs. Croatia and Bosnia; sometimes Croatia vs. Bosnia) Georgia-Ossetia, 1991 (Georgia vs. South Ossetia) Georgia-Abkhazia, 1992 (Georgia vs. Abkhazia and allegedly Russia) Moldova-Dnestr Republic, 1992 (Moldova vs. Dnestr Republic and allegedly Russia) Chechen War of Independence, 1994 (Russia vs. Chechnya) Ecuador-Peru, 1995 NATO-Yugoslavia, 1999 India-Pakistan, 1999 Internal wars are MORE likely in democracies – controlling for all variables – that turns the aff
FEARON and LAITIN 03 Both are Professors, Department of Political Science, Stanford
James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War”. American Political Science Review 97, 1 (Feb 2003): pp.75-90 Democracy and Civil Liberties.
Broad social and political grievances should be lower, on average, in political … despite the fact that we are controlling for recent political instability, which is much more common in anocracies. 30 Democracies spark wars
BALIGA, LUCC, and SJOSTROM 11 1. Professors at Northwestern University, 2. Federal Reserve Board, Rutgers University Professor
Sandeep Baliga, David O. Lucc, Tomas Sjöström, Domestic Political Survival and International Conflict: Is Democracy Good for Peace?, Review of Economic Studies (2011) 78 (2): 458-486 - INTRODUCTION
The idea that democracy …is also consistent with our theoretical model.
A2 peace – other causes Democratic peace is flawed – its about stable borders – democracy is a symptom – this answers all their internal links
GIBLER 07 Professor of Political Science University of Alabama – Roll Tide Roll
Doublas M. Gibler, Volume 51, Issue 3, pages 509–532, September 2007, International Studies Quarterly The Democratic Peace and the Steps to War
The democratic peace literature centers … and peace is spurious. The next step in this argument, then, is to establish the connection between stable borders and the development of democracy. Democracy doesn’t prevent conflict – other variables that are necessary for democracy do
GIBLER 07 Professor of Political Science University of Alabama – Roll Tide Roll
Doublas M. Gibler, Volume 51, Issue 3, pages 509–532, September 2007, International Studies Quarterly The border variables are again consistent with my theoretical …inclusiveness of these models, each with over 100,000 dyadic cases. Variables determine democratic peace – not democracy itself
GARTZKE 00 Associate Professor of Political Science – UC San Diego
Eric Gartzke, Preferences and the Democratic Peace, International Studies Quarterly, 00208833, Jun2000, Vol. 44, Issue 2 Other research on the democratic peace questions the exogeneity of … on the democratic peace is actually attributable indirectly to other variables. Relations high
Relations resilient, anything else is a speed bump
Lamb 3-21 Gregory M., Christian Science Monitor, Good Reads: US-China relations, 'Lean In,' ballet's whodunit, Ireland's Downton, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2013/0321/Good-Reads-US-China-relations-Lean-In-ballet-s-whodunit-Ireland-s-Downton
Competition between the US and China … do not want to clash with anyone – at least not for the next 15 to 20 years.” 2nc- China Alt cause
No solvency --- 1AC Lin evidence says scientific exchanges, joint research ventures, and changing trade policies is key.
Justin Lin, 1/21/2011. World Bank chief economist. “China, the US and clean energy cooperation,” http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/china-the-us-and-clean-energy-cooperation. Second, there are also major long-term global benefits from clean … generations from the damaging effects of climate change. Investment strategies alone fail --- Gross lists numerous other policy priorities that are necessary, and is talking about a broad-scale increase in trade and investment through FTAs, not a single policy to increase wind investment.
Donald Gross, 12/17/2012. CSIS Pacific Forum. “Seizing the opportunity to improve US–China relations,” http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/12/17/seizing-the-opportunity-to-improve-us-china-relations/. Through a new policy approach, the United States … events of Europe in the twentieth century’. CFIUS reviews are a huge obstacle to Chinese investment in U.S. clean energy. The U.S. must change its overall policy framework for investment to solve.
Melanie Hart, 2/11/2013. Policy Analyst for Chinese Energy and Climate Policy at the Center for American Progress. “Increasing Opportunities for Chinese Direct Investment in U.S. Clean Energy,” Center for American Progress, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/china/report/2013/02/11/52576/increasing-opportunities-for-chinese-direct-investment-in-u-s-clean-energy/. One of our most promising opportunities for U.S.-China … issue. In this era of economic difficulty, we should not let those opportunities go by the wayside. Blocking Chinese wind investment creates a chilling effect for ALL Chinese investment in the US economy.
Juliano and McArdle, Environment and Energy Daily, 10-2-12
Nick and John, “Obama’s blocking of wind farm adds to U.S.-China tension” http://www.governorswindenergycoalition.org/?p=3480, accessed 10-29-12, TAP President Obama’s decision to block a Chinese-owned firm’s plan to …economy still struggling to create jobs, that’s the wrong signal to send.” No Escalation 2NC No escalation in the South China Sea --- defensive posturing by Southeast Asia, US security guarantees, economic interdependence and China wants to find a peaceful solution --- that is Sari Even if there are some disputes now --- plan can't resolve them because they are based on territorial, nationalistic and OIL claims rather than natural gas Limited to small exchanges --- Glaser
NBC News 12 "Much at stake for US as tensions rise in troubled China Seas," 8-24, http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/24/13432841-much-at-stake-for-us-as-tensions-rise-in-troubled-china-seas?lite Bonnie Glaser, a senior fellow at the Center for International and Strategic …. I don't think that's on the cards," she said. Tensions won't escalate
Wing 12 Terry, reporter for VOA News, "Will South China Sea Disputes Lead to War?," 9-4, http://www.voanews.com/content/south-china-sea-war-unlikely/1501780.html But that doesn’t mean a war. Storey said an escalation into full-… Southeast Asian countries into closer strategic alignment with the US,” said Kaplan. No conflict between the US and China --- economics and MAD
Nathan and Scobell 12 Andrew J., Professor of Political Science at Columbia University; Andrew, Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation. "How China Sees America." Foreign Affairs. 16 Aug. 2012, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/138009/andrew-j-nathan-and-andrew-scobell/how-china-sees-america?page=show Despite these views, mainstream Chinese strategists … of each other keeps alive the imperative to work together. Glaser agrees
Bennett 12 John, covers national security and foreign policy for U.S. News and World Report, "U.S. Expected To Remain Neutral In South China Sea Disputes," 7-30, http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/dotmil/2012/07/30/us-expected-to-remain-neutral-in-south-china-sea-disputes As it has in several other South China Sea disputes, Glaser told …neighbors into U.S. arms," Glaser says. China just testing --- no actual war
Legaspi 13 Amita, "Asia risk analyst doubts China will go to war over Spratlys," 1-17, http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/290805/news/nation/asia-risk-analyst-doubts-china-will-go-to-war-over-spratlys Amid the reported Chinese intrusions in the disputed … over the Spratlys are Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei. 1NC No China War
China will not risk war—economics and diplomacy
Fravel 12—Associate Professor of Political Science and member of the Security Studies Program at MIT. Taylor is a graduate of Middlebury College and Stanford University, where he received his PhD. He has been a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University, a Predoctoral Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, a Fellow with the Princeton-Harvard China and the World Program and a Visiting Scholar at the American Academy of Arts and Sciences(M. Taylor, “All Quiet in the South China Sea,” March 22nd, 2012, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137346/m-taylor-fravel/all-quiet-in-the-south-china-sea) Little noticed, however, has been China's recent adoption … its foreign policy. That is good news for stability in the region. No military aggression
Goldstein 11—Professor and Director of the China Maritime Studies Institute @ US Naval War College Dr. Lyle J. Goldstein, “Resetting the US–China Security Relationship,” Survival | vol. 53 no. 2 | April–May 2011 | pp. 89–116 Weighed in the aggregate, China’s rise remains a peaceful process, … of reaching a breakthrough in border negotiations.’2 pg. 90 2NC No China War
No war—China has the most to lose
Ba 11—Professor of Political Science and International Relations @ University of Delaware Dr. Alice D. Ba (PhD in Government and Foreign Affairs from University of Virginia) , “Staking Claims and Making Waves in the South China Sea: How Troubled Are the Waters?,” Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic Affairs, Volume 33, Number 3, December 2011, pp. 269-291 Most of all, authors mostly see the prospects for major conflict … China has the most to lose with the militarization of the South China Sea dispute. Pg. 286 No US-China war
Zhang and Zheng 12—Professor of American Studies @ Fudan University and Postgraduate student in international politics @ Fudan University. Dr. Jiadong and Zheng Xin, “The Role of Nontraditional Security in China–US Relations: common ground or contradictory arena?,” Journal of Contemporary China (2012), 21(76), July, pg. 623–636 Third, China and the US need to be aware that NTS and traditional security can be merged and often intertwined with each other when the circumstances are right. There is no distinct line between NTS … NTS field spreading into the traditional security field. Pg. 635 Economic ties prevent conflict
Raine 11—Research Fellow for Chinese Foreign and Security Policy @ International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Sarah Raine, “Beijing's South China Sea Debate” Survival, vol. 53 no. 5 | October–November 2011 pg. 69-88 But despite the powerful limitations imposed by … national interests, and whether this might be at the cost of Southeast Asian states’ international autonomy. Pg. 82 Institutions check escalation
Ba 11—Professor of Political Science and International Relations @ University of Delaware Dr. Alice D. Ba (PhD in Government and Foreign Affairs from University of Virginia) , “Staking Claims and Making Waves in the South China Sea: How Troubled Are the Waters?,” Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic Affairs, Volume 33, Number 3, December 2011, pp. 269-291 Thayer’s conclusion also speaks to the fact that China’s relations with …contradiction and “Achilles heel” (to use Kavi Chongkittavorn’s characterization) in China-Southeast Asian relations.37 pg. 279-280 Mature asymmetry prevents escalation
Ba 11—Professor of Political Science and International Relations @ University of Delaware Dr. Alice D. Ba (PhD in Government and Foreign Affairs from University of Virginia) , “Staking Claims and Making Waves in the South China Sea: How Troubled Are the Waters?,” Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic Affairs, Volume 33, Number 3, December 2011, pp. 269-291 As Thayer highlights, the resultant “souring of …asymmetry”. Pg. 279 1NC No SCS War
Potential economic destruction deters war
Creehan 12—Senior Editor of the SAIS Review of International Affairs Sean Creehan, “Assessing the Risks of Conflict in the South China Sea,” SAIS Review, Volume 32, Number 1, Winter-Spring 2012, pp. 125-128 Regarding Secretary Clinton’s first requirement, the ….that significant changes to the status quo are unlikely. Pg. 126 US has already drawn a clear line in the South China Seas.
Ba 11—Professor of Political Science and International Relations @ University of Delaware Dr. Alice D. Ba (PhD in
Government and Foreign Affairs from University of Virginia) , “Staking Claims and Making Waves in the South China Sea: How Troubled Are the Waters?,” Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic Affairs, Volume 33, Number 3, December 2011, pp. 269-291 Unquestionably, US involvement has upped the … agreement on guidelines for its implementation. Pg. 283 2NC No SCS War
No war—not worth it and China won’t be militarily aggressive
Wang 12 Terry, “Will South China Sea Disputes Lead to War?” 9-4, http://www.voanews.com/content/south-china-sea-war-unlikely/1501780.html
“A minor military clash in the South …carefully crafted ‘peaceful rise’ thesis and push Southeast Asian countries into closer strategic alignment with the US,” said Kaplan. No escalation—EP-3 and Impeccable proves.
Womack 11—Professor of Foreign Affairs @ University of Virginia Dr. Brantly Womack (PhD in Poli Sci from University of Chicago), “The Spratlys: From Dangerous Ground to Apple of Discord,” Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic Affairs, Volume 33, Number 3, December 2011, pp. 370-387 It is difficult to imagine a Spratly scenario in … tit-for-tat responses rather than general escalation. The days of the War of Jenkins’s Ear are long past.35 pg. 381-383 AT: Resource Nationalism
Resource nationalism will not lead to war—history is on our side.
Hughes 11—Professor of Political Science and International Affairs@ George Washington University Llewelyn Hughes, “Resource Nationalism in the Asia-Pacific: Why Does It Matter?,” Asia’s Rising Energy and Resource Nationalism: Implications for the United States, China, and the Asia-Pacific Region, National Bureau of Asian Research, NBR Special Report #31 | September 2011 The biggest concern about resource …NOCs from oil-importing countries. Pg. 9-10 1nc No zero-sum dynamics—no impact to equity oil investments
Hughes 11—Professor of Political Science and International Affairs@ George Washington University Llewelyn Hughes, “Resource Nationalism in the Asia-Pacific: Why Does It Matter?,” Asia’s Rising Energy and Resource Nationalism: Implications for the United States, China, and the Asia-Pacific Region, National Bureau of Asian Research, NBR Special Report #31 | September 2011 Even if we allow that energy policies in the rising … out have thus far been mistaken. Pg. 11 No impact. China’s response is driven by industrial policy—No resource nationalism
Hughes 11—Professor of Political Science and International Affairs@ George Washington University Llewelyn Hughes, “Resource Nationalism in the Asia-Pacific: Why Does It Matter?,” Asia’s Rising Energy and Resource Nationalism: Implications for the United States, China, and the Asia-Pacific Region, National Bureau of Asian Research, NBR Special Report #31 | September 2011 Further, governments that intervene in oil markets … competition but are unlikely to have more serious consequences. Pg. 10 2NC Royal
Economic collapse doesn’t cause war---that’s Jervis---if the current downturn didn’t cause global war then the factors cited in their evidence aren’t sufficient to cause hot wars
Royal cites a few warrants
First -- Diversionary theory --- it’s wrong
Boehmer, 07 – political science professor at the University of Texas (Charles, Politics and Policy, 35:4, “The Effects of Economic Crisis, Domestic Discord, and State Efficacy on the Decision to Initiate Interstate Conflict”)
This article examines the contemporaneous effect of low economic …domestic problems on the relative risks of regime change, interstate conflict, or both events occurring in the same year.3
Next is collapse of trade --- but trade doesn’t solve war
May 5—Professor Emeritus (Research) in the Stanford University School of Engineering and a senior fellow with the Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. Former co-director of Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation. Principal Investigator for the DHS. (Michael, “The U.S.-China Strategic Relationship,” September 2005, http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/2005/Sep/maySep05.asp) However important and beneficial this …myths are believed.
And collapse of trade doesn’t cause war
Bremmer 9—IR prof, Columbia. Faculty member at Stanford’s Hoover Institution. Senior Fellow, World Policy Institute. PhD in pol sci, Stanford. (Ian, “The Political Risks From Washington,” 24 March 2009, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/03/top_five_risks_and_a_red_herri.html) There is one serious risk I think we can …backlash against interconnectedness, trade, or global supply chains.
Third Terrorism --- no scenario
Mueller 8/2—IR prof at Ohio State. PhD in pol sci from UCLA (2 August 2011, John, The Truth about Al Qaeda, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68012/john-mueller/the-truth-about-al-qaeda?page=show)
As a misguided Turkish proverb holds, "If your enemy be an ant, … with 9/11 included. Forth --- Miscalc --- there’s no scenario for miscalculation
Quinlan 9—distinguished frmr British defence strategist and former Permanent Under-Secretary of State. (Michael, Thinking About Nuclear Weapons, 63-9) Even if initial nuclear use did not quickly end the fighting, the supposition … notion that cosmic holocaust might be mistakenly precipitated in this way belongs to science fiction. Empirics prove no war.
Miller 1—Morris Miller is an adjunct economics professor at the University of Ottawa Jan.-Mar, 2001, “Poverty: A Cause of War?” Peace Magazine, http://peacemagazine.org/archive/v17n1p08.htm Economic Crises?
Some scholars have argued that it is … of violence to abort another)." There is no causal relationship between the economy and conflict—the best study proves.
Brandt and Ulfelder 11—*Patrick T. Brandt, Ph.D. in Political Science from Indiana University, is an Assistant Professor of Political Science in the School of Social Science at the University of Texas at Dallas. Jay Ulfelder, Ph.D. in political science from Stanford University, is an American political scientist whose research interests include democratization, civil unrest, and violent conflict. April, 2011, “Economic Growth and Political Instability,” Social Science Research Network These statements anticipating political fallout from the … expected and apparent uptick in social unrest associated with the crisis. |
| 03/30/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
Overview
Conceded turns case argument – CIR creates trade and business ties with China which boost relations – I’m not reading a new card so you should not allow a 1AR response
It’s the most likely scenario for nuclear war and causes nuclear winter
Robock and Toon 10 - Professor of climatology at Rutgers University and Chair of atmospheric and oceanic scienc¬es @ University of Colorado-Boulder Allan Robock (Director of Rutger’s Center for Environmental Prediction) and Owen Brian Toon (Fellow of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics University of Colorado-Boulder, “Local Nuclear War,” Scientific American, January 2010 language modified Why discuss this topic now that the cold war has ended? Because as other nations … to use all its nuclear arsenal quickly before India swamps its military bases with traditional forces. Pg. 74-75 Timeframe – the advantage is solvency dependent – we boost India relations in the short term
Hirsch
Renewable energy policy is not a win – faces massive unified opposition from the GOP and fossil fuel lobbies – requires an enormous amount of political capital that trades off with other issues
A2 hirshc - Hirsh is an indict of the meme of capital – we have warrants
2. Obama’s working behind the scenes – that’s 1nc link – here’s academic support
BECKMANN and KUMAR 11 Professor of Political Science, UC, Irvine Matthew N. Beckmann and Vimal Kumar, How presidents push, when presidents win: A model of positive presidential power in US lawmaking, Journal of Theoretical Politics 2011 23: 3 Fortunately for those inside the West Wing, some researchers paint a … endgame), we theorize that typical roll-call-based tests of presidents’ legislative influence have missed most of it. 3. Prefer our theory cards – from professors – not a Daily Beast Blogger Independently – Delaying the vote risks killing it. Plan doesn’t even have to be unpopular
ABC NEWS 3 – 27 – 13 http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/reasons-immigration-reform-timeline-matters/story?id=18822563#.UVO80By0fzw A group of Democrats and Republicans working on an immigration … recess because their guys are going to be unwilling to take a tough vote after that," Fitz said. 4. Hirsh admits the agenda sometimes works that way
HIRSH 12 – 14 – 12 Michael Hirsh, Obama Gets a Solution to His Susan Rice Problem, http://www.nationaljournal.com/whitehouse/obama-gets-a-solution-to-his-susan-rice-problem-20121213 It was a classic Washington exit: stealthy and swift, with few fingerprints. …nomination was simply going to cost him too much political capital, especially when it came to a long-term budget deal.
A2 ww -generic - Winners Lose and capital is finite—can’t replenish
Beckmann and Kumar 11—Professor of Political Science, UC, Irvine Matthew N. Beckmann and Vimal Kumar, How presidents push, when presidents win: A model of positive presidential power in US lawmaking, Journal of Theoretical Politics 2011 23: 3
As with all lobbyists, presidents looking to push legislation … margins and show how presidents may systematically influence them. 2. Health care and climate prove winners don’t win
Lashof 10—director of the National Resource Defense Council's climate center, Ph.D. from the Energy and Resources Group at UC-Berkeley (Dan, “Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda: Lessons from Senate Climate Fail.” NRDC Switchboard Blog, http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/dlashof/coulda_shoulda_woulda_lessons.html) Lesson 2: Political capital is not necessarily a renewable …time to help push climate legislation across the finish line. 3. Plan isn’t a win—adding issues makes it more likely winners will lose.
Pastor 91—Professor of political science at Emory University and director of the Latin American and Caribbean Program at Emory’s Carter Center Robert A., “Congress and U.S. Foreign Policy: Comparative Advantage or Disadvantage,” The Washington Quarterly, Autumn The third dysfunction in interbranch relations is the … he looked stronger as a result.
Cyber
A2 Cyber Thumps
Cyber doesn’t thump CIR and it’s not controversial
Romm, 3/4/13 “Napolitano: Immigration priority tops cyber”. http://www.politico.com/story/2013/03/napolitano-immigration-priority-tops-cyber-88396.html
Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano reasserted … Congress now whose basic knowledge is greater" than previous sessions. Cyber doesn’t thump – below immigration
Chabrow, Bank Info Security, 3-12-13 (Eric, “White House's Fixation on Cybersecurity,” 3-12-13, http://www.bankinfosecurity.com/blogs/white-houses-fixation-on-cybersecurity-p-1438/op-1 Talking Cybersecurity on the Hill
While cybersecurity might not get the same …president makes three trips down Pennsylvania Avenue this week to meet with Congress. Obama not push
It’s a top priority – he’s using all his clout – it’s a No 1 priorty - above
Obama capital starting to work with Repbublicans
WP 3 – 23 – 13 http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/white-houses-outreach-is-yielding-modest-benefits-lawmakers-say/2013/03/23/676dad42-924c-11e2-bdea-e32ad90da239_story.html Two weeks after launching a high-profile charm offensive …who has broken ranks with his party on occasion. “I sort of see the CR as a confidence builder.” Obama’s working behind the scenes
Fox News Latino, 3-28-2013.
In an effort to keep Republicans at the … businesses to tougher standards on verifying their workers are in the country legally. U
1nr U Wall It will pass soon – political capital is a framing issue – Obama’s focus will smooth over obstacles – shifts in the GOP and public opinion generate momentum – that’s CT Post
And, strong bipart support is overcoming opposition – that’s Imassera. Capital will win votes for immigration.
THE HILL 3 – 15 -1 3 Obama support group off to sluggish start, http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/288305-obama-support-group-off-to-sluggish-start Obama sees the group as having the potential to … president. It wasn't necessarily about him but what he could do." AND – more warrants A. House and Senate obstacles falling – avoiding unforeseen issues key
PBS NEWS 3 – 21 – 13 http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2013/03/progress-on-immigration-reform-leaves-leading-advocate-elated-wary.html Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill., center at the podium, has long …
Gutierrez says it's what keeps him from sleeping well. B. despite skepticism and disagreements
IBT 3 – 22 – 13 International Business Tribune http://www.ibtimes.com/immigration-reform-bill-suddenly-close-what-made-republicans-change-their-minds-1145763 When President Barack Obama … bill is taking shape. C. Republicans are on board
Kimball, 3-30-2013.
(“Demographics Force US Immigration Reform,” http://www.dw.de/demographics-force-us-immigration-reform/a-16699894)
Once an issue that polarized the US, … an expert on immigration with the Brookings Institute, told DW. D. Obstacles resolvable
AP 3 – 27 – 13 http://www.startribune.com/politics/200291201.html President Barack Obama pressed for swift … two-week recess the week of April 8. PTC
Was on the sidelines of fiscal cliff talks and only discussed as package – wind action alone triggers the link
Juliano 12/3/2012 Nick Juliano, EandE reporter, Wind credit backers floating on the tide of fiscal talks, hoping not to sink, EandE Daily, http://www.eenews.net/EEDaily/2012/12/03/archive/1?terms=ptc Just as the passengers on the Titanic could do nothing to avoid … it's going to go down with it." Republicans didn’t object ONLY because it was part of the larger package – longer-term wind credits would trigger the link
Juliano 12/14/2012 Nick, EandE reporter PTC phaseout proposal shakes up tax incentive debate, EandE Daily, http://www.eenews.net/EEDaily/2012/12/14/archive/2?terms=ptc The fate of an immediate PTC extension is … in tax reform debate.
Wind lobby
Link xt
Trades off Here’s how you should evaluate the link
Their aff card is our example – their on link turn admits the aff would infuriate the fossil fuel lobby and COST billions
Colman, 12-12-12 Zack, “Sen. Coons predicts GOP support for bill to boost renewable-energy investment” http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/272519-sen-coons-hopeful-renewable-financing-bill-will-pass-next-congress Sensitive to Republican calls to reduce the deficit, Coons suggested … said in the letter. Anti Fossil Fuel changes are dead on arrival
MOGULESCU 2 – 6 – 13 Entertainment attorney, writer and political activist Miles Mogulescu, Can We Solve the Climate Crisis If We Don't Solve the Democracy Crisis?, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/miles-mogulescu/can-we-solve-the-climate-_b_2631033.html
ExxonMobil "has invested mainly in a blocking strategy, focusing its PAC donations on Republicans who can try to assure that no damaging laws go through," writes Coll.
So as long as Republicans -- and corporate-… the energy industry. To say it again, in order to solve the climate crisis, we need to solve the democracy crisis. Obama pushing immigration – ignoring energy key
HARDER 2 – 6 – 13 National Journal Staff Amy Harder, In Washington, Energy and Climate Issues Get Shoved in the Closet, http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/power-play/in-washington-energy-and-climate-issues-get-shoved-in-the-closet-20130206 At a news conference where TV cameras in the back were nearly stacked … political blow to Republicans.” A2 MLPs = Bipart You should read their link turns with a HIGH degree of skepticism – couple of issues – A. Most of them are from RENEWABLE ENERGY advocates who say it would be bipartisan. Like COONS who is quoted in their evidence and is their solvency advocate in congress. B. The warrant is that it’ll be popular since the fossil fuel industry already gets them. That’s just stupid. That’s like saying the CORN industry wouldn’t get pissed just because you gave their subsidy DIRECTLY to their competition. Their link turns are useless—hurting traditional fossil fuels guarantees the link to politics—regional, party dynamics. Even if some are happy with the plan, the majority will be furious across the spectrum of politics
Macneil 12—University of Sydney Robert Macneil, Alternative climate policy pathways in the US, Climate Policy, Volume No. 10 Sep 2012 3. US energy production, consumption, and legislation
When assessing the prospects of any type of comprehensive … Pennsylvania, Utah, Texas, and Arkansas8), and another 15 responsible for the country's coal supply (see Table 1), attempts to regulate and reform US … Republican Party, effectively constituting an affront to its entire contemporary political–economic philosophy. |
| 03/31/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 7 | Opponent: Mary Washington MM | Judge:
Will pass – capital key – issues will be worked out
CT POST 3 – 28 – 13 Connecticut Post http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Immigration-reform-gaining-support-in-Congress-4393187.php A Republican Party in desperate search for relevance to Latino voters. An expanded Democratic
AND
experiences along the way," said Frank Sharry, America's Voice executive director. Offshore drilling causes backlash
Lacey 12 Stephen Lacey, “60 Members of congress and nearly 40,000 American citizens urge Obama to Halt Arctic Offshore Drilling,” February 8, 2012, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/02/08/421360/congress-citizens-obama-halt-arctic-offshore-drilling/?mobile=nc As the Obama Administration moves to open up Arctic waters for exploratory offshore oil and
AND
North Sea and has the worst spill record in the UK since 2000.
Key to relations and economic growth in China and India.
Los Angeles Times, 11/9/2012 (Other countries eagerly await U.S. immigration reform, p. http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/11/us-immigration-reform-eagerly-awaited-by-source-countries.html) "Comprehensive immigration reform will see expansion of skilled labor visas," predicted B.
AND
see the immigration opportunity as a bigger plus than not," he said. Nuclear war
Schaffer, Spring 2002 (Teresita – Director of the South Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Security, Washington Quarterly, p. Lexis) Washington's increased interest in India since the late 1990s reflects India's economic expansion and position
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out of poverty depends critically on good relations with the United States. |
| 03/31/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 7 | Opponent: Mary Washington MM | Judge:
Obama commitment to climate is boosting EPA authority
Strassel 1/24/13 KIMBERLY A. STRASSEL, “The Real Obama Climate Deal,” Wall Street Journal, January 24, 2013, 8:20 p.m. ET, pg. http://tinyurl.com/ag7rmn2 President Obama set off a guessing game this week as to what he intended with
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approach should instead prepare for an agency with a new and turbocharged mission. EPA staffers are sensitive to presidential messaging
Andreen 07– Professor of Law @ University of Alabama (Roll Tide) William L. Andreen, “Motivating Enforcement: Institutional Culture and the Clean Water Act,” 24 Pace Envtl. L. Rev. 67 (2007) pg: http://digitalcommons.pace.edu/pelr/vol24/iss1/4 In a recent article, Professor Joel Mintz perceptively observed that one generally unrecognized characteristic
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brass to intentionally or even unintentionally slow down EPA enforcement. Pg. 86 Gas drilling contradicts the current message
Begos 12 Kevin Begos, “President Barack Obama faces historic natural gas drilling choice,” Associated Press, Posted:11/17/2012 10:52:34 PM MST PITTSBURGH -- Energy companies, environmental groups, and even Hollywood stars are watching to
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be seen too cozy with the oil and gas folks," Ebinger said. EPA’ climate adaptation strategies protect water supplies
Goad 2/8/13 Ben Goad, “EPA moves forward with climate change protection plan, asks for comments,” The Hill, 02/08/13 10:55 AM ET, pg. http://tinyurl.com/aaz8ual It is essential that EPA adapt to anticipate and plan for future changes in climate
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plans include the climate change adaptation plans, which can be viewed here. The impact is water wars
Hodges 12 Dave Hodges, “The Coming Water Wars,” The Common Sense Show.com, December 11, 2012, pg. http://www.thecommonsenseshow.com/2012/12/11/the-coming-water-wars/ Very soon, America will be forced into water wars in order to secure the
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Obtaining water for many Americans will soon be a life and death struggle. Nuclear escalation
Hellman 12 – Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering @ Stanford University Dr. Martin Hellman, War Games and Nuclear Risk,” Defusing the Nuclear Threat, November 25, 2012, pg. http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2012/11/25/war-games-and-nuclear-risk/ A 2008 RAND Project Air Force report states:¶ In 2004, Director of Air
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book ably demonstrates, nuclear proliferation and terrorism have added dangerous new dimensions. |
| 03/31/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 7 | Opponent: Mary Washington MM | Judge:
Drilling will destroy numerous biological hotspots
Gravitz 9—Oceans Advocate for Environment America Michael Gravitz, Statement at the Department of Interior Hearing On Offshore Ocean Energy Development in Atlantic City, New Jersey, April 6, 2009, pg. http://tinyurl.com/cxkzanz 3. When deciding whether to approve seismic testing or exploration and production off the
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off New Jersey support a large and economically important clam and scallop industry. Human survival is at risk
Nautiyal and Nidamanuri 10—Centre for Ecological Economics and Natural Resources @ Institute for Social and Economic Change and Department of Earth and Space Sciences @ Indian Institute of Space Science and Technology SUNIL NAUTIYAL1 and RAMA RAO NIDAMANURI “Conserving Biodiversity in Protected Area of Biodiversity Hotspot in India: A Case Study,” International Journal of Ecology and Environmental Sciences 36 (2-3): 195-200, 2010 The hotspots are the world’s most biologically rich areas hence recognized as important ecosystems not
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sustainable ecosystem management in such areas is therefore supported by this¶ study. |
| 03/31/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 7 | Opponent: Mary Washington MM | Judge:
Arctic cooperation is high but drilling causes US militarization
Backus tech staff @ Sandia National Lab 12 - Principal member of technical staff at Sandia National Laboratories and uses behavioral and physical simulation methods to access security risks associated with climate change George Backus (Director of environmental and energy research at Cambridge Econometrics), “Arctic 2030: What are the consequences of climate change? The US response,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists July/August 2012 vol. 68 no. 4 9-16 Because no entity, other than perhaps the Russian government, has the military bases
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, unless national security forces have the ability to readily manage the situation. Capabilities will include ballistic missile defense and increase the risk of conflict escalation
Al-Achkar Researcher at Harvard 12 - Data Collection and Analysis Coordinator @ Harvard University Ziad Al-Achkar (Co-Founder of Internationalist at Hawk) , “The Implications of a melting Arctic: Militarization, Security Concerns, Power and Policy,” The Internationalist at Hawk, August 7, 2012 at 8:26 pm, pg. http://www.theinternationalistathawk.com/the-implications-of-a-melting-arctic-militarization-security-concerns-power-and-policy/ In 2009, The United States Navy released a roadmap for the Artic in which
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the context of regional security and increased interaction in the Arctic.”. That risks war
Blunden Professor of IR 09 – Professor of International Affairs @ University of Westminster Margaret Blunden, “The New Problem of Arctic Stability,” Survival | vol. 51 no. 5 | Oct–Nov 2009 | pp. 121–142 The Arctic region remains stable for the moment but there is a risk that it
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caused by the Georgia crisis in 2008 offers a new opportunity for progress. |
| 03/31/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 7 | Opponent: Mary Washington MM | Judge:
The United States Federal government should ask Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to immediately pay a goodwill visit to China. Abe Visit solves war—Aff impact author
Klare, Three days ago The Aff’s Author, Peace and World Security Studies professor at Hampshire, Three Days Ago, 1-23-13
(Michael, “The Next War,” 1-23-13, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2013/01/23/the_next_war_100500.html, accessed 1-24-13
Can such a crisis be averted? Yes, if the leaders of China,
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planet will look with sadness and horror on the failure of everyone involved. |
| 03/31/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 7 | Opponent: Mary Washington MM | Judge:
The United States federal government should reduce relevant restrictions on natural gas production on onshore federal lands in the United States. The counterplan solves every production based advantage- that provides a shit ton of gas GREEN
(1083.27 billion barrels of oil and 1730.6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas)
Hutzler 13—Mary J. Hutzler is a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Energy Research (IER). She was a top energy analyst for the U.S. Government, having spent more than 25 years at the Energy Information Administration (EIA), where she specialized in data collection, analysis, and forecasting. In 2001, Hutzler was named by President Bush to lead the EIA as Acting Administrator. Hutzler received a 2004 Presidential Rank Award. Hutzler received her B.A. in mathematics from Adelphi University, her M.A. in applied mathematics from the University of Maryland, and completed her course work and exams for a D.Sc. in operations research at George Washington University February 8, 2013, “U.S. Energy Innovation (Part III: Federal Land Potential),” http://www.masterresource.org/2013/02/u-s-energy-iii-federal-lands/ Potential Openings
Areas that the federal government could open to oil and gas development include:¶ ·
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, affordability and abundance are critical to the future work of our nation. |
| 03/31/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 7 | Opponent: Mary Washington MM | Judge:
Alt cause- worker shortage not enough workers for current rigs
Sixel, 12 -- Fuel Fix writer L.M., "Drilling company looks high and low for workers," Fuel Fix, 12-10-12, fuelfix.com/blog/2012/12/10/drilling-company-looks-high-and-low-for-workers/, accessed 2-6-12 Drilling company looks high and low for workers
How hot is offshore drilling? So hot that it’s hard to find enough roustabouts
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up to 28 days straight on a drilling rig half a world away. Shale sustainable --- peer reviewed, thorough, comprehensive and contains control variables
UT 2-28 "New, Rigorous Assessment of Shale Gas Reserves Forecasts Reliable Supply from Barnett Shale Through 2030," 2-28, http://www.utexas.edu/news/2013/02/28/new-rigorous-assessment-of-shale-gas-reserves-forecasts-reliable-supply-from-barnett-shale-through-2030/ AUSTIN, Texas — A new study, believed to be the most thorough assessment
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is potentially analogous to offshore oil in terms of impact,” Tinker says. Low prices kill offshore investment
Schaefer editor of the Oil and Gas Investments 12 Keith, editor and publisher of the Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin, "Investing in Offshore Drilling and Deepwater Exploration," 3-14, http://oilandgas-investments.com/2012/investing/offshore-drilling-exploration-investing/ Offshore drilling is the most complex and expensive way of accessing oil and gas reserves
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importance: the business outlook, the debt leverage and the contract coverage. No investment in natural gas only leases
MarEx 11 (Maritime Executive , “Gas-Only Drilling in Offshore Moratorium Areas Suggested”, 1/19, http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/2005-10-20gas-only-drilling-in-offshore-moratori)
Oil and gas industry groups are criticizing a provision in House offshore drilling legislation that
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, only to be forced to abandon the resource, stranding substantial investments." Decades until production
News Observer 12 "Opening Atlantic Ocean to offshore drilling likely," 10-2, http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/10/02/2384560/opening-atlantic-ocean-to-offshore.html#storylink=cpy But even if the Atlantic Ocean is opened to energy companies, oil and gas
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of developing those offshore resources versus the cost of developing the known resources.” |
| 03/31/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 7 | Opponent: Mary Washington MM | Judge:
Exports risk greater conflict in the SCS --- they are concerned with protecting supply lines
Clement editor at Dezan Shira Law Firm 12—Nicholas Clement, editor at Dezan Shira Law Firm (China) May 25, 2012, “China and India Vie for Energy Security,” http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2012/05/25/china-and-india-vie-for-energy-security-11177.html Energy security is of utmost strategic importance to China and India if they hope to
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into a national security issue, which has both political and military implications. No exports --- too expensive, spread of shale boom and local opposition
NYT 13 Clifford, reporter for the NYT, "Exports of American Natural Gas May Fall Short of High Hopes," 1-5, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/05/business/energy-environment/exports-of-us-gas-may-fall-short-of-high-hopes.html?pagewanted=alland_r=0 Countries around the world are importing drilling expertise and equipment in hopes of cracking open
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never built because of local opposition or lack of government permits and financing. Natural gas not the lynchpin of energy security
Paik, senior research fellow at OIES, 13 Keun-Wook, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) and associate fellow, Energy, Environment and Resource Program at Chatham House, "Sino-Russian gas cooperation: the reality and implications," 1-19, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/01/19/sino-russian-gas-cooperation-the-reality-and-implications/ Further complicating the Altai-to-west-China pipeline development is that Beijing’s
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expensive without reform of the distorted electricity, gas and coal pricing system. Downs evidence is about Chinese domestic shale gas --- not exports from the US Multiple factors check escalation
Jakarta Post 12 reporter for the Jakarta Post, "Three possible scenarios in South China Sea," 12-31, http://www2.thejakartapost.com/news/2012/12/31/three-possible-scenarios-south-china-sea.html In the status-quo scenario, which is the most likely scenario for the
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committed to “common development and a peaceful regional solution to the dispute”. Resource nationalism will not lead to war – History is on our side
Hughes Professor of Political Science 11 - Professor of Political Science and International Affairs@ George Washington University Llewelyn Hughes, “Resource Nationalism in the Asia-Pacific: Why Does It Matter?,” Asia’s Rising Energy and Resource Nationalism: Implications for the United States, China, and the Asia-Pacific Region, National Bureau of Asian Research, NBR Special Report #31 | September 2011 The biggest concern about resource nationalism is that energy scarcity could lead governments to use
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from oil-importing countries. Pg. 9-10 1nc ¶ |
| 03/31/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 7 | Opponent: Mary Washington MM | Judge:
No risk of U.S.-Russian war – Russia knows the U.S. is infinitely more powerful and that it couldn’t be a threat.
Bandow, 8 (Doug, former senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former columnist with Copley News Service, 3/“Turning China into the Next Big Enemy.” http://www.antiwar.com/bandow/?articleid=12472) In fact, America remains a military colossus. The Bush administration has proposed spending
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former KGB agents aren't going to be able to put him back together. Russia are nationalists, not suicidal. Won't escalate border conflicts.
Bandow, ‘10 (Doug, Senior Fellow – Cato, Huffington Post, “China: The Next “Necessary” Enemy?” 1-3, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/doug-bandow/china-the-next-necessary_b_443349.html)
What else is there? Russia is the enemy du jour for some, but
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Russian is not suicidal, and initiating war against America would be suicidal. De-escalation and global deterrence---best empirical cases prove no conflict despite heightened tensions, instability, and regional threats
Terrill 9, member of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) since October 2001; General Douglas MacArthur Professor of National Security Affairs; Middle East Nonprolif analyst for the International Assessments Division of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Visiting Professor at the U.S. Air War College; former faculty member at Old Dominion University; retired U.S. Army Reserve lieutenant colonel and Foreign Area Officer (Middle East); published in numerous academic journals; participated in the Middle Eastern Arms Control and Regional Security (ACRS) Track 2 talks, which are part of the Middle East Peace Process; served as a member of the military and security working group of the Baker/Hamilton Iraq Study; holds a B.A. from California State Polytechnic University; M.A. from the University of California, Riverside, both in Political Science; holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from Claremont Graduate Universit—(W. Andrew Terrill, Escalation and intrawar deterrence During limited wars in the middle east,” September 2009, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub941.pdf) The number of declared nuclear powers has expanded significantly in the last 20 years to
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the nature of the conflict in which these states may find themselves embroiled. A2 hezbollah
Hamas and Hezbollah are avoiding any pretext for conflict and Israel doesn't want to fight.
Leverett and Leverett, 2-25-2010
Flynt, Senior Research Fellow – New American Foundation, and Hillary Mann, CEO – Strategic Energy and Global Analysis, “IS ANOTHER ISRAEL-IRAN “PROXY WAR” LOOMING?” 2010, http://www.raceforiran.com/is-another-israel-iran-%E2%80%9Cproxy-war%E2%80%9D-looming
But, contra General Jones, after spending much of last week in Lebanon and
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or do anything else that would give Israel a pretext for military action. Hezbollah attack doesn’t escalate
Ferguson 6 Niall (Professor of History at Harvard University) July 23 2006 “This May not be a World War, But It Still Needs a Sense of Urgency”, Telegraph,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/o pinion/2006/07/23/do2302.xml Such language can - for now, at least - safely be dismissed as hyperbole
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on high alert. It is hard to imagine anything like that today. No global escalation
Dyer, 02 – Ph.D. in Military and Middle Eastern History from the University of London and former professor at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst and Oxford University (Gwynne, Queen’s Quarterly, “The coming war”, December, questia) All of this indicates an extremely dangerous situation, with many variables that are impossible
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. But the good news is: we are out of the business. No risk of Middle East war
Maloney and Takeyh, 07 - *senior fellow for Middle East Policy at the Saban Center for Middle East Studies at the Brookings Institution AND senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (Susan and Ray, International Herald Tribune, 6/28, “Why the Iraq War Won't Engulf the Mideast”,
http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2007/0628iraq_maloney.aspx) Yet, the Saudis, Iranians, Jordanians, Syrians, and others are very
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its civil strife and prevent local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East. |
| 03/31/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 7 | Opponent: Mary Washington MM | Judge: We have a ton of oil and gas—the issue is politics, not supply. Claims of ‘peak’ energy are empirically denied scare tactics
Hutzler 13—Mary J. Hutzler is a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Energy Research (IER). She was a top energy analyst for the U.S. Government, having spent more than 25 years at the Energy Information Administration (EIA), where she specialized in data collection, analysis, and forecasting. In 2001, Hutzler was named by President Bush to lead the EIA as Acting Administrator. Hutzler received a 2004 Presidential Rank Award. Hutzler received her B.A. in mathematics from Adelphi University, her M.A. in applied mathematics from the University of Maryland, and completed her course work and exams for a D.Sc. in operations research at George Washington University February 6, 2013, “U.S. Energy Innovation (Part I: Expanding “Depletable” Resources),” http://www.masterresource.org/2013/02/us-energy-i-expanding-resources/ The United States has vast resources of oil, natural gas, and coal.
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Expanded energy production resulting in lower prices is thus a benefit to society. Amount of oil/gas in fed lands vastly outweighs the amount in the OCS
Pyle, 1ac author, 12—President of the Institute for Energy Research Thomas, “Energy Department sneaks offshore moratorium past public; Jobs and oil-supply potential are shut down,” 7-10-12, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jul/9/energy-department-sneaks-offshore-moratorium-past-/ But since taking office, Mr. Obama and Mr. Salazar have worked to
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before they can begin creating the jobs that will unlock their offshore resources. Griles says federal lands, specifically ANWR is the “largest untapped source” of oil and gas. Plus he specifies that the OCS would provide 22 billion barrels of oil and 61 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The counterplan accesses far more than that
Griles 3—Deputy Secretary of the Department of the Interior Steven, “ENERGY PRODUCTION ON FEDERAL LANDS,” Hearing before the Energy and Natural Resources Committee of the US Senate, 2-27-03, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-108shrg86709/html/CHRG-108shrg86709.htm Mr. Griles. America's public lands have an abundant opportunity for exploration and development
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from and buy, so they can have certainty about where to go. Shale gas is sustainable --- total production is nearly three times what it has been to date in just one field, shale has just as much if not more gas than offshore drilling, and price sensitivity isn't a major factor in drilling --- that's UT Prioritize our study --- it is the most thorough assessment, includes many input parameters, uses a bottom up approach rather than flawed top down assessments, controls for price changes, volume, economic limits, tech changes, incentives and other factors and was profesionally peer reviewed. Their evidence is all from one person's analysis rather than independent review panels. Your authors agree
Gold 2-27 Russel, "Gas Boom Projected to Grow for Decades," 2-27, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323293704578330700203397128.html Art Berman, a petroleum geologist and consultant who has been a leading critic of
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will be able to supply future domestic markets and provide exports as well." We'll go through their warrants here ---
Yes it declines rapidly after the first year --- but lasts significantly longer
Maize 12 Kennedy, executive editor of MANAGING POWER, "Is Shale Gas Shallow or the Real Deal?," Power, Dec2012, Vol. 156, Issue 12, EBSCO Bullish on Gas
But Perm State geologist Terry Engelder, the major domo of Marcellus Shale (see
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year period, versus a 25-year lifespan for conventional gas wells. Our study is the goldilocks of predictions --- it is not the widely optimistic forecasts they assume, but notes that the pessimistic collapse scenarios of the aff are not a concern --- we will have plenty to solve all the aff's advantages Industry won't collapse --- industries will adapt to lower prices
Liou 12 Joann, editorial coordinator for Drilling Contractor, Positive rig demand steers 2013 outlook," 11-2, http://www.drillingcontractor.org/positive-rig-demand-steers-2013-outlook-19247 Mr LaMotte believes more consolidation is needed in the onshore US services market, moving from a phase that addressed a capacity shortage in services through the construction of rigs.
“We’ve been through the period of ‘shock and awe,’ during which
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delivery, on efficiency and on developing technologies that improve the recovery factors.” Berman’s wrong---flawed data, ignores new highly productive plays
Hurdle 12 – Jon Hurdle, December 5th, 2012, "Are US Shale Gas Resources Overstated? Part 2" energy.aol.com/2012/12/05/are-us-shale-gas-resources-overstated-part-2/ Enthusiasm over the US natural gas production renaissance has been steadily building over the past
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conclusions run counter to the established science on the abundance of natural gas." Their ev says the plan results in 80tcf of natural gas
Medlock, 8 Medlock is a fellow in Energy Studies at Rice University's James A Baker III Institute for Public Policy and an adjunct assistant professor in the Economics Department at Rice, “Open outer continental shelf”, http://www.chron.com/opinion/outlook/article/Open-outer-continental-shelf-1597898.php
A confluence of factors is responsible for the recent price run-up at the
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the United States and lessen the influence of any future gas producers' cartel. The US uses 24tcf per year – means the plan is only good for 3 years
Energy Information Administration, 8-29-2012, “Frequently Asked Questions,” http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=58andt=8
EIA estimates that there
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to last about 92 years. Even a single onshore shale field is six times bigger than all OCS resources
Inman 12 Mason, National Geographic News, Feb 29, "Estimates Clash for How Much Natural Gas in the United States", news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/03/120301-natural-gas-reserves-united-states/
Engelder is often given credit for spurring the shale gas rush in the Marcellus with
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tcf, a number in the same ballpark as the EIA's 2011 estimate. Their solvency evidence prove OCS restrictions only make a difference of 1.5tcf per year
Baker Institute, ‘8 (Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University, Baker Institute Policy Report, January 2008, “Natural Gas in North America: Markets and Security,” http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/30064519/study-lift-u-s-drilling-restrictions-avoid-international-lng-cartel)//CC
As might be expected, the lower requirements for LNG under this scenario stem from
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0.10 tcf by 2015 and 0.93 tcf by 2025. Their evidence conclusively says that the consensus of experts agree on-shore shale is sustainable enough for exports now
Ebinger, Senior fellow and Director of the Energy Security Initiative at Brookings, ‘12
(Charles, “Liquid Markets: Assessing the Case for US Exports of Liquefied Natural Gas,” 5-2-12, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2012/5/02%20lng%20exports/20120502_lng_edu/~/media/events/2012/5/02%20lng%20exports/20120502_lng_exports, accessed 10-22-12) PM
For an increase in U.S. exports of LNG to be considered feasible
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concern, owing to the continued rapid improvement in technologies and production processes. EVEN IF they win that shale is unsustainable --- vote neg. Proves that industries and investors will flip out and stop the transition when the dream is stopped |
| 03/31/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 7 | Opponent: Mary Washington MM | Judge: Plan doesn't result in additional exports --- global shale boom, expensive construction, exploratory time, high opposition --- thats Krauss None of their 1ac evidence speaks to the technical and financial difficulties of developing and exporting LNG --- even if it is approved by Congress that doesn't mean that companies will find it economical to do so Drilling can't solve prices in time to make exports viable
EIA 7 "Impacts of Increased Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Lower 48 Federal Outer Continental Shelf," http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/ongr.html The projections in the OCS access case indicate that access to the Pacific, Atlantic
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resource would not be economically attractive to develop at the reference case prices. No exports --- resource nationalism outweighs.
Reuters, 6/8/2012. “U.S. likely to cap gas exports – analysts,” http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/08/usa-lng-exports-idUSL5E8H678C20120608. Industrial lobbying in the United States is likely to put a cap on potentially huge
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many opponents to exports concerned about the impact on domestic natural gas prices." cooperation now – experts agree no escalation
Håkansson 2/28/2013 Christina, The Lund Association of Foreign Affairs (UPF Lund)The South China Sea’s “Cold War” http://globalbalita.com/2013/02/28/the-south-china-seas-cold-war/ Unlike NATO for developed countries, ASEAN countries do not have any military cooperation,
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South China Sea so that the development of the region can continue unabated.
no war – all talk. US security guarantees, Chinese desire to rise peacefully
Vu Duc 3/08/2013 Khanh Vu Duc (Khanh Vu Duc is a Vietnamese-Canadian lawyer who researches on Vietnamese politics, international relations and international law. Who's Bluffing Whom in the South China Sea? Asia Sentenial http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_contentandtask=viewandid=5237andItemid=171 Who's Bluffing Whom in the South China Sea? ¶ Yet, it may be
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seek a peaceful, mutually agreed upon resolution, rather than brute force. Economic collapse doesn’t cause war---that’s Jervis---if the current downturn didn’t cause global war then the factors cited in their evidence aren’t sufficient to cause hot wars
Royal cites a few warrants
First -- Diversionary theory --- it’s wrong
Boehmer, 07 – political science professor at the University of Texas (Charles, Politics and Policy, 35:4, “The Effects of Economic Crisis, Domestic Discord, and State Efficacy on the Decision to Initiate Interstate Conflict”)
This article examines the contemporaneous effect of low economic growth and domestic instability on the
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, interstate conflict, or both events occurring in the same year.3 |
| 03/31/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 7 | Opponent: Mary Washington MM | Judge: Israel has already developed its gas fields- no chance they would stop now
Aljazeera 3/31/13 (¶ Gas from Israeli Tamar field starts flowing¶ Production could save Israel billions of dollars in annual costs and eventually turn country into an energy exporter.¶ http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/03/2013331113117512770.html¶ ) The field was discovered in 2009, and a larger field was found in
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Electric Corp. and $4bn worth to units of conglomerate Israel Corp. Hezbollah-Israel War
Hezbollah politically can’t start another war with Israel -- Iranian and domestic interests.
Saab and Blanford, ‘11
Bilal Y., Visiting Fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, a Ph.D. Candidate at the University of Maryland’s Department of Government and Politics, where he focuses on regional security and arms control in the Middle East, contracted consultant for Centra Technology Inc and Oxford Analytica and a monthly contributor to several IHS/Jane’s publications, Nicholas, Beirut correspondent for The Christian Science Monitor and The Times of London, regular contributor to Time Magazine, and several IHS/Jane’s publications, “THE NEXT WAR: How Another Conflict between Hizballah and Israel Could Look and How Both Sides are Preparing for It,” ANALYSIS PAPER Number 24, August 2011 Hizballah’s Long-Term Goals and Overall Strategy Attempting to analyze Hizballah’s long-term
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protecting the nuclear ambitions of a country lying 650 miles to the east. |
| 03/31/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 7 | Opponent: Mary Washington MM | Judge: Obama’s 5 year lease plan solves the case without opening up the Arctic or the Atlantic seaboard to drilling
Taylor 12—Environmental and Energy Policy reporter Phil Taylor, “Interior to proceed with 'targeted' Arctic leases,” Greenwire: Tuesday, June 26, 2012, pg. http://www.eenews.net/public/Greenwire/2012/06/26/3 The Obama administration today said it will finalize a plan to offer new leases in
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resource data to proceed with development in either ocean, the agency said. - Extend our Nautiyal and Nidamanuri—You should prioritize the preservation of biodiversity hotspots because they are endemic and many unknown species with important ecological functions will be destroyed.
2. We will control the impact framing debate—You must focus on preserving biological hotspots
Kunich 1—Professor of Law @ Roger Williams University School of Law John Charles Kunich, “ARTICLE: Fiddling Around While the Hotspots Burn Out,” Georgetown International Environmental Law Review Winter, 2001 14 Geo. Int'l Envtl. L. Rev. 179
Thus, this author has called the hotspots the "womb of the unknown species
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the places where they will do the greatest good for the greatest number.
3. Preserving US marine ecosystems is key to human survival
Craig 03—Associate Dean for Environmental Programs @ Florida State University Robin Kundis Craig, “ARTICLE: Taking Steps Toward Marine Wilderness Protection? Fishing and Coral Reef Marine Reserves in Florida and Hawaii,” McGeorge Law Review, Winter 2003, 34 McGeorge L. Rev. 155 Biodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine ecosystems also exist, just as they
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its territory relatively pristine marine ecosystems that may be unique in the world. Enviro destruction is the more likely scenario for conflict
Keil 1/31/13—Europe Director for Arctic Security, Cooperation, and Institutions Kathrin Keil (PhD Candidate at the Berlin Graduate School for Transnational Studies(BTS) at the Freie Universität Berlin), “Opening Oil and Gas Development in the Arctic—A Conflict and Risk Assessment,” Arctic Institute, Thursday, January 31, 2013, pg. http://www.thearcticinstitute.org/2013/01/opening-oil-and-gas-development-in.html The picture looks different for environmental consequences of Arctic oil and gas development. The
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not the often-stated likelihood of possibly violent conflicts over Arctic resources. 4. Err neg—the consequences are too dire.
Kunich 5—Professor of Law @ Roger Williams University School of Law John Charles Kunich, “ARTICLE: Losing Nemo: The Mass Extinction Now Threatening the World's Ocean Hotspots,” Columbia Journal of Environmental Law, 2005, 30 Colum. J. Envtl. L. 1 On the other hand, there is an unimaginable cost from failing to preserve the
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are far likelier to fall in favor of hotspots preservation than the opposite. - Our Moringstar and Gravitz ev preempt this—the likelihood of safe drilling is remote in both the Alaska and the Atlantic
A. Temperature and pressure makes methane hydrate drilling inherently dangerous B. Atlantic hotspots are fragile. Their survival is dependent on limiting human activity. 2. Tech failure is inevitable—they will fracture in the Ocean floor.
Pravica 12—Professor of Physics and Astronomy @ University of Nevada, Las Vegas Michael Pravica, “Letters: Science, not profit, must lead deep water drilling,” USA Today, Updated 4/24/2012 8:43 PM , pg. http://tinyurl.com/9g8x28q There are a few critical points not mentioned in the USA TODAY editorial on the
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and adopt a more rational approach to drilling that places safety above profit. 3. They incentivize mindless all-out exploitation that makes disaster inevitable.
Flournoy 11—Professor and Director of the Environmental and Land Use Law Program @ University of Florida Levin College of Law Alyson C. Flournoy, “ARTICLE: THREE META-LESSONS GOVERNMENT AND INDUSTRY SHOULD LEARN FROM THE BP DEEPWATER HORIZON DISASTER AND WHY THEY WILL NOT,” Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review, 2011, 38 B.C. Envtl. Aff. L. Rev. 281 C. How to Learn from the Context of the Disaster: United States' Energy
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to learning, there seems little likelihood that the lessons will be learned. 4. They weaken safety and environmental review—it green lights to the drillers to throw caution to the wind.
Goldstein 11—Director of Government Affairs @ Natural Resources Defense Council Dr. David Goldstein (Former project director for the Bipartisan Policy Center), “Casting Oil Upon the Waters: The House Drilling Bills,” Switchboard, Posted May 2, 2011, pg. http://tinyurl.com/3syxpcl This week, the House could vote on three bills to expand offshore oil and
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. This is not policymaking; it’s a new kind of magical thinking. 5. It will not be safe.
Beinecke 11—President of NRDC Frances Beinecke “House Committee Promotes More Offshore Drilling with Less Oversight,” Switchboard, Posted April 14, 2011, pg. http://tinyurl.com/6jvt3j7 Despite the enormous toll that can come from drilling, Representative Doc Hasting (R
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market …any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant.” Regulations not enforced
Mall 13 Amy, Senior Policy Analyst at the NRDC, “Laws Covering Oil and Gas Wells on Public/Private Lands Poorly Enforced,” The Energy Collective, 3-4, http://theenergycollective.com/amymall/194021/enforcing-laws-oil-and-gas-wells-public-and-private-land-not-we In Fiscal Year 2011, the BLM conducted an Internal Control Review (ICR)
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Protecting the environment needs to be a much higher priority for the agency. |
| 03/31/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 7 | Opponent: Mary Washington MM | Judge: If we win a link it takes out case – turns certainty
Johnson, 11
(Sr. Correspondent-Chemical and Engineering News, Uncertainty Slows Energy Investments, 11/21, http://cen.acs.org/articles/89/i47/Uncertainty-Slows-Energy-Investments.html) Energy economists and clean energy advocates and industries fear that confusion over U.S
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of government affairs for the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental group. Capital will win votes for immigration.
THE HILL 3 – 15 -1 3 Obama support group off to sluggish start, http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/288305-obama-support-group-off-to-sluggish-start Obama sees the group as having the potential to reverse a pivotal mistake from his
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the president. It wasn't necessarily about him but what he could do." AND – more warrants A. House and Senate obstacles falling – avoiding unforeseen issues key
PBS NEWS 3 – 21 – 13 http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2013/03/progress-on-immigration-reform-leaves-leading-advocate-elated-wary.html Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill., center at the podium, has
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public opinion support for a law six years ago, could arise again.
Gutierrez says it's what keeps him from sleeping well. B. despite skepticism and disagreements
IBT 3 – 22 – 13 International Business Tribune http://www.ibtimes.com/immigration-reform-bill-suddenly-close-what-made-republicans-change-their-minds-1145763 When President Barack Obama called on Congress to send him an immigration bill “in
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and a consensus about what to include in the bill is taking shape. C. Republicans are on board
Kimball, 3-30-2013.
(“Demographics Force US Immigration Reform,” http://www.dw.de/demographics-force-us-immigration-reform/a-16699894)
Once an issue that polarized the US, immigration reform now enjoys growing bipartisan support
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Singer, an expert on immigration with the Brookings Institute, told DW. D. Obstacles resolvable
AP 3 – 27 – 13 http://www.startribune.com/politics/200291201.html President Barack Obama pressed for swift action on a sweeping immigration bill Wednesday, saying
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Congress returns from a two-week recess the week of April 8. bipart support – we’re in the home stretch
NBC Latino, 3-27-2013.
(“Obama on Immigration Reform: There will be a pathway to citizenship so people can achieve their dreams,” http://nbclatino.com/2013/03/27/obama-on-immigration-reform-there-will-be-a-pathway-to-citizenship-so-people-can-achieve-their-dreams/)
President Obama says immigration reform is hitting the home stretch.¶ In an interview with
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prepared to step in. But I don’t think that’s gonna be necessary.” Path to citizenship won’t stop the bill – momentum building
IBT 3 – 22 – 13 International Business Tribune http://www.ibtimes.com/immigration-reform-bill-suddenly-close-what-made-republicans-change-their-minds-1145763 A Path To Citizenship
One of the biggest sticking points on immigration reform legislation in the past has always
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for 11 or 12 million people to get a green card or citizenship.” Path to citizenship will get included
NYT 3 – 22 – 13 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/22/us/broad-support-for-path-to-citizenship-poll-finds.html?_r=0 Nearly two-thirds of Americans favor giving illegal immigrants in the country an opportunity
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Institution, which is also nonpartisan, conducts research on public policy issues. Work Visa issues will get resolved
NATIONAL JOURNAL 3 – 26 – 13 http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/why-the-fight-over-work-visas-won-t-doom-the-immigration-bill-20130325 Make no mistake. The immigration bill being crafted by the “Gang of Eight
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worried that without an overhaul, the Hispanic population will become permanent Democrats. 2 Obama pushing immigration – ignoring energy key
HARDER 2 – 6 – 13 National Journal Staff Amy Harder, In Washington, Energy and Climate Issues Get Shoved in the Closet, http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/power-play/in-washington-energy-and-climate-issues-get-shoved-in-the-closet-20130206 At a news conference where TV cameras in the back were nearly stacked on top
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a big win on immigration reform while striking a political blow to Republicans.” 3. The onshore drilling counterplan solves their link turns – it would appease the same people
4. Independently – Delaying the vote risks killing it. Plan doesn’t even have to be unpopular
ABC NEWS 3 – 27 – 13 http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/reasons-immigration-reform-timeline-matters/story?id=18822563#.UVO80By0fzw A group of Democrats and Republicans working on an immigration reform bill in the Senate
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to be unwilling to take a tough vote after that," Fitz said. Coal lobby fights natural gas
Krauss 9—NYT Energy Staff Clifford Krauss, Natural Gas Hits a Roadblock in New Energy Bill, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/07/business/07gas.html The natural gas industry has enjoyed something of a winning streak in recent years
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was still a better fuel because its price is more stable than gas. Coal lobby is powerful—will fight energy fights to keep it strong—insures a fight in congress
Choma 12—money-in-politics reporter for the Center for Responsive Politics Russ Choma, Two Years After Mine Disaster, Coal Lobby Is Still Growing, https://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/04/06-0 Two years ago today, the Upper Big Branch mine exploded, killing 29 miners
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-fired plants back to prominence in the discussion over domestic power sources. Coal lobby controls 87% of congress—more than all other energy votes
Lavelle 11—Staff, Center for Public Integrity Marinanne, 5/13/11, The ‘clean coal’ lobbying blitz, http://www.publicintegrity.org/2009/04/21/2885/%E2%80%98clean-coal%E2%80%99-lobbying-blitz However one interprets ACCCE’s message, it has the power of well-heeled and
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Obama and administration officials expounding on coal’s role in the nation’s energy future. Plan is a flip flop for Obama – he’s pushing stricter regulations
Ngai 12—Huffington Post Contributor Catherine, May 5, “Obama proposes public land fracking rules,” Lexis, d/a 7-20-12, ads The Obama administration released draft rules Friday that would require companies to publicly disclose what
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would require public disclosure of chemicals used after fracturing operations have been completed. No action on energy now – other issues are taking up Obama’s political capital
BRINKER 3 – 12 – 13 MA in the MAPSS program at U Chicago Luke Brinker, A change in political climate, http://chicagomaroon.com/2013/03/12/a-change-in-political-climate/ By 2010, Obama and the Democrats had consumed so much political capital on the
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to say there’s nothing Obama can do on the subject in the meantime. 4. Hirsh admits the agenda sometimes works that way
HIRSH 12 – 14 – 12 Michael Hirsh, Obama Gets a Solution to His Susan Rice Problem, http://www.nationaljournal.com/whitehouse/obama-gets-a-solution-to-his-susan-rice-problem-20121213 It was a classic Washington exit: stealthy and swift, with few fingerprints.
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capital, especially when it came to a long-term budget deal. - Winners Lose and capital is finite—can’t replenish
Beckmann and Kumar 11—Professor of Political Science, UC, Irvine Matthew N. Beckmann and Vimal Kumar, How presidents push, when presidents win: A model of positive presidential power in US lawmaking, Journal of Theoretical Politics 2011 23: 3
As with all lobbyists, presidents looking to push legislation must do so indirectly by
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is to explicate those margins and show how presidents may systematically influence them.
2. Health care and climate prove winners don’t win
Lashof 10—director of the National Resource Defense Council's climate center, Ph.D. from the Energy and Resources Group at UC-Berkeley (Dan, “Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda: Lessons from Senate Climate Fail.” NRDC Switchboard Blog, http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/dlashof/coulda_shoulda_woulda_lessons.html) Lesson 2: Political capital is not necessarily a renewable resource.
Perhaps the most fateful decision the Obama administration made early on was to move healthcare
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political capital in time to help push climate legislation across the finish line. 3. Plan isn’t a win—adding issues makes it more likely winners will lose.
Pastor 91—Professor of political science at Emory University and director of the Latin American and Caribbean Program at Emory’s Carter Center Robert A., “Congress and U.S. Foreign Policy: Comparative Advantage or Disadvantage,” The Washington Quarterly, Autumn The third dysfunction in interbranch relations is the length of time and the amount of
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came more easily in Congress, and he looked stronger as a result. Plan insures bickering – energy debates are divisive
Addison 12—Associate Editor of E and P Magazine Velda, Logjam Between Congress, Administration Hobbles Oil Policy, http://blogs.epmag.com/rebecca/2012/06/27/logjam-between-congress-administration-hobbles-oil-policy/ The continued bickering between Congress and the administration of President Barack Obama continues to be
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energy policy, and we can’t wait for an emergency to create it. |
