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1AC
Gas Advantage
Natural gas is gaining market dominance – expansion of nuclear power avoids a bridge to nowhere
Jesse Jenkins, director of energy and climate policy at the Breakthrough Institute, previously worked as a Policy and Research Associate at the Renewable Northwest Project, 1-20-2012, “Avoiding a Natural Gas Bridge to Nowhere,” The Energy Collective, http://theenergycollective.com/breakthroughinstitut/74658/avoiding-natural-gas-bridge-nowhere
Just as the history of unconventional natural gas
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depends on our willingness to invest in innovation.
Long term lock in is coming – building up alternatives is key
Christopher Jones, Ciriacy-Wantrup Fellow, University of California-Berkeley, 8-29-2012, “Natural Gas: Bridge or Dead End?” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/christopher-f-jones/bridge-or-dead-end_b_1837015.html
Natural gas is often touted as a bridge
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, but also about building off-ramps.
Use natural gas as a bridge to nowhere ensures a methane apocalypse – expansion of nuclear reduces the short run magnitude of emissions preventing the climate from crossing short run tipping points.
Bill Chameides, Dean, Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment, 7-20-2012, “Natural Gas: A Bridge to a Low-Carbon Future or Not?” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bill-chameides/-natural-gas-a-bridge-to_b_1690857.html
Not really, scientists like Bob Howarth of
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is flushed from the atmosphere? Probably not.
Controlling methane emissions is more important than CO2 – methane hits us while we are vulnerable.
Joe Romm, Fellow at American Progress and is the editor of Climate Progress, acting assistant secretary of energy for energy efficiency and renewable energy in 1997, PHD in physics from MIT, 4-9-2012, “Natural Gas Is A Bridge To Nowhere Absent A Carbon Price AND Strong Standards To Reduce Methane Leakage”, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/09/460384/natural-gas-is-a-bridge-to-nowhere-absent-a-carbon-price-and-strong-standards-to-reduce-methane-leakage/
A new journal article finds that methane leakage
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coal for at least some period of time.
Fugitive emissions are massive – best sources – latest studies confirm
David Lewis, PHD, staff writer, 12-7-2010, “EPA confirms high Natural Gas leakage rates,” The Energy Collective, http://theenergycollective.com/david-lewis/48209/epa-confirms-high-natural-gas-leakage-rates
The latest EPA study confirms that its original
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states the reference data was bad all along.
Methane release is insulated from the warming debate – unique threat
Clean Energy Educational Trust, energy and environmental analysts, 2001, “Runaway Methane Global Warming,” Hydrogen NOW! Journal, http://www.hydrogen.co.uk/h2_now/journal/articles/3_Methane.htm
Core samples taken from old ocean sediment layers
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the raised temperatures would last a lot longer.
Rapid climate shifts cause extinction
Max Mcclure, staff writer, 6-7-2012, “Earth may be approaching 'tipping point,' Stanford scientist says,” Stanford University News, http://news.stanford.edu/news/2012/june/earth-tipping-point-060712.html
It's already established that global biological systems are
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intergovernmental structure necessary to manage for this future."
Nuclear build up diversifies energy production – insulates against price spikes
Christine Todd Whitman, former EPA administrator and New Jersey governor, is the co-chair of the Clean and Safe Energy Coalition which promotes the inclusion of nuclear power as part of a clean energy portfolio, 5-9-2012, “It's dangerous to depend on natural gas,” Fortune, http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/09/christine-whitman-nuclear-energy/
The United States needs an "all of
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a safe and sustainable portfolio of energy resources.
Price spikes are inevitable and collapse the economy without nuclear power
Rod Adams, gained his nuclear knowledge as a submarine engineer officer and as the founder of a company that tried to develop a market for small, modular reactors from 1993-1999, 8-30-2012, “Will natural gas prices in North America skyrocket by the end of 2014?” The Energy Collective, http://theenergycollective.com/rodadams/107901/look-out-natural-gas-prices-north-america-will-skyrocket-end-2014?ref=node_other_posts_by
In the publications that I regularly read,
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against the rocky shore of high energy prices.
Stable energy prices are key to manufacturing
Shelly Schwartz, staff writer, 6-20-2012, “Can the Natural Gas Sector Save the US Economy?” CNBC, http://www.cnbc.com/id/47280026/Can_the_Natural_Gas_Sector_Save_the_US_Economy
Like most commodities, natural gas has been
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are now second only to the Middle East.”
Manufacturing isn’t resilient – could totally collapse
Arvind Kaushal et al, partner with Booz and Co, Thomas Mayor, senior executive advisor, Patricia Riedel, principal at Booz and Co. Fall 2011, "Manufacturing’s Wake-Up Call" Booz and Co. http://booz.com/media/file/sb64-11306-Manufacturing~’s-Wake-Up-Call.pdf
Both the optimists and the pessimists are partially
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then erode past the point of no return.
Economic shocks are inevitable – strong domestic manufacturing is key to economic resilience and retaining our innovation leadership
Michael Ettlinger, the Vice President for Economic Policy at the Center for American Progress, former director of the Economic Analysis and Research Network of the Economic Policy Institute, and Kate Gordon, the Vice President for Energy Policy at the Center for American Progress, April 2011, "The Importance and Promise of American Manufacturing" http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/04/pdf/manufacturing.pdf-
Manufacturing is critically important to the American economy
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rate fluctuations to trade embargoes to natural disasters.
No decoupling – US key to global demand and US protectionism kills the global economy
Desmond Lachman, resident fellow at AEI, 11-1-2007, “The Global Economic Decoupling Myth,” AEI, http://www.aei.org/article/27052
Not so long ago, the conventional wisdom
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simply the U.S., economic recovery.
Econ decline causes war
Earl Tilford, PhD in history from George Washington University and served for thirty-two years as a military officer and analyst with the Air Force and Army, 2008, “Critical Mass: Economic Leadership or Dictatorship,” The Cedartown Standard, Lexis
Could it happen again? Bourgeois democracy requires
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world could devolve to that point very quickly.
Our theoretical models trump – transitions, future expectations, and diversionary war theory all confirm econ decline causes war
Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline
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economic-security debate and deserves more attention.
Challengers are building up – manufacturing key to overall military superiority and deterrence
Mackenzie Eaglen et al, American Enterprise Institute, Rebecca Grant, IRIS Research, Robert P. Haffa, Haffa Defense Consulting, Michael O’Hanlon, The Brookings Institution, Peter W. Singer, The Brookings Institution, Martin Sullivan, Commonwealth Consulting, Barry Watts, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, January 2012, "The Arsenal of Democracy and How to Preserve It: Key Issues in Defense Industrial Policy, Brookings, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/1/26%20defense%20industrial%20base/0126_defense_industrial_base_ohanlon
Yet there are severe challenges that could result
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build nuclear submarines is a frequently cited example.)
US decline causes great power wars
Yuhan Zhang is a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.; and Lin Shi is from Columbia University. She also serves as an independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and a consultant for the World Bank in Washington, D.C., 1-22-2011, “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry,” http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/
Over the past two decades, no other
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will inevitably be devoid of unrivalled US primacy.
Prolif Advantage
Yes Rapid Prolif
We’re on the brink of rapid prolif – access to tech is inevitable and multilateral institutions fail
CFR 7-5-2012, “The Global Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime,” Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.cfr.org/proliferation/global-nuclear-nonproliferation-regime/p18984
Nuclear weapons proliferation, whether by state or
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and security of a world without nuclear weapons."
Nuclear hedging means proliferation would be rapid
Mitchell Reiss, fmr director of the Reves Center for International Studies, 2004, “The Nuclear Tipping Point”
Or it may be that countries would not
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political decision to tip them over the edge.
Regional prolif causes cascades
Kurt Campbell, senior vice president and director of the International Security Program and Chair in National Security at CSIS, 2004, “The Nuclear Tipping Point”
A nation’s desire to achieve a balance of
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United States, Russia, and South Asia.
Prolif snowballs – declining cred causes allied prolif
Matthew Kroenig, Professor of Government at Georgetown and Fellow at CFR specializing in Nuclear Security, 5-26-2012, “The History of Proliferation Optimism: Does It Have A Future?” Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, http://www.npolicy.org/article.php?aid=1182andrtid=2
Undermines alliances: The spread of nuclear weapons
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and threatening Washington’s ability to influence regional dynamics.
Prolif Bad – Nuke War
Prolif incentivizes aggression – that causes regional instability and increased conventional wars which escalate to global nuclear war
Matthew Kroenig, Professor of Government at Georgetown and Fellow at CFR specializing in Nuclear Security, 5-26-2012, “The History of Proliferation Optimism: Does It Have A Future?” Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, http://www.npolicy.org/article.php?aid=1182andrtid=2
Regional instability: The spread of nuclear weapons
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to a wider war in the Middle East.
Nuke Terror
Increased prolif ensures nuclear terrorism
Matthew Kroenig, Professor of Government at Georgetown and Fellow at CFR specializing in Nuclear Security, 5-26-2012, “The History of Proliferation Optimism: Does It Have A Future?” Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, http://www.npolicy.org/article.php?aid=1182andrtid=2
Nuclear terrorism. The spread of nuclear weapons
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worry about the fate of Iran’s nuclear arsenal.
Nuclear terror causes retal – global escalation
Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)
A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the
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might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.
It causes the same causalities as full scale nuke war
O. B. Toon, et al. department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, U Colorado Boulder, 4-19-2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1973-2002.
To an increasing extent, people are congregating
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well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.
Civilian Nukes Key
Civilian nuclear power is key to nuclear leadership – that’s key to control prolif
Pete Domenici, former senator from New Mexico, and Warren F. “Pete” Miller, part time Research Professor at Texas A and M University and former assistant secretary for nuclear energy at the U.S. Department of Energy, July 2012, “Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Global Nuclear Energy Markets,” Bipartisan Policy Center, http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Leadership%20in%20Nuclear%20Energy%20Markets.pdf
Nuclear power technologies are distinct from other potential
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about the proliferation of uranium-enrichment capabilities).
Strong nuclear industry key to global leadership – loan guarantees are critical
Olga Belogolova, staff writer, 7-19-2012, “U.S. Nuclear Industry Seen Needing a Boost,” National Journal Daily, Lexis.
A robust nuclear-energy industry should be
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might not be willing to wait any longer.
US leadership is key – only direct government pressure solves
CFR 7-5-2012, “The Global Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime,” Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.cfr.org/proliferation/global-nuclear-nonproliferation-regime/p18984
International instruments for combating nuclear proliferation were largely
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sustainability of the nonproliferation regime are no surprise.
New nuclear capacity is key – slowing investment swamps all alt causes
Pete Domenici, former senator from New Mexico, and Warren F. “Pete” Miller, part time Research Professor at Texas A and M University and former assistant secretary for nuclear energy at the U.S. Department of Energy, July 2012, “Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Global Nuclear Energy Markets,” Bipartisan Policy Center, http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Leadership%20in%20Nuclear%20Energy%20Markets.pdf
As the world’s largest commercial nuclear operator and
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could erode U.S. international standing.
Maintaining dominance in exports is key – absent that diplomacy fails
Pete Domenici, former senator from New Mexico, and Warren F. “Pete” Miller, part time Research Professor at Texas A and M University and former assistant secretary for nuclear energy at the U.S. Department of Energy, July 2012, “Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Global Nuclear Energy Markets,” Bipartisan Policy Center, http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Leadership%20in%20Nuclear%20Energy%20Markets.pdf
As an active participant in commercial markets,
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Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as well.
Civilian nuclear policy is modeled and spills over to global nuclear leadership
Scott D. Sagan, Professor of Political Science and Co-Director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, 4-18-2011, “The International Security Implications Of U.S. Domestic Nuclear Power Decisions,” http://cybercemetery.unt.edu/archive/brc/20120621005012/http://brc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/sagan_brc_paper_final.pdf
Reasonable people may well disagree about the value
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policies influence the decisions made by foreign governments.
Plan
Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase loan guarantees for the expansion of nuclear power in the United States.
Solvency
Solvency – Loan Guarantees
Loan guarantees attract private capital – increases are key
Ari Peskoe, associate in the law firm of McDermott Will and Emery LLP and focuses his practice on regulatory, legislative, compliance, and transactional issues related to energy markets, 4-20-2012, “A Solution Looking For a Problem: Building More Nuclear Reactors after Vogtle,” The Electricty Journal, vol 25 issue 3, Science Direct
Given the checkered history of reactor construction projects
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the liabilities associate with a nuclear disaster.64
Government support overcomes financial barriers – key hurdle
Kassia Yanosek, entrepreneur-in-residence at Stanford University’s Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance and a private equity investor in the energy sector as a principal at Quadrant Management and Founder of Tana Energy Capital LLC, Spring 2012, " Financing Nuclear Power in the US", energyclub.stanford.edu/index.php/Journal/Financing_Nuclear_Power_by_Kassia_Yanosek
Over the course of the last decade,
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guarantees provided in the 2005 Energy Policy Act.
Makes nuclear competitive – nuclear plants are cheap to operate
Charles Ferguson, president of the Federation of American Scientists, November 2011, “JAPAN MELTED DOWN. BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN THE END OF THE ATOMIC AGE,” Foreign Policy issue 189, EBSCO
IN FACT, NUCLEAR POWER plants are relatively
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you factor in the risks of climate change.
Nukes are scalable – we can deploy them quickly
Anne Winslow, researcher at Stanford University and the MonAme Scientific Research Center in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, 6-28-2011, “A Nuclear Renaissance: The Role of Nuclear Power in Mitigating Climate Change,” American Institute of Physics Conference Proceedings, EBSCO
Furthermore, nuclear energy is a scalable technology
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generating over 3 billion per year 18.
Federal signal is key to attracting private capital
Michael Scott, former senior advisor at the Department of Treasury and partner and managing director at Miller Buckfire and Co as well as head of the firm’s U.S. Government Advisory practice, 4-20-2010, “Statement of Michael D. Scott” Testimony before the Subcommittee on Domestic Policy of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform in the House of Representatives, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-111hhrg65123/pdf/CHRG-111hhrg65123.pdf
The President and Congress have a very powerful
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before any closing on a Federal loan guarantee.
