Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
Off

    Interpretation—The aff should have to defend immediate implementation of the plan
    a. Resolved means definitive action—not a delay
    Dictionary.com no date (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/resolved)
     “Resolved: to come to a definite or earnest decision about; determine”

b. Should implies a swift obligation to act
American Heritage® Dictionary ’96  1996, 1992 by Houghton Mifflin Company, www.dictionary.com, accessed 4/2/01
should (shd)    v. aux. Past tense of shall.
1.Used to express obligation or duty: You should send her a note. 

2. Violation—The aff will claim the plan happens in the future or that they don’t have to defend when the plan happens

3. Prefer our interpretation
a. Neg Offense—Time sensitive arguments are key to every piece of offense we can generate—ESPECIALLY on topics prone to the “Obama Effect,” destroys all neg ground
b. Most predictable—Any other interpretation is unpredictable because the aff can potentially pick any future date for implementation—this justifies “Do the aff when Obama is out of office,” which makes it impossible to research or engage them
c. Their abuse claims will be the counterplan—if we win the counterplan is theoretically legitimate you have to default to our interpretation because it means the aff skewed legitimate neg ground.

Voter for fairness, education, and jurisdiction.

T Should be viewed through an offense/defense paradigm because it creates a race to the middle and solves judge intervention—especially important when defining the topic at the beginning of the season.

Off
Obama will win- most recent polls and momentum are on his side
Silver 9/28/2012 (Nate, Genius, writer for FiveThirtyEight, now under the New York Times, The blog is devoted to rigorous analysis of politics, polling, public affairs, sports, science and culture, largely through statistical means, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/28/sept-27-the-impact-of-the-47-percent/)
Thursday’s Polls¶ What we can say with more confidence is that Mr. Romney
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Nov. 6 forecast, up from 81.9 percent on Wednesday.
Renewables NOT popular—multiple reasons
 -climate change lost its political charge,
 -Econ fears outweigh any anti-climate change or pro renewables attitudes
 -current econ climate makes subsidizing RE politically unpalatable
 -New shale gas discoveries are the “knock out blow” to RE
-more political support to spend money adapting to climate change—not for mitigation strategies.
von Schirach, ’12 Grim Prospects For Renewable Energy In The US – Subsidies Politically Unpopular – Natural Gas A Much Cheaper Alternative – USG Should Focus On RandD, By Paolo von Schirach As a consultant, Paolo focuses on energy, innovation and sustainable development. He has been Director of Communications and Senior Research Fellow at the Atlantic Council of the United States, in Washington, DC; Deputy Director of the Global Security Project and more recently Adjunct Professor in the Graduate Program of the School of Foreign Service, (MSFS), at Georgetown University in Washington, DC. Paolo von Schirach is a regular contributor to Swiss Radio and a frequent guest lecturer at the Foreign Service Institute (FSI) of the US Department of State. http://schirachreport.com/index.php/2012/05/11/grim-prospects-for-renewable-energy-in-the-us-subsidies-politically-unpopular-natural-gas-a-much-cheaper-alternative-usg-should-focus-on-rd/May 11, 2012
WASHINGTON – American enthusiasm for renewable energy, not too deep to begin with,
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Gas is still a fossil fuel, but it is the cleanest around.
 Base Mobilization key to winning the election—empirically proven for incumbents
WSJ 12 (The Wall Street Journal “As in 2004, energizing the base a key to victory” 5/22/12 http://www.myfoxdfw.com/story/18583004/as-in-2004-energizing-the-base-a-key-to-victory#ixzz1MekSBwU) KY
President Barack Obama does not often dwell on similarities to his predecessor, George W
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But 2004 suggests that both sides' strategies may start with mobilizing the core.

Obama win key to US-Russia relations – Romney’s agenda is belligerent and controversial.
Reichardt 7/9. (Adam is the Managing Editor of New Eastern Europe, “Considering Russia in the Voting Booth,” New Eastern Europe, 2012, http://www.neweasterneurope.eu/node/382)

Obama’s policy towards Russia is easier to gauge, since there has already been four years of his administration to judge. As Ross Wilson noted, “President Obama has a four-year record with Russia to defend – i.e., the reset policy and the benefits that the administration will argue have accrued from its more pragmatic and less confrontational approach to relations with Moscow.”
President Obama’s policy of reset was indeed a glimmer of hope for US-Russian relations at the start of 2009, but that glimmer has all but faded. The case of Syria and Iran are clear examples of the real challenges America still faces when engaging with Russia on global issues and the Obama campaign will most likely avoid referring to the “reset” by name.
“Though the Administration will not use the expression ‘reset’ too much, it can be expected to continue to emphasize pragmatism and to implement that line if the president is re-elected,” Wilson believes.
Obama’s opponent, Mitt Romney, has been less clear about his position on relations
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no Cold War, but Russia is a geopolitical foe in that regard."
The Romney campaign’s web site reveals several areas of focus for Russia, none of them discuss active engagement, but rather focus on taking tougher stances with Russia, including renegotiating the New Start Treaty, decreasing Europe’s energy reliance on Russia, building stronger relations with Central Asia, as well as supporting Russia’s civil society.
Surprisingly, the last one, engaging Russia’s civil society, could be the most
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in the opposition – it could hurt the entire goal of this platform.
Having the American government play an active role in the changes happening inside Russia could be detrimental to US-Russian relations. Many Russians believe that changes within their own country should be driven from the Russian society. Any outside interference would hurt the legitimacy of the Russian opposition and cause the Russian elite to become even more suspicious, and perhaps even hostile, to the intentions of American foreign policy.

Extinction
Collins and Rojansky 10 – * U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation from 1997 to 2001, AND deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment (8/18/10, James F. Collins, Matthew Rojansky, Foreign Policy, “Why Russia Matters,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=viewandid=41409,)
A year and a half after Barack Obama hit the "reset" button with
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to maintain relations with Russia. And good relations would be even better.

Off
The United State Federal Government should ban all financial energy incentives including Master Limited Partnerships.
Energy subsidies must be eliminated to spur innovation and become competitive in the market
Phillips, president of Americans for Prosperity, the nation’s leading free-market grass-roots organization and From, Illinois state director of Americans for Prosperity, the nation’s leading free-market grass-roots organization, 6-28-12 (Tim Phillips and David From, “Eliminate Energy Subsidies”, State Journal Register, http://www.sj-r.com/opinions/x1762345964/Tim-Phillips-and-David-From-Eliminate-energy-subsidies?zc_p=0)

Obviously, it’s time for lawmakers to realize that if a new technology truly has
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their professed free-market principles and get rid of these special giveaways.
Politics is a net benefit
Randazzo, ’12 INCENTIVES AT EVERY TURN By Ryan Randazzo, Posted 5/6/2012 The Arizona Republic http://www.usatoday.com/USCP/PNI/Business/2012-05-06-PNI0506biz-subsidiesPNIBrd_ST_U.htm
Amid all the debate regarding subsidies, political polar opposites have found common ground calling
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), you need to work together with people that are aligned with you."

Off
The United States federal government should expand eligibility for Master Limited Partnerships for the production of wind power after the conclusion of the November 6, 2012 United States presidential election.

Competition is established via our Topicality argument and Disads.

Off
Natural gas is dominating the energy sector now – abundant shale gas supplies
Conrad 8/9/12 (Roger S. Conrad is editor of Utility Forecaster, August 9, 2012, Natural Gas Prices Tick Up On Hot Weather, But Investors Shouldn't Expect Much More Upside, http://seekingalpha.com/article/795201-natural-gas-prices-tick-up-on-hot-weather-but-investors-shouldn-t-expect-much-more-upside)
Four months ago, natural gas bottomed out at a 10-year low of
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return to even last summer's price range of $4 to $5.
Wind power displaces natural gas – DOE report proves.
Barber -08 (Jeff Barber, Global Power Report, May 15, 2008, US could produce 20% of its power from wind by 2030, says DOE report, Lexis)
The US could reach the "ambitious" goal of obtaining 20% of its
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produced on US soil or imported from any friendly nation with production capabilities."
Increased natural gas reduces the risk of global resource conflict.
Hunt -12 (Gary Hunt is President, Scalable Growth Strategy Advisors, an independent energy technology and information services adviser and a partner in Tech and Creative Labs, 15 February 2012, How the US Shale Boom Will Change the World, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/How-the-US-Shale-Boom-Will-Change-the-World.html)
Abundant energy reduces global conflict Abundant and evenly distributed energy sources (natural gas) reduce the intensity of competition for new energy sources of New Core countries like India and China. Bringing this new fuel to domestic markets will have a higher priority than energy adventurism (China’s search for energy in Africa.) It also allows important global players to focus on growing their economies rather than growing their militaries to insure themselves against resource scarcity.
Resource tension causes nuclear conflict with Russia and China – the impact is extinction
Henderson 7, Besline Research CEO/President/consultant, (Bill, CounterCurrents.org, February 24, “Climate Change, Peak Oil, and Nuclear War”, http://www.countercurrents.org/cc-henderson240207.htm, 7/9/08)
Countercurrents.org By Bill Henderson  Damocles had one life threatening sword hanging by a
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to extinction for humanity and much of what we now recognize as nature. 

Economy
Plan can’t solve the economy
Post, 11 (Willem, SME New Jersey Institute of Technology, MSME Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, MBA, University of Connecticut. P.E. Connecticut. Consulting Engineer and Project Manager, “Wind Energy Does Little to Reduce CO2 Emissions”, 9/8/11, http://theenergycollective.com/node/64492) WP
Within federal, state and local governments tens of thousands of people are busying themselves promoting renewables by with holding meetings and public hearings, preparing studies, writing reports, energy plans, laws, rules and regulations, monitoring projects for compliance, etc.¶ Outside of government wind turbine vendors (Siemens, GE, Vestas, Iberdrola, etc,), project developers/owners, financiers managing tax shelters, trade organizations, etc., are busying themselves popularizing wind energy as saving the planet from global warming with PR campaigns that claim there would be significant reductions of fossil fuel consumption and CO2 reductions/kWh, that capital costs/MW would decrease, and that wind energy costs/kWh would be at grid parity in the near future. These claims have largely not been realized. ¶ Global Warming is a Given: A just-released report from EIA shows the actual world energy consumption data and projected consumption data for the 1990 to 2035 period. The report shows world energy consumption is estimated to increase from 505 quads in 2008 to 770 quads in 2035, a 52% increase. The biggest part of the increase is by (non-OECD nations + Asia).¶ http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/world.cfm¶ See spreadsheet associated with figure 12¶ World energy consumption by fuel (quadrillion Btu) ¶ Liquids: From 173.2 in 2010 to 225.1 in 2035; 30% more¶ Natural gas: 116.7 to 174.7; 50% more¶ Coal: 149.4 to 209.1; 49% more¶ Nuclear: 27.6 to 51.2; 86% more¶ Renewables: 55.2 to 109.5; 98% more¶ Renewables fraction of total consumption: From 10.6% in 2010 to 15.2% in 2035¶ Fossil fraction of total consumption: 84.1% to 79.1%¶ The significant increase in projected fossil fuel consumption during the next 24 years means global warming will continue unabated, because (non-OECD + ASIA) will have energy consumption growth far outpacing the energy consumption growth of the rest of the world; i.e., global warming is a given. ¶ The above indicates the enormous investments required to achieve the 2035 projected renewables energy production would have practically no benefit regarding global warming.¶ This means policy makers should shift renewables subsidies to energy efficiency which will not only reduce CO2 without controversies, but will actually do some good for household and business energy bills and thereby raise their living standards and profits.¶ That would be the rational thing to do. However, using Greenspan's words, the people, including legislators and bureaucrats, have become "irrationally exuberant" regarding renewables reducing global warming. The above shows, it is an expensive and futile tilting at wind mills a la Don Quixote.¶ Competitiveness: The above begs the question: If wind energy reduces CO2 by so very little/kWh, or not at all, or increases it, AND requires so much capital/MW to implement, AND produces energy at such a high cost/kWh, AND has such huge adverse impacts on quality of life (noise and infrasound, visuals, social unrest, psychological), property values and the environment, why are we, as a nation, making ourselves even less efficient relative to our competitors by this slavish, lemming-like pursuit of expensive wind energy?¶ Who Benefits: Could it be that the Wall Street elites see the 30% federal cash grants, accelerated write-offs, generous feed-in tariffs and renewable energy credits as major tax shelters and long-term income streams (preferably tax-free) for themselves and their high-income clients, all at the expense of the Main Street economy which is already economically depressed? ¶ If the amounts of the grants and taxes-not-collected due to these deductions from taxable incomes are totaled, it would be evident wind energy is very expensively subsidized indeed; not helpful for reducing budget deficits.¶ Roll more and more such expensive wind energy into rate schedules and the US will become even less competitive than at present: not helpful for reducing trade deficits. ¶ Wind energy promoters often use Denmark as the model to emulate. However, Denmark is in the unique position of having a large capacity of hydro plants of Norway and Sweden available for balancing wind energy; i.e., other grids with little or no hydro plants cannot use Denmark as a model. This unique position has been unfortunate for Danish households, because their electric rates are the highest in Europe; France, 80% nuclear, has the lowest.
Plan won’t create a wind market
Murphy, 12 (Robert, economist with IER specializing in climate change, received his Ph.D. in economics from New York University, Institute for Energy Research, “Assessing the Production Tax Credit”, 4/24/12, http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2012/04/24/assessing-the-production-tax-credit/) WP
Recognizing what Americans’ priorities are in a time of severe recession, proponents of extending
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be able to survive on a level tax- and regulatory playing field.
Wind destroys the grid—Makes failures worse
Tverberg, 12 (Gail, received a M.S. in Mathematics from the University of Illinois, Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries, Much of her early career was spent with CNA Insurance Companies in Chicago, Illinois. There she was involved in both pricing and reserving of casualty insurance coverages, “The Six Obstacles Facing US Wind Energy”, The Oil Drum, 1/19/12, lexis) WP
Obstacle 6: Adding wind energy to the electric grid adds complexity which may be
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time may come when the high cost of maintaining the system becomes unsustainable.
Decline doesn’t cause war
Barnett 9, senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC, contributing editor/online columnist for Esquire, 8/25,
(Thomas P.M, “The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis,” Aprodex, Asset Protection Index, http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules~-~-security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx)
When the global financial crisis struck roughly a year ago, the blogosphere was ablaze
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. Our new Africa Command, for example, hasn't led us to anything
The economy is resilient
Zakaria 9 (Fareed Zakaria, Editor of Newsweek International, 12-21-2009, “The Secrets of Stability,” Newsweek, http://www.newsweek.com/id/226425)
Others predicted that these economic shocks would lead to political instability and violence in the
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while affected by the West, their fortunes are not entirely dependent on it  
No Middle East War
Fettweis 7, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College,
(Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98)
Without the US presence, a second argument goes, nothing would prevent Sunni-
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cooperation to address that common interest is far more likely than outright warfare.
Zero risk of nuclear terrorism
Mearsheimer 11 (Professor of Political Science at UChicago, John, January, “Imperial by Design,” http://nationalinterest.org/article/imperial-by-design-4576?page=10, Mike)
The fact is that states have strong incentives to distrust terrorist groups, in part
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by accident-causing deer, or by severe allergic reactions to peanuts.”

Warming
Variability Increases Reliance on Old Plants – Cancels Out Emissions Reductions
Paul Willis 2012 June Wind Power’s CO2-Cutting Impact Disputed http://www.earthtechling.com/2012/06/wind-powers-co2-cutting-impact-disputed/
The problem, according to he Argonne research, is not the clean energy itself
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burning power plants are also less efficient when not operating at full capacity.
Intermittency Means Wind Increases CO2 Emissions From Older Plants
Williem Post BSME New Jersey Institute of Technology, MSME Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, MBA, University of Connecticut. P.E. Connecticut. Consulting Engineer and Project Manager 2012 July 1 Wind Energy CO2 Emissions Reductions are Overstated http://theenergycollective.com/node/89476
Variability: Because wind energy increases by the cube of the wind speed, any
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energy on the grid should reduce the grid CO2 emission intensity by 10%.
Reductions Are Minimal
Lomborg, 12 (Bjørn, director of the Copenhagen Consensus Center since 2006, Adjunct Professor at Copenhagen Business School, received a MA (Aarhus) and later a PhD (Copenhagen) in political science, author of The Skeptical Environmentalist and Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming, “Green Power: Wind power does not help to avert climate change”, http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-03-19/news/31210516_1_wind-turbines-wind-power-wind-farms) WP
Efforts to stem global warming have nurtured a strong urge worldwide to deploy renewable energy
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alone.¶ For any country, this seems like a very poor choice.

Warming is Inevitable—Past emissions stay in the atmosphere
Walsh 1-10-11 (Bryan Walsh, TIME magazine http://ecocentric.blogs.time.com/2011/01/10/climate-unstoppable-global-warming/#ixzz1QVftMyb3)

One of the biggest obstacles to reducing carbon emissions is the simple fact that political
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The damage is already done—and continues for the next 900 years.

NASA scientists climate study concludes an unlikely slowdown in warming
James Hansen, Reto Ruedy, Makiko Sato and Ken Lo, 1-18-12 James E. Hansen heads the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, Reto Ruedo works at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,  2012, Global Temperature in 2011, Trends, and Prospects, Google Scholar

2011 was only the ninth warmest year in the GISS analysis of global temperature change
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prove illusory, with more rapid warming appearing over the next few years.
A complete transition to alternatives wouldn’t affect climate change – recent life-cycle analyses
TASNEEM ABBASI, Volume 42, Issue 2, 12an assistant professor at the Centre for Pollution Control and Environmental Engineering, Pondicherry University, India, Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology, Is the Use of Renewable Energy Sources an Answer to the Problems of Global Warming and Pollution? Is the Use of Renewable Energy Sources an Answer to the Problems of Global Warming and Pollution? 

Among the rare notes of caution toward presupposing the ecofriend- liness of renewable energy
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global warming unless the energy production (and consumption) are drastically reduced.
Arctic data supports the claim that warming will not be runaway
Idso and Idso 2011 Craig D. (founder and chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change) Sherwood B. (president of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change) February “Carbon Dioxide and Earth’s Future Pursuing the Prudent Path” http://www.co2science.org/education/reports/prudentpath/prudentpath.pdf. 

With respect to the recent rate at which the earth has warmed, we examine
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-century" -- was by far "the most striking historical example."
No Impact—Warming occurs in the winter and at night
Eschenbach 10 (Independent Climate Researcher, Climate Specialties: Tropical tropospheric amplification, constructal theories of climate, “Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics … and Graphs”, Watts Up With That)
So I decided to look for a way to present exactly the same information so
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above is probably shown somewhere about twice as large as it actually is …
CO2 doesn’t cause warming
Lewis 7 (Richard, Institute of Economic Affairs, Global Warming False Alarms,
www.globalwarminghype.com/upld-book403pdf_.pdf)
The cornerstone of the global warming theory is that the CO2 content of the atmosphere
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is today but the air  temperature was only 1.5 degrees higher.
concentrations of greenhouse gases.6

Solvency

MLP prevents effective renewable energy – only causes tax shelters.
Sherlock and Keightley -11 (Molly F. Sherlock, Analyst in Economics, Mark P. Keightley, Analyst in Public Finance, June 28, 2011, Master Limited Partnerships: A Policy Option for the Renewable Energy Industry, Congressional Research Service Report, http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/eyeonwashington/2011/documents/masterlmtdpartnerships.pdf)
Allowing renewable energy facilities to structure as MLPs, if enacted jointly with policies that
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credits could create opportunities for tax shelters like those seen in the 1980s.

MLPs can’t solve renewable energy development – do not aid the development of technology.
Sherlock and Keightley -11 (Molly F. Sherlock, Analyst in Economics, Mark P. Keightley, Analyst in Public Finance, June 28, 2011, Master Limited Partnerships: A Policy Option for the Renewable Energy Industry, Congressional Research Service Report, http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/eyeonwashington/2011/documents/masterlmtdpartnerships.pdf)
One final point of potential concern is that MLPs have typically been used to finance
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have moved beyond field testing but have not yet been deployed at scale.  

Process Counterplans Legit 2NC/1NR (LONG)

    CI: This is the only process CP we can run

2. It’s a defense of the quo—meets the neg burden of proving the plans a bad idea, means it’s predictable—that solves the internal link to your ground claims.

3. real world—Timing is a CRITICAL argument on the ENERGY PRODUCTION TOPIC—the politics and local movements disads are time sensitive which means we need to be able to test when the plan is done. Debate should mirror the context of the literature otherwise makes topic education moot.

4. Tests the strength of fiat— if we prove fiat is immediate, it’s their burden to defend it

            CROSS APPLY THIS STUFF FROM ABOVE *

            READ ONLY IF THIS IS WHERE THEY DEFINE RESOLVED * “Resolved”- requires transparency
            Rhymezone Dictionary (http://www.rhymezone.com/r/rhyme.cgi?Word=resolve, Mike)
            Definitions of resolve:   noun:   the trait of being resolute; firmness of purpose  noun:   a formal expression by a meeting; agreed to by a vote  verb:   make clearly visible  

5. Topic Education—key to learning the intricacies of the way energy policy is being constructed and organized—there are 2 parts of topic education, the agent and the object. Process CPs key to testing the inter-relationship. Otherwise, we only have abstracts. If FW debate, then internal link to the Joyner/Shaw evidence.

6. CP places conditions on the plan which create distinctions, if they win their interpretation it allows them to say roll back in the 2AC to get out of all our arguments which makes them a moving target, process CPs key on topics that are aff-biased.

Impact
Natural gas is key to prevent resource conflict, goes global and triggers all the 1AC impacts and more, outweighs and turns case—
Extinction—Worlds 3 greatest superpowers lauching their entire nuclear arsenals would destroy the planet ten times over, that’s Henderson
Specifically turns their manufacturing arguments
Hunt -12 (Gary Hunt is President, Scalable Growth Strategy Advisors, an independent energy technology and information services adviser and a partner in Tech and Creative Labs, 15 February 2012, How the US Shale Boom Will Change the World, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/How-the-US-Shale-Boom-Will-Change-the-World.html)
New Jobs Creation is driven by Low Cost Energy. A report from PricewaterhouseCoopers for
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prices to near record low levels from long term reliable domestic energy supply.
Increase natural gas exports solves economic downturn
Ratner, Parfomak and Luther -11 (Michael Ratner, Analyst in Energy Policy, Paul W. Parfomak, Specialist in Energy and Infrastructure Policy, Linda Luther, Analyst in Environmental Policy, U.S. Natural Gas Exports: New Opportunities, Uncertain Outcomes, CRS Service, November 4, 2011, http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/R42074_20111104.pdf)
Expectations about the economic impacts of greater U.S. natural gas exports depend
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more and more U.S. natural gas to overseas markets. 33
Also turns Economy—Nukes would devastate America’s biggest banks, the economy would be sent back to the stone age
Turns Warming
Moniz et al -11 (Ernest J, Chair, MIT Interdisciplinary Study, 6/09/2011, The Future of Natural Gas http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies/natural-gas-2011.shtml)
The findings and recommendations of the study are discussed later in this chapter, and
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form of liquid fuel may be the best pathway to significant market penetration.
Natural gas is critical to chemical and the steel industry.
Pooley -12 (ERIC POOLEY, Environmental Defense Fund,  AUGUST 10, 2012, Natural Gas – A Briefing Paper For Candidates, http://blogs.edf.org/energyexchange/2012/08/10/natural-gas-a-briefing-paper-for-candidates/)
While a majority of Americans remain unfamiliar with hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking,"
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sense of the potential for U.S. energy independence and energy security
Independently, the chemical industry is key to solving everything from disease to environmental collapse – prevents extinction
Baum, editor-in-chief of the American Chemical Society's Chemical and Engineering News 1999(Rudy M. Baum, CandE News, “Millennium Special Report,” 12-6-99, http://pubs.acs.org/hotartcl/cenear/991206/7749spintro2.html)
The pace of change in today's world is truly incomprehensible. Science is advancing on
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up in real public fear of genetic manipulation and corporate control over food.

Natural gas development incentives shifts towards democracy – economic pressures prove.
Hunt -12 (Gary Hunt is President, Scalable Growth Strategy Advisors, an independent energy technology and information services adviser and a partner in Tech and Creative Labs, 15 February 2012, How the US Shale Boom Will Change the World, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/How-the-US-Shale-Boom-Will-Change-the-World.html)
Taming the bad boys in the neighbourhood. As shale development potential is better understood
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behind in the wave of global economic growth proves too powerful to resist.

Democracy solves extinction.
Diamond -95 (Larry Diamond, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, December, PROMOTING DEMOCRACY IN THE 1990S,
1995, p. http://www.carnegie.org//sub/pubs/deadly/diam_rpt.html )
Nuclear, chemical and biological weapons continue to proliferate. The very source of life
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which a new world order of international security and prosperity can be built.

UQ
Natural gas prices are low now—Abundant supplies of low-cost shale gas has made natural gas more popular than ever, that’s Conrad
Prefer it—Inventories and massive supply
Hurdle 8/14/12 (Jon Hurdle, AOL Energy, August 14, 2012, What Is Set to Drive Natural Gas Prices Lower?, http://energy.aol.com/2012/08/14/what-is-set-to-drive-natural-gas-prices-lower/)
Prices for natural gas are headed lower after a hot summer showed signs of the
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seasonal increase at only 1,477 bcf, the lowest since 1991.
A2 – Prices ^ Inev
-Still says renewable will be more competitive than ever—proves the link
-This is just UQ for our AFF—Our evidence is 6 months newer, that’s when we found new natural gas, that’s Conard
-Even if prices do go up, it won’t happen for 20 years means there’s enough time for policy makers to come up with a solution
A2 – Low Prices Kills Industry
-Wrong—Low prices are key to the energy industry, Natural gas is bigger and better than ever
-If we win DA turns case then this is irrelevant
-Low prices now means the industry wouldn’t be able to prop itself up in the first place if this is true
A2 – Nat Gas Inev
-Gut check—It’s about LNG, not new found natural gas
-Not inevitable—There’s still a finite amount of natural gas, it’s just abundant now

Link
Extend the link—DOE report proves that with increases of wind production displaces natural gas, our evidence specifies it will reduce Natural gas by 50%, that’s Barber
Wind power kills natural gas generation.
Moniz et al -11 (Ernest J, Chair, MIT Interdisciplinary Study, 6/09/2011, The Future of Natural Gas http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies/natural-gas-2011.shtml)
As depicted in Panel 4.8b, when less wind is dispatched, the
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less-employed, single-cycle gas turbines and steam gas units.

Increased wind production tanks natural gas production – causes massive price volatility.
Moniz et al -11 (Ernest J, Chair, MIT Interdisciplinary Study, 6/09/2011, The Future of Natural Gas http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies/natural-gas-2011.shtml)
Although our analysis has been limited to a few alternative scenarios, we can observe
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of investment in natural gas generation capacity to ensure system reliability and efficiency.

Wind power drastically reduces natural gas use.
The Washington Times -01 (December 20, 2001, Windmill power; 'Breath of fresh air' for nation?, August Gribbin, Lexis)
Attempts to use windmill-powered generators to produce clean, renewable energy have been
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industry forecasters expect total installed capacity to triple over the next five years."
Solves warming cards
Increases shale gas solves emissions now.
Yang 8/8/12 (Catherine T. Yang, For National Geographic News, Published August 8, 2012, China Drills Into Shale Gas, Targeting Huge Reserves Amid Challenges, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/08/120808-china-shale-gas/)
Shale gas now makes up 25 percent of the U.S. natural gas
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trillion cubic meters) in estimated U.S. shale gas stores.
Low natural gas prices cause transition from coal.
Hunt -12 (Gary Hunt is President, Scalable Growth Strategy Advisors, an independent energy technology and information services adviser and a partner in Tech and Creative Labs, 15 February 2012, How the US Shale Boom Will Change the World, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/How-the-US-Shale-Boom-Will-Change-the-World.html)
Market Discipline of Fossil Fuels Weeds Out Coal in Favour of Cleaner Gas. After
AND
growth make gas the least cost, best fit in almost every region.

Shale natural gas solves air pollution and GHG emissions – it is a bridge.
Pooley -12 (ERIC POOLEY, Environmental Defense Fund,  AUGUST 10, 2012, Natural Gas – A Briefing Paper For Candidates, http://blogs.edf.org/energyexchange/2012/08/10/natural-gas-a-briefing-paper-for-candidates/)
Increased development of shale gas could yield substantial environmental and public health benefits while helping
AND
in combination with demand response and emerging large-scale energy storage technologies.
Natural gas use prevents acid rain and lowers GHG emissions.
Liang et al. -12 (Fang-Yu Liang * , Marta Ryvak, Sara Sayeed * , Nick Zhao, The role of natural gas as a primary fuel in the near future, including comparisons of acquisition, transmission and waste handling costs of as with competitive alternatives, Chemistry Central Journal 2012, 6(Suppl 1):S4 http://journal.chemistrycentral.com/content/6/S1/S4
Smog is formed by a chemical reaction of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile
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for scrubbers, and thus reducing the amount of sludge from industrial processes.

Solvency Frontline

MLP prevents effective renewable energy – only causes tax shelters.
Sherlock and Keightley -11 (Molly F. Sherlock, Analyst in Economics, Mark P. Keightley, Analyst in Public Finance, June 28, 2011, Master Limited Partnerships: A Policy Option for the Renewable Energy Industry, Congressional Research Service Report, http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/eyeonwashington/2011/documents/masterlmtdpartnerships.pdf)
Allowing renewable energy facilities to structure as MLPs, if enacted jointly with policies that
AND
credits could create opportunities for tax shelters like those seen in the 1980s.

MLPs can’t solve renewable energy development – do not aid the development of technology.
Sherlock and Keightley -11 (Molly F. Sherlock, Analyst in Economics, Mark P. Keightley, Analyst in Public Finance, June 28, 2011, Master Limited Partnerships: A Policy Option for the Renewable Energy Industry, Congressional Research Service Report, http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/eyeonwashington/2011/documents/masterlmtdpartnerships.pdf)
One final point of potential concern is that MLPs have typically been used to finance
AND
have moved beyond field testing but have not yet been deployed at scale.  

Companies won’t use MLPs – too complex.
Peacock -09 (Philip H. Peacock is an associate in the Corporate/Securities section of the Houston office of
Andrews Kurth LLP, MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIPS: AT THE CROSSROADS?, 6/4/2009, TEXAS JOURNAL OF OIL, GAS, AND ENERGY LAW, http://tjogel.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Recent_Developments_Final.pdf)
The first disadvantage of the MLP structure is its structural complexity. Common units,
AND
lest they find themselves on the wrong side of the qualifying income test.

MLP ineffective – companies can’t build capital
Peacock -09 (Philip H. Peacock is an associate in the Corporate/Securities section of the Houston office of
Andrews Kurth LLP, MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIPS: AT THE CROSSROADS?, 6/4/2009, TEXAS JOURNAL OF OIL, GAS, AND ENERGY LAW, http://tjogel.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Recent_Developments_Final.pdf)
A second disadvantage of MLPs is their relatively limited ability to accumulate cash. As noted above, MLPs contractually obligate themselves to distribute 100% of their available cash each quarter. As a result, MLPs cannot build up war chests like traditional corporations and are therefore highly dependent upon external sources of financing to fund their growth projects and acquisitions. 

MLPs can’t solve – investors won’t invest in them
Peacock -09 (Philip H. Peacock is an associate in the Corporate/Securities section of the Houston office of
Andrews Kurth LLP, MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIPS: AT THE CROSSROADS?, 6/4/2009, TEXAS JOURNAL OF OIL, GAS, AND ENERGY LAW, http://tjogel.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Recent_Developments_Final.pdf)
A third disadvantage of MLPs is the limited liquidity of their common units. MLP
AND
-oriented security—they generally are not expected to rapidly increase in value

—investors tend to buy and hold them rather than trading in and out of
AND
the outside capital that MLPs are dependent upon is to some extent eliminated. 

Investor practices prevent MLPs from working.
Peacock -09 (Philip H. Peacock is an associate in the Corporate/Securities section of the Houston office of
Andrews Kurth LLP, MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIPS: AT THE CROSSROADS?, 6/4/2009, TEXAS JOURNAL OF OIL, GAS, AND ENERGY LAW, http://tjogel.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Recent_Developments_Final.pdf)
Another disadvantage of MLPs that relates to the limited trading volume of their common units
AND
sellers to drive the price down when so many shares are changing hands.

Nuclear Terrorism Defense – Ext. 1 – No Risk
Zero risk of nuclear terrorism – Mearsheimer has several warrants
a. Rogue states have no interest in providing the weapons – they fear being blamed by the attack and the U.S. response
b. Even if terrorists acquired nukes – the weapons would be disassembled and they would need launch codes on top of transportation that would go undetected
c. The total number of Americans killed by international terrorists is the same killed by deer and peanut allergies – there is no existential impact
Terror threat overblown—greater likelihood of being hit by a comet
Mueller 5 (Political scientist in the field of international relations, John Mueller, “Is There Still a Terrorist Threat?” Nexis)
But while keeping such potential dangers in mind, it is worth remembering that the
AND
erected since 9/11 may be persecuting some, spying on many,
No chance of a terrorist attack
Mueller 11 (IR prof at Ohio State. PhD in pol sci from UCLA, John, The Truth about Al Qaeda, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68012/john-mueller/the-truth-about-al-qaeda?page=show)
As a misguided Turkish proverb holds, "If your enemy be an ant,
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3.5 million per year, even with 9/11 included.

2NC Wind Variability Stops CO2 Reductions
Emissions From Variability Cancel Out Reductions
Paul Willis 2012 June Wind Power’s CO2-Cutting Impact Disputed http://www.earthtechling.com/2012/06/wind-powers-co2-cutting-impact-disputed/
Inconsistency of supply is one of the biggest drawbacks of renewables such as wind and
AND
– a conclusion that the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) disputed.
Wind doesn’t solve emissions – any benefit is cancelled out by the cost of generation
Bryce, 10 (Robert, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, recently published his fourth book, "Power Hungry: The Myths of 'Green' Energy and the Real Fuels of the Future", “Wind Power Won't Cool Down the Planet”, 8/23/10, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703792704575366700528078676.html) WP
The wind industry has achieved remarkable growth largely due to the claim that it will
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emissions, "the reality is that it's not doing much of anything."

2NC Wind Power Increases Warming
CO2 Reductions Are Net Better Without Wind Integration
Leo Hickman 2012 January 9 Are wind turbines increasing carbon emissions? http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2012/jan/09/wind-turbines-increasing-carbon-emissions
A new report published on Monday by Civitas, a social policy thinktank that promotes
AND
, when compared to electricity generation with modern high-efficiency gas turbines.
2NC Cant Solve Global Emissions
Cant Offset Global CO2 Emissions
Post, 11 (Willem, SME New Jersey Institute of Technology, MSME Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, MBA, University of Connecticut. P.E. Connecticut. Consulting Engineer and Project Manager, “Wind Energy Does Little to Reduce CO2 Emissions”, 9/8/11, http://theenergycollective.com/node/64492) WP
Within federal, state and local governments tens of thousands of people are busying themselves promoting renewables by with holding meetings and public hearings, preparing studies, writing reports, energy plans, laws, rules and regulations, monitoring projects for compliance, etc.¶ Outside of government wind turbine vendors (Siemens, GE, Vestas, Iberdrola, etc,), project developers/owners, financiers managing tax shelters, trade organizations, etc., are busying themselves popularizing wind energy as saving the planet from global warming with PR campaigns that claim there would be significant reductions of fossil fuel consumption and CO2 reductions/kWh, that capital costs/MW would decrease, and that wind energy costs/kWh would be at grid parity in the near future. These claims have largely not been realized. ¶ Global Warming is a Given: A just-released report from EIA shows the actual world energy consumption data and projected consumption data for the 1990 to 2035 period. The report shows world energy consumption is estimated to increase from 505 quads in 2008 to 770 quads in 2035, a 52% increase. The biggest part of the increase is by (non-OECD nations + Asia).¶ http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/world.cfm¶ See spreadsheet associated with figure 12¶ World energy consumption by fuel (quadrillion Btu) ¶ Liquids: From 173.2 in 2010 to 225.1 in 2035; 30% more¶ Natural gas: 116.7 to 174.7; 50% more¶ Coal: 149.4 to 209.1; 49% more¶ Nuclear: 27.6 to 51.2; 86% more¶ Renewables: 55.2 to 109.5; 98% more¶ Renewables fraction of total consumption: From 10.6% in 2010 to 15.2% in 2035¶ Fossil fraction of total consumption: 84.1% to 79.1%¶ The significant increase in projected fossil fuel consumption during the next 24 years means global warming will continue unabated, because (non-OECD + ASIA) will have energy consumption growth far outpacing the energy consumption growth of the rest of the world; i.e., global warming is a given. ¶ The above indicates the enormous investments required to achieve the 2035 projected renewables energy production would have practically no benefit regarding global warming.¶ This means policy makers should shift renewables subsidies to energy efficiency which will not only reduce CO2 without controversies, but will actually do some good for household and business energy bills and thereby raise their living standards and profits.¶ That would be the rational thing to do. However, using Greenspan's words, the people, including legislators and bureaucrats, have become "irrationally exuberant" regarding renewables reducing global warming. The above shows, it is an expensive and futile tilting at wind mills a la Don Quixote.¶
Grid 1NC Frontline
Grid Problems Make Scalability Impossible
NYT August 27, 2008 Wind Energy Bumps Into Power Grid’s Limits By Matthew L. Wald
When the builders of the Maple Ridge Wind farm spent $320 million to put
AND
to move that electricity from there to the load centers,” he said.
Means You Cant Solve
Ian Hoffman, University of California, Berkeley et al 2009 Redefining  What’s Possible  for Clean Energy  by 2020 JuNE 2009 http://www.gigatonthrowdown.org/wind.php other authors: Alexia Byrne, University of California, Berkeley and Dan Kammen, Professor, Director, Renewable and Appropriate  Energy Lab, University of California, Berkeley
Regardless of policy support on the supply or demand side, wind power is unlikely
AND
carbon pricing, hold significant promise for large-scale carbon emissions abatement.
Upfront Costs Deter Large scale Investment
Tverberg, 12 (Gail, received a M.S. in Mathematics from the University of Illinois, Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries, Much of her early career was spent with CNA Insurance Companies in Chicago, Illinois. There she was involved in both pricing and reserving of casualty insurance coverages, “The Six Obstacles Facing US Wind Energy”, The Oil Drum, 1/19/12, lexis) WP
Obstacle 5: A high proportion of funding for wind energy is up front.¶
AND
in projects that require large front-end funding, like wind turbines.

And That Increases Pressure on the Grid – Makes Blackouts Likely
NYT August 27, 2008 Wind Energy Bumps Into Power Grid’s Limits By Matthew L. Wald
The basic problem is that many transmission lines, and the connections between them,
AND
pay fees for the privilege of continuing to pump power into the lines.¶
That Will Cause Reactor Meltdowns – Nuclear Plants Cant Deal With Outages
Associated Press 2011  By Dina Cappiello   03/29/11 “Long Blackouts Pose Risk To U.S. Nuclear Reactors” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/29/blackout-risk-us-nuclear-reactors_n_841869.html
WASHINGTON -- Long before the nuclear emergency in Japan, U.S. regulators
AND
S. power plants are as prepared as they could and should be.
Reactor meltdowns obliterate the planet
Wasserman ’02 (Harvey, Senior Editor – Free Press, Earth Island Journal, Spring, www.earthisland.org/eijournal/new_articles.cfm?articleID=457andjournalID=63)
The intense radioactive heat within today's operating reactors is the hottest anywhere on the planet
AND
core of our life and of all future generations must be shut down.   

1NC Frontline
Wind doesn’t solve energy independence
Tverberg, 12 (Gail, received a M.S. in Mathematics from the University of Illinois, Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries, Much of her early career was spent with CNA Insurance Companies in Chicago, Illinois. There she was involved in both pricing and reserving of casualty insurance coverages, “The Six Obstacles Facing US Wind Energy”, The Oil Drum, 1/19/12, lexis) WP
If transitions to new energy sources and new technologies could be made cheaply and quickly
AND
capital to tackle all the problems that need to be tackled at once.
Wind won’t phase out fossil fuels – it relies on them for backup
Martin, 10 (Elib, Crimson editorial writer, lives in Lowell House, “Wind Farms: Not So Green”, 8/10/10, http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2010/9/10/wind-energy-power-farms) WP
At first—or even second and third—glance, wind farms appear to
AND
. Wind farms are simply not what they are cracked up to be.
Low Nat Gas Prices Means No Market For Wind – Makes Transition Impossible
Jen Alic is a geopolitical analyst, co-founder of ISA Intel in Sarajevo and Tel Aviv, and the former editor-in-chief of ISN Security Watch in Zurich. 2012 August 19 We are Decades Away from a Cure for our Fossil Fuel Addiction http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/We-are-Decades-Away-from-a-Cure-for-our-Fossil-Fuel-Addiction.html
With natural gas prices low and supplies high, we are decades away from being
AND
is also impossible to convince the average consumer to go along with this. 

1NC
Off
SQ will decrease emissions by 80% by 2050- maintaining the transition key to solve warming and avoid peak oil impacts
Lovins 2012 (Amory, physicist, environmental scientist, writer, and Chairman/Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, Oxford MA, A Farewell to Fossil Fuels: Answering the Energy Challenge, Foreign Affairs, March/April, proquest)
Weaning the United States from those fossil fuels would require two big shifts: in
AND
last, Americans could make energy do their work without working their undoing.
Nuke power trades off with renewables, jacks short-term transition key to solve warming and peak fossil fuel
Conolley 2011 (Heather, PhD Candidate in Political Science at UC- Santa Barbara, The Renaissance of Nuclear Energy in the Shadow of Climate Change, PhD Dissertation, proquest)
Given the long lead time associated with development and reactor ¶ construction, nuclear opponents
AND
). Thus opportunity costs for constructing nuclear reactors must be ¶ carefully considered.
Extinction
Tickell ‘8 (Oliver, Climate Researcher, “On a Planet 4C Hotter, All We Can Prepare for is Extinction,” The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)
We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming, Bob Watson told
AND
warming caused by human emissions could propel us towards a similar hothouse Earth. 

Off
Obama will win- most recent polls and momentum are on his side
Silver 9/28/2012 (Nate, Genius, writer for FiveThirtyEight, now under the New York Times, The blog is devoted to rigorous analysis of politics, polling, public affairs, sports, science and culture, largely through statistical means, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/28/sept-27-the-impact-of-the-47-percent/)
Thursday’s Polls¶ What we can say with more confidence is that Mr. Romney
AND
Nov. 6 forecast, up from 81.9 percent on Wednesday.
Nuclear Power is unpopular – funding, transitions from other issues, and tradeoffs

US News, 2009 Nov 30th, Democrats Change Tune on Nuclear Energy, http://www.usnews.com/news/energy/articles/2009/11/30/democrats-change-tune-on-nuclear-energy

This calculation is outraging many of the administration's environmental-minded supporters, who say
AND
someone's gain will most likely be someone else's loss in the energy world.

Base Mobilization key to winning the election—empirically proven for incumbents
WSJ 5/22 (The Wall Street Journal “As in 2004, energizing the base a key to victory” 5/22/12 http://www.myfoxdfw.com/story/18583004/as-in-2004-energizing-the-base-a-key-to-victory#ixzz1MekSBwU) KY
President Barack Obama does not often dwell on similarities to his predecessor, George W
AND
But 2004 suggests that both sides' strategies may start with mobilizing the core.
Obama win key to US-Russia relations – Romney’s agenda is belligerent and controversial.
Reichardt 7/9. (Adam is the Managing Editor of New Eastern Europe, “Considering Russia in the Voting Booth,” New Eastern Europe, 2012, http://www.neweasterneurope.eu/node/382)

Obama’s policy towards Russia is easier to gauge, since there has already been four years of his administration to judge. As Ross Wilson noted, “President Obama has a four-year record with Russia to defend – i.e., the reset policy and the benefits that the administration will argue have accrued from its more pragmatic and less confrontational approach to relations with Moscow.”
President Obama’s policy of reset was indeed a glimmer of hope for US-Russian relations at the start of 2009, but that glimmer has all but faded. The case of Syria and Iran are clear examples of the real challenges America still faces when engaging with Russia on global issues and the Obama campaign will most likely avoid referring to the “reset” by name.
“Though the Administration will not use the expression ‘reset’ too much, it can be expected to continue to emphasize pragmatism and to implement that line if the president is re-elected,” Wilson believes.
Obama’s opponent, Mitt Romney, has been less clear about his position on relations
AND
no Cold War, but Russia is a geopolitical foe in that regard."
The Romney campaign’s web site reveals several areas of focus for Russia, none of them discuss active engagement, but rather focus on taking tougher stances with Russia, including renegotiating the New Start Treaty, decreasing Europe’s energy reliance on Russia, building stronger relations with Central Asia, as well as supporting Russia’s civil society.
Surprisingly, the last one, engaging Russia’s civil society, could be the most
AND
in the opposition – it could hurt the entire goal of this platform.
Having the American government play an active role in the changes happening inside Russia could be detrimental to US-Russian relations. Many Russians believe that changes within their own country should be driven from the Russian society. Any outside interference would hurt the legitimacy of the Russian opposition and cause the Russian elite to become even more suspicious, and perhaps even hostile, to the intentions of American foreign policy.

Extinction
Collins and Rojansky 10 – * U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation from 1997 to 2001, AND deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment (8/18/10, James F. Collins, Matthew Rojansky, Foreign Policy, “Why Russia Matters,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=viewandid=41409,)
A year and a half after Barack Obama hit the "reset" button with
AND
to maintain relations with Russia. And good relations would be even better.

Off
The United States federal government should conduct a binding regulatory negotiation over the substance, implementation and enforcement of removing all restrictions to the formation of a thorium bank in the United State.
The CP accelerates energy development and overcomes bureaucratic issues
Lemaire Professor at University College London Energy Institute ’12 (Xavier, “SERN,” http://www.reeep.org/830/sern.htm, Mike)
The Sustainable Energy AND energy efficiency experts.
The aff gets watered down by lack of unified energy policy, resistance from fossil fuel industries, and citizen opposition – the CP is key to avoid politics
Nolon Director of Land Use Law Center at Pace University Law School ’11 (Sean, “Negotiating the Wind: A Framework to Engage Citizens in Siting Wind Turbines,” Cardozo Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 12 no. 2, accessible online via http://cojcr.org/vol12no2/327-372.pdf, Mike)
The need for more renewable sources of energy is unequivocal and the call can be
AND
, provides for decommissioning, and enables siting negotiations at the local level.

Prolif

    Accidents Turn—
    a. Nuclear power is decisively on the decline – Fukushima, costs, and delays
    Roney 12 (J. Matthew, president of Earth Policy Institute, 5/22, “Fukushima Meltdown Hastens Decline of Nuclear Power” Earth Policy Institute, http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2012/update103)
    On May 5, 2012, Japan shut down its Tomari 3 nuclear reactor on
    AND
    Russia, and Japan—could meet their electricity needs with wind alone.

b. Expansion of nuclear power makes accidents more likely—Reactors designs and fuel types are irrelevant
Ramana 11 (MV, With the Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton University and is on the Coordinating Committee of the Coalition for Nuclear Disarmament and Peace, 11 Costs, risks, and myths of nuclear power, “No escape from accidents,” http://www.nirs.org/international/reachingcriticalwillreport.pdf)
In the aftermath of Fukushima and, twenty five years earlier, Chernobyl, it
AND
, though, our experience is too limited to make any reliable predictions.
c. Extinction
Lendman 11 – Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (Stephen, 03/ 13, “Nuclear Meltdown in Japan,” http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2011/03/13/nuclear-meltdown-in-japan)
Reuters said the 1995 Kobe quake caused $100 billion in damage, up to
AND
potentially millions under a worse case scenario, including far outside East Asia.
d. New tech doesn’t solve – meltdowns can only be prevented in good circumstances, not in a natural disaster or terrorist attack
Biello, 12 (David, award-winning online associate editor for environment and energy reporting on the environment and energy since 1999, “How Safe Are U.S. Nuclear Reactors? Lessons from Fukushima”, 3/9/12, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=how-safe-are-old-nuclear-reactors-lessons-from-fukushimaandprint=true) WP

The U.S. nuclear industry, for its part, is suggesting that
AND
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, water remains the key to nuclear safety.
2. Increased nuclear use leads to more unchecked prolif
Tickell, 12 (Oliver, leading campaigner and researcher on climate issues and has contributed pieces to a number of major international media outlets, “Renewable Revolution or Nuclear Nightmare?”, 7/13/12, http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/1482669/renewable_revolution_or_nuclear_nightmare.html) WP
For a start, it would be much more radioactive than it is now.
AND
just 160 Mtoe, a mere 1.5% of primary energy.

3. Thorium doesn’t solve risk of prolif – produces even more bomb-making material
Makhijani and Boyd, 9 (Arjun, President of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, holds a Ph.D. in engineering (specialization: nuclear fusion) from the University of California at Berkeley, and Michele, former director of the Safe Energy Program at Physicians for Social Responsibility, Staff Scientist at the Institute for IEER, “Thorium Fuel: No Panacea for Nuclear Power”, July 2009, http://ieer.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/thorium2009factsheet.pdf) WP

Not a Proliferation Solution¶ Thorium is not actually a “fuel” because it
AND
reprocessing ¶ would offer the same temptation to reprocess as today’s once-through
4. Uranium-238 converts to uranium-233- which can be used to produce atomic weapons
Chris Rhodes Contributor 2/29/2012 @ 1:07PM |11,051 views Thorium Nuclear Power -- A Lesson From Norway http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2012/02/29/thorium-nuclear-power-a-lesson-from-norway/
Indeed, the 99+% of uranium-238 can be converted into plutonium-
AND
which is principally an alpha-particle emitter and far more readily hidden.

5. Proliferation will be slow
Waltz 00 (Kenneth Waltz, Professor of Political Science at UC Berkeley, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, v1 n1, Winter/Spring 2000)
It is now estimated that about twenty–five countries are in a position to
AND
, in which one or two states per decade gradually develop nuclear weapons.
6. No domino effect – it’s empirically denied
Bergenas 10 (Research Associate at the Henry L. Stimson Center, Johan, “The Nuclear Domino Myth”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66738/johan-bergenas/the-nuclear-domino-myth)
But there's one problem with this "nuclear domino" scenario: the historical record
AND
was there even a two-country nuclear arms race in the region.

Space
Turn – Weaponization
Plan perceived as and leads to weaponization breaking the OST
Grossman 00 – professor of journalism at the State University of New York College at Old Westbury Keep Space for Peace Presentation at Atioch College March 14, 2000 By Karl Grossman http://www.space4peace.org/articles/keepsforp.htm
We only have a narrow window to prevent an arms race in space. The
AND
that "states shall be liable for damage caused by their space objects." 

Impacts – the perception of US space dominance leads to preemption and kills treaty credibility – leads to unchecked escalation

Hitchens 8 – president of the Center for Defense Information (Theresa, “Space Wars - Coming to the Sky Near You?”, Scientific American, February, http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=space-wars-coming-to-the-sky-near-you)

Perhaps of even greater concern is that several other nations, including one of China’s
AND
lasted half a century. The likely alternative would be unacceptable to all.

Space War leads to Extinction – accidents, miscalculation, and nuclear retaliation

Mitchell et al 1 -Associate Professor of Communication and Director of Debate at the University of Pittsburgh (Dr. Gordon, ISIS Briefing on Ballistic Missile Defence, “Missile Defence:  Trans-Atlantic Diplomacy at a Crossroads”, No. 6 July, http://www.isisuk.demon.co.uk/0811/isis/uk/bmd/no6.html)

A buildup of space weapons might begin with noble intentions of 'peace through strength' deterrence
AND
space could plunge the world into the most destructive military conflict ever seen.

Space colonization is impossible – costly, inhospitable, and unnecessary
Stross 07—technical author; freelance journalist; author of The Web Architect’s Handbook; specializes in space opera and hard science fiction characterized by an emphasis on scientific or technical detail and scientific accuracy
Charles, “The High Frontier, Redux,” June 16, http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2007/06/the_high_frontier_redux.html
Optimistic projects suggest that it should be possible, with the low cost rockets currently
AND
kind of human being who can thrive in an airless, inhospitable environment.

Space exploration will cause superdiseases – Earth bacteria rapidly mutate – kills any explorers
O’Neill 2008
Ian, “Germs Living In Space,” March 11th, Universe Today, http://www.universetoday.com/2008/03/11/germs-living-in-space-almost-three-times-as-likely-to-cause-disease/
In one experiment on board Space Shuttle Endeavor (STS-123) launched early
AND
the otherwise benign Staphylococcus genus which has mutated to resist commonly used antibiotics.

Solvency

    No nuclear renaissance—Laundry list of barriers
    Slocum 12 (Tyson Slocum dir. Public Citizen’s Energy Program, 2-13-2012, "NRC Approval Doesn’t Signal Much," National Journal, http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/02/is-america-poised-for-nuclear.php)
    The Nuclear Regulatory AND renewable technologies.
    2. Nuclear expansion impossible – laundry list of supply and sitting constraints
    Zyga 11 (Lisa “Why nuclear power will never supply the world’s energy needs,” PhysOrg, http://phys.org/news/2011-05-nuclear-power-world-energy.html
    The 440 commercial nuclear reactors in use worldwide are currently helping to minimize our consumption
    AND
    reactors, even though commercial fusion is still likely a long way off.
    3. Terror Turn—
    a. Nuke plants are vulnerable to terrorism – they fail safety tests and a successful attack doesn’t even require technical knowledge
    Stone, 11 (Daniel, senior political reporter @ Newsweek, “Flirting With Disaster;
    Every few years the defenses of the nation's nuclear plants are tested. What's scary is how often they fail”, 1/17/11, SCIENCE; Pg. 38 Vol. 157 No. 03 ISSN: 0028-9604, lexis) WP
    In early 2009 a team of terrorists managed to enter a nuclear-power plant
    AND
    would cause it to self-ignite and spread radiation through the air.¶
    b. Extinction and their defense won’t apply
    Ayson 10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions, InformaWorld)
    But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear attack and a
    AND
    consultation from Washington that the latter found itself unable or unwilling to provide.
    4. The US literally CAN’T build more nuke plants- no workers or staff, can’t get the materials
    Mez 2012 (Dr. Lutz, Coordinator of the Berlin Centre for Caspian Region Studies at the Free University of Berlin, Nuclear energy–Any solution for sustainability and climate protection?, Energy Policy, Volume 48, September 2012, Pages 56–63, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.047)
    7. Problems faced by the nuclear industry¶ The nuclear industry has been battling
    AND
    been closed must be torn down and solutions finally found for nuclear waste.
    5. Even if they can get the materials- the costs and uncertainty are so high the plan won’t matter
    Fahring 2011 (TL, 2011 graduate from the University of Texas School of Law. He is currently a law clerk at the Texas Eleventh Court of Appeals. He is interested in energy law, environmental law, and tax law, III. Causes of Uncertainty in U.S. Nuclear Construction, NOTE: Nuclear Uncertainty: A Look at the Uncertainties of a U.S. Nuclear Renaissance, 41 Tex. Envtl. L.J. 279, lexis)
    C. Increasing Costs of Materials, Labor, and Capital¶ ¶ The rising
    AND
    high for even federal legislation providing loan guarantees to overcome." n162
    6. Thorium reactors don’t solve – not commercially viable, produces more waste, and technically inefficient
    Rees, 11 (Eifion, staff @ The Ecologist, “Don't believe the spin on thorium being a greener nuclear option”, 6/23/11, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/23/thorium-nuclear-uranium) WP 

In his reading, thorium is merely a way of deflecting attention and criticism from
AND
players is interested. Thorium reactors are no more than a distraction.'

7. Thorium makes the waste problem worse – decays far slower and more dangerous
Makhijani and Boyd, 9 (Arjun, President of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, holds a Ph.D. in engineering (specialization: nuclear fusion) from the University of California at Berkeley, and Michele, former director of the Safe Energy Program at Physicians for Social Responsibility, Staff Scientist at the Institute for IEER, “Thorium Fuel: No Panacea for Nuclear Power”, July 2009, http://ieer.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/thorium2009factsheet.pdf) WP

Not a Waste Solution¶ Proponents claim that thorium fuel significantly reduces the volume,
AND
hazardous non-radioactive ¶ metals in both thorium and uranium mill tailings.

Block
A2: Perm Do Both

    Hold them to the text of the permutation in the 2AC – 1AR clarifications of what this means are sandbagging and a voting issue because we don’t get to actually answer the substance of the argument until the 2NR
    2. Prior and binding key – otherwise the public won’t participate and links to politics – means no solvency
    Lindstrom and Nie 97 – Research Consultants for the Arizona Department of Transportation
    Matthew and Martin, “HOW DO YOU COLLECT AND USE PUBLIC INFORMATION IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PLANS AND PROGRAMS?,” ADOT, REPORT NUMBER:  FHWA-AZ97-452, http://www.azdot.gov/TPD/ATRC/publications/project_reports/PDF/AZ452.pdf
    In an ideal world, public participation would run throughout the project or policy in
    AND
    input becomes a case of too little, too late. 13
    3. Failure to take fully consider public views tank the whole project
    Lindstrom and Nie 97 – Research Consultants for the Arizona Department of Transportation
    Matthew and Martin, “HOW DO YOU COLLECT AND USE PUBLIC INFORMATION IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PLANS AND PROGRAMS?,” ADOT, REPORT NUMBER:  FHWA-AZ97-452, http://www.azdot.gov/TPD/ATRC/publications/project_reports/PDF/AZ452.pdf
    Citizen opposition to transportation projects is often explained as being fueled by a fundamental sense
    AND
    issue first and foremost lest the complete process loses all meaning and dignity.
     4. ZERO risk of a net benefit to the permutation – only a risk of NIMBY backlash – perm has to have a net benefit or theoretical justification to be legitimate otherwise the aff can make them endlessly without explanation or warrant – hypotesting died out in the 80’s

A2: Perm Do the CP

    The perm is functional severance – the CP never mandates the plan happens – it’s a completely different action, ALL of which ALWAYS happens – reg-negs are not resolved because they allow invited parties to amend or nullify the affs reduction on regulations – that’s a voting issue for fairness and education because it destroys all neg ground
    A2: Reg Neg Takes a Long Time
    Reg Neg is comparatively faster – litigation issues with the environment alone take years to overcome – public backlash to the plan delays any of their internal links and not the CP because it engages the public at the beginning of the process – that’s Nolon
    This means the CP happens faster than the aff*
    Siegel 10 (Joseph A., Senior Attorney for the EPA, Pace Environmental Law Review, “/collaborative Decision Making on Climate Change in the Federal Government”, L/X) CC
    Collaborative decision making can provide a forum for broad participation by multiple stakeholders, facilitate
    AND
    and more likely to be implemented than decisions made via traditional processes. n20

2. Independently, public participation in rule-making speeds the process up
Peyser 5 – MS in City Planning @ MIT
Jennifer, “How Does Participation in the Framing, Review, and Incorporation of Scientific Information Affect Stakeholder Perspectives on Resource Management Decisions?,” http://web.mit.edu/dusp/epp/music/pdf/jpeyser.thesis.FINAL.pdf
In implementing the agreement, the group should also consider how the decision’s efficacy will
AND
solutions through increased participation and inclusion of different perspectives and sources of knowledge.
3. The process of the counterplan avoids delay – but the plan doesn’t
Peyser 5 – MS in City Planning @ MIT
Jennifer, “How Does Participation in the Framing, Review, and Incorporation of Scientific Information Affect Stakeholder Perspectives on Resource Management Decisions?,” http://web.mit.edu/dusp/epp/music/pdf/jpeyser.thesis.FINAL.pdf
Consensus-based approaches have been used to address some of the inadequacies of NEPA
AND
have ignored or taken for granted the questions of scientific and technical information.
A2: This is about NEPA
True, but it is about focus groups who get mad about lack of federal involvement that are environmental issues
4. This also massively mitigates solvency – the long-term time and cost of public battles is what batters energy development – the CP ensures pragmatic policy decisions
Harter 97 – Professor @ Vermont Law School
Philip J., Visiting Associate Prof and Dir, Program on Consensus, Democracy, and Governance, Vermont Law School, Duke Law Journal, April
The most well developed of these techniques, other than the public hearings and meetings
AND
was one of the aspects of the process they considered most valuable. 48
5. The plan takes three years
Siobhan Mee, Executive Director of the Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review, Fall, 1997
(25 B.C. Envtl. Aff. L. Rev. 213)
Another criticism of traditional rulemaking is that it is slow and cumbersome. 14 Major rules require an average of three and one-half years for their creation and promulgation. 15 A subsequent court challenge, which EPA estimates to be an eighty-five percent possibility for each of its regulations, may delay the implementation of a rule even further. 16

2. Textual severance – We don’t need to compete on certainty but they have to defend it- “should” requires immediacy and certainty
Summer, ’94 (Justice, Oklahoma Supreme Court, http://www.oscn.net/applications/oscn/DeliverDocument.asp?CiteID=20287#marker3fn14)
The legal question to be resolved by the court is whether the word "should
AND
. 336, 337, 27 L.Ed. 201 (1882).  

Insert Reg-Neg Good block

Theory – CP Legitimate
Our interpretation – counterplans that recommend plan but don’t fiat passage are good – counterplans that contingently fiat passage are bad- solves their offense by eliminating CPs like consult and QPQ
Allowing Reg-Neg CPs is good- key to check a large topic with no unifying themes between the 6 energies and two mechanisms, key to access the lit base on rhetorical commitment versus material action, gives the aff built-in solvency deficit ground by saying the plan wouldn’t be implemented
Grounded in the literature – there is a widespread push to include energy policy in regulatory negotiations
Diamond 11 (Michael, Ohio State University College of Law, Ohio State Journal on Dispute Resolution, “’Energized Negotiations’: Mediated Disputes over the Siting of Interstate Electric Transmission Lines”, L/X) CC
A Department of Energy-commissioned study of the national electric grid described the public
AND
satisfaction from participants in both the procedure and results of collaborative rulemaking. n231
There are advocates for individual energies – proves the CP is entirely researchable
Nolon Director of Land Use Law Center at Pace University Law School ’11 (Sean, “Negotiating the Wind: A Framework to Engage Citizens in Siting Wind Turbines,” Cardozo Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 12 no. 2, accessible online via http://cojcr.org/vol12no2/327-372.pdf, Mike)
The benefits of reg-neg include greater access to key information, ability to
AND
That same open access to information can be used in wind siting negotiations.
Net Benefits don’t check – the aff fiats through implementation – it’s the only way we can actually engage the solvency of the aff

Case
Thorium doesn’t solve risk of prolif – produces even more bomb-making material
Makhijani and Boyd, 9 (Arjun, President of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, holds a Ph.D. in engineering (specialization: nuclear fusion) from the University of California at Berkeley, and Michele, former director of the Safe Energy Program at Physicians for Social Responsibility, Staff Scientist at the Institute for IEER, “Thorium Fuel: No Panacea for Nuclear Power”, July 2009, http://ieer.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/thorium2009factsheet.pdf) WP

Not a Proliferation Solution¶ Thorium is not actually a “fuel” because it
AND
the same temptation to reprocess as today’s once-through uranium fuel cycles.

Reprocessing increases the risk of nuclear terrorism – you make the waste stealable  
UCSUSA, 2011 April 5th, Union of concerned scientists, Nuclear Reprocessing: Dangerous, Dirty, and Expensive, http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_risk/nuclear_proliferation_and_terrorism/nuclear-reprocessing.html
While some supporters of a U.S. reprocessing program believe it would help
AND
of this material that it has proven impossible to keep track of it accurate

ely in a timely manner, making it feasible that the theft of enough plutonium
AND
than 500 metric tons.¶ Reprocessing would increase the ease of nuclear proliferation.

Any form of nuclear will drastically increase the risk of successful proliferation
Diesendorf, 2011 Spring, Demystification of Nuclear Energy, Mark Diesendorf is an Australian academic and environmentalist, known for his work in promoting environmentally sustainable practices in industry. He currently teaches Environmental Studies at the University of New South Wales, Australia. http://www.ies.unsw.edu.au/docs/DemystificationNuclearEnergyMD.pdf
Neutrons are also released, which can split more uranium-235, which releases
AND
successfully tested nuclear bombs based on reactor-grade plutonium. (Roberts,
undated)
2NC Overview

The disad outweighs and turns the case – 

A) Key timeframe distinction – link timeframe outweighs impact timeframe – the 1NC Hitchens evidence indicates that other nations will preempt US tech if they think the US is trying to pursue space dominance – means only the disad can turn the case

B) Magnitude – the Mitchell evidence indicates that space preemption would spill over to land wars – other nations would perceive the threat and attack with nuclear or biological weapons in the midst of crisis

C) Probability – Mitchell indicates that space warfare can be triggered by tech accidents and miscalculation – means intervening actors can’t check

  Turns the case – preemption causes debris and prevents solvency

Forden 8 - Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Geoffrey, Astropolitics, 6:138–153, “VIEWPOINT: CHINA AND SPACE WAR,” Ebsco Political Science)

If the short-term military consequences to the U.S. were not
AND
of collisions that renders space unusable from hundreds to thousands of years.14

  Here’s an external impact – the perception of weaponization causes war with Russia and China and leads to ground attacks

Hitchens 2 (Theresa, Center for Defense Information Vice President, http://www.cdi.org/missile-defense/spaceweapons.cfm, 4-18-02, “Weapons in Space: Silver Bullet or Russian Roulette? The Policy Implications of U.S. Pursuit of Space-Based Weapons”)

Could a Space Race Undercut U.S. Military Dominance? The United States
AND
strategic and direct military risks, and the costs, of weaponizing space.

  War with Russia is the only existential risk

Bostrum 02 – professor of philosophy at Oxford (March, Nick, “Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards,” Journal of Evolution and Technology, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html)

A much greater existential risk emerged with the build-up of nuclear arsenals in
AND
preludes to the existential risks that we will encounter in the 21st century.

Prolif Module

  The perceptions of US space dominance leads to prolif and kills international norms

Katz-Hyman 10 (Michael Katz-Hyman and Michael Krepon, Katz is a research assistant at Stimson and Krepon is the co-founder of Stimson, and director of the South Asia and Space Security programs. Space Weapons and Proliferation, The Stimson Institute. 12/17/10. NP. http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/Space_Weapons_and_Proliferation.pdf DM) 

We argue that additional proliferation of nuclear weapons, rather than new arms races,
AND
, and  hedging strategies against a more worrisome future are likely to multiply.   

  Prolif dramatically increases the risk of accidental, intentional, or terror-based nuclear war

Utgoff 2 - Deputy Director of Strategy, Forces, and Resources @ the Institute for Defense Analyses (Victor, Survival, “Proliferation, Missile Defense and American Ambitions”, 44:2, Summer, p. 87-90)

Many readers are probably willing to accept that nuclear proliferation is such a grave threat
AND
a hill to bury the bodies of dead cities or even whole nations.  

Economy Module

  Loss of satellites would destroy the global economy – communications and banking

Donahue, 10 – USAF Major (Jack, “CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON: A SCENARIO-BASED FUTURE EFFECT OF ORBITAL SPACE DEBRIS,” https://www.afresearch.org/skins/rims/q_mod_be0e99f3-fc56-4ccb-8dfe-670c0822a153/q_act_downloadpaper/q_obj_af691818-359f-4999-be24-f88ca154bd94/display.aspx?rs=enginespage)

So what would it be like living in any of these scenarios? The world
AND
advanced warning of a launched nuclear attack against the US or its allies.

  Economic Collapse leads to aggression and nuclear war - empirically

O’Donnell, 09 (2/26/09, Sean, “Will this recession lead to World War III?” http://www.examiner.com/x-3108-Baltimore-Republican-Examiner~y2009m2d26-Will-this-recession-lead-to-World-War-III, JMP)

Could the current economic crisis affecting this country and the world lead to another world
AND
possibility of World War III is averted. However sometimes history repeats itself. 

Warming
The rest of the world is transitioning- even China will cap emissions
Lovins 2012 (Amory, physicist, environmental scientist, writer, and Chairman/Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, Oxford MA, A Farewell to Fossil Fuels: Answering the Energy Challenge, Foreign Affairs, March/April, proquest)
The United States cannot afford to keep waiting for a gridlocked Congress to act while
AND
States'. No treaty compelled Beijing's leadership-just enlightened self-interest.
Global oil demand decreasing, efficiency and clean tech increasing now
Maugeri 2012 (Leonardo, Research Fellow of the Geopolitics of Energy Project at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Oil: The Next Revolution, June, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Oil-%20The%20Next%20Revolution.pdf)
Of course, it is possible that sometime in this decade a resurgence of demand
AND
dissemination of energy alternatives will reduce the impact of oil in global economies.

Thorium, not renewable, is the best way to fight climate change -  renewable can’t match nuclear’s energy output
New Scientist, 2011 March 26th, “Rescuing Nuclear Power” Vol. 209 Issue 2805, Lexis, V. Guevara
For some, nuclear energy, in particular thorium, is the best way to
AND
flammable. If solid rods catch fire they release plumes of radioactive smoke.

Impact O/V
DA outweighs and turns the case—Relations are key to arms reduction—Russian launch destroys the U.S. within thirty minutes and escalates into every impact in the book. The two largest nuclear arsenals in the world simultaneously exploding causes waves of diseases and firestorms destroying support systems—they do not have an impact of greater magnitude

Shortest time-frame
Mintz 1 (Morton, February 26, “Two Minutes to Launch,” The American Prospect, http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=two_minutes_to_launch)
Hair-trigger alert means this: The missiles carrying those warheads are armed and
AND
would be, basically, a nuclear war by checklist, by rote."
Conflict turns the case—Nuclear conflict makes developing nuclear plants impossible—They’d be destroyed before construction would even be completed
Relations solves prolif—Relations means they can continue arms reduction talks, that’s Collins and Rjonski
Relations solve space—Two faster countries to get to space working together means they can get to space—Remember Sputnik and Apollo

Obama win results in the AFF
Roy 8/28/12 (Manik Roy, The Vice President for Strategic Outreach for the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, The Forecast: Partly Clear, Partly Hazy, AUGUST 28, 2012, http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/sizing-up-romney-and-obama-ene.php)
We recently published a nonpartisan voter guide on the candidates' records and statements on climate
AND
, including the wind production tax credit, and also for continued research.
Tensions are still high and so is risk of conflict
Ron Rosenbaum, graduated from Yale University in and won a Carnegie Fellowship to attend Yale's graduate program,He wrote for the The Village Voice for several years, leaving in 1975 after which he wrote for Esquire, Harper's, High Times, Vanity Fair, New York Times Magazine, and Slate 5-9-2009 http://www.slate.com/id/2191104/pagenum/3
Of course we all think the days when we have to be concerned about such
AND
ratchet up again. As they have, alas, recently but unmistakably.

Link
Nuclear is unpopular—Costs too much and trades off with energies the GOP likes, that’s US News
Thorium reactors too theoretical and expensive—Extremely unpopular
Eifion Rees for the Ecologist guardian.co.uk, Thursday 23 June 2011 11.52 EDTDon't believe the spin on thorium being a greener nuclear option Ecologist: It produces less radioactive waste and more power but it remains unproven on a commercial scale. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/23/thorium-nuclear-uranium

China did announce this year that it intended to develop a thorium MSR, but
AND
greater, which is why no government has ever continued their funding.'
Nuclear power unpopular – poll counts, alternative support, safety
Pew Research Center, 3/21/2011 Opposition to Nuclear Power Rises Amid Japanese Crisis
Support for Offshore Oil and Gas Drilling Rebounds, http://www.people-press.org/2011/03/21/opposition-to-nuclear-power-rises-amid-japanese-crisis/
Not surprisingly, public support for the increased use of nuclear power has declined amid
AND
Japan while 10% say plants in the United States are less safe.
Obama backing off support of nuclear power now because they know the link is true
Levine 9/7 (Greg, former managing editor of Firedoglake, and contributing writer for Truthout, former strategic consultant, doing branding, positioning, and communications for numerous media concerns, consumer products and services companies, political campaigns, not-for-profits, and civic and quasi-governmental organization,former public interest lobbying and organizing on Capitol Hill, specializing in extradition law, intelligence abuse, and first amendment issues, http://capitoilette.com/2012/09/07/obama-drops-nuclear-from-energy-segment-of-convention-speech/)
In the wake of Fukushima, where hundreds of thousands of Japanese have been displaced
AND
his second shot at casting for the future, nuclear power is political deadweight
UQ
1NC Silver evidence says newest analysis of polling data indicates Obama is ahead and gaining ground in key swing states- he’s keeping the convention bounce and is even getting ahead in North Carolina- even if they win indicts that say Romney is actually ahead somewhere, Obama’s the only one gaining ground now- 84% chance he wins
Obama will win- ahead in key swing states- most recent polling proves- but it’s not locked in
Silver 9/27/2012 (Nate, Sept. 26: Could 2012 Be Like 2008?, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/27/sept-26-could-2012-be-like-2008/)
There’s no point in putting it gently: Mitt Romney had one of his worst
AND
states where he’s likely to underachieve his 2008 numbers by several percentage points.
Obama will win- but the plan could change it
Cohn 9/26/2012 (Nate, elections blogger for the New Republic, if you’re from Whitman and you’re reading this, you can’t disagree with it; former intern at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, NDT double-octofinalist and all-around awesome debate person, Daily Breakdown: Obama's Bounce Cascades Across Battleground States, http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107752/daily-breakdown-obamas-bounce-cascades-across-battleground-states#)
In Ohio, Romney’s problems extend beyond his four or five point deficit. His
AND
far this week don't show signs of such a swing in Romney's direction.

Obama’s ahead on the economy and in swing states
Sargent 9/26/2012 (Greg, Washington Post reporter and blogger, Why the polls may be shifting, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/why-the-polls-may-be-shifting/2012/09/26/0ab5763e-0809-11e2-a10c-fa5a255a9258_blog.html)
A lot of the commentary about the national and state polls that are shifting away
AND
will improve if Obama’s policies are given more time. And so on.
Obama will win- base turnout
Bouie 9/26/2012 (Jamelle, Writing Fellow for The American Prospect, graduate of the University of Virginia, Among Obama supporters, enthusiasm hasn’t dimmed, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/among-obama-supporters-enthusiasm-hasnt-dimmed/2012/09/26/cb65e624-07e7-11e2-9eea-333857f6a7bd_blog.html)
A common theme we keep hearing from conservatives who are unhappy with the public polls
AND
groups will enter November highly energized, and ready to reelect the president.

1NC
Off

Expansion of nuclear power makes accidents more likely—Reactors designs and fuel types are irrelevant
Ramana 11 (MV, With the Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton University and is on the Coordinating Committee of the Coalition for Nuclear Disarmament and Peace, 11 Costs, risks, and myths of nuclear power, “No escape from accidents,” http://www.nirs.org/international/reachingcriticalwillreport.pdf)
In the aftermath of Fukushima and, twenty five years earlier, Chernobyl, it
AND
, though, our experience is too limited to make any reliable predictions.
Extinction
Lendman 11 – Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (Stephen, 03/ 13, “Nuclear Meltdown in Japan,” http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2011/03/13/nuclear-meltdown-in-japan)
Reuters said the 1995 Kobe quake caused $100 billion in damage, up to
AND
potentially millions under a worse case scenario, including far outside East Asia. 

Off
Text: The Department of Energy should alter the Quadrennial Technology Review to include a recommendation to increase loan guarantees for the expansion of nuclear power in the United States.
Competes---the CP’s policy statement is not legally binding---it doesn’t enact the plan, it simply recommends its mandates
Charles H. Koch 5, the Dudley W. Woodbridge Professor of Law, William and Mary School of Law, Spring 2005, “Policymaking by the Administrative Judiciary,” Alabama Law Review, 56 Ala. L. Rev. 693, p. lexis n110 E.g., Consol Edison Co of New York v. FERC, 315 F.3d 316, 323 (D.C. Cir 2003)
"Policy statements" differ from substantive rules that carry the "force of law
AND
Administrative Open Mind, 41 DUKE L J 1497, 1503 (1992).
Solves the Case---the practical result is the same as binding law---the policy statement sends the signal of the plan and causes agencies to implement it
James Hunnicutt 99, J.D., Boston College Law School, December 1999, “NOTE: Another Reason to Reform the Federal Regulatory System: Agencies' Treating Nonlegislative Rules as Binding Law,” Boston College Law Review, 41 B.C. L. Rev 153, p. lexis
Depending on whether a rule is adopted with or without notice-and-comment
AND
the rule in court and have given up on the appeals process. n156
The CP avoids politics—Plan and perm link
Connor N. Raso 10, J.D., Yale Law School, January 2010, “Note: Strategic or Sincere? Analyzing Agency Use of Guidance Documents,” The Yale Law Journal, 119 Yale L.J. 782, p. lexis
Guidance documents generally attract less attention from Congress and the President, giving agency leaders
AND
cases where Congress and the President are likely to intervene against the agency.
Off
Obama will win- most recent polls and momentum are on his side
Silver 9/28/2012 (Nate, Genius, writer for FiveThirtyEight, now under the New York Times, The blog is devoted to rigorous analysis of politics, polling, public affairs, sports, science and culture, largely through statistical means, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/28/sept-27-the-impact-of-the-47-percent/)
Thursday’s Polls¶ What we can say with more confidence is that Mr. Romney
AND
Nov. 6 forecast, up from 81.9 percent on Wednesday.
Nuclear Power is unpopular – funding, transitions from other issues, and tradeoffs

US News, 2009 Nov 30th, Democrats Change Tune on Nuclear Energy, http://www.usnews.com/news/energy/articles/2009/11/30/democrats-change-tune-on-nuclear-energy

This calculation is outraging many of the administration's environmental-minded supporters, who say
AND
someone's gain will most likely be someone else's loss in the energy world.

Base Mobilization key to winning the election—empirically proven for incumbents
WSJ 5/22 (The Wall Street Journal “As in 2004, energizing the base a key to victory” 5/22/12 http://www.myfoxdfw.com/story/18583004/as-in-2004-energizing-the-base-a-key-to-victory#ixzz1MekSBwU) KY
President Barack Obama does not often dwell on similarities to his predecessor, George W
AND
But 2004 suggests that both sides' strategies may start with mobilizing the core.
Obama win key to US-Russia relations – Romney’s agenda is belligerent and controversial.
Reichardt 7/9. (Adam is the Managing Editor of New Eastern Europe, “Considering Russia in the Voting Booth,” New Eastern Europe, 2012, http://www.neweasterneurope.eu/node/382)

Obama’s policy AND American foreign policy.

Extinction
Collins and Rojansky 10 – * U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation from 1997 to 2001, AND deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment (8/18/10, James F. Collins, Matthew Rojansky, Foreign Policy, “Why Russia Matters,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=viewandid=41409,)
A year and a half after Barack Obama hit the "reset" button with
AND
to maintain relations with Russia. And good relations would be even better.

Off
Plan: The United States federal government ought to make available a permanent production tax credit for systems referenced in United States Code Title 42, Chapter 100, § 9210(2).
Solves Manufacturing sector
BusinessWire 12/12/11 (New Study: Wind Energy Success Story at Risk with 54,000 American Jobs in the Balance, http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20111212005589/en/Study-Wind-Energy-Success-Story-Risk-54000) kc
“American manufacturing jobs are coming back, with tens of thousands of new jobs
AND
its products, the PTC effectively expires at the end of this year.

Shifts world away from nuclear, solving prolif
Desombre, 10 (Elizabeth R, Frost Associate Professor of Environmental Studies and Associate Professor of Political Science focusing on international environmental politics @ Wellesley,  “The United States and Global Environmental Politics: Domestic Sources of U.S. Unilateralism”, 2010, http://www.polisci.ufl.edu/usfpinstitute/2010/documents/readings/DeSombre%20Chapter.pdf) WP
U.S. leadership (or even level of participation) in international environmental
AND
, pushed by industry impacted by¶ international (or subnational) regulation.

Leadership

    No nuclear renaissance—Laundry list of barriers
    Slocum 12 (Tyson Slocum dir. Public Citizen’s Energy Program, 2-13-2012, "NRC Approval Doesn’t Signal Much," National Journal, http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/02/is-america-poised-for-nuclear.php)
    The Nuclear Regulatory AND  renewable technologies.
    2. Any form of nuclear will drastically increase the risk of successful proliferation
    Diesendorf, 2011 Spring, Demystification of Nuclear Energy, Mark Diesendorf is an Australian academic and environmentalist, known for his work in promoting environmentally sustainable practices in industry. He currently teaches Environmental Studies at the University of New South Wales, Australia. http://www.ies.unsw.edu.au/docs/DemystificationNuclearEnergyMD.pdf
    Neutrons are also released, which can split more uranium-235, which releases
    AND
    successfully tested nuclear bombs based on reactor-grade plutonium. (Roberts,
    undated)
    3. Reprocessing kills the NPT and causes international backlash
    UCSUSA, 2011 April 5th, Union of concerned scientists, Nuclear Reprocessing: Dangerous, Dirty, and Expensive, http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_risk/nuclear_proliferation_and_terrorism/nuclear-reprocessing.html
    U.S. reprocessing would undermine the U.S. goal of halting
    AND
    , all reprocessing technologies are far more proliferation-prone than direct disposal.
    Reprocessing would hurt U.S. nuclear waste management efforts.
    4. No nuclear – it is becoming less cost competitive
    Green Chip Stocks, August 20th 2012, GE (NYSE:GE) Slams Economics of Nuclear Is GE Turning Cold on Nuclear?, http://www.greenchipstocks.com/articles/ge-nysege-slams-economics-of-nuclear/2097
    As the whole world is fixated on the debate about on using and not using
    AND
    nuclear plans, strong local opposition particularly in India has stalled those plans.
    5. Proliferation will be slow
    Waltz 00 (Kenneth Waltz, Professor of Political Science at UC Berkeley, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, v1 n1, Winter/Spring 2000)
    It is now estimated that about twenty–five countries are in a position to
    AND
    , in which one or two states per decade gradually develop nuclear weapons.
    6. No domino effect – it’s empirically denied
    Bergenas 10 (Research Associate at the Henry L. Stimson Center, Johan, “The Nuclear Domino Myth”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66738/johan-bergenas/the-nuclear-domino-myth)
    But there's one problem with this "nuclear domino" scenario: the historical record
    AND
    was there even a two-country nuclear arms race in the region.
    7. Nuke plants are vulnerable to terrorism – they fail safety tests and a successful attack doesn’t even require technical knowledge
    Stone, 11 (Daniel, senior political reporter @ Newsweek, “Flirting With Disaster;
    Every few years the defenses of the nation's nuclear plants are tested. What's scary is how often they fail”, 1/17/11, SCIENCE; Pg. 38 Vol. 157 No. 03 ISSN: 0028-9604, lexis) WP
    In early 2009 a team of terrorists managed to enter a nuclear-power plant
    AND
    would cause it to self-ignite and spread radiation through the air.¶
    8. Zero risk of nuclear terrorism
    Mearsheimer 11 (Professor of Political Science at UChicago, John, January, “Imperial by Design,” http://nationalinterest.org/article/imperial-by-design-4576?page=10, Mike)
    The fact is that states have strong incentives to distrust terrorist groups, in part
    AND
    by accident-causing deer, or by severe allergic reactions to peanuts.”

Natural Gas

    Transition Turn—
    a. SQ will decrease emissions by 80% by 2050- maintaining the transition key to solve warming and avoid peak oil impacts
    Lovins 2012 (Amory, physicist, environmental scientist, writer, and Chairman/Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, Oxford MA, A Farewell to Fossil Fuels: Answering the Energy Challenge, Foreign Affairs, March/April, proquest)
    Weaning the United States from those fossil fuels would require two big shifts: in
    AND
    last, Americans could make energy do their work without working their undoing.
    b. Nuke power trades off with renewables, jacks short-term transition key to solve warming and peak fossil fuel
    Conolley 2011 (Heather, PhD Candidate in Political Science at UC- Santa Barbara, The Renaissance of Nuclear Energy in the Shadow of Climate Change, PhD Dissertation, proquest)
    Given the long lead time associated with development and reactor  construction, nuclear opponents argue
    AND
    2011). Thus opportunity costs for constructing nuclear reactors must be  carefully considered.
    c. Transition away from oil NOW key
    Yetiv and Fowler 2011 (Dr. Steve Yetiv is University Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Old Dominion University, Eric Fowler is a Military Intelligence Officer in the US Army and PhD student at Old Dominion in International Studies, The Challenges of Decreasing Oil Consumption, Political Science Quarterly126. 2, proquest)
    No one can predict an oil peak definitely or guess its specific effects. However
    AND
    oil, the less serious would be the potential effects of peak oil.
    d. Peak oil destroys the global economy
    Seljom and Rosenberg 2011 (Pernille and Eva, Institute for Energy Technology (Norway), A study of oil and natural gas resources and production, International Journal of Energy Sector Management5. 1(2011): 101-124. Proquest)
    The long-term development of energy systems is characterised by a high degree of
    AND
    of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production.
    2. Warming occurs in the winter and at night
    Eschenbach 10 (Independent Climate Researcher, Climate Specialties: Tropical tropospheric amplification, constructal theories of climate, “Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics … and Graphs”, Watts Up With That)
    So I decided to look for a way to present exactly the same information so
    AND
    above is probably shown somewhere about twice as large as it actually is …
    3. Err NEG on irreversibility- The impact of nuclear war is instantaneous- Climate change is progressive, allowing us to adapt
    McGwire 5 (Michel, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Jan, “The Rise and Fall of the NPT”, International Affairs: 81, 1 pg. 115-140)
    Risk is the product of the consequences of a calamity and the probability of its
    AND
    the threat of global nuclear war, but climate change cannot be evaded.
    4. Natural gas makes nuclear impossible – no market parity for a decade
    Forbes 3-29-12 (“Fracking Gas Is Writing America’s Energy Policy,” http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2012/03/29/fracking-gas-is-writing-americas-energy-policy/, Mike)
    Much of what the United States might have achieved through a visionary energy policy—
    AND
    for society, but it’s a whole new challenge for the energy industry.”
    5. Methane emissions are not anthropogenic and don’t cause their impact – prefer our evidence it cites international bodies of scientists
    Lewis 9-25-12 (Lewis, “Arctic Methane Emissions Have Been Going on for Ages,” http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/09/25/dont_panic_arctic_mission_finds_methane_emissions_old_news/, Mike)
    Scientists returning from a seaborne expedition to the Arctic say that the ongoing panic in
    AND
    effervescing," explains Professor Doktor Tina Treude, another of the expedition scientists.
    6. Econ decline doesn’t cause war
    Barnett 9, senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC, contributing editor/online columnist for Esquire, 8/25,
    (Thomas P.M, “The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis,” Aprodex, Asset Protection Index, http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules~-~-security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx)
    When the global financial crisis struck roughly a year ago, the blogosphere was ablaze
    AND
    . Our new Africa Command, for example, hasn't led us to anything
    6. Heg decline doesn’t cause war either
    Buzan 11 (Barry, London School of Economics, Department of International Relations, "A World Order Without Superpowers: Decentred Globalism")
    In 2004 I argued, in line with much mainstream thinking, that the most
    AND
    to keep the world order from falling into 1930s-style imperial competition.
    7. Chemical Turn—
    a. Natural gas is critical to chemical and the steel industry.
    Pooley -12 (ERIC POOLEY, Environmental Defense Fund,  AUGUST 10, 2012, Natural Gas – A Briefing Paper For Candidates, http://blogs.edf.org/energyexchange/2012/08/10/natural-gas-a-briefing-paper-for-candidates/)
    While a majority of Americans remain unfamiliar with hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking,"
    AND
    sense of the potential for U.S. energy independence and energy security
    b. Chem industry solves everything—Impact is extinction
    Baum, editor-in-chief of the American Chemical Society's Chemical and Engineering News 1999(Rudy M. Baum, CandE News, “Millennium Special Report,” 12-6-99, http://pubs.acs.org/hotartcl/cenear/991206/7749spintro2.html)
    The pace of change in today's world is truly incomprehensible. Science is advancing on
    AND
    up in real public fear of genetic manipulation and corporate control over food.
    Solvency
    Nuclear expansion impossible – laundry list of supply and sitting constraints
    Zyga 11 (Lisa “Why nuclear power will never supply the world’s energy needs,” PhysOrg, http://phys.org/news/2011-05-nuclear-power-world-energy.html
    The 440 commercial nuclear reactors in use worldwide are currently helping to minimize our consumption
    AND
    reactors, even though commercial fusion is still likely a long way off.

Block
A2 – I didn’t bring enough cards up (Add ons)

Grid
We deter it
Doesn’t say who would attack
Nukes destroy the grid

Ozone
Wouldn’t cause extinction
Easterbrook 3 (senior fellow at the New Republic, “We're All Gonna Die!”, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.07/doomsday.html?pg=1andtopic=andtopic_set=)
If we're talking about doomsday - the end of human civilization - many scenarios simply
AND
as he was, wrote Remembrance of Things Past while lying in bed.

Nuclear conflict would devastate the Ozone—Causes rapid warming which accelerates the impact
Food Prices
Food Prices hit 20 year high
Corrigan 11 (Annie, Indiana Public Media Announcer, World Food Prices Soar To 20-Year High, http://indianapublicmedia.org/eartheats/world-food-prices-soar/)
Prices for cooking oils, grains, sugar and meat have soared to levels not
AND
response to sky-rocketing prices for sugar, flour, and oil. 

DA Turns it anyways—Nuclear conflict makes food scarce—Skyrockets prices
Impact O/V
DA outweighs and turns the case—Relations are key to arms reduction—Russian launch destroys the U.S. within thirty minutes and escalates into every impact in the book. The two largest nuclear arsenals in the world simultaneously exploding causes waves of diseases and firestorms destroying support systems—they do not have an impact of greater magnitude

Shortest time-frame
Mintz 1 (Morton, February 26, “Two Minutes to Launch,” The American Prospect, http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=two_minutes_to_launch)
Hair-trigger alert means this: The missiles carrying those warheads are armed and
AND
would be, basically, a nuclear war by checklist, by rote."
Conflict turns the case—Nuclear conflict makes developing nuclear plants impossible—They’d be destroyed before construction would even be completed
Relations solves prolif—Relations means they can continue arms reduction talks, that’s Collins and Rjonski
Relations solve HEG—Super powers working together good

Obama win results in the AFF
Roy 8/28/12 (Manik Roy, The Vice President for Strategic Outreach for the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, The Forecast: Partly Clear, Partly Hazy, AUGUST 28, 2012, http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/sizing-up-romney-and-obama-ene.php)
We recently published a nonpartisan voter guide on the candidates' records and statements on climate
AND
, including the wind production tax credit, and also for continued research.

A2 – Impact D
Tensions are still high and so is risk of conflict
Ron Rosenbaum, graduated from Yale University in and won a Carnegie Fellowship to attend Yale's graduate program,He wrote for the The Village Voice for several years, leaving in 1975 after which he wrote for Esquire, Harper's, High Times, Vanity Fair, New York Times Magazine, and Slate 5-9-2009 http://www.slate.com/id/2191104/pagenum/3
Of course we all think the days when we have to be concerned about such
AND
ratchet up again. As they have, alas, recently but unmistakably.

Link
Nuclear is unpopular—Costs too much and trades off with energies the GOP likes, that’s US News
Thorium reactors too theoretical and expensive—Extremely unpopular
Eifion Rees for the Ecologist guardian.co.uk, Thursday 23 June 2011 11.52 EDTDon't believe the spin on thorium being a greener nuclear option Ecologist: It produces less radioactive waste and more power but it remains unproven on a commercial scale. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/23/thorium-nuclear-uranium

China did announce this year that it intended to develop a thorium MSR, but
AND
greater, which is why no government has ever continued their funding.'
Nuclear power unpopular – poll counts, alternative support, safety
Pew Research Center, 3/21/2011 Opposition to Nuclear Power Rises Amid Japanese Crisis
Support for Offshore Oil and Gas Drilling Rebounds, http://www.people-press.org/2011/03/21/opposition-to-nuclear-power-rises-amid-japanese-crisis/
Not surprisingly, public support for the increased use of nuclear power has declined amid
AND
Japan while 10% say plants in the United States are less safe.
Obama backing off support of nuclear power now because they know the link is true
Levine 9/7 (Greg, former managing editor of Firedoglake, and contributing writer for Truthout, former strategic consultant, doing branding, positioning, and communications for numerous media concerns, consumer products and services companies, political campaigns, not-for-profits, and civic and quasi-governmental organization,former public interest lobbying and organizing on Capitol Hill, specializing in extradition law, intelligence abuse, and first amendment issues, http://capitoilette.com/2012/09/07/obama-drops-nuclear-from-energy-segment-of-convention-speech/)
In the wake of Fukushima, where hundreds of thousands of Japanese have been displaced
AND
his second shot at casting for the future, nuclear power is political deadweight
A2 – Thumpers
Group their thumpers—
Presidential debates don’t matter
Marlantes 9/14/2012 (Liz, covers politics for the Christian Science Monitor and is a regular contributor to the Monitor's political blog, DC Decoder, Swing state polls: Is Mitt Romney Running Out of Time?, http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2012/0914/Swing-state-polls-Is-Mitt-Romney-running-out-of-time)
But what about the debates? Can’t Romney turn things around with a surprisingly strong
AND
The person who’s leading now – going into the debates – usually wins.”
Thumpers don’t really matter- prefer our robust forecasting models from Silver- only the plan would structurally change the election, not tiny scandals
Silver 9/9/2012 (Nate, Genius, writer for FiveThirtyEight, now under the New York Times, The blog is devoted to rigorous analysis of politics, polling, public affairs, sports, science and culture, largely through statistical means, Sept. 9: Call It as You See It, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/10/sept-9-call-it-as-you-see-it/#more-34347)
Finally, keep in mind that our forecasts normally are pretty stable. More often
AND
. (Although he gained ground among Ipsos’s broader sample of registered voters).
A2 – Link Turns
GOP will claim the win – this sucks up any risk of a link turn
JULIANO and SCHOR, ’12 POLITICS: Lame duck may seal fate of transportation, wind, as time crunch intensifies¶ SECTION: SPOTLIGHT Vol. 10 No. 9¶ LENGTH: 2225 words¶ Nick Juliano and Elana Schor, EandE reporters Energy and Environment Daily, L/N

One lobbyist for a major wind developer, who was granted anonymity to discuss the situation candidly, sounded hopeful that reports that senators on both sides of the aisle were beginning to get serious about dealing with the extenders, suggesting that Republicans may want to be able "to claim some credit for this" and would be willing to reach a deal.

Your polls and statistics wrong
Daily Kos, June 5th 2012, Nuclear Power and Public Opinion: What the polls say, http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/06/05/1097574/-Nuclear-Power-and-Public-Opinion-What-the-polls-say

Public opinion on nuclear power matters. Should we build new reactors or not?
AND
further back. Yes, that includes GOP/Fox News favorite Rasmussen.

A2 – Econ Matters

Economy-only models are empirically wrong and have zero predictive value
Silver 2012 (Nate, Genius, Models Based on ‘Fundamentals’ Have Failed at Predicting Presidential Elections, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/26/models-based-on-fundamentals-have-failed-at-predicting-presidential-elections/)
The 1988 presidential election was a victory for political science. Michael Dukakis had led
AND
almost literally no predictive power, whether looked at individually or averaged together.

UQ
1NC Silver evidence says newest analysis of polling data indicates Obama is ahead and gaining ground in key swing states- he’s keeping the convention bounce and is even getting ahead in North Carolina- even if they win indicts that say Romney is actually ahead somewhere, Obama’s the only one gaining ground now- 84% chance he wins
Obama will win- ahead in key swing states- most recent polling proves- but it’s not locked in
Silver 9/27/2012 (Nate, Sept. 26: Could 2012 Be Like 2008?, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/27/sept-26-could-2012-be-like-2008/)
There’s no point in putting it gently: Mitt Romney had one of his worst
AND
states where he’s likely to underachieve his 2008 numbers by several percentage points.
A2 – UQ Overwhlems
The plan could still make Romney win
CBS News 9/27/2012 (Can Romney still turn things around?, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57521661/can-romney-still-turn-things-around/)
Still, a strong debate performance for Romney could, if nothing else, change
AND
can't, history suggests he is unlikely to emerge victorious on Election Day.

Obama will win- but the plan could change it
Cohn 9/26/2012 (Nate, elections blogger for the New Republic, if you’re from Whitman and you’re reading this, you can’t disagree with it; former intern at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, NDT double-octofinalist and all-around awesome debate person, Daily Breakdown: Obama's Bounce Cascades Across Battleground States, http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107752/daily-breakdown-obamas-bounce-cascades-across-battleground-states#)
In Ohio, Romney’s problems extend beyond his four or five point deficit. His
AND
far this week don't show signs of such a swing in Romney's direction.

Obama’s ahead on the economy and in swing states
Sargent 9/26/2012 (Greg, Washington Post reporter and blogger, Why the polls may be shifting, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/why-the-polls-may-be-shifting/2012/09/26/0ab5763e-0809-11e2-a10c-fa5a255a9258_blog.html)
A lot of the commentary about the national and state polls that are shifting away
AND
will improve if Obama’s policies are given more time. And so on.
Obama will win- base turnout
Bouie 9/26/2012 (Jamelle, Writing Fellow for The American Prospect, graduate of the University of Virginia, Among Obama supporters, enthusiasm hasn’t dimmed, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/among-obama-supporters-enthusiasm-hasnt-dimmed/2012/09/26/cb65e624-07e7-11e2-9eea-333857f6a7bd_blog.html)
A common theme we keep hearing from conservatives who are unhappy with the public polls
AND
groups will enter November highly energized, and ready to reelect the president.

Block Solvency Wall
The counterplan solves the entire case---it has the Department of Energy alter the QTR expressing support for the mandates of the plan---that non-binding agency guidance document shapes the public debate over future policy and alters budgets to fund the plan – that’s Tollefson
The result of the CP is indistinguishable from the plan--- it signals that the DOE has embraced the end-point of the plan---nobody will perceive a difference between the plan and the CP for the purpose of solvency and if they do, they’ll comply with the CP as though it were binding---that’s Hunnicut.
The QTR will shape future policies – it’s a guide to budget planners.
Science Business -11(DoE Science Review Boosts Transport, Grid, Quicker Payoffs, September 27, 2011, http://sciencebusiness.technewslit.com/?p=6226)
The U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) today released its first
AND
perspectives. It also should serve as a guide for annual budget planners.

And, priority - Inclusion in the QTR causes policy to get focused on and developed first.
Koonin -11 (Statement of Steven E. Koonin, Under Secretary for Science, U.S. Department of Energy, Before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources  United States Senate, November 15, 2011 , http://www.energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=46e0d57d-7a61-4aa1-afcf-be399658c694)
As Secretary Chu noted in his introduction to the QTR, the Department’s energy technology
AND
engineering research will vary according to the status and significance of the technology. 

Agency policy statements determine the direction of future policy---it becomes the starting point against which future policy is measured
Connor N. Raso 10, J.D., Yale Law School, January 2010, “Note: Strategic or Sincere? Analyzing Agency Use of Guidance Documents,” The Yale Law Journal, 119 Yale L.J. 782, p. lexis
Policy statements are intended to provide the public with a sense of an agency's position
AND
may have important policy implications if they alter the behavior of regulated parties.

Agencies are overwhelmingly likely to comply with the memo---zero risk of their solvency deficits because the CP changes the calculus of the staff responsible for implementing the plan
Robert A. Anthony 92, Professor of Law, George Washington University, June 1992, “ARTICLE: INTERPRETIVE RULES, POLICY STATEMENTS, GUIDANCES, MANUALS, AND THE LIKE -- SHOULD FEDERAL AGENCIES USE THEM TO BIND THE PUBLIC?,” Duke Law Journal, 41 Duke L.J. 1311, p. lexis
General knowledge of normal bureaucratic behavior permits us to postulate a basic general proposition about
AND
a rigidly applied rule, with the effect of binding private parties. n314

Empirics prove that the QER solves.
Friedmann -11 (Julio Friedmann, Julio Friedmann is the Carbon Management Program Leader for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Why We Need a Quadrennial Energy Review, April 3, 2011, http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2011/04/why-we-need-a-quadrennial-energy-review/73371/)
First, the U.S. needs internal agreement on the specifics of our
AND
One can also imagine a plan that suits our needs as a nation.
It sends the same signal as the plan
Robert A. Anthony 98, Professor of Law, George Washington University, August 11, 1998, “Unlegislated Compulsion:
How Federal Agency Guidelines Threaten Your Liberty,” online: http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa312.html
There is a proper and indeed often valuable role for the agency policy statement:
AND
, while a policy statement that the agency treats as binding does not.

The practical, functional result of the CP is indistinguishable from the plan---despite the profound legal difference
Tom J. Boer 99, Attorney, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of General Counsel, Spring 1999, “ARTICLE: DOES CONFUSION REIGN AT THE INTERSECTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE LAW?: REVIEW OF INTERPRETIVE RULES AND POLICY STATEMENTS UNDER JUDICIAL REVIEW PROVISIONS SUCH AS RCRA SECTION 7006(a)(1),” Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review, 26 B.C. Envtl. Aff. L. Rev. 519, p. lexis n43 See, e.g., Asimow, supra note 19, at 383-84.
Although the theoretical difference between the legal effect of legislative and nonlegislative rules is clear
AND
effect is profoundly different, the real-world consequences are usually identical.

It shapes budget requests.
National Geographic -11 (Mason Inman, Cutting Oil Use Should Be Focus of U.S. Energy Research, New Roadmap Says, September 29, 2011, http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2011/09/29/cutting-oil-use-should-be-focus-of-u-s-energy-research-new-roadmap-says/)
A major study modeled after goal-setting reports from the Departments of Defense and
AND
for 80 percent for America’s electricity to come from clean sources by 2035.

The DOE is widely popular – cp causes massive support for the plan.
Koonin -11 (Statement of Steven E. Koonin, Under Secretary for Science, U.S. Department of Energy, Before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources  United States Senate, November 15, 2011 , http://www.energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=46e0d57d-7a61-4aa1-afcf-be399658c694)
As a result of the Review, we found that looking just at DOE:
AND
science into its technology programs to better inform and support the Department’s investments.  
A2: Perm – do the cp
Permuting to do the CP is severance---the CP clearly doesn’t make binding law---it’s a policy memo which expresses support for the concept of the plan, but in no way mandates it---this distinction is legally significant and borne out in the way that agencies actually make policy---that’s Koch.
The CP doesn’t just PIC out of certainty---there is zero world in which voting neg includes mandating that any part of the plan be done---there is nothing in the CP that could reasonably constitute the plan---it’s different than a CP that, for instance, conditioned the plan on the outcome of some review process---our CP never contains the possibility of mandating the adoption of the plan---means the perm has to be severance. 

a. Resolved means definitive action—not a delay
Dictionary.com no date (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/resolved)
 “Resolved: to come to a definite or earnest decision about; determine”

b. Should implies a swift obligation to act
American Heritage® Dictionary ’96  1996, 1992 by Houghton Mifflin Company, www.dictionary.com, accessed 4/2/01
should (shd)    v. aux. Past tense of shall.
1.Used to express obligation or duty: You should send her a note. 

The plan and the CP are categorically different---the distinction’s legally significant
Charles H. Koch 5, the Dudley W. Woodbridge Professor of Law, William and Mary School of Law, Spring 2005, “Policymaking by the Administrative Judiciary,” Alabama Law Review, 56 Ala. L. Rev. 693, p. lexis
The question of application is complicated because administrative rules may have differing force and administrative
AND
different type of pronouncement from legislative rules, and this difference should be reflected

 in the weight given by an agency's adjudicators. n109 A nonlegislative rule is a device for announcing policy. n110 They are intended to disclose the agency's views and offer guidance regarding agency law. n111 Thus, an agency must *716 obey these pronouncements as well as legislative rules unless a deviation can be justified. n112

Err neg---this area of law is confusing---the aff and their authors probably get it wrong
Charles H. Koch 5, the Dudley W. Woodbridge Professor of Law, William and Mary School of Law, Spring 2005, “Policymaking by the Administrative Judiciary,” Alabama Law Review, 56 Ala. L. Rev. 693, p. lexis
Administrative agencies adjudicate massive numbers of individual disputes, far exceeding the number resolved by
AND
require this Article's analysis to ultimately reach beyond the implications of these studies.

Policy statements are advisory and concern the likely trajectory of future agency action---they don’t bind anyone in the present
Richard E. Levy 11, the J.B. Smith Distinguished Professor of Constitutional Law, University of Kansas, and Robert L. Glicksman, the J.B. and Maurice C. Shapiro Professor of Environmental Law, The George Washington University Law School, February 2011, “Agency-Specific Precedents,” Texas Law Review, 89 Tex. L. Rev. 499, p. lexis
Policy statements are "statements issued by an agency to advise the public prospectively of
AND
the agency, and courts will not treat the rule as binding. n110

The practical impact of the CP is irrelevant from a legal and competition standpoint---which means it’s possible for the CP to have the same on the ground result as binding law but still be legally distinct
James Hunnicutt 99, J.D., Boston College Law School, December 1999, “NOTE: Another Reason to Reform the Federal Regulatory System: Agencies' Treating Nonlegislative Rules as Binding Law,” Boston College Law Review, 41 B.C. L. Rev 153, p. lexis 

    Factors Distinguishing Nonlegislative from Legislative Rules To distinguish whether a rule is nonlegislative
    AND
    . n115 Nonlegislative rules, however, sometimes have practical legal effects. n116
    A2: Recommendation CPs Bad
    No link to any of their offense---the CP never fiats any part of the plan---the only action mandated by the CP is the release of a memo supporting the end-point of the plan, which we argue causes the functionally same on-the-ground implementation---this distinction is of paramount importance---their theory args presume the CP mandates the plan---this should be a question of solvency evidence, not theoretical legitimacy.
    Hold the line on their claims of what our CP justifies---it’s fundamentally distinct from the worst CPs like consult, condition the plan, etc because it never even has the possibility of mandating the adoption of the plan.
    This style of CP is vital to neg ground---every negative argument relies on holding the aff responsible for defending a mandated increase in exploration---means the CP is a fundamental test of the desirability of the resolution. Err neg---the “development” side makes limiting the topic impossible and the vastly different mechanisms mean what little unifying neg ground exists should be preserved at all costs.
    Lots of ground exists---the CP addresses a key legal question
    Connor N. Raso 10, J.D., Yale Law School, January 2010, “Note: Strategic or Sincere? Analyzing Agency Use of Guidance Documents,” The Yale Law Journal, 119 Yale L.J. 782, p. lexis
    Scholars and policymakers alike have devoted increasing attention to a seemingly obscure question: do federal agencies improperly issue "guidance documents" n1 in place of legally binding "legislative rules" on a widespread basis? n2 This attention has been motivated by concern that agencies frequently use guidance documents to avoid procedures n3 intended both to facilitate public participation in the regulatory process 

and to enable the elected branches of government to monitor agencies more easily. n4
AND
determine whether agencies commonly issue guidance to avoid the notice and comment process.

Uniqueness wall
Green Chips Stocks – Less competitive due to other fuels. Even their 1AC makes that claim 

Slocum – explains other countries don’t see a benefit to it anymore, this evidence is newest, from late September. Assumes current barriers and increasing prices of other fuels 

Nuclear expansion impossible – laundry list of supply and sitting constraints
Zyga 11 (Lisa “Why nuclear power will never supply the world’s energy needs,” PhysOrg, http://phys.org/news/2011-05-nuclear-power-world-energy.html
The 440 commercial nuclear reactors in use worldwide are currently helping to minimize our consumption
AND
reactors, even though commercial fusion is still likely a long way off.

Prolif Wall
Fast Reactors increase risk of proliferation – transport of materials
The Guardian, July 30th 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/30/fast-breeder-reactors-nuclear-waste-nightmare, Are fast-breeder reactors the answer to our nuclear waste nightmare?
Proponents of fast reactors see them as the nuclear application of one of the totems
AND
in preparation for recycling "would be dangerously vulnerable to theft or misuse."

Reprocessing increases the risk of nuclear terrorism – you make the waste stealable  
UCSUSA, 2011 April 5th, Union of concerned scientists, Nuclear Reprocessing: Dangerous, Dirty, and Expensive, http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_risk/nuclear_proliferation_and_terrorism/nuclear-reprocessing.html
While some supporters of a U.S. reprocessing program believe it would help
AND
than 500 metric tons.¶ Reprocessing would increase the ease of nuclear proliferation.

IFR reprocessing makes the weaponization of waste easier
Diesendorf, 2011 Spring, Demystification of Nuclear Energy, Mark Diesendorf is an Australian academic and environmentalist, known for his work in promoting environmentally sustainable practices in industry. He currently teaches Environmental Studies at the University of New South Wales, Australia. http://www.ies.unsw.edu.au/docs/DemystificationNuclearEnergyMD.pdf
A proposed variant of the fast breeder is the integral fast reactor. It is
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. This is the reason why the US government¶ discontinued research on this

2NC Prolif Defense
Ext. 1 – Prolif Slow
Extend Waltz – proliferation will be slow. Their authors are paranoid and continually over-state the risk. Since the 60s, they have claimed we were on the brink of a massive wave of proliferation, but there are still less than 10 countries with nukes and only a couple more are threatening
And, it will stay slow – 3 reasons
First, Capability—
Iran proves it takes decades to develop an arsenal; new weapons don’t appear out of thin air
Fox 7 (Stuart, author for Scienceline, “Why is it taking Iran so long to make a nuclear weapons? Didn’t it only take the US four years to invent them?”)  http://scienceline.org/2007/11/20/ask-fox-nuclearbombs/
Iran and its nuclear program appears a great deal in the news these days, even with estimates that they are five to ten years away from completing a nuclear weapon. To understand why it’s taken Iran over 18 years to build a bomb, one needs to consider the steps it takes to build a bomb, and differences between the conditions in which Iran and the U.S. pursued this technology.
And, expenses – the sheer number of workers and materials means that developing weapons won’t be quick.
Fox 7 (Stuart, author for Scienceline, “Why is it taking Iran so long to make a nuclear weapons? Didn’t it only take the US four years to invent them?”)  http://scienceline.org/2007/11/20/ask-fox-nuclearbombs/
According to “The Making of the Atomic Bomb” by Richard Rhodes, to
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week, took three years to produce enough properly enriched uranium for the bomb
Second, Motive – states don’t want instant recluse status
Elhefnawy 8 (Nader, B.A international relations, author books, “The Next Wave of Nuclear Proliferation”)  http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/08autumn/elhefnawy.pdf
Long-established research strongly indicates that the motivation to build nuclear weapons is more
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little as $500 million, less than the price of a modern warship
Third, No Arms Race – nuclear weapons make force comparisons irrelevant
Waltz 95 (The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate, p. 29-30)
One may believe that old American and Soviet military doctrines set the pattern that new
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ranges neither side need respond to increases in the other side’s military capabilities.
Ext. 2 – No Domino Effect
No nuclear domino effect—
a. It’s Slow—65 years since the invention of the bomb—Yet only 9 states have nukes
b. Disarm—South Africa, Belarus, and Kazakhstan all voluntarily disarmed at the same time other states were rearming, there’s no correlation
c. Prefer it—History proves our argument
That’s All Bergenas
And, proliferation pessimism is wrong—Loads of empirical data and historical records prove nuclear proliferation has a stabilizing effect
Sechser 8 (Todd S. Sechser, University of Virginia 2008 CQ Press “No”164-174)
The idea that the United States should aggressively pursue nuclear nonproliferation rests in part on
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, a more stable, peaceful, and secure world than one without.
You should base your decision calculus on empirical data only
Sechser 8 (Todd S. Sechser, University of Virginia 2008 CQ Press “No”164-174)
The historical data presented here suggest that nuclear weapons have had a sobering effect on
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the nuclear future, we must first acknowledge the lessons of the past.

Uniqueness
Global oil demand decreasing, efficiency and clean tech increasing now
Maugeri 2012 (Leonardo, Research Fellow of the Geopolitics of Energy Project at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Oil: The Next Revolution, June, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Oil-%20The%20Next%20Revolution.pdf)
Of course, it is possible that sometime in this decade a resurgence of demand
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dissemination of energy alternatives will reduce the impact of oil in global economies.
Oil’s not competitive now
Lovins 2012 (Amory, physicist, environmental scientist, writer, and Chairman/Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, Oxford MA, A Farewell to Fossil Fuels: Answering the Energy Challenge, Foreign Affairs, March/April, proquest)
U.S. gasoline demand peaked in 2007; the oil use of the
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uncompetitive even at low prices before it becomes unavailable even at high prices.
Renewable shift in electricity now
Lovins 2012 (Amory, physicist, environmental scientist, writer, and Chairman/Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, Oxford MA, A Farewell to Fossil Fuels: Answering the Energy Challenge, Foreign Affairs, March/April, proquest)
New coal and nuclear plants are so uneconomical that official U.S. energy
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within smarter grids, in markets that clear faster and serve larger areas.

Uniqueness: Global
The rest of the world is transitioning- even China will cap emissions
Lovins 2012 (Amory, physicist, environmental scientist, writer, and Chairman/Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, Oxford MA, A Farewell to Fossil Fuels: Answering the Energy Challenge, Foreign Affairs, March/April, proquest)
The United States cannot afford to keep waiting for a gridlocked Congress to act while
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States'. No treaty compelled Beijing's leadership-just enlightened self-interest.
Links: Increases Warming
Nuclear increases warming- has equivalent emissions to fossil fuels, and uranium mining causes more fossil fuel use
Mez 2012 (Dr. Lutz, Coordinator of the Berlin Centre for Caspian Region Studies at the Free University of Berlin, Nuclear energy–Any solution for sustainability and climate protection?, Energy Policy, Volume 48, September 2012, Pages 56–63, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.047)
On top of this, viewed from a systemic perspective, nuclear power plants are
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stay below 550 ppme2 CO2 within the next ∼30–40 years.”
Expanding nuclear power would require the dirtier ore
Englert, Krall and Ewing 2012 (Matthias Englert a1, Lindsay Krall a2 and Rodney C. Ewing a3
a1 Darmstadt University of Technology, Germany; englert@ianus.tu-darmstadt.de
a2 Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company, Stockholm, Sweden; lindsay.krall@skb.se
a3 The University of Michigan, USA; rodewing@umich.edu, Is nuclear fission a sustainable source of energy?, MRS Bulletin / Volume 37 / Issue 04 / April 2012 , pp 417-424, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1557/mrs.2012.6)
Scenarios for demand and consumption¶ Most studies that envision increasing nuclear power to reduce
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, but the advantages and disadvantages of each approach must be weighed carefully.
Krypton and tritium emissions cause climate change
Mez 2012 (Dr. Lutz, Coordinator of the Berlin Centre for Caspian Region Studies at the Free University of Berlin, Nuclear energy–Any solution for sustainability and climate protection?, Energy Policy, Volume 48, September 2012, Pages 56–63, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.047)
Nuclear power plants also contribute to climate change by emitting radioactive isotopes such as tritium
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and socially compatible energy technologies—especially the use of smart energy services.

Links: Renewable Tradeoff
Nuclear trades off with renewables- the grid can’t do both, investors will only pick one
Denholm et al 2012 (Paul, Ph.D. in land resources/
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Energy Policy, Volume 44, May 2012, Pages 301–311)
Nuclear power is one of the primary alternatives to renewables for reducing carbon emissions in
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together is important, and methods to increase their compatibility must be examined.

Link Outweighs Turns
Our tradeoff link is immediate- their turns are incredibly far-off- even if they win the net direction of emissions they offset immediate reductions
Clarke, 12 (Renfrey, PhD in social sciences from University of New South Wales, qualified and highly experienced editor, a journalist and a specialist in international studies, “Why nuclear is no climate change solution”, 7/28/12, http://www.greenleft.org.au/node/51697)WPish
Nuclear fission is an innately dangerous process – and the nuclear industry’s record of handling
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too. Only, it can’t be done through relying on nuclear energy.
They wouldn’t start reductions for decades- past the tipping point
Makhijani and Boyd 2010 (Arjun and Michele, electrical and nuclear engineer who is President of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research; former director of the Safe Energy Program at Physicians for Social Responsibility; Small Modular¶ Reactors¶ No Solution for the Cost, Safety, and Waste Problems¶ of Nuclear Power, http://www.psr.org/nuclear-bailout/resources/small-modular-reactors-no.pdf)
Not a climate solution¶ Efficiency and most renewable technologies¶ are already cheaper than
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safety and proliferation risks, as well as new¶ waste disposal problems.

Methane 2NC
Methane emissions are not anthropogenic and don’t cause their impact – prefer our evidence it cites international bodies of scientists
Lewis 9-25-12 (Lewis, “Arctic Methane Emissions Have Been Going on for Ages,” http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/09/25/dont_panic_arctic_mission_finds_methane_emissions_old_news/, Mike)
Scientists returning from a seaborne expedition to the Arctic say that the ongoing panic in
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effervescing," explains Professor Doktor Tina Treude, another of the expedition scientists.

Negative feedback loops solve
Voice of Russia 9-18-12 (“Methane Emission in the Arctic – a Possible Key to the Global Warming,” http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_09_18/Methane-emission-in-the-Arctic-a-possible-key-to-the-global-warming/, Mike)
That is a complicated question. Scientists who study this, and there are quite
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methanotrophic bacteria. Curiously enough they consume methane during the course of their life
, they do so because if we combine methane with oxygen we get energy.
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a situation where balance between production and consumption of methane will be reached.

Turn – the plan increases methane emissions – they cause a livestock production to shift to other countries – prefer our evidence – it comparatively outweighs methane from fossil fuels
Drovers 9-28-12 (“Cutting Livestock Greenhouse Gases Requires Effort,” http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/Cutting-livestock-greenhouse-gases-requires-effort-171594261.html?ref=261, Mike)
Regulating livestock greenhouse gas emissions could shift livestock production to unregulated, less developed countries
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said. "This negates greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the wealthy countries."
Economy Defense – Ext. 1 – No War
Decline doesn’t cause war—History proves, there’s 36 ongoing conflicts yet none of them attributed to the recession, that’s Barnett
Prefer it—Their evidence is biased by economic Stockholm syndrome
Dornbrook 10 (Reporter for the Kansas City Business Journal, Citing Brian Wesbury – Chief Economist for First Trust Advisors and Author (James, "Economist: Ongoing rebound gives reason for optimism", January 8th 2010, May 21st 2010, http://kansascity.bizjournals.com/kansascity/stories/2010/01/04/daily46.html)
People should start being more optimistic about the economy because it probably will continue rebounding
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out in March 2009 and that recovery is under way, he said.
Economic decline does not cause war
Miller 2 (economist, adjunct professor in the University of Ottawa’s Faculty of Administration, 2K2 consultant on  international development issues, former Executive Director and Senior Economist at the World Bank, 2000 (Morris, Interdisciplinary Science Reviews, “Poverty as a cause of wars?” http://www.management.uottawa.ca/miller/poverty.htm)
The question may be reformulated. Do wars spring from a popular reaction to a
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by increasing repression (thereby using one form of violence to abort another).
Globalization checks conflict
Zakaria 9 – Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard, Editor of Newsweek (Fareed, “The Secrets of Stability,” Newsweek, 12/12/09, http://www.newsweek.com/id/226425)
Political and economic stability have each reinforced the other. And the third force that
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Most have been there, done that. And they know the price.