Tournament: Gonzaga | Round: Quarters | Opponent: UMKC JW | Judge: Cheek, Cheek, Johnson-Freyd
1NC
1NC Framework
A. The aff must defend a topical plan and its implementation by the United States federal government. 

The colon means the USFG is the agent of the res
Webster’s Guide to Grammar and Writing, 2K (http://ccc.commnet.edu/grammar/marks/colon.htm)
Use of a colon before a list or an explanation that is preceded by a
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the sentence, begin the clause after the colon with a capital letter.

That excludes individual action
Black’s Law Dictionary, ’99 (Seventh Edition Ed. Bryan A. Garner (chief))
Federal government 1. A national government that exercises some degree of control over smaller political units that have surrendered some degree of power in exchange for the right to participate in national political matters.

C. Energy POLICY matters and we need policy action to address the pressing energy needs of the US and the world- Must evaluate consequences
Wirth, Gray & Podesta, very qualified, ‘3 The Future  of Energy Policy Timothy E. Wirth, C. Boyden Gray, and John D. Podesta Timothy E. Wirth is President of the United Nations Foundation and a former U.S. Senator from Colorado. C. Boyden Gray is a partner at Wilmer, Cutler & Pickering and served as Counsel to former President George H.W. Bush. John D. Podesta is Visiting Professor of Law at Georgetown University Law Center and served as Chief of Staff to former President Bill Clinton. Volume 82 • Number 4 Foreign Affairs 2003 Council on Foreign Relations
The big questions A century ago, Lord Selborne, the first lord of the
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challenges and the interests that can be mobilized for the necessary political change.
Abstract intellectualism is useless—environmental philosophers should orient themselves towards real-life problems.
Avner De-Shalit, 2k. Professor of Political Theory at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and Associate Fellow at the Oxford Centre for Environment, Ethics, and Society, Mansfield College, Oxford University. “The Environment: Between Theory and Practice,” p. 20, Questia.
So animal rights philosophers have been missing the chance to find a way to many
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philosophers who suggest this idea, and scorn all such claims as nonsense.

Policymakers will inevitably make predictions—the only question is whether they’re based off of explicit or implicit threats. Failure to make predictions based off of explicit risk calculation guarantees poor decisionmaking.
Fitzsimmons, 07  (Michael, defense analyst in Washington DC. “The Problem of Uncertainty in Strategic Planning”, Survival, Winter 06/07)
In defence of prediction  Uncertainty is not a new phenomenon for strategists. Clausewitz knew
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reinvigorate their efforts in the messy but indispensable business of predicting the future. 

Scenario planning is vital to create appropriate risk assessments
Kurasawa, 04 (Professor of Sociology, York University of Toronto, Fuyuki, Constellations Volume 11, No 4, 2004)
A radically postmodern line of thinking, for instance, would lead us to believe
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early warning is making its way into preventive action on the global stage.  
Nuclear war comes first
Kateb, Professor of Politics at Princeton University, ‘92 (George, “The Inner Ocean” p 111-112)
Schell's work attempts to force on us an acknowledgment that sounds far-fetched and
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hence as morally allowed, perhaps enjoined, to take the appropriate preserving step

1NC T
Interpretation-
Restrictions are direct and legal
Law.com (“Restrict,” http://dictionary.law.com/Default.aspx?selected=1835&bold=restrict)
The noun ―restriction means direct, on-face limitation. restriction
n. any limitation on activity, by statute, regulation or contract provision.
AND
property which are recorded and incorporated into the title of each owner.3
“On” means directly targeted
World English Dictionary 2009 (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/on?s=t)
— prep 1. in contact or connection with the surface of; at the
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performed upon or relayed through the medium of: what's on the television?
“Energy production” means electricity made from the energy
US Code 2012 (Title 42 › Chapter 149 › Subchapter XIII › § 16491, http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/16491)
42 USC § 16491 - Energy production incentives
(a) In general A State may provide to any entity— (1
AND
or to otherwise impair, restrain, or discriminate, against interstate commerce.
Several violations- 1. They affect the LICENSER, not the LICENSEE of the nuclear plant, 2. They only CHANGE A REVIEW in the licensing process, not REMOVE THE LICENSING REQUIREMENT, 3. “Circuit decision splits” have no legal meaning, 4. They’re extra-T because they affect STORAGE FACILITIES.
Briggs 2012 (Alexander T., Managing the Line Between Nuclear Power and Nuclear Terror: Considering the Threat of Terrorism as an Environmental Impact,  J.D. Candidate 2012, Seton Hall University School of Law; B.A. 2005, Pittsburg State University, 8 Seton Hall Cir. Rev. 223, lexis)
In 1974, Congress established the NRC to promote the civilian use of nuclear power
AND
an EIS for a 

1NC CP
The United States Congress should pass legislation removing any requirement that acts of terrorism against nuclear power plants be evaluated in Environmental Impact Statements.
The CP alone is key to solve the aff
Leege 2012 (David, J.D. candidate, May 2012, Catholic University of America, Columbus School of Law; M.S. Engineering Science, Naval Postgraduate School, 2006; B.S. Materials Engineering, Iowa State University, 2003, PREVENTING ATOMS FOR PEACE FROM BECOMING ATOMS OF TERROR: THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT IS NOT A VEHICLE FOR ADDRESSING TERRORISM, 61 Cath. U.L. Rev. 527)
There are three ways to resolve the circuit split regarding the inclusion of terrorism in
AND
, each of which has a different approach to protecting against terrorism. n265

1NC Elections
Romney wins now – Studies prove
Adelmann 9-11-12 (Bob, “CU Professors Predict Romney Win; Intrade Foresees Obama Win,” http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/item/12803-cu-professors-predict-romney-win-intrade-foresees-obama-win, Mike)
A study by two University of Colorado professors released last month predicts that President Obama
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[here] drops from 78% to the low 60s this year.”

Public is firmly behind expansion of nuclear power—see US nuclear plants as safe, environmentally friendly, and technologically advanced.
Bisconti, ’12 [By Ann Stouffer Bisconti, Ph.D., President, Bisconti Research Inc.
High Expectations for Nuclear Energy Perspective on Public Opinion, May 2012 prepared for the Nuclear Energy Institutehttp://www.nei.org/resourcesandstats/documentlibrary/ publications/perspectiveonpublicopinion/perspective-on-public-opinion-may-2012/
High expectations for nuclear energy and favorable perceptions of nuclear power plant benefits and safety
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public supports loan guarantees for the development of these low-carbon sources.

Mobilizing the base key to the election
Reeve 6/12 (Elspeth, “Base Diving: Obama and Romney Both Have Enthusiasm Gaps”, Atlantic Wire, Jun 12, 2012, http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/06/base-diving-obama-and-romney-both-have-enthusiasm-gaps/53437/#)//KR
Independents don't like Mitt Romney personally, and they don't think Obama has great ideas
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the base, both candidates are struggling right now, for several reasons.
Obama win is critical to clean energy transition – Romney will only support oil and gas.
Taylor 8/23/12 (Heather Taylor, director of the Natural Resources Defense Council's Action Fund, Innovation or More of the Same?, AUGUST 23, 2012, http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/sizing-up-romney-and-obama-ene.php)
Mitt Romney released his energy plan in New Mexico on Thursday, and while it
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cuts clean energy investments 90 percent, down to just $1 billion.
Now is key to curbing climate change – wind power sends an international signal
Global Wind Energy Council ’12 (“Wind Energy Must be Key Climate Change Solution,” http://www.gwec.net/index.php?id=136, Mike)
Climate change is now generally accepted to be the greatest environmental threat facing the world
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and the finance sector need for wind power to reach its full potential.
Warming guarantees multiple positive feedbacks triggering extinction, adaptation cannot solve
Tickell ‘8 (Oliver, Climate Researcher, “On a Planet 4C Hotter, All We Can Prepare for is Extinction,” The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange, Mike)
We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming, Bob Watson told
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warming caused by human emissions could propel us towards a similar hothouse Earth. 

1NC Solvency
Prior court decisions doing exactly what they want to do in the context of Cold War trauma prove their method accomplishes nothing
Leege 2012 (David, J.D. candidate, May 2012, Catholic University of America, Columbus School of Law; M.S. Engineering Science, Naval Postgraduate School, 2006; B.S. Materials Engineering, Iowa State University, 2003, PREVENTING ATOMS FOR PEACE FROM BECOMING ATOMS OF TERROR: THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT IS NOT A VEHICLE FOR ADDRESSING TERRORISM, 61 Cath. U.L. Rev. 527)
Several years later, the Ninth Circuit amplified its view of the reasonably foreseeable requirement
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of nuclear war did not need to be considered in the EA. n88
The aff would move the specter of terrorism to the back of your mind to fester as the anxiety they read impacts to.
Leege 2012 (David, J.D. candidate, May 2012, Catholic University of America, Columbus School of Law; M.S. Engineering Science, Naval Postgraduate School, 2006; B.S. Materials Engineering, Iowa State University, 2003, PREVENTING ATOMS FOR PEACE FROM BECOMING ATOMS OF TERROR: THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT IS NOT A VEHICLE FOR ADDRESSING TERRORISM, 61 Cath. U.L. Rev. 527)
Applying this standard, the Ninth Circuit determined "that it was unreasonable for the
AND
the NRC with instructions to consider acts of terrorism in its analysis. n129

The Third Circuit ruling DID NOT SAY TERRORISM SHOULDN’T BE EVALUATED, merely that they didn’t have to give a report on plane crashes into the plants. The REASON the court gave was that the resources of that investigation would TRADE OFF WITH SECURING AGAINST TERRORISM. They reinforce anxiety way more
Leege 2012 (David, J.D. candidate, May 2012, Catholic University of America, Columbus School of Law; M.S. Engineering Science, Naval Postgraduate School, 2006; B.S. Materials Engineering, Iowa State University, 2003, PREVENTING ATOMS FOR PEACE FROM BECOMING ATOMS OF TERROR: THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT IS NOT A VEHICLE FOR ADDRESSING TERRORISM, 61 Cath. U.L. Rev. 527)
G. New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection v. NRC¶ In July 2005
AND
other assigned functions to assure the safety and security of nuclear facilities." n147
The plan would result in an independent and secret Homeland Security Review- that would turn every decision into a possible “9/11 trauma moment”
Briggs 2012 (Alexander T., Managing the Line Between Nuclear Power and Nuclear Terror: Considering the Threat of Terrorism as an Environmental Impact,  J.D. Candidate 2012, Seton Hall University School of Law; B.A. 2005, Pittsburg State University, 8 Seton Hall Cir. Rev. 223, lexis)
3. Institute a Homeland Security Impact Statement¶ Just as NEPA requires federal agencies
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foreseeable environmental impacts, regardless of their independent causes, would therefore remain.
The plan EXCLUDES the public from deliberation on the risk of terrorism ensuring the debate is controlled by elites that manufacture risks- they affirm a risk society controlled by neocons
Briggs 2012 (Alexander T., Managing the Line Between Nuclear Power and Nuclear Terror: Considering the Threat of Terrorism as an Environmental Impact,  J.D. Candidate 2012, Seton Hall University School of Law; B.A. 2005, Pittsburg State University, 8 Seton Hall Cir. Rev. 223, lexis)
C. A Terrorism Assessment will Endanger the Public¶ "The public aspect of
AND
prohibits the public from accessing the information necessary to participate in this dialogue.

Only public deliberation moderates terrorist threats in the public realm
Michael Ignatieff, Carr professor of human rights at Harvard, 2004 Lesser Evils p. 18-19
To insist that justified exercises of coercion can be defined as a lesser evil is
AND
to our fellow citizens and submit to their judgment as to their correctness. 

Psychoanalysis constructs a power relation between the analyst and the patient that seeks to resolve repressed anxieties – this replicates managerial violence by submitting the patient to the will of a Master-Signifier – it turns the case because it means that the repressive measures the 1AC describes would just be re-appropriated towards other anxieties.
Milchman and Rosenberg 4 (Alan teaches in the department of Political Science of Queens College of the City University of New York, Alan is Associate Professor of Philosophy at Queens College of the City University of New York. http://www.academyanalyticarts.org/milch&rosen.htm#Rosenberg)
My point is not that everything is bad, but that everything is dangerous,
AND
taken to be universal, and as such, it is rarely questioned.

Turns the case- the psychoanalytic tendency to create provisions for self-actualization suppress movements of liberation
Milchman and Rosenberg 4 (Alan teaches in the department of Political Science of Queens College of the City University of New York, Alan is Associate Professor of Philosophy at Queens College of the City University of New York. http://www.academyanalyticarts.org/milch&rosen.htm#Rosenberg)
For Foucault, the repressive hypothesis itself arose with the modern deployment of sexuality.
AND
Foucault, are linked to the confessional practices of ancient and medieval Christianity. 

Psychoanalysis loses reference to actual politics. It’s attempt to access change dissolves into this thin air.
McClean Lecturer in Philosophy, Molloy College, New York and Rutgers University, in ‘1
[David E., “The Cultural Left and the Limits of Social Hope”, Presented at the 2001 Annual Conference of the Society for the Advancement of American Philosophy, http://www.american-philosophy.org/archives/past_conference_programs/pc2001/Discussion%20papers/david_mcclean.htm]
There is a lot of philosophical prose on the general subject of social justice.
AND
, lucky to have taken this decision before it had become too late.

Psychological determinism fails to explain society because it over simplifies.
deRoche, Dept. of Anthropology & Sociology @ U of Cape Breton, 2K3
(John E. Psychological Reductionism: A “Model” Essay Illustrating Citation and Referencing Technique, faculty.uccb.ns.ca/cdr/Psych%20Reductionism.pdf]
According to one basic reference work in sociology, the phenomenon of “psychological reductionism
AND
of flour, a bottle of water, and a basket of tomatoes. 

Psycho-analysis is not useful for explaining society – it obscures an understanding of material conditions

Gibson, Lecturer in the Child Guidance Clinic @ U of Cape Town,  91
[Kerry, Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation, Seminar No. 4, http://www.csvr.org.za/papers/papgib.htm]
The explanation I have offered so far may, however, rightfully expose me to
AND
the State, than about the State itself as a material social entity.

Psychology is not the root cause of security scenarios – can manage conflict in important degrees

Blight, Watson Institute for International Studies Professor, Professional Psychologist, 1987[James, “Toward a Policy-Relevant Psychology of Avoiding Nuclear War," American psychologist, vol 42, issue 1, JSTOR]
The central, salient assumption of all nuclear depth  psychologists is that our "thinking
AND
record whereas the clinical diagnosis and prescriptions  of the depth psychologists do not.

Nuclear Power will not spread globally- zero risk of the advantage
Kessides 2012 (Ioannis N. Kessides, The World Bank, Development Research Group, The future of the nuclear industry reconsidered: Risks, uncertainties, and continued promise, Energy Policy, Volume 48, September 2012, Pages 185–208, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.05.008)
Throughout its history, nuclear power has been controversial and susceptible to instinctive rejection.
AND
reactors would simply be unsuitable for most developing countries with small electric grids.

2NC
Topicality
(A2 W/M)
They alter a process with no binding implications- the EIS is meaningless
Schifman 2010 (Ben, J.D. Candidate 2011, Columbia Law School; Winner, 2010 Columbia Journal of Environmental Law Notes Competition, The Limits of NEPA: Consideration of the Impacts of Terrorism in Environmental Impact Statements for Nuclear Facilities, 35 Colum. J. Envtl. L. 373, lexis)
NEPA was signed into law on January 1, 1970 and is viewed as the
AND
process and procedural requirements, have led to many environmentally beneficial outcomes. n22
They DON’T REMOVE ANYTHING AT ALL- “circuit splits” have no legal value
Schifman 2010 (Ben, J.D. Candidate 2011, Columbia Law School; Winner, 2010 Columbia Journal of Environmental Law Notes Competition, The Limits of NEPA: Consideration of the Impacts of Terrorism in Environmental Impact Statements for Nuclear Facilities, 35 Colum. J. Envtl. L. 373, lexis)
It is likely that legal challenges to these plants will arise under the National Environmental
AND
are split as to  [*376]  whether such analysis is required. n15
A2 C/I
A/T “Licensing = Restriction”
Seriously- they don’t even change the thing they think they do
Schifman 2010 (Ben, J.D. Candidate 2011, Columbia Law School; Winner, 2010 Columbia Journal of Environmental Law Notes Competition, The Limits of NEPA: Consideration of the Impacts of Terrorism in Environmental Impact Statements for Nuclear Facilities, 35 Colum. J. Envtl. L. 373, lexis)
While explicitly departing from the analysis of the Ninth Circuit in Mothers for Peace,
AND
risk do not alone trigger a duty to perform a NEPA analysis. n130
Come on now- the NRC is ignoring the “mandate”
Farber 2011 (David A., Sho Sato Professor of Law and Chair of the Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, Uncertainty, 99 Geo. L.J. 901, lexis)
2. Risk Analysis's Blind Spot¶ Risk analysis requires that risks be quantified.
AND
the effect of dismissing uncertainty from discussion and limiting consideration to quantifiable risks.
 

They do not solve their nuclear terrorism anxiety arguments- The Ninth Circuit court rejects worst case scenarios of terrorism as red herring fallacies instead environmental impact statements only analyze environmental harms
Alexander Briggs 2012 (Managing the Line Between Nuclear Power and Nuclear Terror: Considering the Threat of Terrorism as an Environmental Impact,  J.D. Candidate 2012, Seton Hall University School of Law; B.A. 2005, Pittsburg State University, 8 Seton Hall Cir. Rev. 223, lexis)
Having addressed the Supreme Court’s causation standard, the Ninth Circuit then assessed the remaining
AND
account the potential environmental impact of a terrorist attack on a nuclear facility.

A2 Public deliberation can’t happen
2nd piece of leege evidence (last line) the 9th circuit ruled that they have to disclose that information-if they overturn it then the secrtet DHS would emerge and create a rightwing d/a to their openness arguments

EIS key deliberation
The EIS process is key to deliberation- empirics prove—also proves that EIS are made public—gives us UQ for our DHS turns
Schifman 2010 (Ben, J.D. Candidate 2011, Columbia Law School; Winner, 2010 Columbia Journal of Environmental Law Notes Competition, The Limits of NEPA: Consideration of the Impacts of Terrorism in Environmental Impact Statements for Nuclear Facilities, 35 Colum. J. Envtl. L. 373, lexis)
If a FONSI is inappropriate, then an EIS is required. An EIS is
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opposition to environmentally damaging projects, which can indirectly reduce environmental impacts. n43

Public deliberation about terrorism is key to solve it
Levine et al 5 (Peter, Archon Fung, Gastil, John, “Future Direction for Public Deliberation” Journal of Public Deliveration vol 1
https://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/bitstream/handle/1773/15533/Levine1.pdf?sequence=1
Another issue that might lend itself to global dialogue is international terrorism. There¶
AND
policies best address the threat of global terrorism and the other issues underlying it

This education is uniquely important because post 9-11 responses to terror makes some government violence inevitable – the only way to ensure that violence doesn’t escalate out of control is by rejecting the impulse of utopianism and learning to debate about the consequences of political adoption
Michael Ignatieff, Carr professor of human rights at Harvard, 2004 Lesser Evils p. 18-19
To insist that justified exercises of coercion can be defined as a lesser evil is
AND
to our fellow citizens and submit to their judgment as to their correctness. 

Extremism Cards
This moderation of extremist politics prevents the global War on Terror from spiraling into either anarchy or tyranny
Michael Ignatieff, Carr professor of human rights at Harvard, 2004 Lesser Evils p. xv-4
The third chapter, "The Weakness of the Strong," seeks to explain why
AND
the extent of country and the number comprehended under the same government.4 

Extremism Turn
C. Polarized extremism when combined with an absence of democratic accountability is the cause of history’s worst atrocities
Michael Ignatieff, Carr professor of human rights at Harvard, 2004 Lesser Evils p. 65-6
This is not to deny that the Weimar constitution suffered from weaknesses. It was
AND
sustain the unity necessary to take firm measures against violence at both extremes.

Psychoanalysis 

Psychoanalysis loses reference to actual politics. It’s attempt to access change dissolves into this thin air.
McClean Lecturer in Philosophy, Molloy College, New York and Rutgers University, in ‘1
[David E., “The Cultural Left and the Limits of Social Hope”, Presented at the 2001 Annual Conference of the Society for the Advancement of American Philosophy, http://www.american-philosophy.org/archives/past_conference_programs/pc2001/Discussion%20papers/david_mcclean.htm]
There is a lot of philosophical prose on the general subject of social justice.
AND
, lucky to have taken this decision before it had become too late.

counts for the historical  record whereas the clin

1NR quarters

CP

Even if the courts are just thinking about acting it still provides cover- This answers any delay claims
Grant 3 ( [Douglas L., Professor, William S. Boyd School of Law, UNLV
 “Interstate Water Allocation Compacts,” University of Colorado Law Review, winter]
Just as states would have negotiated few, if any, boundary and water compacts
AND
defense possible to Nebraska' claims, there is always uncertainty in litigation." 405

Court action provides cover
Heise, 00   [Michael, Professor of Law, Case Western Reserve University  “Education and the Constitution: Shaping each other and the next century: Preliminary Thoughts on the Virtues of Passive Dialogue,” Akron law Review, 34 Akron L. Rev. 73]
Professor Paul Tractenberg, long active in the New Jersey school finance litigation, 81
AND
what a majority of its citizens disfavor before judicial credibility is undermined. 84
Justifies Permutation Do Both which provides political cover and solves the link to the NB
Garrett and Stutz  05 [Robert T., and Terrence, Dallas Morning News Staff  “Justices to decide if overhaul needed after bills fail in Legislature,” August 19, 2005, http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/texassouthwest/legislature/schoolfinance/stories/082005dntexsession.8bd31b4a.html]
That could foreshadow the court's response to a chief argument by state attorneys – that
AND
must be done, which allows politicians to say their hands are tied." 

1NR Elections 

Appoc Rhetoric-----

Apocalyptic rhetoric is critical to effective solutions to climate change – combining Apocalyptic rhetoric with Utopian solutions like the plan is critical to developing and implementing solutions to warming.
Kamminga, IR @ Groningen, 8
(Menno, "The Ethics of Climate politics: four modes of moral discourse," Environmental politics 17(4), Informa) [Elliot]
The separate importance of prophetic discourse for climate ethics seems clear from the above treatment
AND
and thereby stress desirable, even if not very realistic, human possibilities.
Framing climate change and energy policy through the lenses of public polices are necessary to generate macro and micro change- debate is a unique opportunity to enlighten warming nay-sayers.
Matthew C. Nisbet, 8- ’10 (Professor of Communication, American University and AB in Government from Dartmouth College. Communicating Climate Change: Why Frames Matter for Public Engagement, Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 51:2, 12-23)
U.S. presidents, especially newly elected ones, are often given discretion
AND
a reexamination of the assumptions that have traditionally informed climate change communication efforts.
Scientific Consensus Based on Climate Models and Observational Data That Warming is Real and Anthropogenic
By Joe Romm on Aug 28, 2012 at 12:29 pm OE ROMM is a Fellow at American Progress and is the editor of Climate Progress “Meteorological Society: Warming Is ‘Unequivocal’, We’re The ‘Dominant Cause’, We Need ‘Rapid Reduction’ Of CO2”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/28/757991/meteorological-society-warming-is-unequivocal-were-the-dominant-cause-we-need-rapid-reduction-of-co2/
The American Meteorological Society has updated and strengthened its statement on global warming.¶ Here
AND
, amplifying the impact of human-induced increases in other greenhouse gases….
Science is the opposite of domination – scientific knowledge liberates and improves lives.
Bronner 04 Stephen Eric Bronner, Professor of Political Science at Rutgers University, 2004, Reclaiming the Enlightenment: Toward a Politics of Radical Engagement, p. 21-23
Something will always be missing: freedom will never become fully manifest in reality.
AND
the contrary: progress became meaningful only with reference to real liv¬ing individuals. 

At: Indicts of Impacts----
Peer Review key for climate studies
Washington Post 7-30-12 (“So-Called Blockbuster Climate Change Studies Prove Little,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/so-called-blockbuster-climate-change-studies-prove-little/2012/07/30/gJQAZZNMKX_blog.html, Mike)
Over the weekend, two groups released so-called “game-changing”
AND
have been confirmed in multiple subsequent studies and stood the test of time.
Romney will win now – polls oversample democrats, independents favor Romney and GOP enthusiasm
Talgo 9/16/12 (Tyler Talgo, September 16, 2012, Why Romney Will Win The Election, http://www.neontommy.com/news/2012/09/why-romney-will-win-election)
It was also understood at the beginning of the election season that this race would
AND
percent, compared to only 33.3 percent who consider themselves Democrats.
Romney will win – Rasmussen poll proves.
Chambers 9/15/12 (Mitt Romney victory likely due to electoral college landscape, BY: DEAN CHAMBERS, SEPTEMBER 15, 2012, http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-victory-likely-due-to-electoral-college-landscape)
The latest of the extremely accurate Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll released today indicates
AND
39 electoral votes and adding them puts Romney up to 219 electoral votes.
Err towards Romney – close race, but tie goes to him.
Bomboy 9/15/12 (A tie is as good as a win: Romney and the Electoral College, Scott Bomboy, September 15, 2012, http://articles.philly.com/2012-09-15/news/33845064_1_electoral-votes-votes-by-congressional-district-electoral-college)
The chances of a tied presidential election in the Electoral College seem as remote as
AND
became 538 - an even number that can be split exactly in half.

At: Impact Defense

1% risk of warming outweighs all their turns/disads
Strom Professor of Emeritus Planetary Sciences at U. Arizona ‘7 (Robert, Former Director of Space Imagery Center of NASA, “Hot House: Global Climate Change and the Human Condition,” SpringerLink, pg. 246, Mike)
Keep in mind that the current consequences of global warming discussed in previous chapters are
AND
more clearly define what awaits us. The time for action is now.

Warming destroys massive numbers of species making extinction inevitable
GUY (Dir., Center for Natural Resources Mgm’t and Env’tal Science, Hanoi Univ.) 9/99
(Professor Vo, “Impact on Vietnam,” www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo/floor0/briefing/vietnam/impact4.htm )
Biodiversity, vital for human survival, is at risk from climate change. Any
AND
hundred. Biological species extinction and biodiversity degradation are irreversible losses to humanity.   

Tournament: ISU | Round: 6 | Opponent: Whitman MM | Judge:
1NC-
Neoliberalism propagates powerful corporations that exploit both laws and the environment – their scientific consensus becomes manipulated by the market
Nixon 9 (Rob, Professor of English at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “Neoliberalism, Slow Violence, and the Environmental Picaresque” MFS Modern Fiction Studies, Volume 55, Number 3, Fall 2009, muse)
The power of Animal's People flows largely from ...
The varieties of biological citizenship that emerged in the aftermaths¶ of Bhopal and Chernobyl were, in certain ways, distinct, as¶ were the media responses. 

NEOLIB RESULTS IN A DEATH DRIVE THAT CREATE COLLECTIVE SUICIDE
Santos in 2k3 (Boaventura de Sousa, director of the Center for Social Studies at the University of Coimbra, EUROZINE, COLLECTIVE SUICIDE OR GLOBALIZATION FROM BELOW, http://www.eurozine.com/article/2003-03-26-santos-en.html)
Sacrificial genocide arises from a totalitarian ...
world's poorest countries for four years. 

The Alternative is to use this academic space to stand in opposition to neoliberalism.
It’s a prereq to the aff-
Macneil and Paterson 12 (Robert and Matthew, School of Political Studies, University of Ottawa, Neoliberal climate policy: from market fetishism to the developmental state, http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09644016.2012.651900) kc
First, in the context of our ...
preserve economic competitiveness.

2NC-
They subordinate environmental protection to the will of capital
Brand 12 (Ulrich, Professor of International Politics at the New Institute Germany. “Beautiful Green World: On the myth of a green economy.” Luxemburg argumente Nr. 3, 2nd volume. ISSN 2193-5831)
The green economy, however, is not a¶ victory for all but...
 but on a fundamental transformation to a¶ solidaristic mode of production and life, in which people and¶ nature are no longer just the cheapest possible resources.

Market-centered approaches dictate educational norms- turns policy education and only the alternative resolves it
CALLAGHAN IN 4 (KAREN, PROF OF SOCIOLOGY @ BARRY, GLOBALIZATION WITH A HUMAN FACE)
Within this context, the market plays a central ....
education has become exceedingly narrow.  P66-67 

Ontology DA – neoliberal rationality and the invocation of the state has created an epistemic shift in thinking based on the calculation and economization of its subjects – prevents examination of neolib’s foundations
Fikret Adaman and Yahya Madra, Bogazici University Department of Economics. Understanding Neoliberalism as Economization: The Case of the Ecology. 2012. Muse
Consider, for instance, a most recent example: while ...
itself ¶ theoretically and practically in the context of the government of the ecology. 

And, Neolib is the root cause of climate vulnerability – the aff is just a change at the margins that doesn’t address the problem
Gill and Klein Senior Research Fellows for the Stockholm Environment Institute ’11 (Tom and Richard, “Climate and Development Spotlight: Neoliberalism and Climate Adaptation,” http://www.sei-international.org/news-and-media/2053, Mike
An article in the journal’s latest issue is the first systematic, peer-reviewed ....
failure to cope with events like the 2010 floods in Pakistan may well pose challenges to their legitimacy.”

Tournament: ISU | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
Off

1. Interpretation—The aff should have to defend immediate implementation of the plan
   a. Resolved means definitive action—not a delay
   Dictionary.com no date (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/resolved)
    “Resolved: to come to a definite or earnest decision about; determine”

b. Should implies a swift obligation to act
American Heritage® Dictionary ’96  1996, 1992 by Houghton Mifflin Company, www.dictionary.com, accessed 4/2/01
should (shd)    v. aux. Past tense of shall.
1.Used to express obligation or duty: You should send her a note. 

2. Violation—The aff will claim the plan happens in the future or that they don’t have to defend when the plan happens

3. Prefer our interpretation
a. Neg Offense—Time sensitive arguments are key to every piece of offense we can generate—ESPECIALLY on topics prone to the “Obama Effect,” destroys all neg ground
b. Most predictable—Any other interpretation is unpredictable because the aff can potentially pick any future date for implementation—this justifies “Do the aff when Obama is out of office,” which makes it impossible to research or engage them
c. Their abuse claims will be the counterplan—if we win the counterplan is theoretically legitimate you have to default to our interpretation because it means the aff skewed legitimate neg ground.

Voter for fairness, education, and jurisdiction.

T Should be viewed through an offense/defense paradigm because it creates a race to the middle and solves judge intervention—especially important when defining the topic at the beginning of the season.

Off
Obama will win- most recent polls and momentum are on his side
Silver 9/28/2012 (Nate, Genius, writer for FiveThirtyEight, now under the New York Times, The blog is devoted to rigorous analysis of politics, polling, public affairs, sports, science and culture, largely through statistical means, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/28/sept-27-the-impact-of-the-47-percent/)
Thursday’s Polls¶ What we can say with more confidence is that Mr. Romney
AND
Nov. 6 forecast, up from 81.9 percent on Wednesday.
Renewables NOT popular—multiple reasons
 -climate change lost its political charge,
 -Econ fears outweigh any anti-climate change or pro renewables attitudes
 -current econ climate makes subsidizing RE politically unpalatable
 -New shale gas discoveries are the “knock out blow” to RE
-more political support to spend money adapting to climate change—not for mitigation strategies.
von Schirach, ’12 Grim Prospects For Renewable Energy In The US – Subsidies Politically Unpopular – Natural Gas A Much Cheaper Alternative – USG Should Focus On RandD, By Paolo von Schirach As a consultant, Paolo focuses on energy, innovation and sustainable development. He has been Director of Communications and Senior Research Fellow at the Atlantic Council of the United States, in Washington, DC; Deputy Director of the Global Security Project and more recently Adjunct Professor in the Graduate Program of the School of Foreign Service, (MSFS), at Georgetown University in Washington, DC. Paolo von Schirach is a regular contributor to Swiss Radio and a frequent guest lecturer at the Foreign Service Institute (FSI) of the US Department of State. http://schirachreport.com/index.php/2012/05/11/grim-prospects-for-renewable-energy-in-the-us-subsidies-politically-unpopular-natural-gas-a-much-cheaper-alternative-usg-should-focus-on-rd/May 11, 2012
WASHINGTON – American enthusiasm for renewable energy, not too deep to begin with,
AND
Gas is still a fossil fuel, but it is the cleanest around.
 Base Mobilization key to winning the election—empirically proven for incumbents
WSJ 12 (The Wall Street Journal “As in 2004, energizing the base a key to victory” 5/22/12 http://www.myfoxdfw.com/story/18583004/as-in-2004-energizing-the-base-a-key-to-victory#ixzz1MekSBwU) KY
President Barack Obama does not often dwell on similarities to his predecessor, George W
AND
But 2004 suggests that both sides' strategies may start with mobilizing the core.

Obama win key to US-Russia relations – Romney’s agenda is belligerent and controversial.
Reichardt 7/9. (Adam is the Managing Editor of New Eastern Europe, “Considering Russia in the Voting Booth,” New Eastern Europe, 2012, http://www.neweasterneurope.eu/node/382)

Obama’s policy towards Russia is easier to gauge, since there has already been four years of his administration to judge. As Ross Wilson noted, “President Obama has a four-year record with Russia to defend – i.e., the reset policy and the benefits that the administration will argue have accrued from its more pragmatic and less confrontational approach to relations with Moscow.”
President Obama’s policy of reset was indeed a glimmer of hope for US-Russian relations at the start of 2009, but that glimmer has all but faded. The case of Syria and Iran are clear examples of the real challenges America still faces when engaging with Russia on global issues and the Obama campaign will most likely avoid referring to the “reset” by name.
“Though the Administration will not use the expression ‘reset’ too much, it can be expected to continue to emphasize pragmatism and to implement that line if the president is re-elected,” Wilson believes.
Obama’s opponent, Mitt Romney, has been less clear about his position on relations
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no Cold War, but Russia is a geopolitical foe in that regard."
The Romney campaign’s web site reveals several areas of focus for Russia, none of them discuss active engagement, but rather focus on taking tougher stances with Russia, including renegotiating the New Start Treaty, decreasing Europe’s energy reliance on Russia, building stronger relations with Central Asia, as well as supporting Russia’s civil society.
Surprisingly, the last one, engaging Russia’s civil society, could be the most
AND
in the opposition – it could hurt the entire goal of this platform.
Having the American government play an active role in the changes happening inside Russia could be detrimental to US-Russian relations. Many Russians believe that changes within their own country should be driven from the Russian society. Any outside interference would hurt the legitimacy of the Russian opposition and cause the Russian elite to become even more suspicious, and perhaps even hostile, to the intentions of American foreign policy.

Extinction
Collins and Rojansky 10 – * U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation from 1997 to 2001, AND deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment (8/18/10, James F. Collins, Matthew Rojansky, Foreign Policy, “Why Russia Matters,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=viewandid=41409,)
A year and a half after Barack Obama hit the "reset" button with
AND
to maintain relations with Russia. And good relations would be even better.

Off
The United State Federal Government should ban all financial energy incentives including Master Limited Partnerships.
Energy subsidies must be eliminated to spur innovation and become competitive in the market
Phillips, president of Americans for Prosperity, the nation’s leading free-market grass-roots organization and From, Illinois state director of Americans for Prosperity, the nation’s leading free-market grass-roots organization, 6-28-12 (Tim Phillips and David From, “Eliminate Energy Subsidies”, State Journal Register, http://www.sj-r.com/opinions/x1762345964/Tim-Phillips-and-David-From-Eliminate-energy-subsidies?zc_p=0)

Obviously, it’s time for lawmakers to realize that if a new technology truly has
AND
their professed free-market principles and get rid of these special giveaways.
Politics is a net benefit
Randazzo, ’12 INCENTIVES AT EVERY TURN By Ryan Randazzo, Posted 5/6/2012 The Arizona Republic http://www.usatoday.com/USCP/PNI/Business/2012-05-06-PNI0506biz-subsidiesPNIBrd_ST_U.htm
Amid all the debate regarding subsidies, political polar opposites have found common ground calling
AND
), you need to work together with people that are aligned with you."

Off
The United States federal government should expand eligibility for Master Limited Partnerships for the production of wind power after the conclusion of the November 6, 2012 United States presidential election.

Competition is established via our Topicality argument and Disads.

Off
Natural gas is dominating the energy sector now – abundant shale gas supplies
Conrad 8/9/12 (Roger S. Conrad is editor of Utility Forecaster, August 9, 2012, Natural Gas Prices Tick Up On Hot Weather, But Investors Shouldn't Expect Much More Upside, http://seekingalpha.com/article/795201-natural-gas-prices-tick-up-on-hot-weather-but-investors-shouldn-t-expect-much-more-upside)
Four months ago, natural gas bottomed out at a 10-year low of
AND
return to even last summer's price range of $4 to $5.
Wind power displaces natural gas – DOE report proves.
Barber -08 (Jeff Barber, Global Power Report, May 15, 2008, US could produce 20% of its power from wind by 2030, says DOE report, Lexis)
The US could reach the "ambitious" goal of obtaining 20% of its
AND
produced on US soil or imported from any friendly nation with production capabilities."
Increased natural gas reduces the risk of global resource conflict.
Hunt -12 (Gary Hunt is President, Scalable Growth Strategy Advisors, an independent energy technology and information services adviser and a partner in Tech and Creative Labs, 15 February 2012, How the US Shale Boom Will Change the World, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/How-the-US-Shale-Boom-Will-Change-the-World.html)
Abundant energy reduces global conflict Abundant and evenly distributed energy sources (natural gas) reduce the intensity of competition for new energy sources of New Core countries like India and China. Bringing this new fuel to domestic markets will have a higher priority than energy adventurism (China’s search for energy in Africa.) It also allows important global players to focus on growing their economies rather than growing their militaries to insure themselves against resource scarcity.
Resource tension causes nuclear conflict with Russia and China – the impact is extinction
Henderson 7, Besline Research CEO/President/consultant, (Bill, CounterCurrents.org, February 24, “Climate Change, Peak Oil, and Nuclear War”, http://www.countercurrents.org/cc-henderson240207.htm, 7/9/08)
Countercurrents.org By Bill Henderson  Damocles had one life threatening sword hanging by a
AND
to extinction for humanity and much of what we now recognize as nature. 

Economy
Plan can’t solve the economy
Post, 11 (Willem, SME New Jersey Institute of Technology, MSME Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, MBA, University of Connecticut. P.E. Connecticut. Consulting Engineer and Project Manager, “Wind Energy Does Little to Reduce CO2 Emissions”, 9/8/11, http://theenergycollective.com/node/64492) WP
Within federal, state and local governments tens of thousands of people are busying themselves promoting renewables by with holding meetings and public hearings, preparing studies, writing reports, energy plans, laws, rules and regulations, monitoring projects for compliance, etc.¶ Outside of government wind turbine vendors (Siemens, GE, Vestas, Iberdrola, etc,), project developers/owners, financiers managing tax shelters, trade organizations, etc., are busying themselves popularizing wind energy as saving the planet from global warming with PR campaigns that claim there would be significant reductions of fossil fuel consumption and CO2 reductions/kWh, that capital costs/MW would decrease, and that wind energy costs/kWh would be at grid parity in the near future. These claims have largely not been realized. ¶ Global Warming is a Given: A just-released report from EIA shows the actual world energy consumption data and projected consumption data for the 1990 to 2035 period. The report shows world energy consumption is estimated to increase from 505 quads in 2008 to 770 quads in 2035, a 52% increase. The biggest part of the increase is by (non-OECD nations + Asia).¶ http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/world.cfm¶ See spreadsheet associated with figure 12¶ World energy consumption by fuel (quadrillion Btu) ¶ Liquids: From 173.2 in 2010 to 225.1 in 2035; 30% more¶ Natural gas: 116.7 to 174.7; 50% more¶ Coal: 149.4 to 209.1; 49% more¶ Nuclear: 27.6 to 51.2; 86% more¶ Renewables: 55.2 to 109.5; 98% more¶ Renewables fraction of total consumption: From 10.6% in 2010 to 15.2% in 2035¶ Fossil fraction of total consumption: 84.1% to 79.1%¶ The significant increase in projected fossil fuel consumption during the next 24 years means global warming will continue unabated, because (non-OECD + ASIA) will have energy consumption growth far outpacing the energy consumption growth of the rest of the world; i.e., global warming is a given. ¶ The above indicates the enormous investments required to achieve the 2035 projected renewables energy production would have practically no benefit regarding global warming.¶ This means policy makers should shift renewables subsidies to energy efficiency which will not only reduce CO2 without controversies, but will actually do some good for household and business energy bills and thereby raise their living standards and profits.¶ That would be the rational thing to do. However, using Greenspan's words, the people, including legislators and bureaucrats, have become "irrationally exuberant" regarding renewables reducing global warming. The above shows, it is an expensive and futile tilting at wind mills a la Don Quixote.¶ Competitiveness: The above begs the question: If wind energy reduces CO2 by so very little/kWh, or not at all, or increases it, AND requires so much capital/MW to implement, AND produces energy at such a high cost/kWh, AND has such huge adverse impacts on quality of life (noise and infrasound, visuals, social unrest, psychological), property values and the environment, why are we, as a nation, making ourselves even less efficient relative to our competitors by this slavish, lemming-like pursuit of expensive wind energy?¶ Who Benefits: Could it be that the Wall Street elites see the 30% federal cash grants, accelerated write-offs, generous feed-in tariffs and renewable energy credits as major tax shelters and long-term income streams (preferably tax-free) for themselves and their high-income clients, all at the expense of the Main Street economy which is already economically depressed? ¶ If the amounts of the grants and taxes-not-collected due to these deductions from taxable incomes are totaled, it would be evident wind energy is very expensively subsidized indeed; not helpful for reducing budget deficits.¶ Roll more and more such expensive wind energy into rate schedules and the US will become even less competitive than at present: not helpful for reducing trade deficits. ¶ Wind energy promoters often use Denmark as the model to emulate. However, Denmark is in the unique position of having a large capacity of hydro plants of Norway and Sweden available for balancing wind energy; i.e., other grids with little or no hydro plants cannot use Denmark as a model. This unique position has been unfortunate for Danish households, because their electric rates are the highest in Europe; France, 80% nuclear, has the lowest.
Plan won’t create a wind market
Murphy, 12 (Robert, economist with IER specializing in climate change, received his Ph.D. in economics from New York University, Institute for Energy Research, “Assessing the Production Tax Credit”, 4/24/12, http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2012/04/24/assessing-the-production-tax-credit/) WP
Recognizing what Americans’ priorities are in a time of severe recession, proponents of extending
AND
be able to survive on a level tax- and regulatory playing field.
Wind destroys the grid—Makes failures worse
Tverberg, 12 (Gail, received a M.S. in Mathematics from the University of Illinois, Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries, Much of her early career was spent with CNA Insurance Companies in Chicago, Illinois. There she was involved in both pricing and reserving of casualty insurance coverages, “The Six Obstacles Facing US Wind Energy”, The Oil Drum, 1/19/12, lexis) WP
Obstacle 6: Adding wind energy to the electric grid adds complexity which may be
AND
time may come when the high cost of maintaining the system becomes unsustainable.
Decline doesn’t cause war
Barnett 9, senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC, contributing editor/online columnist for Esquire, 8/25,
(Thomas P.M, “The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis,” Aprodex, Asset Protection Index, http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules~-~-security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx)
When the global financial crisis struck roughly a year ago, the blogosphere was ablaze
AND
. Our new Africa Command, for example, hasn't led us to anything
The economy is resilient
Zakaria 9 (Fareed Zakaria, Editor of Newsweek International, 12-21-2009, “The Secrets of Stability,” Newsweek, http://www.newsweek.com/id/226425)
Others predicted that these economic shocks would lead to political instability and violence in the
AND
while affected by the West, their fortunes are not entirely dependent on it  
No Middle East War
Fettweis 7, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College,
(Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98)
Without the US presence, a second argument goes, nothing would prevent Sunni-
AND
cooperation to address that common interest is far more likely than outright warfare.
Zero risk of nuclear terrorism
Mearsheimer 11 (Professor of Political Science at UChicago, John, January, “Imperial by Design,” http://nationalinterest.org/article/imperial-by-design-4576?page=10, Mike)
The fact is that states have strong incentives to distrust terrorist groups, in part
AND
by accident-causing deer, or by severe allergic reactions to peanuts.”

Warming
Variability Increases Reliance on Old Plants – Cancels Out Emissions Reductions
Paul Willis 2012 June Wind Power’s CO2-Cutting Impact Disputed http://www.earthtechling.com/2012/06/wind-powers-co2-cutting-impact-disputed/
The problem, according to he Argonne research, is not the clean energy itself
AND
burning power plants are also less efficient when not operating at full capacity.
Intermittency Means Wind Increases CO2 Emissions From Older Plants
Williem Post BSME New Jersey Institute of Technology, MSME Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, MBA, University of Connecticut. P.E. Connecticut. Consulting Engineer and Project Manager 2012 July 1 Wind Energy CO2 Emissions Reductions are Overstated http://theenergycollective.com/node/89476
Variability: Because wind energy increases by the cube of the wind speed, any
AND
energy on the grid should reduce the grid CO2 emission intensity by 10%.
Reductions Are Minimal
Lomborg, 12 (Bjørn, director of the Copenhagen Consensus Center since 2006, Adjunct Professor at Copenhagen Business School, received a MA (Aarhus) and later a PhD (Copenhagen) in political science, author of The Skeptical Environmentalist and Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming, “Green Power: Wind power does not help to avert climate change”, http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-03-19/news/31210516_1_wind-turbines-wind-power-wind-farms) WP
Efforts to stem global warming have nurtured a strong urge worldwide to deploy renewable energy
AND
alone.¶ For any country, this seems like a very poor choice.

Warming is Inevitable—Past emissions stay in the atmosphere
Walsh 1-10-11 (Bryan Walsh, TIME magazine http://ecocentric.blogs.time.com/2011/01/10/climate-unstoppable-global-warming/#ixzz1QVftMyb3)

One of the biggest obstacles to reducing carbon emissions is the simple fact that political
AND
The damage is already done—and continues for the next 900 years.

NASA scientists climate study concludes an unlikely slowdown in warming
James Hansen, Reto Ruedy, Makiko Sato and Ken Lo, 1-18-12 James E. Hansen heads the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, Reto Ruedo works at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,  2012, Global Temperature in 2011, Trends, and Prospects, Google Scholar

2011 was only the ninth warmest year in the GISS analysis of global temperature change
AND
prove illusory, with more rapid warming appearing over the next few years.
A complete transition to alternatives wouldn’t affect climate change – recent life-cycle analyses
TASNEEM ABBASI, Volume 42, Issue 2, 12an assistant professor at the Centre for Pollution Control and Environmental Engineering, Pondicherry University, India, Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology, Is the Use of Renewable Energy Sources an Answer to the Problems of Global Warming and Pollution? Is the Use of Renewable Energy Sources an Answer to the Problems of Global Warming and Pollution? 

Among the rare notes of caution toward presupposing the ecofriend- liness of renewable energy
AND
global warming unless the energy production (and consumption) are drastically reduced.
Arctic data supports the claim that warming will not be runaway
Idso and Idso 2011 Craig D. (founder and chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change) Sherwood B. (president of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change) February “Carbon Dioxide and Earth’s Future Pursuing the Prudent Path” http://www.co2science.org/education/reports/prudentpath/prudentpath.pdf. 

With respect to the recent rate at which the earth has warmed, we examine
AND
-century" -- was by far "the most striking historical example."
No Impact—Warming occurs in the winter and at night
Eschenbach 10 (Independent Climate Researcher, Climate Specialties: Tropical tropospheric amplification, constructal theories of climate, “Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics … and Graphs”, Watts Up With That)
So I decided to look for a way to present exactly the same information so
AND
above is probably shown somewhere about twice as large as it actually is …
CO2 doesn’t cause warming
Lewis 7 (Richard, Institute of Economic Affairs, Global Warming False Alarms,
www.globalwarminghype.com/upld-book403pdf_.pdf)
The cornerstone of the global warming theory is that the CO2 content of the atmosphere
AND
is today but the air  temperature was only 1.5 degrees higher.
concentrations of greenhouse gases.6

Solvency

MLP prevents effective renewable energy – only causes tax shelters.
Sherlock and Keightley -11 (Molly F. Sherlock, Analyst in Economics, Mark P. Keightley, Analyst in Public Finance, June 28, 2011, Master Limited Partnerships: A Policy Option for the Renewable Energy Industry, Congressional Research Service Report, http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/eyeonwashington/2011/documents/masterlmtdpartnerships.pdf)
Allowing renewable energy facilities to structure as MLPs, if enacted jointly with policies that
AND
credits could create opportunities for tax shelters like those seen in the 1980s.

MLPs can’t solve renewable energy development – do not aid the development of technology.
Sherlock and Keightley -11 (Molly F. Sherlock, Analyst in Economics, Mark P. Keightley, Analyst in Public Finance, June 28, 2011, Master Limited Partnerships: A Policy Option for the Renewable Energy Industry, Congressional Research Service Report, http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/eyeonwashington/2011/documents/masterlmtdpartnerships.pdf)
One final point of potential concern is that MLPs have typically been used to finance
AND
have moved beyond field testing but have not yet been deployed at scale.  

Process Counterplans Legit 2NC/1NR (LONG)

1. CI: This is the only process CP we can run

2. It’s a defense of the quo—meets the neg burden of proving the plans a bad idea, means it’s predictable—that solves the internal link to your ground claims.

3. real world—Timing is a CRITICAL argument on the ENERGY PRODUCTION TOPIC—the politics and local movements disads are time sensitive which means we need to be able to test when the plan is done. Debate should mirror the context of the literature otherwise makes topic education moot.

4. Tests the strength of fiat— if we prove fiat is immediate, it’s their burden to defend it

• • • CROSS APPLY THIS STUFF FROM ABOVE *

• • • READ ONLY IF THIS IS WHERE THEY DEFINE RESOLVED * “Resolved”- requires transparency
      Rhymezone Dictionary (http://www.rhymezone.com/r/rhyme.cgi?Word=resolve, Mike)
      Definitions of resolve:   noun:   the trait of being resolute; firmness of purpose  noun:   a formal expression by a meeting; agreed to by a vote  verb:   make clearly visible  

5. Topic Education—key to learning the intricacies of the way energy policy is being constructed and organized—there are 2 parts of topic education, the agent and the object. Process CPs key to testing the inter-relationship. Otherwise, we only have abstracts. If FW debate, then internal link to the Joyner/Shaw evidence.

6. CP places conditions on the plan which create distinctions, if they win their interpretation it allows them to say roll back in the 2AC to get out of all our arguments which makes them a moving target, process CPs key on topics that are aff-biased.

Impact
Natural gas is key to prevent resource conflict, goes global and triggers all the 1AC impacts and more, outweighs and turns case—
Extinction—Worlds 3 greatest superpowers lauching their entire nuclear arsenals would destroy the planet ten times over, that’s Henderson
Specifically turns their manufacturing arguments
Hunt -12 (Gary Hunt is President, Scalable Growth Strategy Advisors, an independent energy technology and information services adviser and a partner in Tech and Creative Labs, 15 February 2012, How the US Shale Boom Will Change the World, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/How-the-US-Shale-Boom-Will-Change-the-World.html)
New Jobs Creation is driven by Low Cost Energy. A report from PricewaterhouseCoopers for
AND
prices to near record low levels from long term reliable domestic energy supply.
Increase natural gas exports solves economic downturn
Ratner, Parfomak and Luther -11 (Michael Ratner, Analyst in Energy Policy, Paul W. Parfomak, Specialist in Energy and Infrastructure Policy, Linda Luther, Analyst in Environmental Policy, U.S. Natural Gas Exports: New Opportunities, Uncertain Outcomes, CRS Service, November 4, 2011, http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/R42074_20111104.pdf)
Expectations about the economic impacts of greater U.S. natural gas exports depend
AND
more and more U.S. natural gas to overseas markets. 33
Also turns Economy—Nukes would devastate America’s biggest banks, the economy would be sent back to the stone age
Turns Warming
Moniz et al -11 (Ernest J, Chair, MIT Interdisciplinary Study, 6/09/2011, The Future of Natural Gas http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies/natural-gas-2011.shtml)
The findings and recommendations of the study are discussed later in this chapter, and
AND
form of liquid fuel may be the best pathway to significant market penetration.
Natural gas is critical to chemical and the steel industry.
Pooley -12 (ERIC POOLEY, Environmental Defense Fund,  AUGUST 10, 2012, Natural Gas – A Briefing Paper For Candidates, http://blogs.edf.org/energyexchange/2012/08/10/natural-gas-a-briefing-paper-for-candidates/)
While a majority of Americans remain unfamiliar with hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking,"
AND
sense of the potential for U.S. energy independence and energy security
Independently, the chemical industry is key to solving everything from disease to environmental collapse – prevents extinction
Baum, editor-in-chief of the American Chemical Society's Chemical and Engineering News 1999(Rudy M. Baum, CandE News, “Millennium Special Report,” 12-6-99, http://pubs.acs.org/hotartcl/cenear/991206/7749spintro2.html)
The pace of change in today's world is truly incomprehensible. Science is advancing on
AND
up in real public fear of genetic manipulation and corporate control over food.

Natural gas development incentives shifts towards democracy – economic pressures prove.
Hunt -12 (Gary Hunt is President, Scalable Growth Strategy Advisors, an independent energy technology and information services adviser and a partner in Tech and Creative Labs, 15 February 2012, How the US Shale Boom Will Change the World, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/How-the-US-Shale-Boom-Will-Change-the-World.html)
Taming the bad boys in the neighbourhood. As shale development potential is better understood
AND
behind in the wave of global economic growth proves too powerful to resist.

Democracy solves extinction.
Diamond -95 (Larry Diamond, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, December, PROMOTING DEMOCRACY IN THE 1990S,
1995, p. http://www.carnegie.org//sub/pubs/deadly/diam_rpt.html )
Nuclear, chemical and biological weapons continue to proliferate. The very source of life
AND
which a new world order of international security and prosperity can be built.

UQ
Natural gas prices are low now—Abundant supplies of low-cost shale gas has made natural gas more popular than ever, that’s Conrad
Prefer it—Inventories and massive supply
Hurdle 8/14/12 (Jon Hurdle, AOL Energy, August 14, 2012, What Is Set to Drive Natural Gas Prices Lower?, http://energy.aol.com/2012/08/14/what-is-set-to-drive-natural-gas-prices-lower/)
Prices for natural gas are headed lower after a hot summer showed signs of the
AND
seasonal increase at only 1,477 bcf, the lowest since 1991.
A2 – Prices ^ Inev
-Still says renewable will be more competitive than ever—proves the link
-This is just UQ for our AFF—Our evidence is 6 months newer, that’s when we found new natural gas, that’s Conard
-Even if prices do go up, it won’t happen for 20 years means there’s enough time for policy makers to come up with a solution
A2 – Low Prices Kills Industry
-Wrong—Low prices are key to the energy industry, Natural gas is bigger and better than ever
-If we win DA turns case then this is irrelevant
-Low prices now means the industry wouldn’t be able to prop itself up in the first place if this is true
A2 – Nat Gas Inev
-Gut check—It’s about LNG, not new found natural gas
-Not inevitable—There’s still a finite amount of natural gas, it’s just abundant now

Link
Extend the link—DOE report proves that with increases of wind production displaces natural gas, our evidence specifies it will reduce Natural gas by 50%, that’s Barber
Wind power kills natural gas generation.
Moniz et al -11 (Ernest J, Chair, MIT Interdisciplinary Study, 6/09/2011, The Future of Natural Gas http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies/natural-gas-2011.shtml)
As depicted in Panel 4.8b, when less wind is dispatched, the
AND
less-employed, single-cycle gas turbines and steam gas units.

Increased wind production tanks natural gas production – causes massive price volatility.
Moniz et al -11 (Ernest J, Chair, MIT Interdisciplinary Study, 6/09/2011, The Future of Natural Gas http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies/natural-gas-2011.shtml)
Although our analysis has been limited to a few alternative scenarios, we can observe
AND
of investment in natural gas generation capacity to ensure system reliability and efficiency.

Wind power drastically reduces natural gas use.
The Washington Times -01 (December 20, 2001, Windmill power; 'Breath of fresh air' for nation?, August Gribbin, Lexis)
Attempts to use windmill-powered generators to produce clean, renewable energy have been
AND
industry forecasters expect total installed capacity to triple over the next five years."
Solves warming cards
Increases shale gas solves emissions now.
Yang 8/8/12 (Catherine T. Yang, For National Geographic News, Published August 8, 2012, China Drills Into Shale Gas, Targeting Huge Reserves Amid Challenges, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/08/120808-china-shale-gas/)
Shale gas now makes up 25 percent of the U.S. natural gas
AND
trillion cubic meters) in estimated U.S. shale gas stores.
Low natural gas prices cause transition from coal.
Hunt -12 (Gary Hunt is President, Scalable Growth Strategy Advisors, an independent energy technology and information services adviser and a partner in Tech and Creative Labs, 15 February 2012, How the US Shale Boom Will Change the World, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/How-the-US-Shale-Boom-Will-Change-the-World.html)
Market Discipline of Fossil Fuels Weeds Out Coal in Favour of Cleaner Gas. After
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growth make gas the least cost, best fit in almost every region.

Shale natural gas solves air pollution and GHG emissions – it is a bridge.
Pooley -12 (ERIC POOLEY, Environmental Defense Fund,  AUGUST 10, 2012, Natural Gas – A Briefing Paper For Candidates, http://blogs.edf.org/energyexchange/2012/08/10/natural-gas-a-briefing-paper-for-candidates/)
Increased development of shale gas could yield substantial environmental and public health benefits while helping
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in combination with demand response and emerging large-scale energy storage technologies.
Natural gas use prevents acid rain and lowers GHG emissions.
Liang et al. -12 (Fang-Yu Liang * , Marta Ryvak, Sara Sayeed * , Nick Zhao, The role of natural gas as a primary fuel in the near future, including comparisons of acquisition, transmission and waste handling costs of as with competitive alternatives, Chemistry Central Journal 2012, 6(Suppl 1):S4 http://journal.chemistrycentral.com/content/6/S1/S4
Smog is formed by a chemical reaction of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile
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for scrubbers, and thus reducing the amount of sludge from industrial processes.

Solvency Frontline

MLP prevents effective renewable energy – only causes tax shelters.
Sherlock and Keightley -11 (Molly F. Sherlock, Analyst in Economics, Mark P. Keightley, Analyst in Public Finance, June 28, 2011, Master Limited Partnerships: A Policy Option for the Renewable Energy Industry, Congressional Research Service Report, http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/eyeonwashington/2011/documents/masterlmtdpartnerships.pdf)
Allowing renewable energy facilities to structure as MLPs, if enacted jointly with policies that
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credits could create opportunities for tax shelters like those seen in the 1980s.

MLPs can’t solve renewable energy development – do not aid the development of technology.
Sherlock and Keightley -11 (Molly F. Sherlock, Analyst in Economics, Mark P. Keightley, Analyst in Public Finance, June 28, 2011, Master Limited Partnerships: A Policy Option for the Renewable Energy Industry, Congressional Research Service Report, http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/eyeonwashington/2011/documents/masterlmtdpartnerships.pdf)
One final point of potential concern is that MLPs have typically been used to finance
AND
have moved beyond field testing but have not yet been deployed at scale.  

Companies won’t use MLPs – too complex.
Peacock -09 (Philip H. Peacock is an associate in the Corporate/Securities section of the Houston office of
Andrews Kurth LLP, MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIPS: AT THE CROSSROADS?, 6/4/2009, TEXAS JOURNAL OF OIL, GAS, AND ENERGY LAW, http://tjogel.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Recent_Developments_Final.pdf)
The first disadvantage of the MLP structure is its structural complexity. Common units,
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lest they find themselves on the wrong side of the qualifying income test.

MLP ineffective – companies can’t build capital
Peacock -09 (Philip H. Peacock is an associate in the Corporate/Securities section of the Houston office of
Andrews Kurth LLP, MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIPS: AT THE CROSSROADS?, 6/4/2009, TEXAS JOURNAL OF OIL, GAS, AND ENERGY LAW, http://tjogel.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Recent_Developments_Final.pdf)
A second disadvantage of MLPs is their relatively limited ability to accumulate cash. As noted above, MLPs contractually obligate themselves to distribute 100% of their available cash each quarter. As a result, MLPs cannot build up war chests like traditional corporations and are therefore highly dependent upon external sources of financing to fund their growth projects and acquisitions. 

MLPs can’t solve – investors won’t invest in them
Peacock -09 (Philip H. Peacock is an associate in the Corporate/Securities section of the Houston office of
Andrews Kurth LLP, MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIPS: AT THE CROSSROADS?, 6/4/2009, TEXAS JOURNAL OF OIL, GAS, AND ENERGY LAW, http://tjogel.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Recent_Developments_Final.pdf)
A third disadvantage of MLPs is the limited liquidity of their common units. MLP
AND
-oriented security—they generally are not expected to rapidly increase in value

—investors tend to buy and hold them rather than trading in and out of
AND
the outside capital that MLPs are dependent upon is to some extent eliminated. 

Investor practices prevent MLPs from working.
Peacock -09 (Philip H. Peacock is an associate in the Corporate/Securities section of the Houston office of
Andrews Kurth LLP, MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIPS: AT THE CROSSROADS?, 6/4/2009, TEXAS JOURNAL OF OIL, GAS, AND ENERGY LAW, http://tjogel.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Recent_Developments_Final.pdf)
Another disadvantage of MLPs that relates to the limited trading volume of their common units
AND
sellers to drive the price down when so many shares are changing hands.

Nuclear Terrorism Defense – Ext. 1 – No Risk
Zero risk of nuclear terrorism – Mearsheimer has several warrants
a. Rogue states have no interest in providing the weapons – they fear being blamed by the attack and the U.S. response
b. Even if terrorists acquired nukes – the weapons would be disassembled and they would need launch codes on top of transportation that would go undetected
c. The total number of Americans killed by international terrorists is the same killed by deer and peanut allergies – there is no existential impact
Terror threat overblown—greater likelihood of being hit by a comet
Mueller 5 (Political scientist in the field of international relations, John Mueller, “Is There Still a Terrorist Threat?” Nexis)
But while keeping such potential dangers in mind, it is worth remembering that the
AND
erected since 9/11 may be persecuting some, spying on many,
No chance of a terrorist attack
Mueller 11 (IR prof at Ohio State. PhD in pol sci from UCLA, John, The Truth about Al Qaeda, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68012/john-mueller/the-truth-about-al-qaeda?page=show)
As a misguided Turkish proverb holds, "If your enemy be an ant,
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3.5 million per year, even with 9/11 included.

2NC Wind Variability Stops CO2 Reductions
Emissions From Variability Cancel Out Reductions
Paul Willis 2012 June Wind Power’s CO2-Cutting Impact Disputed http://www.earthtechling.com/2012/06/wind-powers-co2-cutting-impact-disputed/
Inconsistency of supply is one of the biggest drawbacks of renewables such as wind and
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– a conclusion that the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) disputed.
Wind doesn’t solve emissions – any benefit is cancelled out by the cost of generation
Bryce, 10 (Robert, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, recently published his fourth book, "Power Hungry: The Myths of 'Green' Energy and the Real Fuels of the Future", “Wind Power Won't Cool Down the Planet”, 8/23/10, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703792704575366700528078676.html) WP
The wind industry has achieved remarkable growth largely due to the claim that it will
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emissions, "the reality is that it's not doing much of anything."

2NC Wind Power Increases Warming
CO2 Reductions Are Net Better Without Wind Integration
Leo Hickman 2012 January 9 Are wind turbines increasing carbon emissions? http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2012/jan/09/wind-turbines-increasing-carbon-emissions
A new report published on Monday by Civitas, a social policy thinktank that promotes
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, when compared to electricity generation with modern high-efficiency gas turbines.
2NC Cant Solve Global Emissions
Cant Offset Global CO2 Emissions
Post, 11 (Willem, SME New Jersey Institute of Technology, MSME Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, MBA, University of Connecticut. P.E. Connecticut. Consulting Engineer and Project Manager, “Wind Energy Does Little to Reduce CO2 Emissions”, 9/8/11, http://theenergycollective.com/node/64492) WP
Within federal, state and local governments tens of thousands of people are busying themselves promoting renewables by with holding meetings and public hearings, preparing studies, writing reports, energy plans, laws, rules and regulations, monitoring projects for compliance, etc.¶ Outside of government wind turbine vendors (Siemens, GE, Vestas, Iberdrola, etc,), project developers/owners, financiers managing tax shelters, trade organizations, etc., are busying themselves popularizing wind energy as saving the planet from global warming with PR campaigns that claim there would be significant reductions of fossil fuel consumption and CO2 reductions/kWh, that capital costs/MW would decrease, and that wind energy costs/kWh would be at grid parity in the near future. These claims have largely not been realized. ¶ Global Warming is a Given: A just-released report from EIA shows the actual world energy consumption data and projected consumption data for the 1990 to 2035 period. The report shows world energy consumption is estimated to increase from 505 quads in 2008 to 770 quads in 2035, a 52% increase. The biggest part of the increase is by (non-OECD nations + Asia).¶ http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/world.cfm¶ See spreadsheet associated with figure 12¶ World energy consumption by fuel (quadrillion Btu) ¶ Liquids: From 173.2 in 2010 to 225.1 in 2035; 30% more¶ Natural gas: 116.7 to 174.7; 50% more¶ Coal: 149.4 to 209.1; 49% more¶ Nuclear: 27.6 to 51.2; 86% more¶ Renewables: 55.2 to 109.5; 98% more¶ Renewables fraction of total consumption: From 10.6% in 2010 to 15.2% in 2035¶ Fossil fraction of total consumption: 84.1% to 79.1%¶ The significant increase in projected fossil fuel consumption during the next 24 years means global warming will continue unabated, because (non-OECD + ASIA) will have energy consumption growth far outpacing the energy consumption growth of the rest of the world; i.e., global warming is a given. ¶ The above indicates the enormous investments required to achieve the 2035 projected renewables energy production would have practically no benefit regarding global warming.¶ This means policy makers should shift renewables subsidies to energy efficiency which will not only reduce CO2 without controversies, but will actually do some good for household and business energy bills and thereby raise their living standards and profits.¶ That would be the rational thing to do. However, using Greenspan's words, the people, including legislators and bureaucrats, have become "irrationally exuberant" regarding renewables reducing global warming. The above shows, it is an expensive and futile tilting at wind mills a la Don Quixote.¶
Grid 1NC Frontline
Grid Problems Make Scalability Impossible
NYT August 27, 2008 Wind Energy Bumps Into Power Grid’s Limits By Matthew L. Wald
When the builders of the Maple Ridge Wind farm spent $320 million to put
AND
to move that electricity from there to the load centers,” he said.
Means You Cant Solve
Ian Hoffman, University of California, Berkeley et al 2009 Redefining  What’s Possible  for Clean Energy  by 2020 JuNE 2009 http://www.gigatonthrowdown.org/wind.php other authors: Alexia Byrne, University of California, Berkeley and Dan Kammen, Professor, Director, Renewable and Appropriate  Energy Lab, University of California, Berkeley
Regardless of policy support on the supply or demand side, wind power is unlikely
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carbon pricing, hold significant promise for large-scale carbon emissions abatement.
Upfront Costs Deter Large scale Investment
Tverberg, 12 (Gail, received a M.S. in Mathematics from the University of Illinois, Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries, Much of her early career was spent with CNA Insurance Companies in Chicago, Illinois. There she was involved in both pricing and reserving of casualty insurance coverages, “The Six Obstacles Facing US Wind Energy”, The Oil Drum, 1/19/12, lexis) WP
Obstacle 5: A high proportion of funding for wind energy is up front.¶
AND
in projects that require large front-end funding, like wind turbines.

And That Increases Pressure on the Grid – Makes Blackouts Likely
NYT August 27, 2008 Wind Energy Bumps Into Power Grid’s Limits By Matthew L. Wald
The basic problem is that many transmission lines, and the connections between them,
AND
pay fees for the privilege of continuing to pump power into the lines.¶
That Will Cause Reactor Meltdowns – Nuclear Plants Cant Deal With Outages
Associated Press 2011  By Dina Cappiello   03/29/11 “Long Blackouts Pose Risk To U.S. Nuclear Reactors” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/29/blackout-risk-us-nuclear-reactors_n_841869.html
WASHINGTON -- Long before the nuclear emergency in Japan, U.S. regulators
AND
S. power plants are as prepared as they could and should be.
Reactor meltdowns obliterate the planet
Wasserman ’02 (Harvey, Senior Editor – Free Press, Earth Island Journal, Spring, www.earthisland.org/eijournal/new_articles.cfm?articleID=457andjournalID=63)
The intense radioactive heat within today's operating reactors is the hottest anywhere on the planet
AND
core of our life and of all future generations must be shut down.   

1NC Frontline
Wind doesn’t solve energy independence
Tverberg, 12 (Gail, received a M.S. in Mathematics from the University of Illinois, Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries, Much of her early career was spent with CNA Insurance Companies in Chicago, Illinois. There she was involved in both pricing and reserving of casualty insurance coverages, “The Six Obstacles Facing US Wind Energy”, The Oil Drum, 1/19/12, lexis) WP
If transitions to new energy sources and new technologies could be made cheaply and quickly
AND
capital to tackle all the problems that need to be tackled at once.
Wind won’t phase out fossil fuels – it relies on them for backup
Martin, 10 (Elib, Crimson editorial writer, lives in Lowell House, “Wind Farms: Not So Green”, 8/10/10, http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2010/9/10/wind-energy-power-farms) WP
At first—or even second and third—glance, wind farms appear to
AND
. Wind farms are simply not what they are cracked up to be.
Low Nat Gas Prices Means No Market For Wind – Makes Transition Impossible
Jen Alic is a geopolitical analyst, co-founder of ISA Intel in Sarajevo and Tel Aviv, and the former editor-in-chief of ISN Security Watch in Zurich. 2012 August 19 We are Decades Away from a Cure for our Fossil Fuel Addiction http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/We-are-Decades-Away-from-a-Cure-for-our-Fossil-Fuel-Addiction.html
With natural gas prices low and supplies high, we are decades away from being
AND
is also impossible to convince the average consumer to go along with this. 

Tournament: ISU | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
1NC
Off
SQ will decrease emissions by 80% by 2050- maintaining the transition key to solve warming and avoid peak oil impacts
Lovins 2012 (Amory, physicist, environmental scientist, writer, and Chairman/Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, Oxford MA, A Farewell to Fossil Fuels: Answering the Energy Challenge, Foreign Affairs, March/April, proquest)
Weaning the United States from those fossil fuels would require two big shifts: in
AND
last, Americans could make energy do their work without working their undoing.
Nuke power trades off with renewables, jacks short-term transition key to solve warming and peak fossil fuel
Conolley 2011 (Heather, PhD Candidate in Political Science at UC- Santa Barbara, The Renaissance of Nuclear Energy in the Shadow of Climate Change, PhD Dissertation, proquest)
Given the long lead time associated with development and reactor ¶ construction, nuclear opponents
AND
). Thus opportunity costs for constructing nuclear reactors must be ¶ carefully considered.
Extinction
Tickell ‘8 (Oliver, Climate Researcher, “On a Planet 4C Hotter, All We Can Prepare for is Extinction,” The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)
We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming, Bob Watson told
AND
warming caused by human emissions could propel us towards a similar hothouse Earth. 

Off
Obama will win- most recent polls and momentum are on his side
Silver 9/28/2012 (Nate, Genius, writer for FiveThirtyEight, now under the New York Times, The blog is devoted to rigorous analysis of politics, polling, public affairs, sports, science and culture, largely through statistical means, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/28/sept-27-the-impact-of-the-47-percent/)
Thursday’s Polls¶ What we can say with more confidence is that Mr. Romney
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Nov. 6 forecast, up from 81.9 percent on Wednesday.
Nuclear Power is unpopular – funding, transitions from other issues, and tradeoffs

US News, 2009 Nov 30th, Democrats Change Tune on Nuclear Energy, http://www.usnews.com/news/energy/articles/2009/11/30/democrats-change-tune-on-nuclear-energy

This calculation is outraging many of the administration's environmental-minded supporters, who say
AND
someone's gain will most likely be someone else's loss in the energy world.

Base Mobilization key to winning the election—empirically proven for incumbents
WSJ 5/22 (The Wall Street Journal “As in 2004, energizing the base a key to victory” 5/22/12 http://www.myfoxdfw.com/story/18583004/as-in-2004-energizing-the-base-a-key-to-victory#ixzz1MekSBwU) KY
President Barack Obama does not often dwell on similarities to his predecessor, George W
AND
But 2004 suggests that both sides' strategies may start with mobilizing the core.
Obama win key to US-Russia relations – Romney’s agenda is belligerent and controversial.
Reichardt 7/9. (Adam is the Managing Editor of New Eastern Europe, “Considering Russia in the Voting Booth,” New Eastern Europe, 2012, http://www.neweasterneurope.eu/node/382)

Obama’s policy towards Russia is easier to gauge, since there has already been four years of his administration to judge. As Ross Wilson noted, “President Obama has a four-year record with Russia to defend – i.e., the reset policy and the benefits that the administration will argue have accrued from its more pragmatic and less confrontational approach to relations with Moscow.”
President Obama’s policy of reset was indeed a glimmer of hope for US-Russian relations at the start of 2009, but that glimmer has all but faded. The case of Syria and Iran are clear examples of the real challenges America still faces when engaging with Russia on global issues and the Obama campaign will most likely avoid referring to the “reset” by name.
“Though the Administration will not use the expression ‘reset’ too much, it can be expected to continue to emphasize pragmatism and to implement that line if the president is re-elected,” Wilson believes.
Obama’s opponent, Mitt Romney, has been less clear about his position on relations
AND
no Cold War, but Russia is a geopolitical foe in that regard."
The Romney campaign’s web site reveals several areas of focus for Russia, none of them discuss active engagement, but rather focus on taking tougher stances with Russia, including renegotiating the New Start Treaty, decreasing Europe’s energy reliance on Russia, building stronger relations with Central Asia, as well as supporting Russia’s civil society.
Surprisingly, the last one, engaging Russia’s civil society, could be the most
AND
in the opposition – it could hurt the entire goal of this platform.
Having the American government play an active role in the changes happening inside Russia could be detrimental to US-Russian relations. Many Russians believe that changes within their own country should be driven from the Russian society. Any outside interference would hurt the legitimacy of the Russian opposition and cause the Russian elite to become even more suspicious, and perhaps even hostile, to the intentions of American foreign policy.

Extinction
Collins and Rojansky 10 – * U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation from 1997 to 2001, AND deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment (8/18/10, James F. Collins, Matthew Rojansky, Foreign Policy, “Why Russia Matters,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=viewandid=41409,)
A year and a half after Barack Obama hit the "reset" button with
AND
to maintain relations with Russia. And good relations would be even better.

Off
The United States federal government should conduct a binding regulatory negotiation over the substance, implementation and enforcement of removing all restrictions to the formation of a thorium bank in the United State.
The CP accelerates energy development and overcomes bureaucratic issues
Lemaire Professor at University College London Energy Institute ’12 (Xavier, “SERN,” http://www.reeep.org/830/sern.htm, Mike)
The Sustainable Energy AND energy efficiency experts.
The aff gets watered down by lack of unified energy policy, resistance from fossil fuel industries, and citizen opposition – the CP is key to avoid politics
Nolon Director of Land Use Law Center at Pace University Law School ’11 (Sean, “Negotiating the Wind: A Framework to Engage Citizens in Siting Wind Turbines,” Cardozo Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 12 no. 2, accessible online via http://cojcr.org/vol12no2/327-372.pdf, Mike)
The need for more renewable sources of energy is unequivocal and the call can be
AND
, provides for decommissioning, and enables siting negotiations at the local level.

Prolif

1. Accidents Turn—
   a. Nuclear power is decisively on the decline – Fukushima, costs, and delays
   Roney 12 (J. Matthew, president of Earth Policy Institute, 5/22, “Fukushima Meltdown Hastens Decline of Nuclear Power” Earth Policy Institute, http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2012/update103)
   On May 5, 2012, Japan shut down its Tomari 3 nuclear reactor on
   AND
   Russia, and Japan—could meet their electricity needs with wind alone.

b. Expansion of nuclear power makes accidents more likely—Reactors designs and fuel types are irrelevant
Ramana 11 (MV, With the Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton University and is on the Coordinating Committee of the Coalition for Nuclear Disarmament and Peace, 11 Costs, risks, and myths of nuclear power, “No escape from accidents,” http://www.nirs.org/international/reachingcriticalwillreport.pdf)
In the aftermath of Fukushima and, twenty five years earlier, Chernobyl, it
AND
, though, our experience is too limited to make any reliable predictions.
c. Extinction
Lendman 11 – Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (Stephen, 03/ 13, “Nuclear Meltdown in Japan,” http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2011/03/13/nuclear-meltdown-in-japan)
Reuters said the 1995 Kobe quake caused $100 billion in damage, up to
AND
potentially millions under a worse case scenario, including far outside East Asia.
d. New tech doesn’t solve – meltdowns can only be prevented in good circumstances, not in a natural disaster or terrorist attack
Biello, 12 (David, award-winning online associate editor for environment and energy reporting on the environment and energy since 1999, “How Safe Are U.S. Nuclear Reactors? Lessons from Fukushima”, 3/9/12, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=how-safe-are-old-nuclear-reactors-lessons-from-fukushimaandprint=true) WP

The U.S. nuclear industry, for its part, is suggesting that
AND
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, water remains the key to nuclear safety.
2. Increased nuclear use leads to more unchecked prolif
Tickell, 12 (Oliver, leading campaigner and researcher on climate issues and has contributed pieces to a number of major international media outlets, “Renewable Revolution or Nuclear Nightmare?”, 7/13/12, http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/1482669/renewable_revolution_or_nuclear_nightmare.html) WP
For a start, it would be much more radioactive than it is now.
AND
just 160 Mtoe, a mere 1.5% of primary energy.

3. Thorium doesn’t solve risk of prolif – produces even more bomb-making material
Makhijani and Boyd, 9 (Arjun, President of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, holds a Ph.D. in engineering (specialization: nuclear fusion) from the University of California at Berkeley, and Michele, former director of the Safe Energy Program at Physicians for Social Responsibility, Staff Scientist at the Institute for IEER, “Thorium Fuel: No Panacea for Nuclear Power”, July 2009, http://ieer.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/thorium2009factsheet.pdf) WP

Not a Proliferation Solution¶ Thorium is not actually a “fuel” because it
AND
reprocessing ¶ would offer the same temptation to reprocess as today’s once-through
4. Uranium-238 converts to uranium-233- which can be used to produce atomic weapons
Chris Rhodes Contributor 2/29/2012 @ 1:07PM |11,051 views Thorium Nuclear Power -- A Lesson From Norway http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2012/02/29/thorium-nuclear-power-a-lesson-from-norway/
Indeed, the 99+% of uranium-238 can be converted into plutonium-
AND
which is principally an alpha-particle emitter and far more readily hidden.

5. Proliferation will be slow
Waltz 00 (Kenneth Waltz, Professor of Political Science at UC Berkeley, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, v1 n1, Winter/Spring 2000)
It is now estimated that about twenty–five countries are in a position to
AND
, in which one or two states per decade gradually develop nuclear weapons.
6. No domino effect – it’s empirically denied
Bergenas 10 (Research Associate at the Henry L. Stimson Center, Johan, “The Nuclear Domino Myth”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66738/johan-bergenas/the-nuclear-domino-myth)
But there's one problem with this "nuclear domino" scenario: the historical record
AND
was there even a two-country nuclear arms race in the region.

Space
Turn – Weaponization
Plan perceived as and leads to weaponization breaking the OST
Grossman 00 – professor of journalism at the State University of New York College at Old Westbury Keep Space for Peace Presentation at Atioch College March 14, 2000 By Karl Grossman http://www.space4peace.org/articles/keepsforp.htm
We only have a narrow window to prevent an arms race in space. The
AND
that "states shall be liable for damage caused by their space objects." 

Impacts – the perception of US space dominance leads to preemption and kills treaty credibility – leads to unchecked escalation

Hitchens 8 – president of the Center for Defense Information (Theresa, “Space Wars - Coming to the Sky Near You?”, Scientific American, February, http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=space-wars-coming-to-the-sky-near-you)

Perhaps of even greater concern is that several other nations, including one of China’s
AND
lasted half a century. The likely alternative would be unacceptable to all.

Space War leads to Extinction – accidents, miscalculation, and nuclear retaliation

Mitchell et al 1 -Associate Professor of Communication and Director of Debate at the University of Pittsburgh (Dr. Gordon, ISIS Briefing on Ballistic Missile Defence, “Missile Defence:  Trans-Atlantic Diplomacy at a Crossroads”, No. 6 July, http://www.isisuk.demon.co.uk/0811/isis/uk/bmd/no6.html)

A buildup of space weapons might begin with noble intentions of 'peace through strength' deterrence
AND
space could plunge the world into the most destructive military conflict ever seen.

Space colonization is impossible – costly, inhospitable, and unnecessary
Stross 07—technical author; freelance journalist; author of The Web Architect’s Handbook; specializes in space opera and hard science fiction characterized by an emphasis on scientific or technical detail and scientific accuracy
Charles, “The High Frontier, Redux,” June 16, http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2007/06/the_high_frontier_redux.html
Optimistic projects suggest that it should be possible, with the low cost rockets currently
AND
kind of human being who can thrive in an airless, inhospitable environment.

Space exploration will cause superdiseases – Earth bacteria rapidly mutate – kills any explorers
O’Neill 2008
Ian, “Germs Living In Space,” March 11th, Universe Today, http://www.universetoday.com/2008/03/11/germs-living-in-space-almost-three-times-as-likely-to-cause-disease/
In one experiment on board Space Shuttle Endeavor (STS-123) launched early
AND
the otherwise benign Staphylococcus genus which has mutated to resist commonly used antibiotics.

Solvency

1. No nuclear renaissance—Laundry list of barriers
   Slocum 12 (Tyson Slocum dir. Public Citizen’s Energy Program, 2-13-2012, "NRC Approval Doesn’t Signal Much," National Journal, http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/02/is-america-poised-for-nuclear.php)
   The Nuclear Regulatory AND renewable technologies.
   2. Nuclear expansion impossible – laundry list of supply and sitting constraints
   Zyga 11 (Lisa “Why nuclear power will never supply the world’s energy needs,” PhysOrg, http://phys.org/news/2011-05-nuclear-power-world-energy.html
   The 440 commercial nuclear reactors in use worldwide are currently helping to minimize our consumption
   AND
   reactors, even though commercial fusion is still likely a long way off.
   3. Terror Turn—
   a. Nuke plants are vulnerable to terrorism – they fail safety tests and a successful attack doesn’t even require technical knowledge
   Stone, 11 (Daniel, senior political reporter @ Newsweek, “Flirting With Disaster;
   Every few years the defenses of the nation's nuclear plants are tested. What's scary is how often they fail”, 1/17/11, SCIENCE; Pg. 38 Vol. 157 No. 03 ISSN: 0028-9604, lexis) WP
   In early 2009 a team of terrorists managed to enter a nuclear-power plant
   AND
   would cause it to self-ignite and spread radiation through the air.¶
   b. Extinction and their defense won’t apply
   Ayson 10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions, InformaWorld)
   But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear attack and a
   AND
   consultation from Washington that the latter found itself unable or unwilling to provide.
   4. The US literally CAN’T build more nuke plants- no workers or staff, can’t get the materials
   Mez 2012 (Dr. Lutz, Coordinator of the Berlin Centre for Caspian Region Studies at the Free University of Berlin, Nuclear energy–Any solution for sustainability and climate protection?, Energy Policy, Volume 48, September 2012, Pages 56–63, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.047)
   7. Problems faced by the nuclear industry¶ The nuclear industry has been battling
   AND
   been closed must be torn down and solutions finally found for nuclear waste.
   5. Even if they can get the materials- the costs and uncertainty are so high the plan won’t matter
   Fahring 2011 (TL, 2011 graduate from the University of Texas School of Law. He is currently a law clerk at the Texas Eleventh Court of Appeals. He is interested in energy law, environmental law, and tax law, III. Causes of Uncertainty in U.S. Nuclear Construction, NOTE: Nuclear Uncertainty: A Look at the Uncertainties of a U.S. Nuclear Renaissance, 41 Tex. Envtl. L.J. 279, lexis)
   C. Increasing Costs of Materials, Labor, and Capital¶ ¶ The rising
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   high for even federal legislation providing loan guarantees to overcome." n162
   6. Thorium reactors don’t solve – not commercially viable, produces more waste, and technically inefficient
   Rees, 11 (Eifion, staff @ The Ecologist, “Don't believe the spin on thorium being a greener nuclear option”, 6/23/11, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/23/thorium-nuclear-uranium) WP 

In his reading, thorium is merely a way of deflecting attention and criticism from
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players is interested. Thorium reactors are no more than a distraction.'

7. Thorium makes the waste problem worse – decays far slower and more dangerous
Makhijani and Boyd, 9 (Arjun, President of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, holds a Ph.D. in engineering (specialization: nuclear fusion) from the University of California at Berkeley, and Michele, former director of the Safe Energy Program at Physicians for Social Responsibility, Staff Scientist at the Institute for IEER, “Thorium Fuel: No Panacea for Nuclear Power”, July 2009, http://ieer.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/thorium2009factsheet.pdf) WP

Not a Waste Solution¶ Proponents claim that thorium fuel significantly reduces the volume,
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hazardous non-radioactive ¶ metals in both thorium and uranium mill tailings.

Block
A2: Perm Do Both

1. Hold them to the text of the permutation in the 2AC – 1AR clarifications of what this means are sandbagging and a voting issue because we don’t get to actually answer the substance of the argument until the 2NR
   2. Prior and binding key – otherwise the public won’t participate and links to politics – means no solvency
   Lindstrom and Nie 97 – Research Consultants for the Arizona Department of Transportation
   Matthew and Martin, “HOW DO YOU COLLECT AND USE PUBLIC INFORMATION IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PLANS AND PROGRAMS?,” ADOT, REPORT NUMBER:  FHWA-AZ97-452, http://www.azdot.gov/TPD/ATRC/publications/project_reports/PDF/AZ452.pdf
   In an ideal world, public participation would run throughout the project or policy in
   AND
   input becomes a case of too little, too late. 13
   3. Failure to take fully consider public views tank the whole project
   Lindstrom and Nie 97 – Research Consultants for the Arizona Department of Transportation
   Matthew and Martin, “HOW DO YOU COLLECT AND USE PUBLIC INFORMATION IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PLANS AND PROGRAMS?,” ADOT, REPORT NUMBER:  FHWA-AZ97-452, http://www.azdot.gov/TPD/ATRC/publications/project_reports/PDF/AZ452.pdf
   Citizen opposition to transportation projects is often explained as being fueled by a fundamental sense
   AND
   issue first and foremost lest the complete process loses all meaning and dignity.
    4. ZERO risk of a net benefit to the permutation – only a risk of NIMBY backlash – perm has to have a net benefit or theoretical justification to be legitimate otherwise the aff can make them endlessly without explanation or warrant – hypotesting died out in the 80’s

A2: Perm Do the CP

1. The perm is functional severance – the CP never mandates the plan happens – it’s a completely different action, ALL of which ALWAYS happens – reg-negs are not resolved because they allow invited parties to amend or nullify the affs reduction on regulations – that’s a voting issue for fairness and education because it destroys all neg ground
   A2: Reg Neg Takes a Long Time
2. Reg Neg is comparatively faster – litigation issues with the environment alone take years to overcome – public backlash to the plan delays any of their internal links and not the CP because it engages the public at the beginning of the process – that’s Nolon
   This means the CP happens faster than the aff*
   Siegel 10 (Joseph A., Senior Attorney for the EPA, Pace Environmental Law Review, “/collaborative Decision Making on Climate Change in the Federal Government”, L/X) CC
   Collaborative decision making can provide a forum for broad participation by multiple stakeholders, facilitate
   AND
   and more likely to be implemented than decisions made via traditional processes. n20

2. Independently, public participation in rule-making speeds the process up
Peyser 5 – MS in City Planning @ MIT
Jennifer, “How Does Participation in the Framing, Review, and Incorporation of Scientific Information Affect Stakeholder Perspectives on Resource Management Decisions?,” http://web.mit.edu/dusp/epp/music/pdf/jpeyser.thesis.FINAL.pdf
In implementing the agreement, the group should also consider how the decision’s efficacy will
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solutions through increased participation and inclusion of different perspectives and sources of knowledge.
3. The process of the counterplan avoids delay – but the plan doesn’t
Peyser 5 – MS in City Planning @ MIT
Jennifer, “How Does Participation in the Framing, Review, and Incorporation of Scientific Information Affect Stakeholder Perspectives on Resource Management Decisions?,” http://web.mit.edu/dusp/epp/music/pdf/jpeyser.thesis.FINAL.pdf
Consensus-based approaches have been used to address some of the inadequacies of NEPA
AND
have ignored or taken for granted the questions of scientific and technical information.
A2: This is about NEPA
True, but it is about focus groups who get mad about lack of federal involvement that are environmental issues
4. This also massively mitigates solvency – the long-term time and cost of public battles is what batters energy development – the CP ensures pragmatic policy decisions
Harter 97 – Professor @ Vermont Law School
Philip J., Visiting Associate Prof and Dir, Program on Consensus, Democracy, and Governance, Vermont Law School, Duke Law Journal, April
The most well developed of these techniques, other than the public hearings and meetings
AND
was one of the aspects of the process they considered most valuable. 48
5. The plan takes three years
Siobhan Mee, Executive Director of the Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review, Fall, 1997
(25 B.C. Envtl. Aff. L. Rev. 213)
Another criticism of traditional rulemaking is that it is slow and cumbersome. 14 Major rules require an average of three and one-half years for their creation and promulgation. 15 A subsequent court challenge, which EPA estimates to be an eighty-five percent possibility for each of its regulations, may delay the implementation of a rule even further. 16

2. Textual severance – We don’t need to compete on certainty but they have to defend it- “should” requires immediacy and certainty
Summer, ’94 (Justice, Oklahoma Supreme Court, http://www.oscn.net/applications/oscn/DeliverDocument.asp?CiteID=20287#marker3fn14)
The legal question to be resolved by the court is whether the word "should
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. 336, 337, 27 L.Ed. 201 (1882).  

Insert Reg-Neg Good block

Theory – CP Legitimate
Our interpretation – counterplans that recommend plan but don’t fiat passage are good – counterplans that contingently fiat passage are bad- solves their offense by eliminating CPs like consult and QPQ
Allowing Reg-Neg CPs is good- key to check a large topic with no unifying themes between the 6 energies and two mechanisms, key to access the lit base on rhetorical commitment versus material action, gives the aff built-in solvency deficit ground by saying the plan wouldn’t be implemented
Grounded in the literature – there is a widespread push to include energy policy in regulatory negotiations
Diamond 11 (Michael, Ohio State University College of Law, Ohio State Journal on Dispute Resolution, “’Energized Negotiations’: Mediated Disputes over the Siting of Interstate Electric Transmission Lines”, L/X) CC
A Department of Energy-commissioned study of the national electric grid described the public
AND
satisfaction from participants in both the procedure and results of collaborative rulemaking. n231
There are advocates for individual energies – proves the CP is entirely researchable
Nolon Director of Land Use Law Center at Pace University Law School ’11 (Sean, “Negotiating the Wind: A Framework to Engage Citizens in Siting Wind Turbines,” Cardozo Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 12 no. 2, accessible online via http://cojcr.org/vol12no2/327-372.pdf, Mike)
The benefits of reg-neg include greater access to key information, ability to
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That same open access to information can be used in wind siting negotiations.
Net Benefits don’t check – the aff fiats through implementation – it’s the only way we can actually engage the solvency of the aff

Case
Thorium doesn’t solve risk of prolif – produces even more bomb-making material
Makhijani and Boyd, 9 (Arjun, President of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, holds a Ph.D. in engineering (specialization: nuclear fusion) from the University of California at Berkeley, and Michele, former director of the Safe Energy Program at Physicians for Social Responsibility, Staff Scientist at the Institute for IEER, “Thorium Fuel: No Panacea for Nuclear Power”, July 2009, http://ieer.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/thorium2009factsheet.pdf) WP

Not a Proliferation Solution¶ Thorium is not actually a “fuel” because it
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the same temptation to reprocess as today’s once-through uranium fuel cycles.

Reprocessing increases the risk of nuclear terrorism – you make the waste stealable  
UCSUSA, 2011 April 5th, Union of concerned scientists, Nuclear Reprocessing: Dangerous, Dirty, and Expensive, http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_risk/nuclear_proliferation_and_terrorism/nuclear-reprocessing.html
While some supporters of a U.S. reprocessing program believe it would help
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of this material that it has proven impossible to keep track of it accurate

ely in a timely manner, making it feasible that the theft of enough plutonium
AND
than 500 metric tons.¶ Reprocessing would increase the ease of nuclear proliferation.

Any form of nuclear will drastically increase the risk of successful proliferation
Diesendorf, 2011 Spring, Demystification of Nuclear Energy, Mark Diesendorf is an Australian academic and environmentalist, known for his work in promoting environmentally sustainable practices in industry. He currently teaches Environmental Studies at the University of New South Wales, Australia. http://www.ies.unsw.edu.au/docs/DemystificationNuclearEnergyMD.pdf
Neutrons are also released, which can split more uranium-235, which releases
AND
successfully tested nuclear bombs based on reactor-grade plutonium. (Roberts,
undated)
2NC Overview

The disad outweighs and turns the case – 

A) Key timeframe distinction – link timeframe outweighs impact timeframe – the 1NC Hitchens evidence indicates that other nations will preempt US tech if they think the US is trying to pursue space dominance – means only the disad can turn the case

B) Magnitude – the Mitchell evidence indicates that space preemption would spill over to land wars – other nations would perceive the threat and attack with nuclear or biological weapons in the midst of crisis

C) Probability – Mitchell indicates that space warfare can be triggered by tech accidents and miscalculation – means intervening actors can’t check

  Turns the case – preemption causes debris and prevents solvency

Forden 8 - Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Geoffrey, Astropolitics, 6:138–153, “VIEWPOINT: CHINA AND SPACE WAR,” Ebsco Political Science)

If the short-term military consequences to the U.S. were not
AND
of collisions that renders space unusable from hundreds to thousands of years.14

  Here’s an external impact – the perception of weaponization causes war with Russia and China and leads to ground attacks

Hitchens 2 (Theresa, Center for Defense Information Vice President, http://www.cdi.org/missile-defense/spaceweapons.cfm, 4-18-02, “Weapons in Space: Silver Bullet or Russian Roulette? The Policy Implications of U.S. Pursuit of Space-Based Weapons”)

Could a Space Race Undercut U.S. Military Dominance? The United States
AND
strategic and direct military risks, and the costs, of weaponizing space.

  War with Russia is the only existential risk

Bostrum 02 – professor of philosophy at Oxford (March, Nick, “Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards,” Journal of Evolution and Technology, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html)

A much greater existential risk emerged with the build-up of nuclear arsenals in
AND
preludes to the existential risks that we will encounter in the 21st century.

Prolif Module

  The perceptions of US space dominance leads to prolif and kills international norms

Katz-Hyman 10 (Michael Katz-Hyman and Michael Krepon, Katz is a research assistant at Stimson and Krepon is the co-founder of Stimson, and director of the South Asia and Space Security programs. Space Weapons and Proliferation, The Stimson Institute. 12/17/10. NP. http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/Space_Weapons_and_Proliferation.pdf DM) 

We argue that additional proliferation of nuclear weapons, rather than new arms races,
AND
, and  hedging strategies against a more worrisome future are likely to multiply.   

  Prolif dramatically increases the risk of accidental, intentional, or terror-based nuclear war

Utgoff 2 - Deputy Director of Strategy, Forces, and Resources @ the Institute for Defense Analyses (Victor, Survival, “Proliferation, Missile Defense and American Ambitions”, 44:2, Summer, p. 87-90)

Many readers are probably willing to accept that nuclear proliferation is such a grave threat
AND
a hill to bury the bodies of dead cities or even whole nations.  

Economy Module

  Loss of satellites would destroy the global economy – communications and banking

Donahue, 10 – USAF Major (Jack, “CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON: A SCENARIO-BASED FUTURE EFFECT OF ORBITAL SPACE DEBRIS,” https://www.afresearch.org/skins/rims/q_mod_be0e99f3-fc56-4ccb-8dfe-670c0822a153/q_act_downloadpaper/q_obj_af691818-359f-4999-be24-f88ca154bd94/display.aspx?rs=enginespage)

So what would it be like living in any of these scenarios? The world
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advanced warning of a launched nuclear attack against the US or its allies.

  Economic Collapse leads to aggression and nuclear war - empirically

O’Donnell, 09 (2/26/09, Sean, “Will this recession lead to World War III?” http://www.examiner.com/x-3108-Baltimore-Republican-Examiner~y2009m2d26-Will-this-recession-lead-to-World-War-III, JMP)

Could the current economic crisis affecting this country and the world lead to another world
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possibility of World War III is averted. However sometimes history repeats itself. 

Warming
The rest of the world is transitioning- even China will cap emissions
Lovins 2012 (Amory, physicist, environmental scientist, writer, and Chairman/Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, Oxford MA, A Farewell to Fossil Fuels: Answering the Energy Challenge, Foreign Affairs, March/April, proquest)
The United States cannot afford to keep waiting for a gridlocked Congress to act while
AND
States'. No treaty compelled Beijing's leadership-just enlightened self-interest.
Global oil demand decreasing, efficiency and clean tech increasing now
Maugeri 2012 (Leonardo, Research Fellow of the Geopolitics of Energy Project at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Oil: The Next Revolution, June, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Oil-%20The%20Next%20Revolution.pdf)
Of course, it is possible that sometime in this decade a resurgence of demand
AND
dissemination of energy alternatives will reduce the impact of oil in global economies.

Thorium, not renewable, is the best way to fight climate change -  renewable can’t match nuclear’s energy output
New Scientist, 2011 March 26th, “Rescuing Nuclear Power” Vol. 209 Issue 2805, Lexis, V. Guevara
For some, nuclear energy, in particular thorium, is the best way to
AND
flammable. If solid rods catch fire they release plumes of radioactive smoke.

Impact O/V
DA outweighs and turns the case—Relations are key to arms reduction—Russian launch destroys the U.S. within thirty minutes and escalates into every impact in the book. The two largest nuclear arsenals in the world simultaneously exploding causes waves of diseases and firestorms destroying support systems—they do not have an impact of greater magnitude

Shortest time-frame
Mintz 1 (Morton, February 26, “Two Minutes to Launch,” The American Prospect, http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=two_minutes_to_launch)
Hair-trigger alert means this: The missiles carrying those warheads are armed and
AND
would be, basically, a nuclear war by checklist, by rote."
Conflict turns the case—Nuclear conflict makes developing nuclear plants impossible—They’d be destroyed before construction would even be completed
Relations solves prolif—Relations means they can continue arms reduction talks, that’s Collins and Rjonski
Relations solve space—Two faster countries to get to space working together means they can get to space—Remember Sputnik and Apollo

Obama win results in the AFF
Roy 8/28/12 (Manik Roy, The Vice President for Strategic Outreach for the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, The Forecast: Partly Clear, Partly Hazy, AUGUST 28, 2012, http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/sizing-up-romney-and-obama-ene.php)
We recently published a nonpartisan voter guide on the candidates' records and statements on climate
AND
, including the wind production tax credit, and also for continued research.
Tensions are still high and so is risk of conflict
Ron Rosenbaum, graduated from Yale University in and won a Carnegie Fellowship to attend Yale's graduate program,He wrote for the The Village Voice for several years, leaving in 1975 after which he wrote for Esquire, Harper's, High Times, Vanity Fair, New York Times Magazine, and Slate 5-9-2009 http://www.slate.com/id/2191104/pagenum/3
Of course we all think the days when we have to be concerned about such
AND
ratchet up again. As they have, alas, recently but unmistakably.

Link
Nuclear is unpopular—Costs too much and trades off with energies the GOP likes, that’s US News
Thorium reactors too theoretical and expensive—Extremely unpopular
Eifion Rees for the Ecologist guardian.co.uk, Thursday 23 June 2011 11.52 EDTDon't believe the spin on thorium being a greener nuclear option Ecologist: It produces less radioactive waste and more power but it remains unproven on a commercial scale. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/23/thorium-nuclear-uranium

China did announce this year that it intended to develop a thorium MSR, but
AND
greater, which is why no government has ever continued their funding.'
Nuclear power unpopular – poll counts, alternative support, safety
Pew Research Center, 3/21/2011 Opposition to Nuclear Power Rises Amid Japanese Crisis
Support for Offshore Oil and Gas Drilling Rebounds, http://www.people-press.org/2011/03/21/opposition-to-nuclear-power-rises-amid-japanese-crisis/
Not surprisingly, public support for the increased use of nuclear power has declined amid
AND
Japan while 10% say plants in the United States are less safe.
Obama backing off support of nuclear power now because they know the link is true
Levine 9/7 (Greg, former managing editor of Firedoglake, and contributing writer for Truthout, former strategic consultant, doing branding, positioning, and communications for numerous media concerns, consumer products and services companies, political campaigns, not-for-profits, and civic and quasi-governmental organization,former public interest lobbying and organizing on Capitol Hill, specializing in extradition law, intelligence abuse, and first amendment issues, http://capitoilette.com/2012/09/07/obama-drops-nuclear-from-energy-segment-of-convention-speech/)
In the wake of Fukushima, where hundreds of thousands of Japanese have been displaced
AND
his second shot at casting for the future, nuclear power is political deadweight
UQ
1NC Silver evidence says newest analysis of polling data indicates Obama is ahead and gaining ground in key swing states- he’s keeping the convention bounce and is even getting ahead in North Carolina- even if they win indicts that say Romney is actually ahead somewhere, Obama’s the only one gaining ground now- 84% chance he wins
Obama will win- ahead in key swing states- most recent polling proves- but it’s not locked in
Silver 9/27/2012 (Nate, Sept. 26: Could 2012 Be Like 2008?, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/27/sept-26-could-2012-be-like-2008/)
There’s no point in putting it gently: Mitt Romney had one of his worst
AND
states where he’s likely to underachieve his 2008 numbers by several percentage points.
Obama will win- but the plan could change it
Cohn 9/26/2012 (Nate, elections blogger for the New Republic, if you’re from Whitman and you’re reading this, you can’t disagree with it; former intern at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, NDT double-octofinalist and all-around awesome debate person, Daily Breakdown: Obama's Bounce Cascades Across Battleground States, http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107752/daily-breakdown-obamas-bounce-cascades-across-battleground-states#)
In Ohio, Romney’s problems extend beyond his four or five point deficit. His
AND
far this week don't show signs of such a swing in Romney's direction.

Obama’s ahead on the economy and in swing states
Sargent 9/26/2012 (Greg, Washington Post reporter and blogger, Why the polls may be shifting, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/why-the-polls-may-be-shifting/2012/09/26/0ab5763e-0809-11e2-a10c-fa5a255a9258_blog.html)
A lot of the commentary about the national and state polls that are shifting away
AND
will improve if Obama’s policies are given more time. And so on.
Obama will win- base turnout
Bouie 9/26/2012 (Jamelle, Writing Fellow for The American Prospect, graduate of the University of Virginia, Among Obama supporters, enthusiasm hasn’t dimmed, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/among-obama-supporters-enthusiasm-hasnt-dimmed/2012/09/26/cb65e624-07e7-11e2-9eea-333857f6a7bd_blog.html)
A common theme we keep hearing from conservatives who are unhappy with the public polls
AND
groups will enter November highly energized, and ready to reelect the president.

Tournament: ISU | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
1NC
Off

Expansion of nuclear power makes accidents more likely—Reactors designs and fuel types are irrelevant
Ramana 11 (MV, With the Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton University and is on the Coordinating Committee of the Coalition for Nuclear Disarmament and Peace, 11 Costs, risks, and myths of nuclear power, “No escape from accidents,” http://www.nirs.org/international/reachingcriticalwillreport.pdf)
In the aftermath of Fukushima and, twenty five years earlier, Chernobyl, it
AND
, though, our experience is too limited to make any reliable predictions.
Extinction
Lendman 11 – Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (Stephen, 03/ 13, “Nuclear Meltdown in Japan,” http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2011/03/13/nuclear-meltdown-in-japan)
Reuters said the 1995 Kobe quake caused $100 billion in damage, up to
AND
potentially millions under a worse case scenario, including far outside East Asia. 

Off
Text: The Department of Energy should alter the Quadrennial Technology Review to include a recommendation to increase loan guarantees for the expansion of nuclear power in the United States.
Competes---the CP’s policy statement is not legally binding---it doesn’t enact the plan, it simply recommends its mandates
Charles H. Koch 5, the Dudley W. Woodbridge Professor of Law, William and Mary School of Law, Spring 2005, “Policymaking by the Administrative Judiciary,” Alabama Law Review, 56 Ala. L. Rev. 693, p. lexis n110 E.g., Consol Edison Co of New York v. FERC, 315 F.3d 316, 323 (D.C. Cir 2003)
"Policy statements" differ from substantive rules that carry the "force of law
AND
Administrative Open Mind, 41 DUKE L J 1497, 1503 (1992).
Solves the Case---the practical result is the same as binding law---the policy statement sends the signal of the plan and causes agencies to implement it
James Hunnicutt 99, J.D., Boston College Law School, December 1999, “NOTE: Another Reason to Reform the Federal Regulatory System: Agencies' Treating Nonlegislative Rules as Binding Law,” Boston College Law Review, 41 B.C. L. Rev 153, p. lexis
Depending on whether a rule is adopted with or without notice-and-comment
AND
the rule in court and have given up on the appeals process. n156
The CP avoids politics—Plan and perm link
Connor N. Raso 10, J.D., Yale Law School, January 2010, “Note: Strategic or Sincere? Analyzing Agency Use of Guidance Documents,” The Yale Law Journal, 119 Yale L.J. 782, p. lexis
Guidance documents generally attract less attention from Congress and the President, giving agency leaders
AND
cases where Congress and the President are likely to intervene against the agency.
Off
Obama will win- most recent polls and momentum are on his side
Silver 9/28/2012 (Nate, Genius, writer for FiveThirtyEight, now under the New York Times, The blog is devoted to rigorous analysis of politics, polling, public affairs, sports, science and culture, largely through statistical means, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/28/sept-27-the-impact-of-the-47-percent/)
Thursday’s Polls¶ What we can say with more confidence is that Mr. Romney
AND
Nov. 6 forecast, up from 81.9 percent on Wednesday.
Nuclear Power is unpopular – funding, transitions from other issues, and tradeoffs

US News, 2009 Nov 30th, Democrats Change Tune on Nuclear Energy, http://www.usnews.com/news/energy/articles/2009/11/30/democrats-change-tune-on-nuclear-energy

This calculation is outraging many of the administration's environmental-minded supporters, who say
AND
someone's gain will most likely be someone else's loss in the energy world.

Base Mobilization key to winning the election—empirically proven for incumbents
WSJ 5/22 (The Wall Street Journal “As in 2004, energizing the base a key to victory” 5/22/12 http://www.myfoxdfw.com/story/18583004/as-in-2004-energizing-the-base-a-key-to-victory#ixzz1MekSBwU) KY
President Barack Obama does not often dwell on similarities to his predecessor, George W
AND
But 2004 suggests that both sides' strategies may start with mobilizing the core.
Obama win key to US-Russia relations – Romney’s agenda is belligerent and controversial.
Reichardt 7/9. (Adam is the Managing Editor of New Eastern Europe, “Considering Russia in the Voting Booth,” New Eastern Europe, 2012, http://www.neweasterneurope.eu/node/382)

Obama’s policy AND American foreign policy.

Extinction
Collins and Rojansky 10 – * U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation from 1997 to 2001, AND deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment (8/18/10, James F. Collins, Matthew Rojansky, Foreign Policy, “Why Russia Matters,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=viewandid=41409,)
A year and a half after Barack Obama hit the "reset" button with
AND
to maintain relations with Russia. And good relations would be even better.

Off
Plan: The United States federal government ought to make available a permanent production tax credit for systems referenced in United States Code Title 42, Chapter 100, § 9210(2).
Solves Manufacturing sector
BusinessWire 12/12/11 (New Study: Wind Energy Success Story at Risk with 54,000 American Jobs in the Balance, http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20111212005589/en/Study-Wind-Energy-Success-Story-Risk-54000) kc
“American manufacturing jobs are coming back, with tens of thousands of new jobs
AND
its products, the PTC effectively expires at the end of this year.

Shifts world away from nuclear, solving prolif
Desombre, 10 (Elizabeth R, Frost Associate Professor of Environmental Studies and Associate Professor of Political Science focusing on international environmental politics @ Wellesley,  “The United States and Global Environmental Politics: Domestic Sources of U.S. Unilateralism”, 2010, http://www.polisci.ufl.edu/usfpinstitute/2010/documents/readings/DeSombre%20Chapter.pdf) WP
U.S. leadership (or even level of participation) in international environmental
AND
, pushed by industry impacted by¶ international (or subnational) regulation.

Leadership

1. No nuclear renaissance—Laundry list of barriers
   Slocum 12 (Tyson Slocum dir. Public Citizen’s Energy Program, 2-13-2012, "NRC Approval Doesn’t Signal Much," National Journal, http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/02/is-america-poised-for-nuclear.php)
   The Nuclear Regulatory AND  renewable technologies.
   2. Any form of nuclear will drastically increase the risk of successful proliferation
   Diesendorf, 2011 Spring, Demystification of Nuclear Energy, Mark Diesendorf is an Australian academic and environmentalist, known for his work in promoting environmentally sustainable practices in industry. He currently teaches Environmental Studies at the University of New South Wales, Australia. http://www.ies.unsw.edu.au/docs/DemystificationNuclearEnergyMD.pdf
   Neutrons are also released, which can split more uranium-235, which releases
   AND
   successfully tested nuclear bombs based on reactor-grade plutonium. (Roberts,
   undated)
   3. Reprocessing kills the NPT and causes international backlash
   UCSUSA, 2011 April 5th, Union of concerned scientists, Nuclear Reprocessing: Dangerous, Dirty, and Expensive, http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_risk/nuclear_proliferation_and_terrorism/nuclear-reprocessing.html
   U.S. reprocessing would undermine the U.S. goal of halting
   AND
   , all reprocessing technologies are far more proliferation-prone than direct disposal.
   Reprocessing would hurt U.S. nuclear waste management efforts.
   4. No nuclear – it is becoming less cost competitive
   Green Chip Stocks, August 20th 2012, GE (NYSE:GE) Slams Economics of Nuclear Is GE Turning Cold on Nuclear?, http://www.greenchipstocks.com/articles/ge-nysege-slams-economics-of-nuclear/2097
   As the whole world is fixated on the debate about on using and not using
   AND
   nuclear plans, strong local opposition particularly in India has stalled those plans.
   5. Proliferation will be slow
   Waltz 00 (Kenneth Waltz, Professor of Political Science at UC Berkeley, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, v1 n1, Winter/Spring 2000)
   It is now estimated that about twenty–five countries are in a position to
   AND
   , in which one or two states per decade gradually develop nuclear weapons.
   6. No domino effect – it’s empirically denied
   Bergenas 10 (Research Associate at the Henry L. Stimson Center, Johan, “The Nuclear Domino Myth”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66738/johan-bergenas/the-nuclear-domino-myth)
   But there's one problem with this "nuclear domino" scenario: the historical record
   AND
   was there even a two-country nuclear arms race in the region.
   7. Nuke plants are vulnerable to terrorism – they fail safety tests and a successful attack doesn’t even require technical knowledge
   Stone, 11 (Daniel, senior political reporter @ Newsweek, “Flirting With Disaster;
   Every few years the defenses of the nation's nuclear plants are tested. What's scary is how often they fail”, 1/17/11, SCIENCE; Pg. 38 Vol. 157 No. 03 ISSN: 0028-9604, lexis) WP
   In early 2009 a team of terrorists managed to enter a nuclear-power plant
   AND
   would cause it to self-ignite and spread radiation through the air.¶
   8. Zero risk of nuclear terrorism
   Mearsheimer 11 (Professor of Political Science at UChicago, John, January, “Imperial by Design,” http://nationalinterest.org/article/imperial-by-design-4576?page=10, Mike)
   The fact is that states have strong incentives to distrust terrorist groups, in part
   AND
   by accident-causing deer, or by severe allergic reactions to peanuts.”

Natural Gas

1. Transition Turn—
   a. SQ will decrease emissions by 80% by 2050- maintaining the transition key to solve warming and avoid peak oil impacts
   Lovins 2012 (Amory, physicist, environmental scientist, writer, and Chairman/Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, Oxford MA, A Farewell to Fossil Fuels: Answering the Energy Challenge, Foreign Affairs, March/April, proquest)
   Weaning the United States from those fossil fuels would require two big shifts: in
   AND
   last, Americans could make energy do their work without working their undoing.
   b. Nuke power trades off with renewables, jacks short-term transition key to solve warming and peak fossil fuel
   Conolley 2011 (Heather, PhD Candidate in Political Science at UC- Santa Barbara, The Renaissance of Nuclear Energy in the Shadow of Climate Change, PhD Dissertation, proquest)
   Given the long lead time associated with development and reactor  construction, nuclear opponents argue
   AND
   2011). Thus opportunity costs for constructing nuclear reactors must be  carefully considered.
   c. Transition away from oil NOW key
   Yetiv and Fowler 2011 (Dr. Steve Yetiv is University Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Old Dominion University, Eric Fowler is a Military Intelligence Officer in the US Army and PhD student at Old Dominion in International Studies, The Challenges of Decreasing Oil Consumption, Political Science Quarterly126. 2, proquest)
   No one can predict an oil peak definitely or guess its specific effects. However
   AND
   oil, the less serious would be the potential effects of peak oil.
   d. Peak oil destroys the global economy
   Seljom and Rosenberg 2011 (Pernille and Eva, Institute for Energy Technology (Norway), A study of oil and natural gas resources and production, International Journal of Energy Sector Management5. 1(2011): 101-124. Proquest)
   The long-term development of energy systems is characterised by a high degree of
   AND
   of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production.
   2. Warming occurs in the winter and at night
   Eschenbach 10 (Independent Climate Researcher, Climate Specialties: Tropical tropospheric amplification, constructal theories of climate, “Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics … and Graphs”, Watts Up With That)
   So I decided to look for a way to present exactly the same information so
   AND
   above is probably shown somewhere about twice as large as it actually is …
   3. Err NEG on irreversibility- The impact of nuclear war is instantaneous- Climate change is progressive, allowing us to adapt
   McGwire 5 (Michel, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Jan, “The Rise and Fall of the NPT”, International Affairs: 81, 1 pg. 115-140)
   Risk is the product of the consequences of a calamity and the probability of its
   AND
   the threat of global nuclear war, but climate change cannot be evaded.
   4. Natural gas makes nuclear impossible – no market parity for a decade
   Forbes 3-29-12 (“Fracking Gas Is Writing America’s Energy Policy,” http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2012/03/29/fracking-gas-is-writing-americas-energy-policy/, Mike)
   Much of what the United States might have achieved through a visionary energy policy—
   AND
   for society, but it’s a whole new challenge for the energy industry.”
   5. Methane emissions are not anthropogenic and don’t cause their impact – prefer our evidence it cites international bodies of scientists
   Lewis 9-25-12 (Lewis, “Arctic Methane Emissions Have Been Going on for Ages,” http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/09/25/dont_panic_arctic_mission_finds_methane_emissions_old_news/, Mike)
   Scientists returning from a seaborne expedition to the Arctic say that the ongoing panic in
   AND
   effervescing," explains Professor Doktor Tina Treude, another of the expedition scientists.
   6. Econ decline doesn’t cause war
   Barnett 9, senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC, contributing editor/online columnist for Esquire, 8/25,
   (Thomas P.M, “The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis,” Aprodex, Asset Protection Index, http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules~-~-security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx)
   When the global financial crisis struck roughly a year ago, the blogosphere was ablaze
   AND
   . Our new Africa Command, for example, hasn't led us to anything
   6. Heg decline doesn’t cause war either
   Buzan 11 (Barry, London School of Economics, Department of International Relations, "A World Order Without Superpowers: Decentred Globalism")
   In 2004 I argued, in line with much mainstream thinking, that the most
   AND
   to keep the world order from falling into 1930s-style imperial competition.
   7. Chemical Turn—
   a. Natural gas is critical to chemical and the steel industry.
   Pooley -12 (ERIC POOLEY, Environmental Defense Fund,  AUGUST 10, 2012, Natural Gas – A Briefing Paper For Candidates, http://blogs.edf.org/energyexchange/2012/08/10/natural-gas-a-briefing-paper-for-candidates/)
   While a majority of Americans remain unfamiliar with hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking,"
   AND
   sense of the potential for U.S. energy independence and energy security
   b. Chem industry solves everything—Impact is extinction
   Baum, editor-in-chief of the American Chemical Society's Chemical and Engineering News 1999(Rudy M. Baum, CandE News, “Millennium Special Report,” 12-6-99, http://pubs.acs.org/hotartcl/cenear/991206/7749spintro2.html)
   The pace of change in today's world is truly incomprehensible. Science is advancing on
   AND
   up in real public fear of genetic manipulation and corporate control over food.
   Solvency
   Nuclear expansion impossible – laundry list of supply and sitting constraints
   Zyga 11 (Lisa “Why nuclear power will never supply the world’s energy needs,” PhysOrg, http://phys.org/news/2011-05-nuclear-power-world-energy.html
   The 440 commercial nuclear reactors in use worldwide are currently helping to minimize our consumption
   AND
   reactors, even though commercial fusion is still likely a long way off.

Block
A2 – I didn’t bring enough cards up (Add ons)

Grid
We deter it
Doesn’t say who would attack
Nukes destroy the grid

Ozone
Wouldn’t cause extinction
Easterbrook 3 (senior fellow at the New Republic, “We're All Gonna Die!”, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.07/doomsday.html?pg=1andtopic=andtopic_set=)
If we're talking about doomsday - the end of human civilization - many scenarios simply
AND
as he was, wrote Remembrance of Things Past while lying in bed.

Nuclear conflict would devastate the Ozone—Causes rapid warming which accelerates the impact
Food Prices
Food Prices hit 20 year high
Corrigan 11 (Annie, Indiana Public Media Announcer, World Food Prices Soar To 20-Year High, http://indianapublicmedia.org/eartheats/world-food-prices-soar/)
Prices for cooking oils, grains, sugar and meat have soared to levels not
AND
response to sky-rocketing prices for sugar, flour, and oil. 

DA Turns it anyways—Nuclear conflict makes food scarce—Skyrockets prices
Impact O/V
DA outweighs and turns the case—Relations are key to arms reduction—Russian launch destroys the U.S. within thirty minutes and escalates into every impact in the book. The two largest nuclear arsenals in the world simultaneously exploding causes waves of diseases and firestorms destroying support systems—they do not have an impact of greater magnitude

Shortest time-frame
Mintz 1 (Morton, February 26, “Two Minutes to Launch,” The American Prospect, http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=two_minutes_to_launch)
Hair-trigger alert means this: The missiles carrying those warheads are armed and
AND
would be, basically, a nuclear war by checklist, by rote."
Conflict turns the case—Nuclear conflict makes developing nuclear plants impossible—They’d be destroyed before construction would even be completed
Relations solves prolif—Relations means they can continue arms reduction talks, that’s Collins and Rjonski
Relations solve HEG—Super powers working together good

Obama win results in the AFF
Roy 8/28/12 (Manik Roy, The Vice President for Strategic Outreach for the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, The Forecast: Partly Clear, Partly Hazy, AUGUST 28, 2012, http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/sizing-up-romney-and-obama-ene.php)
We recently published a nonpartisan voter guide on the candidates' records and statements on climate
AND
, including the wind production tax credit, and also for continued research.

A2 – Impact D
Tensions are still high and so is risk of conflict
Ron Rosenbaum, graduated from Yale University in and won a Carnegie Fellowship to attend Yale's graduate program,He wrote for the The Village Voice for several years, leaving in 1975 after which he wrote for Esquire, Harper's, High Times, Vanity Fair, New York Times Magazine, and Slate 5-9-2009 http://www.slate.com/id/2191104/pagenum/3
Of course we all think the days when we have to be concerned about such
AND
ratchet up again. As they have, alas, recently but unmistakably.

Link
Nuclear is unpopular—Costs too much and trades off with energies the GOP likes, that’s US News
Thorium reactors too theoretical and expensive—Extremely unpopular
Eifion Rees for the Ecologist guardian.co.uk, Thursday 23 June 2011 11.52 EDTDon't believe the spin on thorium being a greener nuclear option Ecologist: It produces less radioactive waste and more power but it remains unproven on a commercial scale. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/23/thorium-nuclear-uranium

China did announce this year that it intended to develop a thorium MSR, but
AND
greater, which is why no government has ever continued their funding.'
Nuclear power unpopular – poll counts, alternative support, safety
Pew Research Center, 3/21/2011 Opposition to Nuclear Power Rises Amid Japanese Crisis
Support for Offshore Oil and Gas Drilling Rebounds, http://www.people-press.org/2011/03/21/opposition-to-nuclear-power-rises-amid-japanese-crisis/
Not surprisingly, public support for the increased use of nuclear power has declined amid
AND
Japan while 10% say plants in the United States are less safe.
Obama backing off support of nuclear power now because they know the link is true
Levine 9/7 (Greg, former managing editor of Firedoglake, and contributing writer for Truthout, former strategic consultant, doing branding, positioning, and communications for numerous media concerns, consumer products and services companies, political campaigns, not-for-profits, and civic and quasi-governmental organization,former public interest lobbying and organizing on Capitol Hill, specializing in extradition law, intelligence abuse, and first amendment issues, http://capitoilette.com/2012/09/07/obama-drops-nuclear-from-energy-segment-of-convention-speech/)
In the wake of Fukushima, where hundreds of thousands of Japanese have been displaced
AND
his second shot at casting for the future, nuclear power is political deadweight
A2 – Thumpers
Group their thumpers—
Presidential debates don’t matter
Marlantes 9/14/2012 (Liz, covers politics for the Christian Science Monitor and is a regular contributor to the Monitor's political blog, DC Decoder, Swing state polls: Is Mitt Romney Running Out of Time?, http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2012/0914/Swing-state-polls-Is-Mitt-Romney-running-out-of-time)
But what about the debates? Can’t Romney turn things around with a surprisingly strong
AND
The person who’s leading now – going into the debates – usually wins.”
Thumpers don’t really matter- prefer our robust forecasting models from Silver- only the plan would structurally change the election, not tiny scandals
Silver 9/9/2012 (Nate, Genius, writer for FiveThirtyEight, now under the New York Times, The blog is devoted to rigorous analysis of politics, polling, public affairs, sports, science and culture, largely through statistical means, Sept. 9: Call It as You See It, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/10/sept-9-call-it-as-you-see-it/#more-34347)
Finally, keep in mind that our forecasts normally are pretty stable. More often
AND
. (Although he gained ground among Ipsos’s broader sample of registered voters).
A2 – Link Turns
GOP will claim the win – this sucks up any risk of a link turn
JULIANO and SCHOR, ’12 POLITICS: Lame duck may seal fate of transportation, wind, as time crunch intensifies¶ SECTION: SPOTLIGHT Vol. 10 No. 9¶ LENGTH: 2225 words¶ Nick Juliano and Elana Schor, EandE reporters Energy and Environment Daily, L/N

One lobbyist for a major wind developer, who was granted anonymity to discuss the situation candidly, sounded hopeful that reports that senators on both sides of the aisle were beginning to get serious about dealing with the extenders, suggesting that Republicans may want to be able "to claim some credit for this" and would be willing to reach a deal.

Your polls and statistics wrong
Daily Kos, June 5th 2012, Nuclear Power and Public Opinion: What the polls say, http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/06/05/1097574/-Nuclear-Power-and-Public-Opinion-What-the-polls-say

Public opinion on nuclear power matters. Should we build new reactors or not?
AND
further back. Yes, that includes GOP/Fox News favorite Rasmussen.

A2 – Econ Matters

Economy-only models are empirically wrong and have zero predictive value
Silver 2012 (Nate, Genius, Models Based on ‘Fundamentals’ Have Failed at Predicting Presidential Elections, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/26/models-based-on-fundamentals-have-failed-at-predicting-presidential-elections/)
The 1988 presidential election was a victory for political science. Michael Dukakis had led
AND
almost literally no predictive power, whether looked at individually or averaged together.

UQ
1NC Silver evidence says newest analysis of polling data indicates Obama is ahead and gaining ground in key swing states- he’s keeping the convention bounce and is even getting ahead in North Carolina- even if they win indicts that say Romney is actually ahead somewhere, Obama’s the only one gaining ground now- 84% chance he wins
Obama will win- ahead in key swing states- most recent polling proves- but it’s not locked in
Silver 9/27/2012 (Nate, Sept. 26: Could 2012 Be Like 2008?, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/27/sept-26-could-2012-be-like-2008/)
There’s no point in putting it gently: Mitt Romney had one of his worst
AND
states where he’s likely to underachieve his 2008 numbers by several percentage points.
A2 – UQ Overwhlems
The plan could still make Romney win
CBS News 9/27/2012 (Can Romney still turn things around?, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57521661/can-romney-still-turn-things-around/)
Still, a strong debate performance for Romney could, if nothing else, change
AND
can't, history suggests he is unlikely to emerge victorious on Election Day.

Obama will win- but the plan could change it
Cohn 9/26/2012 (Nate, elections blogger for the New Republic, if you’re from Whitman and you’re reading this, you can’t disagree with it; former intern at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, NDT double-octofinalist and all-around awesome debate person, Daily Breakdown: Obama's Bounce Cascades Across Battleground States, http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107752/daily-breakdown-obamas-bounce-cascades-across-battleground-states#)
In Ohio, Romney’s problems extend beyond his four or five point deficit. His
AND
far this week don't show signs of such a swing in Romney's direction.

Obama’s ahead on the economy and in swing states
Sargent 9/26/2012 (Greg, Washington Post reporter and blogger, Why the polls may be shifting, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/why-the-polls-may-be-shifting/2012/09/26/0ab5763e-0809-11e2-a10c-fa5a255a9258_blog.html)
A lot of the commentary about the national and state polls that are shifting away
AND
will improve if Obama’s policies are given more time. And so on.
Obama will win- base turnout
Bouie 9/26/2012 (Jamelle, Writing Fellow for The American Prospect, graduate of the University of Virginia, Among Obama supporters, enthusiasm hasn’t dimmed, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/among-obama-supporters-enthusiasm-hasnt-dimmed/2012/09/26/cb65e624-07e7-11e2-9eea-333857f6a7bd_blog.html)
A common theme we keep hearing from conservatives who are unhappy with the public polls
AND
groups will enter November highly energized, and ready to reelect the president.

Block Solvency Wall
The counterplan solves the entire case---it has the Department of Energy alter the QTR expressing support for the mandates of the plan---that non-binding agency guidance document shapes the public debate over future policy and alters budgets to fund the plan – that’s Tollefson
The result of the CP is indistinguishable from the plan--- it signals that the DOE has embraced the end-point of the plan---nobody will perceive a difference between the plan and the CP for the purpose of solvency and if they do, they’ll comply with the CP as though it were binding---that’s Hunnicut.
The QTR will shape future policies – it’s a guide to budget planners.
Science Business -11(DoE Science Review Boosts Transport, Grid, Quicker Payoffs, September 27, 2011, http://sciencebusiness.technewslit.com/?p=6226)
The U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) today released its first
AND
perspectives. It also should serve as a guide for annual budget planners.

And, priority - Inclusion in the QTR causes policy to get focused on and developed first.
Koonin -11 (Statement of Steven E. Koonin, Under Secretary for Science, U.S. Department of Energy, Before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources  United States Senate, November 15, 2011 , http://www.energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=46e0d57d-7a61-4aa1-afcf-be399658c694)
As Secretary Chu noted in his introduction to the QTR, the Department’s energy technology
AND
engineering research will vary according to the status and significance of the technology. 

Agency policy statements determine the direction of future policy---it becomes the starting point against which future policy is measured
Connor N. Raso 10, J.D., Yale Law School, January 2010, “Note: Strategic or Sincere? Analyzing Agency Use of Guidance Documents,” The Yale Law Journal, 119 Yale L.J. 782, p. lexis
Policy statements are intended to provide the public with a sense of an agency's position
AND
may have important policy implications if they alter the behavior of regulated parties.

Agencies are overwhelmingly likely to comply with the memo---zero risk of their solvency deficits because the CP changes the calculus of the staff responsible for implementing the plan
Robert A. Anthony 92, Professor of Law, George Washington University, June 1992, “ARTICLE: INTERPRETIVE RULES, POLICY STATEMENTS, GUIDANCES, MANUALS, AND THE LIKE -- SHOULD FEDERAL AGENCIES USE THEM TO BIND THE PUBLIC?,” Duke Law Journal, 41 Duke L.J. 1311, p. lexis
General knowledge of normal bureaucratic behavior permits us to postulate a basic general proposition about
AND
a rigidly applied rule, with the effect of binding private parties. n314

Empirics prove that the QER solves.
Friedmann -11 (Julio Friedmann, Julio Friedmann is the Carbon Management Program Leader for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Why We Need a Quadrennial Energy Review, April 3, 2011, http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2011/04/why-we-need-a-quadrennial-energy-review/73371/)
First, the U.S. needs internal agreement on the specifics of our
AND
One can also imagine a plan that suits our needs as a nation.
It sends the same signal as the plan
Robert A. Anthony 98, Professor of Law, George Washington University, August 11, 1998, “Unlegislated Compulsion:
How Federal Agency Guidelines Threaten Your Liberty,” online: http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa312.html
There is a proper and indeed often valuable role for the agency policy statement:
AND
, while a policy statement that the agency treats as binding does not.

The practical, functional result of the CP is indistinguishable from the plan---despite the profound legal difference
Tom J. Boer 99, Attorney, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of General Counsel, Spring 1999, “ARTICLE: DOES CONFUSION REIGN AT THE INTERSECTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE LAW?: REVIEW OF INTERPRETIVE RULES AND POLICY STATEMENTS UNDER JUDICIAL REVIEW PROVISIONS SUCH AS RCRA SECTION 7006(a)(1),” Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review, 26 B.C. Envtl. Aff. L. Rev. 519, p. lexis n43 See, e.g., Asimow, supra note 19, at 383-84.
Although the theoretical difference between the legal effect of legislative and nonlegislative rules is clear
AND
effect is profoundly different, the real-world consequences are usually identical.

It shapes budget requests.
National Geographic -11 (Mason Inman, Cutting Oil Use Should Be Focus of U.S. Energy Research, New Roadmap Says, September 29, 2011, http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2011/09/29/cutting-oil-use-should-be-focus-of-u-s-energy-research-new-roadmap-says/)
A major study modeled after goal-setting reports from the Departments of Defense and
AND
for 80 percent for America’s electricity to come from clean sources by 2035.

The DOE is widely popular – cp causes massive support for the plan.
Koonin -11 (Statement of Steven E. Koonin, Under Secretary for Science, U.S. Department of Energy, Before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources  United States Senate, November 15, 2011 , http://www.energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=46e0d57d-7a61-4aa1-afcf-be399658c694)
As a result of the Review, we found that looking just at DOE:
AND
science into its technology programs to better inform and support the Department’s investments.  
A2: Perm – do the cp
Permuting to do the CP is severance---the CP clearly doesn’t make binding law---it’s a policy memo which expresses support for the concept of the plan, but in no way mandates it---this distinction is legally significant and borne out in the way that agencies actually make policy---that’s Koch.
The CP doesn’t just PIC out of certainty---there is zero world in which voting neg includes mandating that any part of the plan be done---there is nothing in the CP that could reasonably constitute the plan---it’s different than a CP that, for instance, conditioned the plan on the outcome of some review process---our CP never contains the possibility of mandating the adoption of the plan---means the perm has to be severance. 

a. Resolved means definitive action—not a delay
Dictionary.com no date (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/resolved)
 “Resolved: to come to a definite or earnest decision about; determine”

b. Should implies a swift obligation to act
American Heritage® Dictionary ’96  1996, 1992 by Houghton Mifflin Company, www.dictionary.com, accessed 4/2/01
should (shd)    v. aux. Past tense of shall.
1.Used to express obligation or duty: You should send her a note. 

The plan and the CP are categorically different---the distinction’s legally significant
Charles H. Koch 5, the Dudley W. Woodbridge Professor of Law, William and Mary School of Law, Spring 2005, “Policymaking by the Administrative Judiciary,” Alabama Law Review, 56 Ala. L. Rev. 693, p. lexis
The question of application is complicated because administrative rules may have differing force and administrative
AND
different type of pronouncement from legislative rules, and this difference should be reflected

 in the weight given by an agency's adjudicators. n109 A nonlegislative rule is a device for announcing policy. n110 They are intended to disclose the agency's views and offer guidance regarding agency law. n111 Thus, an agency must *716 obey these pronouncements as well as legislative rules unless a deviation can be justified. n112

Err neg---this area of law is confusing---the aff and their authors probably get it wrong
Charles H. Koch 5, the Dudley W. Woodbridge Professor of Law, William and Mary School of Law, Spring 2005, “Policymaking by the Administrative Judiciary,” Alabama Law Review, 56 Ala. L. Rev. 693, p. lexis
Administrative agencies adjudicate massive numbers of individual disputes, far exceeding the number resolved by
AND
require this Article's analysis to ultimately reach beyond the implications of these studies.

Policy statements are advisory and concern the likely trajectory of future agency action---they don’t bind anyone in the present
Richard E. Levy 11, the J.B. Smith Distinguished Professor of Constitutional Law, University of Kansas, and Robert L. Glicksman, the J.B. and Maurice C. Shapiro Professor of Environmental Law, The George Washington University Law School, February 2011, “Agency-Specific Precedents,” Texas Law Review, 89 Tex. L. Rev. 499, p. lexis
Policy statements are "statements issued by an agency to advise the public prospectively of
AND
the agency, and courts will not treat the rule as binding. n110

The practical impact of the CP is irrelevant from a legal and competition standpoint---which means it’s possible for the CP to have the same on the ground result as binding law but still be legally distinct
James Hunnicutt 99, J.D., Boston College Law School, December 1999, “NOTE: Another Reason to Reform the Federal Regulatory System: Agencies' Treating Nonlegislative Rules as Binding Law,” Boston College Law Review, 41 B.C. L. Rev 153, p. lexis 

1. Factors Distinguishing Nonlegislative from Legislative Rules To distinguish whether a rule is nonlegislative
   AND
   . n115 Nonlegislative rules, however, sometimes have practical legal effects. n116
   A2: Recommendation CPs Bad
   No link to any of their offense---the CP never fiats any part of the plan---the only action mandated by the CP is the release of a memo supporting the end-point of the plan, which we argue causes the functionally same on-the-ground implementation---this distinction is of paramount importance---their theory args presume the CP mandates the plan---this should be a question of solvency evidence, not theoretical legitimacy.
   Hold the line on their claims of what our CP justifies---it’s fundamentally distinct from the worst CPs like consult, condition the plan, etc because it never even has the possibility of mandating the adoption of the plan.
   This style of CP is vital to neg ground---every negative argument relies on holding the aff responsible for defending a mandated increase in exploration---means the CP is a fundamental test of the desirability of the resolution. Err neg---the “development” side makes limiting the topic impossible and the vastly different mechanisms mean what little unifying neg ground exists should be preserved at all costs.
   Lots of ground exists---the CP addresses a key legal question
   Connor N. Raso 10, J.D., Yale Law School, January 2010, “Note: Strategic or Sincere? Analyzing Agency Use of Guidance Documents,” The Yale Law Journal, 119 Yale L.J. 782, p. lexis
   Scholars and policymakers alike have devoted increasing attention to a seemingly obscure question: do federal agencies improperly issue "guidance documents" n1 in place of legally binding "legislative rules" on a widespread basis? n2 This attention has been motivated by concern that agencies frequently use guidance documents to avoid procedures n3 intended both to facilitate public participation in the regulatory process 

and to enable the elected branches of government to monitor agencies more easily. n4
AND
determine whether agencies commonly issue guidance to avoid the notice and comment process.

Uniqueness wall
Green Chips Stocks – Less competitive due to other fuels. Even their 1AC makes that claim 

Slocum – explains other countries don’t see a benefit to it anymore, this evidence is newest, from late September. Assumes current barriers and increasing prices of other fuels 

Nuclear expansion impossible – laundry list of supply and sitting constraints
Zyga 11 (Lisa “Why nuclear power will never supply the world’s energy needs,” PhysOrg, http://phys.org/news/2011-05-nuclear-power-world-energy.html
The 440 commercial nuclear reactors in use worldwide are currently helping to minimize our consumption
AND
reactors, even though commercial fusion is still likely a long way off.

Prolif Wall
Fast Reactors increase risk of proliferation – transport of materials
The Guardian, July 30th 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/30/fast-breeder-reactors-nuclear-waste-nightmare, Are fast-breeder reactors the answer to our nuclear waste nightmare?
Proponents of fast reactors see them as the nuclear application of one of the totems
AND
in preparation for recycling "would be dangerously vulnerable to theft or misuse."

Reprocessing increases the risk of nuclear terrorism – you make the waste stealable  
UCSUSA, 2011 April 5th, Union of concerned scientists, Nuclear Reprocessing: Dangerous, Dirty, and Expensive, http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_risk/nuclear_proliferation_and_terrorism/nuclear-reprocessing.html
While some supporters of a U.S. reprocessing program believe it would help
AND
than 500 metric tons.¶ Reprocessing would increase the ease of nuclear proliferation.

IFR reprocessing makes the weaponization of waste easier
Diesendorf, 2011 Spring, Demystification of Nuclear Energy, Mark Diesendorf is an Australian academic and environmentalist, known for his work in promoting environmentally sustainable practices in industry. He currently teaches Environmental Studies at the University of New South Wales, Australia. http://www.ies.unsw.edu.au/docs/DemystificationNuclearEnergyMD.pdf
A proposed variant of the fast breeder is the integral fast reactor. It is
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. This is the reason why the US government¶ discontinued research on this

2NC Prolif Defense
Ext. 1 – Prolif Slow
Extend Waltz – proliferation will be slow. Their authors are paranoid and continually over-state the risk. Since the 60s, they have claimed we were on the brink of a massive wave of proliferation, but there are still less than 10 countries with nukes and only a couple more are threatening
And, it will stay slow – 3 reasons
First, Capability—
Iran proves it takes decades to develop an arsenal; new weapons don’t appear out of thin air
Fox 7 (Stuart, author for Scienceline, “Why is it taking Iran so long to make a nuclear weapons? Didn’t it only take the US four years to invent them?”)  http://scienceline.org/2007/11/20/ask-fox-nuclearbombs/
Iran and its nuclear program appears a great deal in the news these days, even with estimates that they are five to ten years away from completing a nuclear weapon. To understand why it’s taken Iran over 18 years to build a bomb, one needs to consider the steps it takes to build a bomb, and differences between the conditions in which Iran and the U.S. pursued this technology.
And, expenses – the sheer number of workers and materials means that developing weapons won’t be quick.
Fox 7 (Stuart, author for Scienceline, “Why is it taking Iran so long to make a nuclear weapons? Didn’t it only take the US four years to invent them?”)  http://scienceline.org/2007/11/20/ask-fox-nuclearbombs/
According to “The Making of the Atomic Bomb” by Richard Rhodes, to
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week, took three years to produce enough properly enriched uranium for the bomb
Second, Motive – states don’t want instant recluse status
Elhefnawy 8 (Nader, B.A international relations, author books, “The Next Wave of Nuclear Proliferation”)  http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/08autumn/elhefnawy.pdf
Long-established research strongly indicates that the motivation to build nuclear weapons is more
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little as $500 million, less than the price of a modern warship
Third, No Arms Race – nuclear weapons make force comparisons irrelevant
Waltz 95 (The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate, p. 29-30)
One may believe that old American and Soviet military doctrines set the pattern that new
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ranges neither side need respond to increases in the other side’s military capabilities.
Ext. 2 – No Domino Effect
No nuclear domino effect—
a. It’s Slow—65 years since the invention of the bomb—Yet only 9 states have nukes
b. Disarm—South Africa, Belarus, and Kazakhstan all voluntarily disarmed at the same time other states were rearming, there’s no correlation
c. Prefer it—History proves our argument
That’s All Bergenas
And, proliferation pessimism is wrong—Loads of empirical data and historical records prove nuclear proliferation has a stabilizing effect
Sechser 8 (Todd S. Sechser, University of Virginia 2008 CQ Press “No”164-174)
The idea that the United States should aggressively pursue nuclear nonproliferation rests in part on
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, a more stable, peaceful, and secure world than one without.
You should base your decision calculus on empirical data only
Sechser 8 (Todd S. Sechser, University of Virginia 2008 CQ Press “No”164-174)
The historical data presented here suggest that nuclear weapons have had a sobering effect on
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the nuclear future, we must first acknowledge the lessons of the past.

Uniqueness
Global oil demand decreasing, efficiency and clean tech increasing now
Maugeri 2012 (Leonardo, Research Fellow of the Geopolitics of Energy Project at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Oil: The Next Revolution, June, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Oil-%20The%20Next%20Revolution.pdf)
Of course, it is possible that sometime in this decade a resurgence of demand
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dissemination of energy alternatives will reduce the impact of oil in global economies.
Oil’s not competitive now
Lovins 2012 (Amory, physicist, environmental scientist, writer, and Chairman/Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, Oxford MA, A Farewell to Fossil Fuels: Answering the Energy Challenge, Foreign Affairs, March/April, proquest)
U.S. gasoline demand peaked in 2007; the oil use of the
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uncompetitive even at low prices before it becomes unavailable even at high prices.
Renewable shift in electricity now
Lovins 2012 (Amory, physicist, environmental scientist, writer, and Chairman/Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, Oxford MA, A Farewell to Fossil Fuels: Answering the Energy Challenge, Foreign Affairs, March/April, proquest)
New coal and nuclear plants are so uneconomical that official U.S. energy
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within smarter grids, in markets that clear faster and serve larger areas.

Uniqueness: Global
The rest of the world is transitioning- even China will cap emissions
Lovins 2012 (Amory, physicist, environmental scientist, writer, and Chairman/Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, Oxford MA, A Farewell to Fossil Fuels: Answering the Energy Challenge, Foreign Affairs, March/April, proquest)
The United States cannot afford to keep waiting for a gridlocked Congress to act while
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States'. No treaty compelled Beijing's leadership-just enlightened self-interest.
Links: Increases Warming
Nuclear increases warming- has equivalent emissions to fossil fuels, and uranium mining causes more fossil fuel use
Mez 2012 (Dr. Lutz, Coordinator of the Berlin Centre for Caspian Region Studies at the Free University of Berlin, Nuclear energy–Any solution for sustainability and climate protection?, Energy Policy, Volume 48, September 2012, Pages 56–63, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.047)
On top of this, viewed from a systemic perspective, nuclear power plants are
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stay below 550 ppme2 CO2 within the next ∼30–40 years.”
Expanding nuclear power would require the dirtier ore
Englert, Krall and Ewing 2012 (Matthias Englert a1, Lindsay Krall a2 and Rodney C. Ewing a3
a1 Darmstadt University of Technology, Germany; englert@ianus.tu-darmstadt.de
a2 Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company, Stockholm, Sweden; lindsay.krall@skb.se
a3 The University of Michigan, USA; rodewing@umich.edu, Is nuclear fission a sustainable source of energy?, MRS Bulletin / Volume 37 / Issue 04 / April 2012 , pp 417-424, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1557/mrs.2012.6)
Scenarios for demand and consumption¶ Most studies that envision increasing nuclear power to reduce
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, but the advantages and disadvantages of each approach must be weighed carefully.
Krypton and tritium emissions cause climate change
Mez 2012 (Dr. Lutz, Coordinator of the Berlin Centre for Caspian Region Studies at the Free University of Berlin, Nuclear energy–Any solution for sustainability and climate protection?, Energy Policy, Volume 48, September 2012, Pages 56–63, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.047)
Nuclear power plants also contribute to climate change by emitting radioactive isotopes such as tritium
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and socially compatible energy technologies—especially the use of smart energy services.

Links: Renewable Tradeoff
Nuclear trades off with renewables- the grid can’t do both, investors will only pick one
Denholm et al 2012 (Paul, Ph.D. in land resources/
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Energy Policy, Volume 44, May 2012, Pages 301–311)
Nuclear power is one of the primary alternatives to renewables for reducing carbon emissions in
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together is important, and methods to increase their compatibility must be examined.

Link Outweighs Turns
Our tradeoff link is immediate- their turns are incredibly far-off- even if they win the net direction of emissions they offset immediate reductions
Clarke, 12 (Renfrey, PhD in social sciences from University of New South Wales, qualified and highly experienced editor, a journalist and a specialist in international studies, “Why nuclear is no climate change solution”, 7/28/12, http://www.greenleft.org.au/node/51697)WPish
Nuclear fission is an innately dangerous process – and the nuclear industry’s record of handling
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too. Only, it can’t be done through relying on nuclear energy.
They wouldn’t start reductions for decades- past the tipping point
Makhijani and Boyd 2010 (Arjun and Michele, electrical and nuclear engineer who is President of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research; former director of the Safe Energy Program at Physicians for Social Responsibility; Small Modular¶ Reactors¶ No Solution for the Cost, Safety, and Waste Problems¶ of Nuclear Power, http://www.psr.org/nuclear-bailout/resources/small-modular-reactors-no.pdf)
Not a climate solution¶ Efficiency and most renewable technologies¶ are already cheaper than
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safety and proliferation risks, as well as new¶ waste disposal problems.

Methane 2NC
Methane emissions are not anthropogenic and don’t cause their impact – prefer our evidence it cites international bodies of scientists
Lewis 9-25-12 (Lewis, “Arctic Methane Emissions Have Been Going on for Ages,” http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/09/25/dont_panic_arctic_mission_finds_methane_emissions_old_news/, Mike)
Scientists returning from a seaborne expedition to the Arctic say that the ongoing panic in
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effervescing," explains Professor Doktor Tina Treude, another of the expedition scientists.

Negative feedback loops solve
Voice of Russia 9-18-12 (“Methane Emission in the Arctic – a Possible Key to the Global Warming,” http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_09_18/Methane-emission-in-the-Arctic-a-possible-key-to-the-global-warming/, Mike)
That is a complicated question. Scientists who study this, and there are quite
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methanotrophic bacteria. Curiously enough they consume methane during the course of their life
, they do so because if we combine methane with oxygen we get energy.
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a situation where balance between production and consumption of methane will be reached.

Turn – the plan increases methane emissions – they cause a livestock production to shift to other countries – prefer our evidence – it comparatively outweighs methane from fossil fuels
Drovers 9-28-12 (“Cutting Livestock Greenhouse Gases Requires Effort,” http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/Cutting-livestock-greenhouse-gases-requires-effort-171594261.html?ref=261, Mike)
Regulating livestock greenhouse gas emissions could shift livestock production to unregulated, less developed countries
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said. "This negates greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the wealthy countries."
Economy Defense – Ext. 1 – No War
Decline doesn’t cause war—History proves, there’s 36 ongoing conflicts yet none of them attributed to the recession, that’s Barnett
Prefer it—Their evidence is biased by economic Stockholm syndrome
Dornbrook 10 (Reporter for the Kansas City Business Journal, Citing Brian Wesbury – Chief Economist for First Trust Advisors and Author (James, "Economist: Ongoing rebound gives reason for optimism", January 8th 2010, May 21st 2010, http://kansascity.bizjournals.com/kansascity/stories/2010/01/04/daily46.html)
People should start being more optimistic about the economy because it probably will continue rebounding
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out in March 2009 and that recovery is under way, he said.
Economic decline does not cause war
Miller 2 (economist, adjunct professor in the University of Ottawa’s Faculty of Administration, 2K2 consultant on  international development issues, former Executive Director and Senior Economist at the World Bank, 2000 (Morris, Interdisciplinary Science Reviews, “Poverty as a cause of wars?” http://www.management.uottawa.ca/miller/poverty.htm)
The question may be reformulated. Do wars spring from a popular reaction to a
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by increasing repression (thereby using one form of violence to abort another).
Globalization checks conflict
Zakaria 9 – Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard, Editor of Newsweek (Fareed, “The Secrets of Stability,” Newsweek, 12/12/09, http://www.newsweek.com/id/226425)
Political and economic stability have each reinforced the other. And the third force that
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Most have been there, done that. And they know the price.

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge: 

Gonzaga Round 1 1NC

1NC K

Technological advancements intentionally mask destruction of the environment

Luke 1 (Timothy W., Prof @ Virginia Tech "World Health and the Environment: Globalization’s Ambiguities." http://www.cddc.vt.edu/tim/tims/TIM807.htm)
2001 could be better understood as the year in which ambiguities are overcome, and
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for whom democratic procedures are invalid" (Beck, 1992: 14).

Environmental management causes ecological degradation by viewing Nature as an arrange-able resource for human consumption- justifies domination and destruction

Katz 2k (Eric, associate professor of philosophy and director of the Science, Technology, and Society Program, New Jersey Institute of Technology, "Nature as Subject: Human Obligation and Natural Community.")
Even more important, the question arises whether or not Nature can heal these wounds
AND
Human science and technology will fix, repair, and improve natural processes. 

Alt is to reject techno-managerialism, only then can we establish a relationship with nature

McWhorter 92 (Ladelle, Prof of Philosophy and Women, Gender %26 Sexuality studies @ Univ. of Richmond  "Guilt as Management Technology: A Call to Heideggerian Reflection" Heidegger and the Earth, pg. 1-4)
Heidegger calls us to give thought to — or give ourselves over to thought of
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also ground the most basic patterns of our current ways of being human.

CP 1

The United State Federal Government should ban all financial energy incentives.

Energy subsidies must be eliminated to spur innovation and become competitive in the market

Phillips, president of Americans for Prosperity, the nation’s leading free-market grass-roots organization and From, Illinois state director of Americans for Prosperity, the nation’s leading free-market grass-roots organization, 6-28-12 (Tim Phillips and David From, "Eliminate Energy Subsidies", State Journal Register, http://www.sj-r.com/opinions/x1762345964/Tim-Phillips-and-David-From-Eliminate-energy-subsidies?zc_p=0-http://www.sj-r.com/opinions/x1762345964/Tim-Phillips-and-David-From-Eliminate-energy-subsidies?zc_p=0)====

Obviously, it’s time for lawmakers to realize that if a new technology truly has
AND
their professed free-market principles and get rid of these special giveaways.

Politics is a net benefit

Randazzo, ’12 INCENTIVES AT EVERY TURN By Ryan Randazzo, Posted 5/6/2012 The Arizona Republic http://www.usatoday.com/USCP/PNI/Business/2012-05-06-PNI0506biz-subsidiesPNIBrd_ST_U.htm
Amid all the debate regarding subsidies, political polar opposites have found common ground calling
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), you need to work together with people that are aligned with you."

CP 2

The fifty United States and relevant territories should provide Cash Grants to nontaxable entities for community and residential solar power. 

States solve best and the feds will model- starting with the states is key to avoid politics

Thomson and Arroyo 2011 (Vivian Thomson is an Associate Professor in the Departments of
AND
, 29 Va. Envtl. L.J. 1, lexis)

Overview¶ ¶ When it comes to fixing the broken politics of global warming,
AND
policymaking demands a new, "upside-down" cooperative federalism model.

Nat Gas DA

Natural gas is dominating the energy sector now – abundant shale gas supplies

Conrad 8/9/12 (Roger S. Conrad is editor of Utility Forecaster, August 9, 2012, Natural Gas Prices Tick Up On Hot Weather, But Investors Shouldn’t Expect Much More Upside, http://seekingalpha.com/article/795201-natural-gas-prices-tick-up-on-hot-weather-but-investors-shouldn-t-expect-much-more-upside)
Four months ago, natural gas bottomed out at a 10-year low of
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return to even last summer’s price range of %244 to %245.

Solar energy is zero sum with natural gas – there is a direct trade-off.

Jerusalem Post -12 (Jerusalem Post, November 12, 2010, The politics of solar power, DAVID SHAMAH , Lexis)
UN IS SUN, and electricity is electricity - or should be, says MK
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Corporation main lines, and the electricity generated is transferred to IEC substations.

Natural gas is critical to the steel industry, competitiveness, economy and energy independence.

Gibson -12 (Thomas Gibson, January 17, 2012,  President %26 CEO, American Iron and Steel Institute, Steel Industry Poised to Gain with Gas, http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/01/whats-ahead-for-natural-gas.php)
Domestic natural gas holds the potential to yield unsurpassed economic and energy benefits for the
AND
that the current low cost and availability are driving this remarkable manufacturing renaissance.

Resource tension causes nuclear conflict with Russia and China – the impact is extinction

Henderson 7, Besline Research CEO/President/consultant, (Bill, CounterCurrents.org, February 24, "Climate Change, Peak Oil, and Nuclear War", http://www.countercurrents.org/cc-henderson240207.htm-http://www.countercurrents.org/cc-henderson240207.htm, 7/9/08)
Countercurrents.org-http://www.countercurrents.org/cc-henderson240207.htm By Bill Henderson  Damocles had one life threatening sword hanging by a
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to extinction for humanity and much of what we now recognize as nature. 

Elections

Obama will win but it’s close- enthusiasm gap and best polling data proves

Silver 9/13/2012 (Nate, Genius, writer for FiveThirtyEight, now under the New York Times, The blog is devoted to rigorous analysis of politics, polling, public affairs, sports, science and culture, largely through statistical means, Sept. 12: Polls Since Conventions Point to Decline in ’Enthusiasm Gap’, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/13/sept-12-polls-since-conventions-point-to-decline-in-enthusiasm-gap/~~%23more-34463)
On average among the five polling results, however, the gap has been 1
AND
the popular vote and an 80 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.

Deficit is a hot-button issue—political hesitance renewable energy incentives

Mahn, ’12 Global Insight¶ March 14, 2012¶ US Senate Kills Renewables Tax Credit Extension; Solar Power on the Rise¶ BYLINE: Claudia Mahn¶ SECTION: In Brief
Significance: The Senate’s failure to extend the support measures stems from a reluctance among
AND
-2,800MW, as a backlog of large projects is completed.

Base Mobilization key to winning the election—empirically proven for incumbents

WSJ 5/22 (The Wall Street Journal "As in 2004, energizing the base a key to victory" 5/22/12 http://www.myfoxdfw.com/story/18583004/as-in-2004-energizing-the-base-a-key-to-victory~~%23ixzz1MekSBwU-http://www.myfoxdfw.com/story/18583004/as-in-2004-energizing-the-base-a-key-to-victory) KY

President Barack Obama does not often dwell on similarities to his predecessor, George W
AND
But 2004 suggests that both sides’ strategies may start with mobilizing the core.

The impact is US-Sino Conflict—

2 internal links – Romney will label china a currency manipulator and Obama will do it if he’s going to lose

Dawson and Mason, 12
Stella and Jeff, Columnists @ Reuters, 2/13, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/13/us-usa-campaign-obama-china-idUSTRE81C0DG20120213**
Tough calculus for Obama in Chinese leader’s election-year visit¶ Even as he
AND
as we have been in the past, about where we have differences."

ENSURES ESCALATING TENSIONS – RESULTS IN TBILL SELL OFF, ECONOMIC COLLAPSE AND RELATIONS FAIL.

MCNALLY 9. ~Chris, research fellow and political economist @ East-West Center, "CHINA-U.S. ECONOMIC RELATIONS: FROM SYMBIOSIS TO RUPTURE?" East West Center — Feb 8 — http://www.eastwestcenter.org/news-center/east-west-wire/china-us-economic-relations-from-symbiosis-to-rupture/-http://www.eastwestcenter.org/news-center/east-west-wire/china-us-economic-relations-from-symbiosis-to-rupture/~~

The unraveling of this synergy is already creating tensions, recently illustrated by the war
AND
constant dialogue is urgently required to steer this fragile relationship through tough times. 

U.S.-China conflict is the most probable scenario for great power war

IHT ’02 (International Herald Tribune, 12-26, Lexis)
Preoccupation with the war against terror, Iraq and now North Korea must not blind
AND
responsible international face, particularly in improving U.S.-Chinese relations.

1NC Grid

Grid Modernization Unlikely – No One Wants to Do It

NYT August 27, 2008 Wind Energy Bumps Into Power Grid’s Limits By Matthew L. Wald
Energy Department leaders say that, however understandable the local concerns, they are getting
AND
to fight the political battles necessary to get such a transmission backbone built.

Cant Solve Grid Problems

Tverberg, 12 (Gail, received a M.S. in Mathematics from the University of Illinois, Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries, Much of her early career was spent with CNA Insurance Companies in Chicago, Illinois. There she was involved in both pricing and reserving of casualty insurance coverages, "The Six Obstacles Facing US Wind Energy", The Oil Drum, 1/19/12, lexis) WP
Obstacle 4: In the US, we do not have an electrical grid that
AND
very difficult, such as that currently done by helicopters in remote locations.

Lack of Modernization Prevents Scalability

NYT August 27, 2008 Wind Energy Bumps Into Power Grid’s Limits By Matthew L. Wald
Texas and California have recently made some progress in building transmission lines for wind power
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fuels, the grid has not been modernized, especially for wind energy."

No blackouts—05 Energy bill solves
IEEE 7 (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc, "Reliability and Blackouts," 4-25-2007+, http://www.electripedia.info/reliability.asp)
After the major blackouts of 1965, the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC
AND
reliability and safety of the nation’s electric power system for decades to come.

1NC Econ

Job Numbers Are Inflated

David W. Kreutzer, Ph.D. Research Fellow in Energy Economics and Climate Change 2012 June 28 The Federal Green Jobs Agenda: What the Job Counts Actually Tell Us http://www.heritage.org/research/testimony/2012/06/job-counts-and-the-federal-green-jobs-agenda
On March 22, 2012, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issued
AND
,313 green jobs in the septic tank and portable toilet servicing industry.

And Drains From More Productive Sectors of the Economy

Nicolas Loris Policy Analyst at The Heritage Foundation’s Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies February 2, 2012 at 3:00 pm We Need Wind Subsidies Like We Need VHS Subsidies http://blog.heritage.org/2012/02/02/we-need-wind-subsidies-like-we-need-vhs-subsidies/
Remember VHS? Imagine this:¶ VHS has been a staple of the American way
AND
energy tax credit makes as much sense as a VHS production tax credit.

====Foreign Contracts Are Offsetting Market Uncertainty ====
Jacobs 7/30 (Jennifer, Contributor to the Des Moines Register, Wind energy tax credit splits Obama, Romney, http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20120730/NEWS09/120730024/Wind-energy-tax-credit-splits-Obama-Romney) kc
Potential job loss? ’We just don’t know’ Just how many layoffs could Iowa
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United States, so they would likely avoid significant layoffs, he said.

No chance of economic competition – Germany already beat us

The Gazette, August 3rd~2012, Germany tops world market for solar-energy generation; Facility building frenzy adds 4,300 megawatts, Lexis~
Germany installed a record of around 4,300 megawatts of solar-power capacity
AND
well below the retail electricity price of 23 cents per kw/h.

1NC Solvency

Solar companies provide a laundry list of fail buckets

Globe and Mail, July 14th ~2012, In the darkness, solar industry sees some light; As vanishing subsidies and plunging panel prices send companies into bankruptcy, there are some rays of hope signalling that this alternative energy may be on a path to recovery, Lexis~
~one~- Solyndra, an upstart California solar panel maker that got more than
AND
generators), withdrew an %24183-million initial public offering in April, 

Solar power ineffective investment even Jaba the Hut companies fail

Chumley, Cherly. BP gives up on solar power. 2/2/12. http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2012/02/02/bp-gives-solar-power-http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2012/02/02/bp-gives-solar-power**
BP, an energy company that won praise from environmental activists after adopting the slogan
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in an open marketplace against the reliability and low cost of fossil fuels."

Solar power has excess capacity in the squo, it is pointless to increase production incentives

Wang, Ucilia. 6/27/12. Forbes. Report: Solar panel supply will far exceed demand beyond 2012. http://www.forbes.com/sites/uciliawang/2012/06/27/report-solar-panel-production-will-far-exceed-demand-beyond-2012/-http://www.forbes.com/sites/uciliawang/2012/06/27/report-solar-panel-production-will-far-exceed-demand-beyond-2012/.
When solar equipment manufactures began posting big losses during 2011, forcing some to close
AND
half or plan to add more production lines in the next few years.

3. It doesn’t matter how much costs have changed, Americans still have perceptions it costs way too much and aren’t interested

Business Wire, April 25th ~2012, New Data Shows 97% of Americans Overestimate the Cost of Installing Solar Panels; National Survey Reveals Misconceptions Prevent 2 out of 3 Homeowners from Going Solar, Lexis~
Sunrun , the nation’s largest home solar company, today announced results of a nationwide
AND
solar within the next year if they knew cost were not a factor.
What Americans Think it Costs to Go Solar

Increasing production only drains already stressed non-resources, and links to climate change

McKinnon, Shaun. 01/17/10. Amid state’s push for solar power, water-supply worries arise.http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2010/01/17/20100117water-solar0117.html.
Arizona can offer solar-energy developers legendary sun-drenched skies and thousands of
AND
power projects are expected to develop. "With all the buzz about r
enewables, we better be careful that the solar energy we produce is not the
AND
, a community activist who has worked on a water-advisory group.

Concentrated Solar Power trends are misleading – it cant compete

PR Newswire, Feb 7th ~2012, Concentrating Solar Power (CSP), Lexis~
The seemingly smooth upward curve of CSP productions hides some facts that will impinge future
AND
are not permanent, they will retard implementation of CSP for a few years 

Round 1—2NC

State-level cash incentives are super-effective and make current federal tax credits work- solves all federal key warrants

Sarzynski et al 2012 (Andrea, assistant professor at the University of Delaware’s School of Public Policy %26 Administration and a faculty affiliate at the Delaware Environmental Institute, Jeremy Larrieu, Energy Industry Analyst at Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Gireesh Shrimali, Assistant Professor of Information Systems at the Indian School of Business, The impact of state financial incentives on market deployment of solar technology, Energy Policy, Volume 46, July 2012, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.032)
The impact of cash incentives on PV installations appears quite important to market deployment.
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short period of time after purchase (i.e., 90 days).

50 State Fiat Good

Key to education- 1NC Thomson and Arroyo says state-level action is necessary to understand national debates over energy- also state action on energy is common and in the lit

Hartley 11 (Todd Jefferson, JD, Associate at Watkins and Eager PLCC, University of Florida Journal of Law %26 Public Policy, "Handshake Deals; The Future of Interstate Agreements and the Interstate Compacts Clause", L/X) CC
Federalism is making a comeback in the United States. The federal government is both
AND
the classic indicia and contract tests when a potentially covert agreement is present.

Theory: General State Uniformity

====Uniform state action on energy has a precedent and is approved of by the feds====
Craig 10 (Robin Kundis, Associate Dean for Environmental Programs at Florida State University, "Constitutional Contours for the Design and Implementation of Multistate Renewable Energy Programs and Projects", http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1482611-http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1482611) CC
Conversely, coordinated single-state-based plans and laws that encourage production of
AND
Subsection acknowledges this possibility through recent examples in the conventional¶ energy context.

States have created interstate compacts on energy production before

Dhanju et al 11 (Amardeep, Jeremy Firestone, Willett Kempton, Center for Carbon Free Integration, University of Delaware, "Potential Role of Power Authorities in Offshore Wind Power Development in the US", http://www.google.com/url?sa=t%26rct=j%26q=%26esrc=s%26source=web%26cd=6%26ved=0CFUQFjAF%26url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ceoe.udel.edu%2Fwindpower%2Fresources%2FPower-Authorities_Energy-Policy-2011_Dhanju-et-al_Final-Proof.pdf%26ei=t74aULz5AajliQLwhIBw%26usg=AFQjCNGfeuq9kstITn8maTNiw82DHmKuvQ-http://www.google.com/url?sa=t%26rct=j%26q=%26esrc=s%26source=web%26cd=6%26ved=0CFUQFjAF%26url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ceoe.udel.edu%2Fwindpower%2Fresources%2FPower-Authorities_Energy-Policy-2011_Dhanju-et-al_Final-Proof.pdf%26ei=t74aULz5AajliQLwhIBw%26usg=AFQjCNGfeuq9kstITn8maTNiw82DHmKuvQ) CC
Interstate compacts are powerful, durable and adaptive tools for¶ promoting cooperative action among
AND
it would create a dedicated power authority to¶ provide the needed institutional framework

No Violates

Interstate compacts are used all the time – help maintain flexibility

DeGolian 12 (Crady, February 22, Council of State Governments, "Interstate Compacts as a Policy Option to Enhance the Transmission Line Siting Process", http://knowledgecenter.csg.org/drupal/content/interstate-compacts-policy-option-enhance-electric-transmission-line-siting-process-http://knowledgecenter.csg.org/drupal/content/interstate-compacts-policy-option-enhance-electric-transmission-line-siting-process) CC
Interstate compacts are contracts between two or more states creating an agreement on a variety
AND
use of interstate compacts to create administrative agencies to solve ongoing state problems.

Natural gas is critical to chemical and the steel industry.

Pooley -12 (ERIC POOLEY, Environmental Defense Fund,  AUGUST 10, 2012, Natural Gas – A Briefing Paper For Candidates, http://blogs.edf.org/energyexchange/2012/08/10/natural-gas-a-briefing-paper-for-candidates/)
While a majority of Americans remain unfamiliar with hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking,"
AND
sense of the potential for U.S. energy independence and energy security

Chem industry solves everything—Impact is extinction

Baum, editor-in-chief of the American Chemical Society’s Chemical and Engineering News 1999(Rudy M. Baum, C%26E News, "Millennium Special Report," 12-6-99, http://pubs.acs.org/hotartcl/cenear/991206/7749spintro2.html)
The pace of change in today’s world is truly incomprehensible. Science is advancing on
AND
up in real public fear of genetic manipulation and corporate control over food.

Solar Links

Solar power trades-off with natural gas production.

Moniz et al -11 (Ernest J, Chair, MIT Interdisciplinary Study, 6/09/2011, The Future of Natural Gas http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies/natural-gas-2011.shtml)
The displacement of gas is greater for solar than for wind, since solar production
AND
less-employed, single-cycle gas turbines and steam gas units.

Increased solar production tanks natural gas production – causes massive price volatility.

Moniz et al -11 (Ernest J, Chair, MIT Interdisciplinary Study, 6/09/2011, The Future of Natural Gas http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies/natural-gas-2011.shtml)
Although our analysis has been limited to a few alternative scenarios, we can observe
AND
of investment in natural gas generation capacity to ensure system reliability and efficiency.

UQ

Natural gas price down now

Deutch 8/14/12 (John Deutch is a professor at MIT, has served as undersecretary of energy, deputy secretary of defense, and director of the CIA, The U.S. Natural-Gas Boom Will Transform the World, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303343404577514622469426012.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)
Two summers ago, natural gas cost %244.50 per thousand cubic feet
AND
With such changes happening so fast, it’s timely to consider their implications.

Increased supply and inventories mean prices will lower now

Hurdle 8/14/12 (Jon Hurdle, AOL Energy, August 14, 2012, What Is Set to Drive Natural Gas Prices Lower?, http://energy.aol.com/2012/08/14/what-is-set-to-drive-natural-gas-prices-lower/)
Prices for natural gas are headed lower after a hot summer showed signs of the
AND
seasonal increase at only 1,477 bcf, the lowest since 1991.

Increased production of natural gas is reducing prices now– private sector is key

IER -12 (Institute for Energy Research, April 19, 2012, Abundant Natural Gas Means Low Prices, Increased Trade Potential, http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2012/04/19/abundant-natural-gas-means-low-prices-trade-potential/)
Natural gas production in the United States is hitting unprecedented highs, storage tanks are
AND
of new proposals for the use of abundant, affordable natural gas supplies.

Grid Advantage

No threat to power grids- their studies don’t take into account the laws of physics

Toor 10 (Amar Toor, "Don’t Worry, Terrorists Won’t Bring Down the U.S. Power Grid, Researchers Say", http://www.switched.com/2010/10/14/dont-worry-terrorists-wont-bring-down-the-u-s-power-grid-re/, 10/14/10, Accessed 7/13/12, WITASZEK)
Over the past few months, many politicians and national security experts have grown increasingly
AND
least amount of flow — it would be a massive waste of resources."

No impact to terrorists or solar storms- The GRID Act is already securing our grid from these threats

Schewe 10 (Phillip Schewe, ISNS, Phys.org, "Plans to Secure Power Grid From Terrorists, Solar Storms", phys.org/news195752582.html, 6/14/10, Accessed 7/18/12, KW)
Electricity is all around us. It lifts elevators, pumps gas, lights rooms
AND
the better to foil those who would plan terror attacks on the grid.

Nearly impossible to black out the power grid- hurricanes, physics prove

Brown 10 )Joshua E. Brown, staff writer at the University of Vermont, "Study: It’s Hard to Bring Down the Electric Grid", http://www.uvm.edu/~~uvmpr/?Page=News%26storyID=17119, 10/8/10, Accessed 7/14/12)
An important implication of Hines’s work, funded by the National Science Foundation, is
AND
says, "to really figure out how to make the grid fail." 

Solvency

Frontline Extensions

Ext – Too Expensive

Solar power fail —- its too expensive and comparatively worse for energy production than other alternatives.

Japan Times 3. ~Aug 14, "Alternative power is set to blow away the old" — lexis~
Solar power, too, will have a key role in the new energy marketplace, and worldwide sales of solar cells are rising 30 percent annually, but Brown is most enthusiastic about wind. "Solar cells are still too costly to supply the vast amounts of energy required to power a modern economy. For energy investors, growth in the future lies with wind and the hydrogen produced with cheap wind-generated electricity," he says.

Solar power isn’t even close to cost effective.

Walker 4. ~Cameron, freelance writer on wildlife and conservation biology "The Future of Alternative Energy" National Geographic News Oct 28 — http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/10/1028_041028_alternative_energy.html-http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/10/1028_041028_alternative_energy.html~~
Technological improvements have made solar-electric modules more cost-effective. In the 1980s the average price of energy captured with photovoltaics was 95 U.S. cents per kilowatt-hour. Today that price has dropped to around 20 cents per kilowatt-hour, according to Collins, of the American Solar Energy Society.
The cheaper rate is still more expensive than the average national price of electricity, which in 2003 was a little over 8 cents per kilowatt-hour, according to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Annual Energy Review. 

Solar power is comparatively the most expensive alternate energy source.

Moran 8. ~Alan, Director, deregulation at the Institute of Public Affairs, The Age, May 14, lexis~
The fractured push towards solar power is costly and mostly driven by politics, writes
AND
that, on the back of subsidies, are increasingly dotting the landscape.

Not cost effective – only 10% as efficient as conventional sources of energy.

Ausubel 7. ~Jesse, former member of the National Academy of Sciences and National Academy of Engineering, organizer of the first UN World Climate Conference in Geneva, main author of Changing Climate, "Renewable and Nuclear Heresies" International Journal of Nuclear Governance, Economy and Ecology, Vol 1 No 3 http://phe.rockefeller.edu/docs/HeresiesFinal.pdf-http://phe.rockefeller.edu/docs/HeresiesFinal.pdf~~
Although negligible as a source of electric power today, photovoltaics also earn a traditional
AND
, but only a few square kilometres have ever been manufactured in total.

Ext - Single Policies Ineffective

Singular alternative energy policies can’t solve energy independence.

San Antonio Express-News 8. ~July 1, 2008 "OUR TURN : Real energy policyis urgently needed" – LEXIS~
Sen. John McCain has proposed a %24300 million national prize for the development
AND
our national security, depriving unfriendly regimes of petrodollars and lowering energy costs.

Solar energy costs too much.

Business Times Singapore 8. ~"Managing energy, water resources" July 7 — lexis~
The three to four decades of improvements in alternative energy have made wind, solar power and high-tech batteries attractive. A caveat, though, is cost. One reason why green power costs much more than fossil fuels stems from how existing forms of renewable energy rely on subsidies or other forms of special treatment for their viability.

Renewable energy policies fail due to location obstacles.

Wright 8. ~Stephen J. Wright Administrator, Bonneville Power Administration United States Department of Energy, CQ Congressional Testimony June 17 – lexis~
It is important to remember that renewable electricity resources differ from coal, natural gas
AND
have not developed where the wind is blowing hard much of the time.

Ext – Solar

 Ineffective===

Solar panels are ineffective—will be much too large to be practical

Morris -02 (Robert Morris, received PH.D in Chemistry %26 edu. from Nebraska ’68, The Environmental Case for Nuclear Power, 2002, pub: Paragon House 2700 Univ. Avenue West st. Paul, Minnesota 55114, PG-153-4)
 Active solar collection is an entirely different story because it can be used to
AND
plants which have the same capacity usually occupy less than a square mile.

Solar power is inefficient and not competitive with nuclear power or oil.

Jean-Paul Renaud, Times Staff Writer. 2004 "The State; Mainstream Warming Up to Solar Power; More institutions are turning to photovoltaic technology in an effort to reap long-term savings. Critics contend it’s unreliable."  The Los Angeles Times April 4, 2004
Still, some believe investing in solar technology is not cost-effective. They
AND
has come a long way, but there’s still more progress to go."

Inefficient solar energy storage is hindering production.

Rowe 07 (Mark Rowe,  "Nanotechnology innovations offer new power possibilities", Petroleum Review, July 2007, Vol. 61, No. 726, pg. 6 , Lexis)
Dr de Mello is targeting two key applications: solar energy and high efficiency lighting
AND
, it will enable a step-change in solar energy production.’

Solar energy is unlikey – companies won’t create to expense and lack of land to  build them on.

Parker 08 (Charles Parker, Chair, ATAC Committee, ASM International,"Materials for advanced energy generation: new materials are under development to facilitate power generation by non-fossil sources at reasonable cost.", Advanced Materials %26 Processes, Volume 166, Issue 1, January 2008. pg. 53)
It is enticing to think that we could reduce combustion of fossil fuel to generate
AND
-up to produce that many solar cells would be even more difficult. 

Incentives Don’t Work

Empirically incentives don’t help solar power development – hurdles are too large.

Taylor 6. ~Jerry, director of natural resource studies @ Cato, "Corner Extra: Energy Yack, CATO Institute, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=5434-http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=5434~~
If those technologies have economic merit, no subsidy is necessary. If they don’t, then no subsidy will provide it. Let’s look at each of those technologies in turn.
Zero-emission coal-fired power plants are a figment of the imagination. As far as "clean coal" is concerned (which is not ’zero-emission’ by any means), it’s been the recipient of lavish government subsidy for 20 years now without even one single commercially viable facility to show for our past efforts. Those plants are still too expensive to compete in the market and investors won’t touch them.
Wind and solar power has been the recipient of 30 years worth of government largesse, yet neither has been able to gain any significant market share despite the handouts. Apparently, hope springs eternal. 

Solar power fails no matter how its designed.

Lehr 5. ~jay, science director for the heartland institute, heartland intstitute, 6/1/05, http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=17185-http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=17185~~
There are not many people left who believe acres and acres of mirrors following the
AND
only capture about 10 percent of the solar energy that strikes the cells.

1NC - Barriers to Solar Power

No Solar systems - costs too much, have long payback periods and there is not confidence in them.

Faiers and Neame -06 (Adam Faiersand Charles Neame, Institute of Water and Environment, Cranfield University at Silsoe, Silsoe, Bedfordshire, Energy Policy 34 (2006) 1797–1806,  http://ac.els-cdn.com/S0301421505000121/1-s2.0-S0301421505000121-main.pdf?_tid=423f6c26cae0684-http://ac.els-cdn.com/S0301421505000121/1-s2.0-S0301421505000121-main.pdf?_tid=423f6c26cae0684 Consumer attitudes towards domestic solar power systems, 720c9c4993db7dab8%26acdnat=1345503601_2928ea95efab771cbeccbd0c70a40194)
However, despite their positive characteristics, solar systems remain unattractive to individual householders as
AND
it will not be competitive with conventionally produced electricity (Luque. 2001).

Cumbersome requirements prevent development of customer-owned solar power.

Szaro and Ventre -2K (Florida Solar Energy Center (March 2000). Florida Photovoltaic Buildings Program: Status Report, Observations and Lessons Learned. Cocoa, FL: Florida Solar Energy Center, http://www.fsec.ucf.edu/en/publications/pdf/fsec-cr-1150-01.pdf)
Overcoming Barriers The single greatest barrier to the development of a market for customer-
AND
last ten systems for under SI/ Watt (installation labor costs only).

System inertia prevents shift to solar power.

Fuchs and Arentsen -02 (Doris A. Fuchs a, *, Maarten J. Arentsen b a Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Faculty of International Relations, Oettingenstr, Green electricity in the market place: the policy challenge, Energy Policy 30 (2002) 525–538, http://ac.els-cdn.com/S0301421501001203/1-s2.0-S0301421501001203-main.pdf?_tid=3524fd97cfe563df4b179d42552a5d56%26acdnat=1345504771_5cbb219d21f7f7f997f738542a489478)
To push renewables as alternatives for current matured generation capacity furthermore tends to neglect the
AND
a renewable base with high quality demands of the central station electricity system.

Jellyfish

Solar Panels

Jellyfish===

====Scientists use jellyfish to produce solar panels because it’s inexpensive and there is a large supply of jellyfish now====
Dillow 10 (Clay, writer and editor for POPSCI, Swedish Researchers Harness Green Goo to Create Solar Cells from Jellyfish, Sept 7 2010, http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2010-09/swedish-researchers-look-jellyfish-create-solar-cells-green-goo-http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2010-09/swedish-researchers-look-jellyfish-create-solar-cells-green-goo. Noparstak)
A group of Swedish researchers are looking beyond plants for living models upon which to
AND
from all that extra GFP in the water, more power to them.

Jellyfish protein is used to create solar panels.

Scott 10 (Cameron, freelance writer and editor and the author of the blog, The Thin Green Line, Solar Cells Made From Bioluminescent Jellyfish, August 8 2010, http://inhabitat.com/solar-cells-made-from-bioluminescent-jellyfish/-http://inhabitat.com/solar-cells-made-from-bioluminescent-jellyfish/. Noparstak)
Swedish researchers have devised a way to turn bioluminescent jellyfish into solar cells-http://inhabitat.com/solar-power/. It
AND
, but don’t require expensive materials such as titanium dioxide-http://inhabitat.com/2010/06/21/new-quantum-dot-solar-cells-could-double-efficiency/. 

2NC Impact—Europe

Jellyfish will be the only seafood option for Europe in the coming decades due to fishing quotas

Gray 8 (Louise, environment correspondent for The Telegraph, Jellyfish on the menu as edible fish stocks become extinct, Dec 15 2008, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/3776788/Jellyfish-on-the-menu-as-edible-fish-stocks-become-extinct.html-http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/3776788/Jellyfish-on-the-menu-as-edible-fish-stocks-become-extinct.html. Noparstak)
Fish stocks around Britain have been reduced to 10 per cent of what they were
AND
nations play their part in this difficult job that needs to be undertaken."

European fishing industry key to the global economy, international food distribution, and aquaculture

EU 12 (European Unioin, Maritime affairs and fisheries, May 21 2012, http://europa.eu/pol/fish/index_en.htm-http://europa.eu/pol/fish/index_en.htm. Noparstak)
The livelihoods of many EU citizens depend on the sea and its resources – fish
AND
the EU celebrates "European Maritime Day" each year on 20 May.

Preventing starvation outweighs extinction

LaFollette 3 (Hugh, majored in psychology at Belmont University, former reporter for the Metropolitan Nashville government, PhD from University of Alabama-Birmingham, Chair in Ethics at the University of South Florida St. Petersburg, "World Hunger", edited by Ray Frey and Christopher Heath Wellman, http://www.hughlafollette.com/papers/World.Hunger.htm-http://www.hughlafollette.com/papers/World.Hunger.htm. Noparstak)
The claim that we have a strong obligation to assist the starving takes two broad
AND
that Hardin’s views are wrong, I must first describe the developmental alternative.

Round 1—1NR

IMPACT

Currency Manipulator label wrecks relations – spills over and guts coop on other key issues

Lardy, 10  (Nicholas, Peterson Institute International Economics, 4/1, http://www.piie.com/publications/interviews/pp20100401lardy.pdf)**
Nicholas R. Lardy suggests the Obama administration may avoid labeling China a currency "
AND
participate or whether they would send some lower level diplomat to represent them.

2NC Asian War Outweighs

The impact is the most probable scenario for global nuclear war

Dibb 1. (Paul, Prof – Australian National University, Strategic Trends: Asia at a Crossroads, Naval War College Review, Winter, http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/2001/Winter/art2-w01.htm)
The areas of maximum danger and instability in the world today are in Asia,
AND
Regional Forum have shown themselves to be ineffective when confronted with major crises.

Chinese trade conflicts is the most likely scenario for military conflict.

Landy 7 Ben Landy, Director of Research and Strategy at the Atlantic Media Company, publisher of the Atlantic Monthly, National Journal, and Government Executive magazines, April 3, 2007, http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/~~%23comments-http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/,)
The greatest threat for the 21st century is that these economic flare-ups between
AND
–far more than increases in military budgets and anti-satellite tests.

Turns Resource Wars- U.S.-Chinese Relations key to prevent conflicts over oil

Tanner 4. (Travis, Associate Dir – China Studies, Nixon Center, Asia Times, 6-18)
The third factor to be contemplated when analyzing the likelihood of a future US-
AND
the oil industry and the increasingly robust bilateral relationship make this claim unlikely.

MANIPULATOR LABEL CAUSES CHINA SELL ITS T-BILLS.

PETRAS 5. ~James, former Prof of Sociology @ Binghamton, "Statism or Free Markets?: China Bashing and the Loss of US Competitiveness" Oct 22/23 — http://www.counterpunch.org/petras10222005.html~~
US Treasury Secretary John Snow, driven by the protectionist pressures from a Congress responding
AND
its economic exchanges with Asia, Russia and the rest of the world.

TBILLS SELL OFF COLLAPSES THE DOLLAR.

BOTT 5 ~Uwe, President and CEO of Cross-Border Finance, The Globalist, 5-6, http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=4539~~
Instead of piling up low-yielding U.S. treasury bonds, the
AND
an accelerating pace — only to put further downward pressure on the dollar. 

THAT COLLAPSES THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.

Washington Post, 11/17/04
Foreign traders and investors sell dollars on foreign exchange markets. The dollar declines in
AND
that export to them. Markets interconnect; weakness spreads. It’s grim.

AT October Suprise

They Say HC October Surprise

Thumpers don’t really matter- prefer our robust forecasting models from Silver- only the plan would structurally change the election, not tiny scandals

Silver 9/9/2012 (Nate, Genius, writer for FiveThirtyEight, now under the New York Times, The blog is devoted to rigorous analysis of politics, polling, public affairs, sports, science and culture, largely through statistical means, Sept. 9: Call It as You See It, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/10/sept-9-call-it-as-you-see-it/~~%23more-34347)
Finally, keep in mind that our forecasts normally are pretty stable. More often
AND
. (Although he gained ground among Ipsos’s broader sample of registered voters).

LINK DEBATE

====Obama’s renewable push is bashing Romney on jobs – the most important election issue====

The Hill, July 31st ~2012, Obama campaign hits Romney over wind energy tax credit, http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/241195-obama-campaign-hits-romney-on-wind-energy-credit~-~-http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/241195-obama-campaign-hits-romney-on-wind-energy-credit-~~

President Obama’s campaign is bashing Mitt Romney for the presumptive GOP nominee’s view that tax
AND
governor says federal green energy efforts should be focused on research and development.

Renewable support for Obama will target swing voters

Northwest Herald, May 24th ~2012, Obama to campaign in Iowa, promote energy plan, http://www.nwherald.com/2012/05/24/obama-to-campaign-in-iowa-promote-energy-plan/ariqolq/?page=2-http://www.nwherald.com/2012/05/24/obama-to-campaign-in-iowa-promote-energy-plan/ariqolq/?page=2~~

Obama will hold a grass-roots campaign event at the fairgrounds Thursday evening.
AND
has pushed previously, aiming to help manufacturers, strapped homeowners and veterans.

====Obama’s energy policy is being labeled as a job killer – it is being used as political ammunition ====

Bloomberg News, May 5th ~2012, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-05-04/new-keystone-bid-gives-gop-political-ammunition-http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-05-04/new-keystone-bid-gives-gop-political-ammunition, New Keystone Bid Gives GOP Political ’Ammunition’~

TransCanada Corp. (TRP) has reapplied to build the Keystone XL oil pipeline
AND
effort to push the pipeline through that could then land them in court.".

Solyndra has created a strong negative perception of investment in solar

Randazzo, ’12 INCENTIVES AT EVERY TURN By Ryan Randazzo, Posted 5/6/2012 The Arizona Republic http://www.usatoday.com/USCP/PNI/Business/2012-05-06-PNI0506biz-subsidiesPNIBrd_ST_U.htm
Public money supports the development of nearly every form of energy — a point not
AND
say nothing but the market and the lowest price should drive energy policy. 

At Link Turn

RE subsidies have lost popular support—multiple reasons

Ball, Scholar in Residence at Stanford University’s Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance, ’12

Foreign Affairs¶ May 2012 - June 2012¶ Tough Love for Renewable Energy Subtitle: Making Wind and Solar Power Affordable¶ BYLINE: Jeffrey Ball. ¶ JEFFREY BALL is Scholar in Residence at Stanford University’s Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance. Previously wrote about energy and the environment for The WSJ, where he spent 14 years as a reporter, columnist, and editor, most recently as Environment Editor.¶ SECTION: Pg. 122 Vol. 91 No. 3
Over the past decade, governments around the world threw money at renewable power.
AND
has been sloppy, failing to derive the most bang for the buck.

Energy is one of the most important issues for the election – Public notices contradictions with Obama’s policies

Russel, April 23rd ~2012, Barry Russell is president and CEO of the Independent Petroleum Association of America, Obama’s Energy Strategy of Contradiction, Lexis~

Right now, voters across the country are mobilizing around an issue that could determine
AND
question: Can Obama have his energy cake and eat it, too?

Obama Win 2NC

1NC Silver evidence says Obama has an 80% chance of winning now- based on an aggregation of the most credible polling data and says Obama is closing the enthusiasm gap by getting base turnout- he’ll keep most of his convention bounce in swing states

Prefer our evidence- it captures the convention bounce and best reflects consensus of data- their evidence is distorted to fit a narrative

Silver 9/14/2012 (Nate, Genius and undisputed king of uniqueness evidence, writer for FiveThirtyEight, now under the New York Times, The blog is devoted to rigorous analysis of politics, polling, public affairs, sports, science and culture, largely through statistical means, Sept. 13: After Convention Bounce, Holding Obama’s Polls to a Higher Standard, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/)
On Thursday at 6:30 p.m. Eastern time, there was
AND
may simply mean the conventional wisdom was a little slow to catch up.

Electoral math means Obama will win now

Washington Post 9/12/2012 (President Obama’s electoral college edge, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/09/12/president-obamas-electoral-college-edge/)
President Obama maintains an edge in the race for 270 electoral college votes, according
AND
-state electoral votes, giving him 313 — and a second term.

U Controls direction of DA becauase Obama solve your aff

Obama win is critical to clean energy transition – Romney will only support oil and gas.

Taylor 8/23/12 (Heather Taylor, director of the Natural Resources Defense Council’s Action Fund, Innovation or More of the Same?, AUGUST 23, 2012, http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/sizing-up-romney-and-obama-ene.php)
Mitt Romney released his energy plan in New Mexico on Thursday, and while it appears short on detail, it follows a familiar pattern: more fossil fuels, less clean energy development. It’s the same approach America relied on for a century. President Obama recognizes it is time for something new. Obama has presided over the largest increase in clean energy this nation has ever seen. Thanks to a combination of government policies and private sector gumption, roughly 35 percent of all new power built in the United States in the last four years came from wind. The solar industry is 10 times the size it was just a few years ago and employs more than 100,000 Americans. Obama has made history by raising fuel efficiency standards to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. By pushing cars to go farther on a tank of gas, these standards will save consumers %241.7 trillion at the pump. Automakers are already hiring workers to get these cars on the road. Labor unions and automakers estimate the new standards will generate 570,000 jobs across the economyhttp://www.bluegreenalliance.org/news/publications/gearing-up. And because the standards cut our oil imports by one-third, they represent the biggest step America has taken to confront climate change. The administration also set the first-ever limits on carbon pollution from new power plants-a move that will help America create a cleaner, 21st century power fleet and reduce the threat of global warming. These breakthroughs secure our nation’s leadership of the 21st century global energy market. And they confirm the value of forward-looking innovation. Romney prefers to look to the past. He would dish out subsidies to mature oil and gas companies-some of the richest in the world-but starve clean energy innovators. Romney said he would kill the Production Tax Credit, the most effective incentive for wind energy and one that enjoys broad bipartisan support. The Ryan budget, meanwhile, would hand over %2440 billion in taxpayer dollars to oil companies at the same time it cuts clean energy investments 90 percent, down to just %241 billion.

Obama does solar

Karpinski 8/22/12  (Gene Karpinski, President, League of Conservation Voters, The Choice Couldn’t Be More Clear, AUGUST 22, 2012, http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/sizing-up-romney-and-obama-ene.php)
President Obama believes in a different course, and is putting America in charge of
AND
America’s economy, while Mitt Romney is in the tank for Big Oil.

Ohio

Obama’s ahead in key states- Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado

Reuters 9/10/2012 (Obama expands lead, Romney still in striking distance, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/10/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE8891DI20120910)
AUTO INDUSTRY BAILOUT¶ Democrats have been heartened by Obama’s steady lead in Ohio,
AND
Colorado, where improving local economies and shifting demographics have helped his cause.

Ohio Not key

Sabato, 12  (Larry, UVA Center For Politics, 4/26, http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/plan-of-attack-obama-romney-and-the-electoral-college/-http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/plan-of-attack-obama-romney-and-the-electoral-college/)

Would winning Ohio guarantee the presidency for Romney? Not necessarily. Richard Nixon won
AND
a considerably larger share of its 2008 votes than did Florida or Ohio.

Round 4—1NC

1NC Topicality

To be topical the aff must establish a direct financial incentive for Thorium production or development – this can only occur through the use of tax incentives, direct government spending, liability shields, access to resources on federal lands, or tariffs.

Government Financial Subsidies 5-’8 (From the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, The Energy Report, "Chapter 28: Government Financial Subsidies, http://www.window.state.tx.us/specialrpt/energy/pdf/28-GovernmentFinancialSubsidies.pdf)
Previous chapters examined fuel sources and effi ciency measures that might help meet Texas’ energy
AND
the subsidy total is the amount of the tariff collected from ethanol importers. 

Violation: they don’t use any of those things—its just military procurement

And, there vague plan text means they are not a direct-incentive

Blackwell, CRS National Defense Fellow, 2K7 (Kristine E., "The Department of Defense: Reducing Its Reliance on Fossil-Based Aviation Fuel – Issues for Congress", CRS Report to Congress, June 15)
DOD resource allocation and accounting processes (the Planning, Programming, and Budgeting System
AND
way to quantify–and therefore value–the benefits of conserving fuel. 

And, they don’t meet the phrase "in the United States" their incentives don’t include some type of tariff or exclusions of foreign companies

California Energy Commission, 4 (Jan, "Ethanol Fuel Incentives Applied in the U.S.", http://www.energy.ca.gov/reports/2004-02-03_600-04-001.PDF-http://www.energy.ca.gov/reports/2004-02-03_600-04-001.PDF)
Federal legislation, enacted in 1980, imposed an ethanol import tariff. Since all
AND
shipments of foreign ethanol reprocessed in countries covered by the Caribbean Basin Initiative.

Voters-

1.  Ground - There’s no way we can generate specific links to any of our disads - Their plan doesn’t even increase incentives, much less defend spending money or using a certain purchasing strategy.

2. Policymaking and education- A bill in Congress that says to increase an energy without a mechanism would be laughed at. We aren’t saying they have to have a page long plan text, but at least enough for a summary of what legislation would be.

3. No Offense – They can still read the same advantages, they just have to specify what type of incentive they use – Means they are not even reasonably topical

CP

Text: The United States federal government should establish Cooperative Research and Development Agreements between the federal laboratories, the Department of Defense and all relevant and approved private industries and research universities to develop and rapidly deploy thorium small modular nuclear reactors.

And, tech-transfer agreements solves the case while avoiding the disadvantage and turns

Federal Laboratory Consortium for Technology Transfer, (copyright date — no publication date) 8 (Frequently Asked Questions, http://www.federallabs.org/home/faqs/)====
Although there are many definitions of technology transfer, generally speaking, technology transfer is
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must ensure that they utilize their agency’s specific wording and format for CRADAs. 

And, Vagueness shouldn’t be an affirmative advantage – Allowing them to clarify what the plan does and does not include in the 2AC justifies affirmative conditionality which devastates negative pre-round preparation, negates 8 minutes of the 1NC, and justifies replanning in the 2AC.

1NC DA

F-35 being funded now– new budget proposals can derail

Jeremiah Gertler, February 16, 2012 ~Specialist in Military Aviation, F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) Program, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RL30563.pdf~~
FY2012 defense authorization act: The report on the House-passed version of the
AND
the SAC mark funded %24695¶ million less than the Administration request.

Short-term shift in defense budget causes serious disruptions in funding for Operation and Maintenance- this hallows out the military and destroys military superiority

Koehl, 10-31-’8 (Stuart- Fellow at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, senior research fellow on US-European defense cooperation at the Center for Transatlantic Relations _{"The Unbearable Lightness of Barney; A Democratic congressman’s irresponsible and impossible plan to cut the defense budget by 25 percent", The Weekly Standard)
The first thing to know is the Defense budget is not a pot of money
AND
. So we aren’t going to be able to cut O%26M.} 

F-35s key to hegemony—cutting them would kill the aerospace industry and alliances

Donnelly, 2011 - director of the Center for Defense Studies ~7/18/11Thomas, The Weekly Standard, "An Extremely Immodest Proposal," http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/extremely-immodest-proposal_576967.html?, accessed 7/24/)
No doubt the legal and monetary obligations would be great, but the strategic,
AND
and production experience to make stealthy, manned combat aircraft will rapidly disappear.

Biggest Impact- Solves all conflict

Lowther, PhD, military defense analyst at the Air Force Research Institute, Fall 10 (Adam, "Air Diplomacy Protecting American National Interests" http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2010/fall/lowther.pdf)
Air diplomacy is likely to become more important because of the speed, flexibility,
AND
is equally desirable. Air diplomacy is a primary contributor to that mission.

BIG 1NC

SQ will decrease emissions by 80% by 2050- maintaining the transition key to solve warming and avoid peak oil impacts

Lovins 2012 (Amory, physicist, environmental scientist, writer, and Chairman/Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, Oxford MA, A Farewell to Fossil Fuels: Answering the Energy Challenge, Foreign Affairs, March/April, proquest)
Weaning the United States from those fossil fuels would require two big shifts: in
AND
last, Americans could make energy do their work without working their undoing.

Nuke power trades off with renewables, jacks short-term transition key to solve warming and peak fossil fuel

Conolley 2011 (Heather, PhD Candidate in Political Science at UC- Santa Barbara, The Renaissance of Nuclear Energy in the Shadow of Climate Change, PhD Dissertation, proquest)
Given the long lead time associated with development and reactor ¶ construction, nuclear opponents
AND
). Thus opportunity costs for constructing nuclear reactors must be ¶ carefully considered.

Transition away from oil NOW key

Yetiv and Fowler 2011 (Dr. Steve Yetiv is University Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Old Dominion University, Eric Fowler is a Military Intelligence Officer in the US Army and PhD student at Old Dominion in International Studies, The Challenges of Decreasing Oil Consumption, Political Science Quarterly126. 2, proquest)
No one can predict an oil peak definitely or guess its specific effects. However
AND
oil, the less serious would be the potential effects of peak oil.

Peak oil destroys the global economy

Seljom and Rosenberg 2011 (Pernille and Eva, Institute for Energy Technology (Norway), A study of oil and natural gas resources and production, International Journal of Energy Sector Management5. 1(2011): 101-124. Proquest)
The long-term development of energy systems is characterised by a high degree of
AND
of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production.

Econ collapse causes extinction

Auslin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, "The Global Economy Unravels", Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)
What do these trends mean in the short and medium term? The Great Depression
AND
may be a series of small explosions that coalesce into a big bang. 

Warming guarantees multiple positive feedbacks triggering extinction, adaptation cannot solve

Tickell ’8 (Oliver, Climate Researcher, "On a Planet 4C Hotter, All We Can Prepare for is Extinction," The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange-http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)
We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming-http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/aug/06/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange, Bob Watson told
AND
warming caused by human emissions could propel us towards a similar hothouse Earth. 

1NC Solvency

The plan makes no sense- the DoD can’t do domestic deployment- ONLY military

Hunt, 1ac author, 11 (Gary L, 30 years experience in the energy, software and information technology industries,  Tech%26Creative Labs, "Is there a Small Modular Nuke in our Distributed Energy Future?," May 31, ~~www.tclabz.com/2011/05/31/is-there-a-small-modular-nuke-in-our-distributed-energy-future/)
What the US military needs according to Colonel Roege is clean, modular, transportable
AND
applications should speed the path to small modular nuclear units in civilian applications.

Thorium reactors don’t solve – not commercially viable, produces more waste, and technically inefficient

Rees, 11 (Eifion, staff @ The Ecologist, "Don’t believe the spin on thorium being a greener nuclear option", 6/23/11, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/23/thorium-nuclear-uranium-http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/23/thorium-nuclear-uranium)
In his reading, thorium is merely a way of deflecting attention and criticism from
AND
players is interested. Thorium reactors are no more than a distraction.’

Thorium is a SERIOUS hazard and more costly than uranium

Makhijani %26 Boyd, 9 (Arjun, President of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, holds a Ph.D. in engineering (specialization: nuclear fusion) from the University of California at Berkeley, and Michele, former director of the Safe Energy Program at Physicians for Social Responsibility, Staff Scientist at the Institute for IEER, "Thorium Fuel: No Panacea for Nuclear Power", July 2009, http://ieer.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/thorium2009factsheet.pdf-http://ieer.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/thorium2009factsheet.pdf) WP

Ongoing Technical Problems ¶ Research and development of thorium fuel has been undertaken in Germany
AND
protection more difficult and expensive for a given level ¶ of annual dose.

1NC Prolif

Thorium makes the waste problem worse – decays far slower and more dangerous

Makhijani %26 Boyd, 9 (Arjun, President of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, holds a Ph.D. in engineering (specialization: nuclear fusion) from the University of California at Berkeley, and Michele, former director of the Safe Energy Program at Physicians for Social Responsibility, Staff Scientist at the Institute for IEER, "Thorium Fuel: No Panacea for Nuclear Power", July 2009, http://ieer.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/thorium2009factsheet.pdf-http://ieer.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/thorium2009factsheet.pdf) WP

Not a Waste Solution¶ Proponents claim that thorium fuel significantly reduces the volume,
AND
hazardous non-radioactive ¶ metals in both thorium and uranium mill tailings.

Thorium doesn’t solve risk of prolif – produces even more bomb-making material

Makhijani %26 Boyd, 9 (Arjun, President of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, holds a Ph.D. in engineering (specialization: nuclear fusion) from the University of California at Berkeley, and Michele, former director of the Safe Energy Program at Physicians for Social Responsibility, Staff Scientist at the Institute for IEER, "Thorium Fuel: No Panacea for Nuclear Power", July 2009, http://ieer.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/thorium2009factsheet.pdf-http://ieer.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/thorium2009factsheet.pdf) WP

Not a Proliferation Solution¶ Thorium is not actually a "fuel" because it
AND
the same temptation to reprocess as today’s once-through uranium fuel cycles.

Nuclear Power will not spread globally- zero risk of the advantage

Kessides 2012 (Ioannis N. Kessides, The World Bank, Development Research Group, The future of the nuclear industry reconsidered: Risks, uncertainties, and continued promise, Energy Policy, Volume 48, September 2012, Pages 185–208, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.05.008)
Throughout its history, nuclear power has been controversial and susceptible to instinctive rejection.
AND
reactors would simply be unsuitable for most developing countries with small electric grids.

1. They don’t solve Allyson, isolates Russian HEU as open to theft which means they don’t solve

2. No risk of another major terrorist attack—There have been no domestic attacks since 9/11 and terrorists have learned that such efforts are counterproductive

Mueller 6 (John, Foreign Affairs, September October 2006, p.2)
A fully credible explanation for the fact that the United States has suffered no terrorist
AND
taxing all to defend the United States against an enemy that scarcely exists.

3. Risk of terrorist attack exaggerated

Carle 8 (Glenn L., member of the CIA’s Clandestine Service for 23 years  "Overstating our fears about Osama bin Laden and others of his ilk," The Salt Lake Tribune, http://www.sltrib.com/opinion/ci_9901142)
Sen. John McCain has repeatedly characterized the threat of "radical Islamic extremism"
AND
for the small, lethal, disjointed and miserable opponents that they are.

4. it’s too hard to pull off, no terrorists and small attacks don’t access their impacts

Schneier 10 – Crytographer, Computer Security Specialist, Writer, M.A. from American University (Bruce, "Schneier on Security", Bruce Scheneier Blog, May 5th 2010, May 7th 2010, http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2010/05/why_arent_there.html,)
Why Aren’t There More Terrorist Attacks?  As the details of the Times Square car
AND
the people, and you’re probably going to slip up and get caught.

5. There are institutional and professional reasons to inflate the risk of terrorism

Mueller 4 (John, Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies at the Mershon Center at Ohio State University, Regulation, Fall)
In addition, it should be pointed out that the response to September 11 has
AND
Call this the Y2K effect.) Disproved Pollyannas have no such convenient refuge.

6. There is no nuclear black market

Frost 5 (Robin, teaches political science at Simon Fraser University, British Colombia, "Nuclear Terrorism after 9/11," Adelphi Papers, December)
The nuclear black market. There is no evidence in the open-source literature
AND
engineer, sold uranium hexafluoride, the feedstock for enrichment, to Libya.

7. Extensive checks prove no loose nukes

Frost 5 (Robin, teaches political science at Simon Fraser University, British Colombia, "Nuclear Terrorism after 9/11," Adelphi Papers, December)
In fact, all the evidence is that the weapons were indeed safely withdrawn.  
AND
, nor Iraq nor Iran could make use of these explosive devices.’

1NC Basing

No nuclear plants means nothing for terrorism to steal- global section

No impact to Cyber terror—

1. Cyberterrorism is exaggerated—Multiple Reasons

Weimann 4 (Gabriel, senior fellow at the United States Institute of Peace and professor of communication at the University of Haifa, Israel; 2004¶ ("Cyberterrorism: How Real Is the Threat?" December 2004 | Special Report No. 119) http://www.usip.org/pubs/specialreports/sr116.html, issued in March 2004, which examined the variety of uses to which terrorists routinely put the Internet.)
It seems fair to say that the current threat posed by cyberterrorism has been exaggerated
AND
cyberterrorism," which has confused the public and given rise to countless myths. 

2. The CIA solves

Marks former CIA official 5 (Andrew Napolitano interviewing Ron, Fox News Reporter, former CiA official, The Big story with John Gibson, "Interview With Former CIA official Ron Marks", May 26)
NAPOLITANO: All right. How do these games work and what does the CIA
AND
they’re doing things and then proceeding to disrupt and attack them as well. 

No Miscalc- Safeguards counter the possibility of mistakes—no impact

Slocombe 9

~Walter B "De-Alerting: Diagnoses, Prescriptions, and Side-Effects" (http://www.ewi.info/system/files/Slocombe.pdf)  6/09, T.a~
¶ Whatever other problems the current nuclear posture of the US nuclear force may present
AND
that whatever mistakes occur, the result will not be a nuclear explosion.

Many safeguards exist to protect against accidental or unauthorized launch of nuclear weapons

Arms Control Association 7

~"Text of Nov. 28 E-mail from Strategic Command responding to ACT’s questions on the alert status of U.S. nuclear weapons" (http://www.armscontrol.org/interviews/20071204_STRATCOM) 11/28, T.a~
There are multiple, rigorous technical and procedural safeguards to protect against accidental or unauthorized launch. These safeguards include positive measures such as weapon design features, safety rules, procedures (including two-man rule), accident prevention or mitigation measures, and other controls. Such controls include physical security and coded control systems, which are used collectively or individually to enhance safety and to reduce the likelihood, severity, or consequences of an accident, unauthorized actions, or deliberate destructive actions. 

Their risk calculus is flawed – low probability events like accidental nuclear war are NOT inevitable in the long-run because risk doesn’t compound annually

Campbell and Currie, University of Nottingham, ’6
~Scott and Greg, "Against Beck: In Defence of Risk Analysis," Philosophy of the Social Sciences, June, sage pub~

It might be responded that all this is missing the point, which is as
AND
Beck is not someone who has carried out any such empirical research.)24

Even if They Win a Risk of Accidents History Proves They Don’t Escalate

Waltz, ’95

~Kenneth The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate, 1995, p. 93-94~

"Love is like war," the chaplain says in Bertolt Brecht’s Mother Courage,
AND
optimism, bearing in mind that nothing in this world is ever certain.

1NC Meltdowns

1. If we win cyberterror defense it answers the internal to this scenario

2. No Risk of Meltdown – Safeguards Post 9/11 Account for Prolonged Blackout Periods

Associated Press 2011  By Dina Cappiello   03/29/11 "Long Blackouts Pose Risk To U.S. Nuclear Reactors" http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/29/blackout-risk-us-nuclear-reactors_n_841869.html
Despite the added safety measures, a 1997 report found that blackouts – the loss
AND
to-date information about the plant, resulted in the rosier outlook.

Evaluate Probability First – Risk Calculus That Favors Magnitude is Based on Outdated Safety Models

Associated Press 2011  By Dina Cappiello   03/29/11 "Long Blackouts Pose Risk To U.S. Nuclear Reactors" http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/29/blackout-risk-us-nuclear-reactors_n_841869.html
"When you simplify, you always err towards the worst possible circumstance," Scott Burnell, a spokesman for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, said of the earlier studies. The latest work shows that "even in situations where everything is broken and you can’t do anything else, these events take a long time to play out," he said. "Even when you get to releasing into environment, much less of it is released than actually thought."

No Risk of Meltdown – Safeguards Check in Every Instance

Associated Press 2011  By Dina Cappiello   04/28/11 "U.S. Nuclear Power Blackout Plans Doubted By NRC Chief" http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/29/us-nuclear-power-blackout_n_855424.html
As part of a review initiated after the Japan incident, the commission is looking
AND
as in the case of the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant in Japan.

Three Mile Island proves Impacts are minimal
David R. Francis   Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor, 2004 (DS) "After nuclear’s meltdown, a cautious revival" http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0329/p12s02-usec.html
It was the near-disaster that scared a nation. A quarter century ago
AND
attitudes. Here and there, the nuclear industry is beginning to stir.

New Regulations Prevent potential disasters before the start
David R. Francis   Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor, 2004 (DS) "After nuclear’s meltdown, a cautious revival" http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0329/p12s02-usec.html
Could a Three Mile Island happen again? The NRC blames that accident on "
AND
. Lockbaum, a longtime campaigner for reducing the risks of nuclear power.

Round 4—2NC

CP Solves

Technology transfers through the CRD Agreement create a massive incentive for development – tax credits and federal Research and Development fail.

Only the Counterplan signals strong government support while allowing the military to leapfrog current barriers to technological development – without costing money

Inside Energy with Federal Lands, 7-11- 5 (Matt Spangler, "Advocates of ocean energy anticipate new wave of interest in technology", RENEWABLE ENERGY; Pg. 10)
The department has not asked for any funds to be appropriated for ocean energy research
AND
cost and who’s ~going to~ fund the development of the project." 

And, we create a quick transition to a decentralized grid, There lack of cooperation with the civilian sector and testing will cause an accidental power outage– triggering cascading blackouts and turning the case.

Anderson, ’4 (Professor at Columbia University, "Distributed Storage-Generation "Smart" Electric Grid of the Future" The Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the National Commission on Energy Policy)
I believe we must create several national test beds to experiment with how to deploy
AND
grid, is needed within the U.S. Department of Energy.

And, empirically CRADA has increased renewable energy development – decreases the cost of research and development and increases the ability of the government and private-sector to rapidly deploy the new tek

Inside Energy with Federal Lands, 6 (Angela Y. Hardin, "Rising oil prices drive up interest in alternative technologies at labs", RENEWABLE ENERGY; Pg. 15)
Whether that proves to be a long-term trend remains to be seen.
AND
to develop new technologies to meet identified AES needs," company officials said. 

D/A

D/A O/w and turns

Connoly and lowther—airpower only intenral link to heg

F-35s are key to US naval power projection – they are key to respond to Chinese naval modernization

Cheng 11 (Research Fellow at the Asian Studies Center, Dean, States News Service, "Sea Power and the Chinese State: China’s Maritime Ambitions," http://www.militaryaerospace.com/index/display/avi-wire-news-display/1454399439.html)
In this regard, even as it recognizes China’s maritime interests, the United States
AND
already robust interactions in these areas with allied and selected other Asian militaries.

F-35s are necessary to deter China – their aerospace industry will soon be able to match our current planes

Majumdar, 11 - writer for Defense News ~6/30Dave, Defense News, "Air Force to start operational testing of F-35, http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/2011/07/defense-air-force-to-start-opeval-test-f35-071511/~~
"We estimate that based on current knowledge and assuming no major setbacks or loss
AND
The J-20 is a new stealth fighter under development in China.

F-35s are key to US naval power projection – they are key to respond to Chinese naval modernization

Cheng 2011 Research Fellow at the Asian Studies Center ~7/11/11, Dean, States News Service, "Sea Power and the Chinese State: China’s Maritime Ambitions," http://www.militaryaerospace.com/index/display/avi-wire-news-display/1454399439.html, accessed )
In this regard, even as it recognizes China’s maritime interests, the United States
AND
its already robust interactions in these areas with allied and selected other Asian militaries

Shelving the F35 would result in Israel losing access to the fighters-NOW key to control Middle East arms race

Xhinua 5-26-11 ("Israel Air Force chief underscores "vital importance" of F-35 to Israel" http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-05/26/c_13895947.htm-http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-05/26/c_13895947.htm)
Israel needs the F-35 fighter jets more than ever before in light of
AND
, conventional capabilities against militaries, as well as defending the home front." 

Even a low level nuclear conflict in the Middle East risks extinction

Hoffman, ’6 (Ian, "’Nuclear winter’ looms" Inside Bay Area, lexis)
Researchers at the American Geophysical Union’s annual meeting warned Monday that even a small regional
AND
would starve exceeded those who would die in the initial blasts and radiaion.

F-35 on the chopping block now – recent requirements and empirics

Gatestone Institute, 8-7- ’12 ( Should the US Remilitarize Military Procurement?, http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3251/military-procurement~~
The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, for instance, which is now in
AND
, the USAF got 21 B-2s and 187 F-22s.

F-35 survives cuts now

Luis Martinez, 1- ’12 (ABC News, "New Pentagon Strategy Calls For Leaner, But Still Dominant, Military")
Another way the U.S. is expected to project its power in the coming decade will be through the purchase of more than 2,000  F-35 Joint Strike Fighters.  The program has been beset by cost overruns resulting from production difficulties.   A lot of speculation has swirled around the F-35 being a likely target for any potential budget savings.

Our link evidence assumes their turns– even if increasing procurement for alternative energy can save money in the long term it will still trigger short-term internal shifts within the budget.

Defense Science Board, 8 (Report: "More Fight – Less Fuel", Defense Science Board Task Force on DoD Energy Strategy, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense, For Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, February)
A second reason cited is the "split incentives" argument. This is a
AND
increase the acquisition budget at the expense of the operating and support budget. 

And, sustained funding is key – short term changes in procurement allocation snow ball – upsetting the entire budget strategy

Walker, 10-17-7 (David- Comptroller General of the U.S. Government Accountability Office, Testimony Before the Committee on Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Subcommittee on Federal Financial Management, Government Information, Federal Services, and International Security)
The current fiscal environment also presents challenges for DOD’s plans to transform military operations.
AND
best practices, sound business arrangements, and clear lines of responsibility and accountability

And, this devastates modernization and readiness

New York Times, 5 (April 13th, "Research Worth Fighting For")
Mr. Rumsfeld has long championed the need to transform the military and exploit new
AND
understood the importance of the tech base effort, and acted on that understanding

2NC DOD Will Cut spending

Defense isn’t a sacred cow – both sides of the aisle are looking to cut it

Thompson 6- ’11 (Mark, nat’l security writer @ TIME, http://battleland.blogs.time.com/2011/06/27/defense-on-the-chopping-block/)
That’s the word from Capitol Hill as detailed in this morning’s lead story in the
AND
12 years won’t be as tough as some predict — and others fear.

At: DOD Won’t Cut Funding

The DOD will terminate key programs

DOD 11 (OFFICE OF THE UNDER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE (COMPTROLLER) / CFO STATES DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE FISCAL YEAR 2012 BUDGET REQUEST)
http://comptroller.defense.gov/defbudget/fy2012/FY2012_Budget_Request_Overview_Book.pdf-http://comptroller.defense.gov/defbudget/fy2012/FY2012_Budget_Request_Overview_Book.pdf
This year, the Department’s major efficiencies included termination of several programs including procurement of
AND
the Joint Strike Fighter program and increase F/A-18 production.

And, the trade-off still occurs

Duval, Associate Professor of Political Science at West Virginia University, 3 (Robert, "Trading Bases: Resolving the Guns vs. Butter Tradeoff Puzzle via Full Specification", American Political Science)
In the case of the budget deficit, the important question isn’t whether defense has
AND
have to borrow a dollar more, unless we increase revenues a dollar.  

Round 4—1NR

1NR

Terrorism

Lower casualties and no scenario for getting weapons or attacking—Empirics are on our side

Healy 10 – Vice President at CATO and Author (Gene, "Terrorism Isn’t an ’Existential Threat’", CATO Institute, April 6th 2010, April 9th 2010, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11660,)
As the analysts at the Human Security Report Project explain, "the overwhelming majority
AND
points out, of any appreciable amount of weapons-grade uranium disappearing.

b. The threat of terrorism has been greatly exaggerated – prefer our empirical evidence to their authors’ rhetoric

Mueller 5 (John, Professor of Political Science at OhioState. May 2005. International Studies Perspectives, Volume 6 Issue 2 Page 208-234, Simplicity and Spook: Terrorism and the Dynamics of Threat Exaggeration)
The capacity for small bands of terrorists to do harm is far less than was
AND
repetition—any more than Timothy McVeigh’s Oklahoma City bombing of 1995 has.

c. Most recent evidence concludes no terror threat

Bangkok Post 12 (US: No Terrorism Here, http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/world/305366/us-no-terrorism-here)
WASHINGTON : The United States said on Tuesday that it has found "no direct
AND
with ambushes, drive-by killings and car bombs throughout the region.

Terrorism may be a threat, but it pales in comparison to Nuclear war, climate change, disease, and a myriad of other impacts in all aspects

Feffer 7 (Co-director of Foreign Policy in Focus at the Institute for Policy Studies,  John, "The core misconceptions in the ’war on terror’," http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IG13Ak04.html)
The September 11 attacks were horrifying. So were the 1998 bombings of US embassies
AND
threat" is to give more power to the terrorists than they deserve. 

No risk of nuclear terrorism- Terrorists cant aquire or develop the weapons
Garfinkle, PhD International Relations at UPenn, former professor of foreign policy and Middle East politics at UPenn and Johns Hopkins, and editor of The American Interest, 5-’9 (Adam, "Does Nuclear Deterrence Apply in the Age of Terrorism?" Foreign Policy Research Institute)
There have, of course, been several novels, dozens of action movies,
AND
even less likely than being able to launch Osama bin Laden into orbit. 

Independently Serves as a deterent to development- organizations seek conventional methods
Bunn, Associate Proffesor at Harvard, Writer of more than 20 book and reports regarding nuclear terrorism, PhD MIT, 4-’8 ( Matthew, "Nuclear Terrorism" , TESTIMONY OF MATTHEW BUNN FOR THE COMMITTEE ON HOMELAND SECURITY AND GOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS UNITED STATES SENATE)
Second, making and delivering even a crude nuclear bomb would be the most technically
AND
for large and well-financed terrorist groups with ample technical resources.18

And, Terrorist organizations are weakening- their claims are exaggerated
Garfinkle, PhD International Relations at UPenn, former professor of foreign policy and Middle East politics at UPenn and Johns Hopkins, and editor of The American Interest, 5-’9 (Adam, "Does Nuclear Deterrence Apply in the Age of Terrorism?" Foreign Policy Research Institute)
So if al Qaeda is capable of strategic reasoning, says it wants nukes,
AND
attention and resources away from other problems where they could do more good. 

No nuclear terror
Mueller, Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies and Prof of Political Science @ Ohio State University, 10  ~John,"The Atomic Terrorist?", http://www.cato.org/pubs/npu/npu_january2010.pdf~~
In the wake of 9/11, concerns about potential atomic terrorists surged,
AND
local and international security police are likely to be on the intense prowl.

Meltdowns

No meltdown impact – Wasserman is indicative of global meltdowns during war – their ev only references a radioactive leak from one US power plant – radiation is not bad for you at low levels

Schulz ’7 (Matthais, Der Spiegel, "Nuclear Exaggeration", 11-22, http://wissen.spiegel.de/wissen/dokument/dokument.html?titel=Is+Atomic+Radiation+as+Dangerous+as+We+Thought%3F%26id=54059068%26top=SPIEGEL%26suchbegriff=Hiroshima%26quellen=-http://wissen.spiegel.de/wissen/dokument/dokument.html?titel=Is+Atomic+Radiation+as+Dangerous+as+We+Thought%3F%26id=54059068%26top=SPIEGEL%26suchbegriff=Hiroshima%26quellen=)

The more recent meltdown at the reactor in Chernobyl in 1986 reminded the world of the dangers of the atom. The incident was referred to as "nuclear genocide," and the press wrote of "forests stained red" and of deformed insects. The public was bombarded with images of Soviet cleanup crews wearing protective suits, bald-headed children with cancer and the members of cement crews who lost their lives in an attempt to seal off the cracked reactor with a concrete plug. Fifteen years after the reactor accident, the German newsmagazine Focus concluded that Chernobyl was responsible for "500,000" deaths. Was all this just doomsday folklore? There is no doubt that large sections of the countryside were contaminated by the accident in the Ukraine. In the ensuing decades, up to 4,000 cleanup workers and residents of the more highly contaminated areas died of the long-term consequences of radiation exposure. But the six-figure death counts that opponents of nuclear power once cited are simply nonsense. In most cases, they were derived from vague "extrapolations" based on the hearsay reported by Russian dissidents. But such horror stories have remained part of the nuclear narrative to this day. In fact, contemporaries who reported on the Chernobyl incident should have known better. Even in the 1980s, radiobiologists and radiation physicists considered the media’s doomsday reports to be exaggerated. And their suspicions have become a virtual certainty today. Groups of researchers have set up shop at all of the sites of nuclear accidents or major nuclear contamination. They work at Hanford (where the United States began producing plutonium in 1944), they conduct studies in the English town of Sellafield (where a contaminated cloud escaped from the chimney in 1957), and they study the fates of former East German uranium mineworkers in the states of Saxony and Thuringia. New mortality rates have now been compiled for all of these groups of individuals at risk. Surprisingly, the highest mortality rates were found among the East German mineworkers. In Hiroshima, on the other hand, radioactivity claimed surprisingly few human lives. Experts now know exactly what happened in the first hours, days and weeks after the devastating atomic explosion. Almost all of Hiroshima’s 140,000 victims died quickly. Either they were crushed immediately by the shock wave, or they died within the next few days of acute burns. But the notorious radiation sickness — a gradual ailment that leads to certain death for anyone exposed to radiation levels of 6 Gray or higher — was rare. The reason is that Little Boy simply did not produce enough radioactivity. But what about the long-term consequences? Didn’t the radiation work like a time bomb in the body? To answer these questions, the Japanese and the Americans launched a giant epidemiological study after the war. The study included all residents of Hiroshima and Nagasaki who had survived the atomic explosion within a 10-kilometer (6.2-mile) radius. Investigators questioned the residents to obtain their precise locations when the bomb exploded, and used this information to calculate a personal radiation dose for each resident. Data was collected for 86,572 people. Today, 60 years later, the study’s results are clear. More than 700 people eventually died as a result of radiation received from the atomic attack: 87 died of leukemia; 440 died of tumors; and 250 died of radiation-induced heart attacks. In addition, 30 fetuses developed mental disabilities after they were born. Such statistics have attracted little notice so far. The numbers cited in schoolbooks are much higher. According to Wikipedia, the online encyclopedia, 105,000 people died of the "long-term consequences of radiation." "For commendable reasons, many critics have greatly exaggerated the health risks of radioactivity," says Albrecht Kellerer, a Munich radiation biologist. "But contrary to widespread opinion, the number of victims is by no means in the tens of thousands." Especially surprising, though, is that the stories of birth defects in newborns are also pure fantasy. The press has repeatedly embellished photos of a destroyed Hiroshima with those of deformed children, children without eyes or with three arms. In reality, there hasn’t been a single study that provides evidence of an elevated rate of birth defects. A final attempt to establish a connection is currently underway in Japan. The study includes 3,600 people who were unborn fetuses in their mothers’ wombs on that horrific day in August 1945. But it too has failed to furnish any evidence of elevated chromosomal abnormality. In Germany, where nuclear fears have coalesced with the fear of dying forests and mad cow disease into a general psychosis of threat, the degree of concern over nuclear radiation remains high. To this day, some are so fearful about the long-term effects of fallout from Chernobyl that they refuse to eat mushrooms from Bavaria. Even 20 years ago such behavior would not have made sense.

Basing

No Risk of Cyber Terror – Lack Capacity and Doesn’t Meet the Publicity Goals of Terrorism

Maura Conway Lecturer in International Security in the School of Law and Government at Dublin City University in Dublin, Ireland 2011 Against Cyberterrorism: Why cyber-based terrorist attacks are unlikely to occur Against Cyberterrorism: Why cyber-based terrorist attacks are unlikely to occur. Communications of the ACM (CACM), 54 (2). pp. 26-28. ISSN 0001-0782
In my opinion, the three most compelling arguments against cyberterrorism are: • The
AND
or obtain via other media sources, is not in our near future.

No Impact to Cyber Terror

Michael Freeman et al 2005 , Scott Dynes, Adam Golodner Version of 26 April 2005 The Known Unknowns of Cyber Security and Cyber Terrorism http://www.ists.dartmouth.edu/library/119.pdf
On the other hand, many other experts claim that the threat of cyber terrorism
AND
outages and disruptions all the time and with no effect on national security.

Round 6—1NC

1NC Framework

A. The aff must defend a topical plan and its implementation by the United States federal government.

The colon means the USFG is the agent of the res

Webster’s Guide to Grammar and Writing, 2K (http://ccc.commnet.edu/grammar/marks/colon.htm-http://ccc.commnet.edu/grammar/marks/colon.htm)
Use of a colon before a list or an explanation that is preceded by a clause that can stand by itself. Think of the colon as a gate, inviting one to go on… If the introductory phrase preceding the colon is very brief and the clause following the colon represents the real business of the sentence, begin the clause after the colon with a capital letter.

That excludes individual action

Black’s Law Dictionary, ’99 (Seventh Edition Ed. Bryan A. Garner (chief))
Federal government 1. A national government that exercises some degree of control over smaller political units that have surrendered some degree of power in exchange for the right to participate in national political matters.

C. Energy POLICY matters and we need policy action to address the pressing energy needs of the US and the world- Must evaluate consequences

Wirth, Gray %26 Podesta, very qualified, ’3 The Future  of Energy
AND
Clinton. Volume 82 • Number 4 Foreign Affairs 2003 Council on Foreign Relations
The big questions A century ago, Lord Selborne, the first lord of the
AND
challenges and the interests that can be mobilized for the necessary political change. 

====Abstract intellectualism is useless—environmental philosophers should orient themselves towards real-life problems.====
Avner De-Shalit, 2k. Professor of Political Theory at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and Associate Fellow at the Oxford Centre for Environment, Ethics, and Society, Mansfield College, Oxford University. "The Environment: Between Theory and Practice," p. 20, Questia.
So animal rights philosophers have been missing the chance to find a way to many
AND
philosophers who suggest this idea, and scorn all such claims as nonsense.

Policymakers will inevitably make predictions—the only question is whether they’re based off of explicit or implicit threats. Failure to make predictions based off of explicit risk calculation guarantees poor decisionmaking.

Fitzsimmons, 07  (Michael, defense analyst in Washington DC. "The Problem of Uncertainty in Strategic Planning", Survival, Winter 06/07)
In defence of prediction  Uncertainty is not a new phenomenon for strategists. Clausewitz knew
AND
reinvigorate their efforts in the messy but indispensable business of predicting the future. 

Scenario planning is vital to create appropriate risk assessments
Kurasawa, 04 (Professor of Sociology, York University of Toronto, Fuyuki, Constellations Volume 11, No 4, 2004)
A radically postmodern line of thinking, for instance, would lead us to believe
AND
early warning is making its way into preventive action on the global stage.  

Nuclear war comes first

Kateb, Professor of Politics at Princeton University, ’92 (George, "The Inner Ocean" p 111-112)
Schell’s work attempts to force on us an acknowledgment that sounds far-fetched and
AND
hence as morally allowed, perhaps enjoined, to take the appropriate preserving step

1NC T

Interpretation-

Restrictions are direct and legal

Law.com ("Restrict," http://dictionary.law.com/Default.aspx?selected=1835%26bold=restrict-http://dictionary.law.com/Default.aspx?selected=1835%26bold=restrict**)**
The noun ―restriction means direct, on-face limitation. restriction
n. any limitation on activity, by statute, regulation or contract provision. In multi-unit real estate developments, condominium and cooperative housing projects managed by homeowners’ associations or similar organizations, such organizations are usually required by state law to impose restrictions on use. Thus, the restrictions are part of the "covenants, conditions and restrictions" intended to enhance the use of common facilities and property which are recorded and incorporated into the title of each owner.3

"On" means directly targeted

World English Dictionary 2009 (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/on?s=t)
— prep

1. in contact or connection with the surface of; at the upper surface of: an apple on the ground ; a mark on the table cloth
   2. attached to: a puppet on a string
   3. carried with: I’ve no money on me
   4. in the immediate vicinity of; close to or along the side of: a house on the sea ; this verges on the ridiculous%21
   5. within the time limits of a day or date: he arrived on Thursday
   6. being performed upon or relayed through the medium of: what’s on the television?

"Energy production" means electricity made from the energy

US Code 2012 (Title 42 › Chapter 149 › Subchapter XIII › § 16491, http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/16491)
42 USC § 16491 - Energy production incentives
(a) In general
A State may provide to any entity—
(1) a credit against any tax or fee owed to the State under a State law, or
(2) any other tax incentive,
determined by the State to be appropriate, in the amount calculated under and in accordance with a formula determined by the State, for production described in subsection (b) in the State by the entity that receives such credit or such incentive.
(b) Eligible entities
Subsection (a) shall apply with respect to the production in the State of electricity from coal mined in the State and used in a facility, if such production meets all applicable Federal and State laws and if such facility uses scrubbers or other forms of clean coal technology.
(c) Effect on interstate commerce
Any action taken by a State in accordance with this section with respect to a tax or fee payable, or incentive applicable, for any period beginning after August 8, 2005, shall—
(1) be considered to be a reasonable regulation of commerce; and
(2) not be considered to impose an undue burden on interstate commerce or to otherwise impair, restrain, or discriminate, against interstate commerce.

Violation- the aff must remove a direct limitation on electricity production. The plan resolves a legal dispute about the content of a report written by the NRC- it does NOT in ANY WAY affect regulations on power plant operation- EVEN IF you think this somehow meets restriction, they’re extra-topical because they affect storage facilities and not power plants

Briggs 2012 (Alexander T., Managing the Line Between Nuclear Power and Nuclear Terror: Considering the Threat of Terrorism as an Environmental Impact,  J.D. Candidate 2012, Seton Hall University School of Law; B.A. 2005, Pittsburg State University, 8 Seton Hall Cir. Rev. 223, lexis)
In 1974, Congress established the NRC to promote the civilian use of nuclear power
AND
an EIS for a nuclear power plant or nuclear fuel storage facility. n22

Reasons to vote

Limits- they allow affs to deal with any conceivable inconvenience at any point in the process of getting to energy production- could range from coal miner union wages to availability of nuclear sector construction workers- limiting to a set of direct legal restrictions on production is most predictable and least arbitrary

Ground- in order to get any links against restrictions affs they have to remove a law directly regulating production- that’s the only way to get links to things like "X energy bad" or "natural gas tradeoff"- more conceptual "restrictions" remove all basis for link ground

Extra T- they affect nuclear fuel storage facilities- independent voting issue, allows access to solvency advocates and advantage ground that have nothing to do with producing energy and only about siting- justifies the "drill in ANWR and put it in the SPR" aff which would spike literally every generic with its second extra-T plank- just rejecting extra-t parts doesn’t solve since our strategy was already skewed and forces us to win T just to get back to square one

1NC CP

The United States Congress should pass legislation removing any requirement that acts of terrorism against nuclear power plants be evaluated in Environmental Impact Statements.

The CP alone is key to solve the aff

Leege 2012 (David, J.D. candidate, May 2012, Catholic University of America, Columbus School of Law; M.S. Engineering Science, Naval Postgraduate School, 2006; B.S. Materials Engineering, Iowa State University, 2003, PREVENTING ATOMS FOR PEACE FROM BECOMING ATOMS OF TERROR: THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT IS NOT A VEHICLE FOR ADDRESSING TERRORISM, 61 Cath. U.L. Rev. 527)
There are three ways to resolve the circuit split regarding the inclusion of terrorism in
AND
, each of which has a different approach to protecting against terrorism. n265

Aff Cant solve the NB- Perm means no link to the NB

Garrett and Stutz  05 ~Robert T., and Terrence, Dallas Morning News Staff  "Justices to decide if overhaul needed after bills fail in Legislature," August 19, 2005, http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/texassouthwest/legislature/schoolfinance/stories/082005dntexsession.8bd31b4a.html~~
That could foreshadow the court’s response to a chief argument by state attorneys – that
AND
must be done, which allows politicians to say their hands are tied." 

1NC Elections

====Romney wins now – Studies prove====
Adelmann 9-11-12 (Bob, "CU Professors Predict Romney Win; Intrade Foresees Obama Win," http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/item/12803-cu-professors-predict-romney-win-intrade-foresees-obama-win-http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/item/12803-cu-professors-predict-romney-win-intrade-foresees-obama-win**, Mike)
A study by two University of Colorado professors released last month predicts that President Obama
AND
~here~ drops from 78% to the low 60s this year."

Nuclear Power is popular with the base

US News, 2009 ~Nov 30^th, Democrats Change Tune on Nuclear Energy, http://www.usnews.com/news/energy/articles/2009/11/30/democrats-change-tune-on-nuclear-energy~~

During the 2008 presidential campaign, it was Sen. John McCain, not then
AND
over money for nuclear to win the votes for their climate bill. .

Mobilizing the base key to the election
Reeve 6/12 (Elspeth, "Base Diving: Obama and Romney Both Have Enthusiasm Gaps", Atlantic Wire, Jun 12, 2012, http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/06/base-diving-obama-and-romney-both-have-enthusiasm-gaps/53437/~~%23)//KR
Independents don’t like Mitt Romney personally, and they don’t think Obama has great ideas
AND
the base, both candidates are struggling right now, for several reasons.

Obama win is critical to clean energy transition – Romney will only support oil and gas.

Taylor 8/23/12 (Heather Taylor, director of the Natural Resources Defense Council’s Action Fund, Innovation or More of the Same?, AUGUST 23, 2012, http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/sizing-up-romney-and-obama-ene.php)
Mitt Romney released his energy plan in New Mexico on Thursday, and while it appears short on detail, it follows a familiar pattern: more fossil fuels, less clean energy development. It’s the same approach America relied on for a century. President Obama recognizes it is time for something new. Obama has presided over the largest increase in clean energy this nation has ever seen. Thanks to a combination of government policies and private sector gumption, roughly 35 percent of all new power built in the United States in the last four years came from wind. The solar industry is 10 times the size it was just a few years ago and employs more than 100,000 Americans. Obama has made history by raising fuel efficiency standards to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. By pushing cars to go farther on a tank of gas, these standards will save consumers %241.7 trillion at the pump. Automakers are already hiring workers to get these cars on the road. Labor unions and automakers estimate the new standards will generate 570,000 jobs across the economyhttp://www.bluegreenalliance.org/news/publications/gearing-up. And because the standards cut our oil imports by one-third, they represent the biggest step America has taken to confront climate change. The administration also set the first-ever limits on carbon pollution from new power plants-a move that will help America create a cleaner, 21st century power fleet and reduce the threat of global warming. These breakthroughs secure our nation’s leadership of the 21st century global energy market. And they confirm the value of forward-looking innovation. Romney prefers to look to the past. He would dish out subsidies to mature oil and gas companies-some of the richest in the world-but starve clean energy innovators. Romney said he would kill the Production Tax Credit, the most effective incentive for wind energy and one that enjoys broad bipartisan support. The Ryan budget, meanwhile, would hand over %2440 billion in taxpayer dollars to oil companies at the same time it cuts clean energy investments 90 percent, down to just %241 billion.

Now is key to curbing climate change – wind power sends an international signal

Global Wind Energy Council ’12 ("Wind Energy Must be Key Climate Change Solution," http://www.gwec.net/index.php?id=136-http://www.gwec.net/index.php?id=136, Mike)
Climate change is now generally accepted to be the greatest environmental threat facing the world
AND
and the finance sector need for wind power to reach its full potential. 

Climate change results in multiple scenarios for extinction – it’s try or die for the aff

Sawin Senior Director of the Energy and Climate Change Program at the WorldWatch Institute Aug. ’12 (Janet, "Climate Change Poses Greater Security Threat than Terrorism," http://www.worldwatch.org/node/77, Mike)
As early as 1988, scientists cautioned that human tinkering with the Earth’s climate amounted
AND
carbon, with meaningful long-term targets that incorporate gradually declining caps. 

1NC Solvency

Prior court decisions doing exactly what they want to do in the context of Cold War trauma prove their method accomplishes nothing

Leege 2012 (David, J.D. candidate, May 2012, Catholic University of America, Columbus School of Law; M.S. Engineering Science, Naval Postgraduate School, 2006; B.S. Materials Engineering, Iowa State University, 2003, PREVENTING ATOMS FOR PEACE FROM BECOMING ATOMS OF TERROR: THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT IS NOT A VEHICLE FOR ADDRESSING TERRORISM, 61 Cath. U.L. Rev. 527)
Several years later, the Ninth Circuit amplified its view of the reasonably foreseeable requirement
AND
of nuclear war did not need to be considered in the EA. n88

They have it backwards- overturning the ruling WOULDN’T REMOVE TERRORISM FROM OUR DISCOURSE- the Ninth Circuit’s ruling was based on the NRC saying that a terrorist attack was likely in other instances.

The ruling DOES NOT say "always assume worst-case scenario, no matter what." It DOES allow a genuine confrontation with trauma because the impact statement could say the risk is extraordinarily low and/or phantasmal and/or made up.

The aff would move the specter of terrorism to the back of your mind to fester as the anxiety they read impacts to.

Leege 2012 (David, J.D. candidate, May 2012, Catholic University of America, Columbus School of Law; M.S. Engineering Science, Naval Postgraduate School, 2006; B.S. Materials Engineering, Iowa State University, 2003, PREVENTING ATOMS FOR PEACE FROM BECOMING ATOMS OF TERROR: THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT IS NOT A VEHICLE FOR ADDRESSING TERRORISM, 61 Cath. U.L. Rev. 527)
Applying this standard, the Ninth Circuit determined "that it was unreasonable for the
AND
the NRC with instructions to consider acts of terrorism in its analysis. n129

Their method accomplishes the EXACT OPPOSITE of its intention

The Third Circuit ruling DID NOT SAY TERRORISM SHOULDN’T BE EVALUATED, merely that they didn’t have to give a report on plane crashes into the plants. The REASON the court gave was that the resources of that investigation would TRADE OFF WITH SECURING AGAINST TERRORISM. They reinforce anxiety way more

Leege 2012 (David, J.D. candidate, May 2012, Catholic University of America, Columbus School of Law; M.S. Engineering Science, Naval Postgraduate School, 2006; B.S. Materials Engineering, Iowa State University, 2003, PREVENTING ATOMS FOR PEACE FROM BECOMING ATOMS OF TERROR: THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT IS NOT A VEHICLE FOR ADDRESSING TERRORISM, 61 Cath. U.L. Rev. 527)
G. New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection v. NRC¶ In July 2005
AND
other assigned functions to assure the safety and security of nuclear facilities." n147

The plan would result in an independent and secret Homeland Security Review- that would turn every decision into a possible "9/11 trauma moment"

Briggs 2012 (Alexander T., Managing the Line Between Nuclear Power and Nuclear Terror: Considering the Threat of Terrorism as an Environmental Impact,  J.D. Candidate 2012, Seton Hall University School of Law; B.A. 2005, Pittsburg State University, 8 Seton Hall Cir. Rev. 223, lexis)
3. Institute a Homeland Security Impact Statement¶ Just as NEPA requires federal agencies
AND
foreseeable environmental impacts, regardless of their independent causes, would therefore remain.

The plan EXCLUDES the public from deliberation on the risk of terrorism ensuring the debate is controlled by elites that manufacture risks- they affirm a risk society controlled by neocons

Briggs 2012 (Alexander T., Managing the Line Between Nuclear Power and Nuclear Terror: Considering the Threat of Terrorism as an Environmental Impact,  J.D. Candidate 2012, Seton Hall University School of Law; B.A. 2005, Pittsburg State University, 8 Seton Hall Cir. Rev. 223, lexis)
C. A Terrorism Assessment will Endanger the Public¶ "The public aspect of
AND
prohibits the public from accessing the information necessary to participate in this dialogue.

Only public deliberation moderates terrorist threats in the public realm
Michael Ignatieff, Carr professor of human rights at Harvard, 2004 Lesser Evils p. 18-19
To insist that justified exercises of coercion can be defined as a lesser evil is
AND
to our fellow citizens and submit to their judgment as to their correctness. 

Nuclear Power will not spread globally- zero risk of the advantage

Kessides 2012 (Ioannis N. Kessides, The World Bank, Development Research Group, The future of the nuclear industry reconsidered: Risks, uncertainties, and continued promise, Energy Policy, Volume 48, September 2012, Pages 185–208, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.05.008)
Throughout its history, nuclear power has been controversial and susceptible to instinctive rejection.
AND
reactors would simply be unsuitable for most developing countries with small electric grids.

Psychoanalysis loses reference to actual politics. It’s attempt to access change dissolves into this thin air.

McClean Lecturer in Philosophy, Molloy College, New York and Rutgers University, in ’1
~David E., "The Cultural Left and the Limits of Social Hope", Presented at the 2001 Annual Conference of the Society for the Advancement of American Philosophy, http://www.american-philosophy.org/archives/past_conference_programs/pc2001/Discussion%20papers/david_mcclean.htm~~
There is a lot of philosophical prose on the general subject of social justice.
AND
, lucky to have taken this decision before it had become too late.

Psychological determinism fails to explain society because it over simplifies.

deRoche, Dept. of Anthropology %26 Sociology @ U of Cape Breton, 2K3
(John E. Psychological Reductionism: A "Model" Essay Illustrating Citation and Referencing Technique, faculty.uccb.ns.ca/cdr/Psych%20Reductionism.pdf~
According to one basic reference work in sociology, the phenomenon of "psychological reductionism
AND
of flour, a bottle of water, and a basket of tomatoes. 

Psycho-analysis is not useful for explaining society – it obscures an understanding of material conditions

Gibson, Lecturer in the Child Guidance Clinic @ U of Cape Town,  91-http://www.uct.ac.za/
~Kerry, Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation, Seminar No. 4, http://www.csvr.org.za/papers/papgib.htm~~
The explanation I have offered so far may, however, rightfully expose me to
AND
the State, than about the State itself as a material social entity.

Psychology is not the root cause of security scenarios – can manage conflict in important degrees

Blight, Watson Institute for International Studies Professor, Professional Psychologist, 1987~James, "Toward a Policy-Relevant Psychology of Avoiding Nuclear War," American psychologist, vol 42, issue 1, JSTOR~
The central, salient assumption of all nuclear depth  psychologists is that our "thinking
AND
record whereas the clinical diagnosis and prescriptions  of the depth psychologists do not.

Round 6—2NC

Solvency

Prior court decisions doing exactly what they want to do in the context of Cold War trauma prove their method accomplishes nothing

Leege 2012 (David, J.D. candidate, May 2012, Catholic University of America, Columbus School of Law; M.S. Engineering Science, Naval Postgraduate School, 2006; B.S. Materials Engineering, Iowa State University, 2003, PREVENTING ATOMS FOR PEACE FROM BECOMING ATOMS OF TERROR: THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT IS NOT A VEHICLE FOR ADDRESSING TERRORISM, 61 Cath. U.L. Rev. 527)
Several years later, the Ninth Circuit amplified its view of the reasonably foreseeable requirement
AND
of nuclear war did not need to be considered in the EA. n88

They have it backwards- overturning the ruling WOULDN’T REMOVE TERRORISM FROM OUR DISCOURSE- the Ninth Circuit’s ruling was based on the NRC saying that a terrorist attack was likely in other instances.

The ruling DOES NOT say "always assume worst-case scenario, no matter what." It DOES allow a genuine confrontation with trauma because the impact statement could say the risk is extraordinarily low and/or phantasmal and/or made up.

The aff would move the specter of terrorism to the back of your mind to fester as the anxiety they read impacts to.

Leege 2012 (David, J.D. candidate, May 2012, Catholic University of America, Columbus School of Law; M.S. Engineering Science, Naval Postgraduate School, 2006; B.S. Materials Engineering, Iowa State University, 2003, PREVENTING ATOMS FOR PEACE FROM BECOMING ATOMS OF TERROR: THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT IS NOT A VEHICLE FOR ADDRESSING TERRORISM, 61 Cath. U.L. Rev. 527)
Applying this standard, the Ninth Circuit determined "that it was unreasonable for the
AND
the NRC with instructions to consider acts of terrorism in its analysis. n129

Their method accomplishes the EXACT OPPOSITE of its intention

The Third Circuit ruling DID NOT SAY TERRORISM SHOULDN’T BE EVALUATED, merely that they didn’t have to give a report on plane crashes into the plants. The REASON the court gave was that the resources of that investigation would TRADE OFF WITH SECURING AGAINST TERRORISM. They reinforce anxiety way more

Leege 2012 (David, J.D. candidate, May 2012, Catholic University of America, Columbus School of Law; M.S. Engineering Science, Naval Postgraduate School, 2006; B.S. Materials Engineering, Iowa State University, 2003, PREVENTING ATOMS FOR PEACE FROM BECOMING ATOMS OF TERROR: THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT IS NOT A VEHICLE FOR ADDRESSING TERRORISM, 61 Cath. U.L. Rev. 527)
G. New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection v. NRC¶ In July 2005
AND
other assigned functions to assure the safety and security of nuclear facilities." n147

The plan would result in an independent and secret Homeland Security Review- that would turn every decision into a possible "9/11 trauma moment"

Briggs 2012 (Alexander T., Managing the Line Between Nuclear Power and Nuclear Terror: Considering the Threat of Terrorism as an Environmental Impact,  J.D. Candidate 2012, Seton Hall University School of Law; B.A. 2005, Pittsburg State University, 8 Seton Hall Cir. Rev. 223, lexis)
3. Institute a Homeland Security Impact Statement¶ Just as NEPA requires federal agencies
AND
foreseeable environmental impacts, regardless of their independent causes, would therefore remain.

The plan EXCLUDES the public from deliberation on the risk of terrorism ensuring the debate is controlled by elites that manufacture risks- they affirm a risk society controlled by neocons

Briggs 2012 (Alexander T., Managing the Line Between Nuclear Power and Nuclear Terror: Considering the Threat of Terrorism as an Environmental Impact,  J.D. Candidate 2012, Seton Hall University School of Law; B.A. 2005, Pittsburg State University, 8 Seton Hall Cir. Rev. 223, lexis)
C. A Terrorism Assessment will Endanger the Public¶ "The public aspect of
AND
prohibits the public from accessing the information necessary to participate in this dialogue.

Only public deliberation moderates terrorist threats in the public realm
Michael Ignatieff, Carr professor of human rights at Harvard, 2004 Lesser Evils p. 18-19
To insist that justified exercises of coercion can be defined as a lesser evil is
AND
to our fellow citizens and submit to their judgment as to their correctness. 

Read

This education is uniquely important because post 9-11 responses to terror makes some government violence inevitable – the only way to ensure that violence doesn’t escalate out of control is by rejecting the impulse of utopianism and learning to debate about the consequences of political adoption
Michael Ignatieff, Carr professor of human rights at Harvard, 2004 Lesser Evils p. 18-19
To insist that justified exercises of coercion can be defined as a lesser evil is
AND
to our fellow citizens and submit to their judgment as to their correctness. 

Extremism Cards

This moderation of extremist politics prevents the global War on Terror from spiraling into either anarchy or tyranny
Michael Ignatieff, Carr professor of human rights at Harvard, 2004 Lesser Evils p. xv-4
The third chapter, "The Weakness of the Strong," seeks to explain why
AND
the extent of country and the number comprehended under the same government.4 

Extremism Turn
C. Polarized extremism when combined with an absence of democratic accountability is the cause of history’s worst atrocities
Michael Ignatieff, Carr professor of human rights at Harvard, 2004 Lesser Evils p. 65-6
This is not to deny that the Weimar constitution suffered from weaknesses. It was
AND
sustain the unity necessary to take firm measures against violence at both extremes.

Psychoanalysis

Psychoanalysis loses reference to actual politics. It’s attempt to access change dissolves into this thin air.

McClean Lecturer in Philosophy, Molloy College, New York and Rutgers University, in ’1
~David E., "The Cultural Left and the Limits of Social Hope", Presented at the 2001 Annual Conference of the Society for the Advancement of American Philosophy, http://www.american-philosophy.org/archives/past_conference_programs/pc2001/Discussion%20papers/david_mcclean.htm~~
There is a lot of philosophical prose on the general subject of social justice.
AND
, lucky to have taken this decision before it had become too late.

Psychological determinism fails to explain society because it over simplifies.

deRoche, Dept. of Anthropology %26 Sociology @ U of Cape Breton, 2K3
(John E. Psychological Reductionism: A "Model" Essay Illustrating Citation and Referencing Technique, faculty.uccb.ns.ca/cdr/Psych%20Reductionism.pdf~
According to one basic reference work in sociology, the phenomenon of "psychological reductionism
AND
of flour, a bottle of water, and a basket of tomatoes. 

Psycho-analysis is not useful for explaining society – it obscures an understanding of material conditions

Gibson, Lecturer in the Child Guidance Clinic @ U of Cape Town,  91-http://www.uct.ac.za/
~Kerry, Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation, Seminar No. 4, http://www.csvr.org.za/papers/papgib.htm~~
The explanation I have offered so far may, however, rightfully expose me to
AND
the State, than about the State itself as a material social entity.

Psychology is not the root cause of security scenarios – can manage conflict in important degrees

Blight, Watson Institute for International Studies Professor, Professional Psychologist, 1987~James, "Toward a Policy-Relevant Psychology of Avoiding Nuclear War," American psychologist, vol 42, issue 1, JSTOR~
The central, salient assumption of all nuclear depth  psychologists is that our "thinking
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record whereas the clinical diagnosis and prescriptions  of the depth psychologists do not.

Round 6—1NR

1NR Round 6

*Elections

Not too early – historical data disproves
Abramowitz, 12
(Alan, Senior Columnist, Center For Politics.org, Prof Poli Sci @ Emory, 5/23, http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/what-does-president-obama%E2%80%99s-may-approval-rating-tell-us-about-his-reelection-chances/-http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/what-does-president-obama%E2%80%99s-may-approval-rating-tell-us-about-his-reelection-chances/)

According to a Gallup Poll analysis of recent polling data on the mood of the
AND
Day, has a strong relationship to the eventual outcome of the election.

At: Eco Reps

Apocalyptic rhetoric is critical to effective solutions to climate change – combining Apocalyptic rhetoric with Utopian solutions like the plan is critical to developing and implementing solutions to warming.
Kamminga, IR @ Groningen, 8
(Menno, "The Ethics of Climate politics: four modes of moral discourse," Environmental politics 17(4), Informa) ~Elliot~
The separate importance of prophetic discourse for climate ethics seems clear from the above treatment
AND
and thereby stress desirable, even if not very realistic, human possibilities. 

Framing climate change and energy policy through the lenses of public polices are necessary to generate macro and micro change- debate is a unique opportunity to enlighten warming nay-sayers.

Matthew C. Nisbet, 8- ’10 (Professor of Communication, American University and AB in Government from Dartmouth College. Communicating Climate Change: Why Frames Matter for Public Engagement, Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 51:2, 12-23)
U.S. presidents, especially newly elected ones, are often given discretion
AND
a reexamination of the assumptions that have traditionally informed climate change communication efforts.

Scientific Consensus Based on Climate Models and Observational Data That Warming is Real and Anthropogenic

By Joe Romm on Aug 28, 2012 at 12:29 pm OE ROMM is a Fellow at American Progress and is the editor of Climate Progress "Meteorological Society: Warming Is ’Unequivocal’, We’re The ’Dominant Cause’, We Need ’Rapid Reduction’ Of CO2"
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/28/757991/meteorological-society-warming-is-unequivocal-were-the-dominant-cause-we-need-rapid-reduction-of-co2/
The American Meteorological Society has updated and strengthened its statement on global warming.¶ Here
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, amplifying the impact of human-induced increases in other greenhouse gases….

Science is the opposite of domination – scientific knowledge liberates and improves lives.

Bronner 04 Stephen Eric Bronner, Professor of Political Science at Rutgers University, 2004, Reclaiming the Enlightenment: Toward a Politics of Radical Engagement, p. 21-23
Something will always be missing: freedom will never become fully manifest in reality.
AND
the contrary: progress became meaningful only with reference to real liv¬ing individuals. 

At: Ontology First

The affs focus on ontology prevents any change, only the ethic offered by the pragmatism can fully solve for environmental problems

Hirokawa 2 (Keith, Stanford Environmental Law Review, June 2002, 21 Stan. Envtl. L.J. 225)
However, Delgado’s critique is not aimed at the way in which environmental stewards approach
AND
a culture but by ~our~ ability to transcend old cultural forms." 

Instead of a focus on ontology, we should look first to pragmatism

Putnam 4 (Hilary, Harvard University. http://evans-experientialism.freewebspace.com/ethics_without_ontology.htm)
When in the last of these four lectures I present an obituary on the project
AND
using a rather pragmatist turn of phrase—of "the engine idling.

Tournament: Gonzaga | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
Technological advancements intentionally mask destruction of the environment
Luke 1 (Timothy W., Prof @ Virginia Tech "World Health and the Environment: Globalization’s Ambiguities." http://www.cddc.vt.edu/tim/tims/TIM807.htm)
2001 could be better understood as the year in which ambiguities are overcome, and
AND
for whom democratic procedures are invalid" (Beck, 1992: 14).
Environmental management causes ecological degradation by viewing Nature as an arrange-able resource for human consumption- justifies domination and destruction
Katz 2k (Eric, associate professor of philosophy and director of the Science, Technology, and Society Program, New Jersey Institute of Technology, "Nature as Subject: Human Obligation and Natural Community.")
Even more important, the question arises whether or not Nature can heal these wounds
AND
Human science and technology will fix, repair, and improve natural processes.
Alt is to reject techno-managerialism, only then can we establish a relationship with nature
McWhorter 92 (Ladelle, Prof of Philosophy and Women, Gender %26 Sexuality studies @ Univ. of Richmond  "Guilt as Management Technology: A Call to Heideggerian Reflection" Heidegger and the Earth, pg. 1-4)
Heidegger calls us to give thought to — or give ourselves over to thought of
AND
also ground the most basic patterns of our current ways of being human.

Tournament: Gonzaga | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
The United State Federal Government should ban all financial energy incentives.
Energy subsidies must be eliminated to spur innovation and become competitive in the market
Phillips, president of Americans for Prosperity, the nation’s leading free-market grass-roots organization and From, Illinois state director of Americans for Prosperity, the nation’s leading free-market grass-roots organization, 6-28-12 (Tim Phillips and David From, "Eliminate Energy Subsidies", State Journal Register, http://www.sj-r.com/opinions/x1762345964/Tim-Phillips-and-David-From-Eliminate-energy-subsidies?zc_p=0-http://www.sj-r.com/opinions/x1762345964/Tim-Phillips-and-David-From-Eliminate-energy-subsidies?zc_p=0)====
Obviously, it’s time for lawmakers to realize that if a new technology truly has
AND
their professed free-market principles and get rid of these special giveaways.
Politics is a net benefit
Randazzo, ’12 INCENTIVES AT EVERY TURN By Ryan Randazzo, Posted 5/6/2012 The Arizona Republic http://www.usatoday.com/USCP/PNI/Business/2012-05-06-PNI0506biz-subsidiesPNIBrd_ST_U.htm
Amid all the debate regarding subsidies, political polar opposites have found common ground calling
AND
), you need to work together with people that are aligned with you."

Tournament: GOnzaga | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
The fifty United States and relevant territories should provide Cash Grants to nontaxable entities for community and residential solar power.
States solve best and the feds will model- starting with the states is key to avoid politics
Thomson and Arroyo 2011 (Vivian Thomson is an Associate Professor in the Departments of
AND
, 29 Va. Envtl. L.J. 1, lexis)
Overview¶ ¶ When it comes to fixing the broken politics of global warming,
AND
policymaking demands a new, "upside-down" cooperative federalism model.

Tournament: Gonzaga | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
Natural gas is dominating the energy sector now – abundant shale gas supplies
Conrad 8/9/12 (Roger S. Conrad is editor of Utility Forecaster, August 9, 2012, Natural Gas Prices Tick Up On Hot Weather, But Investors Shouldn’t Expect Much More Upside, http://seekingalpha.com/article/795201-natural-gas-prices-tick-up-on-hot-weather-but-investors-shouldn-t-expect-much-more-upside)
Four months ago, natural gas bottomed out at a 10-year low of
AND
return to even last summer’s price range of %244 to %245.
Solar energy is zero sum with natural gas – there is a direct trade-off.
Jerusalem Post -12 (Jerusalem Post, November 12, 2010, The politics of solar power, DAVID SHAMAH , Lexis)
UN IS SUN, and electricity is electricity - or should be, says MK
AND
Corporation main lines, and the electricity generated is transferred to IEC substations.
Natural gas is critical to the steel industry, competitiveness, economy and energy independence.
Gibson -12 (Thomas Gibson, January 17, 2012,  President %26 CEO, American Iron and Steel Institute, Steel Industry Poised to Gain with Gas, http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/01/whats-ahead-for-natural-gas.php)
Domestic natural gas holds the potential to yield unsurpassed economic and energy benefits for the
AND
that the current low cost and availability are driving this remarkable manufacturing renaissance.
Resource tension causes nuclear conflict with Russia and China – the impact is extinction
Henderson 7, Besline Research CEO/President/consultant, (Bill, CounterCurrents.org, February 24, "Climate Change, Peak Oil, and Nuclear War", http://www.countercurrents.org/cc-henderson240207.htm-http://www.countercurrents.org/cc-henderson240207.htm, 7/9/08)
Countercurrents.org-http://www.countercurrents.org/cc-henderson240207.htm By Bill Henderson  Damocles had one life threatening sword hanging by a
AND
to extinction for humanity and much of what we now recognize as nature. 

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
Solar companies provide a laundry list of fail buckets
Globe and Mail, July 14th 2012, In the darkness, solar industry sees some light; As vanishing subsidies and plunging panel prices send companies into bankruptcy, there are some rays of hope signalling that this alternative energy may be on a path to recovery, Lexis
one- Solyndra, an upstart California solar panel maker that got more than
AND
generators), withdrew an %24183-million initial public offering in April,
Solar power ineffective investment even Jaba the Hut companies fail
Chumley, Cherly. BP gives up on solar power. 2/2/12. http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2012/02/02/bp-gives-solar-power-http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2012/02/02/bp-gives-solar-power**
BP, an energy company that won praise from environmental activists after adopting the slogan
AND
in an open marketplace against the reliability and low cost of fossil fuels."
Solar power has excess capacity in the squo, it is pointless to increase production incentives
Wang, Ucilia. 6/27/12. Forbes. Report: Solar panel supply will far exceed demand beyond 2012. http://www.forbes.com/sites/uciliawang/2012/06/27/report-solar-panel-production-will-far-exceed-demand-beyond-2012/-http://www.forbes.com/sites/uciliawang/2012/06/27/report-solar-panel-production-will-far-exceed-demand-beyond-2012/.
When solar equipment manufactures began posting big losses during 2011, forcing some to close
AND
half or plan to add more production lines in the next few years.
3. It doesn’t matter how much costs have changed, Americans still have perceptions it costs way too much and aren’t interested
Business Wire, April 25th 2012, New Data Shows 97% of Americans Overestimate the Cost of Installing Solar Panels; National Survey Reveals Misconceptions Prevent 2 out of 3 Homeowners from Going Solar, Lexis
Sunrun , the nation’s largest home solar company, today announced results of a nationwide
AND
solar within the next year if they knew cost were not a factor.
What Americans Think it Costs to Go Solar
Increasing production only drains already stressed non-resources, and links to climate change
McKinnon, Shaun. 01/17/10. Amid state’s push for solar power, water-supply worries arise.http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2010/01/17/20100117water-solar0117.html.
Arizona can offer solar-energy developers legendary sun-drenched skies and thousands of
AND
power projects are expected to develop. "With all the buzz about r
enewables, we better be careful that the solar energy we produce is not the
AND
, a community activist who has worked on a water-advisory group.
Concentrated Solar Power trends are misleading – it cant compete
PR Newswire, Feb 7th 2012, Concentrating Solar Power (CSP), Lexis
The seemingly smooth upward curve of CSP productions hides some facts that will impinge future
AND
are not permanent, they will retard implementation of CSP for a few years 

Tournament: Gonzag | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
F-35 being funded now– new budget proposals can derail
Jeremiah Gertler, February 16, 2012 Specialist in Military Aviation, F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) Program, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RL30563.pdf~~
FY2012 defense authorization act: The report on the House-passed version of the
AND
the SAC mark funded %24695¶ million less than the Administration request.
Short-term shift in defense budget causes serious disruptions in funding for Operation and Maintenance- this hallows out the military and destroys military superiority
Koehl, 10-31-’8 (Stuart- Fellow at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, senior research fellow on US-European defense cooperation at the Center for Transatlantic Relations "The Unbearable Lightness of Barney; A Democratic congressman’s irresponsible and impossible plan to cut the defense budget by 25 percent", The Weekly Standard)
The first thing to know is the Defense budget is not a pot of money
AND
. So we aren’t going to be able to cut O%26M.
F-35s key to hegemony—cutting them would kill the aerospace industry and alliances
Donnelly, 2011 - director of the Center for Defense Studies 7/18/11Thomas, The Weekly Standard, "An Extremely Immodest Proposal," http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/extremely-immodest-proposal_576967.html?, accessed 7/24/)
No doubt the legal and monetary obligations would be great, but the strategic,
AND
and production experience to make stealthy, manned combat aircraft will rapidly disappear.
Biggest Impact- Solves all conflict
Lowther, PhD, military defense analyst at the Air Force Research Institute, Fall 10 (Adam, "Air Diplomacy Protecting American National Interests" http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2010/fall/lowther.pdf)
Air diplomacy is likely to become more important because of the speed, flexibility,
AND
is equally desirable. Air diplomacy is a primary contributor to that mission.

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
SQ will decrease emissions by 80% by 2050- maintaining the transition key to solve warming and avoid peak oil impacts
Lovins 2012 (Amory, physicist, environmental scientist, writer, and Chairman/Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, Oxford MA, A Farewell to Fossil Fuels: Answering the Energy Challenge, Foreign Affairs, March/April, proquest)
Weaning the United States from those fossil fuels would require two big shifts: in
AND
last, Americans could make energy do their work without working their undoing.
Nuke power trades off with renewables, jacks short-term transition key to solve warming and peak fossil fuel
Conolley 2011 (Heather, PhD Candidate in Political Science at UC- Santa Barbara, The Renaissance of Nuclear Energy in the Shadow of Climate Change, PhD Dissertation, proquest)
Given the long lead time associated with development and reactor ¶ construction, nuclear opponents
AND
). Thus opportunity costs for constructing nuclear reactors must be ¶ carefully considered.
Transition away from oil NOW key
Yetiv and Fowler 2011 (Dr. Steve Yetiv is University Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Old Dominion University, Eric Fowler is a Military Intelligence Officer in the US Army and PhD student at Old Dominion in International Studies, The Challenges of Decreasing Oil Consumption, Political Science Quarterly126. 2, proquest)
No one can predict an oil peak definitely or guess its specific effects. However
AND
oil, the less serious would be the potential effects of peak oil.
Peak oil destroys the global economy
Seljom and Rosenberg 2011 (Pernille and Eva, Institute for Energy Technology (Norway), A study of oil and natural gas resources and production, International Journal of Energy Sector Management5. 1(2011): 101-124. Proquest)
The long-term development of energy systems is characterised by a high degree of
AND
of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production.
Econ collapse causes extinction
Auslin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, "The Global Economy Unravels", Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)
What do these trends mean in the short and medium term? The Great Depression
AND
may be a series of small explosions that coalesce into a big bang.
Warming guarantees multiple positive feedbacks triggering extinction, adaptation cannot solve
Tickell ’8 (Oliver, Climate Researcher, "On a Planet 4C Hotter, All We Can Prepare for is Extinction," The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange-http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)
We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming-http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/aug/06/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange, Bob Watson told
AND
warming caused by human emissions could propel us towards a similar hothouse Earth. 

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
A. The aff must defend a topical plan and its implementation by the United States federal government.
The colon means the USFG is the agent of the res
Webster’s Guide to Grammar and Writing, 2K (http://ccc.commnet.edu/grammar/marks/colon.htm-http://ccc.commnet.edu/grammar/marks/colon.htm)
Use of a colon before a list or an explanation that is preceded by a clause that can stand by itself. Think of the colon as a gate, inviting one to go on… If the introductory phrase preceding the colon is very brief and the clause following the colon represents the real business of the sentence, begin the clause after the colon with a capital letter.
That excludes individual action
Black’s Law Dictionary, ’99 (Seventh Edition Ed. Bryan A. Garner (chief))
Federal government 1. A national government that exercises some degree of control over smaller political units that have surrendered some degree of power in exchange for the right to participate in national political matters.
C. Energy POLICY matters and we need policy action to address the pressing energy needs of the US and the world- Must evaluate consequences
Wirth, Gray %26 Podesta, very qualified, ’3 The Future  of Energy
AND
Clinton. Volume 82 • Number 4 Foreign Affairs 2003 Council on Foreign Relations
The big questions A century ago, Lord Selborne, the first lord of the
AND
challenges and the interests that can be mobilized for the necessary political change. 

Abstract intellectualism is useless—environmental philosophers should orient themselves towards real-life problems.

Avner De-Shalit, 2k. Professor of Political Theory at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and Associate Fellow at the Oxford Centre for Environment, Ethics, and Society, Mansfield College, Oxford University. "The Environment: Between Theory and Practice," p. 20, Questia.
So animal rights philosophers have been missing the chance to find a way to many
AND
philosophers who suggest this idea, and scorn all such claims as nonsense.
Policymakers will inevitably make predictions—the only question is whether they’re based off of explicit or implicit threats. Failure to make predictions based off of explicit risk calculation guarantees poor decisionmaking.
Fitzsimmons, 07  (Michael, defense analyst in Washington DC. "The Problem of Uncertainty in Strategic Planning", Survival, Winter 06/07)
In defence of prediction  Uncertainty is not a new phenomenon for strategists. Clausewitz knew
AND
reinvigorate their efforts in the messy but indispensable business of predicting the future.
Scenario planning is vital to create appropriate risk assessments
Kurasawa, 04 (Professor of Sociology, York University of Toronto, Fuyuki, Constellations Volume 11, No 4, 2004)
A radically postmodern line of thinking, for instance, would lead us to believe
AND
early warning is making its way into preventive action on the global stage.  
Nuclear war comes first
Kateb, Professor of Politics at Princeton University, ’92 (George, "The Inner Ocean" p 111-112)
Schell’s work attempts to force on us an acknowledgment that sounds far-fetched and
AND
hence as morally allowed, perhaps enjoined, to take the appropriate preserving step

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
1NC Solvency
The plan makes no sense- the DoD can’t do domestic deployment- ONLY military
Hunt, 1ac author, 11 (Gary L, 30 years experience in the energy, software and information technology industries,  Tech%26Creative Labs, "Is there a Small Modular Nuke in our Distributed Energy Future?," May 31, ~www.tclabz.com/2011/05/31/is-there-a-small-modular-nuke-in-our-distributed-energy-future/)
What the US military needs according to Colonel Roege is clean, modular, transportable
AND
applications should speed the path to small modular nuclear units in civilian applications.
Thorium reactors don’t solve – not commercially viable, produces more waste, and technically inefficient
Rees, 11 (Eifion, staff @ The Ecologist, "Don’t believe the spin on thorium being a greener nuclear option", 6/23/11, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/23/thorium-nuclear-uranium-http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/23/thorium-nuclear-uranium)
In his reading, thorium is merely a way of deflecting attention and criticism from
AND
players is interested. Thorium reactors are no more than a distraction.’
Thorium is a SERIOUS hazard and more costly than uranium
Makhijani %26 Boyd, 9 (Arjun, President of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, holds a Ph.D. in engineering (specialization: nuclear fusion) from the University of California at Berkeley, and Michele, former director of the Safe Energy Program at Physicians for Social Responsibility, Staff Scientist at the Institute for IEER, "Thorium Fuel: No Panacea for Nuclear Power", July 2009, http://ieer.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/thorium2009factsheet.pdf-http://ieer.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/thorium2009factsheet.pdf) WP
Ongoing Technical Problems ¶ Research and development of thorium fuel has been undertaken in Germany
AND
protection more difficult and expensive for a given level ¶ of annual dose.
1NC Prolif
Thorium makes the waste problem worse – decays far slower and more dangerous
Makhijani %26 Boyd, 9 (Arjun, President of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, holds a Ph.D. in engineering (specialization: nuclear fusion) from the University of California at Berkeley, and Michele, former director of the Safe Energy Program at Physicians for Social Responsibility, Staff Scientist at the Institute for IEER, "Thorium Fuel: No Panacea for Nuclear Power", July 2009, http://ieer.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/thorium2009factsheet.pdf-http://ieer.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/thorium2009factsheet.pdf) WP
Not a Waste Solution¶ Proponents claim that thorium fuel significantly reduces the volume,
AND
hazardous non-radioactive ¶ metals in both thorium and uranium mill tailings.
Thorium doesn’t solve risk of prolif – produces even more bomb-making material
Makhijani %26 Boyd, 9 (Arjun, President of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, holds a Ph.D. in engineering (specialization: nuclear fusion) from the University of California at Berkeley, and Michele, former director of the Safe Energy Program at Physicians for Social Responsibility, Staff Scientist at the Institute for IEER, "Thorium Fuel: No Panacea for Nuclear Power", July 2009, http://ieer.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/thorium2009factsheet.pdf-http://ieer.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/thorium2009factsheet.pdf) WP
Not a Proliferation Solution¶ Thorium is not actually a "fuel" because it
AND
the same temptation to reprocess as today’s once-through uranium fuel cycles.
Nuclear Power will not spread globally- zero risk of the advantage
Kessides 2012 (Ioannis N. Kessides, The World Bank, Development Research Group, The future of the nuclear industry reconsidered: Risks, uncertainties, and continued promise, Energy Policy, Volume 48, September 2012, Pages 185–208, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.05.008)
Throughout its history, nuclear power has been controversial and susceptible to instinctive rejection.
AND
reactors would simply be unsuitable for most developing countries with small electric grids.

1. They don’t solve Allyson, isolates Russian HEU as open to theft which means they don’t solve
   2. No risk of another major terrorist attack—There have been no domestic attacks since 9/11 and terrorists have learned that such efforts are counterproductive
   Mueller 6 (John, Foreign Affairs, September October 2006, p.2)
   A fully credible explanation for the fact that the United States has suffered no terrorist
   AND
   taxing all to defend the United States against an enemy that scarcely exists.
   3. Risk of terrorist attack exaggerated
   Carle 8 (Glenn L., member of the CIA’s Clandestine Service for 23 years  "Overstating our fears about Osama bin Laden and others of his ilk," The Salt Lake Tribune, http://www.sltrib.com/opinion/ci_9901142)
   Sen. John McCain has repeatedly characterized the threat of "radical Islamic extremism"
   AND
   for the small, lethal, disjointed and miserable opponents that they are.
   4. it’s too hard to pull off, no terrorists and small attacks don’t access their impacts
   Schneier 10 – Crytographer, Computer Security Specialist, Writer, M.A. from American University (Bruce, "Schneier on Security", Bruce Scheneier Blog, May 5th 2010, May 7th 2010, http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2010/05/why_arent_there.html,)
   Why Aren’t There More Terrorist Attacks?  As the details of the Times Square car
   AND
   the people, and you’re probably going to slip up and get caught.
   5. There are institutional and professional reasons to inflate the risk of terrorism
   Mueller 4 (John, Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies at the Mershon Center at Ohio State University, Regulation, Fall)
   In addition, it should be pointed out that the response to September 11 has
   AND
   Call this the Y2K effect.) Disproved Pollyannas have no such convenient refuge.
   6. There is no nuclear black market
   Frost 5 (Robin, teaches political science at Simon Fraser University, British Colombia, "Nuclear Terrorism after 9/11," Adelphi Papers, December)
   The nuclear black market. There is no evidence in the open-source literature
   AND
   engineer, sold uranium hexafluoride, the feedstock for enrichment, to Libya.
   7. Extensive checks prove no loose nukes
   Frost 5 (Robin, teaches political science at Simon Fraser University, British Colombia, "Nuclear Terrorism after 9/11," Adelphi Papers, December)
   In fact, all the evidence is that the weapons were indeed safely withdrawn.  
   AND
   , nor Iraq nor Iran could make use of these explosive devices.’

Tournament: NU | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
CIR will pass but PC’s key- it’s top of the agenda
WSJ 2/8/2013 (Wall Street Journal, Muñoz Interview: White House Expects Broad Immigration Bill, http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/02/08/white-house-expects-broad-immigration-bill/)
The White House point woman on
sure we get over the finish line.”
There is massive opposition to the plan.
Levi 12 (Michael is a Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “A Strategy for U.S. Natural Gas Exports,” June, http://www.hamiltonproject.org/files/downloads_and_links/06_exports_levi.pdf)
But there is also great wariness
desire to secure cheap energy inputs for their industries.
PC’s key- ensures agreement on details and overcomes objections
ABC News 1/25/2013 (White House, Senators to Begin Push on Immigration Reform, http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/News/white-house-senators-begin-push-immigration-reform/story?id=18315277)
But the debate over a pathway to
without people pushing from the outside."
CIR key to reverse the signal of SB 1070
Lach 2012 (Alex, Assistant Editor in Online Communications at American Progress, BA in Political Science from Tufts, The Top 5 Reasons Why S.B. 1070 Damages America, 6/25, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/news/2012/06/25/11785/the-top-5-reasons-why-s-b-1070-damages-america/)
5. The policies make the United States
and serves our nation’s best interest.
SB 1070 kills heg and cooperation key to solving free trade, terrorism, and prolif
Steinberg 2010 (James B., Deputy Secretary of State, former Dean of the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, Deputy National Security Adviser on the staff of the National Security Council, President and Director of Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, affidavit filed in US v. Arizona, UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE DISTRICT OF ARIZONA, Case 2:10-cv-01413-NVW Document 6-1 Filed 07/06/10, http://www.scribd.com/doc/33977183/U-S-v-Arizona-Exh-1-to-Motion-for-Preliminary-Injunction-Affidavit-of-James-Steinberg)
10.Second, S.B. 1070 necessarily antagonizes
constituents and the treatment of their own nationals abroad.
Nuclear Conflict
Gray, Professor of International Politics and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, and founded of the National Institute for Public Policy, 2K4 (Colin, “The Sheriff: America’s Defense of the New World Order, pg. 10)
If the United States declines the honor
conflict with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) at that.

Tournament: NU | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
Won’t pass- it’ll die in the House now
National Journal 2/7/2013 (Immigration Reform: House Not Leading, Senate Not Moving–Yet, http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/immigration-reform-house-not-leading-senate-not-moving-yet-20130206)
It was the congressional version of Fight Club: a bipartisan
take a politically tough vote only to have reform die.
The plan is massively popular
Bloomberg 11-8-12 (“Natural Gas That Backed Romney May Gain From Obama Win,” http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-07/natural-gas-that-backed-romney-may-gain-from-obama-win#p1, Mike)
Natural gas producers such as Exxon
the president’s actions match his words?”
PC’s key- ensures agreement on details and overcomes objections
ABC News 1/25/2013 (White House, Senators to Begin Push on Immigration Reform, http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/News/white-house-senators-begin-push-immigration-reform/story?id=18315277)
But the debate over a pathway
because nothing happens in the Capitol without people pushing from the outside."
CIR massively boosts high skill visas
LA Times 11/9/2012 (Other countries eagerly await U.S. immigration reform, http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/11/us-immigration-reform-eagerly-awaited-by-source-countries.html)
"Comprehensive immigration reform
enhances links to the global economy, Lowell said.
Visa caps are key to innovation offshoring
Lewin, Massini and Peeters 2008 (Arie, Professor of Strategy and International Business at the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University; Silvia, Senior Lecturer at Manchester Business School; Carine, Senior Research Fellow, Solvay Business School, ECARES and Centre Emile Bernheim; Why Are Companies Offshoring Innovation? The Emerging Global Race for Talent*, https://offshoring.fuqua.duke.edu/pdfs/conference2009/Lewin%20Massini%20Peeters%20JIBS%20paper.pdf)
ORN data show that “access to qualified personnel
competitive pressures and speed to market.
Only offshoring ensures US competitiveness
Manning, Massini and Lewin 2008 (Stephan, Senior Research Associate at the Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER) at the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University; Silvia, Senior Lecturer in Economics and Technology Management at Manchester Business School, University of Manchester; Arie, Professor of Strategy and International Business, Lead Principal Investigator of the Offshoring Research Network (ORN), and Director of the Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER) at the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, A Dynamic Perspective on Next-Generation Offshoring: The Global Sourcing of Science and Engineering Talent, http://ssrn.com/abstract=1287369)
These trends also have important policy implications.
networks may build up a competitive advantage over those pursuing a purely domestic strategy.
US competitiveness is key to hegemony
Adam Segal, Maurice R. Greenberg Senior Fellow in China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Practical Engagement: Drawing a Fine Line for U.S.-China Trade,” The Washington Quarterly 2004 Summer
The brevity of the list of technologies the United States
'run faster' than its competitors." n31
Hegemony solves nuclear war
Khalilzad 1995 – RAND, Ambassador to Afghanistan
Washington Quarterly, Spring
Under the third option, the United States would seek
U.S. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system.

Tournament: NU | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
The aff’s linear analysis of energy systems creates rigid explanations that bracket out a complex analysis of the linkages between energy systems that is necessary for creating sustainable energy futures
Snyder and Schwab 2012 Neil Snyder-National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Amy Schwab-National Renewable Energy Laboratory APPROACHES FOR PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTING SUSTAINABLE ENERGY GROWTH IN A COMPLEX WORLD This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC36-08-G028308 with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/54506.pdf
5. EXPLORING OUR ANALYTICAL TOOL KIT¶ Understanding
longer term implications and the model’s shortcomings become apparent.
Multiple experts don’t make a claim vaild – the prediction business thrives upon finding a normative explanation for uncontrollable events
Dubner et al 11 (Steven Levitt William B. Ogden Distinguished Service Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago; Stephen J. Dubner¶ is an award-winning author, journalist, and TV and radio personality; Mixich, a reporter in Bucharest; Philip Tetlock, a¶ psychology professor at Penn and author of Expert Political Judgment; Christina Fang,a professor of management at NYU’s¶ Stern business school; Prusacki directs the statistics division at the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service; Nassim¶ Taleb Polytechnic Institute of New York University and Oxford University; Robin Hanson, an economist at George Mason¶ University "The Folly of Prediction: Full Transcript" Freakonomics Podcast June 30 http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/30/the-folly-of-prediction-full-transcript/)
LEVITT: That’s probably right. That’s exactly right
supply you get the infusion of fake supply.
K turns the whole aff- impacts are impossible to quantify and unexpected events will undermine solvency
Jervis, professor of international affairs – Columbia, ‘97
(Robert, “Complex Systems: The Role of Interactions,” in Complexity, Global Politics, and National Security, eds. David S. Alberts and Thomas J. Czerwinski, National Defense University)
Ripples move through channels established
people who took cover on August 6.
The alternative is a new predictive method that incorporates complexity – an ontological shift from simple to complex systems will open new paths to knowledge and generate different solutions to policy problems – status quo approaches inevitably fail
Harrison 6 (Neil, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Wyoming, Founder and Executive Director of the Sustainable Development Institute, “Thinking About the World We Make,” in Complexity in World Politics ed. Neil E. Harrison, State University of New York Press, 2006, p. 1-2)
¶ Despite nearly a hundred years of theorizing
world politics. In the final section of this chapter I outline the rest of the book.
Reject linear scenario planning in favor of complex theoretical analysis—unconditionally inserting complexity analysis into the simulation creates better policy planning
Rosenau 97 (James, professor emeritus of international affairs – George Washington University. “Many Damn Things Simultaneously: Complexity Theory and World Affairs,” in Complexity, Global Politics, and National Security, eds. David S. Alberts and Thomas J. Czerwinski, National Defense University)
In short, there are strict limits within which theorizing based on the premises of complexity
fragmegrated world and theorizing within its limits.

Tournament: D1 Quals | Round: 2 | Opponent: Cal Poly CK | Judge: 

1NC Topicality

Restrictions on production must mandate a decrease in the quantity produced

Anell 89 
Chairman, WTO panel "To examine, in the light of the relevant GATT provisions, the matter referred to the CONTRACTING PARTIES by the United States in document L/6445 and to make such findings as will assist the CONTRACTING PARTIES in making the recommendations or in giving the rulings provided for in Article XXIII:2." 3. On 3 April 1989, the Council was informed that agreement had been reached on the following composition of the Panel (C/164): Composition Chairman: Mr. Lars E.R. Anell Members: Mr. Hugh W. Bartlett Mrs. Carmen Luz Guarda CANADA - IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON ICE CREAM AND YOGHURT Report of the Panel adopted at the Forty-fifth Session of the CONTRACTING PARTIES on 5 December 1989 (L/6568 - 36S/68) http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/88icecrm.pdf

The United States argued that Canada had failed to demonstrate that it effectively restricted domestic
AND
to what the situation would be in the absence of all government measures. 

B Violation- TERA process just makes it harder- does not prohibit the development of renewables

Fosland 2012
~Benjamin J., Law Clerk to Chief Judge David W. Gratton, Idaho Court of Appeals, 2011–¶ 2012; J.D., cum laude, Gonzaga University School of Law, 2011; B.A., honors, University of ¶ Montana, 2008. "A CASE OF NOT-SO-FATAL FLAWS: ¶ RE-EVALUATING THE INDIAN TRIBAL ¶ ENERGY DEVELOPMENT AND ¶ SELF-DETERMINATION ACT" Idaho Law Review, Vol. 48 ¶ p. 453-4~

There have been many different criticisms leveled at ITEDSA and ¶ the tribal energy resource
AND
want to maximize their control over the development of tribal energy ¶ resources.

Voting issue –

1. Including regulations is a limits disaster.

Doub 76 
Energy Regulation: A Quagmire for Energy Policy Annual Review of Energy Vol. 1: 715-725 (Volume publication date November 1976) DOI: 10.1146/annurev.eg.01.110176.003435LeBoeuf, Lamb, Leiby %26 MacRae, 1757 N Street NW, Washington, DC 20036 Mr. Doub is a principal in the law firm of Doub and Muntzing, which he formed in 1977. Previously he was a partner in the law firm of LeBoeuf, Lamb, Leiby and MacRae. He was a member of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission in 1971 - 1974. He served as a member of the Executive Advisory Committee to the Federal Power Commission in 1968 - 1971 and was appointed by the President of the United States to the President’s Air Quality Advisory Board in 1970.  He is a member of the American Bar Association, Maryland State Bar Association, and Federal Bar Association. He is immediate past Chairman of the U.S. National Committee of the World Energy Conference and a member of the Atomic Industrial Forum. He currently serves as a member of the nuclear export policy committees of both the Atomic Industrial Forum and the American Nuclear Energy Council.  Mr. Doub graduated from Washington and Jefferson College (B.A., 1953) and the University of Maryland School of Law in 1956. He is married, has two children, and resides in Potomac, Md. He was born September 3, 1931, in Cumberland, Md. http://0-www.annualreviews.org.library.lausys.georgetown.edu/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev.eg.01.110176.003435

FERS began with the recognition that federal energy policy must result from concerted efforts in
AND
agencies. Unfortunately, this example is the rule rather than the exception. 

2. Precision – A distinction between regulation and restrictions is key.

Sinha 6 
http://www.indiankanoon.org/doc/437310/ Supreme Court of India Union Of India %26 Ors vs M/S. Asian Food Industries on 7 November, 2006 Author: S.B. Sinha Bench: S Sinha, Mark, E Katju CASE NO.: Writ Petition (civil) 4695 of 2006 PETITIONER: Union of India %26 Ors. RESPONDENT: M/s. Asian Food Industries DATE OF JUDGMENT: 07/11/2006  BENCH:  S.B. Sinha %26 Markandey Katju  JUDGMENT:  J U D G M E N T  ~Arising out of S.L.P. (Civil) No. 17008 of 2006~ WITH  CIVIL APPEAL NO. 4696 OF 2006 ~Arising out of S.L.P. (Civil) No. 17558 of 2006~  S.B. SINHA, J : 

We may, however, notice that this Court in State of U.P
AND
the word prohibiting or some such word, to bring out that effect." 

Extra Topical- they remove all of the secretary of the interiors authority not just those limited to topic energies- voter for fairness

Bidirectionality is independent voter- makes clash impossible when they link turn energy bad arguments

1NC CP 1

CP Text:

The United States federal government should:

• Reinstate federal liability in Tribal Energy Resource Agreements.

• Allow identification and incorporation of environmental mitigation measures at the discretion of individuals entering into Tribal Energy Resource Agreements.

• Acknowledge successful Public Law 638 compacts and contracts as equivalent to demonstrated capacity.

• Stream-line approval of Tribal Energy Resource Agreements and automatically approve Tribal Energy Resource Agreement proposals pending 271 days if inaction is taken on behalf of the Secretary of the Interior.

Changing the Secretary’s approval process solves the whole case—spurs wind development and balances self-determination with the trust doctrine

Royster 1AC Author 12, Co-Director – Native American Law Center @ University of Tulsa
(Judith V., "Tribal Energy Development: Renewables and the Problem of the Current Statutory Structures," March, 31 Stan. Envtl. L.J. 91)

Nonetheless, there are steps that can be taken to tighten up the approval process
AND
resources, and do so with more direct say in the development itself.

Reinstating liability avoids politics and solves energy development

Kronk 1AC Author 12, assistant professor of law – Texas Tech University,
(Elizabeth Ann, 29 Pace Envtl. L. Rev. 811)

B. An Alternative Possibility for Reform: Reinstate Federal Liability under the TERA Provisions
AND
, would encourage tribes to enter into TERAs with the Secretary of Interior.

And the Net Benefit

The plan opens up the floodgates for renewables – justifies corporate exploitation – Turns the aff – recreates neo-colonial structures

Mills 11 (Andrew D, Energy and Resources Group at UC Berkeley, Wind Energy in Indian Country: Turning to Wind for the Seventh Generation,")

Broadly, the idea of dependency is summarized in the common phrase "the development
AND
on their land, wind development is still subject to the dependency critique.

1NC Politics

CIR will pass- labor and business agreement provides momentum and bipart agreements- PC key to maintain the deal- vote in a few weeks

CSM 2/21/2013 (Behind-the-scenes deal pushes immigration reform closer to reality, http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2013/0221/Behind-the-scenes-deal-pushes-immigration-reform-closer-to-reality)
A compromise agreement announced Thursday between the nation’s largest labor union and the top advocate
AND
a solution that is in the interest of this country we all love."
Aff’s Unpopular- Removes Environmental Review
Anderson 05
~Scot W., Davis Graham %26 Stubbs LLP. "THE INDIAN TRIBAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENT AND ¶ SELF-DETERMINATION ACT OF 2005: ¶ OPPORTUNITIES FOR COOPERATIVE VENTURES" Rocky Mountain Mineral Law Institute ¶ Special Institute: Natural Resource Development in Indian Country. http://www.dgslaw.com/images/materials/670412.pdf-http://www.dgslaw.com/images/materials/670412.pdf~~

Environmental Review by TERA Tribes¶ Some environmental groups have expressed concern that the TERA
AND
, Congress added a tribal environmental review process ¶ to the TERA.¶ 38

CIR is key to high-skill immigration- solves innovation

LA Times 11/9/2012 (Other countries eagerly await U.S. immigration reform, http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/11/us-immigration-reform-eagerly-awaited-by-source-countries.html)
"Comprehensive immigration reform will see expansion of skilled labor visas," predicted B.
AND
relationships between countries and enhances links to the global economy, Lowell said.

Innovation key to solve warming

Council on Competitiveness, 2009, "Drive. Private Sector Demand for Sustainable Energy Solutions," http://www.compete.org/images/uploads/File/PDF%20Files/DRIVE._Private_Sector_Demand_for_Sustainable_Energy_Solutions,_Sept09_.pdf

The United States must invest, create, commercialize and market the new products and
AND
emissions and make any needed reductions more expensive and harder in the future.

Most recent IPCC report illustrates the GLOBAL scientific consensus that warming causes extinction

Science Daily 7 (IPCC Synthesis Report: Risks And Rewards Of Combating Climate Change, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/11/071119122043.htm)
The challenges and opportunities facing the world as a result of climate change have been
AND
of issues like poverty, unequal access to resources, conflict and disease.

1NC PIC

The United States federal government should end secretarial approval requirement for coal, crude oil, natural gas, nuclear power, solar power and wind power production on native peoples land.

a. "Peoples" is in every way superior to "tribe"— there is a correspondence between the description imposed on a group and its treatment

Churchill 94 (Ward, Prof. American Indian Studies, Indians Are Us?, p. 326-332)
Predictability, even with all this explained, there will be those who will still
AND
the chance for change depends upon the widening of such small spaces. 116

b. The Impact is cultural genocide

Churchill 94 (Ward, Prof. American Indian Studies, Indians Are Us?, p. 326-332)
For a considerable period, for reasons already mentioned, it was to the advantage
AND
" or "private citizens actions" which had occurance since 1775. 75

1NC Case

The plan doesn’t solve- their 1AC Royster evidence cites multiple other things that are prevented by the secretary of interior makes impacts inevitable 

Aff doesn’t solve self-determination

Porter 98
Porter, Director – Tribal Law and Government Center @ U Kansas, ’98¶ (Robert B., 31 U. Mich. J.L. Reform 899)

Nevertheless, no matter how much responsibility we assume for the redevelopment of our sovereignty
AND
continue to erode, and with it, the existence of our nations.

Solar’s too expensive even if we give away the panels

Zehner 12
Green illusions, ¶ Ozzie Zehner is the author of Green Illusions and a visiting
AND
was awarded with honors at both institutions. He lives in San Francisco.

Free Panels, Anyone? Among the ceos and chief scientists in the solar industry
AND
the Department of Energy quietly slid into its annual statistics without a peep.

Solar power emits worse GHGs than the CO2 it offsets

Zehner 12
Ozzie Zehner, June 04 2012, Ozzie Zehner is a  University of California Berkeley Visiting Scholar
 "Green Illusions: The Dirty Secrets Of Clean Energy," http://thegwpf.org/the-climate-record/5880-green-illusions-the-dirty-secrets-of-clean-energy-.html, d/a 8-2-12, ads)
Hexafluoroethane has a global warming potential that is 12,000 times higher than CO2
AND
technologies high in the gold-rimmed suburbs of Arizona and California.
Lack of semiconductors prevent solar power now.
Tao -08 (Meng Tao, Inorganic Photovoltaic Solar Cells: Silicon and Beyond, Winter 2008, The Electrochemical Society Interface, https://www.electrochem.org/dl/interface/wtr/wtr08/wtr08_p30-35.pdf)
The lack of a "perfect" semiconductor or semiconductors for terrestrial solar cells has
AND
. This underlines both the challenges and opportunities for future generations of researchers.

System inertia prevents shift to solar power.
Fuchs and Arentsen -02 (Doris A. Fuchs a, *, Maarten J. Arentsen b a Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Faculty of International Relations, Oettingenstr, Green electricity in the market place: the policy challenge, Energy Policy 30 (2002) 525–538, http://ac.els-cdn.com/S0301421501001203/1-s2.0-S0301421501001203-main.pdf?_tid=3524fd97cfe563df4b179d42552a5d56%26acdnat=1345504771_5cbb219d21f7f7f997f738542a489478)
To push renewables as alternatives for current matured generation capacity furthermore tends to neglect the
AND
a renewable base with high quality demands of the central station electricity system.

Waste from photovoltaic production is toxic and poses severe environmental hazards
Cha -08 (Ariana Eunjung Cha.Washington Post Foreign Service.  "Solar energy firms leave waste behind in china." Washington Post.  Sunday, March 9, 2008; A01.  Lexis)
This ritual has been going on almost every day for nine months, Li and other villagers said.
In China, a country buckling with the breakneck pace of its industrial growth,
AND
, a professor at the School of Material Sciences at Hebei Industrial University. 

Solar power plants require large amount of lands which will harm wildlife protection.
Brower -92 (Michael Brower, adapted from  Environmental Impacts of Renewable Energy Technologies,  Cool Energy: Renewable Solutions to Environmental Problems, 1992, pg. 220)
The large amount of land required for utility-scale solar power plants-approximately
AND
require cooling water, which may be costly or scarce in desert areas.

Toxic chemicals used in PV systems create environmental problems
Pimentel et. al 94 (David Pimentel, G. Rodrigues, T. Wang, R. Abrams, K. Goldberg, H. Staecker, E. Ma, L. Brueckner, L. Trovato, C. Chow, U. Govindarajulu, and S. Boerke, professor of ecology and agricultural science at Cornell University,  Renewable Energy: Economic and Environmental Issues, BioScience, Vol. 44, No. 8 (Sep., 1994), pp. 536-547)

The major environmental prob- lem associated with photovoltaic systems is the use of toxic
AND
makes the cells less expensive and environmentally safer than the heavy metal cells.

Solar hurts the environment—Waste

Cha 8 (Ariana Eunjung Cha.Washington Post Foreign Service.  "Solar energy firms leave waste behind in china." Washington Post.  Sunday, March 9, 2008; A01.  Lexis)
This ritual has been going on almost every day for nine months, Li and other villagers said.
In China, a country buckling with the breakneck pace of its industrial growth,
AND
, a professor at the School of Material Sciences at Hebei Industrial University. 

Environmental impacts of solar energy include release of toxic chemicals, fires, microclimate alteration, and shifts in plant and animal populations.
Pimentel et. al 94 (David Pimentel, G. Rodrigues, T. Wang, R. Abrams, K. Goldberg, H. Staecker, E. Ma, L. Brueckner, L. Trovato, C. Chow, U. Govindarajulu, and S. Boerke, professor of ecology and agricultural science at Cornell University,  Renewable Energy: Economic and Environmental Issues, BioScience, Vol. 44, No. 8 (Sep., 1994), pp. 536-547)
The potential environmental im- pacts of solar thermal receivers in- clude: the
AND
1100 ha is af- fected by a plant producing 1 billion kWh.

Self determination snowballs to the Balkans

National Journal 6-3-2K (Volume 32, Number 23, p. 1768)
In general, though, the State Department is just plain suspicious about Indians’ insistence
AND
are much more likely to take any such rights and run with them.

That causes global war and causes every terminal impact

Gottlieb, International Law %26 Diplomacy Professor at University of Chicago Law, 93 (Gidon, Nation Against State)
Self-determination unleashed and unchecked by balancing principles constitutes a menace to the society
AND
hundred independent territorial states cannot be the basis for global security and prosperity.

Balkan war goes nuclear

Chicago Daily Herald, May 9, 1999
We hear the grim rationale for sending in ground troops "to salvage the credibility
AND
point of world conflict resulting in nuclear war and incalculable self-destruction.

Self determination fragmentation impedes ability to address environmental problems – turns the case

Etzioni, First University Professor of The George Washington University, 92 (Amitai, "The Evils of Self-Determination," Foreign Policy, December 22, p. 21)
Theoretically, in a world of truly free trade, it does not matter where
AND
more cross-national community building and the difficulties posed by additional fragmentation.

Extinction comes first
Kateb, Professor of Politics at Princeton University, ’92 (George, "The Inner Ocean" p 111-112)
Schell’s work attempts to force on us an acknowledgment that sounds far-fetched and
AND
hence as morally allowed, perhaps enjoined, to take the appropriate preserving step

Our impacts turn yours-

Martin, Professor of Social Sciences in the School of Social Sciences, Media and Communication at the University of Wollongong, 1982
~Brian, Bulletin of Peace Proposals, Vol. 13, No. 2, 1982, pp. 149-159~
As mentioned earlier, one likely consequence of nuclear war, or even the threat
AND
double purpose, and also links peace movement activities with other social movements.

We solve root causes-Top down impacts come first

Joshua Goldstein, Int’l Rel Prof @ American U, 2001, War and Gender, p. 412
First, peace activists face a dilemma in thinking about causes of war and working
AND
on injustice as the main cause of war seems to be empirically inadequate. 

They portray Native Americans as the powerless victims of the oppression of the federal government – This is a new means of colonial pacification – It presupposes the inevitable defeat of Native Americans and undermines real moves towards solidarity – It allows us to overlook our own acts of discrimination and racism.

Root, Professor of Critical Theory at the University of Toronto 1997 (Deborah, Borrowed Power: Essays on Cultural Appropriation, Edited by Bruce Ziff)
Why would Karma and his countercultural predecessors identify with people who, time and time
AND
for him to imagine standing side by side with Native people as equals.

The inclusion of nuclear power in their plan turns the entire 1AC.  The nuclear power infrastructure is colonialist and renders native populations invisible and expendable

Kuletz, Lecturer in American Studies at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand and daughter of a weapons scientist who grew up in the Mojave Desert, 98 ~Valerie L., The Tainted Desert: Environmental and Social Ruin in the American West, pgs 5-6~
Most historians and government officials have ignored the presence of certain populations at risk in
AND
, for sacrifice, shrouded in secrecy, and plundered of its wealth.
One method for piercing the veil of secrecy cloaking these landscapes is to listen to
AND
lands and the displacement of North America’s indigenous population by their European conquerors.
The use of spacial coordinates (maps of designated areas) and historical and contemporary
AND
doesn’t simply disappear once the combatants have called off the dogs of war.

Discourse doesn’t come first –
Discourse Only Reflects Preexisting Conditions in an Objective World
John J. Mearsheimer, professor of political science at the University of Chicago. 1995 "The False Promise of International Institutions."  International Security, Vol. 19, No. 3., Winter 94/95.
Critical theory maintains that state behavior changes when discourse changes. But that argument leaves
AND
appear to be compatible with the theory they are challenging. (159)

Representations Ignore Material Realities That Are Key to Social Change – Means Either the Link is a Lie or the Alt Cant Overcome Other Peoples Perceptions
Jill Taft-Kaufman, Speech professor @ CMU, 1995, Southern Comm. Journal, Spring, v. 60, Iss. 3, "Other Ways"
The postmodern passwords of "polyvocality," "Otherness," and "difference," unsupported
AND
political agendas, institutions, agencies, and the budgets that fuel them. 

Debates about energy policy inculcate portable skills that lead to better policy – solves escalation of impact

Mitchell 10 (Gordon R, Associate Professor and Director of Graduate Studies in the Department of Communication at the University of Pittsburgh, where he also directs the William Pitt Debating Union, "SWITCH-SIDE DEBATING MEETS DEMAND-DRIVEN RHETORIC OF SCIENCE", http://www.pitt.edu/~~gordonm/JPubs/Mitchell2010.pdf)
Yet the picture grows more complex when one considers what is happening over at the
AND
all rhetoric" is the "principle of insufficient reason," says Hans Blumenberg
 
Unbridled affirmation outside the game space makes research impossible and destroys dialogue in debate
Hanghoj 8
http://static.sdu.dk/mediafiles/Files/Information_til/Studerende_ved_SDU/Din_uddannelse/phd_hum/afhandlinger/2009/ThorkilHanghoej.pdf
 Thorkild Hanghøj, Copenhagen, 2008
 Since this PhD project began in 2004, the present author has been affiliated with DREAM (Danish
Research Centre on Education and Advanced Media Materials), which is located at the Institute of
Literature, Media and Cultural Studies at the University of Southern Denmark. Research visits have
taken place at the Centre for Learning, Knowledge, and Interactive Technologies (L-KIT), the
Institute of Education at the University of Bristol and the institute formerly known as Learning Lab
Denmark at the School of Education, University of Aarhus, where I currently work as an assistant
professor. 

Debate games are often based on pre-designed scenarios that include descriptions of issues
AND
dialogue as an end in itself" (Wegerif, 2006: 61). 

Linking the ballot to a should question in combination with USFG simulation teaches the skills to organize pragmatic consequences and philosophical values into a course of action
Hanghoj 8
http://static.sdu.dk/mediafiles/Files/Information_til/Studerende_ved_SDU/Din_uddannelse/phd_hum/afhandlinger/2009/ThorkilHanghoej.pdf
 Thorkild Hanghøj, Copenhagen, 2008
 Since this PhD project began in 2004, the present author has been affiliated with DREAM (Danish
Research Centre on Education and Advanced Media Materials), which is located at the Institute of
Literature, Media and Cultural Studies at the University of Southern Denmark. Research visits have
taken place at the Centre for Learning, Knowledge, and Interactive Technologies (L-KIT), the
Institute of Education at the University of Bristol and the institute formerly known as Learning Lab
Denmark at the School of Education, University of Aarhus, where I currently work as an assistant
professor. 

 Joas’ re-interpretation of Dewey’s pragmatism as a "theory of situated creativity
AND
the contingent outcomes and domain-specific processes of problem-based scenarios.  

CP

2NC

CP Solves

Federal liability is the only way to guarantee checks on exploitative corporate power

Reese 5 (April, "ENERGY POLICY: New federal law encourages tapping of Indian resources," Lexis)

Supporters of the measure, which was proposed by members of the Council of Energy
AND
Southwest reporter April Reese is based in Santa Fe, N.M.

2nc – Trust Relationship Good

The trust relationship shouldn’t be confused with colonialism – it is necessary to prevent exploitation of Native America.

Clinton, ’93 (Former Iowa Law Prof, 46 Ark. L. Rev. 77)

Given the chameleon-like nature of and complex roles played by the federal trusteeship
AND
Indian affairs, should escape the scalpel of decolonization of federal Indian law.

2nc Colonialism Ext

If a small distinction in tribal sovereignty dooms the CP it dooms the aff too- they leave multiple points of federal control within TERA in place

Royster 1AC Author 8, Co-Director – Native American Law Center @ University of Tulsa,
(Judith V., 12 Lewis %26 Clark L. Rev. 1065)

The first concern is the limitation on the resources to which ITEDSA applies. Enacted
AND
ensure that tribes could address all their mineral resources in the same manner.

A-t CP Kills Soverignty
The counterplan provides the perfect middle-ground between trust doctrine and tribal sovereignty- Kronk agrees
Kronk 1AC Author 12—Assistant Professor, Texas Tech University School of Law (Elizabeth, Tribal Energy Resource Agreements: The Unintended "Great Mischief for Indian Energy Development" and the Resulting Need for Reform, 29 Pace Envtl. L. Rev. 811)
*Above suggestion = AFF*
Should the above suggestion prove distasteful, a second recommendation for reforming the existing TERA
AND
, this second proposal would also constitute an improvement over the status quo.

A federal trust doctrine based on protecting Native resources prevents Native extinction.

Wood, ’94 (Oregon Assistant Law Professor, 1994 Utah L. Rev. 1471)

Since first entering into treaties with the United States, native nations have waged a
AND
majority society to refrain from taking actions injurious to native lands and resources.

The Disad Accesses their systemic Impact Claims

The disad outweighs- Global warming is the ultimate systemic impact

WARMING SERVES AS AN ACT OF ENVIRONMENTAL RACISM – DISPROPORTIONATELY AFFECTS NATIVE AMERICANS.

SMITH 4
~Joel, Stratus Consulting, "A synthesis of potential climate change impacts on the US’ Pew Center, April — online~
Even within regions that may have net economic benefits, individual communities and people could
AND
to cope, and are not able to easily move to new locations. 

Climate change causes scarcity conflict
SCHWARTZ AND RANDALL ’3
(Peter, and Doug, pentagon report on climate change, "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security," October, pg. Online @ http://www.ems.org/climate/pentagon_climatechange.pdf-http://www.ems.org/climate/pentagon_climatechange.pdf )
As famine, disease, and weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt
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drops suddenly, civilization is faced with new challenges that today seem unimaginable.  

2NC Link

Focus Link- The plan prevents Obama from focusing on immigration

O’Brien 12, 12/30/2012 (Michael, Immigration and gun violence top president’s post-fiscal cliff agenda, NBC News, p. http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/12/30/16239613-immigration-and-gun-violence-top-presidents-post-fiscal-cliff-agenda?lite)
The president discussed efforts to address gun violence and immigration with particular urgency on Sunday
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or any of the other legislative battles he might encounter along the way.

They Say you should evaluate the impact with the highest probability

Warming is the highest probability 1% risk of warming means you vote AFF

Strom 7 Professor of Emeritus Planetary Sciences at U. Arizona (Robert, Former Director of Space Imagery Center of NASA, "Hot House: Global Climate Change and the Human Condition," SpringerLink, pg. 246, Mike)
Keep in mind that the current consequences of global warming discussed in previous chapters are
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more clearly define what awaits us. The time for action is now.

Prefer long-term realistic impacts—obsession with short-term risks is counter-productive

Hueston 8 (member of the Business Council of Australia’s Sustainable Growth Taskforce  http://www.climateark.org/shared/reader/welcome.aspx?linkid=105454)
Now, the challenge is to translate our evolution in principles into practical actions,
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until we acknowledge that the broad principles in the Green Paper are sound.

They say its empically denied- no impact defense and empirically proven- scientific consensus based on ice core data and images of Greenland melting means there is no link to their generic catastrophic impacts bad 

Linear predictions are good in the short term

Levy, University of Massachusetts Chair of Management, 04
(David, November 19, 2004, "Applications and Limitations of Complexity Theory in Organization Theory and Strategy", http://www.faculty.umb.edu/david_levy/complex00.pdf)
Despite its attractions, the application of complexity theory to the social sciences is ¶
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chaotic and that within ¶ certain parameters, linear approximations are good enough.

Magnitude Outweighs Probability

Blyth and Taleb, NYU’s Polytech Institute Risk Engineering professor, 11
(Mark, Brown University International Political Economy professor, and Nassim Nicholas, "The Black Swan of Cairo," Foreign Affairs, May/June 2011, 90(3))
Complex systems that have artificially suppressed volatility tend to become extremely fragile, while at
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mergitur (it fluctuates but does not sink) goes the Latin saying.

Uniquness

U- 2AC ABC evidence doesn’t assume new presidency where it is obamas priority-

1NC CIR will pass- labor and business agreement provides momentum and bipart agreements- PC key to maintain the deal- vote in a few weeks

Thursday’s business-labor agreement causes bipartisan co-op- will pass

LA Times 2/21/2013 (Business, labor leaders reach compromise on immigration reform, http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-business-labor-immigration-reform-20130221,0,6788177.story)
Business and labor leaders have hammered out the outline of a compromise on one of
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the same and to look past the partisan issues and get things done."

Lobbies and Republican support mean it will pass

ABC News 2/19/2013 (Tech Sector Leads the Lobbying Charge for Immigration Reform, http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/tech-sector-leads-lobbying-charge-immigration-reform/story?id=18536796)
Since the last significant immigration reform effort in 2007, no industry has been more
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"may be the special formula that gets us across the finish line."

The other warrant in their evidence is democratic disunity

but

They’re on board now and PC sways them

Kromm 2/21/2013 (Chris, Executive Director of the non-profit Institute for Southern Studies, Will Southern Democrats derail immigration reform?, http://www.southernstudies.org/2013/02/will-southern-democrats-derail-immigration-reform.html)
Ever since President Obama announced his intention to fight — again — for broad-
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I do believe that comprehensive immigration reform will take place in this Congress.

Case

We solve root causes-Top down impacts come first

Joshua Goldstein, Int’l Rel Prof @ American U, 2001, War and Gender, p. 412
First, peace activists face a dilemma in thinking about causes of war and working
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on injustice as the main cause of war seems to be empirically inadequate. 

Long term impacts outweigh systemic ones – we have a responsibility to future generations
Smart, Professor of Philosophy at the Research School of Social Sciences, and Williams, Professor of Philosophy at the University of Cambridge, ’73 (JJC and Bernard, "Utilitarianism: For and Against" p 62-63)
"But", the deontologist may still object, "it is my doctrine which
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existing present popullation on a strange island before using it for bomb tests?

Impacts are predictable – linear scenario analysts have empirical success

Dekker, Centre for Ethics, Law, Justice and Governance, Griffith University Professor, 11
(Sidney, February 21, 2011, "The complexity of failure: Implications of complexity theory for safety investigations", Safety Science Volume 49, Issue 6, July 2011, Pages 939–945)
In the Newtonian vision of the world, everything that happens has a definitive,
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credibility of the government to run an investigation" (Dekker, 2011).¶ 

Reliance on predictions from experts is necessary – the aff prevents any genuine discussion about politics an prevents and epistemological understanding of the world

Turner, Graduate Research Professor and Chair of the Department of Philosophy at the University of South Florida, ’1 (Stephen, February "What is the Problem with Experts?" Social Studies of Science, Vol 31 Issue 1, p 123-149, Sage Publications)
The answer to Fish is to treat the liberal principle of neutrality not as an
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theory only if this banal process is beyond the capacity of ordinary people.

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
NDT Round 4 Topicality
Managing government military use is distinct from a “financial incentive”
Gillingham, Newell and Palmer 2006 (Kenneth, Richard and Karen, Resources for the Future, Stanford University, Energy Efficiency Policies: A Retrospective Examination, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Vol. 31: 161-192, DOI: 10.1146/annurev.energy.31.020105.100157)
In this descriptive survey of demand-side energy efficiency policies, we focus on
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professional codes, and transportation polices (including Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards).

Even if purchase agreements were topical, they don’t increase- there’s nobody to conclude an agreement with
King 2011 (Marcus King, Ph.D., Center for Naval Analyses Project Director and Research Analyst for the Environment and Energy TeamLaVar Huntzinger, Thoi Nguyen, March 2011, Feasibility of Nuclear Power on U.S.Military Installations, www.cna.org/sites/default/files/research/Nuclear Power on Military Installations D0023932 A5.pdf)
Safety and reliability performance¶ The NRC is responsible for regulation of the nuclear industry
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demonstration before they are¶ ready to be commercialized in the United States.
Reasons to vote-
Predictability- there are infinite theoretical technologies which they could just “promise to buy”- allows affs that say the tech never materializes to spike all our DAs and read signal advantages about “supporting research” into cold fusion or whatever
Ground- all of our DAs like oil, natural gas or even politics are premised on changing commercial energy- our interp guarantees them all the same tech sectors but forces them to prove viability which gives us solvency takeouts- reaches the best middle ground between including new energies and having serious debates about them

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
NDT Round 4 Review CP
Text – The President of the United States should establish an interagency commission that should publish a energy review based on the results of bipartisan congressional consultation. The interagency commission’s review should substantially increase power purchase agreements for energy production in the United States from light water small modular reactors as a part of its first biennial energy review.
Competes---the CP’s policy statement is not legally binding---it doesn’t enact the plan, it simply recommends its mandates
Charles H. Koch 5, the Dudley W. Woodbridge Professor of Law, William and Mary School of Law, Spring 2005, “Policymaking by the Administrative Judiciary,” Alabama Law Review, 56 Ala. L. Rev. 693, p. lexis n110 E.g., Consol Edison Co of New York v. FERC, 315 F.3d 316, 323 (D.C. Cir 2003)
"Policy statements" differ from substantive rules that carry the "force of law
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Administrative Open Mind, 41 DUKE L J 1497, 1503 (1992).
And, it solves the entirety of the case and avoids politics
Rothkopf, Prof @ Columbia and Georgetown, ‘11 David Rothkopf October 26, 2011 CEO and Editor-at-Large of Foreign Policy, he also taught international affairs and national security studies at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs and Georgetown's School of Foreign Service. The time for a White House-led national energy policy is right now http://rothkopf.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/26/ the_time_for_a_white_house_led_national _energy_policy_is_right_now
It is currently conventional wisdom in Washington that the president will have a difficult time
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address a long overdue need within the U.S. policy apparatus.

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
NDT Round 4 Politics
Will pass- bill comes out in April- new business-labor agreement gets everyone on board but it’s not final
LA Times 3/30/2013 (Labor and business leaders clear hurdle in immigration talks, http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-illegal-immigration-workers-20130329,0,1275171.story)
Labor and business leaders have agreed to a plan for setting wages for low-
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the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said in a statement.
Plan costs capital --- it’s massively unpopular.
Fairley 10 Peter, IEEE Spectrum, May, "Downsizing Nuclear Power Plants,” spectrum.ieee.org/energy/nuclear/downsizing-nuclear-power-plants/0
However, there are political objections to SMRs. Precisely because they are more affordable
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today’s reactors. But, politically at least, they’re just as nuclear.
CIR is key to high-skill immigration
LA Times 11/9/2012 (Other countries eagerly await U.S. immigration reform, http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/11/us-immigration-reform-eagerly-awaited-by-source-countries.html)
"Comprehensive immigration reform will see expansion of skilled labor visas," predicted B.
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relationships between countries and enhances links to the global economy, Lowell said.

That’s key to India’s economy- US trade ties and increased remittance flows build economic institutions
Gupta and Hegde 2009 (Rupayan and S. Aaron, Assistant Professor of Economics at the Department of Economics, The Gabelli School of Business, Roger Williams University; Assistant Professor of Economics at the Department of Economics, California State University, Bakersfield, An Exploratory Study of Financial Remittances Among Non-Resident Indians in the United States, http://www.springerlink.com/content/npk346515g13127t/fulltext.html)
Remittances sent back home by migrants are an important component of the development finance of
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established non-resident Indians6 (NRIs) working in the United States.

Indian econ accesses multiple scenarios for extinction – nuclear winter with Pakistan, nuclear war with China, and Naxalite Insurgency
Robinson ‘10
Dr. David Robinson, History lecturer at Edith Cowan University in Perth, Western Australia and published author that  holds a PhD in History, and is mid-way through a Master of International Relations degree. “The Regional and Global Implications of India’s Rise as a Great Power.” – June 17th, 2010 – made available at http://lfort.wordpress.com/2010/06/17/indias-rise-as-a-great-power/#_ftn21

Over the last decade there has been an increasing focus on India’s economic and military
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, and thus may falsely ‘retaliate’ against the other country.70

1nr

1NR Politics

Immigration reform expands skilled labor --- spurs relations and economic growth in  India.
Los Angeles Times, 11/9/2012 (Other countries eagerly await U.S. immigration reform, p. http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/11/us-immigration-reform-eagerly-awaited-by-source-countries.html)
"Comprehensive immigration reform will see expansion of skilled labor visas," predicted B.
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see the immigration opportunity as a bigger plus than not," he said.

U
New deal means will pass, continued momentum key
NYT 3/29/2013 (Guest Workers Are at Crux of Groups’ Deal on Immigration, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/30/us/politics/guest-worker-program-low-skilled-immigrants.html?_r=0)
 The nation’s top business and labor groups were near agreement Friday on a guest
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the guest worker issue so as not to derail the overall immigration overhaul.

Immigration will pass – momentum, bipartisan consensus, close to a vote, and political capital investment
Latinos Post 3-28 (“Immigration Reform 2013 News: Obama Says He Expects Congress to Have Immigration Bill Ready By April “, http://www.latinospost.com/articles/15446/20130328/immigration-reform-2013-news-obama-expects-congress-bill-ready-april.htm)
Continuing his recent push to have Washington pass comprehensive immigration reform into law, President
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to make immigration overhaul a priority after years of delays on Capitol Hill.
CIR Will pass – Election, Obama’s capital, GOP compromise, public, and voting statistics
CT Post 3-28 (“Immigration reform gaining support in Congress”, http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Immigration-reform-gaining-support-in-Congress-4393187.php)
WASHINGTON -- A Republican Party in desperate search for relevance to Latino voters. An
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predict the Senate will muster the votes necessary to pass a reform bill.

AT: Guns
Obama’s effectively picking his battles – Immigration he recognizes as the most practical
Chicago Tribune, March 28th 2013, Obama makes impassioned plea for gun control legislation, ¶ http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/sns-obama-makes-impassioned-plea-for-gun-control-legislation-20130328,0,1291257.story
Biden seemed to acknowledged the challenge when he said on a conference call on Wednesday
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Univision, a Spanish-language network, in an interview on Wednesday.

Not spending Political Capital – only rallying public support
Rucker, March 23¶ Philip Rucker, Washington Post, “Obama to Congress: Finish the job on gun control” 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/03/23/obama-to-congress-join-me-in-finishing-the-job/
Before departing on his trip to Israel and Jordan, Obama spoke with lawmakers from both parties about the gun measures under consideration, according to a White House official. The president plans to continue pressuring Congress on the issue, including additional travel outside of Washington designed to mobilize public support, said the official, who spoke only on the condition of anonymity.
AT Mcarthy
Obama is heavily investing political capital into Immigration – functional campaigning
New American 3-28 (“Obama Predicts Immigration Bill Passage by Summer”, http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/immigration/item/14939-obama-predicts-immigration-bill-passage-by-summer)
During a swearing-in ceremony for 28 new citizens (including 13 members of
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“path to citizenship” to the latter also “makes us stronger.” 

Link Debate
SMR subsidies are uniquely unpopular now
Greenwire 12 http://www.eenews.net/public/Greenwire/2012/09/24/3 “DOE Funding for Small Reactors Languishes as Parties Clash on Debt”
Likewise, top energy officials in the Obama administration have hailed the promise of the
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can't stand here and tell you that I know how to do that."
SMR debates are polarizing
Carper and Schmid 11 Ross Carper (rosscarper@gmail.com), a writer based in Washington state, is the founding editor of the creative nonfiction project BeyondtheBracelet.com. Sonja Schmid (sschmid@vt.edu) is an assistant professor in Science and Technology Studies at Virginia Tech. “The Little Reactor That Could?” Issues in Science and Technology, http://www.issues.org/27.4/carper.html
Historically, nuclear energy has been entangled in one of the most polarizing debates in
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be off limits, just because information about them has traditionally been classified.
SMR’s incredibly unpopular—popular culture frames SMRs as dangerous
Deal-Blackwell 7/23 (Deborah, works with Los Alamos, founder of Hyperion Power Generation, ““Dark Knight Rises” Batman movie does infant SMR industry no favors” http://ixpower.com/tag/small-modular-reactors/)
But, I couldn’t believe it …Holy Plot Twist Batman! I cringed when
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as at the end of every Batman movie, the dark knight rises.¶
The public will backlash to SMR—prefer our ev, compares perceptions of supporters and opponents of SMRs
Baker 6-22-12 (Matthew, “Do Small Modular Reactors Present a Serious Option for the Military’s Energy Needs?” http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2012/do-small-modular-reactors-present-a-serious-option-for-the-militarys-energy-needs/)
Congressman Bartlett also pointed out that current military bases such as Guam – which is fueled by the transport of diesel – are extremely vulnerable should the energy transport system be disrupted. Fuel supplies are even more unstable in Afghanistan, where one out of every twenty-four convoys results in a casualty. According to Congressman Bartlett, SMRs could make such bases energy self-sufficient.
Unfortunately all the hype surrounding SMRs seems to have made the proponents of SMR technology
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stone of the military’s energy needs the public needs to be on board.

SMRs unpopular – the public doesn’t differentiate the risk based on size
Locatelli and Mancini 10 (Giorgio and Mauro, Politecnico di Milano, Dept. Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, “The role of the reactor size for an investment in the nuclear sector: An evaluation¶ of not-financial parameters”, Progress in Nuclear Energy 53, 2011)
This is because, in the public’s mind, a system with small probability of
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. Considering near-term technologies, overall population’s attitude is not differential.

AT: DOD Shields
Obama is the Commander in Chief, so DoD actions LIKE THE PLAN are intrinsically blamed on him
DoD action links—Causes congressional backlash
Erwin, 12 Sandra I., National Defense “Amid Political Backlash, Pentagon Pushes Forward With Green Energy,” April, http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/archive/2012 /April/Pages/AmidPoliticalBacklash,PentagonPushesForwardWithGreenEnergy.aspx, ALB
Maybe the problem with the Defense Department’s renewable energy efforts is that they are called
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griped. Mabus was hit by similar unfriendly barbs from other HASC members.
Hagel’s nomination ensures any DOD action links to politics.
Gur 2/22/2013 (HAVIV RETTIG GUR, Hagel’s damaged brand, http://www.timesofisrael.com/hagels-damaged-brand/)
By opposing Hagel’s nomination so stridently, his opponents have already forced the former senator
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the budget and size of the department he has been asked to run.

AT: Link Turn
Only a risk of the link – public massively opposed to nuclear expansion and there’s no constituency to lobby for the plan.
CSI 12. Civil Society Institue, “SURVEY: CONGRESS, WHITE HOUSE FOCUS ON FOSSIL FUELS, NUCLEAR POWER IS OUT OF TOUCH WITH VIEWS OF MAINSTREAM AMERICA” November 3 -- http://www.civilsocietyinstitute.org/media/110311release.cfm
If Congress thinks it has found a winning issue in trashing wind and solar power
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are actually quite striking findings in the context of the 2012 election campaign."¶ 

GOP Base being united in favor of CIR now – we control uniqueness
LA Times 3-28 (“GOP primary voters not opposed to immigration reform”, http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-gop-primary-voters-immigration-reform-20130328,0,3595182.story)
According to a Republican research group, recent discussions with Republican voters in Iowa and
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borders, while barring undocumented immigrants from receiving welfare or other government benefits.

AT: PC Kills
AT Political Capital bad
Obama push inevitable, only question is whether he has the influence to make it effective- ongoing negotiations prove it’s working now- any ideologically negative reactions to “anything Obama related” is assumed by our ev
Washington Post 3/15/2013 (House and Senate groups working on immigration, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-03-15/politics/37745233_1_legal-immigration-house-group-senate-works)
Two groups of bipartisan lawmakers in the House and the Senate are racing to put
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House, long seen as the tougher political challenge for any immigration proposal.
Here’s conclusive ev he’s already involved, and having a positive impact
Reuters 3/14/2013 (Senators aim to reach bipartisan immigration deal next week, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/14/us-usa-congress-immigration-idUSBRE92D1B120130314)
The eight senators - four Democrats and four Republicans - announced a "framework for
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that Obama could build support for that part of the pending immigration bill.
PC is effective- builds GOP support
Washington Post 3/23/2013 (White House’s outreach is yielding modest benefits, lawmakers say, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/white-houses-outreach-is-yielding-modest-benefits-lawmakers-say/2013/03/23/676dad42-924c-11e2-bdea-e32ad90da239_story.html)
Before departing for Israel last Tuesday, for example, Obama called Republican Sens.
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occasion. “I sort of see the CR as a confidence builder.”

Skilled worker shortage blocks solvency-
Battaglia 3/23/2013 (Sarah, one of the in-house Copywriters and the Social Media Specialist for Energy Curtailment Specialists since 2011, BA in Marketing from SUNY-Buffalo, writer for the Energy Collective, Energy Industry Faced with a Possible Workforce Shortage, http://theenergycollective.com/sbattaglia/201836/energy-industry-faced-possible-workforce-shortage)
The energy industry may be booming, but the amount of skilled workers seems to
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these projects, companies can only hope they don’t run out of talent.

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
NDT Round 4 Madagascar
1nc
No oil sands development in Madagascar now- cost is the main variable
BBC 10/25/2012 (How will oil affect Madagascar's environmental riches?, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20075866)
Amid the hills of western Madagascar, villagers have long been aware of a thick
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impoverished country has raised a mix of expectations and concerns among Malagasy people.
SMRs enable cost-efficient tar sands extraction
Fin 2011 (Al, runs a number of very successful blogs that cover, energy, technology, news and politics, Oil Shale Mining and Research Picking Up Steam, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Shale-Mining-And-Research-Picking-Up-Steam.html)
In the US, companies can find it difficult to get permits for even the
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the energy starvationists can ever be removed from positions of power and influence.
SMRs would be used for Madagascar projects- especially energy intensive
The Guardian 2010 (Madagascar Oil brings tar sands project to London market, http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/nov/29/oil-oilandgascompanies)
Environmental regulations are also unlikely to be onerous in an island famed for its biodiversity
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recovered than in Alberta, so this would reduce the comparative energy intensity.
Tar sands development in Madagascar causes environmental destruction and deforestation in a key carbon sink- ensures catastrophic warming
Rakotondralambo 2011 (Holly, of Alliance Voahary Gasy, a coalition of 28 Malagasy environmental and human rights organisations, The threat to Madagascar from tar sands; a first hand account, Interview with Liz Murray of the World Development Movement, http://www.wdm.org.uk/blog/threat-madagascar-tar-sands-first-hand-account)
Liz: what are the specific concerns about tar sands mining?¶ Holly: There
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fuel, will completely undermine and waste these efforts to reduce climate change.
Warming guarantees multiple positive feedbacks triggering extinction, adaptation cannot solve
Tickell ‘8 (Oliver, Climate Researcher, “On a Planet 4C Hotter, All We Can Prepare for is Extinction,” The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)
We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming, Bob Watson told
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warming caused by human emissions could propel us towards a similar hothouse Earth.
Independently, Madagascar’s environment is key to botanical diversity
Halpern 2002 (Georges M. Halpern is a Fellow of the Royal Society of
AND
The Healing Trail: Essential Oils of Madagascar – page 14-15)
Tectonic forces split Pangaea into two continents, Laurasia and Gondwanaland, at the end
AND
have dramatically improved patients’ chances of recovering from childhood leukemia and Hodgkin’s Disease.  

Botanical diversity checks extinction- Our impact isn’t contagious disease, but that ailments and synthetic adjustments will kill much of humanity and effect immune systems.
Duke 1990 (PhD – Dr. James A. Duke is a former Botanist and ethnobotanist with the US Department of Agriculture, and he now teaches at Tai Sophia. He is a published author of many books. This is an excerpt from: Promising phytomedicinals. p. 491-498. In: J. Janick and J.E. Simon (eds.), Advances in new crops.  – available via: http://www.hort.purdue.edu/newcrop/proceedings1990/v1-491.html)
Two hundred and fifty years ago, there were few or no synthetic medicines.
AND
are even more threatened than the better studied temperate floras.    
(Note: This was edited for gendered language)

Impacts
Tar sands destroy Madagascar environment
Murray 2011 (Liz, Head of Scottish campaigns, World Development Movement, Threat to Madagascar, The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/07/madagascar-biodiversity-environment-mining-tar-sands)
WWF's important study of the many new species found in Madagascar in the past 10
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on fossil fuels and say no to financing the mining of tar sands.
Development would be on key environmental reserves
Wykes and Heywood 2010 (Sarah and Steven, of Friends of the Earth Europe, Tar sands: ¶ Fuelling the climate crisis, undermining EU energy¶ security and damaging development objectives, http://www.foei.org/en/resources/publications/pdfs/2010/tar-sands-fuelling-the-climate-crisis-undermining-eu-energy-security-and-damaging-development-objectives)
Environmental and social issues¶ On the western edge of the Tsimiroro field is the
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to two-thirds of its species¶ being endemic to the country.

Yes Warming
Statistical Analysis Prove Climate Denialism Has Zero Scientific Backing in Peer Reviewed Journals – Its All Spin and Media Manipulation
Jim Powell is a science author. He has been a college and museum president and was a member of the National Science Board for 12 years, appointed first by President Reagan and then by President George H. W. Bush. 11/15 2012 Why Climate Deniers Have No Scientific Credibility - In One Pie Chart http://www.desmogblog.com/2012/11/15/why-climate-deniers-have-no-credibility-science-one-pie-chart
Polls show that many members of the public believe that scientists substantially disagree about human
AND
cause. These are known facts about which virtually all publishing scientists agree.

Madagascar: Key Solve Disease
Avoiding Madagascar defo is key to medical breakthroughs
Thomas ‘3 (Karim Thomas – Princeton graduate and founder of SPARKS, an organization that has helped establish a new school in the Afghan capital of Kabul and strives to promote youth involvement in community service worldwide. Preserving Biodiversity in Forest Ecosystems – May 2nd -- http://www.princeton.edu/~mauzeral/wws402f_s03/JP.Karim.Thomas.pdf )
While some proponents of action would advance an argument based on morality (and the
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we destroying, and with them, our chance for a better life? 

Madagascar key -- Periwinkle proves  
Elrod 2008 (Dr. Sharon Shaw Elrod – formerly of the University of Nebraska Medical Center – Biomes -- http://www.biomesonline.com/monographs/medicine.html)
The loss of these species could have a catastrophic effect on human life. For
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known, survival rates could still be at 10% for this illness.

Link Debate
SMRs enable more oil
Ingersoll 2009 (DT, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Nuclear Technology Programs Office, Deliberately small reactors and the second nuclear era, Progress in Nuclear Energy, Volume 51, Issues 4–5, May–July 2009, Pages 589–603, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pnucene.2009.01.003)
6. DSR applications¶ It is likely that large nuclear plants will continue to
AND
these applications than will large plants because of the many advantages discussed earlier.
Market forces ensure- SMR producers will gear their designs toward non-electric purposes
Ingersoll 2009 (DT, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Nuclear Technology Programs Office, Deliberately small reactors and the second nuclear era, Progress in Nuclear Energy, Volume 51, Issues 4–5, May–July 2009, Pages 589–603, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pnucene.2009.01.003)
8. Summary
Smaller sized nuclear reactors had a major role in the initial development of the commercial
AND
and shorter construction time contribute to reduced investment risk and cash outlay profiles.
Nuclear = more oil sands
Stewart 2012 (John, startlingly few appearances on The Daily Show, director of policy and¶ research with the Canadian Nuclear Association, NUCLEAR IN THE OIL SANDS:¶ BUILDING ON CANADA’S¶ STRENGTHS, http://www.wincanada.org/uploads/filemanager/pdf/CNA/Stewart_Nuclear_Oil_Sands_Feb_2012.pdf)
If nuclear energy could economically be applied to bitumen extraction from western¶ Canada’s oil
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power with clean air, knowledge¶ jobs and affordable, reliable energy.
UQ Debate
Oil sands are too expensive to extract now
Barr 11/2/2012 (Greg, Managing Editor of the Houston Business Journal, Canadian oil sands production faces labor shortage, spiraling costs, http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2012/11/02/canadian-oil-sands-production-faces.html)
Labor shortages and escalating production costs could stifle production in Canada's oil sands, potentially
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based Nexen in a deal valued at about $15.2 billion.
No oil sands now because of extraction costs
Gasser 2012 (Kurt, J.D. candidate 2012, S.J. Quinney College of Law, University of Utah, The TransCanada Keystone XL Pipeline: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Debate, 32 Utah Envtl. L. Rev. 489, lexis)
And finally, some argue the current methods of extracting oil from the tar sands
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. would continue to pay higher prices per barrel simply to maintain stability.

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
NDT Round 4 Case
Solvency

1. Framing Argument – The development time means no short-term impact – if we win there is any gap between the plan and deployment of SMRs our offense comes first
   2. Their author concludes it takes a decade just for SMR approval
   Andres and Breetz 1AC Article ‘11 (Richard B., Professor of national Security
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   lib/pdf/StrForum/SF-262.pdf, Mike)
   International Reactor Innovative and Secure (IRIS) model, which mostly uses mature LWR
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   a decade or more before they get design approval from the NRC.19
   Uranium will run out before 2050 if they revive nuclear- it’s not sustainable
   Dittmar 2012 (Michael, Institute of Particle Physics, ETH Zurich, Nuclear energy: Status and future limitations, Energy, Volume 37, Issue 1, January 2012, Pages 35–40, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2011.05.040)
   4. Why we should not count on miracles from future fission and fusion reactors
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   scenario, the known resources would be terminated during the next 55 years.

Give zero cred to any solvency evidence- SMRs are made-up hypotheticals
Dittmar 2012 (Michael, Institute of Particle Physics, ETH Zurich, Nuclear energy: Status and future limitations, Energy, Volume 37, Issue 1, January 2012, Pages 35–40, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2011.05.040)
4.3. Thorium based fission reactors and other new reactors¶ Not much
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seems to be supported by the latest news about such claims 15.
SMRs suck- they link harder to every single one of our more generic-sounding nuclear takeouts
Nuclear Power Daily, citing Makhijani, engineering PhD from Berkeley, 2010 ('Small Modular Reactors' No Panacea For What Ails Nuclear Power, citing Arjun Makhijani, http://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/Small_Modular_Reactors_No_Panacea_For_What_Ails_Nuclear_Power_999.html)
The same industry that promised that nuclear power would be "too cheap to meter
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, mired in unresolved safety issues, and a threat to public health.

Plan can’t cause investment or construction- nobody believes it’s real- their ev is all from designers promoting their projects
ENR 2012 (Engineering News-Record, Small Modular Reactors Are Emerging As Next Wave in Sector Construction, 2/27, lexis)
With federal approval to build the first U.S. nuclear reactors in 30
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. «In addition, is it economic? It's too conceptual now.»

Their ev exaggerates nuclear viability for financial reasons- default neg
Dittmar 2012 (Michael, Institute of Particle Physics, ETH Zurich, Nuclear energy: Status and future limitations, Energy, Volume 37, Issue 1, January 2012, Pages 35–40, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2011.05.040)
5. Can we understand nuclear energy as part of the energy problem before potential
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the corresponding reports like in the 2003 and 2009 MIT studies 6.

Expanding the domestic industry leads to global exports of conventional nuclear power- makes the whole company more profitable, not just its activities with their reactors
Fuhrmann 2012 (Matthew, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Texas AandM University, previously held research fellowships at Harvard and CFR, Splitting Atoms: Why Do Countries Build Nuclear Power Plants?, International Interactions: Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations, Volume 38, Issue 1, 2012, DOI:10.1080/03050629.2012.640209)
Despite the challenges associated with higher front-end costs, firms try to maximize
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are likely to have greater success in encouraging the use of nuclear power.
Developing nuclear power causes war- preemption incentives and targets for terrorists
Fuhrmann 2012 (Matthew, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Texas AandM University, previously held research fellowships at Harvard and CFR, Splitting Atoms: Why Do Countries Build Nuclear Power Plants?, International Interactions: Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations, Volume 38, Issue 1, 2012, DOI:10.1080/03050629.2012.640209)
There may also be a more direct relationship between nuclear energy programs and violent conflict
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attacks against nuclear facilities are more deadly in the future (Reiter 2011).

2NC

Their ev exaggerates nuclear viability for financial reasons- default neg
Dittmar 2012 (Michael, Institute of Particle Physics, ETH Zurich, Nuclear energy: Status and future limitations, Energy, Volume 37, Issue 1, January 2012, Pages 35–40, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2011.05.040)
5. Can we understand nuclear energy as part of the energy problem before potential
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the corresponding reports like in the 2003 and 2009 MIT studies 6.

Even if they could, they won’t- doesn’t have the expertise, they would have no idea what they were doing- they take minimum 10 years with existing designs, of which there are zero for SMRs
King 2011 (Marcus King, Ph.D., Center for Naval Analyses Project Director and Research Analyst for the Environment and Energy TeamLaVar Huntzinger, Thoi Nguyen, March 2011, Feasibility of Nuclear Power on U.S.Military Installations, www.cna.org/sites/default/files/research/Nuclear Power on Military Installations D0023932 A5.pdf)
Certification and licensing issues¶ The most basic licensing issue relates to whether NRC will
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time required for¶ licensing and construction to approximately 6 years 45.

Expanding the domestic industry leads to global exports of conventional nuclear power- makes the whole company more profitable, not just its activities with their reactors
Fuhrmann 2012 (Matthew, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Texas AandM University, previously held research fellowships at Harvard and CFR, Splitting Atoms: Why Do Countries Build Nuclear Power Plants?, International Interactions: Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations, Volume 38, Issue 1, 2012, DOI:10.1080/03050629.2012.640209)
Despite the challenges associated with higher front-end costs, firms try to maximize
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are likely to have greater success in encouraging the use of nuclear power.
Developing nuclear power causes war- preemption incentives and targets for terrorists
Fuhrmann 2012 (Matthew, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Texas AandM University, previously held research fellowships at Harvard and CFR, Splitting Atoms: Why Do Countries Build Nuclear Power Plants?, International Interactions: Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations, Volume 38, Issue 1, 2012, DOI:10.1080/03050629.2012.640209)
There may also be a more direct relationship between nuclear energy programs and violent conflict
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attacks against nuclear facilities are more deadly in the future (Reiter 2011).

Grid
Empicially denied- hurricane sandy
They wrote their plan wrong- Power purchasing agreements mean the DOD buys power from privately owned SMRs which means they are still attached to the grid
Small modular renewables are dominating the small markets now- no SMRs- we control uniqueness- solves “microgrids”
Lovins 2012 (Amory, physicist, environmental scientist, writer, and Chairman/Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, Oxford MA, A Farewell to Fossil Fuels: Answering the Energy Challenge, Foreign Affairs, March/April, proquest)
REPOWERING PROSPERITY The United States must replace its aging, dirty, and insecure electric
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, since higher efficiency and renewable energy should lower the demand for gas.
No threat to power grids- their studies don’t take into account the laws of physics
Toor 10 (Amar Toor, “Don't Worry, Terrorists Won't Bring Down the U.S. Power Grid, Researchers Say”, http://www.switched.com/2010/10/14/dont-worry-terrorists-wont-bring-down-the-u-s-power-grid-re/, 10/14/10, Accessed 7/13/12, WITASZEK)
Over the past few months, many politicians and national security experts have grown increasingly
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least amount of flow -- it would be a massive waste of resources."
There impact story makes no sense-if EMPs take out the grid there is no way to retaliate with nuclear weapons
EMP impact claims are bias
Farley, Assistant professor at the University of Kentucky’s Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce and a contributor to PRA’s Right Web 9’
Robert, “The EMP Threat: Lots of Hype, Little Traction” (http://www.rightweb.irc-online.org/articles/display/the_emp_threat_lots_of_hype_little_traction) October, T.a
The central political purpose of the EMP awareness movement appears to be advancement of the
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larger nuclear weapons stockpile, for missile defense, and for preventive attacks.
No escalation - Obama will not use nuclear weapons first
NYT, 2010 April 5th, Obama Limits When U.S. Would Use Nuclear Arms, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/06/world/06arms.html?pagewanted=alland_r=0
WASHINGTON — President Obama said Monday that he was revamping American nuclear strategy to substantially
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but also working in tandem with NATO as a whole,” he said.
They say Taiwan- there is no reason SMRs are key to resolve the Taiwan conflict – Air craft carriars solve
Economic ties deter war between China and Taiwan
Eric Ting-Lun Huang, LL.B. Soo-chow University School of Law, Taiwan, ROC; LL.M., and currently S.J.D. candidate, Golden Gate Law, Spring 2003, 9 Ann. Surv. Int'l and Comp. L. 55
After twelve years of negotiations, Taiwan was admitted as a full member of the
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tensions and gradually increase economic cooperation through their repeated contacts at WTO meetings.
Cyberattacks won’t happen independently of regular war
Gartzke 2012 (12/7, Erik, Associate Professor of Political Science at University of California, San Diego, The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War on the Internet Back Down to Earth, http://dss.ucsd.edu/~egartzke/papers/cyberwar_12062012.pdf)
4.2 Warfare in Cyberspace¶ Beyond questions of means and motive, two
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of cyberwar, then cyberwar is also unlikely to constitute a critical threat.
Increasing reactors for military use makes them terrorist targets
Greenpeace ‘6 (“Nuclear Terrorism,” June 27, http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/campaigns/nuclear/safety/nuclear-terrorism/, Mike)
"Nuclear terrorism is still often treated as science fiction - I wish it were
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panel, unlike a nuclear facility, is not an attractive terrorist target!

2nc

SQ microgrids and renewables solve
Asmus and Adamson 2012 (Peter, Senior Research Analyst at Pike Research, a market research and consulting team that provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets, and Dr. Kerry-Ann, Research Director and Ph.D. in fuel cells from Imperial College, London, Military Microgrids: ¶ Stationary Base, Forward Operating Base, and¶ Mobile Smart Grid Networks for Renewables Integration,¶ Demand Response, and Mission-Critical Security, December, http://www.pikeresearch.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/MMG-12-Executive-Summary.pdf)
Stationary Military Bases¶ As awareness about the electrical grid’s vulnerability to terrorist attacks and
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Martin, General Electric (GE), Honeywell, Boeing,¶ and Eaton.
Any solvency deficit they have to the squo links to them and has no impact
Bressler 2012 (Matthew, Intern at the Rocky Mountain Institute, How Military SPIDERS Project Aids Grid Cyber-Security, http://blog.rmi.org/how_military_SPIDERS_project_aids_grid_cyber_security)
Reinventing Fire, RMI’s roadmap to a U.S. energy future free of
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production and distribution via microgrids can significantly decrease the impact of future threats.

Economic ties deter war between China and Taiwan
Eric Ting-Lun Huang, LL.B. Soo-chow University School of Law, Taiwan, ROC; LL.M., and currently S.J.D. candidate, Golden Gate Law, Spring 2003, 9 Ann. Surv. Int'l and Comp. L. 55
After twelve years of negotiations, Taiwan was admitted as a full member of the
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tensions and gradually increase economic cooperation through their repeated contacts at WTO meetings.

Cyberattacks won’t happen independently of regular war
Gartzke 2012 (12/7, Erik, Associate Professor of Political Science at University of California, San Diego, The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War on the Internet Back Down to Earth, http://dss.ucsd.edu/~egartzke/papers/cyberwar_12062012.pdf)
4.2 Warfare in Cyberspace¶ Beyond questions of means and motive, two
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of cyberwar, then cyberwar is also unlikely to constitute a critical threat.

Heg

The status quo solves this advantage- their Martino evidence is about domestic competitiveness whereas their kagan evidence is about forward power projection with things like air craft carriers, not something the aff interacts with
Leadership IS NOT based on domestic industry- it’s based on the LEGACY of safety and tech leadership, which the SQ obviously solves- no reason institutional legitimacy will go away if we do renewables instead
Domenici and Miller September 2012 (Senator Pete V. Domenici¶ Former U.S. Senator and Bipartisan¶ Policy Center Senior Fellow¶ ENERGY PROJECT STAFF¶ Lourdes Long¶ Senior Policy Analyst¶ Warren F. “Pete” Miller, Ph.D.¶ Former Department of Energy Assistant¶ Secretary for Nuclear Energy; Maintaining U.S.¶ Leadership in¶ Global Nuclear¶ Energy Markets, http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Nuclear%20Report.PDF)
Given this near-term expansion, the United States will¶ continue to be
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by¶ newer-generation resources (potentially including some¶ nuclear replacements).
Decline inevitable- Material power trades off with social power which is the only relevant
Buzan 11 (Barry, London School of Economics, Department of International Relations, "A World Order Without Superpowers: Decentred Globalism")
In terms of material capability, the United States is the only state that has
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could thus quite quickly shift the US from superpower to great power status.
Hegemonic decline doesn't cause conflict- new international system eliminates zero-sum formula
Buzan 11 (Barry, London School of Economics, Department of International Relations, "A World Order Without Superpowers: Decentred Globalism")

In 2004 I argued, in line with much mainstream thinking, that the most
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to keep the world order from falling into 1930s-style imperial competition.
Heg doesn’t solve war
Maher 10 Richard Maher, Ph.D. in Political Science at Brown University, November 12, 2010,“The Paradox of American Unipolarity: Why the United States May Be Better Off in a Post-Unipolar World”, http://dl2af5jf3e.scholar.serialssolutions.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/?sid=googleandauinit=Randaulast=Maherandatitle=The+paradox+of+American+unipolarity:+Why+the+United+States+may+be+better+off+in+a+post-unipolar+worldandid=doi:10.1016/j.orbis.2010.10.003andtitle=Orbis+(Philadelphia)andvolume=55andissue=1anddate=2011andspage=53andissn=0030-4387

The other way to think about power is the ability to realize one's own preferences
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, or seek to decrease their reliance or dependence on American security guarantees.
Competitiveness not key to heg
Brooks and Wohlforth 8 Stephen G. Brooks is Assistant Professor and William C. Wohlforth is Professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College, “World out of Balance, International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy,” p. 32-35

American primacy is also rooted in the county's position as the world's leading technological power
AND
until the distribution of capabilities changes fundamentally. The next section explains why.

Heg resilient
Lieber 9 Department of Government, Georgetown University, Robert, Persistent primacy and the future of the American era, International Politics (2009) 46, 119–139

In general, effective alternatives to the role played by the United States tend to
AND
and the fortunes of a global liberal democratic order – depend on it.

Hegemonic decline doesn't cause conflict- new international system eliminates zero-sum formula
Buzan 11 (Barry, London School of Economics, Department of International Relations, "A World Order Without Superpowers: Decentred Globalism")

In 2004 I argued, in line with much mainstream thinking, that the most
AND
to keep the world order from falling into 1930s-style imperial competition.
Heg doesn’t solve war
Maher 10 Richard Maher, Ph.D. in Political Science at Brown University, November 12, 2010,“The Paradox of American Unipolarity: Why the United States May Be Better Off in a Post-Unipolar World”, http://dl2af5jf3e.scholar.serialssolutions.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/?sid=googleandauinit=Randaulast=Maherandatitle=The+paradox+of+American+unipolarity:+Why+the+United+States+may+be+better+off+in+a+post-unipolar+worldandid=doi:10.1016/j.orbis.2010.10.003andtitle=Orbis+(Philadelphia)andvolume=55andissue=1anddate=2011andspage=53andissn=0030-4387

The other way to think about power is the ability to realize one's own preferences
AND
, or seek to decrease their reliance or dependence on American security guarantees.
Competitiveness not key to heg
Brooks and Wohlforth 8 Stephen G. Brooks is Assistant Professor and William C. Wohlforth is Professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College, “World out of Balance, International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy,” p. 32-35

American primacy is also rooted in the county's position as the world's leading technological power
AND
until the distribution of capabilities changes fundamentally. The next section explains why.

Heg resilient
Lieber 9 Department of Government, Georgetown University, Robert, Persistent primacy and the future of the American era, International Politics (2009) 46, 119–139

In general, effective alternatives to the role played by the United States tend to
AND
and the fortunes of a global liberal democratic order – depend on it.

Prolif

No solvency-SMRs still use HEU so a country could develop nuclear weapons
No widespread proliferation
Hymans 12
Jacques Hymans, USC Associate Professor of IR, 4/16/12, North Korea's Lessons for (Not) Building an Atomic Bomb, www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137408/jacques-e-c-hymans/north-koreas-lessons-for-not-building-an-atomic-bomb?page=show
Washington's miscalculation is not just a product of the difficulties of seeing inside the Hermit
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- than they did during the first 25 years of the nuclear age.
As I explain in my article "Botching the Bomb" in the upcoming issue
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, as a struggling proliferator, North Korea has a lot of company.
Their authors exaggerate
Farley 11, assistant professor at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce at the University of Kentucky, (Robert, "Over the Horizon: Iran and the Nuclear Paradox," 11-16, www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/10679/over-the-horizon-iran-and-the-nuclear-paradox)
But states and policymakers habitually overestimate the impact of nuclear weapons. This happens among
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weapons consistently fail to undo the existing power relationships of the international system.
The North Korean example is instructive. In spite of the dire warnings about the
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Thus far, however, the effects of the arsenal have been minimal.
Israel represents another case in which the benefits of nuclear weapons remain unclear. Although
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it is unclear whether the nuclear program has even saved Israel any money.
The problem with nukes is that there are strong material and normative pressures against their
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nations require the goodwill of at least some segments of the international community.
Given all this, it is not at all surprising that many countries eschew nuclear
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” could be solved most efficiently through alignment with an existing nuclear power.
Why do policymakers, analysts and journalists so consistently overrate the importance of nuclear weapons
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reassure its clients and maintain the cohesion of the anti-Iran block.
None of these lies are particularly dishonorable; they represent the normal course of diplomacy. But they are lies nevertheless, and serious analysts of foreign policy and international relations need to be wary of them.
Nonproliferation is a good idea, if only because states should not waste tremendous resources
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, exaggerated alarmism will substitute for a realistic appraisal of the policy landscape.
No domino effect – it’s empirically denied
Bergenas 10 (Research Associate at the Henry L. Stimson Center, Johan, “The Nuclear Domino Myth”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66738/johan-bergenas/the-nuclear-domino-myth)
But there's one problem with this "nuclear domino" scenario: the historical record
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was there even a two-country nuclear arms race in the region.
Prolif key to international stability- solves your advantage
Waltz 12 – Senior Research Scholar at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies and Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Columbia University (Kenneth N., Foreign Affairs. Why Iran Should get the Bomb Nuclear Balancing Would Mean Stability.http://sistemas.mre.gov.br/kitweb/datafiles/IRBr/pt-br/file/CAD/LXII%20CAD/Pol%C3%ADtica/Why%20Iran%20Should%20Get%20the%20Bomb.pdf)
The third possible outcome of the standoff is that Iran continues its current course and
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allow it to act¶ more aggressively and increase its support for terrorism.
No incentive for aggression- empirically rhetoric has not resulted in annihilation, and concessions throughout history prove
Pillar 12 – Visiting Professor @ Georgetown University in Security Studies and a member of the Center for Peace and Security Studies. (Paul, We Can Live with a Nuclear Iran. The Washington Monthly, 44. 3/4 (Mar/Apr 2012): 13-19. Proquest)
Meanwhile, the Israeli government, which has led the way in talking up the
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the notion that the Iranians' God always pushes them toward violence and martyrdom.)¶ 

Their “leadership” evidence doesn’t refer to NONPROLIF leadership, only TECH leadership, we’ll still have soft power which is way more relevant to nonprolif, we can cooperate with the new tech leaders which are France and South Korea
Domenici and Miller September 2012 (Senator Pete V. Domenici¶ Former U.S. Senator and Bipartisan¶ Policy Center Senior Fellow¶ ENERGY PROJECT STAFF¶ Lourdes Long¶ Senior Policy Analyst¶ Warren F. “Pete” Miller, Ph.D.¶ Former Department of Energy Assistant¶ Secretary for Nuclear Energy; Maintaining U.S.¶ Leadership in¶ Global Nuclear¶ Energy Markets, http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Nuclear%20Report.PDF)
With the world’s largest commercial nuclear fleet, the United¶ States was once the
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with the international community to minimize the risk of¶ nuclear weapons proliferation.

Nuclear leadership now- solves spillover and science advantages
The Hill 10/25/2012 (Regulatory chief: Edge on nuclear power shifting to US, http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/264113-nrc-chief-us-nuclear-industry-in-good-position)
U.S. nuclear innovation is on the rise as nuclear heavyweights Germany and
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and therefore could cost less than the “extra large” legacy models.

Warming Add-On
Nuke power trades off with renewables, jacks short-term transition key to solve warming and peak fossil fuel
Conolley 2011 (Heather, PhD Candidate in Political Science at UC- Santa Barbara, The Renaissance of Nuclear Energy in the Shadow of Climate Change, PhD Dissertation, proquest)
Given the long lead time associated with development and reactor ¶ construction, nuclear opponents
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). Thus opportunity costs for constructing nuclear reactors must be ¶ carefully considered.

Alaska Add-On
Arctic war won’t happen – media exaggerates and US would win quickly
Beckhusen 8/9 (Robert, Wired, Russia and Canada Gear Up for Arctic Non-War, 2012, http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/08/arctic/) CC
The exaggerated fears of a coming Arctic war with Russia have largely receded since a
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killing each other over low-key — and remote — territorial disputes.
No Arctic war- nobody will fight, cooperation is more likely, everyone’s goal is TRADE not TERRITORY
NYT 2012 (9/18, Race Is On as Ice Melt Reveals Arctic Treasures, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/19/science/earth/arctic-resources-exposed-by-warming-set-off-competition.html?pagewanted=alland_r=0)
Ownership of the Arctic is governed by the United Nations Convention of the Law of
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behaving responsibly,” he said. “They just want to make money.”