Tournament: WNPT | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge: 

1AC

Based Islands Advantage

Advantage one is ~%23basedislands

Long-term grid outages are devastating and highly probable – degrading infrastructure, solar storm, EMP, cyberattack, pandemic, or physical attack

Bartlett et al 12 (Roscoe, Congressman 6th district of Maryland, Rich Andres, Energy Security Chair, National Defense University, Jack Markey, Director, Division of Emergency Management in Frederick County, Maryland, Marshall Hanson, Legislative Director, Reserve Officers Association,  R. James Woolsey, Chairman, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, and Former Director of Central Intelligence,  The Honorable Robert McFarlane, former National Security Advisor to President Reagan, Aug 3, ~bartlett.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=305763~, jam)
Congressman Bartlett noted, "The U.S. electric grid is one of
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Roscoe Bartlett is the go-to man on energy and environmental policies."

Civilian grid blackouts wreck national command authority, fracture global military operations, collapse deterrence, and escalate to nuclear war—vulnerability independently invites cyber-attacks

Andres %26 Breetz 11 (Richard B., Professor of national Security Strategy at the national War College and a Senior fellow and energy and environmental Security and Policy Chair in the Center for Strategic research, institute for national Strategic Studies, at the national Defense University, Hanna L., doctoral candidate in the Department of Political Science at the Massachusetts institute of technology, "Small Nuclear Reactors for Military Installations: Capabilities, Costs, and Technological Implications," February 2011, ~www.ndu.edu/press/lib/pdf/StrForum/SF-262.pdf~, jam)
Grid Vulnerability. DOD is unable to provide its bases with electricity when the civilian
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however, may not share this fear or be deterred by this possibility. 

Loss of national command authority and cyber attack causes miscalc and extinction

Lawson 9 (Sean - assistant professor in the Department of Communication at the University of Utah, Cross-Domain Response to Cyber Attacks and the Threat of Conflict, 5/13, http://www.seanlawson.net/?p=477)
At a time when it seems impossible to avoid the seemingly growing hysteria over the
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lethal agent is regarded with the same or greater seriousness." ~7~ 

SMRs efficiently island bases from grid failure—deters by denial

Andres %26 Breetz 11 (Richard B., Professor of national Security Strategy at the national War College and a Senior fellow and energy and environmental Security and Policy Chair in the Center for Strategic research, institute for national Strategic Studies, at the national Defense University, Hanna L., doctoral candidate in the Department of Political Science at the Massachusetts institute of technology, "Small Nuclear Reactors for Military Installations: Capabilities, Costs, and Technological Implications," February 2011, ~www.ndu.edu/press/lib/pdf/StrForum/SF-262.pdf~, jam)
In 2008, the Defense Science Board stressed that DOD should mitigate the electrical grid’s
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in order to win an ongoing battle or war would be greatly reduced. 

Thorium is the only energy capable of reliably supporting bases

Ackerman 11 (Spencer, senior reporter at Wired, "Latest Pentagon Brainstorm: Nuke-Powered War Bases," Feb 18, ~www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/02/nuke-bases/~, jam)
Imagine the snow-capped peaks of mountainous eastern Afghanistan. Wouldn’t it be better
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I have no idea why you’d want to bring that upon the world."

Prolif Advantage

Advantage two is prolif

Russia has dropped out of Nunn-Lugar – without reprocessing, vulnerable fissile material will find its way into the hands of terrorists causing extinction – Russia needs a new, independent, cost-effective program

NYT 10/17 ("Mr. Putin’s Gift to Terrorists," 2012, NYTimes Editorial Board, ~www.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/opinion/vladimir-putins-gift-to-terrorists.html?_r=1%26~, jam)
There will be plenty of losers from Russia’s recent decision to end two decades of
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Mr. Putin, having created that problem, must now solve it.

START means there is a lot of new vulnerable fissile material – Russia won’t deal with it

Diakov 12 (Anatoli, Center for Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies, "Disposition of Excess Russian Weapon HEU and Plutonium," Feb, ~www.unidir.org/pdf/ouvrages/pdf-1-92-9045-012-D-en.pdf~, jam)
There is no public indication that Russia has set specific requirements for the quantities of
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will not be used to block Rosatom SWU sales in the United States. 

Nuclear terrorism is inevitable absent fissile material disposal and Russia is the most likely candidate for theft—Bin Laden was only the beginning—expert consensus

Smith 11 (James F., Communications Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Jun 6, ~www.nti.org/newsroom/news/first-joint-us-russia-assessment/~, jam)
Researchers from the United States and Russia today issued a joint assessment of the global
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by UN, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and international police organizations.

Assume a high risk of nuclear attack – it is too easy to steal weapons grade material

Tirone ’12 (Jonathan, reporter for Bloomberg News, 3/22/2012, "Missing Nukes Fuel Terror Concern," ~www.businessweek.com/news/2012-03-22/missing-nukes-fuel-terror-concern-as-seoul-meeting-draws-obama~%23p1~, jam)
A nuclear-armed terrorist attack on the U.S. port in Long
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lead to a detonation that would make the Fukushima disaster pale in comparison."

Terrorism causes global nuclear escalation – national retaliation goes global

Morgan ’9 (Dennis Ray, Professor of Foreign Studies at Hankuk University, December, "World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race" Futures, Vol 41 Issue 10, p 683-693, ScienceDirect) ORIGINALLY CUT BY MATT GOMEZ FOR THE SCUFI. THANKS, MATT.
In a remarkable website on nuclear war, Carol Moore asks the question "Is
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, taking a savage toll upon the environment and fragile ecosphere as well.

Thorium reactors can’t produce weapons grade waste – stymies proliferation

Donohue 8/17 (Nathan, George Washington University, Elliott School of International Affairs, research intern for the Project on Nuclear Issues, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2012, "Thorium and its Value in Nonproliferation," ~csis.org/blog/thorium-and-its-value-nonproliferation~, jam)
The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) recently featured an article on their Science
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); and advanced designs such as Molten Salt Reactor and Accelerator Driven System.

LFTRs provide safe and effective reprocessing without risk of prolif

Hall 10 (Vincent, M.S. Chemical Engineering at University of Tennessee-Knoxville, Process Engineer at Burns %26 McDonnell, "A REVIEW OF THE BENEFITS AND APPLICATIONS OF THE THORIUM FUEL CYCLE," Sep 21, jam)
What appears to be the most promising reactor design for the thorium fuel cycle is
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realizable and available to the public as a very clean form of energy. 

Domestic development prompts global exports

Rosner %26 Goldberg 11 (Robert, William E. Wrather Distinguished Service Professor, Departments of Astronomy and Astrophysics, and Physics, and the College at the U of Chicago, and Stephen, Energy Policy Institute at Chicago, The Harris School of Public Policy Studies, "Small Modular Reactors - Key to Future Nuclear Power Generation in the U.S.," November 2011, ~https://epic.sites.uchicago.edu/sites/epic.uchicago.edu/files/uploads/EPICSMRWhitePaperFinalcopy.pdf~~, jam)
Previous studies have documented the potential for a significant export market for U.S
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, but this assistance would not require the need for new federal funding. 

Solvency

Text: The Department of Defense should substantially increase market-fixed production cost incentives for electricity from Small Modular Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors for military facilities in the United States.

Thorium reactor tech exists—but no domestic development now

Evans-Pritchard ’10 Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor, "Obama could kill fossil fuels overnight with a nuclear dash for thorium," The Telegraph (UK), 8/29/2010, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/7970619/Obama-could-kill-fossil-fuels-overnight-with-a-nuclear-dash-for-thorium.html
Muddling on with the status quo is not a grown-up policy. The
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way to pull the US out of perma-slump than scattershot stimulus.

Federal production cost-incentives are key to widespread commercialization – learning benefits and aggregation of demand

Rosner %26 Goldberg 11 (Robert, William E. Wrather Distinguished Service Professor, Departments of Astronomy and Astrophysics, and Physics, and the College at the U of Chicago, and Stephen, Energy Policy Institute at Chicago, The Harris School of Public Policy Studies, "Small Modular Reactors - Key to Future Nuclear Power Generation in the U.S.," November 2011, ~https://epic.sites.uchicago.edu/sites/epic.uchicago.edu/files/uploads/EPICSMRWhitePaperFinalcopy.pdf~~, jam)
As illustrated in the previous discussion, until significant learning benefits are achieved, the
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, can surmount these challenges and provide critical initial markets for SMR plants. 

No disads—SMR incentives inevitable

Tomich 11-2 Jeffrey Tomich, "Ameren, Westinghouse still waiting for decision on nuclear grant," St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 11/2/2012, http://www.equities.com/news/headline-story?dt=2012-11-02%26val=666817%26cat=energy-http://www.equities.com/news/headline-story?dt=2012-11-02%26val=666817%26cat=energy
President Barack Obama announced the availability of grant funding for so-called small nuclear
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. "I think it will move forward next year," he said.

Plan bypasses licensing restrictions—causes rapid commercialization

Hunt 11 (Gary L, 30 years experience in the energy, software and information technology industries,  Tech%26Creative Labs, "Is there a Small Modular Nuke in our Distributed Energy Future?," May 31, ~www.tclabz.com/2011/05/31/is-there-a-small-modular-nuke-in-our-distributed-energy-future/~, jam)
What the US military needs according to Colonel Roege is clean, modular, transportable
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to displace coal and replace the first generation nuclear units as they retire.

Optional Solvency Cards

LFTRs are cheap and will get cheaper

Hargraves and Moir ’10 Robert Hargraves, teaches energy policy at the Institute for Lifelong Education at Dartmouth, PhD in physics from Brown, and Ralph Moir, Sc.D. in nuclear engineering from MIT, published 10 papers on molten-salt reactors during his career at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, "Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors: An old idea in nuclear power gets reexamined," American Scientist, Vol. 98, No. 4, July-August 2010, http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/feature/liquid-fluoride-thorium-reactors
In terms of cost, the ideal would be to compete successfully against coal without
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sites. The savings from adapting existing infrastructure could be very large indeed. 

Transition takes 30 months

Sorensen 11 (Kirk, studying thorium technology since 2000 and has been a public advocate for its use and development since 2006, masters’ degree in aerospace engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology and is studying nuclear engineering at the University of Tennessee under Dr. Laurence Miller, May 28, ~www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/big-picture/2011/05/28/03/kirk-sorensen/thorium-could-be-our-energy-silver-bullet~, jam)
Jim: (32:00) Let me throw another idea, and I’ve
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and the answer is absolutely yes. And it would go quite quickly.

Thorium can be introduced into existing nuclear fuel cycles

IAEA ’5 "Thorium fuel cycle — Potential benefits and challenges," International Atomic Energy Agency, Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Materials Section, May 2005, http://www-pub.iaea.org/mtcd/publications/pdf/te_1450_web.pdf
Several thorium-based fuel design options investigated in recent years ~28~, have
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existing LWRs (i.e., within the current "safety envelope").

Extra Prolif Cards

Plan makes the U.S. a leader in thorium tech – formal mechanisms buoy international adoption

Johnson 6 (Brian, BS Nuclear Engineering from Oregon State U, later received a Ph.D. in Nuclear Science and Engineering from M.I.T., "Thorium for Use in Plutonium Disposition,Proliferation-Resistant Fuels for DevelopingCountries, and Future Reactor Designs,"  ~www.wise-intern.org/journal/2006/Johnson-ANS.pdf~, jam)
As it stands, the joint plutonium disposition plans of the United State and Russia
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, the United States could become a leader in thorium-based technology. 

Optimists are wrong—prolif is destabilizing—induces brinksmanship which causes miscalc, accidental launch, out of control escalation

Kroenig ’12 Matthew Kroenig, Council on Foreign Relations Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow and Georgetown University assistant professor of government, "The History of Proliferation Optimism:  Does It Have A Future?" Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, 5/26/2012, http://www.npolicy.org/article.php?aid=1182%26tid=30
First and foremost, proliferation optimists do not appear to understand contemporary deterrence theory.  
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war in an attempt to force less-resolved opponents to back down.

Warming Advantage

We’re on the brink of rapid, runaway warming. Status quo renewable energy is insufficient – we need global emissions reductions now in order to avert climate change

Steffen 10/15 (Will, renowned climate scientist, Executive Director of the Climate Change Institute at Australian National University and PhD from U. Florida, "Time for rapid and decisive action on climate change" The Climate Commission http://climatecommission.gov.au/basics/time-rapid-decisive-action-climate-change/-http://climatecommission.gov.au/basics/time-rapid-decisive-action-climate-change/) wg

The recent announcement of the 2012 record-breaking ice loss over the Arctic sea
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the climate system will not wait for humanity to get its act together.

Thorium SMR’s are key to displace fossil fuels and solve warming – developing countries will follow the US’s lead on cheap and fast nuclear – they’re the key internal link to future emissions

Shellenberger et al 9/11 (Michael, founder of the Breakthrough Institute and MA in anthropology from UC Santa Cruz, Ted Nordhaus, Chairman of the Breakthrough Institute, and Jessica Lovering, Policy analyst in the Energy and Climate Program at the Breakthrough Institute with MA’s in Astrophysics and Environmental Studies from CU-Boulder. "New Nukes: Why We Need Radical Innovation to Make New Nuclear Energy Cheap" The Breakthrough Institute, http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/programs/energy-and-climate/new-nukes/-http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/programs/energy-and-climate/new-nukes/)

Arguably, the biggest impact of Fukushima on the nuclear debate, ironically, has
AND
than developing the nuclear technologies we will need to get that job done.

This would trigger key reductions in carbon emissions—that’s essential to slow and reverse anthropogenic climate change

Hargraves and Moir ’11 Robert Hargraves, teaches energy policy at the Institute for Lifelong Education at Dartmouth, PhD in physics from Brown, and Ralph Moir, Sc.D. in nuclear engineering from MIT, published 10 papers on molten-salt reactors during his career at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, "Liquid Fuel Nuclear Reactors," Physics %26 Society, January 2011, http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/201101/hargraves.cfm
Burning coal for power is the largest source of atmospheric CO2, which drives global
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, ending 10 billion tons per year of CO2 emissions from coal plants.

Warming causes extinction

Sify ’10 citing Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, professor at University of Queensland and Director of the Global Change Institute, and John Bruno, associate professor of Marine Science at UNC, "Could unbridled climate changes lead to human extinction?" Sify News, 6/19/10, http://www.sify.com/news/could-unbridled-climate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html
The findings of the comprehensive report: ’The impact of climate change on the world’s
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, according to a GCI release. These findings were published in Science.

Tournament: wnpt | Round: quarters | Opponent:  | Judge: 

Warming Advantage

Advantage one is warming

We’re on the brink of rapid, runaway warming. Status quo renewable energy is insufficient – we need global emissions reductions now in order to avert climate change

Steffen 10/15 (Will, renowned climate scientist, Executive Director of the Climate Change Institute at Australian National University and PhD from U. Florida, "Time for rapid and decisive action on climate change" The Climate Commission http://climatecommission.gov.au/basics/time-rapid-decisive-action-climate-change/-http://climatecommission.gov.au/basics/time-rapid-decisive-action-climate-change/) wg

The recent announcement of the 2012 record-breaking ice loss over the Arctic sea
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the climate system will not wait for humanity to get its act together.

We’ll isolate 3 internal links to warming: First is the nuclear renaissance

The aff is key to reinvigorating nuclear energy - flexible incentives would prompt a thorium renaissance

Rosner and Goldberg ’11 (Robert, professor of astronomy, astrophysics, and physics at U. Chicago, and Stephen, Special Assistant to the Director at the Argonne National Laboratory, Energy Policy Institute at Chicago, "Small Modular Reactors – Key to Future Nuclear Power Generation in the U.S.", Technical Paper, Revision 1, November 2011)
Production Cost Incentive: A production cost incentive is a performance-based incentive.
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should be subject to further analysis as higher quality cost estimates become available.

This would trigger key reductions in carbon emissions—that’s essential to slow and reverse anthropogenic climate change

Hargraves and Moir ’11 Robert Hargraves, teaches energy policy at the Institute for Lifelong Education at Dartmouth, PhD in physics from Brown, and Ralph Moir, Sc.D. in nuclear engineering from MIT, published 10 papers on molten-salt reactors during his career at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, "Liquid Fuel Nuclear Reactors," Physics %26 Society, January 2011, http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/201101/hargraves.cfm
Burning coal for power is the largest source of atmospheric CO2, which drives global
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, ending 10 billion tons per year of CO2 emissions from coal plants.

Second is natural gas trade-off:

Financial incentives would make nuclear cost-competitive with natural gas – natty’s price volatility means countries have an incentive to switch to more reliable energy sources

Squassoni 9 (Sharon, senior associate in the Nonproliferation program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, "Nuclear energy: rebirth or resuscitation" Carnegie Institute for International Peace" http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/nuclear_energy_rebirth_resuscitation.pdf-http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/nuclear_energy_rebirth_resuscitation.pdf)

Renewed interest in nuclear energy arises from the desire to find¶ alternatives to expensive
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energy because of the existing nuclear supply structure and location of uranium resources.

Displacing natural gas is key to solve warming – methane leaks pose a greater risk to the atmosphere than CO2 and coal

Howarth et al 11 Robert Howarth, Renee Santoro, and Anthony Ingraffea, professors of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, and of Civil and Enviro Engineering at Cornell, "Methane and the greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas from shale formations." Climatic Change 106:4, April 2011

We evaluate the greenhouse gas footprint of natural gas obtained by high volume hydraulic fracturing
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the 20-year horizon and is comparable when compared over 100 years.

Third is coal trade-off:

Thorium SMR’s are key to displace coal and solve warming – developing countries will follow the US’s lead on cheap and fast nuclear – they’re the key internal link to future emissions

Shellenberger et al 9/11 (Michael, founder of the Breakthrough Institute and MA in anthropology from UC Santa Cruz, Ted Nordhaus, Chairman of the Breakthrough Institute, and Jessica Lovering, Policy analyst in the Energy and Climate Program at the Breakthrough Institute with MA’s in Astrophysics and Environmental Studies from CU-Boulder. "New Nukes: Why We Need Radical Innovation to Make New Nuclear Energy Cheap" The Breakthrough Institute, http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/programs/energy-and-climate/new-nukes/-http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/programs/energy-and-climate/new-nukes/)

Arguably, the biggest impact of Fukushima on the nuclear debate, ironically, has
AND
than developing the nuclear technologies we will need to get that job done.

Reducing coal emissions is key – demand and outsize supply mean a rapid shift away from coal is necessary to solve warming

Swart and Weaver 12 (Neil Swart, PhD student in oceanography at U. Victoria, and Andrew Weaver, Oceanography professor and widely renowned climate scientist at U. Victoria, where he has been a lead author for the IPCC, a Guggenheim Fellow, and a co-recipient of a Nobel Prize. "The Alberta oil sands and climate, Nature Climate Change" Miscellaneous Material, 2/19/12, http://miscellaneousmaterial.blogspot.com/2012/02/alberta-oil-sands-and-climate-nature.html)

Recent estimates show that an enormous global fossil-fuel total resource base is available
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sources, while avoiding commitments to new infrastructure supporting dependence on fossil fuels12.

And, climate change poses an unmistakable danger to life of all kinds on Earth.  At stake are the very life cycle processes relied upon by humans and nonhumans alike.

Hannah ’12 Lee Hannah, senior researcher in climate change biology at Conservation International, visiting researcher and adjunct professor at the Bren School of Environmental Science %26 Management at UC-Santa Barbara, has a pretty detailed Wikipedia page, "As Threats to Biodiversity Grow, Can We Save World’s Species?" Yale Environment 360, 4/19/2012, http://e360.yale.edu/feature/as_threats_to_biodiversity_grow_can_we_save_worlds_species/2518/
Now, with 7 billion people on the planet — heading to 10 billion —
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timber, ranching, and farming such crops as soybeans and oil palm.

Climate change also affects humans unequally.  Regions responsible for the least GHG emissions will be at the greatest disadvantage.  Sea level rise puts the hundreds of millions of people living on coastal and low-lying regions at risk, while climate shifts magnify food and water shortages.  Entire islands are sinking.  Action is key.

Byravan and Rajan ’10 Sujatha Byravan and Sudhir Chella Rajan, "The Ethical Implications of Sea-Level Rise Due to Climate Change," Ethics %26 International Affairs 24, No. 3, 9/20/2010, only accessible on some exclusive database
As scientific evidence for the adverse effects of human-induced climate change grows stronger
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and resettlement in regions and countries on higher ground in advance of disaster. 

Solvency

Thus, we affirm: The United States federal government should substantially increase market-fixed production cost incentives for Liquid Fuel Thorium Small Modular Reactors.

Observation two is solvency:

Talking about state policies that improve the ways we produce energy and contest climate change has a radical potential.  The 1AC affirms a militant pluralist assemblage tasked with exploring new strategies for reducing inequality and changing human interaction with our so-called ’environment.’

Connolly ’12 William E. Connolly, Krieger-Eisenhower Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University, "Steps toward an Ecology of Late Capitalism," Theory %26 Event, Vol. 15, Issue 1, 2012, Muse
3.    Today, perhaps the initial target should be on reconstituting established patterns of
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, role performance, cultural ethos, market regulation, and citizen activism.

Praxis can be hard, but planning action is essential for achieving our critical goals.  The world is not reducible solely to discourse—subjectivity is also positioned within material circumstances that influence thought—this demands particular strategies for change

Bryant ’12 Levi Bryant, teaches philosophy at Collin College, "RSI, Discursivity, Critique, and Politics," Larval Subjects, 7/18/2012, http://larvalsubjects.wordpress.com/2012/07/18/rsi-discursivity-critique-and-politics/
If I get worked up about these issues, then this is because I think
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, hitching everything on psychology, attachment, and identification. Well done%21

Even if our aff does not resolve calculative thinking or our alienation from the environment, our advocacy of policy changes to address global warming is still essential.  The scientific consensus around warming is not replicated in current politics.  We should recognize and contest the destitution emblematic in warming denialism.

Housman 11 Benjamin H. Housman Undergradute Honor’s Thesis at Emory titled "Cooling Down Global Warming: Revisiting Sartre and Heidegger on this Modern Day Challenge" April 14, 2011, PJF
Up to this point we have explored existential theories of responsibility, social ontology,
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positioned, technological world that impairs an ethic of care towards our environment.

Even if fiat is ’illusory,’ even if it seems like the government won’t listen, it’s ethically messed up for you to foreclose potential routes of advocating for the other

Perrin ’4 Colin Perrin, PhD in Law and Philosophy from the University of Kent, held research positions at the University of New South Wales and the University of Durham, 2004, Social and Legal Studies, Vol. 13, No. 1, p. 138-141
Explicitly it is a matter of ’speaking for those who . . . can
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– the language to which silence, as silence, must have recourse.

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
Advantage one is space
Scenario one is existential risk
Risk of extinction is too damn high—expert consensus
Matheny 7 (Jason, Department of Health Policy and Management, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, “Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction,” Risk Analysis, Vol 27, No 5)
It is possible for humanity (or its descendents) to survive a million years
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stakes are high, it could be wise to invest in extinction countermeasures.
Reducing existential risk comparatively outweighs any impact – science
Bostrom 11 (Nick, Professor in the Faculty of Philosophy and Oxford Martin School, Director of the Future of Humanity Institute, and Director of the Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology at the University of Oxford, recipient of the 2009 Eugene R. Gannon Award for the Continued Pursuit of Human Advancement, holds a Ph.D. in Philosophy from the London School of Economics, 2011,“The Concept of Existential Risk,” Draft of a Paper published on ExistentialRisk.com, http://www.existentialrisk.com/concept.htm)
Holding probability constant, risks become more serious as we move toward the upper-
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than the positive value of the direct benefit of such an action. 10
SMRs solve colonization
O’Neil 11 (Ian, PhD from University of Wales, founder and editor of Astroengine, space producer for Discovery News “'Suitcase' Nuclear Reactors to Power Mars Colonies,” August 30th, http://news.discovery.com/space/mars-colonies-powered-by-mini-nuclear-reactors-110830.html)
Nuclear power is an emotive subject -- particularly in the wake of the Fukushima power
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versatile and affordable power resources to support manned exploration of the solar system.
Only SMRs have the versatility required for colonization
Casey 11 (Tina, freelance writer, articles are reposted frequently on Reuters, Scientific American, and many other sites. Deputy Director of Public Affairs for the New York City Department of Environmental Protection, “NASA Testing Suitcase-Sized Nukes To Power Colonies On Remote Planets,” August 29th, http://idealab.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/08/nasa-testing-suitcase-sized-nukes-to-power-colonies-on-remote-planets.php)
NASA is developing a mini nuclear power-generating plant that is the size of
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be linked together as needed to provide more power for a growing colony.
SMRs fit on the shuttle
Chew 10 (Mark, MBA and Masters, MIT’s LGO program “Disrupting Coal with Modular Nuclear Reactors,” May 30th, http://miter.mit.edu/article/disrupting-coal-modular-nuclear-reactors)
Energy Secretary Steven Chu recently published an article in the Wall Street Journal advocating small
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energy such as power generation in remote locations and long-range rockets.
And Mars colonization would reduce existential risk—we need lifeboats for Spaceship Earth
Gott 11—Ph.D., professor of astrophysical sciences at Princeton University, recipient of the Robert J. Trumpler Award, an Alfred P. Sloan Fellowship, the Astronomical League Award, and Princeton's President's Award for Distinguished Teaching J. Richard Gott, III, “A One-Way Trip to Mars,” Journal of Cosmology, 2011, Vol 13, http://journalofcosmology.com/Mars151.html
I've been advocating a one-way colonizing trip to Mars for many years (
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last 50 years. But will we be wise enough to do this?
Colonization is necessary to avoid an inevitable extinction—Mars is the best place
Gott 9—Professor of Astrophysics at Princeton University, recipient of the Robert J. Trumpler Award, an Alfred P. Sloan Fellowship, the Astronomical League Award, and Princeton's President's Award for Distinguished Teaching J. Richard, July 17th, “A Goal for the Human Spaceflight Program,” NASA, http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/368985main_GottSpaceflightGoal.pdf
The goal of the human spaceflight program should be to increase the survival prospects of
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permanent colony in space, Mars would seem the logical place to start.
Only Colonization solves extinction from disease, space objects, and nuclear war
Huang 5
Michael Huang, “Spaceflight or Extinction”, cites Carl Sagan who was a professor of astronomy and space sciences at Cornell University, cites J. Richard Gott III who is a professor of astrophysical sciences at Princeton University, cites Martin Rees who is a professor of cosmology and astrophysics and Master of Trinity College at the University of Cambridge. http://www.spaext.com/
If there are civilizations elsewhere in the universe, Their eventual choice, as
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first sterile seas? The choice may depend on us, this century. 

Space colonization is key to transhumanism – solves squo barriers to colonization
Andreadis 2008
Athena, PhD and author of To Seek Out New Life: The Biology of Star Trek, “The intersection of transhumanism and space travel” 3/13/2008. http://www.starshipnivan.com/blog/?p=60

Views of space travel have grown increasingly pessimistic in the last decade. This is
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except it may be a Plurality of sapiens species and inhabited worlds instead. 

Transhumanism key to overcoming death and suffering – whatchu kno’ bout immortality
Tirosh-Samuelson 2008
(Hava, Prof of History at Arizona State, “Engaging Transhumanism: The Meaning of Being Human,” A paper prepared for the “Transhumanism and the Meanings of Progress” workshop, ASU, Tempe, AZ, April 24-25, 2008, Published   2008.06.05, http://www.metanexus.net/magazine/tabid/68/id/10547/Default.aspx)

For transhumanists (i.e., those who advocate the transitional steps humans need
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product of evolution but the designers and controllers of the evolutionary process itself.

1AC – Prolif
Advantage two is prolif
Russia has dropped out of Nunn-Lugar – without reprocessing, vulnerable fissile material will find its way into the hands of terrorists causing extinction – Russia needs a new, independent, cost-effective program
NYTimes Editorial Board 10/17 ("Mr. Putin’s Gift to Terrorists," 2012, www.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/opinion/vladimir-putins-gift-to-terrorists.html?_r=1and, jam)
There will be plenty of losers from Russia’s recent decision to end two decades of
AND
Mr. Putin, having created that problem, must now solve it.
START means there is a lot of new vulnerable fissile material – Russia won’t deal with it – not economical
Diakov 12 (Anatoli, Center for Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies, "Disposition of Excess Russian Weapon HEU and Plutonium," Feb, www.unidir.org/pdf/ouvrages/pdf-1-92-9045-012-D-en.pdf, jam)
There is no public indication that Russia has set specific requirements for the quantities of
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will not be used to block Rosatom SWU sales in the United States.
Nuclear terrorism is inevitable absent fissile material disposal—Bin Laden was only the beginning—expert consensus
Smith 11 (James F., Communications Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Jun 6, www.nti.org/newsroom/news/first-joint-us-russia-assessment/, jam)
Researchers from the United States and Russia today issued a joint assessment of the global
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by UN, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and international police organizations.
Terrorism causes global nuclear escalation – national retaliation goes global
Morgan ‘9 (Dennis Ray, Professor of Foreign Studies at Hankuk University, December, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race” Futures, Vol 41 Issue 10, p 683-693, ScienceDirect) ORIGINALLY CUT BY MATT GOMEZ FOR THE SCUFI. THANKS, MATT.
In a remarkable website on nuclear war, Carol Moore asks the question "Is
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, taking a savage toll upon the environment and fragile ecosphere as well.
Status quo MOX reprocessing fails and causes proliferation
Becker and Broad 11 (Jo, quals, and William J., quals, "New Doubts About Turning Plutonium Into a Fuel," Apr 10, www.nytimes.com/2011/04/11/us/11mox.html?pagewanted=alland_r=0, jam)
On a tract of government land along the Savannah River in South Carolina, an
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” he said. “I think the dust has to settle here.”
MOX cooperation is economically unsustainable for Russia and is seen as a Western imposition – ruins relations, causes new Cold War
Bodrov No Date (Oleg, Chair of the environmental organisation "Green World", after completing his studies in engineering and physics, he worked as a researcher on submarine reactor science for several years, received the Aland Islands Baltic Fund International Award for this work, “MOX-PROBLEM IN RUSSIA AND THE POSITION OF THE NGO,” www.gensuikin.org/english/53bodrov.html, jam)
The implementaion of international nuclear-weapons reduction treaties is leading to the removal of
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in our country, and threatens to bring about a new cold war.
Nuclear war
Allison 11, Graham, director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard’s Kennedy School and a former assistant secretary of defense in the Clinton administration, Robert, Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations and served as U.S. ambassador to India and as deputy national security adviser for strategic planning in the Bush administration “10 Reasons Why Russia Still Matters,” http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/67178_Page2.html
That central point is that Russia matters a great deal to a U.S
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.S. success, or failure, in advancing our national interests.
Thorium reactors can’t produce weapons grade waste – stymies proliferation attempts
Donohue 8/17 (Nathan, George Washington University, Elliott School of International Affairs,
research intern for the Project on Nuclear Issues, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2012, "Thorium and its Value in Nonproliferation," csis.org/blog/thorium-and-its-value-nonproliferation, jam)
The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) recently featured an article on their Science
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); and advanced designs such as Molten Salt Reactor and Accelerator Driven System.
Unlike conventional LWRs, thorium makes reprocessing safe, effective, and economical
Sorenson 11 (Kirk, bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering from Utah State University,
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, Reuse, Recycle," energyfromthorium.com/essay3rs/, jam)
One of the biggest concerns about today’s approach to nuclear power generation concerns our use
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attention, investigation, and funding based on these and many other merits.
Plan makes the U.S. a leader in thorium tech – formal mechanisms allow for international adoption
Johnson 6 (Brian, BS Nuclear Engineering from Oregon State U, later received a Ph.D. in Nuclear Science and Engineering from M.I.T., "Thorium for Use in Plutonium Disposition,Proliferation-Resistant Fuels for DevelopingCountries, and Future Reactor Designs,"  www.wise-intern.org/journal/2006/Johnson-ANS.pdf, jam)
As it stands, the joint plutonium disposition plans of the United State and Russia
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, the United States could become a leader in thorium-based technology.
Formal mechanisms mean we’ll export SMR technology globally once we use it in the U.S.
Rosner and Goldberg 11 (Robert, William E. Wrather Distinguished Service Professor, Departments of Astronomy and Astrophysics, and Physics, and the College at the U of Chicago, and Stephen, Energy Policy Institute at Chicago, The Harris School of Public Policy Studies, "Small Modular Reactors - Key to Future Nuclear Power Generation in the U.S.," November 2011, https://epic.sites.uchicago.edu/sites/epic.uchicago.edu/files/uploads/EPICSMRWhitePaperFinalcopy.pdf, jam)
Previous studies have documented the potential for a significant export market for U.S
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, but this assistance would not require the need for new federal funding.
1AC – Solvency 

Contention two is solvency
Thorium reactor tech exists—but no domestic development now
Evans-Pritchard ’10 Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor, “Obama could kill fossil fuels overnight with a nuclear dash for thorium,” The Telegraph (UK), 8/29/2010, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/7970619/Obama-could-kill-fossil-fuels-overnight-with-a-nuclear-dash-for-thorium.html
Muddling on with the status quo is not a grown-up policy. The
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way to pull the US out of perma-slump than scattershot stimulus.
The military can enter into purchase power agreements for SMRs – this market pull makes nuclear economically competitive
Rosner and Goldberg 11 (Robert, William E. Wrather Distinguished Service Professor, Departments of Astronomy and Astrophysics, and Physics, and the College at the U of Chicago, and Stephen, Energy Policy Institute at Chicago, The Harris School of Public Policy Studies, "Small Modular Reactors - Key to Future Nuclear Power Generation in the U.S.," November 2011, https://epic.sites.uchicago.edu/sites/epic.uchicago.edu/files/uploads/EPICSMRWhitePaperFinalcopy.pdf, jam)
Similar to other important energy technologies, such as energy storage and renewables, “
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, can surmount these challenges and provide critical initial markets for SMR plants.
LFTRs are super cheap and will get much cheaper with the plan
Hargraves and Moir ’10 Robert Hargraves, teaches energy policy at the Institute for Lifelong Education at Dartmouth, PhD in physics from Brown, and Ralph Moir, Sc.D. in nuclear engineering from MIT, published 10 papers on molten-salt reactors during his career at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, “Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors: An old idea in nuclear power gets reexamined,” American Scientist, Vol. 98, No. 4, July-August 2010, http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/feature/liquid-fluoride-thorium-reactors
In terms of cost, the ideal would be to compete successfully against coal without
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sites. The savings from adapting existing infrastructure could be very large indeed.
DOD can authorize
Hunt 11 (Gary L, 30 years experience in the energy, software and information technology industries,  TechandCreative Labs, "Is there a Small Modular Nuke in our Distributed Energy Future?," May 31, www.tclabz.com/2011/05/31/is-there-a-small-modular-nuke-in-our-distributed-energy-future/, jam)
What the US military needs according to Colonel Roege is clean, modular, transportable
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to displace coal and replace the first generation nuclear units as they retire.
All existing reactors can run on thorium
Cox 11 (Patrick, two decades of experience in software, public policy, medical economics and biotechnology, editor of the Breakthrough Technology Alert and Technology Profits Confidential, studied at Boise State University and has written for USA Today, Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times and Reason Magazine, Sep 12, dailyresourcehunter.com/investing-thorium-interview-patrick-cox/, jam)
Rodricks: Patrick Cox, another question about thorium. If it’s so great,
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than what we have now operating in Japan, in the United States.
Transition takes 30 months
Sorensen 11 (Kirk, studying thorium technology since 2000 and has been a public advocate for its use and development since 2006, masters’ degree in aerospace engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology and is studying nuclear engineering at the University of Tennessee under Dr. Laurence Miller, May 28, www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/big-picture/2011/05/28/03/kirk-sorensen/thorium-could-be-our-energy-silver-bullet, jam)
Jim: (32:00) Let me throw another idea, and I've
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and the answer is absolutely yes. And it would go quite quickly.