Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 1 | Opponent:  | Judge: 

Plan

The United States federal government should lower antidumping tariffs on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells from the People’s Republic of China.

China

Advantage 1 is China

US solar tariffs threaten to start a clean energy trade war

Tucker 8/27/12, William, work has appeared in Harper’s, the Atlantic Monthly, the American Spectator, the Weekly Standard, National Review, Reason, the New Republic, Reader’s Digest, the Wall Street Journal, and many other publications, "Let’s Just Admit Solar Needs Help and Avoid Trade War", http://www.nucleartownhall.com/blog/william-tucker-let%E2%80%99s-just-admit-solar-needs-help-and-avoid-trade-war/-http://www.nucleartownhall.com/blog/william-tucker-let%E2%80%99s-just-admit-solar-needs-help-and-avoid-trade-war/
Although the newspapers haven’t been paying much attention lately, the United States and China
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this will make for good old clean-and-green solar power.

Now is key – solar spills over and escalates within months

Bloomberg 9/5 ~[Bloomberg News, "China Speeding U.S. Solar-Dumping Case as Election Nears: Energy," http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-05/china-speeding-u-s-solar-dumping-case-as-election-nears-energy.html~~]
China is accelerating a dispute with the U.S. over solar-energy
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solar projects rose 61 percent to %24137.8 billion last year.

Strategic value of renewables makes this conflict uniquely likely to escalate

Beijing Review 9/3/12 ~[Citing Li Chunding, Ph.D. in Economics, research assistant at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, "Frictions over renewable energy," http://www.china.org.cn/business/2012-09/03/content_26410601.htm~~]
A month after the United States launched the anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against
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is not likely to make a compromise on trade frictions in this sector.¶ 

Trade war causes US-China military conflict

Landy 7 ~[Ben Landy, Director of Research and Strategy at the Atlantic Media Company, publisher of the Atlantic Monthly, National Journal, and Government Executive magazines.   Landy served in various research and project management positions at the Brookings Institution and Center for Strategic and International Studies, two leading public policy think tanks in Washington, D.C.  Ben holds a bachelor of arts degree from Yale University. April 3, 2007, http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/~%23comments-http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/,)
The greatest threat for the 21st century is that these economic flare-ups between
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–far more than increases in military budgets and anti-satellite tests.

That causes nuclear world war 3

Hunkovic 9 – American Military University ~[Lee J, 2009, "The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America", http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf~~]
A war between China, Taiwan and the United States has the potential to escalate
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outcome, therefore, other countries will not be considered in this study.

An escalated U.S. China trade war results in economic conflicts and devastating protectionism

Wang and Li 11 (Jianhua and Yunlu—Xinhua news agency, citing Ni Feng, Vice President of the Institute of American Studies underthe Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Zhao Jinping, vice director of the Foreign Economic Department of the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council "China-US trade war no good for anyone", October 13, 2011. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90780/7616581.html
A trade war between the United States and China, each of which is the
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and will even lead to political and military confrontations in some sensitive regions. 

That causes world war

Panzner 8—25-year veteran of the markets who has worked for for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and J.P. Morgan Chase. New York Institute of Finance faculty member and a graduate of Columbia University. (Michael, Financial Armageddon, 136-8)
Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of finance and trade will inspire the United
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between Muslims and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.

Most recent studies provide a direct connection between poor economic relations and military conflict

Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, "Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises," in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict
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such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.

The tariff prevents clean energy cooperation

AP 5/19/12 ~["Ruling adds to China trade tension: POSSIBLE U.S. TARIFFS ON SOLAR-PANEL IMPORTS MAY THREATEN CLEAN ENERGY COOPERATION," http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ruling-adds-to-china-trade-tension/article_c7071e82-78b7-5d95-b943-a8c6e5cc93de.html-http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ruling-adds-to-china-trade-tension/article_c7071e82-78b7-5d95-b943-a8c6e5cc93de.html~]
POSSIBLE U.S. TARIFFS ON SOLAR-PANEL IMPORTS MAY THREATEN CLEAN ENERGY
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trade probe have warned China might retaliate against U.S. suppliers.

That’s key to global clean tech diffusion

Lin 11 ~[Justin Yifu Lin, Former World Bank Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, "China, the US and clean energy cooperation," Jan 21 2011, http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/china-the-us-and-clean-energy-cooperation~~]
Second, there are also major long-term global benefits from clean energy cooperation between the U.S. and China.  Costs of clean energy investment would fall throughout the world, making such investment more financially sustainable.  Clean energy is also a crucial part of providing energy access to better meet basic needs, to enhance growth, and to reduce poverty.
Making clean energy more available and more affordable won’t be easy. It entails making new and improved low-carbon technologies more cost-competitive on a global scale, and supporting developing countries as they strive to expand energy availability. Here, the capacities in both China and the U.S. for innovation and increased diffusion of clean energy technology come to the fore. 

Specifically derails the diffusion of solar

Green 11, 12-19, Martin, executive research director at the Photovoltaics Centre of Excellence at the University of New South Wales in Australia, "A Solar Trade War Could Put Us All in the Dark", http://www.technologyreview.com/news/426392/a-solar-trade-war-could-put-us-all-in-the-dark/
The brewing solar trade war between the United States and China sullies what should be
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decades of international innovation and stall the global adoption of advanced solar technology.

The alternative is global war

Droege 2 ~[Peter Droege, Asia Pacific chair of the World Council for Renewable Energy, Professor at the University of Liechtenstein and the University of Newcastle School of Architecture and Built Environment; "Renewable Energy and the City: Urban life in an age of fossil fuel depletion and climate change," 23 Jan 2002, http://enviroscope.iges.or.jp/contents/13/data/PDF/WORD%20Pdf/9-1Droege_peter.pdf~~]
While a few local urban systems may seem relatively safe from a terminal fossil fuel
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not the only threat to the survivability of the modern global urban system.

The tariff undermines the Durban platform for stopping climate change

Barbier 12 (Edward B—the John S. Bugas Professor of Economics, University of Wyoming, "Can the US and China Cooperate over Climate and Clean Energy?", May 28, 2012, http://chinausfocus.com/energy-environment/can-the-us-and-china-cooperate-over-climate-and-clean-energy/)
One of the few bright spots in recent international negotiations to replace the expiring 1997
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undermines the fragile beginnings of US and China cooperation over global climate change.

Durban is a crucial starting point for emission reductions – now is key

NewScientist 11, "Dangerous decade: What follows the Durban climate deal", 12-13, http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21278-dangerous-decade-what-follows-the-durban-climate-deal.html
Time is running out. However successful the deal felt early on Sunday, the
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close the ambition gap (see diagram), but nations must act now.

Warming is real, anthropogenic and causes extinction

Flournoy 12 — Citing Feng Hsu, PhD NASA Scientist @ the Goddard Space Flight
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, Springer Briefs in Space Development, Book, p. 10-11
In the Online Journal of Space Communication , Dr. Feng Hsu, a  NASA
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simply too high for us to take any chances" (Hsu 2010 ) 

Public debate is necessary to inform the public about the risks of protectionism

Sungjoon Cho, Assistant Professor of Law, Chicago-Kent College of Law, Illinois Institute of Technology, Doha’s Development, 25 Berkeley J. Int’l L. 165, 2007, LN
In this regard, (public) ignorance is not bliss in the making of
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global tariff wars that contributed to the outbreak of the Second World War.

Domestic

Advantage 2 is Domestic Solar

Solar is approaching grid parity and widespread adoption in the US – the tariff derails that

Jabusch 5/18/12 ~[Garvin Jabusch, cofounder and chief investment officer of Green Alpha Advisors and co-manager of the Green Alpha Next Economy Index. Jabusch was previously Director of Forward Sustainable Investments, a business unit of Forward Management, and Vice President, Strategic Services at Morgan Stanley. "Tariffs on Chinese Solar Are Bad for Us All," http://sierraclub.typepad.com/gaa/2012/05/tariffs-on-chinese-solar-are-bad-for-us-all.html~~]
In addition, tariffs by definition are inflationary. A customer who now has to
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) has been off by as much as 5.8 percent this morning 

Chinese retaliation will further devastate domestic solar

Pierobon 12, 2-29, James, former Chief Energy Writer and Political Correspondent at the Houston Chronicle , "the case against a tariff on imported Chinese solar panels", http://theenergycollective.com/jimpierobon/77861/guest-opinion-jigar-shah-makes-case-against-tariff-imported-chinese-solar-panels
Last October the US subsidiary of German-based SolarWorld, a manufacturer of polysilicon
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is a terrible idea — for American jobs, prosperity and the environment."

Chinese imports are key – the tariff directly raises prices

Berkman et al 12 ~[Dr. Mark P. Berkman, Ph.D. in Public Policy Analysis, expert in applied microeconomics and principal at the Brattle Group; Dr. Lisa J. Cameron, Ph.D. in Economics and Senior Consultant for the Brattle Group; Judy Chang, economist with expertise in the analysis of electricity power markets and principal at the Brattle Group; "The Employment Impacts of Proposed Tariffs on Chinese Manufactured Photovoltaic Cells and Modules," January 30 2012, http://coalition4affordablesolar.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/TBG_Solar-Trade-Impact-Report.pdf~~]
Average module prices in the U.S. are largely determined by Chinese imports
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the imposition of a 50% or 100% tariff on Chinese imports. 

Frequent heat wave blackouts are coming now

Stone 8/8/12 ~[Brian Stone, Assistant Professor in the City and Regional Planning Program at the Georgia Institute of Technology, "Urban Heat Islands and Climate Change: Planning for Extreme Heat in Cities," http://www.epa.gov/hiri/resources/transcripts/8_aug_2012-webcasttranscript-stone.pdf~~]
Most critical is your logical infrastructure. In 2003, the same year as the
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prolonged blackout in the major U.S. cities is certainly increasing.

Solar adoption in the US solves

Perez et al 11 ~[Richard Perez, Research Professor, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, SUNY; Ken Zweibel, director of the GW Solar Institute at George Washington University; Thomas Hoff,  Founder of Clean Power Research and President of its Research and Consulting Group; "Solar power generation in the US: Too expensive, or a bargain?" Energy Policy Volume 39, Issue 11, November 2011, Pages 7290–7297~]
Solar generators, distributed PV in particular, are not available at will,2
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2010), representing a deployment potential of nearly 375 GW in the US.

Blackouts cause disease spread

Kelly and Osterholm 08 ~[Nicholas S. Kelley, Research assistant with The Center for Infectious Disease Research %26 Policy(CIDRAP) Business Source and a doctoral student in the Divison of Environmental Health Sciences at the University of Minnesota’s School of Public Health, and Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research %26 Policy, director of the NIH‐supported Center of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance within CIDRAP, a professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, University of Minnesota. Written in their report "Pandemic Influenza, Electricity, and the Coal Supply Chain" http://www.sovrn.com/PDF/pubs_CIDRAP_Coal_Report.pdf~~]
When one considers public health preparedness, the availability of electricity generally is not considered
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typically operate in the background—unless a breakdown in the infrastructure occurs.

Extinction

Greger 08 – M.D., is Director of Public Health and Animal Agriculture at The Humane Society of the United States (Michael Greger, , Bird Flu: A Virus of Our Own Hatching, http://birdflubook.com/a.php?id=111-http://birdflubook.com/a.php?id=111)
Senate Majority Leader Frist describes the recent slew of emerging diseases in almost biblical terms
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"might easily transmute into a tune whistled whilst passing a graveyard."3154

Natural gas price spikes represent a huge threat to US industry, including fertilizers – supply expansions don’t solve

Stones 9 ~[Edward Stones, Director of Energy Risk at Dow Chemical Company, Dow Chemical Company Statement for the Record at the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources hearing on the Role of Natural Gas in Mitigating Climate Change, October 28 2009, http://www.energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=9b7877b6-e616-76f1-3513-0c3fe4cda514~~]
In 2009, as in 2002, 2004 and 2006, drilling has declined dramatically
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years, and will continue to do so after this and every trough. 

Affordable solar power acts as a hedge against natural gas price spikes – ensures stability for industry

Powerfin Partners 11 ~[Powerfin Partners is a manager of institutional funds for solar projects in North America, with meaningful experience in energy capital markets, legal and regulatory matters, and renewable engineering, "Why the Solar Industry Lacks Pricing Power," December 20, 2011, http://www.powerfinpartners.com/new_site/pdf/Why%20the%20Solar%20Industry%20Lacks%20Pricing%20Power%20122011.pdf~~]
While myriad uncertainties surround the future of natural gas pricing, what is certain is
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a portion of your budget with a long-lived asset like solar.

Spikes are the biggest threat to fertilizer – energy is key

IECA 3 ~[Industrial Energy Consumers of America, nonprofit organization created to promote the interests of manufacturing companies for which the availability, use and cost of energy, power or feedstock play a significant role in their ability to compete, July 22 2003, "IMPACT OF THE U.S. NATURAL GAS CRISIS ON THE NORTH AMERICAN NITROGEN FERTILIZER INDUSTRY," http://www.ieca-us.com/wp-content/uploads/072203Fertilizerbriefing.pdf~~]
High natural gas prices present the most serious threat to the fertilizer sector and to
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must enact policies that stabilize the supply/demand balance for natural gas.

Solves food crises

The Fertilizer Institute 9 ~[Trade Group representing the fertilizer industry, "The U.S. Fertilizer Industry and Climate Change Policy," April 2 2009, http://www.kochfertilizer.com/pdf/TFI2009ClimateChange.pdf~~]
Fertilizer nutrients – nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium – are all naturally occurring elements that
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disaster or substandard world harvest away from a full-scale food crisis.

Extinction

Lugar 2k | Chairman of the Senator Foreign Relations Committee and Member/Former Chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee (Richard, a US Senator from Indiana, is Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and a member and former chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee. "calls for a new green revolution to combat global warming and reduce world instability," pg online @ http://www.unep.org/OurPlanet/imgversn/143/lugar.html)
In a world confronted by global terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East, burgeoning
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in the survival of billions of people and the health of our planet. 

Policy advocacy of solar is key to promote change

Laird 1 (Frank—prof in the school of intl studies at University of Denver, PhD in Political Science from MIT, MA in Physics from University of Edinburgh, "Solar Energy, Technology Policy, and Institutional Values", Cambridge University Press, Print.)
In the last decade numerous scholars have argued for the importance of ideas in shaping
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institutional forces champion them and so use them in the policy system.’