| 09/14/2012 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
1AC – UNI Advantage One: Manufacturing The US economy is improving and building momentum now because of low natural gas prices
Bloomberg 12 – Jack Kaskey, writer for Bloomberg News, February 29th, 2012, "U.S. Economy Strengthens on Gas ’Tailwind,’ Dow CEO Says," html
The U.S. economic recovery is gathering strength as cheaper natural gas drives
AND
rose to the highest in a year, the Conference Board reported yesterday. Specifically, low gas prices are key to manufacturing – they will create 1 million jobs and boost the overall economy
PWC 11 – PwC’s Industrial Products (IP) practice provides financial, operational, and strategic services to global organizations. December 2011, "Shale Gas - A Renaissance in US Manufacturing?"www.pwc.com/en_US/us/industrial-products/assets/pwc-shale-gas-us-manufacturing-renaissance.pdf
The economic environment remains difficult for many US manufacturers, with soft demand and margin
AND
US manufacturing over the long term and create new jobs in the sector. Sustained low gas prices are stabilizing and key to long-term investment
CCES 12 – Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, May 2012, "Natural Gas in the Industrial Sector," pdf
Increased availability and low prices of natural gas have significant implications for domestic manufacturing,
AND
and increased natural gas supplies also have the potential to stabilize prices.22 Manufacturing is key to the economy and competitiveness
Smil 11 – Vaclav Smil is an interfisciplinary researcher at The Breakthrough Institute in the fields of energy, environmental and population change, food production and nutrition, technical innovation, risk assessment, and public policy. He has published more than 30 books and some 400 papers on these topics. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada (Science Academy), the first non-American to receive the American Association for the Advancement of Science Award for Public Understanding of Science and Technology, and in 2010 he was listed by Foreign Policy among the top 100 global thinkers. He has worked as a consultant for many US, EU and international institutions, has been an invited speaker in more than 300 conferences and workshops in the USA, Canada, Europe, Asia and Africa, and has lectured at many universities in North America, Europe and East Asia. "The Manufacturing of Decline," Summer 2011, http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/journal/past-issues/issue-1/the-manufacturing-of-decline/-http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/journal/past-issues/issue-1/the-manufacturing-of-decline/
As befits a large, modern country, America’s manufacturing sector remains very large and
AND
another confirmation of the substantial and realistic opportunities for expanding the sector.15 The US is key to the global economy
Caploe 9 David is the Chief Political Economist at Economy Watch and holds a PhD in International Political Economy from Princeton. April 7, 2009, The Straits Times, "Focus still on America to lead global recovery," http://acalaha.com/STarticle07Apr09.pdf
IN THE aftermath of the G-20 summit, most observers seem to have
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- has cascaded into the worst global economic crisis since the Great Depression. Economic decline leads to global nuclear war
Green and Schrage 9 – Senior Advisor and Japan Chair @ CSIS and Associate Professor @ Georgetown University AND CSIS School Chair in International Business and Former Senior Official with the US Trade Representative’s Office (Michael J. and Steven P., "It’s not just the economy," State Department and Ways %26 Means Committee, Asia Times, 3/26, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/asian_economy/kc26dk01.html-http://www.atimes.com/atimes/asian_economy/kc26dk01.html)
Facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, analysts at the World Bank
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demonstration effect of liberal norms we are urging China to embrace at home. The best statistical support proves – economic decline causes war
Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, "Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises," in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict
AND
such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views. Economic collapse causes Asian instability and war – high probability
Auslin 9 – resident scholar at AEI (Michael "Averting Disaster", The Daily Standard, 2/6, http://www.aei.org/article/100044
As they deal with a collapsing world economy, policymakers in Washington and around the
AND
types of miscalculation and greed that have destroyed international systems in the past. Asia war outweighs – draws in great powers and destroys international stability
Hugh White 8, Professor of Strategic Studies at Australian National University and Visiting Fellow, the Lowy Institute, June 4, 2008, "’Why War in Asia Remains Thinkable’ ," online: http://www.iiss.org/conferences/global-strategic-challenges-as-played-out-in-asia/asias-strategic-challenges-in-search-of-a-common-agenda/conference-papers/fifth-session-conflict-in-asia/why-war-in-asia-remains-thinkable-prof-hugh-white/
But while I agree that war in Asia is unlikely, it does seem to
AND
and their successors have done so much to study, understand and prevent. Low prices are key to the competitiveness of US industry globally
Institute for Energy Research 12 – Institute for Energy Research, April 19th, 2012, "Abundant Natural Gas Means Low Prices, Increased Trade Potential," www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2012/04/19/abundant-natural-gas-means-low-prices-trade-potential/
Natural gas production in the United States is hitting unprecedented highs, storage tanks are
AND
~]¶ Source: Wall Street Journal, April 10, 2012, above.¶ US competitiveness solves great power war
Baru 9Sanjaya Baru is a Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School in Singapore Geopolitical Implications of the Current Global Financial Crisis, Strategic Analysis, Volume 33, Issue 2 March 2009 , pages 163 - 168
Hence, economic policies and performance do have strategic consequences.2 In the modern
AND
sustain economic growth and military power, the classic ’guns versus butter’ dilemma. Competiveness is largest internal link to hegemony
Gelb 10 – Leslie H. Gelb, a former New York Times columnist and senior official in the state
and defense departments, is currently president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, Fashioning a Realistic Strategy for the Twenty-First Century," Fletcher Forum of World Affairs vol.34:2 summer 2010 http://fletcher.tufts.edu/forum/archives/pdfs/34-2pdfs/Gelb.pdf
Power is what it always has been. It is the ability to get someone
AND
last few years has been the perception that our economy is in decline. Hegemony solves nuclear war and extinction
Barnett 11 – Thomas P.M. Barnett is Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis %26 Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, March 7th, 2011, "The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads," http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time of
AND
in all of its forms, deeply embedded in the geometry to come.
Advantage Two: Energy Leverage There’s a large US gas supply now and production is high
Hurdle 8-14 Jon Hurdle, writer for AOL, August 14th, 2012, "What Is Set to Drive Natural Gas Prices Lower?" energy.aol.com/2012/08/14/what-is-set-to-drive-natural-gas-prices-lower/
New evidence on bulging US inventories of natural gas, coupled with abundant supply and
AND
first half of 2012 compared with a year earlier, the EIA said. Scenario 1 is Russia US gas supply is key to prevent Russian energy leverage over Europe
Koven 12 – Colonel Alexander L. Koven, United States Air Force, United States Army War College, January 3rd, 2012, "Under the Yoke: Europe’s Natural Gas Dependency on Russia," pdf%26AD=ADA561551
UNDER THE YOKE: EUROPE’S NATURAL GAS DEPENDENCY ON RUSSIA
Rising shale gas supplies have significantly reduced U.S. requirements for LNG, a move that has already had geopolitical implications. This shift has played a key role in weakening Russia’s ability to wield an ’energy weapon’ over its European customers by offering European customers an alternative supply in the form of LNG displaced from the U.S. market.80 European gas independence from Russia solves Russian aggression, terrorism, and EU relations
Medlock et al. 11 – Dr. Kenneth B. Medlock, Ph.D. in economics, fellow in Energy and Resource Economics at the Baker Institute, and former advisor to the U.S. Department of Energy and the California Energy Commission, AND* Amy Myers Jaffe, graduate from Princeton University, fellow of Energy Studies and director of the Energy Forum at the Baker Institute, and associate director of the Rice Energy Program, AND* Dr. Peter R. Hartley, Ph.D in economics at Rice University, July 2011, "Shale Gas and U.S. National Security," http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-DOEShaleGas-07192011.pdf
The dramatic lessening of Europe’s dependence on Russian gas will likely have considerable geopolitical implications
AND
and other international initiatives that might not have the full support of Russia. Russian aggression causes nuclear war
Blank 9 – Dr. Stephen Blank is a Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March 2009, "Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?" http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf
Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia can then deter regional or intercontinental attacks
AND
perhaps make wars of aggression on their neighbors or their own people.172 There’s a high risk of nuclear terrorism – causes extinction
Hellman 8 ~[Martin E. Hellman, emeritus prof of engineering @ Stanford, "Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence" SPRING 2008 THE BENT OF TAU BETA PI, http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf~~]
The threat of nuclear terrorism looms much larger in the public’s mind than the threat
AND
assume that preventing World War III is a necessity—not an option. Scenario 2 is Iran US gas supply is preventing Iranian gas leverage now – it’s key to international cooperation to curb Iranian influence and solve a nuclear Iran through sanctions
Medlock et al. 11 - Dr. Kenneth B. Medlock, Ph.D. in economics, fellow in Energy and Resource Economics at the Baker Institute, and former advisor to the U.S. Department of Energy and the California Energy Commission, AND* Amy Myers Jaffe, graduate from Princeton University, fellow of Energy Studies and director of the Energy Forum at the Baker Institute, and associate director of the Rice Energy Program, AND* Dr. Peter R. Hartley, Ph.D in economics at Rice University, National Security,
At the present time, economic sanctions against Tehran have been inhibiting natural gas export
AND
—a potential source of tension between the United States and India.30 Iranian influence causes nuclear war
Ben-Meir 7 – Alon Ben-Meir, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, UPI, February 6, 2007, "Realpolitik: Ending Iran’s defiance"
That Iran stands today able to challenge or even defy the United States in every
AND
to warn Iran of the severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program. International cooperation on sanctions is key to preventing nuclearization – it’s effective now
Rubin 12 – Michael Rubin, Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, January 4, 2012, "The West should hand Iran’s leadership a chalice of poison," http://www.aei.org/article/foreign-and-defense-policy/the-west-should-hand-irans-leadership-a-chalice-of-poison/
To relieve economic and military pressure on Iran would be counterproductive. So long as
AND
nearly half its value. Unemployment and inflation are both in double digits. Iranian nuclearization causes rapid global proliferation, nuclear terrorism, and Middle East nuclear war
James M. Lindsay 10, Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations and Ray Takeyh is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, After Iran Gets the Bomb, Foreign Affairs, Mar/Apr2010, Vol. 89, Issue 2
The dangers of Iran’s entry into the nuclear club are well known: emboldened by
AND
from Washington; foes would challenge U.S. policies more aggressively. Proliferation will be fast and destabilizing – guarantees nuclear war
Evans and Kawaguchi 9 (Gareth, Chancellor of the Australian National University, an Honorary Professorial Fellow at the University of Melbourne and President Emeritus of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, and Yoriko Kawaguchi, Member of the House of Councillors for the Liberal Democratic Party since 2005. She was Special Adviser to the Prime Minister of Japan, "Eliminating Nuclear Threats," International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, http://www.icnnd.org/reference/reports/ent/part-ii-3.html-http://www.icnnd.org/reference/reports/ent/part-ii-3.html) 3.1 Ensuring that no new states join the ranks of those already nuclear
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nuclear power centres divided by multiple and cross-cutting sources of conflict.
Plan The United States federal government should lessen restrictions on natural gas energy production in the Environmental Protection Agency’s New Source Performance Standards and National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants Reviews.
Solvency The EPA air emissions restrictions will crush the natural gas industry
ARI 12 – Advanced Resources International Inc. report for the American Petroleum Institute, "Estimate of Impacts of EPA Proposals to Reduce Air Emissions from Hydraulic Fracturing Operations,"www.api.org/~/media/Files/Policy/Hydraulic_Fracturing/NSPS-OG-ARI-Impacts-of-EPA-Air-Rules-Final-Report.ashx
Depending on the REC-Set Use Rate scenario assumed, the following impacts from
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with reduced drilling, oil and gas supply services, and indirect employment. The restrictions will decrease production and increase prices
Meads 12 – Alicia Meads is director of energy and resources policy, National Association of Manufacturers. March 16, 2012, "New Study Shows Proposed Regulations Could Slow Oil, Natural Gas Production"www.shopfloor.org/2012/03/new-study-shows-proposed-regulations-could-slow-oil-natural-gas-production/24350
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations could sharply reduce drilling for natural gas and
AND
they need to comply with the regulations in a cost-effective manner. And, restrictions send a signal of uncertainty to investors
Gerard 12 – Jack Gerard has a degree in political science and a juris doctor from George Washington University, and formerly worked with the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, now he is the head of the American Petroleum Institute, June 19th, 2012, "Supporting Common-Sense Regulation"energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/06/epas-cleanair-rules-defend-del.php
That said, the oil and natural gas industry supports common-sense environmental regulation
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generating the energy we need for better lives now and in the future. This uncertainty causes shortages in future gas supply
Stevens August 2012 – Professor Paul Stevens is Senior Research Fellow for Energy at Chatham
AND
/Research/Energy, Environment and Development/bp0812_stevens.pdf
There is a real danger that investor uncertainty will inhibit investment in future gas supplies. If the shale gas revolution can be continued and replicated this does not matter. Shale gas can provide abundant supplies of cheap natural gas. However, if it disappoints then, as the 2010 report notes, in five to ten years gas markets could face significant shortages as a result of the very long lead times on upstream gas projects. Independently, the regulations destroy independent producers, which are key to the industry
Banerjee 12 – Neela Banerjee, writer for the Los Angeles Times, April 18th, 2012, "New EPA rules target pollution at fracking sites" articles.latimes.com/2012/apr/18/business/la-fi-epa-drilling-20120419
Industry groups, however, complained that the rules were still too onerous, especially
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the economy and the national security has the "potential to be profound." Status quo state regulations are sufficient – the EPA’s emissions restrictions hurt the industry without helping the environment
Loris 8-29– Nicolas D. Loris is the Herbert and Joyce Morgan Fellow in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation, August 29th, 2012, "Hydraulic Fracturing: Critical for Energy Production, Jobs, and Economic Growth," php?article=75622%26pageid=%26pagename=
One of the reasons why hydraulic fracturing has been so successful in promoting oil and
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occurs in an environmentally sensible way. Congress should keep it that way. Natural gas is clean burning and better for the environment
Cathles et al. 12 – Dr. Lawrence M. Cathles has a Ph
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and Anthony Ingraffea" com/content/x001g12t2332462p/
Abstract Natural gas is widely considered to be an environmentally cleaner fuel than coal because
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a GHG footprint that is half and perhaps a third that of coal. |
| 09/16/2012 | Tournament: UNI | Round: Quarters | Opponent: Iowa | Judge:
Plan
The United States federal government should lower restrictions on natural gas production in the Environmental Protection Agency’s New Source Performance Standards and National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants Reviews. Energy dominance allows Russia to thwart NATO
Blank 9 Stephen - Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, September 2009, "Russia’s Energy Weapon and European Security.," www.acus.org/files/StephenBlank-RussiaEnergy.pdf
Similarly abundant evidence exists ... what it might do if it so chose. NATO prevents global nuclear war
Zbigniew Brzezinski 9, former U.S. National Security Advisor, the Robert E. Osgood Professor of American Foreign Policy at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, September/October 2009, "An Agenda for NATO," Foreign Affairs
And yet, it is fair to ask: Is NATO ... threatening the country’s political stability. Natural gas props up Russian authoritarianism
Woehrel 9 Steven - Specialist in European Affairs, Congressional Research Service, September 2, 2009, "Russian Energy Policy Toward NeighboringCountries," pdf
Russian oil and natural gas industries have become key players in the global energy market
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raising the price these countries pay for natural gas to world market prices. Global nuclear war
Goodby 2 (James E., Former Fellow – US Institute of Peace, and Piet Buwalda and Dmitriĭ Trenin, A Strategy for Stable Peace: Toward a Euroatlantic Security Community, p. 27-29)
A decade after the Cold war was solemnly buried; there is still no stable
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factors work toward the restoration of some form of authoritarian and paternalistic rule. |
| 09/22/2012 | Tournament: GSU | Round: 1 | Opponent: | Judge:
Advantage One: Manufacturing The US economy is improving and building momentum now because of low natural gas prices
Bloomberg 12 – Jack Kaskey, writer for Bloomberg News, February 29th, 2012, "U.S. Economy Strengthens on Gas ’Tailwind,’ Dow CEO Says," html
The U.S. economic recovery is gathering strength as cheaper natural gas drives
AND
rose to the highest in a year, the Conference Board reported yesterday. Specifically, low gas prices are key to manufacturing – they will create 1 million jobs and boost the overall economy
PWC 11 – PwC’s Industrial Products (IP) practice provides financial, operational, and strategic services to global organizations. December 2011, "Shale Gas - A Renaissance in US Manufacturing?"www.pwc.com/en_US/us/industrial-products/assets/pwc-shale-gas-us-manufacturing-renaissance.pdf
The economic environment remains difficult for many US manufacturers, with soft demand and margin
AND
US manufacturing over the long term and create new jobs in the sector. Sustained low gas prices are stabilizing and key to long-term investment
CCES 12 – Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, May 2012, "Natural Gas in the Industrial Sector," pdf
Increased availability and low prices of natural gas have significant implications for domestic manufacturing,
AND
and increased natural gas supplies also have the potential to stabilize prices.22 Manufacturing is key to the economy and competitiveness
Smil 11 – Vaclav Smil is an interfisciplinary researcher at The Breakthrough Institute in the fields of energy, environmental and population change, food production and nutrition, technical innovation, risk assessment, and public policy. He has published more than 30 books and some 400 papers on these topics. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada (Science Academy), the first non-American to receive the American Association for the Advancement of Science Award for Public Understanding of Science and Technology, and in 2010 he was listed by Foreign Policy among the top 100 global thinkers. He has worked as a consultant for many US, EU and international institutions, has been an invited speaker in more than 300 conferences and workshops in the USA, Canada, Europe, Asia and Africa, and has lectured at many universities in North America, Europe and East Asia. "The Manufacturing of Decline," Summer 2011, http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/journal/past-issues/issue-1/the-manufacturing-of-decline/-http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/journal/past-issues/issue-1/the-manufacturing-of-decline/
As befits a large, modern country, America’s manufacturing sector remains very large and
AND
another confirmation of the substantial and realistic opportunities for expanding the sector.15 The US is key to the global economy
Caploe 9 David is the Chief Political Economist at Economy Watch and holds a PhD in International Political Economy from Princeton. April 7, 2009, The Straits Times, "Focus still on America to lead global recovery," http://acalaha.com/STarticle07Apr09.pdf
IN THE aftermath of the G-20 summit, most observers seem to have
AND
- has cascaded into the worst global economic crisis since the Great Depression. Economic decline leads to global nuclear war
Green and Schrage 9 – Senior Advisor and Japan Chair @ CSIS and Associate Professor @ Georgetown University AND CSIS School Chair in International Business and Former Senior Official with the US Trade Representative’s Office (Michael J. and Steven P., "It’s not just the economy," State Department and Ways %26 Means Committee, Asia Times, 3/26, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/asian_economy/kc26dk01.html-http://www.atimes.com/atimes/asian_economy/kc26dk01.html)
Facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, analysts at the World Bank
AND
demonstration effect of liberal norms we are urging China to embrace at home. The best statistical support proves – economic decline causes war
Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, "Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises," in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict
AND
such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views. Economic collapse causes Asian instability and war – high probability
Auslin 9 – resident scholar at AEI (Michael "Averting Disaster", The Daily Standard, 2/6, http://www.aei.org/article/100044
As they deal with a collapsing world economy, policymakers in Washington and around the
AND
types of miscalculation and greed that have destroyed international systems in the past. Asia war outweighs – draws in great powers and destroys international stability
White 8 – Hugh White 8, Professor of Strategic Studies at Australian National University and Visiting Fellow, the Lowy Institute, June 4, 2008, "’Why War in Asia Remains Thinkable’ ," online: http://www.iiss.org/conferences/global-strategic-challenges-as-played-out-in-asia/asias-strategic-challenges-in-search-of-a-common-agenda/conference-papers/fifth-session-conflict-in-asia/why-war-in-asia-remains-thinkable-prof-hugh-white/
But while I agree that war in Asia is unlikely, it does seem to
AND
and their successors have done so much to study, understand and prevent. Low prices are key to the competitiveness of US industry globally
Institute for Energy Research 12 – Institute for Energy Research, April 19th, 2012, "Abundant Natural Gas Means Low Prices, Increased Trade Potential," www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2012/04/19/abundant-natural-gas-means-low-prices-trade-potential/
Natural gas production in the United States is hitting unprecedented highs, storage tanks are
AND
~]¶ Source: Wall Street Journal, April 10, 2012, above.¶ US competitiveness solves great power war
Baru 9 – Sanjaya Baru is a Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School in Singapore Geopolitical Implications of the Current Global Financial Crisis, Strategic Analysis, Volume 33, Issue 2 March 2009 , pages 163 - 168
Hence, economic policies and performance do have strategic consequences.2 In the modern
AND
sustain economic growth and military power, the classic ’guns versus butter’ dilemma. Competiveness is largest internal link to hegemony
Gelb 10 – Leslie H. Gelb, a former New York Times columnist and senior official in the state
and defense departments, is currently president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, Fashioning a Realistic Strategy for the Twenty-First Century," Fletcher Forum of World Affairs vol.34:2 summer 2010 http://fletcher.tufts.edu/forum/archives/pdfs/34-2pdfs/Gelb.pdf
Power is what it always has been. It is the ability to get someone
AND
last few years has been the perception that our economy is in decline. Hegemony solves nuclear war and extinction
Barnett 11 – Thomas P.M. Barnett is Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis %26 Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, March 7th, 2011, "The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads," http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time of
AND
in all of its forms, deeply embedded in the geometry to come. Advantage Two: Energy Leverage There’s a large US gas supply now and production is high
Hurdle 8-14 – Jon Hurdle, writer for AOL, August 14th, 2012, "What Is Set to Drive Natural Gas Prices Lower?" energy.aol.com/2012/08/14/what-is-set-to-drive-natural-gas-prices-lower/
New evidence on bulging US inventories of natural gas, coupled with abundant supply and
AND
first half of 2012 compared with a year earlier, the EIA said. Scenario 1 is Russia US gas supply is key to prevent Russian energy leverage over Europe
Koven 12 – Colonel Alexander L. Koven, United States Air Force, United States Army War College, January 3rd, 2012, "Under the Yoke: Europe’s Natural Gas Dependency on Russia," pdf%26AD=ADA561551
UNDER THE YOKE: EUROPE’S NATURAL GAS DEPENDENCY ON RUSSIA
Rising shale gas supplies have significantly reduced U.S. requirements for LNG, a move that has already had geopolitical implications. This shift has played a key role in weakening Russia’s ability to wield an ’energy weapon’ over its European customers by offering European customers an alternative supply in the form of LNG displaced from the U.S. market.80 The plan solves for Russian gas leverage – displaces gas from the US market and encourages European development
Jaffe and O’Sullivan 12 Amy Myers Jaffe is the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow in Energy Studies at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, and Meghan L. O’Sullivan is the Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs at the John F. Kennedy School at Harvard University. "The Geopolitics of Natural Gas," July, http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-HKSGeopoliticsOfNaturalGas-073012.pdf
Knowledge of the shale gas resource is not new. Geologists have known about the
AND
until lower-cost Iraqi gas is able to flow into the line. European gas independence from Russia solves Russian aggression, terrorism, and EU relations
Medlock et al. 11 – Dr. Kenneth B. Medlock, Ph.D. in economics, fellow in Energy and Resource Economics at the Baker Institute, and former advisor to the U.S. Department of Energy and the California Energy Commission, AND* Amy Myers Jaffe, graduate from Princeton University, fellow of Energy Studies and director of the Energy Forum at the Baker Institute, and associate director of the Rice Energy Program, AND* Dr. Peter R. Hartley, Ph.D in economics at Rice University, July 2011, "Shale Gas and U.S. National Security," http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-DOEShaleGas-07192011.pdf
The dramatic lessening of Europe’s dependence on Russian gas will likely have considerable geopolitical implications
AND
and other international initiatives that might not have the full support of Russia. Russian aggression causes nuclear war
Blank 9 – Dr. Stephen Blank is a Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March 2009, "Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?" http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf
Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia can then deter regional or intercontinental attacks
AND
perhaps make wars of aggression on their neighbors or their own people.172 There’s a high risk of nuclear terrorism – causes extinction
Hellman 8 ~[Martin E. Hellman, emeritus prof of engineering @ Stanford, "Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence" SPRING 2008 THE BENT OF TAU BETA PI, http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf~~]
The threat of nuclear terrorism looms much larger in the public’s mind than the threat
AND
assume that preventing World War III is a necessity—not an option. Scenario 2 is Iran US gas supply is preventing Iranian gas leverage now – it’s key to international cooperation to curb Iranian influence and solve a nuclear Iran through sanctions
Medlock et al. 11 - Dr. Kenneth B. Medlock, Ph.D. in economics, fellow in Energy and Resource Economics at the Baker Institute, and former advisor to the U.S. Department of Energy and the California Energy Commission, AND* Amy Myers Jaffe, graduate from Princeton University, fellow of Energy Studies and director of the Energy Forum at the Baker Institute, and associate director of the Rice Energy Program, AND* Dr. Peter R. Hartley, Ph.D in economics at Rice University, National Security,
At the present time, economic sanctions against Tehran have been inhibiting natural gas export
AND
—a potential source of tension between the United States and India.30 Iranian influence causes nuclear war
Ben-Meir 7 – Alon Ben-Meir, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, UPI, February 6, 2007, "Realpolitik: Ending Iran’s defiance"
That Iran stands today able to challenge or even defy the United States in every
AND
to warn Iran of the severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program. International cooperation on sanctions is key to preventing nuclearization – it’s effective now
Rubin 12 – Michael Rubin, Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, January 4, 2012, "The West should hand Iran’s leadership a chalice of poison," http://www.aei.org/article/foreign-and-defense-policy/the-west-should-hand-irans-leadership-a-chalice-of-poison/
To relieve economic and military pressure on Iran would be counterproductive. So long as
AND
nearly half its value. Unemployment and inflation are both in double digits. Iranian nuclearization causes rapid global proliferation, nuclear terrorism, and Middle East nuclear war
Lindsay 10 – James M. Lindsay 10, Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations and Ray Takeyh is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, After Iran Gets the Bomb, Foreign Affairs, Mar/Apr2010, Vol. 89, Issue 2
The dangers of Iran’s entry into the nuclear club are well known: emboldened by
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from Washington; foes would challenge U.S. policies more aggressively. Proliferation will be fast and destabilizing – guarantees nuclear war
Evans and Kawaguchi 9 (Gareth, Chancellor of the Australian National University, an Honorary Professorial Fellow at the University of Melbourne and President Emeritus of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, and Yoriko Kawaguchi, Member of the House of Councillors for the Liberal Democratic Party since 2005. She was Special Adviser to the Prime Minister of Japan, "Eliminating Nuclear Threats," International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, http://www.icnnd.org/reference/reports/ent/part-ii-3.html-http://www.icnnd.org/reference/reports/ent/part-ii-3.html) 3.1 Ensuring that no new states join the ranks of those already nuclear
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nuclear power centres divided by multiple and cross-cutting sources of conflict. Plan The United States federal government should lessen restrictions on natural gas production in the Environmental Protection Agency’s New Source Performance Standards and National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants Reviews. Solvency Even with the 2015 extension, producers do not have the technology to comply with the restrictions
Davidson 12 – Mark Davidson is Editorial Director for Platts’ North American natural gas news
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.amazonaws.com/cuttings/cuttingpdfs/18531/075d95107cdd5ed278a19f158843771f.pdf
Regulators from Western states urged the Environmental Protection Agency on Tuesday to remain flexible with
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take these factors into account more readily than a national-level rule." This will crush the natural gas industry
ARI 12 – Advanced Resources International Inc. report for the American Petroleum Institute, "Estimate of Impacts of EPA Proposals to Reduce Air Emissions from Hydraulic Fracturing Operations, February 2012, "www.api.org/~/media/Files/Policy/Hydraulic_Fracturing/NSPS-OG-ARI-Impacts-of-EPA-Air-Rules-Final-Report.ashx
Depending on the REC-Set Use Rate scenario assumed, the following impacts from
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with reduced drilling, oil and gas supply services, and indirect employment. And, the restrictions send a signal of uncertainty to investors
Gerard 12 – Jack Gerard has a degree in political science and a juris doctor from George Washington University, and formerly worked with the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, now he is the head of the American Petroleum Institute, June 19th, 2012, "Supporting Common-Sense Regulation"energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/06/epas-cleanair-rules-defend-del.php
That said, the oil and natural gas industry supports common-sense environmental regulation
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generating the energy we need for better lives now and in the future. This uncertainty causes shortages in future gas supply
Stevens August 2012 – Professor Paul Stevens is Senior Research Fellow for Energy at Chatham
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/Research/Energy, Environment and Development/bp0812_stevens.pdf
There is a real danger that … very long lead times on upstream gas projects. And independently, the restrictions destroy independent producers, which are key to the industry
Banerjee 12 – Neela Banerjee, writer for the Los Angeles Times, April 18th, 2012, "New EPA rules target pollution at fracking sites" articles.latimes.com/2012/apr/18/business/la-fi-epa-drilling-20120419
The rules are expected to affect about 11,000 new wells annually that undergo
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the economy and the national security has the "potential to be profound." The restrictions will be used to shut down all production if an accident happens
Cappiello 12 – Dina is an Associated Press writer. "EPA sets natural gas pollution standards," April 21, http://theadvocate.com/home/2607063-125/epa-sets-natural-gas-pollution-http://theadvocate.com/home/2607063-125/epa-sets-natural-gas-pollution
Don Briggs, president of the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association, called the regulations
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85 percent of all wells in the United States would be shut down." Status quo state regulations are sufficient – the EPA restrictions tank production and drive up costs
Loris 8-29 – Nicolas D. Loris is the Herbert and Joyce Morgan Fellow in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation, August 29th, 2012, "Hydraulic Fracturing: Critical for Energy Production, Jobs, and Economic Growth," php?article=75622%26pageid=%26pagename=
One of the reasons why hydraulic fracturing has been so successful in promoting oil and
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occurs in an environmentally sensible way. Congress should keep it that way. |
| 09/23/2012 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
The chemical industry is growing now – cheap and abundant gas is key
Nagy-McKenna 12 - Christina Nagy-McKenna has Bachelor degrees in Marketing from CSU Sacramento, and an MBA from Golden Gate University. May 4th, 2012, "U.S. Chemical Companies Benefit from Low Natural Gas Prices,"blog.enerdynamics.com/2012/05/04/u-s-chemical-companies-benefit-from-low-natural-gas-prices/
As natural gas and coal companies watch their stock prices sink due to low natural
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and Lt. Governor David Dewhurst were present at the Dow project announcement. Current low prices are allowing a chemical industry boom, but volatility would wreck the US domestic industry
IHS 11 ~[IHS Global Insight - leading economic analysis and forecasting firm, December 2011, "The Economic and Employment Contributions of Shale Gas in the United States," anga.us/media/235626/shale-gas-economic-impact-dec-2011.pdf~]
The Chemicals Industry¶ With the current trajectory of low and stable prices, the
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of the US industrial sector would be aided by lower natural gas prices. The chemical industry is key to counter bioterrorism
Baum 99 – Baum, Founder of Chemical and Engineering News Washington, 12-6-99 (Rudy, "MILLENNIUM SPECIAL REPORT," C%26EN Washington, Volume 77, Number 49, http://pubs.acs.org/cen/hotarticles/cenear/991206/7749spintro2.html)
Computers and the Internet are clearly one of the driving forces shaping all aspects of
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mysteries and provide for humanity’s basic and not-so-basic needs. Extinction
Ochs 2 ~[Richard, Naturalist – Grand Teton National park with Masters in Natural Resource Management – Rutgers, "Biological Weapons must be abolished immediately" 6-9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html~~] Of all the weapons of mass destruction, the genetically engineered biological weapons, many
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Can we imagine hundreds of such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE. Key to the semiconductor industry
Delpy and Pike 10 – Professor David Delpy FRS, chief executive at Oxford Economics, AND* Dr. Richard Pike, Ph.D. in chemical sciences, September 2010, "The economic benefits of chemistry research to the UK," http://www.rsc.org/images/Economic_Benefits_of_Chemistry_Sep_2010_tcm18-191337.pdf
Electronics – Chemistry research has contributed towards many of the advances in the electronics industry
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as increase the ability to recover and recycle metals from e-waste. Semiconductors are key to US nuclear modernization
Chandratre et al. 7 – V.B. Chandratre et al 7, Menka Tewani, R.S. Shastrakar, V. Shedam,¶ S. K. Kataria and P. K. Mukhopadhyay¶ Electronics Division,¶ Bhabha Atomic Research Centre ¶ "AN APPROACH TO MODERNIZING NUCLEAR¶ INSTRUMENTATION: SILICON-BASED SENSORS,¶ ASIC AND HMC" October, http://www.barc.ernet.in/publications/nl/2007/200710-2.pdf
Modernization of nuclear instrumentation is pursued for realizing the goal of¶ compact portable nuclear
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Rapid¶ developments in semiconductor technology have aided¶ in realizing this concept. Loss of US nuclear primacy causes global nuclear war
Caves 10 – John P. Caves Jr., Senior Research Fellow in the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at the National Defense University, January 2010, "Avoiding a Crisis of Confidence in the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent," Strategic Forum, No. 252
Perceptions of a compromised U.S. nuclear deterrent as described above would have
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scale far more catastrophic than what nuclear-armed terrorists alone could inflict. The U.S. will inevitably fight conventional wars – only nuclear primacy prevents escalation to nuclear war
Lieber and Press 9 - Keir A. Lieber, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame, and Daryl G. Press, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania, November-December 2009, "The Nukes We Need: Preserving the American Deterrent," Foreign Affairs, p. 50-51
This second criticism has merit. Nevertheless, the benefits of maintaining effective counterforce capabilities
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—that the United States’ strategic position abroad rests largely on a bluff. Reviving semiconductors is key to stop EMP attacks
Spring 94 (Baker Spring, Researcher – Heritage Foundation, Backgrounder, http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/BG987.cfm)
In addition to ensuring the reliability of the existing stockpile, testing has other important
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, September 20, 1993, pp. 4, 14-15.) An EMP attack is likely
Cooper and Pfaltzgraff 10 Henry F., Chairman of the Board of Directors of High Frontier and Chairman Emeritus of Applied Research Associates – Empact America, and Robert L., President – Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis and Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of International Security Studies – Tufts University, "A Dangerous Gap in Our Defenses?," National Review Online, 12-14,http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/255192/dangerous-gap-our-defenses-henry-f-cooper-brrobert-l-pfaltzgraff-jr-http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/255192/dangerous-gap-our-defenses-henry-f-cooper-brrobert-l-pfaltzgraff-jr
The 2004 Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from
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possible as an inexpensive adjunct to existing and planned missile-defense programs. Extinction
Pry 10 (Peter Vincent, director of the U.S. Nuclear Strategy Forum, "What America Needs to Know About EMPs" http://wethearmed.com/index.php?topic=8450.0)
EMP is not just a threat to computers and electronic gadgets, but to all
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to the United States and advocated immediate implementation of the EMP Commission’s recommendations. |
| 10/06/2012 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Advantage One: Manufacturing ====The US economy is improving and building momentum now because of low natural gas prices====
Bloomberg 12 – Jack Kaskey, writer for Bloomberg News, February 29th, 2012, "U.S. Economy Strengthens on Gas ’Tailwind,’ Dow CEO Says," www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2012-02-29/u-s-economy-strengthens-on-natural-gas-tailwind-dow-ceo-says.html-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2012-02-29/u-s-economy-strengthens-on-natural-gas-tailwind-dow-ceo-says.html
The U.S. economic recovery is gathering strength as cheaper natural gas drives
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rose to the highest in a year, the Conference Board reported yesterday. ====Specifically, low gas prices are key to the manufacturing and chemical industry – boosts the overall economy====
PWC 11 – PwC’s Industrial Products (IP) practice provides financial, operational, and strategic services to global organizations. December 2011, "Shale Gas - A Renaissance in US Manufacturing?"www.pwc.com/en_US/us/industrial-products/assets/pwc-shale-gas-us-manufacturing-renaissance.pdf
The economic environment remains difficult for many US manufacturers, with soft demand and margin
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US manufacturing over the long term and create new jobs in the sector. Sustained low gas prices are stabilizing and key to long-term investmentCCES 12 – Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, May 2012, "Natural Gas in the Industrial Sector," www.c2es.org/docUploads/natural-gas-industrial-sector.pdf-http://www.c2es.org/docUploads/natural-gas-industrial-sector.pdf
Increased availability and low prices of natural gas have significant implications for domestic manufacturing,
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and increased natural gas supplies also have the potential to stabilize prices.22 Manufacturing is the vital internal link into economic growth and spills over to every other sector – natural gas fracking is vital to sustainabilityLind and Freedman 12 Michael Lind is policy director of New America’s Economic Growth Program and a co-founder of the New America Foundation. Joshua Freedman is a program associate in New America’s Economic Growth Program. "Value Added: America’s Manufacturing Future," April, http://growth.newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/Lind,%20Michael%20and%20Freedman,%20Joshua%20-%20NAF%20-%20Value%20Added%20America%27s%20Manufacturing%20Future.pdf-http://growth.newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/Lind, Michael and Freedman, Joshua - NAF - Value Added America%27s Manufacturing Future.pdf
There is a growing bipartisan consensus on the importance of retaining and strengthening the manufacturing
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service sector depends on software and hardware developed in the manufacturing sector. 13 Caploe 9 David is the Chief Political Economist at Economy Watch and holds a PhD in International Political Economy from Princeton. April 7, 2009, The Straits Times, "Focus still on America to lead global recovery," http://acalaha.com/STarticle07Apr09.pdf
IN THE aftermath of the G-20 summit, most observers seem to have
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- has cascaded into the worst global economic crisis since the Great Depression. Green and Schrage 9 – Senior Advisor and Japan Chair @ CSIS and Associate Professor @ Georgetown University AND CSIS School Chair in International Business and Former Senior Official with the US Trade Representative’s Office (Michael J. and Steven P., "It’s not just the economy," State Department and Ways %26 Means Committee, Asia Times, 3/26, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/asian_economy/kc26dk01.html-http://www.atimes.com/atimes/asian_economy/kc26dk01.html)
Facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, analysts at the World Bank
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demonstration effect of liberal norms we are urging China to embrace at home. Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, "Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises," in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict
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such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views. A competitive chemical industry is key to sustainability – it accesses every impact and solves extinctionICCA 2 – ICCA (International Council of Chemical Associations), June 20, 2002, "SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY," online: http://www.cefic.be/position/icca/pp_ic010.htm
Sustainability in economic terms means the efficient management of scarce resources as well as a
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keeping up international competitiveness as a pre-requisite of sustainable job creation. Baum 99 – Baum, Founder of Chemical and Engineering News Washington, 12-6-99 (Rudy, "MILLENNIUM SPECIAL REPORT," C%26EN Washington, Volume 77, Number 49, http://pubs.acs.org/cen/hotarticles/cenear/991206/7749spintro2.html)
Computers and the Internet are clearly one of the driving forces shaping all aspects of
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mysteries and provide for humanity’s basic and not-so-basic needs. Ochs 2 ~Richard, Naturalist – Grand Teton National park with Masters in Natural Resource Management – Rutgers, "Biological Weapons must be abolished immediately" 6-9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html~~
Of all the weapons of mass destruction, the genetically engineered biological weapons, many
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Can we imagine hundreds of such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE. ====Low prices are key to the competitiveness of US industry globally====
Institute for Energy Research 12 – Institute for Energy Research, April 19th, 2012, "Abundant Natural Gas Means Low Prices, Increased Trade Potential," www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2012/04/19/abundant-natural-gas-means-low-prices-trade-potential/
Natural gas production in the United States is hitting unprecedented highs, storage tanks are
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~¶ Source: Wall Street Journal, April 10, 2012, above.¶ Baru 9 – Sanjaya Baru is a Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School in Singapore Geopolitical Implications of the Current Global Financial Crisis, Strategic Analysis, Volume 33, Issue 2 March 2009 , pages 163 - 168
Hence, economic policies and performance do have strategic consequences.2 In the modern
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sustain economic growth and military power, the classic ’guns versus butter’ dilemma. Gelb 10 – Leslie H. Gelb, a former New York Times columnist and senior official in the state
and defense departments, is currently president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, Fashioning a Realistic Strategy for the Twenty-First Century," Fletcher Forum of World Affairs vol.34:2 summer 2010 http://fletcher.tufts.edu/forum/archives/pdfs/34-2pdfs/Gelb.pdf
Power is what it always has been. It is the ability to get someone
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last few years has been the perception that our economy is in decline. Hegemony solves nuclear war and extinctionBarnett 11 – Thomas P.M. Barnett is Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis %26 Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, March 7th, 2011, "The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads," http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time of
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in all of its forms, deeply embedded in the geometry to come. Advantage Two: Energy Leverage ====There’s a large US gas supply now and production is high====
Hurdle 8-14 – Jon Hurdle, writer for AOL, August 14th, 2012, "What Is Set to Drive Natural Gas Prices Lower?" energy.aol.com/2012/08/14/what-is-set-to-drive-natural-gas-prices-lower/
New evidence on bulging US inventories of natural gas, coupled with abundant supply and
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first half of 2012 compared with a year earlier, the EIA said. ====Scenario 1 is Russia==== ====US gas supply is key to prevent Russian energy leverage over Europe====
Koven 12 – Colonel Alexander L. Koven, United States Air Force, United States Army War College, January 3rd, 2012, "Under the Yoke: Europe’s Natural Gas Dependency on Russia," www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2%26doc=GetTRDoc.pdf%26AD=ADA561551-http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2%26doc=GetTRDoc.pdf%26AD=ADA561551
UNDER THE YOKE: EUROPE’S NATURAL GAS DEPENDENCY ON RUSSIA
Rising shale gas supplies have significantly reduced U.S. requirements for LNG, a move that has already had geopolitical implications. This shift has played a key role in weakening Russia’s ability to wield an ’energy weapon’ over its European customers by offering European customers an alternative supply in the form of LNG displaced from the U.S. market.80 The plan solves for Russian gas leverage – displaces gas from the US market and encourages European developmentJaffe and O’Sullivan 12 Amy Myers Jaffe is the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow in Energy Studies at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, and Meghan L. O’Sullivan is the Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs at the John F. Kennedy School at Harvard University. "The Geopolitics of Natural Gas," July, http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-HKSGeopoliticsOfNaturalGas-073012.pdf
Knowledge of the shale gas resource is not new. Geologists have known about the
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until lower-cost Iraqi gas is able to flow into the line. European gas independence from Russia solves Russian aggression, terrorism, and EU relationsMedlock et al. 11 – Dr. Kenneth B. Medlock, Ph.D. in economics, fellow in Energy and Resource Economics at the Baker Institute, and former advisor to the U.S. Department of Energy and the California Energy Commission, AND* Amy Myers Jaffe, graduate from Princeton University, fellow of Energy Studies and director of the Energy Forum at the Baker Institute, and associate director of the Rice Energy Program, AND* Dr. Peter R. Hartley, Ph.D in economics at Rice University, July 2011, "Shale Gas and U.S. National Security," http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-DOEShaleGas-07192011.pdf
The dramatic lessening of Europe’s dependence on Russian gas will likely have considerable geopolitical implications
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and other international initiatives that might not have the full support of Russia. Blank 9 – Dr. Stephen Blank is a Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March 2009, "Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?" http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf
Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia can then deter regional or intercontinental attacks
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perhaps make wars of aggression on their neighbors or their own people.172 Hellman 8 ~Martin E. Hellman, emeritus prof of engineering @ Stanford, "Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence" SPRING 2008 THE BENT OF TAU BETA PI, http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf~~
The threat of nuclear terrorism looms much larger in the public’s mind than the threat
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assume that preventing World War III is a necessity—not an option. US gas supply is preventing Iranian gas leverage now – it’s key to international cooperation to curb Iranian influence and solve a nuclear Iran through sanctionsMedlock et al. 11 - Dr. Kenneth B. Medlock, Ph.D. in economics, fellow in Energy and Resource Economics at the Baker Institute, and former advisor to the U.S. Department of Energy and the California Energy Commission, AND* Amy Myers Jaffe, graduate from Princeton University, fellow of Energy Studies and director of the Energy Forum at the Baker Institute, and associate director of the Rice Energy Program, AND* Dr. Peter R. Hartley, Ph.D in economics at Rice University, July 2011, "Shale Gas and U.S. National Security," http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-DOEShaleGas-07192011.pdf-C:\Users\Pei\Desktop\ROGERS HOUSE\July 2011, "Shale Gas and U.S. National Security,
At the present time, economic sanctions against Tehran have been inhibiting natural gas export
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—a potential source of tension between the United States and India.30 Ben-Meir 7 – Alon Ben-Meir, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, UPI, February 6, 2007, "Realpolitik: Ending Iran’s defiance"
That Iran stands today able to challenge or even defy the United States in every
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to warn Iran of the severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program. Rubin 12 – Michael Rubin, Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, January 4, 2012, "The West should hand Iran’s leadership a chalice of poison," http://www.aei.org/article/foreign-and-defense-policy/the-west-should-hand-irans-leadership-a-chalice-of-poison/
To relieve economic and military pressure on Iran would be counterproductive. So long as
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nearly half its value. Unemployment and inflation are both in double digits. Iranian nuclearization causes rapid global proliferation, nuclear terrorism, and Middle East nuclear warLindsay 10 – James M. Lindsay 10, Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations and Ray Takeyh is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, After Iran Gets the Bomb, Foreign Affairs, Mar/Apr2010, Vol. 89, Issue 2
The dangers of Iran’s entry into the nuclear club are well known: emboldened by
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from Washington; foes would challenge U.S. policies more aggressively. Proliferation will be fast and destabilizing – guarantees nuclear warEvans and Kawaguchi 9 (Gareth, Chancellor of the Australian National University, an Honorary Professorial Fellow at the University of Melbourne and President Emeritus of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, and Yoriko Kawaguchi, Member of the House of Councillors for the Liberal Democratic Party since 2005. She was Special Adviser to the Prime Minister of Japan, "Eliminating Nuclear Threats," International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, http://www.icnnd.org/reference/reports/ent/part-ii-3.html-http://www.icnnd.org/reference/reports/ent/part-ii-3.html) 3.1 Ensuring that no new states join the ranks of those already nuclear
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nuclear power centres divided by multiple and cross-cutting sources of conflict.
Plan Solvency ====The EPA restrictions will crush the natural gas industry====
ARI 12 – Advanced Resources International Inc. report for the American Petroleum Institute, "Estimate of Impacts of EPA Proposals to Reduce Air Emissions from Hydraulic Fracturing Operations, February 2012, "www.api.org/~/media/Files/Policy/Hydraulic_Fracturing/NSPS-OG-ARI-Impacts-of-EPA-Air-Rules-Final-Report.ashx
Depending on the REC-Set Use Rate scenario assumed, the following impacts from
AND
with reduced drilling, oil and gas supply services, and indirect employment. ====Even with the 2015 extension, producers do not have the technology to comply with the restrictions====
Davidson 12 – Mark Davidson is Editorial Director for Platts’ North American natural gas news
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.amazonaws.com/cuttings/cuttingpdfs/18531/075d95107cdd5ed278a19f158843771f.pdf
Regulators from Western states urged the Environmental Protection Agency on Tuesday to remain flexible with
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take these factors into account more readily than a national-level rule." ====And, the restrictions send a signal of uncertainty to investors====
Gerard 12 – Jack Gerard has a degree in political science and a juris doctor from George Washington University, and formerly worked with the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, now he is the head of the American Petroleum Institute, June 19th, 2012, "Supporting Common-Sense Regulation"energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/06/epas-cleanair-rules-defend-del.php
That said, the oil and natural gas industry supports common-sense environmental regulation
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generating the energy we need for better lives now and in the future. Stevens August 2012 – Professor Paul Stevens is Senior Research Fellow for Energy at Chatham
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/Research/Energy, Environment and Development/bp0812_stevens.pdf
There is a real danger that investor uncertainty will inhibit investment in future gas supplies. If the shale gas revolution can be continued and replicated this does not matter. Shale gas can provide abundant supplies of cheap natural gas. However, if it disappoints then, as the 2010 report notes, in five to ten years gas markets could face significant shortages as a result of the very long lead times on upstream gas projects. And independently, the restrictions destroy independent producers, which are key to the industryBanerjee 12 – Neela Banerjee, writer for the Los Angeles Times, April 18th, 2012, "New EPA rules target pollution at fracking sites" articles.latimes.com/2012/apr/18/business/la-fi-epa-drilling-20120419
The rules are expected to affect about 11,000 new wells annually that undergo
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the economy and the national security has the "potential to be profound." Cappiello 12 – Dina is an Associated Press writer. "EPA sets natural gas pollution standards," April 21, http://theadvocate.com/home/2607063-125/epa-sets-natural-gas-pollution-http://theadvocate.com/home/2607063-125/epa-sets-natural-gas-pollution
Don Briggs, president of the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association, called the regulations
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85 percent of all wells in the United States would be shut down." |
| 10/07/2012 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Decline of US manufacturing triggers violent Chinese rise, US-Sino war, and conflict in the South China SeasMosher 6 Steven is the President of the Population Research Institute. "CHINESE INFLUENCE ON U.S. FOREIGN POLICY THROUGH U.S. EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS, MULTILATERAL ORGANIZATIONS AND CORPORATE AMERICA: HEARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT AND INVESTIGATIONS OF THE COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES," Feb 14, http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/intlrel/hfa26076.000/hfa26076_0f.htm
The ruthless mercantilism practiced by the CCP is thus a form of economic warfare.
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desire to reduce U.S. influence and presence in the region. Unchecked Chinese rise causes great power nuclear war
Walton 7 – C. Dale Walton, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, 2007, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49
Obviously, it is of vital importance to the United States that the PRC does
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a healthy multipolar system that is not marked by close great power alliances. Wittner 11 (Lawrence S. Wittner, Emeritus Professor of History at the State University of New York/Albany, Wittner is the author of eight books, the editor or co-editor of another four, and the author of over 250 published articles and book reviews. From 1984 to 1987, he edited Peace %26 Change, a journal of peace research., 11/28/2011, "Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?", www.huntingtonnews.net/14446-http://www.huntingtonnews.net/14446)
While nuclear weapons exist, there remains a danger that they will be used.
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that of the world, they should be working to encourage these policies. |
| 10/15/2012 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
This doesn't include uniqueness and impact defense. Bloomberg 12 Mark Drajem and Katarzyna Klimasinska. "Safe Gas Fracking Touted by Obama Disputed by Environmentalists," Jan 26, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-26/safe-gas-fracking-touted-by-obama-disputed-by-environmentalists.html
President Barack Obama’s promotion of fracking as a safe way to boost natural gas production
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about gas as if it’s better for the environment, which it’s not." Energy does not influence voting
McEntee 8-15 – Christine is the Executive Director and CEO of the American Geophysical Union. "Science, Politics and Public Opinion," 2012, http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/finding-the-sweet-spot-biparti.php~~%232238190
Lastly, we know that Congress is not likely to make much real progress on either energy or environmental issues until voters demand such action. Research shows that most voters, including Independents in swing states, do not list energy and environmental issues as a major determinant of how they vote, despite their significant impact on local, state and national economies, public health and national security. This needs to change. The plan’s key to re-election through Ohio and Pennsylvania
Snyder 9-3 – Jim Snyder, reporter for Bloomberg, September 3rd, "Ohio’s Gas-Fracking Boom Seen Aiding Obama in Swing State" www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2012-09-04/ohio-s-gas-fracking-boom-seen-aiding-obama-in-swing-state.html-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2012-09-04/ohio-s-gas-fracking-boom-seen-aiding-obama-in-swing-state.html
Today, the energy industry is one of the main engines of job growth and
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its importance and they have not jumped on the anti-fracking bandwagon. The plan causes vote switching to Obama
Oil Daily 12 "US Consumers Warm to Fossil Fuels," 4/11, Lexis
US consumers hold more favorable attitudes toward fossil fuels than they did six months ago
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protect the environment, at 30% compared with 38% last fall." Winners win – the plan key to consolidate Obama’s momentum
Creamer 12 (Robert, political organizer and strategist, "Why GOP Collapse on the Payroll Tax Could be a Turning Point Moment", 1/2, www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/why-gop-collapse-on-the-p_b_1167491.html-http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/why-gop-collapse-on-the-p_b_1167491.html)
Strength and victory are enormous political assets. Going into the New Year, they
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you have them on the run - that’s the time to chase them. Environmentalists are already furious at Obama but will vote for him no matter what – they know Romney will be infinitely worse
Politico 12 – Darren Samuelsohn, writer for Politico, June 18th, 2012, "Greens give Obama wilting enthusiasm," dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=A89E603A-7C5C-4E57-9DB8-FB3AE331776F
Environmentalists are furious at President Barack Obama — he failed on cap and trade,
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the Supreme Court’s landmark 2007 decision allowing the EPA to advance climate regulations. EPA head Jackson empirically gets blamed – she’s a lightning rod
Ward 11 – Kenric Ward, writer for Sunshine State News, June 27th, 2011, "EPA Boss Lisa Jackson in Hot Water Over Job-Killing Policies" www.sunshinestatenews.com/print/3067286-http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/print/3067286
Floridians looking for "hope and change" aren’t necessarily getting what they expected from
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attacked like that from members of the president’s own party," Rooney related. Fracking is key give Obama a lead on the economy – key to reelection
Mead 12 Walter Russell is a Professor of Foreign Affairs at Bard College and Former Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "Will Fracking Save Obama?" 2/8, http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/02/08/will-fracking-save-obama/
Conventional political wisdom holds that Obama’s reelection fate is bound up with the economy.
AND - a flailing, beleaguered President unwittingly saved by the industry he hates.
|
| 10/15/2012 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Gas dependence causes great power resource wars with Russia and ChinaKlare 8 – MICHAEL T. KLARE, Nation defense correspondent %26 professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College, "The New Geopolitics of Energy", May 19, 2008, http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080519/klare
No other major power is capable of matching the United States when it comes to
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in the long run) and a better chance at overcoming global warming. Engdahl 8 – William Engdahl, graduate study in comparative economics at the University of Stockholm %26 frequent Contributor to Centre for Research on Globalization %26 consulting geopolitical risk economist, "Russia Georgia War - Washington Risks Nuclear War by Miscalculation", The Market Oracle, 8/11/08, http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5834.html
The dramatic military attack by the military of the Republic of Georgia on South Ossetia
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the detonator of World War III and a nuclear holocaust of unspeakable horror. |
| 10/15/2012 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: IECA 3 ~Industrial Energy Consumers of America, nonprofit organization created to promote the interests of manufacturing companies for which the availability, use and cost of energy, power or feedstock play a significant role in their ability to compete, July 22 2003, "IMPACT OF THE U.S. NATURAL GAS CRISIS ON THE NORTH AMERICAN NITROGEN FERTILIZER INDUSTRY," http://www.ieca-us.com/wp-content/uploads/072203Fertilizerbriefing.pdf~~
Natural gas is the principal and only economically feasible feedstock raw material used for producing
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within a very short time frame in the fall and spring application seasons. The Fertilizer Institute 9 ~Trade Group representing the fertilizer industry, "The U.S. Fertilizer Industry and Climate Change Policy," April 2 2009, http://www.kochfertilizer.com/pdf/TFI2009ClimateChange.pdf~~
Fertilizer nutrients – nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium – are all naturally occurring elements that
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disaster or substandard world harvest away from a full-scale food crisis. Lugar 2k | Chairman of the Senator Foreign Relations Committee and Member/Former Chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee (Richard, a US Senator from Indiana, is Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and a member and former chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee. "calls for a new green revolution to combat global warming and reduce world instability," pg online @ http://www.unep.org/OurPlanet/imgversn/143/lugar.html)
In a world confronted by global terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East, burgeoning
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in the survival of billions of people and the health of our planet. |
| 10/15/2012 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Asmus 8 (Ronald, Executive Director of the Transatlantic Center at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, in Brussels. From 1997 to 2000, he served as U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs, " Europe’s Eastern Promise; Rethinking NATO and EU Enlargement," Foreign Affairs. New York: Jan/Feb 2008. Vol. 87, Iss. 1; pg. 95)
In light of these new circumstances in Russia, enlargement needs to be rethought from
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from one in which an autocratic, nationalist Russia is on the rise. |
| 10/17/2012 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Reade 8 – LINDA R. READE, District Court Judge, Opinion in UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Plaintiff, vs. RONALD L. COLEMAN, Defendant.No. 07-CR-66-LRRUNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE NORTHERN DISTRICT OF IOWA, CEDAR RAPIDS DIVISION545 F. Supp. 2d 854; 2008 U.S. Dist. LEXIS 26803April 1, 2008, DecidedApril 2, 2008, Filed, lexis
. . . . Although ~§ 802(44)~ does not define what constitutes a "restriction," reference to Webster’s dictionary provides adequate elucidation of its ordinary meaning. In Webster’s, a "restriction" is defined as "a regulation that restricts or restrains," or "a limitation on the use or enjoyment of property or a facility." Webster’s New Collegiate Dictionary 1006 (9th ed. 1991). LVM Institute 96 – Ludwig Von Mises Institute Original Book by Ludwig Von Mises, Austrian Economist in 1940. Evidence is cut from fourth edition copyright Bettina B. Greaves, "Human Action" http://mises.org/pdf/humanaction/pdf/ha_29.pdf
Restriction of production means that the government either forbids or makes more difficult or more
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it is lower. It does not increase production; it curtails it. |
| 10/17/2012 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Moniz et al. 11 – Ernest J. Moniz, Cecil and Ida Green Professor of Physic and Engineering Systems at MIT, and director of the MIT Energy Initiative, AND* Henry D. Jacoby, professor of management at MIT, AND* Anthony J.M. Meggs, engineer at MIT, June 9th, 2011, "The Future of Natural Gas," an interdisciplinary study, web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies/documents/natural-gas-2011/NaturalGas_Report.pdf
While there may be temporary impacts on local resources, the overall impact is small
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energy produced can be used in the irrigation of corn grown for ethanol. ====Companies recycle fracking water – solves shortages====
Loris 8-29 – Nicolas D. Loris is the Herbert and Joyce Morgan Fellow in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation, August 29th, 2012, "Hydraulic Fracturing: Critical for Energy Production, Jobs, and Economic Growth," www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=75622%26pageid=%26pagename-http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=75622%26pageid=%26pagename=
Myth ~%233: Wastewater from hydraulic fracturing is dangerous and unregulated.¶ Fact:
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demand for wastewater treatment has driven the process to be cleaner and cheaper.¶ Allouche 11 – Jeremy Allouche, Institute of Development Studies, UK, January 2011, "The sustainability and resilience of global water and food systems: Political analysis of the interplay between security, resource scarcity, political systems and global tradestar, open," Food Policy, Volume 36, Supplement 1, January 2011, Pages S3-S8, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919210001272
The question of resource scarcity has led to many debates on whether scarcity (whether
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the last two centuries humankind has breached many resource barriers that seemed unchallengeable. Lawson 12 – General Richard Lawson (USAF), May 2012, "Fueling America and the Energy Water Nexus: How and Why it Impacts the Nexus and What Next" www.acus.org/files/EnergyEnvironment/062212_EEP_FuelingAmericaEnergyWaterNexus.pdf
However, there is at present little or no evidence of groundwater contamination from hydraulic
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due to surface operation accidents are a separate issue and are discussed below. |
| 10/17/2012 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Mitchell 10 (Gordon R, Associate Professor and Director of Graduate Studies in the Department of Communication at the University of Pittsburgh, where he also directs the William Pitt Debating Union, "SWITCH-SIDE DEBATING MEETS DEMAND-DRIVEN RHETORIC OF SCIENCE", http://www.pitt.edu/~~gordonm/JPubs/Mitchell2010.pdf-http://www.pitt.edu/~gordonm/JPubs/Mitchell2010.pdf)
An additional dimension of nuance emerging from this avenue of analysis pertains to the precise
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paradigms of policy planning with situated, contingent judgments informed by reflective deliberation. Neoliberalism hasn’t come to grips with the green economy the plan creates—-it is an authentic post-industrialism that boosts quality of life and local communities while furthering sustainable prosperity that prevents extinctionPeters 12 (Michael A, Professor of education at the University of Waikato in New Zealand and Professor emeritus at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, June 10, "Greening the Knowledge Economy: A Critique of Neoliberalism", http://truth-out.org/news/item/9642-greening-the-knowledge-economy-a-critique-of-neoliberalism)
Perhaps most importantly, the neoliberal reading does not recognize the way in which conceptions
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low-carbon economy and forms of economic sustainability based on renewable resources.
Brian Milani, in his "Designing the Green Economy: The Postindustrial Alternative to
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strong connections with both green economics and ecology with a focus on networks.
Ecopolitics must come to terms with the scramble for resources that increasingly dominates the competitive
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whether green capitalism strategies that aim at long-term sustainability are possible.
The energy crisis may be a blessing in disguise for the United States. Jeremy
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contribution to energy efficiency, battery storage and new forms of renewable energy.
At this stage of the world’s development, with space travel, planetary exploration,
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of the great tasks facing education at all levels in the 21st century. Norton 5 (Bryan G, professor of philosophy at the Georgia Institute of Technology, "Sustainability: A Philosophy of Adaptive Ecosystem Management", University of Chicago Press, November 1, 2005, pp. 151-154)
Pragmatists pay attention to the particularities of unique situations. In action-forcing situations
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weak assumptions, and pursuing the most justifiable goals within a particular situation. Bryant 12—professor of philosophy at Collin College (Levi, We’ll Never Do Better Than a Politician: Climate Change and Purity, 5/11/12, http://larvalsubjects.wordpress.com/2012/05/11/well-never-do-better-than-a-politician-climate-change-and-purity/)
However, pointing this out and deriding market based solutions doesn’t get us very far
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there’s no way around this, and we do need to act now. No impact to the environment and no solvencyHolly Doremus 2k Professor of Law at UC Davis, "The Rhetoric and Reality of Nature Protection: Toward a New Discourse," Winter 2000 Washington %26 Lee Law Review 57 Wash %26 Lee L. Rev. 11, lexis Reluctant to concede such losses, tellers of the ecological horror story highlight how close
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material benefits of destructive decisions frequently will exceed their identifiable material costs. n221 We control uniqueness – global war and violence is decreasing because of growthHorgan 9 – JOHN HORGAN 9 is Director of the Center for Science at Stevens Institute of Technology, former senior writer at Scientific American, B.A. from Columbia and an M.S. from Columbia "The End of the Age of War," Dec 7 http://www.newsweek.com/id/225616/page/1
The economic crisis was supposed to increase violence around the world. The truth is
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pageant -contestants—or something like it may finally come to pass. Gartzke 11 – Erik Gartzke is an associate Professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego PhD from Iowa and B.A. from UCSF "SECURITY IN AN INSECURE WORLD" www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/09/erik-gartzke/security-in-an-insecure-world/
Almost as informative as the decline in warfare has been where this decline is occurring
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the consolidating forces of prosperity prevail, that war becomes a durable anachronism. Norbert 1 – NORBERG, SENIOR FELLOW AT THE CATO INSTITUTE, 1 ~JOHAN, IN DEFENSE OF GLOBAL CAPITALISM, 153-54~
That is why I love what is rather barrenly termed "globalization," the process
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and to present my view that borders should be opened and controls dismantled. Owen 2 – David Owen, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton, Millennium Vol 31 No 3 2002 p. 655-7
Commenting on the ’philosophical turn’ in IR, Wæver remarks that ’~a~
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the first and second dangers, and so a potentially vicious circle arises. de Mesquita 11 – Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is Silver Professor of Politics at New York University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution B.A. from Queens, M.A. from Michigan, PhD from Michigan, "FOX-HEDGING OR KNOWING: ONE BIG WAY TO KNOW MANY THINGS" July 18 www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/18/bruce-bueno-de-mesquita/fox-hedging-or-knowing-one-big-way-to-know-many-things/
Good prediction—and this is my belief—comes from dependence on logic and
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moving target because technology, ideas, and subject adaptation will be ongoing. Empirics help observe patterns in the real world and ensure policy relevanceHoughton 8 – David Patrick Houghton 8, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Central Florida, Positivism ’vs’ Postmodernism: Does Epistemology Make a Difference?, International Politics (2008) 45, 115–128
As long ago as 1981, Yale Ferguson and Richard Mansbach effectively laid the influence
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epistemological ones, ought to be what divides the international relations scene today. |
| 10/17/2012 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
====Cheap abundant natural gas is key to a renewable integration and transition – it’s a flexible back-up source====
Doran 8-13 – Kevin Doran is an institute fellow and assistant research professor at the Renewable and Sustainable Energy Institute (RASEI), a joint institute of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the University of Colorado at Boulder AND* Adam Reed is a research associate at RASEI, August 13th, 2012, "Natural Gas and Its RoleIn the U.S.’s Energy Endgame" e360.yale.edu/feature/natural_gas_role_in_us_energy_endgame/2561/
Third, we should take advantage of cheap gas to lower the integration costs of
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many wind farms is lower than the variability of a single wind farm. ====Natural gas is replacing coal, but sustained low prices are key====
Doran 8-13 – Kevin Doran is an institute fellow and assistant research professor at the Renewable and Sustainable Energy Institute (RASEI), a joint institute of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the University of Colorado at Boulder AND* Adam Reed is a research associate at RASEI, August 13th, 2012, "Natural Gas and Its RoleIn the U.S.’s Energy Endgame" e360.yale.edu/feature/natural_gas_role_in_us_energy_endgame/2561/
The recent and staggering abundance of natural gas is, ostensibly, a very good
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predominant choice for new fossil fuel-fired generation even absent this rule." Brown 11 – Lester R. Brown 11, Founder of the Worldwatch Institute and the Earth Policy Institute, June 28, 2011, "The Good News About Coal," online: http://globalgeopolitics.net/wordpress/2011/06/28/op-ed-the-good-news-about-coal/
During the years when governments and the media were focused on preparations for the 2009
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Greenland ice sheet, we probably cannot save civilisation as we know it. |
| 10/17/2012 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Lo 9 - Dr Bobo Lo is Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Reform (CER) in London, Russia’s crisis – what it means for regime stability and Moscow’s relations with the world, http://relooney.fatcow.com/SI_FAO/Russia_7.pdf
There is no doubt that the global financial crisis has had a tremendous physical and
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or as part of a more general movement akin to Ukraine’s Orange Revolution? |
| 10/17/2012 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Baum 99 – Baum, Founder of Chemical and Engineering News Washington, 12-6-99 (Rudy, "MILLENNIUM SPECIAL REPORT," C%26EN Washington, Volume 77, Number 49, http://pubs.acs.org/cen/hotarticles/cenear/991206/7749spintro2.html)
Computers and the Internet are clearly one of the driving forces shaping all aspects of
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mysteries and provide for humanity’s basic and not-so-basic needs. |
| 11/10/2012 | Tournament: Shirley | Round: 1 | Opponent: CSU Chico LP | Judge: Lincoln Garrett
1AC Wake Plan
The United States federal government should lessen restrictions on natural gas production in the Environmental Protection Agency’s New Source Performance Standards and National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants Reviews.
Advantage 1 is Russia
There’s a large natural gas supply now
Buurma 10-25 – Christine Buurma, writer for Businessweek, October 25th, 2012, "Natural Gas Declines After Bigger-Than-Average Supply Increase" www.businessweek.com/printer/articles/351414?type=bloomberg
Natural gas futures dropped …also 9 more than the usual reading.
US gas supply is key to prevent Russian energy leverage over Europe
Koven 12 – Colonel Alexander L. Koven, United States Air Force, United States Army War College, January 3rd, 2012, "Under the Yoke: Europe's Natural Gas Dependency on Russia," www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2anddoc=GetTRDoc.pdfandAD=ADA561551
UNDER THE YOKE: EUROPE'S NATURAL GAS DEPENDENCY ON RUSSIA
Rising shale gas supplies have …U.S. market.80
The plan reduces US gas imports and frees up the global market – allows Europe to lessen its dependence on Russian gas
Jaffe and O’Sullivan 12 – Amy Myers Jaffe is the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow in Energy Studies at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, and Meghan L. O'Sullivan is the Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs at the John F. Kennedy School at Harvard University. “The Geopolitics of Natural Gas,” July, http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-HKSGeopoliticsOfNaturalGas-073012.pdf
Knowledge of the shale gas resource is not new. … until lower-cost Iraqi gas is able to flow into the line.
European gas independence from Russia solves Russian aggression, terrorism, and EU relations
Medlock et al. 11 – Dr. Kenneth B. Medlock, Ph.D. in economics, fellow in Energy and Resource Economics at the Baker Institute, and former advisor to the U.S. Department of Energy and the California Energy Commission, AND* Amy Myers Jaffe, graduate from Princeton University, fellow of Energy Studies and director of the Energy Forum at the Baker Institute, and associate director of the Rice Energy Program, AND* Dr. Peter R. Hartley, Ph.D in economics at Rice University, July 2011, "Shale Gas and U.S. National Security,” http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-DOEShaleGas-07192011.pdf
The dramatic lessening of … have the full support of Russia.
Russian aggression causes nuclear war
Blank 9 – Dr. Stephen Blank is a Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March 2009, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf
Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia … neighbors or their own people.172
There’s a high risk of nuclear terrorism – causes extinction
Hellman 8 Martin E. Hellman, emeritus prof of engineering @ Stanford, “Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence” SPRING 2008 THE BENT OF TAU BETA PI, http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf
The threat of nuclear terrorism looms …necessity—not an option. Energy dominance allows Russia to thwart NATO
Blank 9 Stephen - Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, September 2009, "Russia’s Energy Weapon and European Security.," www.acus.org/files/StephenBlank-RussiaEnergy.pdf
Similarly abundant evidence exists that Moscow … wants and what it might do if it so chose.
NATO prevents global nuclear war
Zbigniew Brzezinski 9, former U.S. National Security Advisor, the Robert E. Osgood Professor of American Foreign Policy at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, September/October 2009, “An Agenda for NATO,” Foreign Affairs
And yet, it is fair to ask: Is NATO living up to its … the country’s political stability. Advantage 2 is Manufacturing
Natural gas prices are low and stable---production is high---that spurs a renaissance in US manufacturing and chemical production
Yergin 10-22 – Daniel is a Pulitzer Prize winning American author, speaker, and economic researcher. Yergin is the co-founder and chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy research consultancy that is now part of IHS Inc.. “Daniel Yergin: The Real Stimulus: Low-Cost Natural Gas,” 2012, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444734804578062331199029850.html
An unconventional oil and gas … years ahead be offset by cheap energy in the U.S.
Low prices are stabilizing and key to long-term investment
CCES 12 – Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, May 2012, "Natural Gas in the Industrial Sector," www.c2es.org/docUploads/natural-gas-industrial-sector.pdf
Increased availability and low …potential to stabilize prices.22
They’re key to manufacturing and the chemical industry
PWC 11 – PwC's Industrial Products (IP) practice provides financial, operational, and strategic services to global organizations. December 2011, "Shale Gas - A Renaissance in US Manufacturing?"www.pwc.com/en_US/us/industrial-products/assets/pwc-shale-gas-us-manufacturing-renaissance.pdf
The economic environment … create new jobs in the sector.
Manufacturing is key to the economy and competitiveness – massive multiplier effects
Boushey 12 – Heather Boushey, Senior Economist, Center for American Progress Action Fund, July 19th, 2012, "Testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Ways and Meanson Tax Reform and the U.S. Manufacturing Sector" waysandmeans.house.gov/uploadedfiles/boushey_testimony.pdf
Having a strong manufacturing … if those ideas originate somewhere else?”34 US competitiveness solves hegemony and great power war
Baru 9 – Sanjaya Baru is a Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School in Singapore Geopolitical Implications of the Current Global Financial Crisis, Strategic Analysis, Volume 33, Issue 2 March 2009 , pages 163 - 168
Hence, economic policies and performance … the classic 'guns versus butter' dilemma. Domestic manufacturing is vital to US military tech innovation – dependence on foreign suppliers guts security
Ettlinger and Gordon 11 – Michael Ettlinger is the Vice President for Economic Policy at American Progress. Kate is a Senior Fellow at American Progress. “The Importance and Promise of American Manufacturing,” April, http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2011/04/pdf/manufacturing.pdf
Beyond innovation and competitiveness, … technology close to home.
Military tech innovation is key to hegemony
Segal 4 – Maurice R. Greenberg Senior Fellow in China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Foreign Affairs, November 2004 - December 2004, Is America Losing Its Edge?, Adam Segal, Pg. 2 Vol. 83 No. 6, Technology Enterprises in China.
The United States' global primacy … entrepreneurship at home.
Heg decline causes nuclear war and extinction
Barnett 11 – Thomas P.M. Barnett is Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis and Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, March 7th, 2011, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
It is worth first examining the larger picture: …, deeply embedded in the geometry to come.
Perception of decline causes US lashout – triggers hegemonic wars
Goldstein 7 Professor of Global Politics and International Relations @ University of Pennsylvania “Power transitions, institutions, and China's rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence,” Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 30, Issue 4 and 5 August 2007, pages 639 – 682
Two closely related, though distinct, theoretical … possible crossover.19 pg. 647-650
The chemical industry is key to solve extinction
Baum 99 – Baum, Founder of Chemical and Engineering News Washington, 12-6-99 (Rudy, “MILLENNIUM SPECIAL REPORT,” CandEN Washington, Volume 77, Number 49, http://pubs.acs.org/cen/hotarticles/cenear/991206/7749spintro2.html)
Computers and the Internet are clearly one of the …. for humanity's basic and not-so-basic needs.
And it’s key to aerospace
Delpy and Pike 10 – Professor David Delpy FRS, chief executive at Oxford Economics, AND* Dr. Richard Pike, Ph.D. in chemical sciences, September 2010, “The economic benefits of chemistry research to the UK,” http://www.rsc.org/images/Economic_Benefits_of_Chemistry_Sep_2010_tcm18-191337.pdf
Aerospace - The modern aerospace … of the aircraft should not be underestimated.
Aerospace solves cyberterrorism
Deloitte 12 | (Deloitte is a consulting and financial advisory service, Report Commissioned by the Aerospace Industries Association, " The Aerospace and Defense Industry in the U.S. A financial and economic impact study," March, http://www.aia-aerospace.org/assets/deloitte_study_2012.pdf)
The world continues to demonstrate how …address these and future threats.
Great power nuclear war
Fritz 9 | Researcher for International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament Jason, researcher for International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, former Army officer and consultant, and has a master of international relations at Bond University, “Hacking Nuclear Command and Control,” July, http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.pdf
This paper will analyse the threat of cyber … and control centres directly.
Aerospace is key to solve cruise missile prolif
Gardner 99 (Lt Col Igor J.P., School of Advanced Airpower Studies, “THEATER LAND ATTACK CRUISE MISSILE DEFENSE: GUARDING THE BACK DOOR”)
LACM = Land Attack Cruise Missile
While few likely regional adversaries currently possess an LACM capability, a serious threat could materialize in a relatively short period of … modernization and integration, and joint training.
Global nuclear war
Telegraph 11
(Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) Reinforced Point Of Contact (RPOC) Meeting, April 10, 2008, Wikileaks Transcript Classified by ISN/MTR Director Pam Durham, February 2, 2011, pg online @ Telegraph)
21. (C) Additionally, many countries … of us for various forms of facilitation.
Aerospace is key to stability in Asia - the impact is nuclear and biological warfare
Khalilzad and Lesser 98 | Counselor @ CSIS, President of Khalilzad Associates, and Former US Ambassador to the UN AND PhD Senior Transatlantic Fellow @ the German Marshall Fund (Zalmay and Ian, "Sources of Conflict in the 21st Century," p.164-165)
The first key implication derived from the … instruments constituting the American response.
Bioweapons cause extinction
Ochs 2 | Past president of the Aberdeen Proving Ground Superfund Citizens Coalition, Member of the Depleted Uranium Task force of the Military Toxics Project, and M of the Chemical Weapons Working Group Richard Ochs, , June 9, 2002, “Biological Weapons Must Be Abolished Immediately,” http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html
Of all the weapons of mass destruction, the … US bioweapons? How slippery is this slope?
Low prices are key to the steel industry
IHS 11 (IHS Global Insight - leading economic analysis and forecasting firm, December 2011, "The Economic and Employment Contributions of Shale Gas in the United States," anga.us/media/235626/shale-gas-economic-impact-dec-2011.pdf)
Energy from electricity or natural gas … could have quite a significant impact on the steel industry.
That’s key to aircraft carriers and the navy
Gibson 11 – Thomas J. Gibson received his law degree from Georgetown University where he graduated magna cum laude. He holds a Master of Marine Affairs degree from the University of Rhode Island and a B.S. in Naval Architecture from the United States Naval Academy. Gibson served as Senior Vice President of Advocacy for the American Chemistry Council. Previously, Gibson served as the Senior Vice President, Government Affairs for the Portland Cement Association. Prior to joining PCA in 2004, Gibson served as Chief of Staff for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2011, "Profile of the American Iron and Steel Institute 2010-2011"www.steel.org//media/Files/AISI/About AISI/Profile Brochure F-singles_CX.pdf
Military uses for steel are extensive. … (MRAP) vehicles use significant amounts of steel.
Carriers prevent rogue generals from using Pakistani nuclear weapons
Gordon et al. 6 – John Gordon, Senior Policy Analyst At RAND Corporation, Ph.D. in public policy, George Mason University; M.A. in international relations, St. Mary's University; M.B.A., Marymount University; B.A. in history, The Citadel, May 9th, 2006, John Gordon IV, Peter A. Wilson, John Birkler, Steven Boraz, Gordon T. Lee, Leveraging America’s Aircraft Carrier Capabilities, http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2006/RAND_MG448.pdf
This vignette examined the possibility that … systems (MANPADS) and other air defenses.
Extinction
Caldicott 2 (Helen Caldicott, Founder, Physicians for Social Responsibility, THE NEW NUCLEAR DANGER, 2002, p. xii)
The use of Pakistani nuclear … most life on earth. Solvency
The EPA restrictions will crush the natural gas industry
ARI 12 – Advanced Resources International Inc. report for the American Petroleum Institute, "Estimate of Impacts of EPA Proposals to Reduce Air Emissions from Hydraulic Fracturing Operations, February 2012, "www.api.org//media/Files/Policy/Hydraulic_Fracturing/NSPS-OG-ARI-Impacts-of-EPA-Air-Rules-Final-Report.ashx
Depending on the REC-Set Use Rate scenario assumed, … with reduced drilling, oil and gas supply services, and indirect employment.
Even with the 2015 extension, producers do not have the technology to comply with the restrictions
Davidson 12 – Mark Davidson is Editorial Director for Platts’ North American natural gas news coverage. Based in Washington, D.C., Mark also has served as Chief Editor of Gas Daily and Managing Editor of Inside FERC’s Gas Market Report. A graduate of the E.W. Scripps School of Journalism at Ohio University, Mark was a general assignment and local government reporter for daily newspapers in Ohio and Virginia for nearly a decade before joining Platts in November 1995. June 20th, 2012, "Flexibility urged on 'green completion' of wells" s3.amazonaws.com/cuttings/cuttingpdfs/18531/075d95107cdd5ed278a19f158843771f.pdf
Regulators from Western states urged the … than a national-level rule.”
And, the restrictions send a signal of uncertainty to investors
Gerard 12 – Jack Gerard has a degree in political science and a juris doctor from George Washington University, and formerly worked with the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, now he is the head of the American Petroleum Institute, June 19th, 2012, "Supporting Common-Sense Regulation"energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/06/epas-cleanair-rules-defend-del.php
That said, the oil and natural gas industry …lives now and in the future.
This uncertainty causes shortages in future gas supply
Stevens August 2012 – Professor Paul Stevens is Senior Research Fellow for Energy at Chatham House and Emeritus Professor at Dundee University. He taught at the American University of Beirut in Lebanon (1973–79); the University of Surrey (1979–93); and as Professor of Petroleum Policy and Economics at CEPMLP, University of Dundee (1993–2008). He is also Consulting Professor at University College London (Australia), August 2012, "The 'Shale Gas Revolution': Developments and Changes,"www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Energy, Environment and Development/bp0812_stevens.pdf
There is a real danger … on upstream gas projects.
And independently, the restrictions destroy independent producers, which are key to the industry
Banerjee 12 – Neela Banerjee, writer for the Los Angeles Times, April 18th, 2012, "New EPA rules target pollution at fracking sites" articles.latimes.com/2012/apr/18/business/la-fi-epa-drilling-20120419
The rules are expected to … national security has the "potential to be profound."
The restrictions will be used to shut down all production if an accident happens
Cappiello 12 – Dina is an Associated Press writer. “EPA sets natural gas pollution standards,” April 21, http://theadvocate.com/home/2607063-125/epa-sets-natural-gas-pollution
Don Briggs, president of the Louisiana Oil … United States would be shut down.”
Status quo state regulations are sufficient – the EPA restrictions tank production and drive up costs
Loris 8-29 – Nicolas D. Loris is the Herbert and Joyce Morgan Fellow in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation, August 29th, 2012, "Hydraulic Fracturing: Critical for Energy Production, Jobs, and Economic Growth," www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=75622andpageid=andpagename=
One of the reasons why hydraulic …Congress should keep it that way. |
| 11/10/2012 | Tournament: Shirley | Round: 1 | Opponent: CSU Chico LP | Judge: Lincoln Garrett
Fiscal Cliff
No Middle East war
Salem 11—Director of the Carnegie Middle East Center. PhD from Harvard (Paul, 'Arab Spring' Has Yet to Alter Region's Strategic Balance, carnegie-mec.org/publications/?fa=43907) Despite their sweeping repercussions for both domestic and international players, …pattern of regional relations. Won’t pass – parties want 2013 deal
Barno 11/7—retired Lieutenant General of the United States Army. Master’s in National Security and Strategic Studies from Georgetown University—Dr. Nora Bensahel is Deputy Director of Studies and a Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security—AND Joel Smith and Jacob Stokes; Research Assistants at the Center for a New American Security (David, Brace Yourself, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/11/07/brace_yourself?page=full)
The national security establishment has focused primarily on the potential cuts to the Pentagon, which would total some $500 billion over the next decade. In their third debate, Mitt Romney warned Barack Obama that such cuts would devastate the military, leading the president to promise: "…nation's revenues and expenditures.
Won’t pass – gridlock
Barno 11/7— retired Lieutenant General of the United States Army. Master’s in National Security and Strategic Studies from Georgetown University—Dr. Nora Bensahel is Deputy Director of Studies and a Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security—AND Joel Smith and Jacob Stokes; Research Assistants at the Center for a New American Security (Brace Yourself, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/11/07/brace_yourself?page=full)
Although structural factors seem …grand bargain in the lame duck.
Political capital not key
Beckmann 11 - Assistant Professor Department of Political Science and Center for the Study of Democracy @ U. C., Irvine
Practicing Presidential Leadership: A Model of Presidents’ Positive Power in U.S. Lawmaking, Journal of Theoretical Politics January 2011 23: 3-20
For political scientists, however, the …to improve his success. (1990, 13).
Winners win
Marshall and Prins 11 (BRYAN W, Miami University and BRANDON C, University of Tennessee and Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”, Sept, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3)
Presidents rely heavily on …at home (Fordham 2002).
Republicans love the plan
Hopf 9-18 – Jim Hopf is a senior nuclear engineer with more than 20 years of experience in shielding and criticality analysis and design for spent fuel dry storage and transportation systems. He has been involved in nuclear advocacy for 10+ years, and is a member of the ANS Public Information Committee. He is a regular contributor to the ANS Nuclear Cafe. September 18th, 2012, "The party platforms on energy-and nuclear"ansnuclearcafe.org/category/nuclear-regulatory-commission/
Republicans on energy¶ The Republican …that state regulations are sufficient.
PNTR thumps the link
Abrams 11-9-12, Jim, AP, “House to take up Russia trade bill next week”, http://seattletimes.com/html/politics/2019644976_apusrussiatrade.html
One of the first actions of the…need to be worked out.
Cyber-security thumps the link
Romm 11-7-12, Tony, Politico, “Obama 2.0 will revitalize tech agenda”, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83491.html
The reelection of President Barack …and other forms of critical infrastructure.
No impact to sequestration
Adams 10/17—Professor of International Relations at the School of International Service, American University and a Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Center. (Gordon, The Fiscal Slide, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/10/17/the_fiscal_slide) Then, there is the matter of procurement and …-hand standpoint that we'll endure that."
No impact---won’t hurt economy
Khimm 10/26 Suzy, Washington Post, "What happens if we go over the fiscal cliff briefly", 2012, www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/26/what-happens-if-we-go-over-the-fiscal-cliff-briefly/
Economists agree that it …the economy will descend back into recession.” |
| 11/10/2012 | Tournament: Shirley | Round: 1 | Opponent: CSU Chico LP | Judge: Lincoln Garrett
2ac --- Memo/Guidance Doc CP
Perm do both – shields the link to politics
Perm do the counterplan – competition must be based on a mandate of the plan, not a likely outcome - Strategic cost/strategic benefit – vague plans mean we cannot shift or further define our plan in the 2AC – DAs solve likely outcome ground
2. Most predictable – based on wording of plan – the aff chooses it and the neg interprets it – it’s key to research of words as defined in law
3. They justify process counterplans – these steal the aff and make offense impossible – destroys clash and switch side debate – independent voting issue
The counterplan is a reduction – restrictions must be enforced – if it’s on paper but not enforced it is NOT a restriction
Berger 1 Justice Opinion, INDUSTRIAL RENTALS, INC., ISAAC BUDOVITCH and FLORENCE BUDOVITCH, Appellants Below, Appellants, v. NEW CASTLE COUNTY BOARD OF ADJUSTMENT and NEW CASTLE COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF LAND USE, Appellees Below, Appellees. No. 233, 2000SUPREME COURT OF DELAWARE776 A.2d 528; 2001 Del. LEXIS 300April 10, 2001, Submitted July 17, 2001, Decided lexis
We disagree. Statutes must be read as a … in the scope of the Budovitches' TIS.
Perm do the plan by enacting the granting of regulatory waivers part of the counterplan granting regulatory waivers that exempt all parties siting, construction, expansion and operation of offshore wind farms under the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. The EPA should summarize the decision in an annual agency publication in the Federal Register.
CP triggers endless litigation---destroys signal and makes rollback likely
David L. Franklin 10, Professor of Law at DePaul, November 2010, “ARTICLE: Legislative Rules, Nonlegislative Rules, and the Perils of the Short Cut,” The Yale Law Journal, 120 Yale L.J. 276, p. lexis
There is perhaps no more vexing conundrum in the …"enshrouded in considerable smog." n3
|
| 11/10/2012 | Tournament: Shirley | Round: 1 | Opponent: CSU Chico LP | Judge: Lincoln Garrett
Permutation do both
We can also do the plan and reject capitalism in other instances – no reason why the plan is the linchpin of capitalism
Capitalism is sustainable – self-correcting
Seabra 12 (Leo, has a background in Communication and Broadcasting and a broad experience which includes activities in Marketing, Advertising, Sales and Public Relations, 2/27, “Capitalism can drive Sustainability and also innovation,” http://seabraaffairs.wordpress.com/2012/02/27/capitalism-can-drive-sustainability-and-also-innovation/)
There are those who say…does himself. It regulates itself.
Capitalism is inevitable
Wood 2 (Ellen M., Ph.D in political science from UCLA, The Origin of Capitalism, pg. 4-6)
These question-begging explanations have their origina in classical political economy and Enlightenment conceptions of progress. Together, they give …the productivity of labor.
Action with policy relevance is key when survival is at stake
Norton 5 (Bryan G, professor of philosophy at the Georgia Institute of Technology, “Sustainability: A Philosophy of Adaptive Ecosystem Management”, University of Chicago Press, November 1, 2005, pp. 151-154)
Pragmatists pay attention ….justifiable goals within a particular situation.
Economic methodology is key to accurate predicitons
Beabout 8 – Gregory R. Beabout 2008 is an adjunct fellow of the Center for Economic Personalism and Associate Professor of Philosophy at Saint Louis University Challenges to Using the Principle of Subsidiarity for Environmental Policy; 5 U. St. Thomas L.J. 210 (2008)
Economics offers many insights into … tradeoffs matter, and we need to pay attention to them.
Perm do the alternative – this is justified by vague alts and floating PIKs, which are both voting issues for being unpredictable and stealing aff ground
Extinction outweighs ethics
Bok 88 (Sissela Bok, Professor of Philosophy @ Brandeis University, 1988, Applied Ethical Theory, ed. Rosenthal and Shehadi, pg. 203)
The same argument can be made for Kant’s …precisely because of the consequences.
The alternative is rooted in the ivory tower – their call to do nothing is elitist
Greaberand Shukaitis 7 – anthropologist and research fellow at Leicester (David Graeber and Stevphen Shukaitis, anthropologist and lecturer at Goldsmiths College, London, former associate prof Anthropology at Yale, and research fellow at the University of Leicester Centre for Philosophy and Political Economy, “Constituent Imagination: Militant Investigations, Collective Theorization,” February 2007, pg. 22-23)
The figures more or less speak for themselves. …figure and Vaneigem does not exist.
Lefty environmental alarmism fails---we are the middle ground
Bradley 3 Robert, president of the Institute for Energy Research in Houston and an adjunct scholar of the Cato Institute. He received the Julian Simon Memorial Award for 2002 and is author, most recently, of Climate Alarmism Reconsidered, published by the Institute of Economic Affairs in London, "Energy Realism Overtaking Energy Alarmism" October 1, news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2003/10/01/energy-realism-overtaking-energy-alarmism?quicktabs_4=1
In the 1970s and 1980s, energy policy…: Is this worth fighting for? |
| 11/10/2012 | Tournament: Shirley | Round: 1 | Opponent: CSU Chico LP | Judge: Lincoln Garrett
We meet---the plan text immediately lessens the restrictions. The restrictions have been passed now and are on the books---companies have to fully comply by 2015. We meet---we make the restrictions lower---that’s all their evidence says
We meet – we reduce restrictions on energy production
Orford 12 – Adam D. Orford, J.D. from Columbia University School of Law, editor in chief of the Columbia Journal of Environmental Law, May 29th, 2012, "EPA To Regulate Air Emissions from Hydraulic Fracturing As Industry Comes Under Scrutiny" www.martenlaw.com/newsletter/20120529-air-emissions-from-hydraulic-fracturing
EPA’s new rules phase out 40 C.F.R … fugitive emissions controls.
Counter-interpretation – restrictions are conditions on action
Plummer 29 J., Court Justice, MAX ZLOZOWER, Respondent, v. SAM LINDENBAUM et al., Appellants Civ. No. 3724COURT OF APPEAL OF CALIFORNIA, THIRD APPELLATE DISTRICT100 Cal. App. 766; 281 P. 102; 1929 Cal. App. LEXIS 404September 26, 1929, Decided, lexis
The word "restriction," … a particular act.
Prefer our interpretation---the aff should be allowed to repeal restrictions that haven’t hit the compliance date yet---otherwise there are no restrictions affs because things like Coal and Natural Gas restrictions don’t have to be complied with yet. We don’t explode limits---we don’t let the aff reduce hypothetical restrictions---they have to been passed already. We solve ground---our evidence says the restrictions already are decreasing production so they can get natural gas DA’s Reasonability---competing interpretations cause a race to the bottom arbitrarily excludes the aff. |
| 11/10/2012 | Tournament: Shirley | Round: 1 | Opponent: CSU Chico LP | Judge: Lincoln Garrett
Air-Emission Rules Bad---Certainty
The air emission rules create regulatory uncertainty and will lead to further regulation
Mack et al. 12 – Joel Mack is a partner in Latham and Watkins' Houston office. Davon Collins is an associate in the firm's New York office. Sara Orr and Ben Lawless* are associates in the Washington, D.C., office. May 11th, 2012, “A 1st for Fracking: EPA’s Air Emissions Regulations,” www.lw.com/thoughtLeadership/a-first-for-fracking
Notably, although the rule does not regulate …in future rulemaking processes.
No regulatory certainty
Osa and Palmer 11 – RICHARD OSA is a Senior Atmospheric Scientist at Stantec Consulting, Inc., and holds the Qualified Environmental Professional certification. Mr. Osa has over 30 years of environmental consulting experience, including Clean Air Act legislative and regulatory analysis. He has managed air quality projects throughout North America, including permitting efforts in most of the US EPA regions. AND* TODD PALMER is a lawyer and technical consultant at Michael Best and Friedrich, a Midwestern law firm. Mr. Palmer has over 19 years of varied industry experience and specifically focused much of his legal career on Clean Air Act matters. December 2011, "Analysis of EPA's proposed clean air restrictions on oil and gas operations," www.worldoil.com/December-2011-Analysis-of-EPAs-proposed-clean-air-restrictions-on-oil-and-gas-operations.html
The proposed rules lack …interconnected, ancillary emission sources.
EPA regulations drive small natural gas companies away
Bloomberg 9-7 – Kasia Klimasinska is a reporter for Bloomberg News, September 7th, 2012, "EOG Says U.S. Fracking Rule to Cost $1.5 Billion a Year," www.businessweek.com/printer/articles/321442?type=bloomberg
The Obama administration’s … through 2011, according to U.S. data.
2AC Renewables DA
Non-unique and no link – production is high now and we just maintain the status quo by reducing restrictions that would cause future reductions
No Air Pollution Impact
No air pollution impact
Schwartz 6 Joel Schwartz is a visiting fellow at AEI and a Professor of Environmental Epidemiology at Harvard. "Getting Real on Air Pollution and Health," June 14, AEI, http://www.aei.org/article/energy-and-the-environment/contaminants/air/getting-real-on-air-pollution-and-health/
The EPA attributes well over 90 percent …occur in the United States. |
| 11/10/2012 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
Same as round 1 |
| 11/11/2012 | Tournament: Wake | Round: 5 | Opponent: | Judge: Advantage 1 is Manufacturing ====Natural gas prices are low now—-aids to economic recovery====
Bloomberg 12 – Jack Kaskey, writer for Bloomberg News, February 29th, 2012, "U.S. Economy Strengthens on Gas ’Tailwind,’ Dow CEO Says," html
The U.S. economic recovery is gathering strength as cheaper natural gas drives
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rose to the highest in a year, the Conference Board reported yesterday. ====Low gas prices help the manufacturing and chemical industry—-boosts the overall economy====
PWC 11 – PwC’s Industrial Products (IP) practice provides financial, operational, and strategic services to global organizations. December 2011, "Shale Gas - A Renaissance in US Manufacturing?"www.pwc.com/en_US/us/industrial-products/assets/pwc-shale-gas-us-manufacturing-renaissance.pdf
The economic environment remains difficult for many US manufacturers, with soft demand and margin
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US manufacturing over the long term and create new jobs in the sector. ====Low prices are an important part of US competitiveness====
Institute for Energy Research 12 – Institute for Energy Research, April 19th, 2012, "Abundant Natural Gas Means Low Prices, Increased Trade Potential," www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2012/04/19/abundant-natural-gas-means-low-prices-trade-potential/
Natural gas production in the United States is hitting unprecedented highs, storage tanks are
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~]¶ Source: Wall Street Journal, April 10, 2012, above.¶ ====Manufacturing contributes to economic growth and competitiveness—-massive multiplier effects—-key to US tech innovation and primacy====
Boushey 12 – Heather Boushey, Senior Economist, Center for American Progress Action Fund, July 19th, 2012, "Testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Ways and Meanson Tax Reform and the U.S. Manufacturing Sector" waysandmeans.house.gov/uploadedfiles/boushey_testimony.pdf
Having a strong manufacturing industry in the United States should be at the top of
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ideas. How will we fare if those ideas originate somewhere else?"34 Caploe 9 David is the Chief Political Economist at Economy Watch and holds a PhD in International Political Economy from Princeton. April 7, 2009, The Straits Times, "Focus still on America to lead global recovery," http://acalaha.com/STarticle07Apr09.pdf
IN THE aftermath of the G-20 summit, most observers seem to have
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- has cascaded into the worst global economic crisis since the Great Depression. Green and Schrage 9 – Senior Advisor and Japan Chair @ CSIS and Associate Professor @ Georgetown University AND CSIS School Chair in International Business and Former Senior Official with the US Trade Representative’s Office (Michael J. and Steven P., "It’s not just the economy," State Department and Ways %26 Means Committee, Asia Times, 3/26, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/asian_economy/kc26dk01.html-http://www.atimes.com/atimes/asian_economy/kc26dk01.html)
Facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, analysts at the World Bank
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demonstration effect of liberal norms we are urging China to embrace at home. Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, "Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises," in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict
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such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views. US competitiveness shores up hegemony and helps prevent a likely great power warBaru 9 – Sanjaya Baru is a Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School in Singapore Geopolitical Implications of the Current Global Financial Crisis, Strategic Analysis, Volume 33, Issue 2 March 2009 , pages 163 - 168
Hence, economic policies and performance do have strategic consequences.2 In the modern
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sustain economic growth and military power, the classic ’guns versus butter’ dilemma. Decline of hegemony increases likelihood of global violence and great power nuclear warBarnett 11 – Thomas P.M. Barnett is Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis %26 Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, March 7th, 2011, "The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads," http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time of
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in all of its forms, deeply embedded in the geometry to come. Empirics and best studies proveWohlforth 8 William, Daniel Webster Professor of Government in the Dartmouth College Department of Government, October, World Politics, "Unipolarity, Status Competition, and Great Power War," www.polisci.wisc.edu/Uploads/Documents/IRC/Wohlforth (2009).pdf)
Despite increasingly compelling findings concerning the importance of status seeking in human behavior, research
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are also consistent with power transition and other rationalist theories of hegemonic war. Daniel W. Drezner 5, professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, May 25, 2005, "GREGG EASTERBROOK, WAR, AND THE DANGERS OF EXTRAPOLATION," online: http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/002087.html
Daily explosions in Iraq, massacres in Sudan, the Koreas staring at each other
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, the prospect of U.S. intervention would be equally daunting. Perception of decline increases likelihood of US lashout and hegemonic warsGoldstein 7 Professor of Global Politics and International Relations @ University of Pennsylvania "Power transitions, institutions, and China’s rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence," Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 30, Issue 4 %26 5 August 2007, pages 639 – 682
Two closely related, though distinct, theoretical arguments focus explicitly on the consequences for
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the period prior to the possible crossover.19 pg. 647-650
Advantage 2 is Iran Medlock et al. 11 - Dr. Kenneth B. Medlock, Ph.D. in economics, fellow in Energy and Resource Economics at the Baker Institute, and former advisor to the U.S. Department of Energy and the California Energy Commission, AND* Amy Myers Jaffe, graduate from Princeton University, fellow of Energy Studies and director of the Energy Forum at the Baker Institute, and associate director of the Rice Energy Program, AND* Dr. Peter R. Hartley, Ph.D in economics at Rice University, National Security,
At the present time, economic sanctions against Tehran have been inhibiting natural gas export
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—a potential source of tension between the United States and India.30 Ben-Meir 7 – Alon Ben-Meir, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, UPI, February 6, 2007, "Realpolitik: Ending Iran’s defiance"
That Iran stands today able to challenge or even defy the United States in every
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to warn Iran of the severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program. Rubin 12 – Michael Rubin, Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, January 4, 2012, "The West should hand Iran’s leadership a chalice of poison," http://www.aei.org/article/foreign-and-defense-policy/the-west-should-hand-irans-leadership-a-chalice-of-poison/
To relieve economic and military pressure on Iran would be counterproductive. So long as
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nearly half its value. Unemployment and inflation are both in double digits. Iranian nuclearization is likely to result in rapid global proliferation, nuclear terrorism, and Middle East nuclear warLindsay 10 – James M. Lindsay 10, Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations and Ray Takeyh is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, After Iran Gets the Bomb, Foreign Affairs, Mar/Apr2010, Vol. 89, Issue 2
The dangers of Iran’s entry into the nuclear club are well known: emboldened by
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from Washington; foes would challenge U.S. policies more aggressively. Jeffrey Goldberg 1-23, Bloomberg View columnist and a national correspondent for the Atlantic, January 23, 2012, "How Iran Could Trigger Accidental Armageddon," online: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-24/how-iran-may-trigger-accidental-armageddon-commentary-by-jeffrey-goldberg.html
One of the arguments often made in favor of bombing Iran to cripple its nuclear program is this: The mullahs in Tehran are madmen who believe it is their consecrated duty to destroy the perfidious Zionist entity (which is to say, Israel) and so are building nuclear weapons to launch at Tel Aviv at the first favorable moment.
It’s beyond a doubt that the Iranian regime would like to bring about the destruction of Israel. However, the mullahs are also cynics and men determined, more than anything, to maintain their hold on absolute power.
Which is why it’s unlikely that they would immediately use their new weapons against Israel. An outright attack on Israel - - a country possessing as many as 200 nuclear weapons and sophisticated delivery systems — would lead to the obliteration of Tehran, the deaths of millions, and the destruction of Iran’s military and industrial capabilities.
The mullahs know this. But here’s the problem: It may not matter. The threat of a deliberate nuclear attack pales in comparison with the chance that a nuclear-armed Iran could accidentally trigger a cataclysmic exchange with Israel.
Warp-Speed Escalation
The experts who study this depressing issue seem to agree that a Middle East in which Iran has four or five nuclear weapons would be dangerously unstable and prone to warp-speed escalation.
Here’s one possible scenario for the not-so-distant future: Hezbollah,
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question of what it will do if Israel refuses to heed its demand.
Dennis Ross, who until recently served as President Barack Obama’s Iran point man on
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chain of events that would be like ’Guns of August’ on steroids."
Imagine that Israel detects a mobilization of Iran’s rocket force or the sudden movement of
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compelled to attack Israel first, knowing that it has no second chance?
Bruce Blair, the co-founder of the nuclear disarmament group Global Zero and an expert on nuclear strategy, told me that in a sudden crisis Iran and Israel might each abandon traditional peacetime safeguards, making an accidental exchange more likely.
"A confrontation that brings the two nuclear-armed states to a boiling point would likely lead them to raise the launch- readiness of their forces — mating warheads to delivery vehicles and preparing to fire on short notice," he said. "Missiles put on hair-trigger alert also obviously increase the danger of their launch and release on false warning of attack — false indications that the other side has initiated an attack."
Then comes the problem of misinterpreted data, Blair said. "Intelligence failures in the midst of a nuclear crisis could readily lead to a false impression that the other side has decided to attack, and induce the other side to launch a preemptive strike."
’Cognitive Bias’
Blair notes that in a crisis it isn’t irrational to expect an attack, and this expectation makes it more likely that a leader will read the worst into incomplete intelligence. "This predisposition is a cognitive bias that increases the danger that one side will jump the gun on the basis of incorrect information," he said.
Ross told me that Iran’s relative proximity to Israel and the total absence of ties
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nearly had a nuclear war. We were much closer than we realized."
The answer to this predicament is to deny Iran nuclear weapons, but not through an attack on its nuclear facilities, at least not now. "The liabilities of preemptive attack on Iran’s nuclear program vastly outweigh the benefits," Blair said. "But certainly Iran’s program must be stopped before it reaches fruition with a nuclear weapons delivery capability."
Ross argues that the Obama administration’s approach — the imposition of steadily more debilitating sanctions — may yet work. There’s a chance, albeit slim, that he may be right: New sanctions are just beginning to bite and, combined with an intensified cyberwar and sabotage efforts, they might prove costly enough to deter Tehran. Proliferation is likely to be fast and destabilizing – making nuclear war likelyEvans and Kawaguchi 9 (Gareth, Chancellor of the Australian National University, an Honorary Professorial Fellow at the University of Melbourne and President Emeritus of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, and Yoriko Kawaguchi, Member of the House of Councillors for the Liberal Democratic Party since 2005. She was Special Adviser to the Prime Minister of Japan, "Eliminating Nuclear Threats," International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, http://www.icnnd.org/reference/reports/ent/part-ii-3.html-http://www.icnnd.org/reference/reports/ent/part-ii-3.html)
3.1 Ensuring that no new states join the ranks of those already nuclear
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nuclear power centres divided by multiple and cross-cutting sources of conflict. Matthew Kroenig 12, Assistant Professor of Government, Georgetown University and Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, "The History of Proliferation Optimism: Does It Have A Future?" Prepared for the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, May 26, 2012, http://www.npolicy.org/article.php?aid=1182%26tid=30-http://www.npolicy.org/article.php?aid=1182%26tid=30
The proliferation optimist position, while having a distinguished pedigree, has several major problems
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prevail, but only at the risk of suffering a possible nuclear exchange. Heisbourg 12 – Francois Heisbourg is the chairman of the council of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy and of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, adviser to the French Foreign Ministry Planning Staff and Member of the International Commission on the Balkans. March 4th, 2012, "NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION – LOOKING BACK, THINKING AHEAD: HOW BAD WOULD THE FURTHER SPREAD OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS BE?" http://www.npolicy.org/article_file/Nuclear_Proliferation_-_Looking_Back_Thinking_Ahead_How_Bad_Would_the_Further_Spread_of_Nuclear_Weapons_Be.pdf
THE PAST IS NOT WHAT IT USED TO BE¶ The problem with this reassuring
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only know what we know, we don’t know what we don’t know. Plan Solvency ====The EPA restrictions are likely to crush the natural gas industry====
ARI 12 – Advanced Resources International Inc. report for the American Petroleum Institute, "Estimate of Impacts of EPA Proposals to Reduce Air Emissions from Hydraulic Fracturing Operations, February 2012, "www.api.org/~/media/Files/Policy/Hydraulic_Fracturing/NSPS-OG-ARI-Impacts-of-EPA-Air-Rules-Final-Report.ashx
Depending on the REC-Set Use Rate scenario assumed, the following impacts from
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with reduced drilling, oil and gas supply services, and indirect employment. ====Even with the 2015 extension, producers do not have the technology to comply with the restrictions====
Davidson 12 – Mark Davidson is Editorial Director for Platts’ North American natural gas news
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.amazonaws.com/cuttings/cuttingpdfs/18531/075d95107cdd5ed278a19f158843771f.pdf
Regulators from Western states urged the Environmental Protection Agency on Tuesday to remain flexible with
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take these factors into account more readily than a national-level rule." ====And, the restrictions send a signal of uncertainty to investors====
Gerard 12 – Jack Gerard has a degree in political science and a juris doctor from George Washington University, and formerly worked with the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, now he is the head of the American Petroleum Institute, June 19th, 2012, "Supporting Common-Sense Regulation"energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/06/epas-cleanair-rules-defend-del.php
That said, the oil and natural gas industry supports common-sense environmental regulation
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generating the energy we need for better lives now and in the future. Stevens August 2012 – Professor Paul Stevens is Senior Research Fellow for Energy at Chatham
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/Research/Energy, Environment and Development/bp0812_stevens.pdf
There is a real danger that investor uncertainty will inhibit investment in future gas supplies. If the shale gas revolution can be continued and replicated this does not matter. Shale gas can provide abundant supplies of cheap natural gas. However, if it disappoints then, as the 2010 report notes, in five to ten years gas markets could face significant shortages as a result of the very long lead times on upstream gas projects. And independently, the restrictions harm independent producers, which are key to the industryBanerjee 12 – Neela Banerjee, writer for the Los Angeles Times, April 18th, 2012, "New EPA rules target pollution at fracking sites" articles.latimes.com/2012/apr/18/business/la-fi-epa-drilling-20120419
The rules are expected to affect about 11,000 new wells annually that undergo
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the economy and the national security has the "potential to be profound." Loris 8-29 – Nicolas D. Loris is the Herbert and Joyce Morgan Fellow in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation, August 29th, 2012, "Hydraulic Fracturing: Critical for Energy Production, Jobs, and Economic Growth," php?article=75622%26pageid=%26pagename=
One of the reasons why hydraulic fracturing has been so successful in promoting oil and
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occurs in an environmentally sensible way. Congress should keep it that way. |
| 11/11/2012 | Tournament: Wake | Round: 7 | Opponent: | Judge: Plan Advantage 1 is Manufacturing ====Natural gas prices are low and stable—-production is high—-that spurs a renaissance in US manufacturing and chemical production====
Yergin 10-22 – Daniel is a Pulitzer Prize winning American author, speaker, and economic researcher. Yergin is the co-founder and chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy research consultancy that is now part of IHS Inc.. "Daniel Yergin: The Real Stimulus: Low-Cost Natural Gas," 2012, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444734804578062331199029850.html
An unconventional oil and gas revolution is under way in the United States, but
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the years ahead be offset by cheap energy in the U.S. Low prices are stabilizing and key to long-term investmentCCES 12 – Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, May 2012, "Natural Gas in the Industrial Sector," pdf
Increased availability and low prices of natural gas have significant implications for domestic manufacturing,
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and increased natural gas supplies also have the potential to stabilize prices.22 ====They’re key to manufacturing and the chemical industry====
PWC 11 – PwC’s Industrial Products (IP) practice provides financial, operational, and strategic services to global organizations. December 2011, "Shale Gas - A Renaissance in US Manufacturing?"www.pwc.com/en_US/us/industrial-products/assets/pwc-shale-gas-us-manufacturing-renaissance.pdf
The economic environment remains difficult for many US manufacturers, with soft demand and margin
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US manufacturing over the long term and create new jobs in the sector. ====Manufacturing is key to the economy and competitiveness – massive multiplier effects====
Boushey 12 – Heather Boushey, Senior Economist, Center for American Progress Action Fund, July 19th, 2012, "Testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Ways and Meanson Tax Reform and the U.S. Manufacturing Sector" waysandmeans.house.gov/uploadedfiles/boushey_testimony.pdf
Having a strong manufacturing industry in the United States should be at the top of
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ideas. How will we fare if those ideas originate somewhere else?"34 US competitiveness solves hegemony and great power warBaru 9 – Sanjaya Baru is a Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School in Singapore Geopolitical Implications of the Current Global Financial Crisis, Strategic Analysis, Volume 33, Issue 2 March 2009 , pages 163 - 168
Hence, economic policies and performance do have strategic consequences.2 In the modern
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sustain economic growth and military power, the classic ’guns versus butter’ dilemma. Ettlinger and Gordon 11 – Michael Ettlinger is the Vice President for Economic Policy at American Progress. Kate is a Senior Fellow at American Progress. "The Importance and Promise of American Manufacturing," April, http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2011/04/pdf/manufacturing.pdf
Beyond innovation and competitiveness, basing manufacturing in the United States also is important to
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obvious is the importance of keeping innovations in military technology close to home. Segal 4 – Maurice R. Greenberg Senior Fellow in China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Foreign Affairs, November 2004 - December 2004, Is America Losing Its Edge?, Adam Segal, Pg. 2 Vol. 83 No. 6, Technology Enterprises in China.
The United States’ global primacy depends in large part on its ability to develop new
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, the United States must get better at fostering technological entrepreneurship at home. Heg decline causes nuclear war and extinctionBarnett 11 – Thomas P.M. Barnett is Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis %26 Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, March 7th, 2011, "The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads," http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time of
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in all of its forms, deeply embedded in the geometry to come. IHS 11 (IHS Global Insight - leading economic analysis and forecasting firm, December 2011, "The Economic and Employment Contributions of Shale Gas in the United States," anga.us/media/235626/shale-gas-economic-impact-dec-2011.pdf)
Energy from electricity or natural gas makes up a higher proportion of the value of
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investments already announced could have quite a significant impact on the steel industry. That’s key to aircraft carriers and the navyGibson 11 – Thomas J. Gibson received his law degree from Georgetown University where
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AISI/About AISI/Profile Brochure F-singles_CX.pdf
Military uses for steel are extensive. Thousands of skilled men and women of the
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resistant ambush-protected (MRAP) vehicles use significant amounts of steel. Gordon et al. 6 – John Gordon, Senior Policy Analyst At RAND Corporation, Ph.D. in public policy, George Mason University; M.A. in international relations, St. Mary’s University; M.B.A., Marymount University; B.A. in history, The Citadel, May 9th, 2006, John Gordon IV, Peter A. Wilson, John Birkler, Steven Boraz, Gordon T. Lee, Leveraging America’s Aircraft Carrier Capabilities, http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2006/RAND_MG448.pdf
This vignette examined the possibility that a radical group within the Pakistani military attempts to
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man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) and other air defenses. Caldicott 2 (Helen Caldicott, Founder, Physicians for Social Responsibility, THE NEW NUCLEAR DANGER, 2002, p. xii)
The use of Pakistani nuclear weapons could trigger a chain reaction. Nuclear-armed India, an ancient enemy, could respond in kind. China, India’s hated foe, could react if India used her nuclear weapons, triggering a nuclear holocaust on the subcontinent. If any of either Russia or America’s 2, 250 strategic weapons on hair-trigger alert were launched either accidentally or purposefully in response, nuclear winter would ensue, meaning the end of most life on earth. Conway et al. 7 ~[James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, "A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower," October, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf~~]
No other disruption is as potentially disastrous to global stability as war among major powers
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and sustain forces, sea control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore. Hilley 8 – Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class (Monique, "Coalition Forces Work To Deter Piracy In Gulf Of Aden", The United States Department of the Navy, 1/17/09, Story Number: NNS090117-01, Online @ http://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=41897)
USS SAN ANTONIO, At sea (NNS) — Combined Task Force (CTF
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to create a lawful maritime order and develop security in the maritime environment. Middleton 8—Roger, consultant reseacher in the Africa Programme at the Chatham House, the Royal Institute of Economic Affairs, "Piracy in Somalia", October, http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Africa/1008piracysomalia.pdf-http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Africa/1008piracysomalia.pdf
Large oil tankers pass through the Gulf of Aden and the danger exists that a
AND - however, the possibility that they could destroy shipping is very real.
Ocean destruction causes extinctionCraig 3 (Robin, Professor of Law at Indiana, "Taking Steps," 34 McGeorge Law Review. 155, Lexis) Biodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine ecosystems also exist, just as they
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- even if a few fishers go out of business as a result. Advantage 2 is Energy Leverage ====There’s a large natural gas supply now====
Buurma 10-25 – Christine Buurma, writer for Businessweek, October 25th, 2012, "Natural Gas Declines After Bigger-Than-Average Supply Increase" com/printer/articles/351414?type=bloomberg
Natural gas futures dropped to a two-week low in New York after a
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Boston may be 52 degrees, also 9 more than the usual reading. ====US gas supply is key to prevent Russian energy leverage over Europe====
Koven 12 – Colonel Alexander L. Koven, United States Air Force, United States Army War College, January 3rd, 2012, "Under the Yoke: Europe’s Natural Gas Dependency on Russia," pdf%26AD=ADA561551
UNDER THE YOKE: EUROPE’S NATURAL GAS DEPENDENCY ON RUSSIA
Rising shale gas supplies have significantly reduced U.S. requirements for LNG, a move that has already had geopolitical implications. This shift has played a key role in weakening Russia’s ability to wield an ’energy weapon’ over its European customers by offering European customers an alternative supply in the form of LNG displaced from the U.S. market.80 The plan reduces US gas imports and frees up the global market – allows Europe to lessen its dependence on Russian gasJaffe %26 O’Sullivan 12 – Amy Myers Jaffe is the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow in Energy Studies at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, and Meghan L. O’Sullivan is the Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs at the John F. Kennedy School at Harvard University. "The Geopolitics of Natural Gas," July, http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-HKSGeopoliticsOfNaturalGas-073012.pdf
Knowledge of the shale gas resource is not new. Geologists have known about the
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until lower-cost Iraqi gas is able to flow into the line. European gas independence from Russia solves Russian aggression, terrorism, and EU relationsMedlock et al. 11 – Dr. Kenneth B. Medlock, Ph.D. in economics, fellow in Energy and Resource Economics at the Baker Institute, and former advisor to the U.S. Department of Energy and the California Energy Commission, AND* Amy Myers Jaffe, graduate from Princeton University, fellow of Energy Studies and director of the Energy Forum at the Baker Institute, and associate director of the Rice Energy Program, AND* Dr. Peter R. Hartley, Ph.D in economics at Rice University, July 2011, "Shale Gas and U.S. National Security," http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-DOEShaleGas-07192011.pdf
The dramatic lessening of Europe’s dependence on Russian gas will likely have considerable geopolitical implications
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and other international initiatives that might not have the full support of Russia. Blank 9 – Dr. Stephen Blank is a Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March 2009, "Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?" http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf
Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia can then deter regional or intercontinental attacks
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perhaps make wars of aggression on their neighbors or their own people.172 Hellman 8 ~[Martin E. Hellman, emeritus prof of engineering @ Stanford, "Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence" SPRING 2008 THE BENT OF TAU BETA PI, http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf~~]
The threat of nuclear terrorism looms much larger in the public’s mind than the threat
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assume that preventing World War III is a necessity—not an option. ====US gas production collapses Gazprom ====
Aslund 9-27 – Anders Åslund has been a senior fellow at the Peterson
AND Gazprom, the natural gas company controlled by the Russian state, is in crisis
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eastern Europe, although oil and gas prices have delinked on the market. ENS 12 – Environment News Service, August 27th, 2012, "Greenpeace Battles Gazprom Over Russia’s Arctic Drill Rig" ens-newswire.com/2012/08/27/greenpeace-battles-gazprom-over-russias-arctic-drill-rig/
Gazprom, the world’s largest natural gas company, has big plans for oil and
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are so eager to take action against Gazprom in the icy Arctic waters. O’Rourke 12 – Ronal O’Rourke, specialist in naval affairs, June 15th, 2012, "Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress" http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41153.pdf
No oil spill is entirely benign. Even a relatively minor spill, depending on
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the species have longer life spans and reproduce at a slower rate.95 CAFF 98 – Biodiversity Working group of the Arctic Council, Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna, September 1998, "Strategic Plan for the Conservation of Arctic Biological Diversity" http://arcticportal.org/uploads/RX/zN/RXzNc4KU8QKfhN_KDw_oQQ/The-StrategicPlanforTheConservofArcticBiolDiv.pdf
The species of the Arctic are important for their own sake and for their value
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these species may require co-operative efforts with non-Arctic countries. The plan prevents Iranian gas leverage– it’s key to international cooperation to curb Iranian influence and solve a nuclear Iran through sanctionsMedlock et al. 11 - Dr. Kenneth B. Medlock, Ph.D. in economics, fellow in Energy and Resource Economics at the Baker Institute, and former advisor to the U.S. Department of Energy and the California Energy Commission, AND* Amy Myers Jaffe, graduate from Princeton University, fellow of Energy Studies and director of the Energy Forum at the Baker Institute, and associate director of the Rice Energy Program, AND* Dr. Peter R. Hartley, Ph.D in economics at Rice University, National Security,
At the present time, economic sanctions against Tehran have been inhibiting natural gas export
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—a potential source of tension between the United States and India.30 Ben-Meir 7 – Alon Ben-Meir, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, UPI, February 6, 2007, "Realpolitik: Ending Iran’s defiance"
That Iran stands today able to challenge or even defy the United States in every
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to warn Iran of the severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program. Rubin 12 – Michael Rubin, Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, January 4, 2012, "The West should hand Iran’s leadership a chalice of poison," http://www.aei.org/article/foreign-and-defense-policy/the-west-should-hand-irans-leadership-a-chalice-of-poison/
To relieve economic and military pressure on Iran would be counterproductive. So long as
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nearly half its value. Unemployment and inflation are both in double digits. Iranian nuclearization causes global proliferation, nuclear terrorism, and Middle East nuclear warLindsay 10 – James M. Lindsay 10, Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations and Ray Takeyh is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, After Iran Gets the Bomb, Foreign Affairs, Mar/Apr2010, Vol. 89, Issue 2
The dangers of Iran’s entry into the nuclear club are well known: emboldened by
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from Washington; foes would challenge U.S. policies more aggressively. Proliferation will be fast and destabilizing – guarantees nuclear warEvans and Kawaguchi 9 (Gareth, Chancellor of the Australian National University, an Honorary Professorial Fellow at the University of Melbourne and President Emeritus of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, and Yoriko Kawaguchi, Member of the House of Councillors for the Liberal Democratic Party since 2005. She was Special Adviser to the Prime Minister of Japan, "Eliminating Nuclear Threats," International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, http://www.icnnd.org/reference/reports/ent/part-ii-3.html-http://www.icnnd.org/reference/reports/ent/part-ii-3.html)
3.1 Ensuring that no new states join the ranks of those already nuclear
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nuclear power centres divided by multiple and cross-cutting sources of conflict. Solvency ====The EPA restrictions will crush the natural gas industry====
ARI 12 – Advanced Resources International Inc. report for the American Petroleum Institute, "Estimate of Impacts of EPA Proposals to Reduce Air Emissions from Hydraulic Fracturing Operations, February 2012, "www.api.org/~/media/Files/Policy/Hydraulic_Fracturing/NSPS-OG-ARI-Impacts-of-EPA-Air-Rules-Final-Report.ashx
Depending on the REC-Set Use Rate scenario assumed, the following impacts from
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with reduced drilling, oil and gas supply services, and indirect employment. ====Even with the 2015 extension, producers do not have the technology to comply with the restrictions====
Davidson 12 – Mark Davidson is Editorial Director for Platts’ North American natural gas news
AND
.amazonaws.com/cuttings/cuttingpdfs/18531/075d95107cdd5ed278a19f158843771f.pdf
Regulators from Western states urged the Environmental Protection Agency on Tuesday to remain flexible with
AND
take these factors into account more readily than a national-level rule." ====And, the restrictions send a signal of uncertainty to investors====
Gerard 12 – Jack Gerard has a degree in political science and a juris doctor from George Washington University, and formerly worked with the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, now he is the head of the American Petroleum Institute, June 19th, 2012, "Supporting Common-Sense Regulation"energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/06/epas-cleanair-rules-defend-del.php
That said, the oil and natural gas industry supports common-sense environmental regulation
AND
generating the energy we need for better lives now and in the future. Stevens August 2012 – Professor Paul Stevens is Senior Research Fellow for Energy at Chatham
AND
/Research/Energy, Environment and Development/bp0812_stevens.pdf
There is a real danger that investor uncertainty will inhibit investment in future gas supplies. If the shale gas revolution can be continued and replicated this does not matter. Shale gas can provide abundant supplies of cheap natural gas. However, if it disappoints then, as the 2010 report notes, in five to ten years gas markets could face significant shortages as a result of the very long lead times on upstream gas projects. And independently, the restrictions destroy independent producers, which are key to the industryBanerjee 12 – Neela Banerjee, writer for the Los Angeles Times, April 18th, 2012, "New EPA rules target pollution at fracking sites" articles.latimes.com/2012/apr/18/business/la-fi-epa-drilling-20120419
The rules are expected to affect about 11,000 new wells annually that undergo
AND
the economy and the national security has the "potential to be profound." Cappiello 12 – Dina is an Associated Press writer. "EPA sets natural gas pollution standards," April 21, http://theadvocate.com/home/2607063-125/epa-sets-natural-gas-pollution-http://theadvocate.com/home/2607063-125/epa-sets-natural-gas-pollution
Don Briggs, president of the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association, called the regulations
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85 percent of all wells in the United States would be shut down." Status quo state regulations are sufficient – the EPA restrictions tank production and drive up costsLoris 8-29 – Nicolas D. Loris is the Herbert and Joyce Morgan Fellow in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation, August 29th, 2012, "Hydraulic Fracturing: Critical for Energy Production, Jobs, and Economic Growth," php?article=75622%26pageid=%26pagename=
One of the reasons why hydraulic fracturing has been so successful in promoting oil and
AND
occurs in an environmentally sensible way. Congress should keep it that way. |
| 11/14/2012 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
To make everything easier to understand, I've uploaded a doc with the latest version of all our advantages and with each scenario that we have read independently labeled. This should make preround disclosure easier for all of us. It's the doc called "Northwestern-McCarty-Pei-1AC Disclosure-Post-Wake-Round" |
| 01/03/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
Plan The United States federal government should reduce construction and annual licensing fee restrictions in the United States that prevent expansion of small modular nuclear reactors.Contention One is Warming Shellenberger 12 – et al and Ted Nordhaus—co-founders of American Environics and the Breakthrough Institute a think tank that works on energy and climate change – AND – Jesse Jenkins-Director of Energy and Climate Policy, the Breakthrough Institute (Michael, Why We Need Radical Innovation to Make New Nuclear Energy Cheap, 9/11, thebreakthrough.org/index.php/programs/energy-and-climate/new-nukes/)
Arguably, the biggest impact of Fukushima on the nuclear debate, ironically, has
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than developing the nuclear technologies we will need to get that job done. Nuclear’s critical to displace coal and stop catastrophic climate changeMoore 4—co-founder of Greenpeace, is chairman and chief scientist of Greenspirit Strategies Ltd. (Patrick, Going Nuclear, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/14/AR2006041401209.html-http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/14/AR2006041401209.html)
In the early 1970s when I helped found Greenpeace, I believed that nuclear energy
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gas emissions. Every responsible environmentalist should support a move in that direction. Loris 11 Nicolas D, Research Associate in the Roe Institute, Jack Spencer – Research Fellow in Nuclear Energy in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies, Currently is The Heritage Foundation’s senior research fellow in nuclear energy policy, Previously worked on commercial, civilian and military components of nuclear energy at the Babcock %26 Wilcox Companies, Holds a bachelor’s degree in international politics from Frostburg State University and a master’s degree from the University of Limerick, "A Big Future for Small Nuclear Reactors?", February 2, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/02/a-big-future-for-small-nuclear-reactors
Abstract: More and more companies—in the U.S. and abroad
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Congress should demand that these issues be resolved by the end of 2011. SMRs can reprocess and solve wasteBiello 12 David, March 27, "Small Reactors Make a Bid to Revive Nuclear Power", www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=small-reactors-bid-to-revive-nuclear-power
Alternative fuel?¶ Small modular reactors may help with two of the biggest challenges facing
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signed memorandums of understanding to host prototypes of the NuScale and Holtech reactors. SMRs are feasible, safer and solve other nuclear downsidesRingle 10 John, Professor Emeritus of Nuclear Engineering at Oregon State University, "Reintroduction of reactors in US a major win", November 13, robertmayer.wordpress.com/2010/11/21/reintroduction-of-reactors-in-us-a-major-win/
Small nuclear reactors will probably be the mechanism that ushers in nuclear power’s renaissance in
AND
no scenario in which a loss-of-coolant accident could occur. Scientific consensus concludes warming is real, anthropogenic, and will be catastrophic if left uncheckedFlournoy 12 – Dan Flournoy, PhD and MA from the University of Texas, Former Dean of the University College at Ohio University, Former Associate Dean at State University of New York and Case Institute of Technology, Project Manager for University/Industry Experiments for the NASA ACTS Satellite, Currently Professor of Telecommunications at Scripps College of Communications @ Ohio University, January 2012, "Solar Power Satellites," Springer Briefs in Space Development
In the Online Journal of Space Communication , Dr. Feng Hsu, a NASA
AND
our Sun" (Hsu 2010 ) (Fig . 2.1 ). Nuccitelli 12 – Dana, environmental scientist at a private environmental consulting firm in Sacramento and has a Bachelor’s Degree in astrophysics from the University of California at Berkeley, and a Master’s Degree in physics from the University of California at Davis, 2012, "Realistically What Might The Future Climate Look Like?", http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/09/01/784931/realistically-what-might-the-future-climate-look-like/
This is Why Reducing Emissions is Critical¶ We’re not yet committed to surpassing 2
AND
Earth than today’s, but we still can and must limit the damage.
Contention Two is Advocacy Debating energy policy joins members of different fields and philosophies to create a consciousness shift towards sustainable environmental policy – how students are trained matters immensely to public policyCrist 4 (Eileen, Professor at Virginia Tech in the Department of Science and Technology, "Against the social construction of nature and wilderness", Environmental Ethics 26;1, p 13-6, http://www.sts.vt.edu/faculty/crist/againstsocialconstruction.pdf)
Yet, constructivist analyses of "nature" favor remaining in the comfort zone of
AND
the world at an hour that is pressingly calling us to change it. Switch side debate empirically inculcates portable skills that lead to better energy policy – it gives voice to buried arguments and challenges bias and institutional affiliationsMitchell 10 (Gordon R, Associate Professor and Director of Graduate Studies in the Department of Communication at the University of Pittsburgh, where he also directs the William Pitt Debating Union, "SWITCH-SIDE DEBATING MEETS DEMAND-DRIVEN RHETORIC OF SCIENCE", http://www.pitt.edu/~gordonm/JPubs/Mitchell2010.pdf-http://www.pitt.edu/gordonm/JPubs/Mitchell2010.pdf)
An additional dimension of nuance emerging from this avenue of analysis pertains to the precise
AND
paradigms of policy planning with situated, contingent judgments informed by reflective deliberation. Switch side debate over energy policy is a reflexive forum that facilitates effective decision-making and deliberationMitchell 10 (Gordon R, Associate Professor and Director of Graduate Studies in the Department of Communication at the University of Pittsburgh, where he also directs the William Pitt Debating Union, "SWITCH-SIDE DEBATING MEETS DEMAND-DRIVEN RHETORIC OF SCIENCE", http://www.pitt.edu/~gordonm/JPubs/Mitchell2010.pdf-http://www.pitt.edu/gordonm/JPubs/Mitchell2010.pdf)
Yet the picture grows more complex when one considers what is happening over at the
AND
where debating exercises are designed to facilitate, not frustrate, deliberative goals. Smith 10 Brendan, co-founder of Labor Network for Sustainability, 11-23, "Fighting Doom: The New Politics of Climate Change," Common Dreams, http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/11/23-1
I admit I have arrived late to the party. Only recently have I begun
AND
said to me, "God help us, I hope you’re right." Bryant 12—professor of philosophy at Collin College (Levi, We’ll Never Do Better Than a Politician: Climate Change and Purity, 5/11/12, http://larvalsubjects.wordpress.com/2012/05/11/well-never-do-better-than-a-politician-climate-change-and-purity/)
However, pointing this out and deriding market based solutions doesn’t get us very far
AND
there’s no way around this, and we do need to act now. The discourse of environmental action must be attached to the state garner public support and lead to policy action~[Note: EM = ecological modernization~]
Doran and Barry 6 – worked at all levels in the environment and sustainable development policy arena - at the United Nations, at the Northern Ireland Assembly and Dáil Éireann, and in the Irish NGO sector. PhD—AND— Reader in Politics, Queen’s University School of Politics, International Studies, and Philosophy. PhD Glasgow (Peter and John, Refining Green Political Economy: From Ecological Modernisation to Economic Security and Sufficiency, Analyse %26 Kritik 28/2006, p. 250–275, http://www.analyse-und-kritik.net/2006-2/AK_Barry_Doran_2006.pdf)
Viewed in isolation EM can be painted as a reformist and limited strategy for achieving
AND
’greenprint’ of an abstract and utopian vision of the ’sustainable society’. The state is an inevitable and indispensable part of the solution to warmingEckersley 4 Robyn, Reader/Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Melbourne, "The Green State: Rethinking Democracy and Sovereignty", MIT Press, 2004, Google Books, pp. 3-8
While acknowledging the basis for this antipathy toward the nation- state, and the
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at least as a potentially more significant ally in the green cause.17 Simulation and institutional deliberation motivate effective responses to climate risksMarx et al. 7 (Sabine M, Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) @ Columbia University, Elke U. Weber, Graduate School of Business and Department of Psychology @ Columbia University, Benjamin S. Orlovea, Department of Environmental Science and Policy @ University of California Davis, Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, David H. Krantz, Department of Psychology @ Columbia University, Carla Roncolia, South East Climate Consortium (SECC), Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering @ University of Georgia and Jennifer Phillips, Bard Centre for Environmental Policy @ Bard College, "Communication and mental processes: Experiential and analytic processing of uncertain climate information", 2007, http://climate.columbia.edu/sitefiles/file/Marx_GEC_2007.pdf)
Based on the observation that experiential and analytic processing systems compete and that personal experience
AND
engage both systems in the process of individual and group decision-making. Hutcheon 93—former prof of sociology of education at U Regina and U British Columbia. Former research advisor to the Health Promotion Branch of the Canadian Department of Health and Welfare and as a director of the Vanier Institute of the Family. Phd in sociology, began at Yale and finished at U Queensland. (Pat, A Critique of "Biology as Ideology: The Doctrine of DNA", http://www.humanists.net/pdhutcheon/humanist%20articles/lewontn.htm)
The introductory lecture in this series articulated the increasingly popular "postmodernist" claim that
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mean failure, in that the theory itself has altered in the process. Forecasting of future events helps us plan for the future through risk management – this improves both personal and public policiesCochrane 11 (John H. Cochrane is a Professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and a contributor to Business Class "IN DEFENSE OF THE HEDGEHOGS" July 15 www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/15/john-h-cochrane/in-defense-of-the-hedgehogs/)
Risk Management Rather than Forecast-and-Plan¶ The answer is to change
AND
contingency plans, both personal and public policies might be a lot better. |
| 01/03/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Plan Advantage 1 is Russia ====There’s a large natural gas supply now====
Buurma 10-25 – Christine Buurma, writer for Businessweek, October 25th, 2012, "Natural Gas Declines After Bigger-Than-Average Supply Increase" com/printer/articles/351414?type=bloomberg
Natural gas futures dropped to a two-week low in New York after a
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Boston may be 52 degrees, also 9 more than the usual reading. ====US gas supply is key to prevent Russian energy leverage over Europe====
Koven 12 – Colonel Alexander L. Koven, United States Air Force, United States Army War College, January 3rd, 2012, "Under the Yoke: Europe’s Natural Gas Dependency on Russia," pdf%26AD=ADA561551
UNDER THE YOKE: EUROPE’S NATURAL GAS DEPENDENCY ON RUSSIA
Rising shale gas supplies have significantly reduced U.S. requirements for LNG, a move that has already had geopolitical implications. This shift has played a key role in weakening Russia’s ability to wield an ’energy weapon’ over its European customers by offering European customers an alternative supply in the form of LNG displaced from the U.S. market.80 The plan reduces US gas imports and frees up the global market – allows Europe to lessen its dependence on Russian gasJaffe %26 O’Sullivan 12 – Amy Myers Jaffe is the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow in Energy Studies at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, and Meghan L. O’Sullivan is the Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs at the John F. Kennedy School at Harvard University. "The Geopolitics of Natural Gas," July, http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-HKSGeopoliticsOfNaturalGas-073012.pdf
Knowledge of the shale gas resource is not new. Geologists have known about the
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until lower-cost Iraqi gas is able to flow into the line. European gas independence from Russia solves Russian aggression, terrorism, and EU relationsMedlock et al. 11 – Dr. Kenneth B. Medlock, Ph.D. in economics, fellow in Energy and Resource Economics at the Baker Institute, and former advisor to the U.S. Department of Energy and the California Energy Commission, AND* Amy Myers Jaffe, graduate from Princeton University, fellow of Energy Studies and director of the Energy Forum at the Baker Institute, and associate director of the Rice Energy Program, AND* Dr. Peter R. Hartley, Ph.D in economics at Rice University, July 2011, "Shale Gas and U.S. National Security," http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-DOEShaleGas-07192011.pdf
The dramatic lessening of Europe’s dependence on Russian gas will likely have considerable geopolitical implications
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and other international initiatives that might not have the full support of Russia. Blank 9 – Dr. Stephen Blank is a Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March 2009, "Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?" http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf
Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia can then deter regional or intercontinental attacks
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perhaps make wars of aggression on their neighbors or their own people.172 Hellman 8 ~[Martin E. Hellman, emeritus prof of engineering @ Stanford, "Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence" SPRING 2008 THE BENT OF TAU BETA PI, http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf~~]
The threat of nuclear terrorism looms much larger in the public’s mind than the threat
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assume that preventing World War III is a necessity—not an option. Blank 9 Stephen - Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, September 2009, "Russia’s Energy Weapon and European Security.," www.acus.org/files/StephenBlank-RussiaEnergy.pdf
Similarly abundant evidence exists that Moscow has used and continues to use energy as an instrument of dominance in the CIS as a whole and of leverage in Europe, either by controlling pipelines from Eurasia to Russia and then Europe or by maximizing its control of gas supplies from Russia (including those Central Asian supplies) to Europe.
Moscow’s frequent resort to energy punishments to get its way testifies to its view of energy as a primary lever of policy. This use of punishment does not end at the CIS’ borders even though it is most frequently employed there. Indeed, it has also regularly been employed against the Baltic States and in Central and Eastern Europe.
For instance, in the summer of 2008 Moscow cut off gas to the Czech
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amount of contracted gas given its depleted treasury due to the current crisis.
It is doing so to ensure that either Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko or opposition
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-Russian" policies and essentially demanding a change of government in Kyiv.
9 In earlier statements the Russian government has also denied that Ukraine is a truly
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onto Russia. Thus Ukraine would cease to exist as a state. 10
Putin also said that Russia regards NATO enlargement as a threat, so if Georgia received membership, Moscow would "take adequate measures" and recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia to create a buffer between NATO and Russia. 11 So we cannot say that we have not been warned what Moscow wants and what it might do if it so chose. Zbigniew Brzezinski 9, former U.S. National Security Advisor, the Robert E. Osgood Professor of American Foreign Policy at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, September/October 2009, "An Agenda for NATO," Foreign Affairs
And yet, it is fair to ask: Is NATO living up to its extraordinary potential? NATO today is without a doubt the most powerful military and political alliance in the world. Its 28 members come from the globe’s two most productive, technologically advanced, socially modern, economically prosperous, and politically democratic regions. Its member states’ 900 million people account for only 13 percent of the world’s population but 45 percent of global GDP.
NATO’s potential is not primarily military. Although NATO is a collective-security alliance
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geopolitical bond between the United States and Europe as it addresses new tasks.
The basic challenge that NATO now confronts is that there are historically unprecedented risks to
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the growing threat of violent political chaos stemming from humanity’s recent political awakening.
The three great political contests of the twentieth century (the two world wars and
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television, and the Internet accelerated and intensified this mass global political awakening.
In its early stages, such new political awareness tends to be expressed as a
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and religiously aroused peoples, is where NATO is becoming more deeply embroiled.
Additionally complicating is the fact that the dramatic rise of China and India and the
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these three still relatively cautious revisionist powers will further intensify the strategic uncertainty.
Visible on the horizon but not as powerful are the emerging regional rebels, with
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an extremist anti-Western religious movement is threatening the country’s political stability. ====US gas production collapses Gazprom ====
Aslund 9-27 – Anders Åslund has been a senior fellow at the Peterson
AND Gazprom, the natural gas company controlled by the Russian state, is in crisis
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eastern Europe, although oil and gas prices have delinked on the market. ENS 12 – Environment News Service, August 27th, 2012, "Greenpeace Battles Gazprom Over Russia’s Arctic Drill Rig" ens-newswire.com/2012/08/27/greenpeace-battles-gazprom-over-russias-arctic-drill-rig/
Gazprom, the world’s largest natural gas company, has big plans for oil and
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are so eager to take action against Gazprom in the icy Arctic waters. O’Rourke 12 – Ronal O’Rourke, specialist in naval affairs, June 15th, 2012, "Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress" http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41153.pdf
No oil spill is entirely benign. Even a relatively minor spill, depending on
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the species have longer life spans and reproduce at a slower rate.95 CAFF 98 – Biodiversity Working group of the Arctic Council, Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna, September 1998, "Strategic Plan for the Conservation of Arctic Biological Diversity" http://arcticportal.org/uploads/RX/zN/RXzNc4KU8QKfhN_KDw_oQQ/The-StrategicPlanforTheConservofArcticBiolDiv.pdf
The species of the Arctic are important for their own sake and for their value
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these species may require co-operative efforts with non-Arctic countries. Advantage 2 is Manufacturing ====Natural gas prices are low and stable—-production is high—-that spurs a renaissance in US manufacturing and chemical production====
Yergin 10-22 – Daniel is a Pulitzer Prize winning American author, speaker, and economic researcher. Yergin is the co-founder and chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy research consultancy that is now part of IHS Inc.. "Daniel Yergin: The Real Stimulus: Low-Cost Natural Gas," 2012, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444734804578062331199029850.html
An unconventional oil and gas revolution is under way in the United States, but
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the years ahead be offset by cheap energy in the U.S. Low prices are stabilizing and key to long-term investmentCCES 12 – Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, May 2012, "Natural Gas in the Industrial Sector," pdf
Increased availability and low prices of natural gas have significant implications for domestic manufacturing,
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and increased natural gas supplies also have the potential to stabilize prices.22 ====They’re key to manufacturing and the chemical industry====
PWC 11 – PwC’s Industrial Products (IP) practice provides financial, operational, and strategic services to global organizations. December 2011, "Shale Gas - A Renaissance in US Manufacturing?"www.pwc.com/en_US/us/industrial-products/assets/pwc-shale-gas-us-manufacturing-renaissance.pdf
The economic environment remains difficult for many US manufacturers, with soft demand and margin
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US manufacturing over the long term and create new jobs in the sector. ====Manufacturing is key to the economy and competitiveness – massive multiplier effects====
Boushey 12 – Heather Boushey, Senior Economist, Center for American Progress Action Fund, July 19th, 2012, "Testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Ways and Meanson Tax Reform and the U.S. Manufacturing Sector" waysandmeans.house.gov/uploadedfiles/boushey_testimony.pdf
Having a strong manufacturing industry in the United States should be at the top of
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ideas. How will we fare if those ideas originate somewhere else?"34 US competitiveness solves hegemony and great power warBaru 9 – Sanjaya Baru is a Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School in Singapore Geopolitical Implications of the Current Global Financial Crisis, Strategic Analysis, Volume 33, Issue 2 March 2009 , pages 163 - 168
Hence, economic policies and performance do have strategic consequences.2 In the modern
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sustain economic growth and military power, the classic ’guns versus butter’ dilemma. Ettlinger and Gordon 11 – Michael Ettlinger is the Vice President for Economic Policy at American Progress. Kate is a Senior Fellow at American Progress. "The Importance and Promise of American Manufacturing," April, http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2011/04/pdf/manufacturing.pdf
Beyond innovation and competitiveness, basing manufacturing in the United States also is important to
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obvious is the importance of keeping innovations in military technology close to home. Segal 4 – Maurice R. Greenberg Senior Fellow in China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Foreign Affairs, November 2004 - December 2004, Is America Losing Its Edge?, Adam Segal, Pg. 2 Vol. 83 No. 6, Technology Enterprises in China.
The United States’ global primacy depends in large part on its ability to develop new
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, the United States must get better at fostering technological entrepreneurship at home. Heg decline causes nuclear war and extinctionBarnett 11 – Thomas P.M. Barnett is Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis %26 Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, March 7th, 2011, "The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads," http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time of
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in all of its forms, deeply embedded in the geometry to come. Goldstein 7 Professor of Global Politics and International Relations @ University of Pennsylvania "Power transitions, institutions, and China’s rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence," Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 30, Issue 4 %26 5 August 2007, pages 639 – 682
Two closely related, though distinct, theoretical arguments focus explicitly on the consequences for
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the period prior to the possible crossover.19 pg. 647-650 Baum 99 – Baum, Founder of Chemical and Engineering News Washington, 12-6-99 (Rudy, "MILLENNIUM SPECIAL REPORT," C%26EN Washington, Volume 77, Number 49, http://pubs.acs.org/cen/hotarticles/cenear/991206/7749spintro2.html)
Computers and the Internet are clearly one of the driving forces shaping all aspects of
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mysteries and provide for humanity’s basic and not-so-basic needs. And it’s key to aerospaceDelpy and Pike 10 – Professor David Delpy FRS, chief executive at Oxford Economics, AND* Dr. Richard Pike, Ph.D. in chemical sciences, September 2010, "The economic benefits of chemistry research to the UK," http://www.rsc.org/images/Economic_Benefits_of_Chemistry_Sep_2010_tcm18-191337.pdf
Aerospace - The modern aerospace industry depends on high-performance products that are lightweight
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helping to improve the performance maintainability of the aircraft should not be underestimated. Deloitte 12 | (Deloitte is a consulting and financial advisory service, Report Commissioned by the Aerospace Industries Association, " The Aerospace and Defense Industry in the U.S. A financial and economic impact study," March, http://www.aia-aerospace.org/assets/deloitte_study_2012.pdf)
The world continues to demonstrate how dangerous it is and how our civilization and way
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continues to develop the next generation technologies to address these and future threats. Fritz 9 | Researcher for International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament ~[Jason, researcher for International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, former Army officer and consultant, and has a master of international relations at Bond University, "Hacking Nuclear Command and Control," July, http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.pdf-http://www.icnnd.org/latest/research/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.pdf~]
This paper will analyse the threat of cyber terrorism in regard to nuclear weapons.
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its own, without the need for compromising command and control centres directly. Gardner 99 (Lt Col Igor J.P., School of Advanced Airpower Studies, "THEATER LAND ATTACK CRUISE MISSILE DEFENSE: GUARDING THE BACK DOOR")
LACM = Land Attack Cruise Missile
While few likely regional adversaries currently possess an LACM capability, a serious threat could
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areas of common doctrine, system modernization and integration, and joint training. Telegraph 11
(Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) Reinforced Point Of Contact (RPOC) Meeting, April 10, 2008, Wikileaks Transcript Classified by ISN/MTR Director Pam Durham, February 2, 2011, pg online @ Telegraph)
21. (C) Additionally, many countries are pursuing cruise missile programs as
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, often by drawing on all of us for various forms of facilitation. Aerospace is key to stability in Asia - the impact is nuclear and biological warfareKhalilzad and Lesser 98 | Counselor @ CSIS, President of Khalilzad Associates, and Former US Ambassador to the UN AND PhD Senior Transatlantic Fellow @ the German Marshall Fund (Zalmay and Ian, "Sources of Conflict in the 21st Century," p.164-165)
The first key implication derived from the analysis of trends in Asia suggests that American
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air power will of necessity be the primary instruments constituting the American response. Ochs 2 | Past president of the Aberdeen Proving Ground Superfund Citizens Coalition, Member of the Depleted Uranium Task force of the Military Toxics Project, and M of the Chemical Weapons Working Group ~[Richard Ochs, , June 9, 2002, "Biological Weapons Must Be Abolished Immediately," http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html-http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html~]
Of all the weapons of mass destruction, the genetically engineered biological weapons, many
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also allow easier use of US bioweapons? How slippery is this slope? IHS 11 (IHS Global Insight - leading economic analysis and forecasting firm, December 2011, "The Economic and Employment Contributions of Shale Gas in the United States," anga.us/media/235626/shale-gas-economic-impact-dec-2011.pdf)
Energy from electricity or natural gas makes up a higher proportion of the value of
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investments already announced could have quite a significant impact on the steel industry. That’s key to aircraft carriers and the navyGibson 11 – Thomas J. Gibson received his law degree from Georgetown University where
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AISI/About AISI/Profile Brochure F-singles_CX.pdf
Military uses for steel are extensive. Thousands of skilled men and women of the
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resistant ambush-protected (MRAP) vehicles use significant amounts of steel. Gordon et al. 6 – John Gordon, Senior Policy Analyst At RAND Corporation, Ph.D. in public policy, George Mason University; M.A. in international relations, St. Mary’s University; M.B.A., Marymount University; B.A. in history, The Citadel, May 9th, 2006, John Gordon IV, Peter A. Wilson, John Birkler, Steven Boraz, Gordon T. Lee, Leveraging America’s Aircraft Carrier Capabilities, http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2006/RAND_MG448.pdf
This vignette examined the possibility that a radical group within the Pakistani military attempts to
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man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) and other air defenses. Caldicott 2 (Helen Caldicott, Founder, Physicians for Social Responsibility, THE NEW NUCLEAR DANGER, 2002, p. xii)
The use of Pakistani nuclear weapons could trigger a chain reaction. Nuclear-armed India, an ancient enemy, could respond in kind. China, India’s hated foe, could react if India used her nuclear weapons, triggering a nuclear holocaust on the subcontinent. If any of either Russia or America’s 2, 250 strategic weapons on hair-trigger alert were launched either accidentally or purposefully in response, nuclear winter would ensue, meaning the end of most life on earth. Conway et al. 7 ~[James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, "A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower," October, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf~~]
No other disruption is as potentially disastrous to global stability as war among major powers
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and sustain forces, sea control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore. Solvency ====The EPA restrictions will crush the natural gas industry====
ARI 12 – Advanced Resources International Inc. report for the American Petroleum Institute, "Estimate of Impacts of EPA Proposals to Reduce Air Emissions from Hydraulic Fracturing Operations, February 2012, "www.api.org/~/media/Files/Policy/Hydraulic_Fracturing/NSPS-OG-ARI-Impacts-of-EPA-Air-Rules-Final-Report.ashx
Depending on the REC-Set Use Rate scenario assumed, the following impacts from
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with reduced drilling, oil and gas supply services, and indirect employment. ====Even with the 2015 extension, producers do not have the technology to comply with the restrictions====
Davidson 12 – Mark Davidson is Editorial Director for Platts’ North American natural gas news
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.amazonaws.com/cuttings/cuttingpdfs/18531/075d95107cdd5ed278a19f158843771f.pdf
Regulators from Western states urged the Environmental Protection Agency on Tuesday to remain flexible with
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take these factors into account more readily than a national-level rule." ====The air emission rules create regulatory uncertainty and will lead to further regulation====
Mack et al. 12 – Joel Mack is a partner in Latham %26 Watkins’ Houston office. Davon Collins is an associate in the firm’s New York office. Sara Orr and Ben Lawless* are associates in the Washington, D.C., office. May 11th, 2012, "A 1st for Fracking: EPA’s Air Emissions Regulations," www.lw.com/thoughtLeadership/a-first-for-fracking
Notably, although the rule does not regulate methane directly, there are indications that
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for likely regulatory targets and be prepared to engage in future rulemaking processes. Stevens August 2012 – Professor Paul Stevens is Senior Research Fellow for Energy at Chatham
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/Research/Energy, Environment and Development/bp0812_stevens.pdf
There is a real danger that investor uncertainty will inhibit investment in future gas supplies. If the shale gas revolution can be continued and replicated this does not matter. Shale gas can provide abundant supplies of cheap natural gas. However, if it disappoints then, as the 2010 report notes, in five to ten years gas markets could face significant shortages as a result of the very long lead times on upstream gas projects. And independently, the restrictions destroy independent producers, which are key to the industryBanerjee 12 – Neela Banerjee, writer for the Los Angeles Times, April 18th, 2012, "New EPA rules target pollution at fracking sites" articles.latimes.com/2012/apr/18/business/la-fi-epa-drilling-20120419
The rules are expected to affect about 11,000 new wells annually that undergo
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the economy and the national security has the "potential to be profound." Cappiello 12 – Dina is an Associated Press writer. "EPA sets natural gas pollution standards," April 21, http://theadvocate.com/home/2607063-125/epa-sets-natural-gas-pollution-http://theadvocate.com/home/2607063-125/epa-sets-natural-gas-pollution
Don Briggs, president of the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association, called the regulations
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85 percent of all wells in the United States would be shut down." Status quo state regulations are sufficient – the EPA restrictions tank production and drive up costsLoris 8-29 – Nicolas D. Loris is the Herbert and Joyce Morgan Fellow in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation, August 29th, 2012, "Hydraulic Fracturing: Critical for Energy Production, Jobs, and Economic Growth," php?article=75622%26pageid=%26pagename=
One of the reasons why hydraulic fracturing has been so successful in promoting oil and
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occurs in an environmentally sensible way. Congress should keep it that way. |
| 01/04/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Donley %26 Schwartz 12 – Michael Donley, Secretary of the Air Force AND* Norton Schwartz, USAF General, Jan 31st, 2012, "Energy Horizons: United States Air Force Energy S%26T Vision 2011-2026,"
The Air Force faces daunting energy challenges which promise only to increase in severity given
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, environmentally, and renewably), and secure now and in the future. Dunlap 6 – Maj. General, deputy judge advocate of the Air Force, National War College graduate with over 30 years of Armed Forces Experience, Charles Jr., Armed Forces Journal, "America’s Asymmetric Advantage", http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2006/09/2009013
So where does that leave us? If we are smart, we will have
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), the very existence of the U.S. is at risk. Barnett 11 – Thomas P.M. Barnett is Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis %26 Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, March 7th, 2011, "The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads," http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time of
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in all of its forms, deeply embedded in the geometry to come. Goldstein 7 – Professor of Global Politics and International Relations @ University of Pennsylvania "Power transitions, institutions, and China’s rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence," Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 30, Issue 4 %26 5 August 2007, pages 639 – 682
Two closely related, though distinct, theoretical arguments focus explicitly on the consequences for
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the period prior to the possible crossover.19 pg. 647-650 ====US-China war causes extinction====
Strait Times 2k (Ching Cheong, Senior Journalist with The Strait Times, "No one gains in a war over Taiwan," June 25th, Lexis)
THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war escalating into a full
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should that come to pass, we would see the destruction of civilization. ====Air power is key to US-Asia alliances and an effective Asia pivot====
Lowther 11 – Dr. Adam B. Lowther is a member of the faculty at the U.S Air Force’s Air University. November 22nd, 2011, "Why U.S. Needs Airpower Diplomacy," thediplomat.com/2011/11/22/why-u-s-needs-airpower-diplomacy/?all=true
What makes affording a shift to the region particularly difficult is the fact that the
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sensitive, and responsive to the requirements of a complex and changing region. Colby 11 – Elbridge Colby, research analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, served as policy advisor to the Secretary of Defense’s Representative to the New START talks, expert advisor to the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission, August 10, 2011, "Why the U.S. Needs its Liberal Empire," The Diplomat, online: http://the-diplomat.com/2011/08/10/why-us-needs-its-liberal-empire/2/?print=yes
But the pendulum shouldn’t be allowed to swing too far toward an incautious retrenchment.
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The ability and will to intervene is too important to be so wasted. Tow 7 – William T. Tow is Professor, Department of International Relations, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, the Australian National University. AND* Amitav Acharya is Professor of Global Governance, Department of Politics, University of Bristol. December 2007, "Obstinate or obsolete? The US alliance structure in the Asia–Pacific" ips.cap.anu.edu.au/ir/pubs/work_papers/07-4.pdf
The above observation leads to a third explanation for US bilateral alliance persistence in the
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seas—an activity North Korea perceives as directly aimed against itself. 59 Lyon 9 (December, Program Director, Strategy and International, with Australian Strategic Policy Institute, previously a Senior Lecturer in International Relations at the University of Queensland, "A delicate issue, Asia’s nuclear future")
Deterrence relationships in Asia won’t look like East–West deterrence. They won’t be
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the numbers and locations of weapons to minimise the vulnerability of their arsenals. Kaplan 11 – Robert D. Kaplan 11 is senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, national correspondent for the Atlantic, and a member of the U.S. Defense Department’s Defense Policy Board, September/October 2011, "The South China Sea Is the Future of Conflict," online: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/15/the_south_china_sea_is_the_future_of_conflict?print=yes%26hidecomments=yes%26page=full
The South China Sea joins the Southeast Asian states with the Western Pacific, functioning
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Taiwan one, Vietnam 25, the Philippines eight, and Malaysia five. Collapse of Asian trade causes US draw-in and global nuclear warAuslin 9 – Michael Auslin 9, resident scholar at AEI, "Averting Disaster", The Daily Standard, 2/6, http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.29339/pub_detail.asp
As they deal with a collapsing world economy, policymakers in Washington and around the
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types of miscalculation and greed that have destroyed international systems in the past. Nuccitelli 12 – Dana, environmental scientist at a private environmental consulting firm in Sacramento and has a Bachelor’s Degree in astrophysics from the University of California at Berkeley, and a Master’s Degree in physics from the University of California at Davis, 2012, "Realistically What Might The Future Climate Look Like?", http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/09/01/784931/realistically-what-might-the-future-climate-look-like/
This is Why Reducing Emissions is Critical¶ We’re not yet committed to surpassing 2
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Earth than today’s, but we still can and must limit the damage. Scientific consensus proves warming is real, anthropogenic, and causes extinction – plan is key to solveFlournoy 12 – Dan Flournoy, PhD and MA from the University of Texas, Former Dean of the University College at Ohio University, Former Associate Dean at State University of New York and Case Institute of Technology, Project Manager for University/Industry Experiments for the NASA ACTS Satellite, Currently Professor of Telecommunications at Scripps College of Communications @ Ohio University, January 2012, "Solar Power Satellites," Springer Briefs in Space Development
In the Online Journal of Space Communication , Dr. Feng Hsu, a NASA
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our Sun" (Hsu 2010 ) (Fig . 2.1 ). Prefer scientific consensus – warming skeptics are paid off by fuel companies and cherry-pick dataMonbiot 8 – visiting fellowships or professorships at the universities of Oxford (environmental policy), Bristol (philosophy), Keele (politics), Oxford Brookes (planning) and East London (environmental science). He has honorary doctorates from the University of St Andrews and the University of Essex and an Honorary Fellowship from Cardiff University ~George, "Big oil’s big lie," June 23, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jun/23/climatechange.carbonemissions~~
Of course, it’s not a crime, and it’s hard to see how,
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to the highest bidder. The awful truth is that sometimes it is. Warming magnifies all impacts and makes global conflicts inevitableGinsborg et al. 12 – Mikkel Funder, Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde and Ida Peters Ginsborg - in collaboration with Nanna Callisen Bang, Denmark Institute for International Studies, 2012, "ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT IN DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION EXPERIENCES FROM NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT" www.diis.dk/graphics/Publications/Reports2012/RP2012-04-Addressing-climate-change_web.jpg.pdf
2.2 Climate change as a conflict multiplier¶ Climate change is therefore best
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actors such as governments – thereby increasing the risk and intensity of conflict. Sify, Citing Professors @ University of Queensland and North Carolina, 10 (Sify News, Citing Ove Hoegh-Gulberg, Professor @ University of Queensland and Director of the Global Change Institute AND Citing John Bruno, Associate Professor of Marine Science @ UNC, "Could unbridled climate changes lead to human extinction?," June 19th, http://www.sify.com/news/could-unbridled-climate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html-http://www.sify.com/news/could-unbridled-climate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html) Sydney: Scientists have sounded alarm bells about how growing concentrations of greenhouse gases are
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undergoing massive change and in some cases beginning to fail’, he added. Fuerth 8 – Fuerth, Research Professor of International Affairs at George Washington University, former National Security Advisor to VP Al Gore, 2008, Leon, Severe Climate Change over the Next Thirty Years, In Climatic Cataclysm, p. 142
In sub-Saharan Africa, hundreds of millions of already vulnerable persons will be
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, severe climate change will become the common denominator of turbulence and destruction. Glick 7 Caroline Glick 7, deputy managing editor of The Jerusalem Post, Senior Fellow for Middle East Affairs of the Center for Security Policy, "Condi’s African holiday", December 11, http://www.rightsidenews.com/20071211309/editorial/us-opinion-and-editorial/our-world-condis-african-holiday.html
The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and strategically vital place. Small wars, which rage continuously, can easily escalate into big wars. Local conflicts have regional and global aspects. All of the conflicts in this tinderbox, which controls shipping lanes from the Indian Ocean into the Red Sea, can potentially give rise to regional, and indeed global conflagrations between competing regional actors and global powers. Garretson 12 – Lt Col Peter Garretson is an airpower strategist currently serving on the CSAF’s Strategic Studies Group (HAF/CK). His previous assignment was at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi as an Air Force Fellow examining Indo–US long-term space collaboration under the sponsorship of the Council on Foreign Relations. Prior to that he was the chief of future science and technology exploration for the HQ USAF Directorate of Strategic Planning (AF/A8XC), Spring 2012, "Solar Power in Space?" Strategic Studies Quarterly Spring, http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2012/spring/garretson.pdf-http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2012/spring/garretson.pdf
But so far at least, the reaction seems more consistent with the worry expressed
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but also undermines the dedication and determination of any competitors and adversaries." 31 Arkin 12 – Editor, NBC Universal (Daniel, 2/22/12, "Air Force Plans Nuke-Powered Spacecraft, Space-Based Power Stations", http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/tech/NATL-Report-US-Air-Force-Plans-Energy-Revolution-139967283.html)
The ~USAF~ United States Air Force plans to institute revolutionary changes over the
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advancements in the SBPS method could be completely revolutionary, the report says. Fossil fuel dependence is unsustainable – only SPS-ALPHA solves world energy needs and can be exported globallyDvorsky 11-28 – George Dvorsky, writer for Io9, a daily science and technology publication, November 28th, 2012, "How space-based solar power will solve all our energy needs" io9.com/5963955/how-space+based-solar-power-will-solve-all-our-energy-needs
Humanity’s demand for energy is growing at an astonishing rate. Combine this with an
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200 kilograms), allowing all pieces to be mass produced at low cost. Flournoy 12 – Don Flournoy, PhD and MA from the University of Texas, Former Dean of the University College at Ohio University, Former Associate Dean at State University of New York and Case Institute of Technology, Project Manager for University/Industry Experiments for the NASA ACTS Satellite, Currently Professor of Telecommunications at Scripps College of Communications at Ohio University, "Solar Power Satellites," January, Springer Briefs in Space Development, Book
One of the obvious opportunities for solar power satellites is to become an on-
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Sunsat business to guarantee a sustainable night-and-day fuel source. Flournoy 12 – Don Flournoy, PhD and MA from the University of Texas, Former Dean of the University College at Ohio University, Former Associate Dean at State University of New York and Case Institute of Technology, Project Manager for University/Industry Experiments for the NASA ACTS Satellite, Currently Professor of Telecommunications at Scripps College of Communications at Ohio University, "Solar Power Satellites," January, Springer Briefs in Space Development, Book
Alternative terrestrial energy is not the complete answer, either. According to Woodcock,
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SSP does not provide potential targets for terrorists (National Space Society 2008 ). Ritter 11-24 – Karl Ritter, reporter for the Huffington Post, November 24th, 2012, "U.N. Climate Talks: Will U.S. Take More Central Role After Bout Of Extreme Weather?" www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/24/un-climate-un-qatar-united-states_n_2184357.html?view=print%26comm_ref=false-http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/24/un-climate-un-qatar-united-states_n_2184357.html?view=print%26comm_ref=false
"I think there will be expectations from countries to hear a new voice from
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scientist at Climate Analytics, a non-profit organization based in Berlin. Kammen 7 – Professor of Public Policy @ UC Berkeley (Daniel, "Green Jobs Created by Global Warming Initiative," September 25th, http://www.unep.org/civil_society/GCSF9/pdfs/karmen-senate.pdf)
In addition to supporting domestic job creation, clean energy is an important and fastest
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and the actions of a number of emerging economies to ’go green’. Creating a prize system catalyzes SPS development and makes it economically viableGlobus 11 Al Globus, Chair of the National Space Society’s Space Settlement Advocacy Committee, July 2011, "A SPACE SOLAR POWER INDUSTRY FOR %242 BILLION OR YOUR MONEY BACK"
The proposed prize pays out for each kilowatt-hour (kwh – one thousand
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Earth, not to mention space development, languish with essentially no funding. Globus 11 Al Globus, Chair of the National Space Society’s Space Settlement Advocacy Committee, July 2011, "A SPACE SOLAR POWER INDUSTRY FOR %242 BILLION OR YOUR MONEY BACK"
A system of prizes to develop space solar power (SSP) is proposed.
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reasonable to hope that Earth’s energy and greenhouse gas problems could be solved. ====SPS-Alpha can be up and running in a few years with only a few billion dollars – new tech ensures feasibility and low costs====
Mankins 12 – John C. Mankins, President of Artemis Innovation Management Solutions LLC
AND
/new-paradigm-for-space-based-solar.html
Question: How exactly has the technology evolved since the 1970s? ¶ There have
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mass-produced pieces, standard launch systems and robotic assembly in space. Garretson 12 – Lt Col Peter Garretson is an airpower strategist currently serving on the CSAF’s Strategic Studies Group (HAF/CK). His previous assignment was at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi as an Air Force Fellow examining Indo–US long-term space collaboration under the sponsorship of the Council on Foreign Relations. Prior to that he was the chief of future science and technology exploration for the HQ USAF Directorate of Strategic Planning (AF/A8XC), Spring 2012, "Solar Power in Space?" Strategic Studies Quarterly Spring, http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2012/spring/garretson.pdf-http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2012/spring/garretson.pdf
As of 2010, the fundamental research to achieve technical feasibility for the SPS ~
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to sunlight, allowing the land beneath to remain available for agricultural uses. SPS is resilient, cost-effective, and efficientReed %26 Willenberg 4 – Head of the Welsom Space Consortium, and Harvey, PhD, Independent Review Team Leader for Space Power Research for NASA, Former Chief Scientist of the ISS (Kevin and Harvey, , "Early commercial demonstration of space solar power using ultra-lightweight arrays," Acta Astronautica, Volume 65, Issues 9-10, accessed on Science Direct)
Future systems will be even more sensitive to specific power. A number of conceptual
AND
and are resistant to atomic oxygen and radiation in the operational space environment. |
| 01/09/2013 | Tournament: Fullerton | Round: Octas | Opponent: | Judge: Lemonick 9 – Michael D. Lemonick is the senior writer at Climate Central,
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from_space_moving_beyond_science_fiction/2184/
But the military’s interest in SBSP could give a major boost to the technology.
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of Energy — that would have a stake in space-based power. Procurement makes SPS economically feasible and catalyzes investmentNSSO 7 – National Security Space Office, Report to the Director, October 10, 2007, "Space-Based Solar Power As an Opportunity for Strategic Security; Phase 0 Architecture Feasibility Study" http://www.nss.org/settlement/ssp/library/final-sbsp-interim-assessment-release-01.pdf
FINDING:The SBSP Study Group found that industry has stated that the ~%231
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prizes or signaling its willingness to become the anchor customer for the product. ====SPS-Alpha can be up and running in a few years with only a few billion dollars – new tech ensures feasibility and low costs====
Mankins 12 – John C. Mankins, President of Artemis Innovation Management Solutions LLC
AND
/new-paradigm-for-space-based-solar.html
Question: How exactly has the technology evolved since the 1970s? ¶ There have
AND
mass-produced pieces, standard launch systems and robotic assembly in space. Garretson 12 – Lt Col Peter Garretson is an airpower strategist currently serving on the CSAF’s Strategic Studies Group (HAF/CK). His previous assignment was at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi as an Air Force Fellow examining Indo–US long-term space collaboration under the sponsorship of the Council on Foreign Relations. Prior to that he was the chief of future science and technology exploration for the HQ USAF Directorate of Strategic Planning (AF/A8XC), Spring 2012, "Solar Power in Space?" Strategic Studies Quarterly Spring, http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2012/spring/garretson.pdf-http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2012/spring/garretson.pdf
As of 2010, the fundamental research to achieve technical feasibility for the SPS ~[
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to sunlight, allowing the land beneath to remain available for agricultural uses. SPS is resilient, cost-effective, and efficientReed %26 Willenberg 4 – Head of the Welsom Space Consortium, and Harvey, PhD, Independent Review Team Leader for Space Power Research for NASA, Former Chief Scientist of the ISS (Kevin and Harvey, , "Early commercial demonstration of space solar power using ultra-lightweight arrays," Acta Astronautica, Volume 65, Issues 9-10, accessed on Science Direct)
Future systems will be even more sensitive to specific power. A number of conceptual
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and are resistant to atomic oxygen and radiation in the operational space environment. And EllisWood 12 – Elisa Wood, contributer to Renewable Energy World, April 16th, 2012, "Race for Renewables’ Game-changers Heats Up" com/rea/news/article/2012/04/race-for-game-changing-technology-intensifies
Virginia, U.S.A. — First comes invention then comes prosperity
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electricity and shipped to homes and businesses over existing transmission and distribution lines. SPS is key to global economic competitiveness – specifically in aerospace and manufacturingMatai 10 – DK Matai, PhD in Engineering, Chairman of the Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA), won The Queen’s Award for Enterprise in the category of Innovation for Bespoke Security Architecture in 2003, authority on countering complex global threats; strategic risk management %26 visualisation; contingency planning; Information Operations (IO); electronic defence; biometric authentication; secure payment systems and Open Source hardened kernel solutions, June 13th, 2010, "Japan Takes Lead in Wireless Power? 21stC Global Energy Supply," php
*note: WPT = wireless power transmission
Conclusion¶ The demand for power on Earth is growing exponentially, and associated environmental
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no turning back from this final frontier in the 21st century and beyond%21 SEC 8 – Space Enterprise Council, 2008, NSS, http://www.nss.org/settlement/ssp/library/2008-SECSpaceBasedSolarPowerWhitePaper.pdf
SBSP is unusual among renewable energy options because it might satisfy all four of the
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enhancement for, rather than a competitor with, terrestrial solar power generation. US competitiveness is key to hegemony and independently solves great power warBaru 9 – Sanjaya Baru is a Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School in Singapore Geopolitical Implications of the Current Global Financial Crisis, Strategic Analysis, Volume 33, Issue 2 March 2009 , pages 163 - 168
Hence, economic policies and performance do have strategic consequences.2 In the modern
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sustain economic growth and military power, the classic ’guns versus butter’ dilemma. SPS is key to technological innovation and leadershipWTC 11 – Want China Times, Online Journal of Space Communication, an international electronic journal, September 2nd, 2011, "China Unveils Plan for Solar Power Station in Space" spacejournal.ohio.edu/issue16/chinaunveils.html
"The development of a solar power station in space will fundamentally change the way
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significant progress and laid a sound foundation for a space solar power station. Technological leadership is key to science diplomacy – it creates international cooperation that independently de-escalates every impact and solves failed statesFederoff 8 – ina Fedoroff 8, Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary of State and the Administrator of USAID, Testimony Before the House Science Subcommittee on Research and Science Education, 4/2, http://www.state.gov/g/oes/rls/rm/102996.htm-http://www.state.gov/g/oes/rls/rm/102996.htm
Chairman Baird, Ranking Member Ehlers, and distinguished members of the Subcommittee, thank
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a means to enhance security, increase global partnerships, and create sustainability. AFC 3 – African Studies Centre et al, The Transnational Institute, The Center of Social Studies, Coimbra University, and The Peace Research Center – CIP-FUHEM, December 2007, "Failed and Collapsed States in the International System," http://www.tni.org/sites/www.tni.org/archives/reports/failedstates.pdf
In the malign scenario of global developments the number of collapsed states would grow significantly
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European states - could be faced with direct attacks on their national security. Segal 4 – Maurice R. Greenberg Senior Fellow in China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Foreign Affairs, November 2004 - December 2004, Is America Losing Its Edge?, Adam Segal, Pg. 2 Vol. 83 No. 6, Technology Enterprises in China.
The United States’ global primacy depends in large part on its ability to develop new
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, the United States must get better at fostering technological entrepreneurship at home. Barnett 11 – Thomas P.M. Barnett is Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis %26 Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, March 7th, 2011, "The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads," http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time of
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in all of its forms, deeply embedded in the geometry to come. Goldstein 7 – Professor of Global Politics and International Relations @ University of Pennsylvania "Power transitions, institutions, and China’s rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence," Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 30, Issue 4 %26 5 August 2007, pages 639 – 682
Two closely related, though distinct, theoretical arguments focus explicitly on the consequences for
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the period prior to the possible crossover.19 pg. 647-650 NSSO 7 – National Security Space Office, Report to the Director, October 10, 2007, "Space-Based Solar Power As an Opportunity for Strategic Security; Phase 0 Architecture Feasibility Study" http://www.nss.org/settlement/ssp/library/final-sbsp-interim-assessment-release-01.pdf
For the DoD specifically, beamed energy from space in quantities greater than 5 MWe
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due to energy scarcity by providing access to a strategically secure energy supply. Kagan %26 O’Hanlon 7 – Frederick Kagan and Michael O’Hanlon, Frederick Kagan is a resident scholar at AEI, AND* Michael O’Hanlon is a senior fellow in foreign policy at Brookings, "The Case for Larger Ground Forces", April 2007, http://www.aei.org/files/2007/04/24/20070424_Kagan20070424.pdf-http://www.aei.org/files/2007/04/24/20070424_Kagan20070424.pdf
We live at a time when wars not only rage in nearly every region but
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Such a measure is not only prudent, it is also badly overdue. And DHeidt if he looks at the speech docDavid 12 – Leonard David has been reporting on the space industry for more than five decades. He is a winner of last year’s National Space Club Press Award and a past editor-in-chief of the National Space Society’s Ad Astra and Space World magazines. He has written for SPACE.com since 1999. February 22nd, 2012, "Air Force Eyes Nuclear Reactors, Beamed Power for Spacecraft," html
For example, the Air Force is currently limited to 27 kilowatt (kW)
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such as space tethers that could harvest energy from the Earth’s geomagnetic field. Dinerman 7 – Taylor Dinerman, DoD Consultant, senior editor at the Gatestone Institute in New York. He specializes in the areas of space, missile defense and geopolitics affairs, July 16th, 2007, "Solar power satellites and space radar" http://integrator.hanscom.af.mil/2007/July/07262007/07262007-16.htm-http://integrator.hanscom.af.mil/2007/July/07262007/07262007-16.htm
One of the great showstoppers for the Space Radar (SR) program, formerly
AND
of future capability and less ambitious in terms of near-term operations. Marques 5 Marta Marti-Marques, Technical University of Valencia, Spain, "SPACE-BASED RADAR SYSTEM FOR GEOSTATIONARY DEBRIS DETECTION AND TRACKING AT MEO", 2005, www.iafastro.net/iac/archive/browse/IAC-05/B6/1/1965/
Since the first known satellite fragmentation occurred just four years after Sputnik 1 was successfully
AND
proposal and demonstrate its effectiveness in preserving the orbital environment for future generations. Weeden 9-30 – Brian Weeden, Bachelor’s in Science (B.S
AND The February 2009 collision between an active Iridium satellite and a dead Russian satellite was
AND
have been proposed, announced, attempted and subsequently killed with few results. Debris will knock out satellites and cause extinctionDunstan 9 – James, JD, Space and Technology Lawyer – Garvey Schubert Barer, and Berin Szoka, Senior Feelow – Progress and Freedom Foundation, Director – Space Frontier Foundation, and Member of the Commerical Space Transportation Advisory Committee – Federal Aviation Administration, "Beware Of Space Junk: Global Warming Isn’t the Only Major Environmental Problem",http://techliberation.com/2009/1t2/18/beware-of-space-junk-global-warming-isnt-the-only-major-environmental-problem/-http://techliberation.com/2009/1t2/18/beware-of-space-junk-global-warming-isnt-the-only-major-environmental-problem/
As world leaders meet in Copenhagen to consider drastic carbon emission restrictions that could require
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could run into the trillions—rivaling even some proposed climate change solutions. Lewis 4 (Jeffrey Lewis, postdoctoral fellow in the Advanced Methods of Cooperative Study Program; worked in the office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Center for Defense Information, "What if Space were Weaponized?" July 2004, http://www.cdi.org/PDFs/scenarios.pdf)
This is the second of two scenarios that consider how U.S. space
AND
to the con•dence that allows national nuclear forces to operate safely. Helfand and Pastore 9 | Presidents of Physicians for Social Responsibility (Ira and John, MD’s and Past Presidents of the Physicians for Social Responsbility, "US-Russia nuclear war still a threat," 3/31)
Since the end of the Cold War, many have acted as though the danger
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Presidents Obama and Medvedev can do this on their own by executive order. Hodges 11 (Jim Hodges, "Commanding the Arctic," C4ISR Journal, March 1, 2011, http://www.c4isrjournal.com/story.php?F=5508063)
It was simpler during the Cold War. The United States and Canada set up
AND
21.8 billion defense budget that some in Parliament want to reduce. Wallace %26 Staples 10 – Michael Wallace is Professor Emeritus at the University of British Columbia; Steven Staples is President of the Rideau Institute in Ottawa, March 2010, "Ridding the Arctic of Nuclear Weapons A Task Long Overdue", http://www.arcticsecurity.org/docs/arctic-nuclear-report-web.pdf
The fact is, the Arctic is becoming a zone of increased military competition.
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geo-political/economic significance of the Arctic because of climate change." Space radar is key to ISR—-solves naval effectiveness and dampens the impact of bioweapons attacksNational Research Council 5 – Committee on the Navy’s Needs in Space for Providing Future Capabilites, National Research Council. 2005. "The Navy’s Needs in Space for Providing Future Capabilities" php?record_id=11299
~[NSS = Naval Support System~]
Today, strike targets are identified, classified, tracked, and geolocated through a
AND
specialized maritime radar experts, the operational Navy, and sthe SBR office. Ochs 2 | Past president of the Aberdeen Proving Ground Superfund Citizens Coalition, Member of the Depleted Uranium Task force of the Military Toxics Project, and M of the Chemical Weapons Working Group ~[Richard Ochs, , June 9, 2002, "Biological Weapons Must Be Abolished Immediately," http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html-http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html~]
Of all the weapons of mass destruction, the genetically engineered biological weapons, many
AND
also allow easier use of US bioweapons? How slippery is this slope? Conway et al. 7 ~[James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, "A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower," October, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf~~]
No other disruption is as potentially disastrous to global stability as war among major powers
AND
and sustain forces, sea control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore. Hilley 8 – Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class (Monique, "Coalition Forces Work To Deter Piracy In Gulf Of Aden", The United States Department of the Navy, 1/17/09, Story Number: NNS090117-01, Online @ http://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=41897)
USS SAN ANTONIO, At sea (NNS) — Combined Task Force (CTF
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to create a lawful maritime order and develop security in the maritime environment. Middleton 8—Roger, consultant reseacher in the Africa Programme at the Chatham House, the Royal Institute of Economic Affairs, "Piracy in Somalia", October, http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Africa/1008piracysomalia.pdf-http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Africa/1008piracysomalia.pdf
Large oil tankers pass through the Gulf of Aden and the danger exists that a
AND - however, the possibility that they could destroy shipping is very real.
Ocean destruction causes extinctionCraig 3 (Robin, Professor of Law at Indiana, "Taking Steps," 34 McGeorge Law Review. 155, Lexis)
Biodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine ecosystems also exist, just as they
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- even if a few fishers go out of business as a result. |
| 01/13/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: The Department of Defense should acquire electricity from space solar power-produced energy in the United States. |
| 01/13/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
====The DOD is interested in SPS – procurement rapidly accelerates commercial development====
Lemonick 9 – Michael D. Lemonick is the senior writer at Climate Central,
AND
from_space_moving_beyond_science_fiction/2184/
But the military’s interest in SBSP could give a major boost to the technology.
AND
of Energy — that would have a stake in space-based power. Procurement makes SPS economically feasible and catalyzes investmentNSSO 7 – National Security Space Office, Report to the Director, October 10, 2007, "Space-Based Solar Power As an Opportunity for Strategic Security; Phase 0 Architecture Feasibility Study" http://www.nss.org/settlement/ssp/library/final-sbsp-interim-assessment-release-01.pdf
FINDING:The SBSP Study Group found that industry has stated that the ~%231
AND
prizes or signaling its willingness to become the anchor customer for the product. ====SPS-Alpha can be up and running in a few years with only a few billion dollars – new tech ensures feasibility and low costs====
Mankins 12 – John C. Mankins, President of Artemis Innovation Management Solutions LLC
AND
/new-paradigm-for-space-based-solar.html
Question: How exactly has the technology evolved since the 1970s? ¶ There have
AND
mass-produced pieces, standard launch systems and robotic assembly in space. Garretson 12 – Lt Col Peter Garretson is an airpower strategist currently serving on the CSAF’s Strategic Studies Group (HAF/CK). His previous assignment was at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi as an Air Force Fellow examining Indo–US long-term space collaboration under the sponsorship of the Council on Foreign Relations. Prior to that he was the chief of future science and technology exploration for the HQ USAF Directorate of Strategic Planning (AF/A8XC), Spring 2012, "Solar Power in Space?" Strategic Studies Quarterly Spring, http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2012/spring/garretson.pdf-http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2012/spring/garretson.pdf
As of 2010, the fundamental research to achieve technical feasibility for the SPS ~
AND
to sunlight, allowing the land beneath to remain available for agricultural uses. SPS is resilient, cost-effective, and efficientReed %26 Willenberg 4 – Head of the Welsom Space Consortium, and Harvey, PhD, Independent Review Team Leader for Space Power Research for NASA, Former Chief Scientist of the ISS (Kevin and Harvey, , "Early commercial demonstration of space solar power using ultra-lightweight arrays," Acta Astronautica, Volume 65, Issues 9-10, accessed on Science Direct)
Future systems will be even more sensitive to specific power. A number of conceptual
AND
and are resistant to atomic oxygen and radiation in the operational space environment. |
| 01/13/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: David 12 – Leonard David has been reporting on the space industry for more than five decades. He is a winner of last year’s National Space Club Press Award and a past editor-in-chief of the National Space Society’s Ad Astra and Space World magazines. He has written for SPACE.com since 1999. February 22nd, 2012, "Air Force Eyes Nuclear Reactors, Beamed Power for Spacecraft," www.space.com/14643-air-force-space-nuclear-reactors-power-beaming.html-http://www.space.com/14643-air-force-space-nuclear-reactors-power-beaming.html
For example, the Air Force is currently limited to 27 kilowatt (kW)
AND
such as space tethers that could harvest energy from the Earth’s geomagnetic field. Dinerman 7 – Taylor Dinerman, DoD Consultant, senior editor at the Gatestone Institute in New York. He specializes in the areas of space, missile defense and geopolitics affairs, July 16th, 2007, "Solar power satellites and space radar" http://integrator.hanscom.af.mil/2007/July/07262007/07262007-16.htm-http://integrator.hanscom.af.mil/2007/July/07262007/07262007-16.htm
One of the great showstoppers for the Space Radar (SR) program, formerly
AND
of future capability and less ambitious in terms of near-term operations. Marques 5 Marta Marti-Marques, Technical University of Valencia, Spain, "SPACE-BASED RADAR SYSTEM FOR GEOSTATIONARY DEBRIS DETECTION AND TRACKING AT MEO", 2005, www.iafastro.net/iac/archive/browse/IAC-05/B6/1/1965/
Since the first known satellite fragmentation occurred just four years after Sputnik 1 was successfully
AND
proposal and demonstrate its effectiveness in preserving the orbital environment for future generations. Weeden 9-30 – Brian Weeden, Bachelor’s in Science (B.S
AND The February 2009 collision between an active Iridium satellite and a dead Russian satellite was
AND
have been proposed, announced, attempted and subsequently killed with few results. Debris will knock out satellites and cause extinctionDunstan 9 – James, JD, Space and Technology Lawyer – Garvey Schubert Barer, and Berin Szoka, Senior Feelow – Progress and Freedom Foundation, Director – Space Frontier Foundation, and Member of the Commerical Space Transportation Advisory Committee – Federal Aviation Administration, "Beware Of Space Junk: Global Warming Isn’t the Only Major Environmental Problem",http://techliberation.com/2009/1t2/18/beware-of-space-junk-global-warming-isnt-the-only-major-environmental-problem/-http://techliberation.com/2009/1t2/18/beware-of-space-junk-global-warming-isnt-the-only-major-environmental-problem/
As world leaders meet in Copenhagen to consider drastic carbon emission restrictions that could require
AND
could run into the trillions—rivaling even some proposed climate change solutions. Lewis 4 (Jeffrey Lewis, postdoctoral fellow in the Advanced Methods of Cooperative Study Program; worked in the office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Center for Defense Information, "What if Space were Weaponized?" July 2004, http://www.cdi.org/PDFs/scenarios.pdf)
This is the second of two scenarios that consider how U.S. space
AND
to the con•dence that allows national nuclear forces to operate safely. Helfand and Pastore 9 | Presidents of Physicians for Social Responsibility (Ira and John, MD’s and Past Presidents of the Physicians for Social Responsbility, "US-Russia nuclear war still a threat," 3/31)
Since the end of the Cold War, many have acted as though the danger
AND
Presidents Obama and Medvedev can do this on their own by executive order. Hodges 11 (Jim Hodges, "Commanding the Arctic," C4ISR Journal, March 1, 2011, http://www.c4isrjournal.com/story.php?F=5508063)
It was simpler during the Cold War. The United States and Canada set up
AND
21.8 billion defense budget that some in Parliament want to reduce. Wallace %26 Staples 10 – Michael Wallace is Professor Emeritus at the University of British Columbia; Steven Staples is President of the Rideau Institute in Ottawa, March 2010, "Ridding the Arctic of Nuclear Weapons A Task Long Overdue", http://www.arcticsecurity.org/docs/arctic-nuclear-report-web.pdf
The fact is, the Arctic is becoming a zone of increased military competition.
AND
geo-political/economic significance of the Arctic because of climate change." Space radar is key to ISR—-solves naval effectiveness and dampens the impact of bioweapons attacksNational Research Council 5 – Committee on the Navy’s Needs in Space for Providing Future Capabilites, National Research Council. 2005. "The Navy’s Needs in Space for Providing Future Capabilities" www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11299-http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11299
~NSS = Naval Support System~
Today, strike targets are identified, classified, tracked, and geolocated through a
AND
specialized maritime radar experts, the operational Navy, and sthe SBR office. Ochs 2 | Past president of the Aberdeen Proving Ground Superfund Citizens Coalition, Member of the Depleted Uranium Task force of the Military Toxics Project, and M of the Chemical Weapons Working Group ~Richard Ochs, , June 9, 2002, "Biological Weapons Must Be Abolished Immediately," http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html-http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html~~
Of all the weapons of mass destruction, the genetically engineered biological weapons, many
AND
also allow easier use of US bioweapons? How slippery is this slope? Conway et al. 7 ~James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, "A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower," October, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf~~
No other disruption is as potentially disastrous to global stability as war among major powers
AND
and sustain forces, sea control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore. Hilley 8 – Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class (Monique, "Coalition Forces Work To Deter Piracy In Gulf Of Aden", The United States Department of the Navy, 1/17/09, Story Number: NNS090117-01, Online @ http://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=41897)
USS SAN ANTONIO, At sea (NNS) — Combined Task Force (CTF
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to create a lawful maritime order and develop security in the maritime environment. Middleton 8—Roger, consultant reseacher in the Africa Programme at the Chatham House, the Royal Institute of Economic Affairs, "Piracy in Somalia", October, http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Africa/1008piracysomalia.pdf-http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Africa/1008piracysomalia.pdf
Large oil tankers pass through the Gulf of Aden and the danger exists that a
AND - however, the possibility that they could destroy shipping is very real.
Ocean destruction causes extinctionCraig 3 (Robin, Professor of Law at Indiana, "Taking Steps," 34 McGeorge Law Review. 155, Lexis)
Biodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine ecosystems also exist, just as they
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- even if a few fishers go out of business as a result. |
| 01/13/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Wood 12 – Elisa Wood, contributer to Renewable Energy World, April 16th, 2012, "Race for Renewables’ Game-changers Heats Up" www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2012/04/race-for-game-changing-technology-intensifies-http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2012/04/race-for-game-changing-technology-intensifies
Virginia, U.S.A. — First comes invention then comes prosperity
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electricity and shipped to homes and businesses over existing transmission and distribution lines. SPS is key to global economic competitiveness – specifically in aerospace and manufacturingMatai 10 – DK Matai, PhD in Engineering, Chairman of the Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA), won The Queen’s Award for Enterprise in the category of Innovation for Bespoke Security Architecture in 2003, authority on countering complex global threats; strategic risk management %26 visualisation; contingency planning; Information Operations (IO); electronic defence; biometric authentication; secure payment systems and Open Source hardened kernel solutions, June 13th, 2010, "Japan Takes Lead in Wireless Power? 21stC Global Energy Supply," www.mi2g.com/cgi/mi2g/frameset.php?pageid=http%3Awww.mi2g.com/cgi/mi2g/press/130610.php-http://www.mi2g.com/cgi/mi2g/frameset.php?pageid=http%3A//www.mi2g.com/cgi/mi2g/press/130610.php
*note: WPT = wireless power transmission
Conclusion¶ The demand for power on Earth is growing exponentially, and associated environmental
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no turning back from this final frontier in the 21st century and beyond%21 SEC 8 – Space Enterprise Council, 2008, NSS, http://www.nss.org/settlement/ssp/library/2008-SECSpaceBasedSolarPowerWhitePaper.pdf
SBSP is unusual among renewable energy options because it might satisfy all four of the
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enhancement for, rather than a competitor with, terrestrial solar power generation. US competitiveness is key to hegemony and independently solves great power warBaru 9 – Sanjaya Baru is a Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School in Singapore Geopolitical Implications of the Current Global Financial Crisis, Strategic Analysis, Volume 33, Issue 2 March 2009 , pages 163 - 168
Hence, economic policies and performance do have strategic consequences.2 In the modern
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sustain economic growth and military power, the classic ’guns versus butter’ dilemma. SPS is key to technological innovation and leadershipWTC 11 – Want China Times, Online Journal of Space Communication, an international electronic journal, September 2nd, 2011, "China Unveils Plan for Solar Power Station in Space" spacejournal.ohio.edu/issue16/chinaunveils.html
"The development of a solar power station in space will fundamentally change the way
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significant progress and laid a sound foundation for a space solar power station. Technological leadership is key to science diplomacy – it creates international cooperation that independently de-escalates every impact and solves failed statesFederoff 8 – ina Fedoroff 8, Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary of State and the Administrator of USAID, Testimony Before the House Science Subcommittee on Research and Science Education, 4/2, http://www.state.gov/g/oes/rls/rm/102996.htm-http://www.state.gov/g/oes/rls/rm/102996.htm
Chairman Baird, Ranking Member Ehlers, and distinguished members of the Subcommittee, thank
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a means to enhance security, increase global partnerships, and create sustainability. AFC 3 – African Studies Centre et al, The Transnational Institute, The Center of Social Studies, Coimbra University, and The Peace Research Center – CIP-FUHEM, December 2007, "Failed and Collapsed States in the International System," http://www.tni.org/sites/www.tni.org/archives/reports/failedstates.pdf
In the malign scenario of global developments the number of collapsed states would grow significantly
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European states - could be faced with direct attacks on their national security. Segal 4 – Maurice R. Greenberg Senior Fellow in China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Foreign Affairs, November 2004 - December 2004, Is America Losing Its Edge?, Adam Segal, Pg. 2 Vol. 83 No. 6, Technology Enterprises in China.
The United States’ global primacy depends in large part on its ability to develop new
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, the United States must get better at fostering technological entrepreneurship at home. Barnett 11 – Thomas P.M. Barnett is Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis %26 Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, March 7th, 2011, "The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads," http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time of
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in all of its forms, deeply embedded in the geometry to come. Goldstein 7 – Professor of Global Politics and International Relations @ University of Pennsylvania "Power transitions, institutions, and China’s rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence," Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 30, Issue 4 %26 5 August 2007, pages 639 – 682
Two closely related, though distinct, theoretical arguments focus explicitly on the consequences for
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the period prior to the possible crossover.19 pg. 647-650 NSSO 7 – National Security Space Office, Report to the Director, October 10, 2007, "Space-Based Solar Power As an Opportunity for Strategic Security; Phase 0 Architecture Feasibility Study" http://www.nss.org/settlement/ssp/library/final-sbsp-interim-assessment-release-01.pdf
For the DoD specifically, beamed energy from space in quantities greater than 5 MWe
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due to energy scarcity by providing access to a strategically secure energy supply. Kagan %26 O’Hanlon 7 – Frederick Kagan and Michael O’Hanlon, Frederick Kagan is a resident scholar at AEI, AND* Michael O’Hanlon is a senior fellow in foreign policy at Brookings, "The Case for Larger Ground Forces", April 2007, http://www.aei.org/files/2007/04/24/20070424_Kagan20070424.pdf-http://www.aei.org/files/2007/04/24/20070424_Kagan20070424.pdf
We live at a time when wars not only rage in nearly every region but
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Such a measure is not only prudent, it is also badly overdue. |
| 01/13/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
====SPS is key to bistatic radar – this is key to countering stealth radar====
Johnson et al. 9 – W. Neil Johnson, Naval Research Laboratory,
AND Bistatic radar systems are generally well-suited to several specific applications where they outperform
AND
demand" capability as an adjunct to the SBSP’s primary power transmission mission. ====Existing Monostatic radar fails at addressing security threats====
Baker %26 Griffiths 5 – C J Baker, AND* H D Griffiths, University College London Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, 2005, "Bistatic and Multistatic Radar Sensors for Homeland Security," www.prometheus-inc.com/asi/sensors2005/papers/baker.pdf-http://www.prometheus-inc.com/asi/sensors2005/papers/baker.pdf
Radar has long been used in a variety of military and civilian applications and has
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necessarily well dealt with by current conventional radar systems and alternatives merit evaluation. Tanks 2k – David Tanks, analyst at the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, 2000, "Assessing the Cruise Missile Puzzle: How great a defense challenge?" www.ifpa.org/pdf/CM200/CM_Report.pdf-http://www.ifpa.org/pdf/CM200/CM_Report.pdf
As was noted in the Introduction, it is not expected that other states will
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, situations involving multiple receivers and a common transmission source are called multistatic.) Telegraph 11 – Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) Reinforced Point Of Contact (RPOC) Meeting, April 10, 2008, "Wikileaks Transcript Classified by ISN/MTR Director Pam Durham"
21. (C) Additionally, many countries are pursuing cruise missile programs as
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, often by drawing on all of us for various forms of facilitation. Martin et al. 6 – Andreas Arnold-Bos, Arnaud Martin, Ali Khenchaf, members of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers and analysts at Ecole Nationale Superieure des Ingenieurs des Etudes et Techniques de l’Armement (ENSIETA), a French laboratory, 2006, "A Versatile Bistatic %26 Polarimetric Marine Radar Simulator" www.arnaud.martin.free.fr/publi/ARNOLD_06a.pdf-http://www.arnaud.martin.free.fr/publi/ARNOLD_06a.pdf
On an average day, more than a hundred and fifty ships transit through the
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, especially with uncommon, yet promising, configurations such as bistatic radar. Barraca 10—Sara, Dialogo News, Drug Trafficking Damaging Amazon Basin, Diálogo is a professional military magazine published quarterly by the Commander of the United States Southern Command as an international forum for military personnel in Latin America, 3/12, www.dialogo-americas.com/en_GB/articles/rmisa/features/regional_news/2010/12/03/feature-01-http://www.dialogo-americas.com/en_GB/articles/rmisa/features/regional_news/2010/12/03/feature-01
Drug trafficking organizations are causing significant damage to the Amazon rain forest and watershed in
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and water sources and loss of aquatic resources (fish)," he said. Takacs 96—Takacs, David, 1996 Philosophies of Paradise, The Johns Hopkins Univ. Pr., Baltimore.
"Habitat destruction and conversion are eliminating species at such a frightening pace that extinction
AND
the famines could lead to a thermonuclear war, which could extinguish civilization."" Science Daily 11 (Citing Prof Michel Loreau, PhD Ecologist, and Prof Michael Scherer-Lorenzen, PhD and Professor @ University of Freiburg, " Biodiversity Key to Earth’s Life-Support Functions in a Changing World," Aug 11, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110811084513.htm)
ScienceDaily (Aug. 11, 2011) — The biological diversity of organisms on
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diversity is thus a crucial factor in maintaining Earth’s life-support functions. Axe 11 – David Axe, war zone reporter, June 7th, 2011, "China, Russia Could Make U.S. Stealth Tech Obsolete" www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/06/stealth-tech-obsolete/-http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/06/stealth-tech-obsolete/
Stealth technology — which today gives U.S. jets the nearly unparalleled ability
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the Air Force’s stealth gamble could turn into very, very long odds. Perception of credible air power is key to the global commons and independently de-escalates conflict – the alternative is regional instability and miscalculationEaglen %26 Birkey 12 – Mackenzie Eaglen is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, AND* Douglas A. Birkey is the director for government relations at the Air Force Association, March 21st, 2012, "Nearing coffin corner: US air power on the edge" aei.org/outlook/foreign-and-defense-policy/defense/nearing-coffin-corner-us-air-power-on-the-edge/
Air power presents many opportunities for cultivating these associations. Whether conducting training exercises,
AND
such investments encourages regional instability that may lead to miscalculation and ultimately conflict. Schanz 8 – Mark V. Schanz, Associate Editor of Airforce Magazine, 2008, "Strategic Alaska," http://www.airforce-magazine.com/MagazineArchive/Pages/2008/November%202008/1108alaska.aspx
More than ever before, the Air Force is paying close attention to its force
AND
commanders in the region say the moves have to be kept in perspective. Wallace %26 Staples 10 – Michael Wallace is Professor Emeritus at the University of British Columbia; Steven Staples is President of the Rideau Institute in Ottawa, March 2010, "Ridding the Arctic of Nuclear Weapons A Task Long Overdue", http://www.arcticsecurity.org/docs/arctic-nuclear-report-web.pdf
The fact is, the Arctic is becoming a zone of increased military competition.
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geo-political/economic significance of the Arctic because of climate change." |
| 01/13/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
====SPS is key to UAV effectiveness====
Johnson et al. 9 – W. Neil Johnson, Naval Research Laboratory,
AND Current long-duration solar-powered UAV systems, while demonstrated to be feasible
AND
m 2 controlled area limit of exposure currently accepted as human-safe. ====Now is key – the next generation of UAVs is coming to deal with growing threats ====
Reed 12 – John Reed graduated from the University of New Hampshire with a dual
AND
/07/31/the_next_generation_of_uavs
In an example of how the next-generation of stealthy UAV will be here
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adapted to perform a wide variety of missions over the last fifty years.) UAVs in Pakistan are inevitable and key to quelling the insurgencyBergen %26 Tiedemann 11 – Peter Bergen, Director of the National Security Studies Program at the New America Foundation AND* Katherine Tiedemann, research fellow at the New America Foundation, July/August 2011, "Washington’s Phantom War," Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67939/peter-bergen-and-katherine-tiedemann/washingtons-phantom-war?page=show
Despite the drone program’s shortcomings, it is likely to continue-put simply,
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once said, the drone program is "the only game in town." Pitt 9 – William Rivers Pitt, Political Activist Specializing on the War on Terror and New York Times and Internationally Bestselling Author of "War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn’t Want You to Know," and "The Greatest Sedition is Silence" "Unstable Pakistan threatens the world," May 8th, 2009, http://www.arabamericannews.com/news/index.php?mod=article%26cat=commentary%26article=2183 But a suicide bomber in Pakistan rammed a car packed with explosives into a jeep
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to be gravely serious about addressing the situation. So should we all. ====UAVs are key to Alaskan air power====
Anderson 12 – Ben Anderson, writer for the Alaska Dispatch, February 13th, 2012, "Unmanned aerial drones the future of Arctic reconnaissance?" www.alaskadispatch.com/article/unmanned-aerial-drones-future-arctic-reconnaissance?page=full-http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/unmanned-aerial-drones-future-arctic-reconnaissance?page=full
But there’s a softer, friendlier side to UAVs — they’re not all the terrifying
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flung Arctic regions — played a big role in the bill’s Arctic language. Schanz 8 – Mark V. Schanz, Associate Editor of Airforce Magazine, 2008, "Strategic Alaska," http://www.airforce-magazine.com/MagazineArchive/Pages/2008/November%202008/1108alaska.aspx
More than ever before, the Air Force is paying close attention to its force
AND
commanders in the region say the moves have to be kept in perspective. Wallace %26 Staples 10 – Michael Wallace is Professor Emeritus at the University of British Columbia; Steven Staples is President of the Rideau Institute in Ottawa, March 2010, "Ridding the Arctic of Nuclear Weapons A Task Long Overdue", http://www.arcticsecurity.org/docs/arctic-nuclear-report-web.pdf
The fact is, the Arctic is becoming a zone of increased military competition.
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geo-political/economic significance of the Arctic because of climate change." ====Alaskan UAVs solve environmental problems and oil spills in the Arctic====
Anderson 12 – Ben Anderson, writer for the Alaska Dispatch, February 13th, 2012, "Unmanned aerial drones the future of Arctic reconnaissance?" www.alaskadispatch.com/article/unmanned-aerial-drones-future-arctic-reconnaissance?page=full-http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/unmanned-aerial-drones-future-arctic-reconnaissance?page=full
Walker said that Alaska’s unique need for UAV technology — particularly in far-flung
AND
able to fly in poor weather conditions, which would ground manned aircraft." O’Rourke 12 – Ronal O’Rourke, specialist in naval affairs, June 15th, 2012, "Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress" http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41153.pdf
No oil spill is entirely benign. Even a relatively minor spill, depending on
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the species have longer life spans and reproduce at a slower rate.95 CAFF 98 – Biodiversity Working group of the Arctic Council, Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna, September 1998, "Strategic Plan for the Conservation of Arctic Biological Diversity" http://arcticportal.org/uploads/RX/zN/RXzNc4KU8QKfhN_KDw_oQQ/The-StrategicPlanforTheConservofArcticBiolDiv.pdf
The species of the Arctic are important for their own sake and for their value
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these species may require co-operative efforts with non-Arctic countries. ====SPS is key to micro-UAVs====
Leet et al. 12 – Kevin Gu, James Leet, Amit Alon, Manpreet Singh, engineering department at CalTech, June 7th, 2012, "E/ME 103 Final Report" www.pickar.caltech.edu/e103/papers/Micro%20UAVs.pdf-http://www.pickar.caltech.edu/e103/papers/Micro UAVs.pdf
We believe that the key technological breakthrough for micro-UAV’s will be the development
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increase the role of micro-UAV’s in both military and commercial applications. Abatti 5 – James M. Abatti, USAF Major, the Center for Strategy and Technology, Air War College, Air University, November 2005, "Small Power: The Role of Micro and Small UAVs in the Future" www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cst/bugs_ch06.pdf-http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cst/bugs_ch06.pdf
No longer are micro and small UAVs of limited utility for military operations. Technological
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micro and small UAVs will be an integral part of the USAF’s arsenal. Perception of credible air power de-escalates conflict – the alternative is global instability and miscalculationEaglen %26 Birkey 12 – Mackenzie Eaglen is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, AND* Douglas A. Birkey is the director for government relations at the Air Force Association, March 21st, 2012, "Nearing coffin corner: US air power on the edge" aei.org/outlook/foreign-and-defense-policy/defense/nearing-coffin-corner-us-air-power-on-the-edge/
Air power presents many opportunities for cultivating these associations. Whether conducting training exercises,
AND
such investments encourages regional instability that may lead to miscalculation and ultimately conflict. Airpower prevents nuclear war and bioweapons in AsiaKhalilzad %26 Lesser 98 – Zalmay Khalilzad, Counselor at CSIS, President of Khalilzad Associates, and Former US Ambassador to the UN AND* Ian Lesser, PhD Senior Transatlantic Fellow @ the German Marshall Fund, 1998, "Sources of Conflict in the 21st Century," p.164-165
The first key implication derived from the analysis of trends in Asia suggests that American
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air power will of necessity be the primary instruments constituting the American response. Ochs 2 – Richard Ochs, former president of the Aberdeen Proving Ground Superfund Citizens Coalition, Member of the Depleted Uranium Task force of the Military Toxics Project, and M of the Chemical Weapons Working Group, June 9, 2002, "Biological Weapons Must Be Abolished Immediately," http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html-http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html
Of all the weapons of mass destruction, the genetically engineered biological weapons, many
AND
also allow easier use of US bioweapons? How slippery is this slope? |
| 01/13/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Donley %26 Schwartz 12 – Michael Donley, Secretary of the Air Force AND* Norton Schwartz, USAF General, Jan 31st, 2012, "Energy Horizons: United States Air Force Energy S%26T Vision 2011-2026,"
The Air Force faces daunting energy challenges which promise only to increase in severity given
AND
, environmentally, and renewably), and secure now and in the future. Garretson 12 – Lt Col Peter Garretson is an airpower strategist currently serving on the CSAF’s Strategic Studies Group (HAF/CK). His previous assignment was at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi as an Air Force Fellow examining Indo–US long-term space collaboration under the sponsorship of the Council on Foreign Relations. Prior to that he was the chief of future science and technology exploration for the HQ USAF Directorate of Strategic Planning (AF/A8XC), Spring 2012, "Solar Power in Space?" Strategic Studies Quarterly Spring, http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2012/spring/garretson.pdf-http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2012/spring/garretson.pdf
But so far at least, the reaction seems more consistent with the worry expressed
AND
but also undermines the dedication and determination of any competitors and adversaries." 31 Arkin 12 – Editor, NBC Universal (Daniel, 2/22/12, "Air Force Plans Nuke-Powered Spacecraft, Space-Based Power Stations", http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/tech/NATL-Report-US-Air-Force-Plans-Energy-Revolution-139967283.html)
The ~USAF~ United States Air Force plans to institute revolutionary changes over the
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advancements in the SBPS method could be completely revolutionary, the report says. Dunlap 6 – Maj. General, deputy judge advocate of the Air Force, National War College graduate with over 30 years of Armed Forces Experience, Charles Jr., Armed Forces Journal, "America’s Asymmetric Advantage", http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2006/09/2009013
So where does that leave us? If we are smart, we will have
AND
), the very existence of the U.S. is at risk. Barnett 11 – Thomas P.M. Barnett is Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis %26 Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, March 7th, 2011, "The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads," http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time of
AND
in all of its forms, deeply embedded in the geometry to come. Goldstein 7 – Professor of Global Politics and International Relations @ University of Pennsylvania "Power transitions, institutions, and China’s rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence," Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 30, Issue 4 %26 5 August 2007, pages 639 – 682
Two closely related, though distinct, theoretical arguments focus explicitly on the consequences for
AND
the period prior to the possible crossover.19 pg. 647-650 ====US-China war causes extinction====
Strait Times 2k (Ching Cheong, Senior Journalist with The Strait Times, "No one gains in a war over Taiwan," June 25th, Lexis)
THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war escalating into a full
AND
should that come to pass, we would see the destruction of civilization. ====Air power is key to US-Asia alliances and an effective Asia pivot====
Lowther 11 – Dr. Adam B. Lowther is a member of the faculty at the U.S Air Force’s Air University. November 22nd, 2011, "Why U.S. Needs Airpower Diplomacy," thediplomat.com/2011/11/22/why-u-s-needs-airpower-diplomacy/?all=true
What makes affording a shift to the region particularly difficult is the fact that the
AND
sensitive, and responsive to the requirements of a complex and changing region. Colby 11 – Elbridge Colby, research analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, served as policy advisor to the Secretary of Defense’s Representative to the New START talks, expert advisor to the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission, August 10, 2011, "Why the U.S. Needs its Liberal Empire," The Diplomat, online: http://the-diplomat.com/2011/08/10/why-us-needs-its-liberal-empire/2/?print=yes
But the pendulum shouldn’t be allowed to swing too far toward an incautious retrenchment.
AND
The ability and will to intervene is too important to be so wasted. Tow 7 – William T. Tow is Professor, Department of International Relations, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, the Australian National University. AND* Amitav Acharya is Professor of Global Governance, Department of Politics, University of Bristol. December 2007, "Obstinate or obsolete? The US alliance structure in the Asia–Pacific" ips.cap.anu.edu.au/ir/pubs/work_papers/07-4.pdf
The above observation leads to a third explanation for US bilateral alliance persistence in the
AND
seas—an activity North Korea perceives as directly aimed against itself. 59 Lyon 9 (December, Program Director, Strategy and International, with Australian Strategic Policy Institute, previously a Senior Lecturer in International Relations at the University of Queensland, "A delicate issue, Asia’s nuclear future")
Deterrence relationships in Asia won’t look like East–West deterrence. They won’t be
AND
the numbers and locations of weapons to minimise the vulnerability of their arsenals. Kaplan 11 – Robert D. Kaplan 11 is senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, national correspondent for the Atlantic, and a member of the U.S. Defense Department’s Defense Policy Board, September/October 2011, "The South China Sea Is the Future of Conflict," online: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/15/the_south_china_sea_is_the_future_of_conflict?print=yes%26hidecomments=yes%26page=full
The South China Sea joins the Southeast Asian states with the Western Pacific, functioning
AND
Taiwan one, Vietnam 25, the Philippines eight, and Malaysia five. Collapse of Asian trade causes US draw-in and global nuclear warAuslin 9 – Michael Auslin 9, resident scholar at AEI, "Averting Disaster", The Daily Standard, 2/6, http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.29339/pub_detail.asp
As they deal with a collapsing world economy, policymakers in Washington and around the
AND
types of miscalculation and greed that have destroyed international systems in the past. |
| 01/13/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: It’s happening and is anthropogenic—-reject negative evidenceProthero 12 ~Donald R. Prothero, Professor of Geology at Occidental College and Lecturer in Geobiology at the California Institute of Technology, 3-1-2012, "How We Know Global Warming is Real and Human Caused," Skeptic, 17.2, EBSCO~
How do we know that global warming is real and primarily human caused? There
AND
change when it threatens their survival. Neither can we as a society. Nuccitelli 12 – Dana, environmental scientist at a private environmental consulting firm in Sacramento and has a Bachelor’s Degree in astrophysics from the University of California at Berkeley, and a Master’s Degree in physics from the University of California at Davis, 2012, "Realistically What Might The Future Climate Look Like?", http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/09/01/784931/realistically-what-might-the-future-climate-look-like/
This is Why Reducing Emissions is Critical¶ We’re not yet committed to surpassing 2
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Earth than today’s, but we still can and must limit the damage. Scientific consensus proves warming is real, anthropogenic, and causes extinction – SPS solvesFlournoy 12 – Dan Flournoy, PhD and MA from the University of Texas, Former Dean of the University College at Ohio University, Former Associate Dean at State University of New York and Case Institute of Technology, Project Manager for University/Industry Experiments for the NASA ACTS Satellite, Currently Professor of Telecommunications at Scripps College of Communications @ Ohio University, January 2012, "Solar Power Satellites," Springer Briefs in Space Development
In the Online Journal of Space Communication , Dr. Feng Hsu, a NASA
AND
our Sun" (Hsu 2010 ) (Fig . 2.1 ). Sify, Citing Professors @ University of Queensland and North Carolina, 10 (Sify News, Citing Ove Hoegh-Gulberg, Professor @ University of Queensland and Director of the Global Change Institute AND Citing John Bruno, Associate Professor of Marine Science @ UNC, "Could unbridled climate changes lead to human extinction?," June 19th, http://www.sify.com/news/could-unbridled-climate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html-http://www.sify.com/news/could-unbridled-climate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html) Sydney: Scientists have sounded alarm bells about how growing concentrations of greenhouse gases are
AND
undergoing massive change and in some cases beginning to fail’, he added. Warming magnifies all impacts and makes global conflicts inevitableGinsborg et al. 12 – Mikkel Funder, Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde and Ida Peters Ginsborg - in collaboration with Nanna Callisen Bang, Denmark Institute for International Studies, 2012, "ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT IN DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION EXPERIENCES FROM NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT" www.diis.dk/graphics/Publications/Reports2012/RP2012-04-Addressing-climate-change_web.jpg.pdf
2.2 Climate change as a conflict multiplier¶ Climate change is therefore best
AND
actors such as governments – thereby increasing the risk and intensity of conflict. Fuerth 8 – Fuerth, Research Professor of International Affairs at George Washington University, former National Security Advisor to VP Al Gore, 2008, Leon, Severe Climate Change over the Next Thirty Years, In Climatic Cataclysm, p. 142
In sub-Saharan Africa, hundreds of millions of already vulnerable persons will be
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, severe climate change will become the common denominator of turbulence and destruction. Glick 7 Caroline Glick 7, deputy managing editor of The Jerusalem Post, Senior Fellow for Middle East Affairs of the Center for Security Policy, "Condi’s African holiday", December 11, http://www.rightsidenews.com/20071211309/editorial/us-opinion-and-editorial/our-world-condis-african-holiday.html
The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and strategically vital place. Small wars, which rage continuously, can easily escalate into big wars. Local conflicts have regional and global aspects. All of the conflicts in this tinderbox, which controls shipping lanes from the Indian Ocean into the Red Sea, can potentially give rise to regional, and indeed global conflagrations between competing regional actors and global powers. Flournoy 12 – Don Flournoy, PhD and MA from the University of Texas, Former Dean of the University College at Ohio University, Former Associate Dean at State University of New York and Case Institute of Technology, Project Manager for University/Industry Experiments for the NASA ACTS Satellite, Currently Professor of Telecommunications at Scripps College of Communications at Ohio University, "Solar Power Satellites," January, Springer Briefs in Space Development, Book
One of the obvious opportunities for solar power satellites is to become an on-
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Sunsat business to guarantee a sustainable night-and-day fuel source. Flournoy 12 – Don Flournoy, PhD and MA from the University of Texas, Former Dean of the University College at Ohio University, Former Associate Dean at State University of New York and Case Institute of Technology, Project Manager for University/Industry Experiments for the NASA ACTS Satellite, Currently Professor of Telecommunications at Scripps College of Communications at Ohio University, "Solar Power Satellites," January, Springer Briefs in Space Development, Book
Alternative terrestrial energy is not the complete answer, either. According to Woodcock,
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SSP does not provide potential targets for terrorists (National Space Society 2008 ). Ritter 11-24 – Karl Ritter, reporter for the Huffington Post, November 24th, 2012, "U.N. Climate Talks: Will U.S. Take More Central Role After Bout Of Extreme Weather?" www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/24/un-climate-un-qatar-united-states_n_2184357.html?view=print%26comm_ref=false-http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/24/un-climate-un-qatar-united-states_n_2184357.html?view=print%26comm_ref=false
"I think there will be expectations from countries to hear a new voice from
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scientist at Climate Analytics, a non-profit organization based in Berlin. Kammen 7 – Professor of Public Policy @ UC Berkeley (Daniel, "Green Jobs Created by Global Warming Initiative," September 25th, http://www.unep.org/civil_society/GCSF9/pdfs/karmen-senate.pdf)
In addition to supporting domestic job creation, clean energy is an important and fastest
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and the actions of a number of emerging economies to ’go green’. Fossil fuel dependence is unsustainable – only SPS-ALPHA solves world energy needs and can be exported globallyDvorsky 11-28 – George Dvorsky, writer for Io9, a daily science and technology publication, November 28th, 2012, "How space-based solar power will solve all our energy needs" io9.com/5963955/how-space+based-solar-power-will-solve-all-our-energy-needs
Humanity’s demand for energy is growing at an astonishing rate. Combine this with an
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200 kilograms), allowing all pieces to be mass produced at low cost. |
| 02/24/2013 | Tournament: Districts | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Li %26 Nie 9 – Li Bin, director of Arms Control Program at the Institute of International Studies, Tsinghua University; and Nie Hongyi, officer in the People’s Liberation Army with an MA from China’s National Defense University and a Ph.D. in International Studies from Tsinghua University, 5/22/9, "An Investigation of China – U.S. Strategic Stability," http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/nwgs/Li-and-Nie-translation-final-5-22-09.pdf-http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/nwgs/Li-and-Nie-translation-final-5-22-09.pdf
The mobility of China’s nuclear weapons raises the survivability of Chinese nuclear weapons and thereby
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escaped tracking. This increases difficulties for decision-makers on both sides. Li 7 Bin, director of Arms Control Program at the Institute of International Studies, Tsinghua University, "Tracking Chinese Strategic Mobile Missiles," Science and Global Security, Vol. 15, p. 1-30
Long-range weapons can be divided into two categories: nuclear and nonnuclear.
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missiles. This analysis will focus mainly on space radar in SMTI mode. Nuclear primacy’s key to hegemony—-makes unipolarity durable and deters great power competitionCraig 9 – Campbell Craig, Professor of International Relations at the University of Southampton, 2009, "American power preponderance and the nuclear revolution," Review of International Studies, Vol. 35, p. 35-36
As Keir Lieber and Daryl Press have suggested, the US may be on the
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factor, and show how the nuclear revolution specifically reinforces each of them. Barnett 11 – Thomas P.M. Barnett is Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis %26 Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, March 7th, 2011, "The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads," http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time of
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in all of its forms, deeply embedded in the geometry to come. Lieber and Press 7 - Keir A. Lieber, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame, and Daryl G. Press, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania, Winter 2007, "U.S. Nuclear Primacy and the Future of the Chinese Deterrent," China Security, Issue No. 5, online: http://www.wsichina.org/cs5_5.pdf
Ironically, one of the clearest explanations for how the United States may use nuclear
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its nuclear force – or even attacking Taiwan – in the first place. Glaser 11 Professor of Political Science and International Affairs – George Washington University, "Will China’s Rise Lead to War?" Foreign Affairs Vol. 9 Iss. 2, March/April
THE PROSPECTS for avoiding intense military competition and war may be good, but growth
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military efforts and a general poisoning of U.S.-Chinese relations. Lieber %26 Press, November-December 9 - Keir A. Lieber, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame, and Daryl G. Press, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania, November-December 2009, "The Nukes We Need: Preserving the American Deterrent," Foreign Affairs, p. 39-41
Unfortunately, deterrence in the twenty-first century may be far more difficult for
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-yield weapons—as it cuts the size of its nuclear force. |
| 03/11/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
The Department of Defense should acquire electricity in the United States produced from solar power satellite rectenna conversion. |
| 03/29/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 1 | Opponent: | Judge: Warming Advantage
It’s real and is anthropogenic—-contrary evidence is unqualified and funded by fossil fuel hacks
Prothero 12 ~[Donald R. Prothero, Professor of Geology at Occidental College and Lecturer in Geobiology at the California Institute of Technology, 3-1-2012, "How We Know Global Warming is Real and Human Caused," Skeptic, 17.2, EBSCO~]
How do we know that global warming is real and primarily human caused? There
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change when it threatens their survival. Neither can we as a society. Reducing emissions now is critical to prevent catastrophic warming
Nuccitelli 12 – Dana, environmental scientist at a private environmental consulting firm in Sacramento and has a Bachelor’s Degree in astrophysics from the University of California at Berkeley, and a Master’s Degree in physics from the University of California at Davis, 2012, "Realistically What Might The Future Climate Look Like?", http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/09/01/784931/realistically-what-might-the-future-climate-look-like/
This is Why Reducing Emissions is Critical¶ We’re not yet committed to surpassing 2
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Earth than today’s, but we still can and must limit the damage.
Extinction
Flournoy 12 – Dan Flournoy, PhD and MA from the University of Texas, Former Dean of the University College at Ohio University, Former Associate Dean at State University of New York and Case Institute of Technology, Project Manager for University/Industry Experiments for the NASA ACTS Satellite, Currently Professor of Telecommunications at Scripps College of Communications @ Ohio University, January 2012, "Solar Power Satellites," Springer Briefs in Space Development
In the Online Journal of Space Communication , Dr. Feng Hsu, a NASA
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our Sun" (Hsu 2010 ) (Fig . 2.1 ).
CO2 emissions will destroy the ocean—-extinction
Sify, Citing Professors @ University of Queensland and North Carolina, 10 (Sify News, Citing Ove Hoegh-Gulberg, Professor @ University of Queensland and Director of the Global Change Institute AND Citing John Bruno, Associate Professor of Marine Science @ UNC, "Could unbridled climate changes lead to human extinction?," June 19th, http://www.sify.com/news/could-unbridled-climate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html-http://www.sify.com/news/could-unbridled-climate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html)
Sydney: Scientists have sounded alarm bells about how growing concentrations of greenhouse gases are
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undergoing massive change and in some cases beginning to fail’, he added. Warming magnifies all impacts and makes global conflicts inevitable
Ginsborg et al. 12 – Mikkel Funder, Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde and Ida Peters Ginsborg - in collaboration with Nanna Callisen Bang, Denmark Institute for International Studies, 2012, "ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT IN DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION EXPERIENCES FROM NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT" www.diis.dk/graphics/Publications/Reports2012/RP2012-04-Addressing-climate-change_web.jpg.pdf
2.2 Climate change as a conflict multiplier¶ Climate change is therefore best
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actors such as governments – thereby increasing the risk and intensity of conflict. SPS facilitates transition away from fossil fuels
Flournoy 12 – Don Flournoy, PhD and MA from the University of Texas, Former Dean of the University College at Ohio University, Former Associate Dean at State University of New York and Case Institute of Technology, Project Manager for University/Industry Experiments for the NASA ACTS Satellite, Currently Professor of Telecommunications at Scripps College of Communications at Ohio University, "Solar Power Satellites," January, Springer Briefs in Space Development, Book
One of the obvious opportunities for solar power satellites is to become an on-
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Sunsat business to guarantee a sustainable night-and-day fuel source. Fossil fuel dependence is unsustainable—-only SPS solves world energy needs and can be exported globally
Dvorsky 11-28 – George Dvorsky, writer for Io9, a daily science and technology publication, November 28th, 2012, "How space-based solar power will solve all our energy needs" io9.com/5963955/how-space+based-solar-power-will-solve-all-our-energy-needs
Humanity’s demand for energy is growing at an astonishing rate. Combine this with an
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200 kilograms), allowing all pieces to be mass produced at low cost.
Terrestrial alternatives fail—-only SPS can meet global demand
Flournoy 12 – Don Flournoy, PhD and MA from the University of Texas, Former Dean of the University College at Ohio University, Former Associate Dean at State University of New York and Case Institute of Technology, Project Manager for University/Industry Experiments for the NASA ACTS Satellite, Currently Professor of Telecommunications at Scripps College of Communications at Ohio University, "Solar Power Satellites," January, Springer Briefs in Space Development, Book
Alternative terrestrial energy is not the complete answer, either. According to Woodcock,
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SSP does not provide potential targets for terrorists (National Space Society 2008 ).
The plan solves for global emissions
Kammen 7 – Professor of Public Policy @ UC Berkeley (Daniel, "Green Jobs Created by Global Warming Initiative," September 25th, http://www.unep.org/civil_society/GCSF9/pdfs/karmen-senate.pdf)
In addition to supporting domestic job creation, clean energy is an important and fastest
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and the actions of a number of emerging economies to ’go green’.
Space Radar Advantage
Energy shortages in the Air Force prevent space radar development—-SPS is key
David 12 – Leonard David has been reporting on the space industry for more than five decades. He is a winner of last year’s National Space Club Press Award and a past editor-in-chief of the National Space Society’s Ad Astra and Space World magazines. He has written for SPACE.com since 1999. February 22nd, 2012, "Air Force Eyes Nuclear Reactors, Beamed Power for Spacecraft," html
For example, the Air Force is currently limited to 27 kilowatt (kW)
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such as space tethers that could harvest energy from the Earth’s geomagnetic field.
SPS solves for space radar motive and capability —- key to ISR and space situational awareness
Dinerman 7 – Taylor Dinerman, DoD Consultant, senior editor at the Gatestone Institute in New York. He specializes in the areas of space, missile defense and geopolitics affairs, July 16th, 2007, "Solar power satellites and space radar" http://integrator.hanscom.af.mil/2007/July/07262007/07262007-16.htm-http://integrator.hanscom.af.mil/2007/July/07262007/07262007-16.htm
One of the great showstoppers for the Space Radar (SR) program, formerly
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of future capability and less ambitious in terms of near-term operations.
Space radar is key to the navy and effective ballistic missile defense
National Research Council 5 – Committee on the Navy’s Needs in Space for Providing Future Capabilites, National Research Council. 2005. "The Navy’s Needs in Space for Providing Future Capabilities" php?record_id=11299
~[NSS = Naval Support System~]
Today, strike targets are identified, classified, tracked, and geolocated through a
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specialized maritime radar experts, the operational Navy, and sthe SBR office.
Collapse of the naval effectiveness causes great power wars
Conway et al. 7 ~[James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, "A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower," October, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf~~]
No other disruption is as potentially disastrous to global stability as war among major powers
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and sustain forces, sea control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.
Naval power is key to hegemony—-no defense applies
Cropsey 12 – Seth Cropsey, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, 4/18/12, "The U.S. Navy Shipbuilding Plan: Assumptions and Associated Risks to National Security," http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/SethCropsey—USNavyShipbuildingPlan—Testimony041812.pdf
Unlike the U.S. whose seapower has protected global sea lanes that other
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political liberty would benefit for the remainder of this century. Thank you.
Hegemony prevents global nuclear war
Barnett 11 – Thomas P.M. Barnett is Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis %26 Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, March 7th, 2011, "The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads," http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time of
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in all of its forms, deeply embedded in the geometry to come.
Perception of decline causes US lashout—-triggers hegemonic wars
Goldstein 7 – Professor of Global Politics and International Relations @ University of Pennsylvania "Power transitions, institutions, and China’s rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence," Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 30, Issue 4 %26 5 August 2007, pages 639 – 682
Two closely related, though distinct, theoretical arguments focus explicitly on the consequences for
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the period prior to the possible crossover.19 pg. 647-650
Space radar is key to make missile defense effective—-prevents Taiwan War and Russia aggression
Pappalardo 8 – Joe Pappalardo, Popular Mechanics, January 28th, 2008, "From Space to Sea, New Radar Tech Could Shift Military Might" www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military/navy-ships/4246901
This month Lockheed Martin released a 280-word statement from its radar research headquarters
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of space navigation systems using GPS satellites as reference points from high orbits.
Taiwan escalates and goes nuclear—-no defense
William Lowther 3-16, Taipei Times, citing a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3/16/13, "Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report," http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211-http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211
Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China and the US, a new academic report concludes.
"Taiwan remains the single most plausible and dangerous source of tension and conflict between the US and China," says the 42-page report by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Prepared by the CSIS’ Project on Nuclear Issues and resulting from a year-long study, the report emphasizes that Beijing continues to be set on a policy to prevent Taiwan’s independence, while at the same time the US maintains the capability to come to Taiwan’s defense.
"Although tensions across the Taiwan Strait have subsided since both Taipei and Beijing embraced a policy of engagement in 2008, the situation remains combustible, complicated by rapidly diverging cross-strait military capabilities and persistent political disagreements," the report says.
In a footnote, it quotes senior fellow at the US Council on Foreign Relations Richard Betts describing Taiwan as "the main potential flashpoint for the US in East Asia."
The report also quotes Betts as saying that neither Beijing nor Washington can fully control developments that might ignite a Taiwan crisis.
"This is a classic recipe for surprise, miscalculation and uncontrolled escalation," Betts wrote in a separate study of his own.
The CSIS study says: "For the foreseeable future Taiwan is the contingency in which nuclear weapons would most likely become a major factor, because the fate of the island is intertwined both with the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party and the reliability of US defense commitments in the Asia-Pacific region."
Titled Nuclear Weapons and US-China Relations, the study says disputes in the East and South China seas appear unlikely to lead to major conflict between China and the US, but they do "provide kindling" for potential conflict between the two nations because the disputes implicate a number of important regional interests, including the interests of treaty allies of the US.
The danger posed by flashpoints such as Taiwan, the Korean Peninsula and maritime demarcation disputes is magnified by the potential for mistakes, the study says.
"Although Beijing and Washington have agreed to a range of crisis management mechanisms, such as the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement and the establishment of a direct hotline between the Pentagon and the Ministry of Defense, the bases for miscommunication and misunderstanding remain and draw on deep historical reservoirs of suspicion," the report says.
For example, it says, it is unclear whether either side understands what kinds of actions would result in a military or even nuclear response by the other party.
To make things worse, "neither side seems to believe the other’s declared policies and intentions, suggesting that escalation management, already a very uncertain endeavor, could be especially difficult in any conflict," it says.
Although conflict "mercifully" seems unlikely at this point, the report concludes that "it cannot be ruled out and may become increasingly likely if we are unwise or unlucky."
The report says: "With both sides possessing and looking set to retain formidable nuclear weapons arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating."
Russia aggression goes nuclear
Blank 9 – Dr. Stephen Blank is a Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March 2009, "Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?" http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf
Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia can then deter regional or intercontinental attacks
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perhaps make wars of aggression on their neighbors or their own people.172
Missile defense deployment is inevitable but ineffective now—-new upgrades are key to counter global threats including North Korea
Huessy 3/8 – Peter R. Huessy, Senior Defense Consultant Associate at the National Defense University Foundation (NDUF) and President of GeoStrategic Analysis, March 8th, 2013, "Missile Defense Now More Important Than Ever" www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2013/03/08/missile-defense-now-more-important-than-ever
Missile defense approaches its 30th anniversary with both great accomplishments behind it and great challenges
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to deploy, especially as we see threats emerge from Hezbollah to China.
There’s a high risk of North Korean strikes now
Cornwell 3-26 – Rupert Cornwell, won two British Press Awards as a journalist, previously foreign correspondent for the Financial Times and Reuters, has also been a diplomatic correspondent, served as Washington Bureau Editor. March 26th, 2013, "North Korean missiles ’on highest alert’ to attack US bases on mainland America, Hawaii and Guam " www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/north-korean-missiles-on-highest-alert-to-attack-us-bases-on-mainland-america-hawaii-and-guam-8549318.html
Tensions on the Korean peninsula escalated further today as North Korea announced it had placed
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have to do something to show there is real menace behind the bluster.
Extinction
Chol 11 Kim Myong Chol is author of a number of books and papers in Korean, Japanese and English on North Korea, including Kim Jong-il’s Strategy for Reunification. He has a PhD from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s Academy of Social Sciences "Dangerous games" Aug 20 www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/MH20Dg01.html
The divided and heavily armed Korean Peninsula remains the most inflammable global flashpoint, with
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each spewing as much radioactive fallout as 150-180 H-bombs.
Plan
The Department of Defense should acquire electricity in the United States produced from solar power satellite rectenna conversion.
Solvency DOD wants SPS—-procurement rapidly accelerates commercial development
Lemonick 9 – Michael D. Lemonick is the senior writer at Climate Central,
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from_space_moving_beyond_science_fiction/2184/
But the military’s interest in SBSP could give a major boost to the technology.
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of Energy — that would have a stake in space-based power.
Procurement makes SPS economically feasible and catalyzes investment
NSSO 7 – National Security Space Office, Report to the Director, October 10, 2007, "Space-Based Solar Power As an Opportunity for Strategic Security; Phase 0 Architecture Feasibility Study" http://www.nss.org/settlement/ssp/library/final-sbsp-interim-assessment-release-01.pdf
FINDING:The SBSP Study Group found that industry has stated that the ~%231
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prizes or signaling its willingness to become the anchor customer for the product.
SPS-Alpha can be up and running in a few years– new tech ensures feasibility and low costs
Mankins 12 – John C. Mankins, President of Artemis Innovation Management Solutions LLC
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/new-paradigm-for-space-based-solar.html
Question: How exactly has the technology evolved since the 1970s? ¶ There have
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mass-produced pieces, standard launch systems and robotic assembly in space.
Recent studies prove that SPS tech is feasible now – terrestrial solar fails
Garretson 12 – Lt Col Peter Garretson is an airpower strategist currently serving on the CSAF’s Strategic Studies Group (HAF/CK). His previous assignment was at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi as an Air Force Fellow examining Indo–US long-term space collaboration under the sponsorship of the Council on Foreign Relations. Prior to that he was the chief of future science and technology exploration for the HQ USAF Directorate of Strategic Planning (AF/A8XC), Spring 2012, "Solar Power in Space?" Strategic Studies Quarterly Spring, http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2012/spring/garretson.pdf-http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2012/spring/garretson.pdf
As of 2010, the fundamental research to achieve technical feasibility for the SPS ~[
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to sunlight, allowing the land beneath to remain available for agricultural uses.
SPS is resilient, cost-effective, and efficient
Reed %26 Willenberg 4 – Head of the Welsom Space Consortium, and Harvey, PhD, Independent Review Team Leader for Space Power Research for NASA, Former Chief Scientist of the ISS (Kevin and Harvey, , "Early commercial demonstration of space solar power using ultra-lightweight arrays," Acta Astronautica, Volume 65, Issues 9-10, accessed on Science Direct)
Future systems will be even more sensitive to specific power. A number of conceptual
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and are resistant to atomic oxygen and radiation in the operational space environment. |
| 03/29/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 3 | Opponent: | Judge: Plan Contention One is Warming Fossil fuel dependence is unsustainable and other renewables fail – SPS-ALPHA solves world energy needs and can be exported globallyDvorsky 11-28 – George Dvorsky, writer for Io9, a daily science and technology publication, November 28th, 2012, "How space-based solar power will solve all our energy needs" io9.com/5963955/how-space+based-solar-power-will-solve-all-our-energy-needs
Humanity’s demand for energy is growing at an astonishing rate. Combine this with an
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200 kilograms), allowing all pieces to be mass produced at low cost. ====SPS-Alpha can be up and running in a few years with only a few billion dollars – new tech ensures feasibility and low costs====
Mankins 12 – John C. Mankins, President of Artemis Innovation Management Solutions LLC
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/new-paradigm-for-space-based-solar.html
Question: How exactly has the technology evolved since the 1970s? ¶ There have
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mass-produced pieces, standard launch systems and robotic assembly in space. Creating a prize system encourages SPS development and makes it economically viableGlobus 11 Al Globus, Chair of the National Space Society’s Space Settlement Advocacy Committee, July 2011, "A SPACE SOLAR POWER INDUSTRY FOR %242 BILLION OR YOUR MONEY BACK"
The proposed prize pays out for each kilowatt-hour (kwh – one thousand
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Earth, not to mention space development, languish with essentially no funding. Scientific consensus concludes warming is real, anthropogenic, and will be catastrophic if left unchecked – SPS solvesFlournoy 12 – Dan Flournoy, PhD and MA from the University of Texas, Former Dean of the University College at Ohio University, Former Associate Dean at State University of New York and Case Institute of Technology, Project Manager for University/Industry Experiments for the NASA ACTS Satellite, Currently Professor of Telecommunications at Scripps College of Communications @ Ohio University, January 2012, "Solar Power Satellites," Springer Briefs in Space Development
In the Online Journal of Space Communication , Dr. Feng Hsu, a NASA
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our Sun" (Hsu 2010 ) (Fig . 2.1 ). Contrary evidence is unqualified and funded by oil hacksProthero 12 ~[Donald R. Prothero, Professor of Geology at Occidental College and Lecturer in Geobiology at the California Institute of Technology, 3-1-2012, "How We Know Global Warming is Real and Human Caused," Skeptic, 17.2, EBSCO~]
How do we know that global warming is real and primarily human caused? There
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change when it threatens their survival. Neither can we as a society. Kammen 7 – Professor of Public Policy @ UC Berkeley (Daniel, "Green Jobs Created by Global Warming Initiative," September 25th, http://www.unep.org/civil_society/GCSF9/pdfs/karmen-senate.pdf)
In addition to supporting domestic job creation, clean energy is an important and fastest
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and the actions of a number of emerging economies to ’go green’. Nuccitelli 12 – Dana, environmental scientist at a private environmental consulting firm in Sacramento and has a Bachelor’s Degree in astrophysics from the University of California at Berkeley, and a Master’s Degree in physics from the University of California at Davis, 2012, "Realistically What Might The Future Climate Look Like?", http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/09/01/784931/realistically-what-might-the-future-climate-look-like/
This is Why Reducing Emissions is Critical¶ We’re not yet committed to surpassing 2
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Earth than today’s, but we still can and must limit the damage. Continued reliance on coal kills 13,000 people every year and spreads hazardous pollutionZelman 11 Joanna, The Huffington Post, "Power Plant Air Pollution Kills 13,000 People Per Year, Coal-Fired Are Most Hazardous: ALA Report", 3/15, www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/14/power-plant-air-pollution-coal-kills_n_833385.html
The American Lung Association (ALA) recently released a new report on the dramatic
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respiratory illnesses connected to pollutant emissions totaled over %24185 billion per year.
Contention Two is Advocacy Debating energy policy joins members of different fields and philosophies to create a consciousness shift towards sustainable environmental policy – how students are trained matters immensely to public policyCrist 4 (Eileen, Professor at Virginia Tech in the Department of Science and Technology, "Against the social construction of nature and wilderness", Environmental Ethics 26;1, p 13-6, http://www.sts.vt.edu/faculty/crist/againstsocialconstruction.pdf)
Yet, constructivist analyses of "nature" favor remaining in the comfort zone of
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the world at an hour that is pressingly calling us to change it. Debate empirically inculcates portable skills that lead to better energy policy – it gives voice to buried arguments and challenges bias and institutional affiliationsMitchell 10 (Gordon R, Associate Professor and Director of Graduate Studies in the Department of Communication at the University of Pittsburgh, where he also directs the William Pitt Debating Union, "SWITCH-SIDE DEBATING MEETS DEMAND-DRIVEN RHETORIC OF SCIENCE", http://www.pitt.edu/~gordonm/JPubs/Mitchell2010.pdf-http://www.pitt.edu/gordonm/JPubs/Mitchell2010.pdf)
An additional dimension of nuance emerging from this avenue of analysis pertains to the precise
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paradigms of policy planning with situated, contingent judgments informed by reflective deliberation. Debate over energy policy is a reflexive forum that facilitates effective decision-making and deliberationMitchell 10 (Gordon R, Associate Professor and Director of Graduate Studies in the Department of Communication at the University of Pittsburgh, where he also directs the William Pitt Debating Union, "SWITCH-SIDE DEBATING MEETS DEMAND-DRIVEN RHETORIC OF SCIENCE", http://www.pitt.edu/~gordonm/JPubs/Mitchell2010.pdf-http://www.pitt.edu/gordonm/JPubs/Mitchell2010.pdf)
Yet the picture grows more complex when one considers what is happening over at the
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where debating exercises are designed to facilitate, not frustrate, deliberative goals. The state is an inevitable and indispensable part of the solution to warmingEckersley 4 Robyn, Reader/Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Melbourne, "The Green State: Rethinking Democracy and Sovereignty", MIT Press, 2004, Google Books, pp. 3-8
While acknowledging the basis for this antipathy toward the nation- state, and the
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at least as a potentially more significant ally in the green cause.17 The discourse of environmental action must be attached to the state garner public support and lead to policy action~[Note: EM = ecological modernization~]
Doran and Barry 6 – worked at all levels in the environment and sustainable development policy arena - at the United Nations, at the Northern Ireland Assembly and Dáil Éireann, and in the Irish NGO sector. PhD—AND— Reader in Politics, Queen’s University School of Politics, International Studies, and Philosophy. PhD Glasgow (Peter and John, Refining Green Political Economy: From Ecological Modernisation to Economic Security and Sufficiency, Analyse %26 Kritik 28/2006, p. 250–275, http://www.analyse-und-kritik.net/2006-2/AK_Barry_Doran_2006.pdf)
Viewed in isolation EM can be painted as a reformist and limited strategy for achieving
AND
’greenprint’ of an abstract and utopian vision of the ’sustainable society’. CAG 10—Climate Change Communication Advisory Group. Dr Adam Corner School of Psychology, Cardiff University - Dr Tom Crompton Change Strategist, WWF-UK - Scott Davidson Programme Manager, Global Action Plan - Richard Hawkins Senior Researcher, Public Interest Research Centre - Professor Tim Kasser, Psychology department, Knox College, Galesburg, Illinois, USA. - Dr Renee Lertzman, Center for Sustainable Processes %26 Practices, Portland State University, US. - Peter Lipman, Policy Director, Sustrans. - Dr Irene Lorenzoni, Centre for Environmental Risk, University of East Anglia. - George Marshall, Founding Director, Climate Outreach , Information Network - Dr Ciaran Mundy, Director, Transition Bristol - Dr Saffron O’Neil, Department of Resource Management and Geography, University of Melbourne, Australia. - Professor Nick Pidgeon, Director, Understanding Risk Research Group, School of Psychology, Cardiff University. - Dr Anna Rabinovich, School of Psychology, University of Exeter - Rosemary Randall, Founder and director of Cambridge Carbon Footprint - Dr Lorraine Whitmarsh, School of Psychology, Cardiff University %26 Visiting Fellow at the, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. (Communicating climate change to mass public audience, http://pirc.info/downloads/communicating_climate_mass_audiences.pdf)
This short advisory paper collates a set of recommendations about how best to shape mass
AND
they would like structural barriers to behavioural/societal change to be removed. Smith 10 Brendan, co-founder of Labor Network for Sustainability, 11-23, "Fighting Doom: The New Politics of Climate Change," Common Dreams, http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/11/23-1
I admit I have arrived late to the party. Only recently have I begun
AND
said to me, "God help us, I hope you’re right." Bryant 12—professor of philosophy at Collin College (Levi, We’ll Never Do Better Than a Politician: Climate Change and Purity, 5/11/12, http://larvalsubjects.wordpress.com/2012/05/11/well-never-do-better-than-a-politician-climate-change-and-purity/)
However, pointing this out and deriding market based solutions doesn’t get us very far
AND
there’s no way around this, and we do need to act now. Simulation and institutional deliberation motivate effective responses to climate risksMarx et al. 7 (Sabine M, Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) @ Columbia University, Elke U. Weber, Graduate School of Business and Department of Psychology @ Columbia University, Benjamin S. Orlovea, Department of Environmental Science and Policy @ University of California Davis, Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, David H. Krantz, Department of Psychology @ Columbia University, Carla Roncolia, South East Climate Consortium (SECC), Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering @ University of Georgia and Jennifer Phillips, Bard Centre for Environmental Policy @ Bard College, "Communication and mental processes: Experiential and analytic processing of uncertain climate information", 2007, http://climate.columbia.edu/sitefiles/file/Marx_GEC_2007.pdf)
Based on the observation that experiential and analytic processing systems compete and that personal experience
AND
engage both systems in the process of individual and group decision-making. Hutcheon 93—former prof of sociology of education at U Regina and U British Columbia. Former research advisor to the Health Promotion Branch of the Canadian Department of Health and Welfare and as a director of the Vanier Institute of the Family. Phd in sociology, began at Yale and finished at U Queensland. (Pat, A Critique of "Biology as Ideology: The Doctrine of DNA", http://www.humanists.net/pdhutcheon/humanist%20articles/lewontn.htm)
The introductory lecture in this series articulated the increasingly popular "postmodernist" claim that
AND
mean failure, in that the theory itself has altered in the process. |
| 03/29/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 3 | Opponent: Liberty AB | Judge:
Kritik Perm Text
Perm do both
Perm do the plan and the alternative in every other instance
Perm do the plan, then abolish the state after warming has been solved
Perm Solvency
Inclusion of pragmatic, reformist coalitions is the only way to make radical critiques of white supremacy politically effective---the alt alone fails and generates backlash
Winant 97 – Howard Winant, Professor of Sociology and Director of the Center for New racial Studies at UC Santa Barbara, September-October 1997, “Behind Blue Eyes: Contemporary White Racial Politics,” online: http://www.soc.ucsb.edu/faculty/winant/whitness.html
Although the differences and indeed the hostility -- between the neoliberal and abolitionist projects,
AND
don't know how American you are" (Thompson 1995, 429).v
Broad-based coalitions are key---any alternative gets coopted by the right
Clark 95—Professor of Law, Catholic University Law School. (Leroy, A Critique of Professor Derrick A. Bell's Thesis of the Permanence of Racism and His Strategy of Confrontation, 73 Denv. U.L. Rev. 23) Lessons from the Movement: Broad Based Coalitions The civil rights movement, however,
AND
progress is keyed to progress in society as a whole toward economic security. Impact Defense
White supremacy isn’t a monolithic root cause---proximate causes determined through empirics are more likely---and their arg shuts off productive debate over solutions
Shelby 7 – Tommie Shelby, Professor of African and African American Studies and of Philosophy at Harvard, 2007, We Who Are Dark: The Philosophical Foundations of Black Solidarity
Others might challenge the distinction between ideological and structural causes of black disadvantage, on
AND
developments (such as immigration policy or reduced federal funding for higher education).
Whiteness isn’t a monolithic root cause---they shut off productive debate over solutions – means the alt fails
Shelby 7 – Tommie Shelby, Professor of African and African American Studies and of Philosophy at Harvard, 2007, We Who Are Dark: The Philosophical Foundations of Black Solidarity
Others might challenge the distinction between ideological and structural causes of black disadvantage, on
AND
developments (such as immigration policy or reduced federal funding for higher education). Atl Fails/Backlash
Political systems historically constituted by white supremacy are not inevitably oppressive and don’t require abolishing America---setting the goal of the alternative as ending America and white supremacy entirely is politically ineffective---reforming whiteness to resolve the impacts of oppression is better
Sullivan 8 – Shannon Sullivan, Head of Philosophy and Professor of Philosophy, Women's Studies, and African and African American Studies at Pennsylvania State University, Spring 2008, “Whiteness as Wise Provincialism: Royce and the Rehabilitation of a Racial Category,” Transactions of the Charles S. Peirce Society: A Quarterly Journal in American Philosophy, Vol. 44, No. 2
It is commonly acknowledged today, at least in academic circles, that racial essences
AND
white people today might begin living whiteness as an anti-racist category. Militantly oppositional black resistance generates backlash from the right and the left---it materially reverses efforts towards racial justice
Shelby 7 – Tommie Shelby, Professor of African and African American Studies and of Philosophy at Harvard, 2007, We Who Are Dark: The Philosophical Foundations of Black Solidarity
Even if it were possible to effectively mobilize a multicorporatist Black Power program without running
AND
elect effective political representation without the support of like-minded nonblack citizens. AT: Social Death/Afropessimism
No social death – history proves
Brown 9 Vincent, Prof. of History and African and African-American Studies @ Harvard Univ., December, "Social Death and Political Life in the Study of Slavery," American Historical Review, p. 1231-1249
THE PREMISE OF ORLANDO PATTERSON’S MAJOR WORK, that enslaved Africans were natally alienated and
AND
of becoming ‘African American’ in culture, orientation, and identity.”40 Afro-pessimism is inaccurate and is used to justify white supremacism
Patterson 98—Jamaican-born American historical and cultural sociologist known for his work regarding issues of race in the United States, as well as the sociology of development (Orlando, The Ordeal Of Integration: Progress And Resentment In America's "Racial" Crisis) In the attempt to understand and come to terms with the problems of Afro-
AND
we still have some way to go before approaching anything like a resolution. They ontologize race in the same way that racists do
Gilroy 00—chaired prof of Social Theory at the London School of Economics (Paul, Against Race: Imagining Political Culture beyond the Color Line, 218-20) In Britain, the United States, South Africa, Bosnia, and elsewhere,
AND
suffering can be used to bring a counteranthropological, strategic universalism into view. 1AR Extinction First Extinction outweighs
Bostrum 3/6 (Nick, Professor of Philosophy at Oxford, directs Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute and winner of the Gannon Award, Interview with Ross Andersen, correspondent at The Atlantic, 2012, “We're Underestimating the Risk of Human Extinction”, http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/03/were-underestimating-the-risk-of-human-extinction/253821/)
Bostrom, who directs Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute, has argued over the course
AND
eliminating poverty or curing malaria, which would be tremendous under ordinary standards.
AT: Must Always Reject State Avoiding engaging the topic because the state is irredeemably racist over-essentializes modern black-life
McWhorter 9—Associate Professor in the English and Comparative Literature, Columbia (John, What African-American Studies Could Be, www.mindingthecampus.com/originals/2009/09/by_john_mcwhorter_while_this.html) The answer common in such departments is that the principal mission is to teach students
AND
university department worth the status, contesting from all sides must be heard.
AT: Perm Cooption All their cooption args apply to the alt and prove the necessity of the perm---if white supremacy coopts everything then even highly radical challenges to it will fail to overthrow the system---but specific pragmatic reforms can alleviate suffering and injustice
Winant 97 – Howard Winant, Professor of Sociology and Director of the Center for New racial Studies at UC Santa Barbara, September-October 1997, “Behind Blue Eyes: Contemporary White Racial Politics,” online: http://www.soc.ucsb.edu/faculty/winant/whitness.html
Once, US society was a nearly monolithic racial hierarchy, in which everyone knew
AND
forces (Moskos 1988, Butler 1980) -- really remarkable change occurred. 1AR Rev Offense revolutionary ethics inevitably collapse into violence by converting individuals into identity categories
Horowitz 89—David, author and civil rights activist, founder of the New Left in the 1960s and editor of its largest magazine, Rampart, and Peter Colier, journalist, "Destructive Generation", pp
Not an intention, but a totalitarian faith is what creates the common bond between
AND
fate of the accused. This is the essence of the Red Terror." |
| 03/29/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 3 | Opponent: Liberty AB | Judge:
2AC We meet---we procure energy produced IN the US---we only incentivize what is topical
We meet---rectennas would be in the US
Snead 8 – James Michael Snead, senior member of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, past chair of the Space Logistics Technical Committee, published in Aerospace America, the Air Force Air and Space Power Journal, the International Society of Logistics’ Logistics Spectrum magazine, the Journal of AstroPolitics, and the online Space Review, graduate of the Air Force Institute of Technology with Master's Degrees in Aerospace Engineering, November 19th, 2008, “The End of Easy Energy and What to Do About It,” National Space Society, http://mikesnead.net/resources/spacefaring/white_paper_the_end_of_easy_energy_and_what_to_do_about_it.pdf
Possible rectenna locations in the United States 2.45/5.8 GHz
AND
greater than the approximately 250 SSP platforms that would likely be used.211
Counter-interpretation---energy production is creation of electricity for final consumption
DOCC 9 the Department of Climate Change on behalf of the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) Expert Group on Streamlining Greenhouse and Energy Reporting. "National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting Streamlining Protocol" www.climatechange.gov.au//media/publications/greenhouse-report/nger-streamlining-protocol.pdf
7.1 Energy production¶ Under the NGER Act corporations are required to report
AND
the facility or for use other than in the operation of the facility.
Appendix C provides a list of reportable fuels and energy commodities under Schedule 1 of the NGER Regulations.
*National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting System (NGER) is a 2007 Australian GHG reporting scheme
This takes place at rectennas in the US
URSI 5 – International Union of Radio Science (URSI), November 2005, "Supporting Document for the URSI White Paper on Solar Power Satellite Systems," www.ss.ncu.edu.tw/ursi/record/WP_SPS_supdoc_051129.pdf
The rectenna is extremely efficient in the energy conversion. The 82% of the
AND
compared to only 600 Wh/day/m2 for terrestrial photovoltaics.5
SPS collects solar, rectennas convert it to electricity
Powersat 12 – Powersat Corporation, 2012, "Energy market drivers behind Space Solar Power (SSP)" www.powersat.com
Space-based solar power is a method of collecting solar energy so that it can be distributed for use all over the earth. With this amazing technology, space-based solar power is the future of power generation.
Counter-interp---“in the US” includes possessions
Department of Defense 5 (Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms. US Department of Defense 2005., http://www.thefreedictionary.com/United+States)
UNITED STATES: Includes the land area, internal waters, territorial sea, and airspace of the United States, including the following: a. US territories, possessions, and commonwealths; and b. Other areas over which the US Government has complete jurisdiction and control or has exclusive authority or defense responsibility.
We meet---SPS is in GSO slots that the USFG owns
Smith 8 – PhD Student @ University of Reading M.V., Lt. Col, PhD student in the strategic studies program under Professor Colin Gray at the University of Reading in the UK, winner of the National Space Society’s 2008 Space Pioneer Award, Chief of Future Concepts (Dream Works) the Pentagon, http://spacesolarpower.wordpress.com/2008/08/31/parking-slots-and-frequencies/
How does a company obtain a geostationary parking slot for a SBSP satellite?¶ Parking
AND
solar power satellites can thereafter occupy the countries’ allocated orbital slot(s).
Counter-interpretation---of means from a source
Dictionary.com 13 “of” accessed 3-27, http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/of
preposition¶ 1.¶ (used to indicate distance or direction from, separation, deprivation, etc.): within a mile of the church; south of Omaha; to be robbed of one's money.¶ 2.¶ (used to indicate derivation, origin, or source): a man of good family; the plays of Shakespeare; a piece of cake.
Prefer it - Grammar---key to precision and predictability---only we give the whole resolution meaning
2. Aff and Neg ground---“extraction” allows affs that mine a little more uranium without creating electricity---that kills link ground
3. We internal link turn limits---extraction is limitless
Natural Gas.org No Date – “Processing Natural Gas" www.naturalgas.org/naturalgas/processing_ng.asp
Natural gas, as it is used by consumers, is much different from the
AND
materials for oil refineries or petrochemical plants, and as sources of energy.
Reasonability---competing interpretations are a race to the bottom to arbitrary exclude the aff
|
| 03/29/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 3 | Opponent: Liberty AB | Judge:
2AC Warming
Coal Impact
Coal fired power plants perpetuate eco-racism all across our communities in Chicago---speaking out is key
Arriaga ‘11 – Greenpeace Volunteer and Local Chicagoan
Faces of Chicago's coal fight, August 5, 2011, This is a guest blog by Luis Arriaga, a Greenpeace volunteer leader in Chicago
http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/en/news-and-blogs/campaign-blog/faces-of-chicagos-coal-fight/blog/36253/
Growing up next to a state park was a blessing. I got to experience
AND
at full capacity would be to continue a form of eco-racism.
Warming Impact
Warming perpetuates racist inequalities
Hoerner 8—Former director of Research at the Center for a Sustainable Economy, Director of Tax Policy at the Center for Global Change at the University of Maryland College Park, and editor of Natural Resources Tax Review. He has done research on environmental economics and policy on behalf of the governments of Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the United States. Andrew received his B.A. in Economics from Cornell University and a J.D. from Case Western Reserve School of Law—AND—Nia Robins—former inaugural Climate Justice Corps Fellow in 2003, director of Environmental Justice and Climate Change Initiative (J. Andrew, “A Climate of Change African Americans, Global Warming, and a Just Climate Policy for the U.S.” July 2008, http://www.ejcc.org/climateofchange.pdf)
Everywhere we turn, the issues and impacts of climate change confront us. One
AND
points and raising the average African American income by 3 to 4 percent.
AT: Apocalyptic
Apocalyptic rhetoric motivates action on climate change – it causes emancipation, not climate fatigue
Beck 10 (Ulrich, Professor of Sociology at University of Munich, the British Journal of Sociology Visiting Centennial Professor at the London School of Economics and Political Sciences, and, since 2009, Senior Loeb Fellow at the Harvard Design School, “Climate for Change, or How to Create a Green Modernity?”, Theory Culture Society 2010 27: 254)
Sixth thesis: The political explosiveness of global risks is largely a function of their
AND
powerful as this hunger for modernization or it is condemned to repeated failure. No Solvency
No CO2 turn
Asakura, Professor @ Azabu University, 2k (Asakura, Keiichiro, Collins, Patrick, Nomura, Koji, Hayami, Hitoshi, and Yoshioka, Kanji, Department of Environmental Policy @ Azabu University, " CO2 Emission from Solar Power Satellite through its Life Cycle: Comparison of Power Generation Systems using Japanese Input-Output Tables," July, http://policy.rutgers.edu/cupr/iioa/AsakuraCollinsNomuraHayamiandYoshioka_LifeCycleCO2.pdf, EMM)
In this paper we have analyzed the CO2 emission likely to be produced by a
AND
to initiative the escape from a 'closed-Earth' industrial-economic system.
Yes solvency---doesn’t assume SPS-ALPHA---new modularized module
Garretson 12 – Lt Col Peter Garretson is an airpower strategist currently serving on the CSAF’s Strategic Studies Group (HAF/CK). His previous assignment was at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi as an Air Force Fellow examining Indo–US long-term space collaboration under the sponsorship of the Council on Foreign Relations. Prior to that he was the chief of future science and technology exploration for the HQ USAF Directorate of Strategic Planning (AF/A8XC), Spring 2012, "Solar Power in Space?" Strategic Studies Quarterly Spring, http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2012/spring/garretson.pdf
As of 2010, the fundamental research to achieve technical feasibility for the SPS
AND
to sunlight, allowing the land beneath to remain available for agricultural uses.
AT: Negative Feedbacks
No negative feedbacks
They’re net positive – five more reasons
Ghotge and Gambhir 7 Sanjeev, Senior Fellow at the World Institute of Sustainable Energy, and Ashwin, October 5, “Global Climate Change: Threat To Nature And Human Society”, http://www.countercurrents.org/gambhir051007.htm
As if the story uncovered thus far by the scientists were not sufficiently dismal,
AND
º C, so that a 2º C temperature is very significant. 1AR Warming
Gas → Warming Rising natural gas prices are making coal competitive in electricity generation
Erich Schwartzel 13, reporter, according to Michigan is an expert on fracking apparently because he visited some class of Pappas’s, 1/9/13, “U.S. report predicts rising natural gas prices in 2013-14,” http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/business/news/us-report-predicts-rising-natural-gas-prices-in-2013-14-669602/#ixzz2K06tC9CS
Marcellus Shale drillers who have had to cut costs and disassemble rigs because of recent
AND
couple of years and eventually lead to lower prices at the gasoline station. Yes T/O All
SPS facilitates transition away from fossil fuels
Flournoy 12 – Don Flournoy, PhD and MA from the University of Texas, Former Dean of the University College at Ohio University, Former Associate Dean at State University of New York and Case Institute of Technology, Project Manager for University/Industry Experiments for the NASA ACTS Satellite, Currently Professor of Telecommunications at Scripps College of Communications at Ohio University, "Solar Power Satellites," January, Springer Briefs in Space Development, Book
One of the obvious opportunities for solar power satellites is to become an on-
AND
Sunsat business to guarantee a sustainable night-and-day fuel source. Apocalypse Good Apocalyptic warming rhetoric changes disbelief and mobilizes effective public responses
Romm 12 (Joe, Fellow at American Progress and is the editor of Climate Progress, which New York Times columnist Tom Friedman called "the indispensable blog" and Time magazine named one of the 25 “Best Blogs of 2010.″ In 2009, Rolling Stone put Romm #88 on its list of 100 “people who are reinventing America.” Time named him a “Hero of the Environment″ and “The Web’s most influential climate-change blogger.” Romm was acting assistant secretary of energy for energy efficiency and renewable energy in 1997, where he oversaw $1 billion in RandD, demonstration, and deployment of low-carbon technology. He is a Senior Fellow at American Progress and holds a Ph.D. in physics from MIT, 2/26, “Apocalypse Not: The Oscars, The Media And The Myth of ‘Constant Repetition of Doomsday Messages’ on Climate”, http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/02/26/432546/apocalypse-not-oscars-media-myth-of-repetition-of-doomsday-messages-on-climate/#more-432546)
The two greatest myths about global warming communications are 1) constant repetition of doomsday
AND
by most of the rest of the media, intelligentsia and popular culture. Solvency SPS is resilient, cost-effective, and efficient
Reed and Willenberg 4 – Head of the Welsom Space Consortium, and Harvey, PhD, Independent Review Team Leader for Space Power Research for NASA, Former Chief Scientist of the ISS (Kevin and Harvey, , "Early commercial demonstration of space solar power using ultra-lightweight arrays,” Acta Astronautica, Volume 65, Issues 9-10, accessed on Science Direct)
Future systems will be even more sensitive to specific power. A number of conceptual
AND
and are resistant to atomic oxygen and radiation in the operational space environment. |
| 03/29/2013 | Tournament: NDT | Round: 3 | Opponent: Liberty AB | Judge:
2AC AT: Prior Questions
Action with policy relevance is key when survival is at stake---ontology and epistemology are irrelevant
Norton 5 (Bryan G, professor of philosophy at the Georgia Institute of Technology, “Sustainability: A Philosophy of Adaptive Ecosystem Management”, University of Chicago Press, November 1, 2005, pp. 151-154)
Pragmatists pay attention to the particularities of unique situations. In action-forcing situations
AND
questions and to improve their chances of achieving meaningful improvements in their policies.
AT: Identity Politics
Coalitions are key---Smith 10 Global warming movements are coming now thanks to a decline in identity politics --- their strategy crushes those movements --- causes extinction
George Monbiot, English Writer and Environmental and Political Activist, 9-4-2008, “Identity Politics in Climate Change Hell,” http://www.celsias.com/article/identity-politics-climate-change-hell/
If you want a glimpse of how the movement against climate change could crumble faster
AND
this urgent task into the identity politics that have wrecked so many movements.
AT: Communication Theory The exclusions of liberalism are a reason to reform it via refining democratic decision-making
Amanda Anderson 6, Andrew W. Mellon Professor of Humanities and English at Brown University, Spring 2006, “Reply to My Critic(s),” Criticism, Vol. 48, No. 2, p. 281-290 In closing, I'd like to speak briefly to the question of proceduralism's relevance to
AND
and public debate has a vital role to play in such a task. AT: Sustainability
Doesn’t assume the aff
Innovation and adaptation make growth sustainable---green tech investment solves
Harte and Harte 12 John, Professor of Ecosystem Sciences at the University of California, Berkeley and Mary Ellen, biologist and columnist who writes on climate change and population, “Alarmism Is Justified”, Foreign Affairs, 00157120, Sep/Oct 2012, Vol. 91, Issue 5
The Limits to Growth predicted catastrophe: humanity would deplete natural resources and pollute itself
AND
of poor people who require, above all, more and faster growth. 1AR Consumption I/E Consumption mindset is inevitable---using responsible investment and working through existing institutions create sustainable development---the alt’s totalizing rejection fails
Doran and Barry 6 – worked at all levels in the environment and sustainable development policy arena - at the United Nations, at the Northern Ireland Assembly and Dáil Éireann, and in the Irish NGO sector. PhD--AND-- Reader in Politics, Queen's University School of Politics, International Studies, and Philosophy. PhD Glasgow (Peter and John, Refining Green Political Economy: From Ecological Modernisation to Economic Security and Sufficiency, Analyse and Kritik 28/2006, p. 250–275, http://www.analyse-und-kritik.net/2006-2/AK_Barry_Doran_2006.pdf)
The aim of this article is to offer a draft of a realistic, but
AND
the social and economic bottom lines that green political economy needs to focus. |
| 03/30/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
Kritik
ALT FAILS
POLITICS IS THE VERY ACT OF TAKING CARE FOR THE WORLD AND OTHERS AGAINST THE ENDLESS DEPREDATIONS OF MODERNITY – THE ALTERNATIVE IS MORE GUILT LADEN AND TURNS US AGAINST THE WORLD BY TYING US TO THE CULT OF THE SELF
Lawrence J. Biskowski, Professor of political theory and political economy at the University of Georgia, Politics versus Aesthetics: Arendt's Critiques of Nietzsche and Heidegger, The Review of Politics, Vol. 57, No. 1 (Winter, 1995), pp. 59-89
One lesson Arendt gleaned from the Nazi experience and its aftermath was how easily the
AND
aestheticized politics radically adverse to morality and moral interpretation seems much less so.
Baudrillard’s approach to the environment fails---discursive focus results in inward focus that furthers destruction
Glover 6 (Leigh, policy fellow and assistant professor in the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy at the University of Delaware, “Postmodern Climate Change”, Psychology Press, August 31, Google Books, p. 58)
A major liability of postmodernity's contribution to environmentalism is its inability to construct political programs
AND
and the way the economy is organized to make society less environmentally destructive." ) Your ‘Don’t Worry, Be Happy’ approach to the world is a delusional self-indulgent act of arrogance and disdain for humanity – it’s not radical; this contempt for anybody but yourself sanctions the sacrifice of those not laughing --- the perm’s crucial to a genuine celebration of life
MARCEL, CONTRIBUTOR TO COMMONDREAMS.ORG, 6
JOYCE, MARCH 8, “HAPPY HAPPY HAPPY ALL THE TIME”, http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0308-35.htm Polar bears are drowning but what the hell. Don't worry, be happy.
AND
, when Bush is gone, there will be dancing in the streets.
Hold to alt text
AT: Consumption
Consumption mindset is inevitable---using responsible investment and working through existing institutions create sustainable development---the alt’s totalizing rejection fails
Doran and Barry 6 – worked at all levels in the environment and sustainable development policy arena - at the United Nations, at the Northern Ireland Assembly and Dáil Éireann, and in the Irish NGO sector. PhD--AND-- Reader in Politics, Queen's University School of Politics, International Studies, and Philosophy. PhD Glasgow (Peter and John, Refining Green Political Economy: From Ecological Modernisation to Economic Security and Sufficiency, Analyse and Kritik 28/2006, p. 250–275, http://www.analyse-und-kritik.net/2006-2/AK_Barry_Doran_2006.pdf)
The aim of this article is to offer a draft of a realistic, but
AND
the social and economic bottom lines that green political economy needs to focus. Eliminating human intervention in the environment is impossible and causes extinction in the short term---market incentives are key
Barnhizer 6 -- Professor of Law, Cleveland State University. (David, Waking from Sustainability's "Impossible Dream": The Decisionmaking Realities of Business and Government, 18 Geo. Int'l Envtl. L. Rev. 595, Lexis) Medieval alchemists sought unsuccessfully to discover the process that would enable them to turn base
AND
Yet even this approach can only be achieved incrementally with limited positive effects.
No root cause
Larrivee 10— PF ECONOMICS AT MOUNT ST MARY’S UNIVERSITY – MASTERS FROM THE HARVARD KENNEDY SCHOOL AND PHD IN ECONOMICS FROM WISCONSIN, 10 JOHN, A FRAMEWORK FOR THE MORAL ANALYSIS OF MARKETS, 10/1, http://www.teacheconomicfreedom.org/files/larrivee-paper-1.pdf
The Second Focal Point: Moral, Social, and Cultural Issues of Capitalism
AND
problems in the first place, at least not to the degree theorized.
We Solve Ressentement
Debate’s switch-side component builds a symbiotic relationship between mutual empowerment and disempowerment, which prevents violence and allows for the exercise of freedom
Herman W. Siemens, Department of Philosophy, Nijmegen University, The Netherlands, Nietzsche’s Agon With Ressentiment, Continental Philosophy Review, Volume 34, Number 1 / March, 2001, 69–93
My claim is that Nietzsche’s textual confrontations, both early and late, exhibit a
AND
to a number of points that bear directly on the question of therapy. AT: VTL Doesn’t turn warming---we don’t consume because of ourselves that’s Bryant, Doran, and Berr, and Barnhizer.
Value to life is inevitable and subjective
Schwartz 2 (Lisa, professional metaphysician, Medical Ethics: A case based approach, “The Value of Life: Who Decides and How?”, p. 112)
The second assertion made by supporters of the quality of life as a criterion for
AND
imperative that we must treat persons as rational and as ends in themselves. AT: Mean to Nature Protecting the environment is key to establishing a good relationship to it
Wapner 3 – Professor of Global Environmental Politics in School of Int'l Service, American U (Paul, Leftist Criticism of 'Nature', http://dissentmagazine.org/article/?article=539)
THE THIRD response to eco-criticism would require critics to acknowledge the ways in
AND
of "nature" without taking a stand for the diversity of nature." AT: Nuke War Turns Nuclear war won't cause extinction
Martin 82 (Brian, Professor of Social Sciences in the School of Social Sciences, Media and Communication at the University of Wollongong, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 19, No. 4, pp. 287-300 http://www.uow.edu.au/arts/sts/bmartin/pubs/82jpr.html) To summarise the above points, a major global nuclear war in which population centres
AND
exploded, areas upwind of nuclear attacks would remain free of heavy radioactive contamination MARKED , such as Portugal, Ireland and British Columbia. Many people, perhaps especially
AND
holding or stating a belief in nuclear extinction are quite sincere.15 |
| 03/30/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
AT: Externalize
Communicating environmental problem-solving targeted at policy solutions is key to solve extinction---the K is philosophical nonsense that gets trapped in the academy---only the perm catalyzes effective international action
Wapner 8 (Paul Kevin, Associate Professor and Director of the Global Environmental Politics
AND
incrementalism—specifying the relationship between superstructural policy reforms and structural political transformation.¶ Until
AND
much more, in envisioning and explicating routes toward a genuinely greener world. We Affirm Life Suffering is only inevitable in a world where affirmative action is not taken - the plan is the best way to affirm life
May 5 (Todd May, prof @ Clemson. “To change the world, to celebrate life,” Philosophy and Social Criticism 2005 Vol 31 nos 5–6 pp. 517–531) To change the world and to celebrate life. This, as the theologian Harvey
AND
who would be more than willing to take your world up for you. |
| 03/30/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
2AC Warming
Renewables Can Solves
Not about solar
Only solar solves
Fthenakis 8 Vasilis Fthenakis, Ph.D., Senior Research Scientist at the Center for Life Cycle Analysis; James E. Mason, Ph.D., Director of the Renewable Energy Research Institute; Ken Zweibel, founder of the Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy at GWU, former PV RandD program manager at NREL; “The technical, geographical, and economic feasibility for solar energy to supply the energy needs of the US,” Energy Policy, http://www.solarplan.org/Research/F-M-Z_Solar%20Grand%20Plan_Energy%20Policy_2009.pdf
Abstract¶ So far, solar energy has been viewed as only a minor contributor
AND
al., 2008). The current article discusses the feasibility of this vision.
Energy Shortage Not Inevitable
From 1998---lolsy
New forecasting solves
Lundin 2/26 (Barbara L. Vergetis, the Editor of FierceMarkets' Energy Group, “Goodbye to solar intermittency concerns,” http://www.fierceenergy.com/story/goodbye-solar-intermittency-concerns/2013-02-26)
The intermittent nature of solar energy may be less of a concern to utilities with
AND
techniques will be widely disseminated for use by the energy industry and meteorologists.
AT: Consumerism
The plan is natural capitalism - it's sustainable
Hawken et al 10 (Paul, environmentalist, entrepreneur, and author, Amory B. Lovins, Co-founder, Chairman, and Chief Scientist of Rocky Mountain Institute, and L. Hunter Lovins, founder of Natural Capitalism, Inc. and Natural Capitalism Solutions and co-founder of the Rocky Mountain Institute and a professor at the Presidio School of Management's MBA in Sustainable Management program, “Natural Capitalism: The Next Industrial Revolution”, Google Books, p. 259-262)
CHURCHILL ONCE REMARKED THAT DEMOCRACY IS THE WORST SYSTEM OF government — except for all
AND
trading price into profits realized from the sale and use of efficient technologies.
Innovation and adaptation make growth sustainable---green tech investment solves
Harte and Harte 12 John, Professor of Ecosystem Sciences at the University of California, Berkeley and Mary Ellen, biologist and columnist who writes on climate change and population, “Alarmism Is Justified”, Foreign Affairs, 00157120, Sep/Oct 2012, Vol. 91, Issue 5
The Limits to Growth predicted catastrophe: humanity would deplete natural resources and pollute itself
AND
of poor people who require, above all, more and faster growth.
No Solvency---Deforestation New data proves deforestation doesn't cause warming
New Scientist 10 citing ecologists at Winrock International, a US-based consulting agency. "Deforestation 'not so important for climate change'," Dec 8, http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19817-deforestation-not-so-important-for-climate-change.html
Climate negotiations were dealt a bombshell at the weekend when ecologists reported that carbon emissions
AND
land had been abandoned by farmers, which could reduce the figure further. Warming Predictions Good
Risk assessment is good in the context of climate – allows effective policy making
Schneider and Lane 6 (Stephen, Prof. Bio. Sci., Senior Fellow of Institute for Int’l. Studies, Co-Director of Center for Environmental Science and Policy @ Stanford, and Janica, Research Assistant to Dr. Schneider, “An Overview of ‘Dangerous’ Climate Change”, http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/adcc/BookCh2Jan2006.pdf)
Ultimately, scientists cannot make expert value judgments about what climate change risks to face
AND
, along with a brief explanation of how that confidence was arrived at.
Fear Good/Motivates
Apocalyptic warming rhetoric changes disbelief and mobilizes effective public responses
Romm 12 (Joe, Fellow at American Progress and is the editor of Climate Progress, which New York Times columnist Tom Friedman called "the indispensable blog" and Time magazine named one of the 25 “Best Blogs of 2010.″ In 2009, Rolling Stone put Romm #88 on its list of 100 “people who are reinventing America.” Time named him a “Hero of the Environment″ and “The Web’s most influential climate-change blogger.” Romm was acting assistant secretary of energy for energy efficiency and renewable energy in 1997, where he oversaw $1 billion in RandD, demonstration, and deployment of low-carbon technology. He is a Senior Fellow at American Progress and holds a Ph.D. in physics from MIT, 2/26, “Apocalypse Not: The Oscars, The Media And The Myth of ‘Constant Repetition of Doomsday Messages’ on Climate”, http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/02/26/432546/apocalypse-not-oscars-media-myth-of-repetition-of-doomsday-messages-on-climate/#more-432546)
The two greatest myths about global warming communications are 1) constant repetition of doomsday
AND
by most of the rest of the media, intelligentsia and popular culture.¶
Apocalyptic rhetoric motivates action on climate change – it causes emancipation, not climate fatigue
Beck 10 (Ulrich, Professor of Sociology at University of Munich, the British Journal of Sociology Visiting Centennial Professor at the London School of Economics and Political Sciences, and, since 2009, Senior Loeb Fellow at the Harvard Design School, “Climate for Change, or How to Create a Green Modernity?”, Theory Culture Society 2010 27: 254)
Sixth thesis: The political explosiveness of global risks is largely a function of their
AND
powerful as this hunger for modernization or it is condemned to repeated failure. Fear mobilizes action
Raino Malnes 8, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Norway, Climate science and the way we ought to think about danger, Environmental Politics, Volume 17, Issue 4 August 2008 , pages 660 - 672
The upshot is that efforts to boost the credibility of the greenhouse theory are liable to backfire. Scientific dissenters are likely to speak up loudly, and those with political or economic interest in dismissing the danger of climate change will benefit from this turn of the debate. They need not take on the arduous task of arguing that adverse effects of human activity are too unlikely to be worth worrying about. All they have to do is disprove that adversity is a foregone conclusion. A memo from a Republican politician in the United States illustrates the last point. Articulated as a defence of President Bush's resistance to greenhouse gas reductions, it says: 'Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly. Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate' (quoted from Lanchester 2007, p. 5)
It is in many ways unfortunate that scientists who try to pass the greenhouse theory for certified truth open the door to this kind of argumentation. They play into the hands of those who are out to disparage the theory by allowing them to trade on its margin of error. But lack of certainty is, as we have seen, no embarrassment to the theory and no reason not to act on its dire predictions.
Generally speaking, the line between pseudo-danger and real danger is crossed long
AND
reality playing for time' (quoted from Lanchester 2007, p. 3).
Enviro Prag Good – Warming
Pragmatic warming policy is effective and key to prevent extinction---the K results in disengagement and endless theoretical uncertainty that debilitates action---only the perm can bridge the gap
Simpson 10 (Francis, College of Engineering, Vanderbilt University, “Environmental Pragmatism and its Application to Climate Change The Moral Obligations of Developed and Developing Nations to Avert Climate Change as viewed through Technological Pragmatism”, Spring 2010 | Volume 6 | Number 1)
Pragmatism and Footprinting
Environmental pragmatism is a relatively new field of environmental ethics that seeks to move beyond
AND
have a moral obligation to protect the future of humanity and the biosphere. |
| 03/31/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
1AC
Plan
The United States Federal Government should substantially reduce restrictions on production of crude oil by entities that wish to engage in joint crude oil production with Cuban energy-producing entities in the area of the Gulf of Mexico’s Eastern Gap included in the United States’ Outer Continental Shelf Planning Areas. 1AC Relations
Chavez’s death means now is key to solve Cuban relations---that’s key to broader Latin America relations
Tisdall 3-5 – Simon Tisdall, writer for the Guardian, March 5th, 2013, "Death of Hugo Chávez brings chance of fresh start for US and Latin America" www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/05/hugo-chavez-dead-us-latin-america/print
Hugo Chávez's departure furnishes Barack Obama with an opportunity to repair US ties with Venezuela
AND
needs rapprochement with Washington to advance his own reform agenda," Sweig said.
The plan is key to US-Cuban energy cooperation---solves overall relations, regional stability, and drug trafficking
Benjamin 10 – Jonathan Benjamin-Alvadaro, Report for the Cuban Research Institute, Florida International University, PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association, 2010, Brookings Institution book, “Cuba’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation”
Conclusion and Recommendations
Oil exploration is an inherently risky enterprise; there are always trade-offs between
AND
tangible benefits for the people of Cuba, it neighbors, and beyond.
Plan shores up US-Cuban relations---that solves US influence in Latin America and prevents Chinese expansion
Benjamin-Alvadaro 6 (Jonathan, Report for the Cuban Research Institute, Florida International University, PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association, “The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special,” http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/oil-cuba-alvarado.pdf)
Given that there are no formal diplomatic of economic relations between the governments of the
AND
circumstances but have well-served the commercial interests of all parties involved.
China’s expanding into Latin America---US influence is key to crowd them out
Dowd 12 (Alan, Senior Fellow with the American Security Council Foundation, “Crisis in the America's,” http://www.ascfusa.org/content_pages/view/crisisinamericas)
Focused on military operations in the Middle East, nuclear threats in Iran and North
AND - There is room for only one great power in the Western Hemisphere.
Chinese influence in Latin America causes Taiwan war
Fergusson 12 (Robbie, Researcher at Royal Society for the Arts, Featured Contributor at International Business Times, Former Conference and Research Assistant at Security Watch, Former Researcher at University College London, Master of Science, China in the International Arena, The University of Glasgow, “The Chinese Challenge to the Monroe Doctrine,” http://www.e-ir.info/2012/07/23/does-chinese-growth-in-latin-america-threaten-american-interests/)
Taiwan – domestic, or foreign policy?¶ China’s goals in the region amount to
AND
the PRC to conclude a settlement on Taiwan, perhaps by force.
Taiwan crisis is likely this year---draws in the U.S.
Michael Mazza 1-3, research fellow in foreign and defense policy at the American Enterprise Institute, 1/3/13, “Four Surprises That Could Rock Asia in 2013,” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/03/four_surprises_that_could_rock_asia_in_2012?page=full
Since President Ma Ying-jeou came to power in 2008, Taipei and Beijing
AND
ally -- could throw U.S.-China relations into a tailspin.
Taiwan escalates and goes nuclear---no defense
William Lowther 3-16, Taipei Times, citing a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3/16/13, “Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report,” http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211
Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China
AND
arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating.”
Cuba engagement is key to Obama’s credibility---reverses the perceived decline of US influence---solves multilateralism
Dickerson 10 – Lieutenant Colonel Sergio M. Dickerson, 2010, "United States Security Strategy Towards Cuba," Strategy Research Project, www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2anddoc=GetTRDoc.pdfandAD=ADA518053
Conclusion¶ Today, 20 years have passed since the fall of the Berlin Wall
AND
decline in the greater global order bringing true peace for years to come.
Obama weakness causes global conflict
Coes 11 – Ben Coes 11, a former speechwriter in the George H.W. Bush administration, managed Mitt Romney’s successful campaign for Massachusetts Governor in 2002 and author, “The disease of a weak president”, The Daily Caller, http://dailycaller.com/2011/09/30/the-disease-of-a-weak-president/
The disease of a weak president usually begins with the Achilles’ heel all politicians are
AND
one or the other. The status quo is simply not an option.
Engagement is inevitable, it’s a question of effectiveness---Obama’s credibility solves South China Seas conflict and Russia resurgence
Ghitis 13 (Frida, world affairs columnist for The Miami Herald and World Politics Review. A former CNN producer and correspondent, she is the author of The End of Revolution: A Changing World in the Age of Live Television. “World to Obama: You can't ignore us,” 1/22, http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/22/opinion/ghitis-obama-world)
President Obama made it very clear: The second term is all about the domestic
AND
with the best laid, most well-intentioned plans of American presidents.
South China Sea conflict causes nuclear war
Wittner 11 (Lawrence S. Wittner, Emeritus Professor of History at the State University of New York/Albany, Wittner is the author of eight books, the editor or co-editor of another four, and the author of over 250 published articles and book reviews. From 1984 to 1987, he edited Peace and Change, a journal of peace research., 11/28/2011, "Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?", www.huntingtonnews.net/14446)
While nuclear weapons exist, there remains a danger that they will be used.
AND
—destroying agriculture, creating worldwide famine, and generating chaos and destruction.
Russia resurgence causes nuclear war
Blank 9 (Dr. Stephen, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf)
Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia can then deter regional or intercontinental attacks
AND
perhaps make wars of aggression on their neighbors or their own people.172
1AC Economy
Cuban oil dependence on Venezuela is unsustainable---Venezuela will cut off supplies
Keppel 3/16 (Stephen, ABC News, “What Chávez's Death Means for Cuba, Venezuela and the U.S.” http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/chavezs-death-means-cuba-venezuela-us/story?id=18669003)
Upon hearing news of the death of Hugo Chávez, scores of Venezuelans gathered in
AND
Chávez and may not be able to maintain popularity if things get tougher.
Oil’s key to Cuba’s economy
Benjamin-Alvadaro 10 (Jonathan, Report for the Cuban Research Institute, Florida International University, PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association, “Cuba’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation”)
The power and hydrocarbon sectors are inextricably linked, as Cuba produces about 85 percent
AND
uses; this is consistent with the usage breakdown seen in other countries.
US-Cuban oil cooperation is key to revitalize their domestic oil sector
Benjamin-Alvadaro 6 (Jonathan, Report for the Cuban Research Institute, Florida International University, PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association, “The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special,” http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/oil-cuba-alvarado.pdf)
Why is it important to clarify the current status of Cuban energy in the face
AND
confidence, trust and cooperation in this critical issue area across the region.
The plan solves Cuban dependence on Venezuela---revenues lead to political reforms that create stability
Pinon 11 – Jorge R. Piñón is a visiting research fellow at the Latin American and Caribbean Center’s Cuban Research Institute at FIU. Spring 2011, "Why the United States and Cuba Collaborate (and What Could Happen If They Don't)"casgroup.fiu.edu/pages/docs/2157/1306356964_Hemisphere_Vol._20.pdf
If Cuba’s suspected but yet undiscovered hydrocarbon reserves are proven real, it will take
AND
from the guidance of a variety of partners, including the United States.
Cuban instability collapse causes Latin American instability, terrorism, democratic backsliding, and distracts the US from critical hotspots including Africa, the Caucus, and North Korea
Gorrell 5 (Tim, Lieutenant Colonel, “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?” 3/18, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074)
Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s
AND
in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?
Caucus instability causes nuclear war
Blank 2k – MacArthur Professor of Research @ The Strategic Studies Institute @ US Army War College (Stephen, “U.S. MILITARY ENGAGEMENT WITH TRANSCAUCASIA AND CENTRAL ASIA,” June, http://www.bits.de/NRANEU/docs/Blank2000.pdf)
In 1993 Moscow even threatened World War III to deter Turkish intervention on behalf of
AND
(5) neither has willing proxies capable of settling the situation.74
Korean instability causes nuclear war
Chol 11 Kim Myong Chol is author of a number of books and papers in Korean, Japanese and English on North Korea, including Kim Jong-il's Strategy for Reunification. He has a PhD from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's Academy of Social Sciences "Dangerous games" Aug 20 www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/MH20Dg01.html
The divided and heavily armed Korean Peninsula remains the most inflammable global flashpoint, with
AND
each spewing as much radioactive fallout as 150-180 H-bombs. Caribbean terrorism leads to attack on the US---they’ll use bioweapons
Bryan 1 (Anthony T. Bryan, director of the North-South Center’s Caribbean Program, 10-21-2001. CFR, Terrorism, Porous Borders, and Homeland Security: The Case for U.S.-Caribbean Cooperation, p.
http://www.cfr.org/publication/4844/terrorism_porous_borders_and%20_homeland_%20security.html)
Terrorist acts can take place anywhere. The Caribbean is no exception. Already the
AND
else to the clandestine manufacture and deployment of biological weapons within national borders.
Risk of bioterror is high---extinction
Matheny 7 Jason is a research associate at Oxford University’s Future of Humanity Institute. He previously worked at the Center for Biosecurity and holds an MBA from Duke University. “Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction,” Risk Analysis Vol. 27, No. 5, http://users.physics.harvard.edu/~wilson/pmpmta/Mahoney_extinction.pdf
Of current extinction risks, the most severe may be bioterrorism. The knowledge needed
AND
to respond to pandemics (Lam, Franco, and Shuler, 2006).
Latin American democracy solves environmental destruction
Callejas 10 (Danny, Professor of Economics at the Universidad de Antioquia, Colombia, “Democracy and Environmental Quality in Latin America: A Panel System of Equations Approach, 1995-2008,” November)
Democracy has a positive effect on environmental quality. The theory suggests that democracy sustains
AND
results suggest that democracy and education have a positive effect on environmental quality.
Extinction
Takacs 96 (David, Philosophies of Paradise, The Johns Hopkins Univ. Pr., Baltimore)
"Habitat destruction and conversion are eliminating species at such a frightening pace that extinction
AND
the famines could lead to a thermonuclear war, which could extinguish civilization.""
1AC Solvency
The Secretary of the Treasury can modify the embargo to allow drilling
Huddleston 9 (Vicki Huddleston, deputy assistant secretary of defense for Africa at the Department of Defense, visiting fellow at Brookings and co-director of the Brookings Project on U.S. Policy Toward a Cuba in Transition from 2007 to 2009, Carlos Pascual, U.S. ambassador to Mexico, He was vice president and director of Foreign Policy at Brookings from 2006 to 2009, “Use "Smart Power" to Help Cubans,” http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2009/02/24-cuba-huddleston)
Executive authority¶ Again and again we hear that the embargo can't be changed because
AND
to live up to international norms of human rights, democracy and transparency.
The plan allows for US-Cuban oil cooperation
Benjamin 10 – Jonathan Benjamin-Alvadaro, Report for the Cuban Research Institute, Florida International University, PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association, 2010, Brookings Institution book, “Cuba’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation”
Conclusion and Recommendations
Undoubtedly, after fifty years of enmity, there is a significant lack of trust
AND
important to those crafting future policy and making changes in the policymaking milieu. |
| 03/31/2013 | |
| 03/31/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
2AC United States T
We meet—plan text says in the US---we only remove restrictions on topical areas
We meet---the Eastern Gap is US territory
MMS 6 – Minerals Management Service, now known as the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, February 2006, “Report to Congress: Comprehensive Inventory of U.S. OCS Oil and Natural Gas Resources,” http://www.boem.gov/uploadedFiles/BOEM/Oil_and_Gas_Energy_Program/Resource_Evaluation/Resource_Assessment/2006-FinalInventoryReportDeliveredToCongress.pdf
2. Restrictions on Access to the OCS for Oil and Gas Exploration and Development
AND
Eastern Gap is minimal and additional information is needed to evaluate the potential.
Counter-interp---in the U.S. means under federal jurisdiction---we meet
MMS 6 – Minerals Management Service, now known as the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, February 2006, “Report to Congress: Comprehensive Inventory of U.S. OCS Oil and Natural Gas Resources,” http://www.boem.gov/uploadedFiles/BOEM/Oil_and_Gas_Energy_Program/Resource_Evaluation/Resource_Assessment/2006-FinalInventoryReportDeliveredToCongress.pdf
This report first summarizes the results of the Minerals Management Service (MMS) 2006
AND
government-sponsored geological or geophysical data acquisition was undertaken for this inventory.
Counter-interp: “in the U.S.” includes the extended OCS---this is how the fed gov interprets its jurisdiction ---proven by how we offer leases in the Western Gap now
Steven Groves 12, the Bernard and Barbara Lomas Fellow in the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom at The Heritage Foundation, 6/14/12, testimony, Hearing before the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations On The Law of the Sea Convention (Treaty Doc. 103-39), http://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Groves%20prepared%20testimony%20for%20UNCLOS%20hearing%20(final).pdf
However, pursuant to long-standing law and policy the United States already enjoys
AND
more than $2 million for seven lease blocks in the western gap.
Aff ground---The topic is stale---international affs key to innovation and rebalancing sides
Neg ground---They get unique relations DAs, say No arguments, etc.
Education---joint ventures are important in a globalizing world
No limits impact---we only allow coop affs in the US---that’s Cuba and Mexico at most
Predictability---international agreements are normal parts of drilling policy
Curry L. Hagerty 11, Specialist in Energy and Natural Resources Policy, Congressional Research Service, 5/6/11, “Outer Continental Shelf Moratoria on Oil and Gas Development,” http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41132.pdf
Congress sets policy for OCS activity and determines legislative incentives and restrictions for OCS development
AND
laws that may restrict or encourage development in certain areas of the OCS.
Precision---US code is most predictable---turns limits because stable ground is key to negative research
Reasonability---prevents a race to the bottom to exclude the aff arbitrarily---no way for the aff to get offense |
| 03/31/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
2AC Restrictions T
We meet---the Eastern Gap is restricted from oil production now
MMS 6 – Minerals Management Service, now known as the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, February 2006, “Report to Congress: Comprehensive Inventory of U.S. OCS Oil and Natural Gas Resources,” http://www.boem.gov/uploadedFiles/BOEM/Oil_and_Gas_Energy_Program/Resource_Evaluation/Resource_Assessment/2006-FinalInventoryReportDeliveredToCongress.pdf
2. Restrictions on Access to the OCS for Oil and Gas Exploration and Development
AND
Eastern Gap is minimal and additional information is needed to evaluate the potential.
The embargo is a restriction on oil production
Edward J. Markey 11, Ranking Member, House Committee on Natural Resources, 11/2/11, “NORTH AMERICAN OFFSHORE ENERGY: MEXICO AND CANADA BOUNDARY TREATIES AND NEW DRILLING BY CUBA AND BAHAMAS,” http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-112hhrg71116/html/CHRG-112hhrg71116.htm
But who are the companies that are planning to drill in the waters off of
AND
American companies drilling off of Cuba that is the result of the embargo.
We meet---it’s FUNCTIONALLY a total ban---no companies can drill with US tech---that’s Benjamin
Counter-interp---restrictions are conditions on action
Plummer 29 J., Court Justice, MAX ZLOZOWER, Respondent, v. SAM LINDENBAUM et al., Appellants Civ. No. 3724COURT OF APPEAL OF CALIFORNIA, THIRD APPELLATE DISTRICT100 Cal. App. 766; 281 P. 102; 1929 Cal. App. LEXIS 404September 26, 1929, Decided, lexis
The word "restriction," when used in connection with the grant of interest in
AND
a particular event, or the performance or nonperformance of a particular act.
No limits distinction---no way to distinguish outright ban affs and affs that restrict production AND include the chance of total prohibition
Aff ground outweighs---the neg has generics and Ks--- bad affs with no lit set the ground for a bad debate
Education---they prevent holistic energy education---they destroy natural gas and coal affs because they are all based on EPA emissions restrictions
Topic meaning---no direct federal prohibitions---only we can give meaning to every topic word; resolutional language is the only non-arbitrary way to set predictable limits
Reasonability---prevents a race to the bottom to exclude the aff arbitrarily---no way for the aff to get offense |
| 03/31/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
Look Back CP
No solvency---no international perception---regulations would be on the books
No certainty
Kills obama’s cred---makes new energy policy subservient to domestic politics
Perm do the counterplan as the mechanism of the USFG doing the plan and guarantee the plan gets passed---competition is based on mandates NOT likely outcomes---they just change normal means
Process counterplans are a voting issue---these make aff offense impossible, kill topic focus
Perm do both
Perm do the counterplan
Should is not mandatory
Atlas Collaboration 99
Use of shall, should, may can,”
AND
may grants permission to do something, and makes only a weak statement.
Perm do the counterplan, then the plan
Massive delays --- their evidence’s based on outdated wishful thinking
Selmi 5 – Daniel Selmi 5, Prof Law at Loyola, 35 Envtl. L. 415, lexis - Time as a False Indicator¶ An ongoing point of contention in the
AND
as this negotiation did, parties must expect that negotiations will lengthen substantially.
Reg neg involves thousands of parties---prevents consensus and implementation
Camacho 5 – Alejandro Camacho 5, Associate Prof of Law at Notre Dame, 24 Stan. Envtl. L.J. 269, lexis
Though achieving collaboration and consensus is certainly possible in administrative regulatory contexts, the prospect
AND
, *324 making agreement formation and implementation that much more difficult.
Agencies will circumvent implementing the reg neg
Harter 97 – Phillip J. Harter 97, expert in administrative law at Univ. of Vermont, April 1997, 46 Duke L.J. 1389
A negotiated rulemaking forces the parties to bring an enormous amount of practical information to
AND
could have fully participated both in internal caucuses and in the negotiating sessions.
CP creates MORE uncertainty
Coglianese 1 – Cary Coglianese 1, associate professor of public policy at Harvard and chair of the Regulatory Policy Program at the Center for Business and Government, “Assessing The Advocacy of Negotiated Rulemaking: A Response to Philip Harter”, Kennedy School of Government Faculty Research Working Paper Series, May, http://www.hks.harvard.edu/m-rcbg/research/c.coglianese_new.york_assessing.advocacy.pdf
Despite nearly twenty years of experimentation, negotiated rulemaking has yet to achieve a demonstrable
AND
the quality of regulatory policy when compared with other ways of developing regulations.
OIRA wouldn’t recommend the aff---wants to get rid of red tape, which is not the embargo
1AR
DOT wouldn’t follow on
Birns and Strain 10 - Larry Birns, Director of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, and Kelsey Strain, Research Associate at the COHA, November 18, 2010, "The Mid-Term Elections: An Easy Prediction for the Future of U.S.-Cuba Relations," online: http://www.coha.org/the-mid-term-elections-an-easy-prediction-for-the-future-of-u-s-cuba-relations/
As former U.S. Ambassador to Cuba, Wayne Smith, explains,
AND
primary objective, should he decide that it is worth the political investment.
Fails---gridlock
Camacho 5 – Alejandro Camacho 5, Associate Prof of Law at Notre Dame, 24 Stan. Envtl. L.J. 269, lexis
Though achieving collaboration and consensus is certainly possible in administrative regulatory contexts, the prospect
AND
is being considered for a potential rulemaking is in itself a logistical challenge. Even
AND
, *324 making agreement formation and implementation that much more difficult. |
| 03/31/2013 | Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
2AC SEP
Perm do the counterplan as the mechanism of the USFG doing the plan and guarantee the plan gets passed---competition is based on mandates NOT likely outcomes---they just change normal means
Process counterplans are a voting issue---these make aff offense impossible, kill topic focus
Perm do both
Perm do the counterplan
The counterplan is a reduction – if it’s on paper but not enforced it is NOT a restriction
Berger 1 Justice Opinion, INDUSTRIAL RENTALS, INC., ISAAC BUDOVITCH and FLORENCE BUDOVITCH, Appellants Below, Appellants, v. NEW CASTLE COUNTY BOARD OF ADJUSTMENT and NEW CASTLE COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF LAND USE, Appellees Below, Appellees. No. 233, 2000SUPREME COURT OF DELAWARE776 A.2d 528; 2001 Del. LEXIS 300April 10, 2001, Submitted July 17, 2001, Decided lexis
We disagree. Statutes must be read as a whole and all the words must
AND
projects should not have been included in the scope of the Budovitches' TIS.
No one will take the exemption, and the SEP is not enough money to fund OTEC
Brown 11 – Mr. Brown holds an MBA from New York University and a BA from Brown University. Matthew Brown is President of InterEnergy Solutions, a consulting firm that focuses on clean energy policy and finance. 2011, "Brief #1: Funding Mechanisms for Energy Efficiency"ase.org/resources/brief-1-funding-mechanisms-energy-efficiency
Funds are not predictable because they depend on fines that state environmental agencies issue,
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on with business operations.¶ Not likely to provide large amounts of funding.
Perm do the plan and conduct SEPs on other issues
The SEP will not be approved – their author
Bonorris 7 – Steven Bonorris, Editor, The Public Law Research Institute University of California, Hastings College of the Law, 2007, http://www.ecy.wa.gov/services/enforce/settlements/ABAHastingsSEPreport.pdf
Legal Principles¶ 1. A SEP will not be approved if the violator is
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-media or facility-wide activity that provides widespread¶ environmental benefit.
The EPA will not approve the SEPs
Bonorris 7 – Steven Bonorris 7, Associate Director for Research, Public Law Research Institute, UC Hastings College of the Law, 1/25/7, “Supplemental Environmental Projects: A Fifty State Survey with Model Practices,” http://www.ecy.wa.gov/services/enforce/settlements/ABAHastingsSEPreport.pdf
In addition, the allowance of a SEP as part of an enforcement action is
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the agency will then deduct from the mitigation amount of the SEP. 186
No solvency --- causes regulatory uncertainty
Steven Bonorris 7, Associate Director for Research, Public Law Research Institute, UC Hastings College of the Law, 1/25/7, “Supplemental Environmental Projects: A Fifty State Survey with Model Practices,” http://www.ecy.wa.gov/services/enforce/settlements/ABAHastingsSEPreport.pdf
The capacity for underdeterrence is particularly acute as the SEP cost itself is a new
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literature has not quantified the efficacy of these measures against opportunistic violators. 189
Companies won’t implement SEPs
Kristl 7 – Kenneth T. Kristl 7, Associate Professor of Law and Director of the Environmental and Natural Resources Law Clinic, Widener University School of Law, “MAKING A GOOD IDEA EVEN BETTER: RETHINKING THE LIMITS ON SUPPLEMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECTS,” Vermont Law Review, Vol. 31, 2007, http://lawreview.vermontlaw.edu/files/2012/02/kristl.pdf
A second potential impediment to wider SEP usage lies in the clear “second rate
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percentage (and hence the value of an SEP dollar) at 80%?
Soil Defense No impact to soil erosion - all hype - your authors agree
Simon 97 Julian L. Simon teaches business at the University of Maryland and is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. "Digging Deeper Into the Soil Erosion Scam," June 3, CATO, https://www.google.com/search?sugexp=chrome,mod=13andsourceid=chromeandie=UTF-8andq=Digging+Deeper+Into+the+Soil+Erosion+Scam This program is part-and-parcel of the most conclusive discredited environmental-
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claimed. And this finding undercuts the new USDA program being proposed now. |
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Immigration DA No DA
Obama’s pursuing energy policy through agencies which doesn’t cost PC, doesn’t trade off with immigration, and pounds the disad
Amy Harder 2-6, Energy and Environment Correspondent, National Journal, 2/6/13, “In Washington, Energy and Climate Issues Get Shoved in the Closet,” http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/power-play/in-washington-energy-and-climate-issues-get-shoved-in-the-closet-20130206
While Obama maneuvers for a big legislative win on immigration, he’s moving on a
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panel, to move through Congress smaller bits of energy and environmental policy. High-Skilled Inev
Loss of PC still results in high-skill reform
Yglesias 1/15 Matthew, Slate, 2013, How the GOP Can Roll Obama on Immigration, www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/01/15/immigration_reform_will_obama_get_rolled.html
Of the major policy issues under discussion in Washington, "immigration reform" stands
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kind of fanaticism that is the exact opposite of Obama's approach to politics. No high skilled worker shortage
Richard B. Freeman 6 holds the Herbert Ascherman Chair in Economics at Harvard University IS A GREAT LABOR SHORTAGE COMING? REPLACEMENT DEMAND IN THEGLOBAL ECONOMY" Sept 06 www.law.harvard.edu/programs/lwp/2006September.pdf
The most plausible reason is that older workers tend to be concentrated in older economic
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persons to changes in relative supplies (Freeman, 1979; Welch 1979). No Impact
Obama will XO immigration reforms
Lillis 2-16 – Mike Lillis, February 16th, 2013, "Dems: Obama can act unilaterally on immigration reform" thehill.com/blogs/regwatch/administration/283583-dems-recognize-that-obama-can-act-unilaterally-on-immigration-reform
President Obama can – and will – take steps on immigration reform in the event
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talented in, but there's also a labor flow issue," he said.
Timeframe is more than 10 years
Navarrette 2-19 – Ruben Navarrette, CNN Contributor, February 19th, 2013, "Guest worker issue may kill immigration reform" www.cnn.com/2013/02/19/opinion/navarrette-immigration-reform/index.html
How long? The undocumented could immediately apply for a special protective status to avoid deportation, but it would take them about eight years to get legal permanent residency (a green card) and another four or five years to become a U.S. citizen.
AT: Economy
No chance of war from economic decline---best and most recent data
Daniel W. Drezner 12, Professor, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, October 2012, “The Irony of Global Economic Governance: The System Worked,” http://www.globaleconomicgovernance.org/wp-content/uploads/IR-Colloquium-MT12-Week-5_The-Irony-of-Global-Economic-Governance.pdf
The final outcome addresses a dog that hasn’t barked: the effect of the Great
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II – and not even worse – must be regarded as fortunate.”42
2AC Immigration
Won’t pass---and gun control and budget pounds
Altman 3/20 Alex Altman, Washington correspondent for TIME, “Four Hurdles That Could Block Immigration Reform,” http://swampland.time.com/2013/03/20/four-hurdles-that-could-block-immigration-reform/
The next few months offer the best chance in a generation for the two parties
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is high. Each day, 1,400 undocumented immigrants are deported.
No spillover
Judson Berger 3-4, 2013, “Recurring budget crises could put squeeze on Obama's second-term priorities,” Fox News, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/03/04/recurring-budget-crises-could-put-squeeze-on-obama-second-term-priorities/#ixzz2OknXmt3G
Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill., a vocal advocate for immigration reform
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.C., who both are part of a bipartisan group crafting legislation.
Infrastructure pounds---it’s top of the agenda
Lederman 3-29 – Josh Lederman, Associated Press, March 29th, 2013, "Obama pitches public works spending to create jobs" www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2013/03/29/obama-to-pitch-infrastructure-investments-in-miami
MIAMI (AP) — Trying to show that the economy remains a top priority
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be included in the budget Obama is scheduled to release on April 10.
Obama not key
The Link, 3/30/13, “US To Pass New Immigration Bill By This Summer”, http://thelinkpaper.ca/?p=27900
While overhauling America’s patchwork immigration laws is a top second term priority for the president
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table, Obama has stayed relatively quiet on immigration over the last month.
Cuba
Only drilling in U.S. waters link-turns politics---the possibility of revenues being shared with states is key to bipart
Coral Davenport 13, energy and environment correspondent, National Journal, 2/5/13, “Breakthrough Nears on Tapping Offshore Energy Supply,” http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/breakthrough-nears-on-tapping-offshore-energy-supply-20130205
In a season of political gridlock, a breakthrough could be near on legislation to
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interested in job creation and protecting the environment,” Wyden told National Journal.
oil loves the plan and lobby for it---determines Congressional sentiment
Sadowski 11 – Richard Sadowski 11, J.D., Hofstra University School of Law, Fall 2011, “IN THIS ISSUE: NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICT: CUBAN OFFSHORE DRILLING: PREPARATION AND PREVENTION WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE UNITED STATES' EMBARGO,” Sustainable Development Law and Policy, 12 Sustainable Dev. L. and Pol'y 37, p. lexis
A U.S. Geological Survey estimates that Cuba's offshore oil fields hold at
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to develop new oil resources on the doorstep of the United States." n42 |
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Drilling Bad DA Link ev is about North Atlantic---not where plan drills
Spills are inevitable---regulations fail
Nerurkar and Sullivan 11 (Neelesh Nerurkar, Specialist in Energy Policy, Mark P. Sullivan, Specialist in Latin American Affairs, Congressional Research Service, “Cuba’s Offshore Oil Development: Background and U.S. Policy Considerations,” http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41522.pdf)
Oil Spill Risks29
The Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico heightened
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time existence of regulations and regulator may not always prevent an oil spill.
Tons of offshore drilling now
Michael Conathan 12, Director of Ocean Policy at the Center for American Progress, spent five years staffing the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation’s Subcommittee on Oceans, Atmosphere, Fisheries, and Coast Guard, master’s degree in marine affairs from the University of Rhode Island, 2/29/12, “More Drilling Won’t Lower Gas Prices,” http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/news/2012/02/29/11091/more-drilling-wont-lower-gas-prices/
As fundamental as the law of supply and demand might be to macroeconomic theory, the on-the-ground reality is that more drilling will not lower gas prices. Here’s why:
It hasn’t worked yet. There are currently more oil rigs operating on U.
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drilling. All that additional activity hasn’t stemmed the recent gas price spike. Oceans resilient
Kennedy 2 - Environmental science prof, Maryland. Former Director, Cooperative Oxford Laboratory. PhD. (Victor, Coastal and Marine Ecosystems and Global Climate Change, http://www.pewclimate.org/projects/marine.cfm)
There is evidence that marine organisms and ecosystems are resilient to environmental change. Steele
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variability throughout their range, which may allow for adaptation to climate change.
Marine life resilient
Dulvy 3 – Professor of Marine Science and Technology, Newcastle (Nicholas, Extinction vulnerability in marine populations, Fish and Fisheries 4.1)
Marine fish populations are more variable and resilient than terrestrial populations Great natural variability in
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population fluctuations when there are few adults (Pauly et al. 2002). Cuban drilling is inevitable—only the plan allows for safe drilling that prevents spills
Stephens et al 11 (Sarah, Executive Director of the Center for Democracy in the Americas, “As Cuba plans to drill in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. policy poses needless risks to our national interest,” http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf)
This year Cuba and its foreign partners will begin drilling for oil in the Gulf
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.¶ There is little time and much to do before the drilling begins.
Economy No Impact The fact that it worked well in response to 2008 means it’ll work even better next time
Daniel W. Drezner 12, Professor, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, October 2012, “The Irony of Global Economic Governance: The System Worked,” http://www.globaleconomicgovernance.org/wp-content/uploads/IR-Colloquium-MT12-Week-5_The-Irony-of-Global-Economic-Governance.pdf
It is equally possible, however, that a renewed crisis would trigger a renewed
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been in operation since 1945 does not appear to be closing anytime soon. AT: Mexico
Squo solves
Porter 2-5 – Eduardo Porter, writer for the New York Times, February 5th, 2013, "Immigration Reform Issue: The Effect on the Budget" www.nytimes.com/2013/02/06/business/immigration-reform-issue-the-effect-on-the-budget.html?pagewanted=allandpagewanted=print
Yet immigration reform today means something quite different than it did in 2007. Notably
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Diego. “The flow of new immigrants is not the story anymore.” Energy Key Obama PC fails now---action on OCS drilling’s a key olive branch that generates GOP support for other priorities like immigration
CSM 1-20 – Christian Science Monitor, 1/20/13, “Obama’s second term: Can he work with Congress? (+video),” http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/USA/DC-Decoder/2013/0120/Obama-s-second-term-Can-he-work-with-Congress-video
“The president has been criticized by many people for his inability or unwillingness to
AND the deeply-red right and the president could agree: energy policy.
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have plenty of GOP support – but that remains a large “if.” |
