Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 1 | Opponent: Georgetown AM | Judge: Collin Roark
FISCAL CLIFF DA

Congress is on track to make a deal to prevent sequestration cuts now—-Obama’s political capital is key to forge a compromise

Weisman 10/1 Jonathan is a writer at the New York Times. "Leaders at Work on Plan to Avert Mandatory Cuts," 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/02/us/senate-leaders-at-work-on-plan-to-avert-fiscal-cliff.html?hp%26_r=0
WASHINGTON — Senate leaders are closing in on a path for dealing with the "
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the deal, deliver the members of his party and sign the bill."

Pushing military energy initiatives poisons the well for fiscal cliff negotiations—-the link’s unique because green military spending’s been cut

Jeff Sorenson 9-28, a retired lieutenant general (U.S. Army), is a vice president and partner in A.T. Kearney’s defense practice and a former U.S. Army chief information officer, 9/28/12, "Saving energy, saving soldiers’ lives," http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economy-a-budget/259163-saving-energy-saving-soldiers-lives
From biofuels that could propel the Navy’s Great Green Fleet to spending billions of dollars
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make one question the fiscal sense of investing billions on renewable energy projects.

Going over the fiscal cliff causes a second great depression

Morici 8/7 Peter, PhD, is a "recognized expert on economic policy and international economics." He is a Professor of International Business at the R.H. Smith School of Business at the University of Maryland. "Fix fiscal cliff now or face next Great Depression," 2012, http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/08/07/fix-fiscal-cliff-now-or-face-next-great-depression/
President Obama and Republicans are engaging in dangerous brinksmanship. Putting off a political solution to the looming "fiscal cliff" until after the election risks a second Great Depression.¶ Without a compromise by January, %24400 billion in mandatory spending cuts and more than %24100 billion in tax increases will immediately go into effect. With our economy only growing by only %24300 billion annually, such a shock would thrust it into a prolonged contraction.

Global nuclear war

Harris %26 Burrows 9 Mathew, PhD European History @ Cambridge, counselor of the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer, member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit "Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis" http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf
Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is
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within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world. 

TOPICALITY

Financial incentives include funding and loan guarantees; procurement is a non-financial incentive

Czinkota et al, 9 - Associate Professor at the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University (Michael, Fundamentals of International Business, p. 69 – google books)
Incentives offered by policymakers to facilitate foreign investments are mainly of three types: fiscal
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import quotas, and local content requirements, and investments in infrastructure facilities.

Voting issue for limits and ground – they allow a litany of government actions that indirectly might encourage use of energy – overstretches our research burden and undermines preparedness for all debates.

STATES COUNTERPLAN

The governments of the fifty states and all relevant non-federal territories should offer substantial financial incentives to utilities that agree to supply military facilities with electricity from small modular reactors built to specifications determined by the military.

State governments can use financial incentives to spur nuclear power

NEI 09 (Nuclear Energy Institute, "Policies That Support New Nuclear Power Plant Development", http://www.nei.org/resourcesandstats/documentlibrary/newplants/factsheet/policiessupportnewplantdevelopment/?print=true)
State Policies Several states have passed legislation or implemented regulations, or both, to
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, and, thereby, keeping the cost of electricity for consumers lower.

OBAMA GOOD ELECTIONS DA

Obama will win the election now, but Romney could still close the gap

Beaumont 9/30 Thomas is a writer for the Associated Press. "Obama Would Win If Election Held Today: AP," 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/30/obama-election-2012-romney_n_1926620.html
Five weeks to Election Day, President Barack Obama is within reach of the 270
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he is competing aggressively. Time, though, is running out. 

Advocating nuclear would be election suicide for Obama—-he’s backing off it now

Levine 9/7 Gregg is a contributing editor and former managing editor of Firedoglake. "Obama Drops Nuclear from Energy Segment of Convention Speech," 2012, http://capitoilette.com/2012/09/07/obama-drops-nuclear-from-energy-segment-of-convention-speech/
That Duke’s CEO thought to highlight efficiency is interesting. That President Obama, with
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second shot at casting for the future, nuclear power is political deadweight.

Romney win decks US-Russia Relations – threatens multiple scenarios for war

Felton 12 Emmanuel Felton is a Toni Stable Fellow at the Columbia School of Journalism. "Mitt Romney Russia Quotes Signal Big Problems For Future US-Russian Relations," March, http://www.policymic.com/articles/6202/mitt-romney-russia-quotes-signal-big-problems-for-future-us-russian-relations
The importance of America’s alliance with Russia is highlighted by the very context of Obama
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, global security will continue to be undermined by an increasingly hostile Kremlin. 

DOD ADV

Status quo solves islanding—-the military figured out their advantage and fixed it

Michael Aimone 9-12, Director, Business Enterprise Integration, Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense (Installations and Environment), 9/12/12, Statement Before the House Committee on Homeland Security, Subcommittee on Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Protection and Security Technologies, http://homeland.house.gov/sites/homeland.house.gov/files/Testimony%20-%20Aimone.pdf
DoD’s facility energy strategy is also focused heavily on grid security in the name of
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, to Keesler Air Force Base in Mississippi, to support base recovery.   

Alternative financing means utilities—-not the military—-own the SMRs

GAO 12 – Government Accountability Office, 4/4/12, "IMPROVED GUIDANCE AND INFORMATION SHARING NEEDED FOR DOD PROJECT-LEVEL OFFICIALS," RPT-NUMBER: GAO-12-401, p. lexis
— Operation and maintenance of equipment. According to several officials, the operation and
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of the equipment, which can be a drawback of these two approaches.

That means the plan doesn’t cause islanding—-utilities say no

Annie Snider 12, E%26E reporter, 1/27/12, "Clean energy doesn’t always bring security for military," http://www.eenews.net/public/Greenwire/2012/01/27/1
Just north of Las Vegas, a shimmering array of solar panels captures energy from
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federal green-energy mandates but provide little security benefit to the military.

DOD pursuit of SMRs sends a global signal of impending U.S. military aggression—-causes resentment against U.S. unilateralism

Terrence P. Smith 11, program coordinator and research assistant with the William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy at the CSIS, February 16, 2011, "An Idea I Can Do Without: "Small Nuclear Reactors for Military Installations,"" http://csis.org/blog/idea-i-can-do-without-small-nuclear-reactors-military-installations
The report repeatedly emphasizes the point that "DOD’s "’first mover’ pursuit of small
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production." My point is, maybe that is where they should stay.

The U.S. is pursuing a grand strategy of multilateral legitimacy now—-perception of a swing back toward unilateral military primacy collapses heg

Kevin Fujimoto 12, Lt. Colonel, U.S. Army, January 11, 2012, "Preserving U.S. National Security Interests Through a Liberal World Construct," online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Preserving-US-National-Security-Interests-Liberal-World-Construct/2012/1/11-http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Preserving-US-National-Security-Interests-Liberal-World-Construct/2012/1/11
The emergence of peer competitors, not terrorism, presents the greatest long-term
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protect its interests later when we are no longer the world’s only superpower.

Grid shutdown is just a nuisance—no impact

Douglas Birch 12, former foreign correspondent for the Associated Press and the Baltimore Sun who has written extensively on technology and public policy, "Forget Revolution," October 1, Foreign Policy, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/10/01/forget_revolution?page=full
But are cyber attacks really a clear and present danger to society’s critical life support
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the situation now. But this is not the end of the world."

No risk of a cyber-attack on the grid

Douglas Birch 12, former foreign correspondent for the Associated Press and the Baltimore Sun who has written extensively on technology and public policy, "Forget Revolution," October 1, Foreign Policy, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/10/01/forget_revolution?page=full
Likewise, some of the bill’s advocates suspect that in the aftermath of a truly
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even terror groups have to factor in potential retaliation when planning their operations.

Economics prevent conflict escalation in the south china sea

Creehan ’12 – Senior Editor of the SAIS Review of International Affairs (Sean, "Assessing the Risks of Conflict in the
South China Sea," Winter/Spring, SAIS Review, Vol. 32, No. 1)
Regarding Secretary Clinton’s first requirement, the risk of actual closure of the South China
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conflict are so great that significant changes to the status quo are unlikely. 

WATER ADV

Desal is net bad for water scarcity

Earth Talk, 2012, "Can Ocean Desalination Solve the World’s Water Shortage?" http://environment.about.com/od/biodiversityconservation/a/desalination.htm
Food %26 Water Watch advocates instead for better fresh water management practices. "Ocean
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that will drain resources away from more practical solutions," the group says.

Desalination inevitable now

Earth Talk, 2012, "Can Ocean Desalination Solve the World’s Water Shortage?" http://environment.about.com/od/biodiversityconservation/a/desalination.htm
Despite such arguments, the practice is becoming more common. Ted Levin of the
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" the practice as much as possible in lieu of eliminating it altogether.

Desal can’t solve – too expensive to ship water to the places that need it most

Increasing Population, 1-22-2010, "Fresh Water," http://increasingpopulation.blogspot.com/2010/01/fresh-water.html
Fresh water can be obtained from salt water by desalination. For example, Malta
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cause of marine pollution when dumped back into the oceans at high temperatures."

No water wars

Katz 11—Director of the Akirov Institute for Business and Environment at Tel Aviv University. PhD (David, Hydro-Political Hyperbole, Global Environmental Politics, 11; 1; Feb 2011)

A number critiques have been leveled against both the theory and the empirical evidence behind
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"support for a scarcity theory of water conflict is somewhat ambiguous."42

No risk of water wars—-historical evidence all concludes neg—-cooperation is way more likely and solves

Jeremy Allouche 11 is currently a Research Fellow at the Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex. "The sustainability and resilience of global water and food systems: Political analysis of the interplay between security, resource scarcity, political systems and global trade" Food PolicyVolume 36, Supplement 1, January 2011, Pages S3-S8 Accessed via: Science Direct Sciverse
Water/food resources, war and conflict

The question of resource scarcity has led to many debates on whether scarcity (whether
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Barnett and Adger, 2007~ and ~Kevane and Gray, 2008~).

No indo pak escalation

Enders 2 (Jan 30, David, Michigan Daily, "Experts say nuclear war still unlikely," http://www.michigandaily.com/content/experts-say-nuclear-war-still-unlikely)

• Ashutosh Varshney – Professor of Political Science and South Asia expert at the University of Michigan
• Paul Huth – Professor of International Conflict and Security Affairs at the University of Maryland
• Kenneth Lieberthal – Professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan. Former special assistant to President Clinton at the National Security Council 

University political science Prof. Ashutosh Varshney becomes animated when asked about the likelihood of
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command control system has strengthened. The trigger is in very safe hands."

Powers will work together to stabilize the region—security and economic incentives

Gresh 12 (Dr. Geoffrey F., Assistant Professor of International Security Studies at National Defense University, "Russia, China, and stabilizing South Asia", 3/12, http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/03/12/russia_china_and_stabilizing_south_asia)
As the U.S. begins to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, Russia and
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United States should embrace the transformation of a new era in Eurasia’s heartland.

Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 3 | Opponent: Kansas DW | Judge: Dave Strauss
OBAMA GOOD ELECTIONS DA

Obama will win the election now, but Romney could still close the gap

Beaumont 9/30 Thomas is a writer for the Associated Press. "Obama Would Win If Election Held Today: AP," 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/30/obama-election-2012-romney_n_1926620.html
Five weeks to Election Day, President Barack Obama is within reach of the 270
AND
he is competing aggressively. Time, though, is running out. 

Advocating nuclear would be election suicide for Obama—-he’s backing off it now

Levine 9/7 Gregg is a contributing editor and former managing editor of Firedoglake. "Obama Drops Nuclear from Energy Segment of Convention Speech," 2012, http://capitoilette.com/2012/09/07/obama-drops-nuclear-from-energy-segment-of-convention-speech/
That Duke’s CEO thought to highlight efficiency is interesting. That President Obama, with
AND
second shot at casting for the future, nuclear power is political deadweight.

Romney will label China a currency manipulator – causes a trade war

Palmer 12 Doug is a Reuters trade reporter. "Romney would squeeze China on currency manipulation-adviser," Mar 27, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/28/us-usa-romney-china-idUSBRE82Q0ZS20120328
(Reuters) - Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is looking at ways to increase
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Obama administration has not pushed for a House vote on the currency bill.

That causes full-scale war

Landy 7 ~Ben Landy, Director of Research and Strategy at the Atlantic Media Company, publisher of the Atlantic Monthly, National Journal, and Government Executive magazines April 3, 2007, http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/~~%23comments-http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/,~
The greatest threat for the 21st century is that these economic flare-ups between
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–far more than increases in military budgets and anti-satellite tests.

Extinction

Straits Times 2K ~June, 25, No one gains in war over Taiwan~
The US estimates that China possesses about 20 nuclear warheads that can destroy major American
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was to assess Chinese actions according to the American way of thinking.  "
Felton 12 Emmanuel Felton is a Toni Stable Fellow at the Columbia School of Journalism. "Mitt Romney Russia Quotes Signal Big Problems For Future US-Russian Relations," March, http://www.policymic.com/articles/6202/mitt-romney-russia-quotes-signal-big-problems-for-future-us-russian-relations
The importance of America’s alliance with Russia is highlighted by the very context of Obama
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, global security will continue to be undermined by an increasingly hostile Kremlin. 

TOPICALITY

THE AFF IS NOT TOPICAL

Financial incentives include funding and loan guarantees; procurement is a non-financial incentive

Czinkota et al, 9 - Associate Professor at the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University (Michael, Fundamentals of International Business, p. 69 – google books)
Incentives offered by policymakers to facilitate foreign investments are mainly of three types: fiscal
AND
import quotas, and local content requirements, and investments in infrastructure facilities.

Voting issue for limits and ground – they allow a litany of government actions that indirectly might encourage use of energy – overstretches our research burden and undermines preparedness for all debates.

MICRO-GRID CP

The United States Federal Government should substantially increase investment in smart microgrid technology for domestic military bases via a diverse portfolio tailored to individual installation circumstances, including non-nuclear renewable energies for on-site generation, increased backup generation capacity, improvements in energy efficiency and energy storage, intelligent local energy management, and accelerated implementation of the SPIDERS project.

Smart microgrids solve DOD grid vulnerability—-the combination of the CP’s mechanisms resolves the problems with each individual component

SERDP 12 – the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, DoD’s environmental science and technology program, executed in partnership with DOE and EPA, 7/10/12, "DoD Study Finds Microgrids Offer Improved Energy Security for DoD Installations," http://www.serdp.org/News-and-Events/News-Announcements/Program-News/DoD-study-finds-microgrids-offer-improved-energy-security-for-DoD-installations
Advanced microgrids offer a cost-effective solution to military installations’ growing vulnerability to the
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are configured so that they can earn value helping to meet those needs.

SPIDERS will produce effective renewable-based microgrids that guarantee communications and control survive grid outages

Robert K. Ackerman 12, SIGNAL Magazine, February 2012, "Military Energy Enters SPIDERS Web," http://www.afcea.org/content/?q=node/2877
No man may be an island, but each U.S. military base
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existing assets. Johnson emphasizes that SPIDERS will be energy-source agnostic.

123 DA

The US is pushing for a new 123 agreement with South Korea to include a "no enrichment and reprocessing" pledge but will cave due to lack of leverage and nuclear leadership
Mark Hibbs 12, SENIOR ASSOCIATE, NUCLEAR POLICY PROGRAM, Carnegie Endowment, "Negotiating Nuclear Cooperation Agreements," NUCLEAR ENERGY BRIEF, AUGUST 7, 2012 http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/08/07/negotiating-nuclear-cooperation-agreements/d98z-http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/08/07/negotiating-nuclear-cooperation-agreements/d98z
*ENR = uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing
The United States is currently negotiating bilateral agreements for peaceful nuclear cooperation under Section 123
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the United States, whether initiated by the White House or by Congress. 

The plan’s increase in US leadership and negotiating leverage means the US won’t make concessions on ENR

That kills the alliance —- key test case

Seongho Sheen 11, associate professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, Seoul National University, Nuclear Sovereignty versus Nuclear Security: Renewing the ROK-U.S. Atomic Energy Agreement, The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Vol. 23, No. 2, June 2011, 273–288, http://www.brookings.edu/~~/media/research/files/papers/2011/8/nuclear%20korea%20sheen/08_nuclear_korea_sheen
The most important challenge for Washington and Seoul is to prevent the issue from becoming
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" nuclear option until the complete resolution of North Korea’s nuclear issue.40 

Key to deter North Korea and maintain regional stability

Kurt M. Campbell 11 Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs "U.S. Policy Toward North Korea" March 1 Testimony Before SFRC
The primary strategic objective for U.S. engagement in the Asia-Pacific
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, and the readiness of alliance forces to respond to threats to peace.

Triggers escalation and war —- draws in great powers

Dibb 6, Emeritus Prof of IR @ Australian National University, Sydney Morning Herald (Australia), August 15, 2006 Tuesday, As one nuclear flashpoint reaches a lull, another simmers away, Pg. 11, Lexis
NOW that the building blocks for achieving a cessation in hostilities in the crisis involving
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as will the inevitable collision between Iran and Israel in the Middle East. 

PROLIF ADV

Nuclear renaissance won’t cause ENR spread, but states say no to U.S. efforts to preclude ENR

Shahriman Lockman 12, Senior Analyst in the Foreign Policy and Security Studies programme, Institute of Strategic and International Studies, 3/28/12, "Nuclear power’s limited usefulness and limited proliferation risk," http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/roundtables/nuclear-option-the-developing-world-weighs-energy-needs-and-security-risks~~%23
The thorny question. It is certain, then, that a number of developing
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, an erosion of the rights established under Article IV of the treaty.

The status quo solves prolif, but pushing a single reactor design causes backlash that jacks U.S. cred

Nader Elhefnawy 8, Professor of English at the University of Miami, writer on IR published in journals including International Security, Astropolitics, and Survival, Autumn 2008, "The Next Wave of Nuclear Proliferation," Parameters: The US Army War College Quarterly
It would be a mistake to focus excessively on any one track for ameliorating the
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current nuclear arsenals, are almost certain to continue operating their existing reactors.

No ENR spread—-and it won’t cause prolif if it does

Justin Alger 9, MA, The Norman Paterson School of international Affairs, Carleton University, 9/09, "From Nuclear Energy to the Bomb: The Proliferation Potential of New Nuclear Energy Programs," http://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/Nuclear_Energy_Futures%206.pdf
India and South Africa were able to develop indigenous reprocessing and enrichment capabilities with minimal
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one of these technologies states cannot produce the material for a nuclear weapon.

Plan causes massive IAEA overstretch—-only SMRs link—-turns prolif

Dr. Edwin Lyman 11, Senior Scientist, Global Security Program, Union of Concerned Scientists, July 14, 2011, Testimony Before the Energy and Water Development Subcommittee, Committee on Appropriations, U.S. Senate, "An Examination of the Safety and Economics of Light Water Small Modular Reactors," http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/nuclear_power/lyman-appropriations-subcom-7-14-11.pdf
 The distributed deployment of small reactors would also put great strains on existing licensing
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of SMRs around the world would be difficult, if feasible at all.

No rapid prolif—-dangerous states are terrible at proliferating

Jacques E.C. Hymans 12, Assistant Professor in the School of International Relations at the University of Southern California, 4/16/12, "North Korea’s Lessons for (Not) Building an Atomic Bomb," http://www.foreignaffairs.com/print/134657
The dismal failure of North Korea’s April 13 long-range missile test — it
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, as a struggling proliferator, North Korea has a lot of company.

DOD ADV

Status quo solves islanding—-the military figured out their advantage and fixed it

Michael Aimone 9-12, Director, Business Enterprise Integration, Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense (Installations and Environment), 9/12/12, Statement Before the House Committee on Homeland Security, Subcommittee on Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Protection and Security Technologies, http://homeland.house.gov/sites/homeland.house.gov/files/Testimony%20-%20Aimone.pdf
DoD’s facility energy strategy is also focused heavily on grid security in the name of
AND
, to Keesler Air Force Base in Mississippi, to support base recovery.   

Grid shutdown is just a nuisance—no impact

Douglas Birch 12, former foreign correspondent for the Associated Press and the Baltimore Sun who has written extensively on technology and public policy, "Forget Revolution," October 1, Foreign Policy, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/10/01/forget_revolution?page=full
But are cyber attacks really a clear and present danger to society’s critical life support
AND
the situation now. But this is not the end of the world."

U.S. primacy isn’t key to peace—-their data is flawed

Christopher Preble 10, director of Foreign Policy Studies at the CATO Institute, August 3, 2010, "U.S. Military Power: Preeminence for What Purpose?," online: http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/u-s-military-power-preeminence-for-what-purpose/-http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/u-s-military-power-preeminence-for-what-purpose/
Most in Washington still embraces the notion that America is, and forever will be
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States while the schlubs in fly-over country pick up the tab.

Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 7 | Opponent: Cornell RW | Judge: Phil Samuels

ELECTIONS OBAMA GOOD DA

Obama’s wining now

Felsenthal 10/5 Mark is a writer for Reuters. "Obama touts jobs report as he seeks to lift campaign," 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE88N13D20121005?feedType=RSS%26feedName=topNews%26rpc=71
A decline in unemployment to 7.8 percent in September, announced just more
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evidence that his policies are working," said Julian Zelizer of Princeton University.

====Support for wind angers voters in key swing states ====
Dlouhy 8/14 Jennifer is a writer at Chron.com. "Big Oil raises voice as election nears," 2012, http://www.chron.com/business/article/Big-Oil-raises-voice-as-election-nears-3788595.php
With less than three months until Election Day, the American Petroleum Institute is stepping
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from wind, making it one of the nation’s leaders in wind energy.

Romney decks US-Russia Relations –

Felton 12 Emmanuel Felton is a Toni Stable Fellow at the Columbia School of Journalism. "Mitt Romney Russia Quotes Signal Big Problems For Future US-Russian Relations," March, http://www.policymic.com/articles/6202/mitt-romney-russia-quotes-signal-big-problems-for-future-us-russian-relations
The importance of America’s alliance with Russia is highlighted by the very context of Obama
AND
, global security will continue to be undermined by an increasingly hostile Kremlin. 

WIND PIC

The United States Federal Government should remove restrictions to the development of solar energy projects on indigenous lands in the United States and lower antidumping tariffs on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells from the People’s Republic of China.

Solar energy reaching grid parity now—the tariff prevents global adoption of solar

Green 11, 12-19, Martin, executive research director at the Photovoltaics Centre of Excellence at the University of New South Wales in Australia, "A Solar Trade War Could Put Us All in the Dark", http://www.technologyreview.com/news/426392/a-solar-trade-war-could-put-us-all-in-the-dark/
The brewing solar trade war between the United States and China sullies what should be
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decades of international innovation and stall the global adoption of advanced solar technology.

Expanded wind projects turns the case – re-entrenches control over the Native population

Bosworth 10—Honors Projects Environmental Studies Department, Macalester College (Kai, Straws in the Wind: Race, Nature and Technoscience in Postcolonial South Dakotan Wind Power Development, http://digitalcommons.macalester.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1007%26context=envi_honors%26sei-redir=1%26referer=http%3A%2F%2Fscholar.google.com%2Fscholar%3Fstart%3D10%26q%3D%2522Technologies%2Bof%2BExistence%2522%26hl%3Den%26as_sdt%3D0%2C14~~%23search=%22Technologies%20Existence%22-http://digitalcommons.macalester.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1007%26context=envi_honors%26sei-redir=1%26referer=http%3A%2F%2Fscholar.google.com%2Fscholar%3Fstart%3D10%26q%3D%2522Technologies%2Bof%2BExistence%2522%26hl%3Den%26as_sdt%3D0%2C14)
Federal and state policies support large-scale and centralized wind power development. The
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of some new discourses of sovereignty and self-sufficiency (Corntassel  2008).

RARE EARTH DA

Rare Earth Mineral Demand is low – Downstream enterprises hesitant to enter into new projects

WantChinaTimes, 8/14/12, "Decreased demand hits China’s rare earth producers", http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?cid=1102%26MainCatID=11%26id=20120814000043
A wave of business closures is sweeping the rare earth industry in China, especially
AND
demand to offset the weak demand for rare earth minerals from overseas markets.

Plan causes disproportionate demand for Nd and Dy – they are key elements in the construction of wind turbines

Elisa Alonso et. Al, 2/3/12, postdoctoral research associate in the Materials Systems Laboratory at MIT, "Evaluating Rare Earth Element Availability: A Case with Revolutionary Demand from Clean Technologies", Environmental Science and Technology,
ABSTRACT: The future availability of rare earth elements (REEs) is of concern
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present REE needs in automotive and wind applications are representative of future needs.

China would respond to sharp demand spike by restricting exports and promoting domestic industry – causes downstream firm relocation from the US to China

Timothy J. Brennan and Joel Darmstadter et. Al.,2012, Senior fellows at Resources for the Future, "THE SUPPLY CHAIN AND INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION OF RARE EARTH MATERIALS: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE U.S. WIND ENERGY SECTOR", http://www.rff.org/RFF/Documents/RFF-Rpt-Shih%20etal%20RareEarthsUSWind.pdf
So far, it appears that, although China may have market power over REs
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could then obtain access to manufacturing knowledge from firms that relocate to China.

Easy access to the Rare Earth metals are key to heg – comprise a number of essential military applications

Adam Stone, 6/12/12, Staff Writer for Defense News, "CNAS: U.S. Reliance on Rare Earths Carries Risks", http://www.defensenews.com/article/20120612/DEFREG02/306120003/CNAS-U-S-Reliance-Rare-Earths-Carries-Risks
Thinking about national security risks, one’s mind does not often turn to such esoteric
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really be giving up critical functions among military uses if supply ran short."

U.S. preponderance of power deters conflict in every global hotspot from going nuclear—-offshore strategies fail

Steven Metz 12, Chairman of the Regional Strategy and Planning Department and Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute, January 30, 2012, "To Maintain U.S. Primacy, Standoff Power is not Enough," World Politics Review, online: http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11312/to-maintain-u-s-primacy-standoff-power-is-not-enough
Though the objective itself is admirable, the strategy behind it can prove to be
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to remain an effective global power, it must have potent land power.

STATES CP

Text: The 50 states and all relevant territories should all adopt Renewable Portfolio Standards equivalent to the state with the most stringent targets, with set-asides for wind power. The 50 states should adopt feed-in tariffs that incentivize wind power.

Feed-in tariffs solve wind development for natives

Gipe 12 (Paul, contributor to renewable energy world, "Native Americans Endorse Feed-in Tariffs for Oregon", 6/14, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2012/06/native-americans-endorse-feed-in-tariffs-for-oregon?cmpid=SolarNL-Thursday-June14-2012)
The Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians is encouraging Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber to include feed
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on Governor Kitzhaber to introduce a broad statewide feed-in tariff program.

RPS solves

Masterson 09 (Crystal, Third-year student, University of Oklahoma College of Law, "WIND-ENERGY VENTURES IN INDIAN COUNTRY: FASHIONING A FUNCTIONAL PARADIGM", 34 Am. Indian L. Rev. 317, Lexis)
While many governments have taken an "either/or" approach to feed-
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providing supplemental income with which to repay any loans acquired for project development.

CASE

Moral absolutism undermines political effectiveness and causes political paralysis

Jeffrey C. Isaac, James H. Rudy Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for the Study of Democracy and Public Life at Indiana University, Spring 2002, Dissent, Vol. 49, No. 2
As writers such as Niccolo Machiavelli, Max Weber, Reinhold Niebuhr, and Hannah
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not true believers. It promotes arrogance. And it undermines political effectiveness.

Some rights violations are inevitable – cost-benefit analysis is the only way to justify action to solve concrete harms

Cummiskey Associate Professor of Philosophy – Bates 1999 Gewirth ed. Boylan p. 134
The PGC’s (Principle of Generic Consistency’s) goal of securing the generic rights of
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agency. So once again we find no basis for limiting Gewirthian consequentialism.

Conflicting moral claims necessitate utilitarianism

Mulholland Professor of Philosophy – Newfoundland 1986 Journal of Philosophy v.83 i.6 p. 328
For many, the persuasiveness of utilitarianism as a moral theory lies in its power
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coherence and simplicity of the principle in explaining the morality of such cases.

Deontology collapses into util

Schuck 8 – PROFESSOR OF LAW AT YALE —- Peter H. Schuck, the Simeon E. Baldwin Professor of Law at Yale University, Fall 2008, "The Morality of Immigration Policy," San Diego Law Review, 45 San Diego L. Rev. 865, p. lexis
That said, I believe that any deontological claim in the realm of practical or
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ultimately rest on propositions about its actual effects in the real world. n5
~*869~  By adopting a consequentialist approach, I emphatically do not dismiss the
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consequences requires a theory of the good to ground the comparison. n7 

Nuclear war is genocide

Lippman 98 – Professor of Criminal Justice, Illinois; leading legal expert and author on war crimes, genocide, and the Nazi holocaust; international lawyer representing Chechenya in a World Court suit (Matthew, 15 Ariz. J. Int’l %26 Comp. Law 415)

In July 1996, the International Court of Justice issued an advisory opinion on the
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the attack will result in the mass extermination of a national group. 554

War preconditions genocide

Fettweis 3 – National Security Professor, US Naval War College (Christopher, War as catalyst, Journal of Genocide Research 5.2, p 234-6)

At the very least, the war made the Holocaust more likely, and easier
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hiding holocausts. That, however, is the subject for another essay. 

American ethnic policies produce a SUPER BANDWAGON of dissimilation and infighting in other states.

Kuran 1998 (Timur, prof of economics and Islamic thought and culture at USC, "Ethnic Dissimilation and Its International Diffusion" The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict, Princeton University Press, pg 36-37)
The second segment of the argument recognizes that motives to perform ethnically meaningful behaviors are
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minorities are likely to have an especially great impact on ethnic relations elsewhere.  

Secession model produces multiple scenarios for Global nuclear war

Shehadi 93 (Kama, Research Associate – International Institute for Strategic Studies, Ethnic Self-Determination and the Break-Up of States, p. 81-82)
This paper has argued that self-determination conflicts have direct adverse consequences on international
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is a real danger that regional conflicts will erupt over national minorities and borders

Tournament: Harvard | Round: 1 | Opponent: Mary Washington MM | Judge: Sarah Weiner
1nc—topicality

Financial incentives require the disbursement of public funds directly linked to encouraging energy production

Webb, 93 – lecturer in the Faculty of Law at the University of Ottawa (Kernaghan, "Thumbs, Fingers, and Pushing on String: Legal Accountability in the Use of Federal Financial Incentives", 31 Alta. L. Rev. 501 (1993) Hein Online) – italics in the original
In this paper, "financial incentives" are taken to mean disbursements 18 of
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In effect, these programs are assistance, but they are not incentives.

Export restrictions are not production restrictions

Shih 9 Wen-chen Shih is an associate professor of law in the Department of International Trade at National Chengchi University, Taiwan. "ARTICLE: Energy Security, GATT/WTO, and Regional Agreements" Natural Resources Journal Spring, 2009 Natural Resources Journal 49 Nat. Resources J. 433 lexis
Such an argument has been questioned by others. Broome cautions that a material distinction
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countries should not constitute quantitative restrictions that contravene Article XI:1. n97

Vote negative

Limits—-they turn the energy production topic into the energy trading topic—-doubles the topic and overstretches our research burden—-undermines preparedness for all debates

Ground—-export restrictions allow them to just change where energy goes as opposed to how much is produced which is the core link to all disads

 
1nc—elections da

Obama’s ahead but the race is close—-voters are paying attention which means the plan could cause a shift

Cooper 10/25 Michael is a writer at the New York Times’ Caucus blog. "Has Romney’s Rise in Polls Stopped?" 2012, http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/25/has-romneys-rise-in-polls-stopped/?gwh=20374120E0C2B79985262EFF8E8CD19D
A debate has been raging among polling analysts and commentators about whether Mitt Romney is
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have struggled in an environment where fewer people want to respond to questions.

Everyone hates the plan

Levi 12 Michael is a Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "A Strategy for U.S. Natural Gas Exports," June, http://www.hamiltonproject.org/files/downloads_and_links/06_exports_levi.pdf
But there is also great wariness in many quarters about the prospect of allowing exports
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concerns, particularly the desire to secure cheap energy inputs for their industries.

GOP victory would undo the reset and destroy Russia relations—-triggers prolif, European instability, and global conflict

Deyermond 10/1 Ruth Deyermond is Lecturer in War Studies in the Department of War Studies, King’s College London. "The Republican Challenge to Obama’s Russia Policy," Survival, Volume 54, Issue 5, 2012, Taylor and Francis
Implications of the divide In his 2008 analysis of the claims regarding a new Cold
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state needs to be reconsidered for the sake of American and international security.

US-Russia relations key to solve extinction

Allison 11 (Graham, 10/30, Director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, "10 reasons why Russia still matters," http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=161EF282-72F9-4D48-8B9C-C5B3396CA0E6)
That central point is that Russia matters a great deal to a U.S
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Tehran to joining China in preventing U.N. Security Council resolutions.

1nc—disad

Unlimited exports tank the manufacturing industry—key to competitiveness

Blitz 12 (George, Vice President of Energy and Climate Change at Dow Chemical Company, "Manufacturing Key to Natural Gas Value", 4/19, http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2012/04/what-should-us-policy-be-on-en.php~~%232198672)
While the nation struggles to find solutions to the current economic crisis, there has been a sharp focus on the country’s newly abundant supply of natural gas as a potential cure—-and rightly so. However, those that advocate unlimited natural gas exports are taking a short-sighted approach, missing the tremendous opportunity to leverage domestic natural gas to spur a manufacturing Renaissance in the U.S.
Already the prospect of advantaged and abundant U.S. gas has sparked domestic
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strengthens the economy well beyond what gas production and export alone can achieve.
Take the U.S. chemical industry for example. The American Chemistry Council estimates that a 25 percent increase in the production of shale gas and ethane (a shale gas derivative) would create more than 400,000 new jobs along the entire value chain, %2416 million in investment, more than %24130 billion in economic output and %244.4 billion in new tax revenues.
However, supply and demand must be balanced in a way that allows gas producers to maintain supply at stable, globally competitive prices that spur manufacturing growth and deliver reasonable costs for all consumers. Manufacturers may be the most price-sensitive users of natural gas and a rush to artificially create demand or constrain supplies would destroy the competitive advantage abundant, affordable domestic natural gas is creating for the U.S.
Policies that artificially accelerate demand, especially in-elastic demand, upset the natural supply-and-demand balance necessary to keep natural gas prices affordable for U.S. manufacturers. This includes unlimited exportation of natural gas.
Fair and free trade must be supported in a nationally prudent manner. A sound energy policy that promotes U.S. economic growth is needed for us to realize the tremendous opportunity domestic natural gas presents.
Alternatively, exporting amounts of natural gas that drive prices closer to the global price of crude oil will inhibit this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to restore U.S. manufacturing and miss a golden opportunity to create high-paying middle class jobs and bring back economic prosperity.

Solves great power war

Baru 2009 (Sanjaya is a Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School in Singapore Geopolitical Implications of the Current Global Financial Crisis, Strategic Analysis, Volume 33, Issue 2 March 2009 , pages 163 – 168)
Hence, economic policies and performance do have strategic consequences.2 In the modern
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they will do so once again in today’s America remains to be seen.

1nc—disad

US LNG exports cause a global transition from oil indexation to spot pricing

Hulbert 12 (Matthew Hulbert - Lead Analyst at European Energy Review, government consultant, Senior Research Fellow @ Netherlands Institute for International Relations, working on energy and political risk. Senior Energy Analyst at Datamonitor for global utilities.  "Why America Can Make or Break A New Global Gas World," 8/05/2012 http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewhulbert/2012/08/05/why-america-can-make-or-break-a-new-global-gas-world)
The same debate is raging in the US. Despite the phenomenal breakthroughs in American
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fundamentals. US LNG could be the straw that breaks oil indexation back.

Spot pricing causes short term volatility —- Russia floods the market to crowd out producers and engages in collusion to drive up future prices

Hulbert 12 (Matthew Hulbert - Lead Analyst at European Energy Review, government consultant, Senior Research Fellow @ Netherlands Institute for International Relations, working on energy and political risk. Senior Energy Analyst at Datamonitor for global utilities.  "Why America Can Make or Break A New Global Gas World," 8/05/2012 http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewhulbert/2012/08/05/why-america-can-make-or-break-a-new-global-gas-world)
But it’s not all bad news for Russia. The first point is that most
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needed to explore and exploit a potentially lucrative new world of gas benchmarks?
Much would depend on pricing pressures involved and how far convergence has got, but
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Qatar, but actually, flags up a huge opportunity for Russia here.
Instead of issuing empty threats to flood markets or decimate upstream investments, independent gas
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tonnes of LNG Shtokman and Sakhalin should hold, tells us as much.
Not only could Russia lean far heavier on Qatar, Australia, Algeria, West
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hoping the US delivers on its global gas potential. Ironic times indeed.

Causes Russian resurgence and collapses the global economy

Fang et al 12 (Songying Fang - Ph.D. Assistant Professor of Political Science Rice University. Amy Myers Jaffe - Fellow in Energy Studies JamesA. Baker III Institute for Public Policy Rice University. TedTemzelides, Ph.D., Prof of Economics. "New Alignments? The Geopolitics of Gas and Oil Cartels and the Changing Middle East," January 2012, http://www.bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-GasOilCartels-012312.pdf-http://www.bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-GasOilCartels-012312.pdf)
Ill this study, we investigate three related questions raised by the above observations.
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the international economy, and it could even lead to military conflict.2 

Russian resurgence causes global nuclear war

Blank 9 – Dr. Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March 2009, "Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?," online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf
Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia can then deter regional or intercontinental attacks
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wars might give them the victory or respite they need.169 Simultaneously,
The states of periphery and semiperiphery have far more opportunities for political maneuvering. Since
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, crises increase the possibilities of inadvertent or accidental wars involving WMD.171
Obviously nuclear proliferators or states that are expanding their nuclear arsenals like Russia can exercise
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egotism" will critically affect world politics. For, as Roberts observes,
But if they drift away from those efforts ~to bring about more cooperative security
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perhaps make wars of aggression on their neighbors or their own people.172
1nc—south china sea

China is de-escalating South China Sea tensions – promoting peaceful negotiations now

Ponnudurai 9-26 – Parameswaran Ponnudurai, September 26th, 2012, "China Seeks To Mend Fences In Sea Dispute – Analysis" www.eurasiareview.com/26092012-china-seeks-to-mend-fences-in-sea-dispute-analysis/
As Beijing flexes its muscles over its territorial dispute with Japan in the East China
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Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, which have competing claims with China.

====India does not need US exports – long term Qatar deals solve====
Bacci 12 – Alessandro Bacci, chartered journalist for the Association’s online journal DAO, March 23rd, 2012, "Qatar and India: A GasRelationship Due to Continue" www.daoonline.info/public/foto/BACCI - IKA - Qatar And IndiaMar 2012.pdf
Notwithstanding its already high dependency on Qatar’s gas, since last year India has been
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investment partnership to additional economic sectors other than the oil and gas sector.

No solvency —- India’s decision is political – not economic —- the plan cannot influence them

Daiss – 1AC Author – 9-12, East Asian energy correspondent for Energy Tribune, 9-12-12
(Tim, "The Sino Indian Vietnamese Triangle: Old Grudges, Hydrocarbons, And Geopolitical Gamesmanship Part Two ," 9-12-12, http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm/11658/The-Sino-Indian-Vietnamese-Triangle—Old-Grudges-Hydrocarbons—And-Geopolitical-Gamesmanship-Part-Two, accessed 9-17-12) PM
Dr. Zha Daojiong, a professor at the School of International Studies, at
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recourse other than continuing to object and protest Indian behavior," Zha said.

No war – Vietnam has multilateral ties that check China – their author

Daiss 9-12 – Tim Daiss, September 12th, 2012, "The Sino Indian Vietnamese Triangle: Old Grudges, Hydrocarbons, And Geopolitical Gamesmanship Part Two " www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm/11658/The-Sino-Indian-Vietnamese-Triangle—Old-Grudges-Hydrocarbons—And-Geopolitical-Gamesmanship-Part-Two-http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm/11658/The-Sino-Indian-Vietnamese-Triangle~-~-Old-Grudges-Hydrocarbons~-~-And-Geopolitical-Gamesmanship-Part-Two
He added that India’s initiative toward Vietnam’s offshore oil and gas development will strengthen Vietnam’s
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whole range of economic ties with China, the maritime boundary dispute notwithstanding."

The US needs to stay out of the conflict – ensures multilateral solutions to energy competition – their author

Rogers 9-12 – Will Rogers, Guest blogger, Christian Science Monitor, September 12, 2012, "Tensions mount in South China Sea. Here’s how to ease them. " www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2012/0912/Tensions-mount-in-South-China-Sea.-Here-s-how-to-ease-them-http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2012/0912/Tensions-mount-in-South-China-Sea.-Here-s-how-to-ease-them
The United States needs to strike a balance between reassuring its allies and partners in
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America playing too strong a role. It is a delicate balancing act.

No escalation

Creehan ’12 – Senior Editor of the SAIS Review of International Affairs (Sean, "Assessing the Risks of Conflict in the
South China Sea," Winter/Spring, SAIS Review, Vol. 32, No. 1)
Regarding Secretary Clinton’s first requirement, the risk of actual closure of the South China
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conflict are so great that significant changes to the status quo are unlikely.
1nc—warming

Exporting LNG increases emissions and causes catastrophic warming and extinction

Romm 12 (Joe Romm – PhD from MIT, Fellow at American Progress, editor of Climate Progress, previously assistant secretary of energy for energy efficiency and renewable energy. "Exporting Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Is Bad For The Climate," Jun 18, 2012 http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/06/18/500954/exporting-liquefied-natural-gas-lng-is-bad-for-the-climate/)
The surge in U.S. production of shale gas is creating a surge in permit requests to build liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals. That’s because the glut of U.S. gas has dropped domestic prices sharply below global price levels.
LNG Value ChainBut if avoiding catastrophic climate change is your goal, then spending huge sums on even conventional natural gas infrastructure is not the answer, as a recent International Energy Agency report made clear:
    The specific emissions from a gas-fired power plant will be higher than average global CO2 intensity in electricity generation by 2025, raising questions around the long-term viability of some gas infrastructure investment if climate change objectives are to be met.
And liquefying natural gas is an energy intensive and leaky process. When you factor in shipping overseas, you get an energy penalty of 20% or more. The extra greenhouse gas emissions can equal 30% or more of combustion emissions, according to a 2009 Reference Report by the Joint Research Centreof the European Commission, Liquefied Natural Gas for Europe – Some Important Issues for Consideration.
Such extra emissions all but eliminate whatever small, short-term benefit there might be of building billion-dollar export terminals and other LNG infrastructure, which in any case will last many decades, long after the electric grid will not benefit from replacing coal with gas.
Furthermore, the U.S. Energy Information Administration concluded in a 2012 report on natural gas exports done for DOE’s Office of Fossil Energy that such exports would also increase domestic greenhouse gas emissions:
    ~W~hen also accounting for emissions related to natural gas used in the liquefaction process, additional exports increase CO2 levels under all cases and export scenarios, particularly in the earlier years of the projection period.
Asserting any net benefit for the importer requires assuming the new gas replaces only coal — and isn’t used for, say, natural gas vehicles, which are worse for the climate or that it doesn’t replace new renewables.  If even a modest fraction of the imported LNG displaces renewables, it renders the entire expenditure for LNG counterproductive from day one.
Remember, a major new 2012 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences study on
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over Colorado found 4% methane leakage, more than double industry claims.
A different 2012 study by climatologist Ken Caldeira and tech guru Nathan Myhrvold finds basically no benefit in the switch whatsoever — see You Can’t Slow Projected Warming With Gas, You Need ’Rapid and Massive Deployment’ of Zero-Carbon Power.
So spending vast sums of money to export natural gas from this country is a
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to those markets, as is well known in the climate policy arena.
BOTTOM LINE: Investing billions of dollars in new shale gas infrastructure for domestic use
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Terra incognita — a planet of amplifying feedbacks and multiple simultaneous catastrophic impacts.

no bridge—natural gas kills the transition

Jones 12 (Christopher F. Jones - Ph.D, Ciriacy-Wantrup Fellow at Berkeley, previously fellow @ Harvard U. Center for the Environment. 8/29/12, " Natural Gas: Bridge or Dead End? ," Huffington Post, www.huffingtonpost.com/christopher-f-jones/bridge-or-dead-end_b_1837015.html?utm_hp_ref=energy-http://www.huffingtonpost.com/christopher-f-jones/bridge-or-dead-end_b_1837015.html?utm_hp_ref=energy)
Critics of natural gas have typically focused on issues of pollution rather than infrastructure.
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we get on the bridge, it will be hard to get off.

AT Causes global switch away from coal

Matthews 12(Nathan Matthews - Associate Attorney, Sierra Club Environmental Law Program. "SIERRA CLUB’S MOTION TO INTERVENE OUT OF TIME, PROTEST, AND COMMENTS,"  4/18/12, http://content.sierraclub.org/sites/default/files/documents/SC%20Mtn%20to%20Intervene%204-18-12.pdf)
The EIA Study and Recent Lifecycle Analyses Demonstrate that The Environmental Benefits DOE/FE’s
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those of natural gas generally, and into the range of coal emissions.
This study understates the emissions of LNG, because it predates the recent boom in unconventional gas sources and assumes gas will come from conventional extraction.111 The study also predates EPA’s recent action to raise emissions estimates from conventional gas production. Because unconventional gas already has higher emissions than conventional gas, liquefied unconventional gas will have higher emissions still, further erasing any daylight between LNG and other fossil fuel emissions.
Numerous studies have attempted to calculate just how much the upstream methane emissions from conventional
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gas consumption, and does not include the additional emissions associated with LNG.

Even global switching from coal wouldn’t solve catastrophic warming

Plumer 12 (Brad Plumer - reporter focusing on energy and environmental issues. He was previously an associate editor at The New Republic. August 20, 2012 "Can natural gas help tackle global warming? A primer."  Washinton Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/08/20/can-natural-gas-really-help-tackle-global-warming-heres-everything-you-need-to-know/-http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/08/20/can-natural-gas-really-help-tackle-global-warming-heres-everything-you-need-to-know/)
Yet some environmentalists have argued that the accolades for natural gas are premature. True
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we’d likely still reach that point soon (albeit at a slower pace).

No positive feedbacks—-this takes out 100% of the impact to warming

Fritz Vahrenholt 12, Honorary Professor of chemistry at the University of Hamburg, former Umweltsenator in the German Ministry for Environment, Scientific Reviewer for the 2010 IPCC, June 18, 2012, "Global warming: second thoughts of an environmentalist," The Telegraph, online: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/9338939/Global-warming-second-thoughts-of-an-environmentalist.html
Furthermore, what is little known is that CO2 also requires a strong amplifier if
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of up to 4.5°C for a doubling of CO2.
In the last 10 years the solar magnetic field dropped to one of its lowest
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more than 1°C, significantly less than proposed by the IPCC.
Climate catastrophe would have been called off and the fear of a dangerously overheated planet would go down in history as a classic science error. Rather than being largely settled, there are more and more open climate questions which need to be addressed in an impartial and open-minded way.

Tournament: Harvard | Round: 1 | Opponent: Mary Washington MM | Judge: Sarah Weiner
WARMING ADV

Levi concludes neg – LNG Exports small impact on CO2 emissions – even advocates agree

Levi 12 (Michael Levi - senior fellow for energy and the environment at Council on Foreign Relations, director of CFR Program on Energy Security and Climate Change. 8/17/12, CFR, "Why Allowing Natural Gas exports is probably good for climate change," http://blogs.cfr.org/levi/2012/08/17/why-allowing-natural-gas-exports-is-probably-good-for-climate-change/-http://blogs.cfr.org/levi/2012/08/17/why-allowing-natural-gas-exports-is-probably-good-for-climate-change/)
First one overarching point: The consequences of LNG exports for climate change will almost
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for the U.S. economy and its standing in the world.

Exporting LNG increases warming —- any tradeoffs are overcome by leakage, and the energy intensive liquefying

Romm 12 (Joe Romm – PhD from MIT, Fellow at American Progress, editor of Climate Progress, previously assistant secretary of energy for energy efficiency and renewable energy. "Exporting Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Is Still Bad For The Climate — And A Very Poor Long-Term Investment," August 16, 2012, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/16/699601/exporting-liquefied-natural-gas-lng-bad-for-climate-poor-long-term-investment/)
The surge in U.S. production of shale gas is creating a surge
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Terra incognita — a planet of amplifying feedbacks and multiple simultaneous catastrophic impacts.

Exports net increase emissions

EIA 12 (Energy Information Administration, "Effect of Increased Natural Gas Exports on Domestic Energy Markets as requested by the Office of Fossil Energy," January 2012, www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/fe/pdf/fe_lng.pdf-http://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/fe/pdf/fe_lng.pdf)
While lower domestic natural gas deliveries resulting from added exports reduce natural gas related CO2
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cases and scenarios, with the change relative to the associated baseline case.

US exports cause warming—-liquification causes methane leaks

Bloomberg 12 The Gas Is Always Greener When It Leaks Less Jun 13www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-13/the-gas-is-always-greener-when-it-leaks-less.html
A new escape route for methane will be opened as the U.S. begins exporting some of its natural-gas bounty. (With natural- gas prices at %249 per million BTU and higher in Europe and %2417 in Asia, a new facility in Louisiana to liquefy gas for export is on the drawing board.) Methane can escape during liquefaction, shipping and regasification at the receiving end. All these leaks, too, have to be measured.

Methane  CO2
Frongillo 12 Dominic Frongillo - deputy town supervisor of Caroline, Tompkins County, and founder of Elected Officials to Protect New York , "Wrong Time to Push Fracking,"August 15, 2012  http://www.timesunion.com/opinion/article/Wrong-time-to-push-fracking-3788647.php-http://www.timesunion.com/opinion/article/Wrong-time-to-push-fracking-3788647.php)
Why should this ring alarm bells for Cuomo and every New Yorker?
Far from being a climate solution, fracking may be a disaster. Research indicates the methane leakage may mean that fracking is worse for the climate than coal and oil, particularly in the short term.
Gas from fracking is mostly methane, a dangerous greenhouse gas that is up to 105 times more powerful at trapping heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide over 20 years. A recent United Nations Environment Program report shows that it is more urgent to reduce methane than CO2, given that methane is so much more powerful, has quicker climate impacts, and will trigger runaway climate change sooner.
In February, the journal Nature reported on one of the first studies to look at methane emissions from fracking, a Colorado study led by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The study found 4 percent of gas drilled in fracking is venting directly into the atmosphere — even greater than the high-end estimate of the Cornell study and twice what was reported by the industry.
This is cause for grave concern. According to the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we must reduce our greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous tipping points for the climate. Failing to do so will cause catastrophic impacts, far worse than the extreme heat and droughts this summer.
It may be that preventing hydraulic fracturing is crucial to stop a large new source of greenhouse gas emissions in New York. Fracking would release large amounts of methane that is now safety underground — cooking the planet further at the time when we most need to reduce methane emissions.
In Tompkins County, our Planning Department estimates that one well pad will release more climate pollution over its operational life than all of our county’s 100,000 residents do in one year. Fracking may overwhelm and undermine the work of our governments, businesses, and institutions across the state to lessen our impact on the global climate.
New York State’s Climate Action Plan interim report contains ambitious and necessary strategies to cut greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050. How would fracking in New York affect our ability to meet these targets?

Most qualified studies prove

IEA 12 International Energy Agency - World Energy Outlook Special Report on Unconventional Gas, "Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas," May 29, 2012, http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2012/goldenrules/WEO2012_GoldenRulesReport.pdf)
The production of unconventional gas also contributes to the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and
AND
greater use of gas instead of more carbon-intensive coal and oil.
In addition to the smaller recoverable hydrocarbon content per unit of land, unconventional developments
AND
and none expected). This tends to exacerbate the problem of public acceptance.

Triggers Ozone which increases warming

Matthews 12Nathan Matthews - Associate Attorney, Sierra Club Environmental Law Program. "SIERRA CLUB’S MOTION TO INTERVENE OUT OF TIME, PROTEST, AND COMMENTS,"  4/18/12, http://content.sierraclub.org/sites/default/files/documents/SC%20Mtn%20to%20Intervene%204-18-12.pdf)
Methane also reacts in the atmosphere to form ozone.29 As we discuss below
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downwind states will experience significant NOx pollution if production increases without appropriate controls.

Their internal link can’t possibly affect emissions enough to solve warming

Patrick J. Michaels 7, former program chair for the Committee on Applied Climatology of the American Meteorological Society, was a research professor of Environmental Sciences at University of Virginia for thirty years, was a contributing author and is a reviewer of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, February 2, 2007, "Live with Climate Change," online: http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/live-climate-change-http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/live-climate-change
However, actually "doing something" about warming is a daunting endeavor. The journal Geophysical Research Letters estimated in 1997 that if every nation on Earth lived up to the United Nations’ Kyoto Protocol on global warming, it would prevent no more than 0.126 degrees F of warming every 50 years. Global temperature varies by more than that from year to year, so that’s not even enough to measure. Climatically, Kyoto would do nothing.
In the past four years, the Senate has voted twice against "cap-and-trade" legislation — sponsored by New Mexico senators Jeff Bingaman, a Democrat, and Pete Domenici, a Republican — that would set quotas on carbon emissions and let companies buy and sell them. If adopted, their cap-and-trade law would reduce emissions by less than the Kyoto Protocol specifies. In other words, the Senate has been loath to even adopt something that does less than nothing.
The stark reality is that if we really want to alter the warming trajectory of the planet significantly, we have to cut emissions by an extremely large amount, and — a truth that everyone must know — we simply do not have the technology to do so. We would fritter away billions in precious investment capital in a futile attempt to curtail warming.

China alt cause

Yvonne Chan 9 in Hong Kong, BusinessGreen, 9/17/09, China’s rapid growth imperils global climate change goal, says study, http://www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2249644/china-rapid-growth-imperils
China’s booming economic growth imperils a global target to limit global warming to two degrees, according to a major new report from an influential government think-tank.
Released yesterday by the Energy Research Institute, China’s Low Carbon Development Pathways by 2050 says that even if the nation were to embark on an aggressive strategy to cut greenhouse gas emissions, halting CO2 growth would be difficult given the country’s current stage of rapid economic development.
"There is a huge number of cities to be built," study co-author He Jiankun told reporters. "They will consume a large amount of steel and cement. This means that emissions will not be reduced for some time."
The problem with the global target, according to the report, was that the two-degree limit – which was formally adopted by G8 nations in July – does not make adequate concessions for the industrialisation of developing countries.
The report said that in order to even get close to the target, it was up to wealthy nations to make carbon emission cuts of at least 90 per cent on 1990 levels by 2050. Otherwise, global temperatures will rise between 2.8 and 3.2 degrees above the pre-industrial average, estimated the report, which was conducted over a two-year period and had involved 10 independent institutes, including WWF and the US-based Energy Foundation.

Positive feedbacks aren’t physically possible—-best data overwhelmingly goes our way

William M. Gray 12, Professor Emeritus, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, May 23, 2012, "The Physical Flaws of the Global Warming Theory and Deep Ocean Circulation Changes as the Primary Climate Driver," online: http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/gray2012.pdf
AGW theory fails because the basic physics behind it is flawed. Its primary scientific
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’positive water-vapor feedback loop’. The argument goes like this:  
Models assume that as CO2 increases to doubling that this causes the atmosphere to warm
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1°C warming needed to balance 3.7 Wm -2.
This strong additional water vapor gain and resulting 2°C temperature increase to obtain
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of the deep penetrating cumulonimbus (Cb) convective updrafts (Figure 8).   
This strong positive water vapor feedback loop which the GCMs rely so heavily on for
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and proceed on with their erroneous GCM simulations and dire future warming predictions.  

They have to win positive feedbacks to win an impact—-CO2’s not enough on its own—-and most recent data suggests no feedbacks

Fritz Vahrenholt 12, Honorary Professor of chemistry at the University of Hamburg, former Umweltsenator in the German Ministry for Environment, Scientific Reviewer for the 2010 IPCC, February 8, 2012, interviewed by Welt Online, a German newspaper, online: http://thegwpf.org/international-news/4932-the-cold-sun-why-the-climate-catastrophe-wont-happen.html
Welt Online: What are the core substantive findings that have prompted your changing of position?
Vahrenholt: I was previously unaware of the fact that CO2 is a greenhouse gas
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that by the year 2020, the world will plunge into chaos.’
Welt Online: So you do not deny that CO2 contributes to global warming?
Vahrenholt: It has undoubtedly made a contribution, but to a very much lower
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increased, but also the radiation and the magnetic field of the sun.
I cannot say exactly whether the contribution of CO2 to global warming makes up 40, 50 or 60 percent. However, both factors play a role, and the influence of the sun is probably even a little stronger than that of CO2.
Welt Online: How do arrive at this estimate?
Vahrenholt: We have experienced a warming of 0.8 degrees Celsius since the end of the Little Ice Age. This is primarily due to the large millennial climate cycle in which the Earth warms in each of the first 200 years of the cycle. Between 1970 and 2000 there is a sharp increase in the average temperature, but the same rate of increase was also observed between 1910 and 1940 and between 1860 and 1880.
This is nothing extraodinary. If you look closely, you can see that this
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The Atlantic Decadal Oscillation is also in decline, a little bit delayed.
A part of the warming is thus due to natural effects. The decisive shortcoming
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up some of its former role as the key driver of global warming.
We note that global temperatures have plateaued for the last twelve years. The explanations of the climatologists are not enough to explain why there is a pause. The Pacific and Atlantic Oscillations are still not taken into account in their models.