Tournament: UNI | Round: 2 | Opponent: Michigan | Judge: 

Advantage 1: Trade

Recent US anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese Solar cell imports threaten to start an energy trade war

Rex-Kiss 8/17-12, Endre, green technology advocate and freelance copywriter in topics of sustainability and social media, “Are solar panels about to start a new trade war between China and the West?”, http://www.earthtimes.org/green-blogs/green-living/solar-panel-trade-war-china-west-17-Aug-12/

Tensions are always running high … well as business.

Solar barriers spillover internationally and across industries—destroys the economy and causes a new escalating trade war

Tucker 8/27/12, William, work has appeared in Harper’s, the Atlantic Monthly, the American Spectator, the Weekly Standard, National Review, Reason, the New Republic, Reader’s Digest, the Wall Street Journal, and many other publications, “Let’s Just Admit Solar Needs Help and Avoid Trade War”, http://www.nucleartownhall.com/blog/william-tucker-let%E2%80%99s-just-admit-solar-needs-help-and-avoid-trade-war/

Although the newspapers haven’t been … clean-and-green solar power.

The tariff makes Chinese reciprocation and global protectionism inevitable

Beebe 12, 4-28, Andrew, chief commercial officer of Suntech, “Inside a U.S.-China Solar Trade War”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303404704577309583348171396.html

The U.S. Department of Commerce …energy and environmental crisis.

An escalated U.S. China trade war results in economic conflicts and devastating protectionism

Wang and Li 11 (Jianhua and Yunlu—Xinhua news agency, citing Ni Feng, Vice President of the Institute of American Studies underthe Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Zhao Jinping, vice director of the Foreign Economic Department of the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council “China-US trade war no good for anyone”, October 13, 2011. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90780/7616581.html

A trade war between the United … in some sensitive regions.

Extinction

Auslin, 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)

What do these trends mean … coalesce into a big bang.

International protectionism triggers resource power wars and terrorism that escalates to nuclear war

Panzner 8—25-year veteran of the markets who has worked for for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and J.P. Morgan Chase. New York Institute of Finance faculty member and a graduate of Columbia University. (Michael, Financial Armageddon, 136-8)

Continuing calls for curbs on … the beginnings of a new world war.

Additionally, a US-China trade war independently escalates to military conflict

Landy 7 [Ben Landy, Director of Research and Strategy at the Atlantic Media Company, publisher of the Atlantic Monthly, National Journal, and Government Executive magazines.   Landy served in various research and project management positions at the Brookings Institution and Center for Strategic and International Studies, two leading public policy think tanks in Washington, D.C.  Ben holds a bachelor of arts degree from Yale University. April 3, 2007, http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/#comments,)

The greatest threat for … budgets and anti-satellite tests.

Nuclear world war 3

Hunkovic 9 – American Military University [Lee J, 2009, “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America”, http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf]

A war between China… be considered in this study.

Most recent studies provide a direct connection between poor economic relations and military conflict

Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215

Less intuitive is how periods … considered ancillary to those views.

Reciprocation is directly tied to US tariffs and will crush the polysilicon and semiconductor industries

Wesoff 12 Eric, Senior Analyst, Greentech Media, 7/20, “China Retaliates in Solar Trade War” http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/china-retaliates-in-solar-trade-war/

But the impact of … companies lags American manufacturers.”

Polysilicon key to semiconductor industries – US companies that produce the best silicon would be hit by China’s retaliation

Koncept Analytics 12 Market Research Companies, Jan, “Global Polysilicon Market Report: 2011 Edition”  http://www.researchmoz.us/global-polysilicon-market-report-2011-edition-report.html

Polysilicon has a major … of the market.

Semiconductor industry key to hegemony

Harada 10 Colonel Lawrence K., United States Army Reserve, “Semiconductor Technology and U.S. National Security”, U.S. Army War College Research Paper, 4/21, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA526581 andLocation=U2anddoc=GetTRDoc.pdf

Semiconductor technologies that … U.S. semiconductor industry.

Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction

Thomas P.M. Barnett 11 Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis and Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads

It is worth first examining the … the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

Heg solves war – other countries can’t fill in and a transition to multipolarity causes conflict

Kagan, 12 — senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution (Robert, “Why the World Needs America”, The Wall Street Journal, 2/11/2012, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203646004577213262856669448.html)

History shows that world orders, … before the American order came into being.]

Removing the tariff solves – market forces will correct any “dumping”

Gallaghers 12, 5-22, Kelly and Kevin, Kelly Sims Gallagher is associate professor of energy and environmental policy at The Fletcher School, Tufts University. Kevin P. Gallagher is associate professor of international relations at Boston University, “Guest post: Blinded by the (solar) light”, http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/05/22/guest-post-blinded-by-the-solar-light/?catid=491andSID=google#axzz1vhhMeBo3

The Obama Administration’s preliminary decision … its part to correct market distortions too.

Advantage 2: Solar Industry

Scenario 1 is Blackouts

Solar tariffs will destroy the installation industry which shatters the overall solar market

Pierobon 12, 2-29, James, former Chief Energy Writer and Political Correspondent at the Houston Chronicle , “the case against a tariff on imported Chinese solar panels”, http://theenergycollective.com/jimpierobon/77861/guest-opinion-jigar-shah-makes-case-against-tariff-imported-chinese-solar-panels

Last October the US subsidiary of … jobs, prosperity and the environment.”

The tariff halts US solar transition by preventing cost-competitiveness

Jabusch 5/18/12 [Garvin Jabusch, cofounder and chief investment officer of Green Alpha Advisors and co-manager of the Green Alpha Next Economy Index. Jabusch was previously Director of Forward Sustainable Investments, a business unit of Forward Management, and Vice President, Strategic Services at Morgan Stanley. “Tariffs on Chinese Solar Are Bad for Us All,” http://sierraclub.typepad.com/gaa/2012/05/tariffs-on-chinese-solar-are-bad-for-us-all.html]

The United States Department of Commerce … solar business to Chinese firms.

Heat waves are already threatening prolonged blackouts in US cities – these will only get more frequent and more intense

Stone 8/8/12 [Brian Stone, Assistant Professor in the City and Regional Planning Program at the Georgia Institute of Technology, “Urban Heat Islands and Climate Change: Planning for Extreme Heat in Cities,” http://www.epa.gov/hiri/resources/transcripts/8_aug_2012-webcasttranscript-stone.pdf]

Most critical is your logical infrastructure … cities is certainly increasing.

Bioterror attack coming by 2013

Fox News 8 (Fox News, “Nuclear or Bioterror Attack on U.S. Likely by 2013, Panel Warns”, 12-2-08, http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,459927,00.html)

Terrorists are likely to attack … in Pakistan," the report states.

An unchecked bioterror attack causes extinction

Steinbruner, 97 — Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution (John, Foreign Policy, 12/22, p. nexis)

More than 70 years later, revulsion … necessarily its outer limit.  

Minimizing death toll key—large casualties ensure retaliation and escalation to nuclear war.

Conley 3 [Lt Col Harry W. is chief of the Systems Analysis Branch, Directorate of Requirements, Headquarters Air Combat Command (ACC), Langley AFB, Virginia. Air and Space Power Journal) http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj03/spr03/conley.html]

The number … promises had been made.”48

Blackouts undermine bioterror response and disease containment efforts that uniquely minimize mortality rates

Kelly and Osterholm 08 [Nicholas S. Kelley, Research assistant with The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy(CIDRAP) Business Source and a doctoral student in the Divison of Environmental Health Sciences at the University of Minnesota's School of Public Health, and Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, director of the NIH‐supported Center of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance within CIDRAP, a professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, University of Minnesota. Written in their report “Pandemic Influenza, Electricity, and the Coal Supply Chain” http://www.sovrn.com/PDF/pubs_CIDRAP_Coal_Report.pdf]

When one considers public health preparedness … the infrastructure occurs.

Unchecked disease spread independently causes extinction

Yu 9 — Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Science (Victoria, Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate, 22 May 2009, http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate)

A pandemic will kill … human-viable strain (10).

Expanded solar energy makes heat wave blackouts impossible

Perez et al 11 [Richard Perez, Research Professor, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, SUNY; Ken Zweibel, director of the GW Solar Institute at George Washington University; Thomas Hoff,  Founder of Clean Power Research and President of its Research and Consulting Group; “Solar power generation in the US: Too expensive, or a bargain?” Energy Policy Volume 39, Issue 11, November 2011, Pages 7290–7297]

Solar generators, distributed PV … nearly 375 GW in the US.

Scenario 2 is Price Spikes

Natural gas prices are low but future volatility is inevitable

Real Clear Energy 5/14/12 [Real Clear Energy Editors, “Natural Gas Prices Have Become More Volatile,” http://www.realclearenergy.org/charticles/2012/05/14/the_2000s_were_a_volatile_decade_for_natural_gas_prices.html]

It is easy to forget how … changes become more likely.

Price volatility wrecks the fertilizer industry

IECA 3 [Industrial Energy Consumers of America, nonprofit organization created to promote the interests of manufacturing companies for which the availability, use and cost of energy, power or feedstock play a significant role in their ability to compete, July 22 2003, “IMPACT OF THE U.S. NATURAL GAS CRISIS ON THE NORTH AMERICAN NITROGEN FERTILIZER INDUSTRY,” http://www.ieca-us.com/wp-content/uploads/072203Fertilizerbriefing.pdf]

High natural gas … balance for natural gas.

Food supply is on the brink now—the fertilizer industry is key to prevent a crisis

FI 9 [Fertilizer Institute, Trade Group representing the fertilizer industry, “The U.S. Fertilizer Industry and Climate Change Policy,” April 2 2009, http://www.kochfertilizer.com/pdf/TFI2009ClimateChange.pdf]

Fertilizer nutrients – nitrogen … from a full-scale food crisis.

Escalating food instability causes extinction—US production is key

Lugar 2k | Chairman of the Senator Foreign Relations Committee and Member/Former Chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee (Richard, a US Senator from Indiana, is Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and a member and former chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee. “calls for a new green revolution to combat global warming and reduce world instability,” pg online @ http://www.unep.org/OurPlanet/imgversn/143/lugar.html)

In a world confronted by … and the health of our planet.

Affordable solar power acts as a hedge against natural gas price spikes – ensures stability for industry

Powerfin Partners 11 [Powerfin Partners is a manager of institutional funds for solar projects in North America, with meaningful experience in energy capital markets, legal and regulatory matters, and renewable engineering, “Why the Solar Industry Lacks Pricing Power,” December 20, 2011, http://www.powerfinpartners.com/new_site/pdf/Why%20the%20Solar%20Industry%20Lacks%20Pricing%20Power%20122011.pdf]

While myriad uncertainties surround the … asset like solar.

Removing the tariff increases access to Chinese PV modules which are key to solar expansion

Berkman et al 12 [Dr. Mark P. Berkman, Ph.D. in Public Policy Analysis, expert in applied microeconomics and principal at the Brattle Group; Dr. Lisa J. Cameron, Ph.D. in Economics and Senior Consultant for the Brattle Group; Judy Chang, economist with expertise in the analysis of electricity power markets and principal at the Brattle Group; “The Employment Impacts of Proposed Tariffs on Chinese Manufactured Photovoltaic Cells and Modules,” January 30 2012, http://coalition4affordablesolar.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/TBG_Solar-Trade-Impact-Report.pdf]

Average module prices in … on the price of utility systems.

Plan text:

The United States federal government should lower antidumping tariffs on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells from the People’s Republic of China.

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
Plan Text 

The United States federal government should lower antidumping tariffs on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells from the People’s Republic of China.

1AC Trade 

Contention 1 is trade

Recent US anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese Solar cell imports threaten to start an energy trade war

Rex-Kiss 8/17-12, Endre, green technology advocate and freelance copywriter in topics of sustainability and social media, "Are solar panels about to start a new trade war between China and the West?", http://www.earthtimes.org/green-blogs/green-living/solar-panel-trade-war-china-west-17-Aug-12/-http://www.earthtimes.org/green-blogs/green-living/solar-panel-trade-war-china-west-17-Aug-12/
Tensions are always running high between Chinese and western manufacturers, but it seems those
AND
turns volatile it will be bad for the environment as well as business.

Tensions are on the brink as the US is close to reaching a decision

Cardwell 10/3/12 Diane, New York Times, "A Tug of War over solar tariffs" http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/03/a-tug-of-war-over-solar-tariffs/
The United States trade case against Chinese manufacturers of solar panels took a step toward
AND
brink of bankruptcy, because of generous support from state-owned banks.

Solar barriers spillover internationally and across industries—destroys the economy and causes a new escalating trade war

Tucker 8/27/12, William, work has appeared in Harper’s, the Atlantic Monthly, the American Spectator, the Weekly Standard, National Review, Reason, the New Republic, Reader’s Digest, the Wall Street Journal, and many other publications, "Let’s Just Admit Solar Needs Help and Avoid Trade War", http://www.nucleartownhall.com/blog/william-tucker-let%E2%80%99s-just-admit-solar-needs-help-and-avoid-trade-war/-http://www.nucleartownhall.com/blog/william-tucker-let%E2%80%99s-just-admit-solar-needs-help-and-avoid-trade-war/
Although the newspapers haven’t been paying much attention lately, the United States and China
AND
this will make for good old clean-and-green solar power.

The tariff makes Chinese reciprocation and global protectionism inevitable

Beebe 12, 4-28, Andrew, chief commercial officer of Suntech, "Inside a U.S.-China Solar Trade War", http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303404704577309583348171396.html
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a ruling last week to raise
AND
solar-industry growth and to solve our planet’s energy and environmental crisis.

An escalated U.S. China trade war results in economic conflicts and devastating protectionism

Wang and Li 11 (Jianhua and Yunlu—Xinhua news agency, citing Ni Feng, Vice President of the Institute of American Studies underthe Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Zhao Jinping, vice director of the Foreign Economic Department of the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council "China-US trade war no good for anyone", October 13, 2011. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90780/7616581.html
A trade war between the United States and China, each of which is the
AND
and will even lead to political and military confrontations in some sensitive regions. 

Economic crisis independently causes nuclear war

Green and Schrage 9 ~Michael J Green is Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Associate Professor at Georgetown University. Steven P Schrage is the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business and a former senior official with the US Trade Representative’s Office, State Department and Ways %26 Means Committee, "It’s not just the economy,"March 26 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html~~
Facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, analysts at the World Bank
AND
demonstration effect of liberal norms we are urging China to embrace at home.  

International protectionism triggers resource power wars and terrorism that escalates to nuclear war

Panzner 8—25-year veteran of the markets who has worked for for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and J.P. Morgan Chase. New York Institute of Finance faculty member and a graduate of Columbia University. (Michael, Financial Armageddon, 136-8)
Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of finance and trade will inspire the United
AND
between Muslims and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.

Additionally, a US-China trade war independently escalates to military conflict

Landy 7 ~Ben Landy, Director of Research and Strategy at the Atlantic Media Company, publisher of the Atlantic Monthly, National Journal, and Government Executive magazines.   Landy served in various research and project management positions at the Brookings Institution and Center for Strategic and International Studies, two leading public policy think tanks in Washington, D.C.  Ben holds a bachelor of arts degree from Yale University. April 3, 2007, http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/~~%23comments-http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/,)
The greatest threat for the 21st century is that these economic flare-ups between
AND
–far more than increases in military budgets and anti-satellite tests.

Nuclear world war 3

Hunkovic 9 – American Military University ~Lee J, 2009, "The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America", http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf~~
A war between China, Taiwan and the United States has the potential to escalate
AND
outcome, therefore, other countries will not be considered in this study.

Most recent studies provide a direct connection between poor economic relations and military conflict

Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, "Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises," in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict
AND
such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.

Removing the tariff solves – market forces will correct any "dumping"

Gallaghers 12, 5-22, Kelly and Kevin, Kelly Sims Gallagher is associate professor of energy and environmental policy at The Fletcher School, Tufts University. Kevin P. Gallagher is associate professor of international relations at Boston University, "Guest post: Blinded by the (solar) light", http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/05/22/guest-post-blinded-by-the-solar-light/?catid=491%26SID=google~~%23axzz1vhhMeBo3
The Obama Administration’s preliminary decision to impose a 31 per cent tariff on solar panels
AND
Administration should applaud it and do its part to correct market distortions too.

Reciprocation is directly tied to US tariffs and will crush the polysilicon and semiconductor industries

Wesoff 12 Eric, Senior Analyst, Greentech Media, 7/20, "China Retaliates in Solar Trade War" http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/china-retaliates-in-solar-trade-war/
But the impact of anti-dumping rulings on American polysilicon firms, the makers
AND
the semiconductor industry, another industry in which Chinese companies lags American manufacturers."

Polysilicon key to semiconductor industries

Koncept Analytics 12 Market Research Companies, Jan, "Global Polysilicon Market Report: 2011 Edition"  http://www.researchmoz.us/global-polysilicon-market-report-2011-edition-report.html
Polysilicon has a major influence on its end markets - Semiconductor and Photovoltaic industry.
AND
that produce top-quality silicon are the market leaders of the market. 

Reviving semiconductors is key to stop EMP attacks

Spring 94 (Baker Spring, Researcher – Heritage Foundation, Backgrounder, http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/BG987.cfm)
In addition to ensuring the reliability of the existing stockpile, testing has other important
AND
, September 20, 1993, pp. 4, 14-15.)

Extinction

Pry 10 (Peter Vincent, director of the U.S. Nuclear Strategy Forum, "What America Needs to Know About EMPs" http://wethearmed.com/index.php?topic=8450.0)
EMP is not just a threat to computers and electronic gadgets, but to all
AND
to the United States and advocated immediate implementation of the EMP Commission’s recommendations. 

1AC Solar Industry

Contention 2 is the Solar Industry

Scenario 1 is Blackouts

Solar tariffs will destroy the installation industry which shatters the overall solar market

Pierobon 12, 2-29, James, former Chief Energy Writer and Political Correspondent at the Houston Chronicle , "the case against a tariff on imported Chinese solar panels", http://theenergycollective.com/jimpierobon/77861/guest-opinion-jigar-shah-makes-case-against-tariff-imported-chinese-solar-panels
Last October the US subsidiary of German-based SolarWorld, a manufacturer of polysilicon
AND
is a terrible idea — for American jobs, prosperity and the environment."

The tariff halts US solar transition by preventing cost-competitiveness

Jabusch 5/18/12 ~Garvin Jabusch, cofounder and chief investment officer of Green Alpha Advisors and co-manager of the Green Alpha Next Economy Index. Jabusch was previously Director of Forward Sustainable Investments, a business unit of Forward Management, and Vice President, Strategic Services at Morgan Stanley. "Tariffs on Chinese Solar Are Bad for Us All," http://sierraclub.typepad.com/gaa/2012/05/tariffs-on-chinese-solar-are-bad-for-us-all.html~~
The United States Department of Commerce yesterday, and of all things at the behest
AND
we just ceded the advantage in getting Saudi’s solar business to Chinese firms. 

Heat waves are already threatening prolonged blackouts in US cities – these will only get more frequent and more intense

Stone 8/8/12 ~Brian Stone, Assistant Professor in the City and Regional Planning Program at the Georgia Institute of Technology, "Urban Heat Islands and Climate Change: Planning for Extreme Heat in Cities," http://www.epa.gov/hiri/resources/transcripts/8_aug_2012-webcasttranscript-stone.pdf~~
Most critical is your logical infrastructure. In 2003, the same year as the
AND
prolonged blackout in the major U.S. cities is certainly increasing.

Bioterror attack coming by 2013

Fox News 8 (Fox News, "Nuclear or Bioterror Attack on U.S. Likely by 2013, Panel Warns", 12-2-08, http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,459927,00.html)
Terrorists are likely to attack the United States using nuclear or biological weapons before 2013
AND
destruction today, all roads would intersect in Pakistan," the report states. 

An unchecked bioterror attack causes extinction

Steinbruner, 97 — Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution (John, Foreign Policy, 12/22, p. nexis)
More than 70 years later, revulsion persists and the Geneva Protocol has been strengthened
AND
for a global contagion of this sort but not necessarily its outer limit.   

Minimizing death toll key—large casualties ensure retaliation and escalation to nuclear war.

Conley 3 ~Lt Col Harry W. is chief of the Systems Analysis Branch, Directorate of Requirements, Headquarters Air Combat Command (ACC), Langley AFB, Virginia. Air %26 Space Power Journal) http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj03/spr03/conley.html~~
Continues…The number of American casualties suffered due to a WMD attack may well
AND
be more than just a possibility, whatever promises had been made."48

Blackouts undermine bioterror response and disease containment efforts that uniquely minimize mortality rates

Kelly and Osterholm 08 ~Nicholas S. Kelley, Research assistant with The Center for Infectious Disease Research %26 Policy(CIDRAP) Business Source and a doctoral student in the Divison of Environmental Health Sciences at the University of Minnesota’s School of Public Health, and Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research %26 Policy, director of the NIH‐supported Center of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance within CIDRAP, a professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, University of Minnesota. Written in their report "Pandemic Influenza, Electricity, and the Coal Supply Chain" http://www.sovrn.com/PDF/pubs_CIDRAP_Coal_Report.pdf~~
When one considers public health preparedness, the availability of electricity generally is not considered
AND
typically operate in the background—unless a breakdown in the infrastructure occurs.

Unchecked disease spread independently causes extinction

Yu 9 — Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Science (Victoria, Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate, 22 May 2009, http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate)
A pandemic will kill off all humans. In the past, humans have indeed
AND
could only infect birds — into a human-viable strain (10).

Expanded solar energy makes heat wave blackouts impossible

Perez et al 11 ~Richard Perez, Research Professor, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, SUNY; Ken Zweibel, director of the GW Solar Institute at George Washington University; Thomas Hoff,  Founder of Clean Power Research and President of its Research and Consulting Group; "Solar power generation in the US: Too expensive, or a bargain?" Energy Policy Volume 39, Issue 11, November 2011, Pages 7290–7297~
Solar generators, distributed PV in particular, are not available at will,2
AND
2010), representing a deployment potential of nearly 375 GW in the US.

Scenario 2 is Price Spikes

Natural gas prices are low but future volatility is inevitable

RCE 5/14/12 ~Real Clear Energy Editors, "Natural Gas Prices Have Become More Volatile," http://www.realclearenergy.org/charticles/2012/05/14/the_2000s_were_a_volatile_decade_for_natural_gas_prices.html~~
It is easy to forget how volatile natural gas markets have become and that the
AND
becomes more central to our economy, rapid price changes become more likely.

Price volatility wrecks the fertilizer industry

IECA 3 ~Industrial Energy Consumers of America, nonprofit organization created to promote the interests of manufacturing companies for which the availability, use and cost of energy, power or feedstock play a significant role in their ability to compete, July 22 2003, "IMPACT OF THE U.S. NATURAL GAS CRISIS ON THE NORTH AMERICAN NITROGEN FERTILIZER INDUSTRY," http://www.ieca-us.com/wp-content/uploads/072203Fertilizerbriefing.pdf~~
High natural gas prices present the most serious threat to the fertilizer sector and to
AND
must enact policies that stabilize the supply/demand balance for natural gas.

Food supply is on the brink now—the fertilizer industry is key to prevent a crisis

FI 9 ~Fertilizer Institute, Trade Group representing the fertilizer industry, "The U.S. Fertilizer Industry and Climate Change Policy," April 2 2009, http://www.kochfertilizer.com/pdf/TFI2009ClimateChange.pdf~~
Fertilizer nutrients – nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium – are all naturally occurring elements that
AND
disaster or substandard world harvest away from a full-scale food crisis.

Escalating food instability causes extinction—US production is key

Lugar 2k | Chairman of the Senator Foreign Relations Committee and Member/Former Chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee (Richard, a US Senator from Indiana, is Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and a member and former chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee. "calls for a new green revolution to combat global warming and reduce world instability," pg online @ http://www.unep.org/OurPlanet/imgversn/143/lugar.html)
In a world confronted by global terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East, burgeoning
AND
in the survival of billions of people and the health of our planet. 

Affordable solar power acts as a hedge against natural gas price spikes – ensures stability for industry

Powerfin Partners 11 ~Powerfin Partners is a manager of institutional funds for solar projects in North America, with meaningful experience in energy capital markets, legal and regulatory matters, and renewable engineering, "Why the Solar Industry Lacks Pricing Power," December 20, 2011, http://www.powerfinpartners.com/new_site/pdf/Why%20the%20Solar%20Industry%20Lacks%20Pricing%20Power%20122011.pdf~~
While myriad uncertainties surround the future of natural gas pricing, what is certain is
AND
a portion of your budget with a long-lived asset like solar.

Removing the tariff increases access to Chinese PV modules which are key to solar expansion

Berkman et al 12 ~Dr. Mark P. Berkman, Ph.D. in Public Policy Analysis, expert in applied microeconomics and principal at the Brattle Group; Dr. Lisa J. Cameron, Ph.D. in Economics and Senior Consultant for the Brattle Group; Judy Chang, economist with expertise in the analysis of electricity power markets and principal at the Brattle Group; "The Employment Impacts of Proposed Tariffs on Chinese Manufactured Photovoltaic Cells and Modules," January 30 2012, http://coalition4affordablesolar.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/TBG_Solar-Trade-Impact-Report.pdf~~
Average module prices in the U.S. are largely determined by Chinese imports
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expected to have a larger relative impact on the price of utility systems.

Tournament: Harvard | Round: 2 | Opponent: US Military Academy | Judge: Lincoln Garrett
Plan Text 

The United States federal government should lower duties on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells from the People’s Republic of China.

1AC Trade 

Contention 1 is trade

Recent US anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese Solar cell imports threaten to start an energy trade war

Rex-Kiss 8/17-12, Endre, green technology advocate and freelance copywriter in topics of sustainability and social media, "Are solar panels about to start a new trade war between China and the West?", http://www.earthtimes.org/green-blogs/green-living/solar-panel-trade-war-china-west-17-Aug-12/-http://www.earthtimes.org/green-blogs/green-living/solar-panel-trade-war-china-west-17-Aug-12/
Tensions are always running high between Chinese and western manufacturers, but it seems those
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turns volatile it will be bad for the environment as well as business.

Commerce decision put trade tensions on the brink – plan is key

Opalka 10/11/12 Bill, Editor-in-Chief of the RenewablesBiz Daily, "Solar Tariffs upheld on Chinese Manufacturers" http://www.renewablesbiz.com/article/12/10/solar-tariffs-upheld-chinese-manufacturers
Tariffs on Chinese solar panels were upheld by the Obama administration’s Commerce Department on Oct
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anti-subsidy policy at the World Trade Organization and in US courts."

Solar barriers spillover internationally and across industries—destroys the economy and causes a new escalating trade war

Tucker 8/27/12, William, work has appeared in Harper’s, the Atlantic Monthly, the American Spectator, the Weekly Standard, National Review, Reason, the New Republic, Reader’s Digest, the Wall Street Journal, and many other publications, "Let’s Just Admit Solar Needs Help and Avoid Trade War", http://www.nucleartownhall.com/blog/william-tucker-let%E2%80%99s-just-admit-solar-needs-help-and-avoid-trade-war/-http://www.nucleartownhall.com/blog/william-tucker-let%E2%80%99s-just-admit-solar-needs-help-and-avoid-trade-war/
Although the newspapers haven’t been paying much attention lately, the United States and China
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this will make for good old clean-and-green solar power.

The tariff makes Chinese reciprocation and global protectionism inevitable

Beebe 12, 4-28, Andrew, chief commercial officer of Suntech, "Inside a U.S.-China Solar Trade War", http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303404704577309583348171396.html
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a ruling last week to raise
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solar-industry growth and to solve our planet’s energy and environmental crisis.

An escalated U.S. China trade war results in economic conflicts and devastating protectionism

Wang and Li 11 (Jianhua and Yunlu—Xinhua news agency, citing Ni Feng, Vice President of the Institute of American Studies underthe Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Zhao Jinping, vice director of the Foreign Economic Department of the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council "China-US trade war no good for anyone", October 13, 2011. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90780/7616581.html
A trade war between the United States and China, each of which is the
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and will even lead to political and military confrontations in some sensitive regions. 

Economic crisis independently causes nuclear war

Green and Schrage 9 ~Michael J Green is Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Associate Professor at Georgetown University. Steven P Schrage is the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business and a former senior official with the US Trade Representative’s Office, State Department and Ways %26 Means Committee, "It’s not just the economy,"March 26 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html~~
Facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, analysts at the World Bank
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demonstration effect of liberal norms we are urging China to embrace at home.  

International protectionism triggers resource power wars and terrorism that escalates to nuclear war

Panzner 8—25-year veteran of the markets who has worked for for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and J.P. Morgan Chase. New York Institute of Finance faculty member and a graduate of Columbia University. (Michael, Financial Armageddon, 136-8)
Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of finance and trade will inspire the United
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between Muslims and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.

Most recent studies provide a direct connection between poor economic relations and military conflict

Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, "Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises," in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict
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such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.

Removing the tariff solves – market forces will correct any "dumping"

Gallaghers 12, 5-22, Kelly and Kevin, Kelly Sims Gallagher is associate professor of energy and environmental policy at The Fletcher School, Tufts University. Kevin P. Gallagher is associate professor of international relations at Boston University, "Guest post: Blinded by the (solar) light", http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/05/22/guest-post-blinded-by-the-solar-light/?catid=491%26SID=google~~%23axzz1vhhMeBo3
The Obama Administration’s preliminary decision to impose a 31 per cent tariff on solar panels
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Administration should applaud it and do its part to correct market distortions too.

Strategic value of renewables makes this conflict uniquely likely to escalate

Beijing Review 9/3/12 ~Citing Li Chunding, Ph.D. in Economics, research assistant at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, "Frictions over renewable energy," http://www.china.org.cn/business/2012-09/03/content_26410601.htm~~
A month after the United States launched the anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against
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is not likely to make a compromise on trade frictions in this sector.¶ 

Reciprocation is directly tied to US tariffs and will crush the polysilicon and semiconductor industries

Wesoff 12 Eric, Senior Analyst, Greentech Media, 7/20, "China Retaliates in Solar Trade War" http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/china-retaliates-in-solar-trade-war/
But the impact of anti-dumping rulings on American polysilicon firms, the makers
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the semiconductor industry, another industry in which Chinese companies lags American manufacturers."

Polysilicon key to semiconductor industries

Koncept Analytics 12 Market Research Companies, Jan, "Global Polysilicon Market Report: 2011 Edition"  http://www.researchmoz.us/global-polysilicon-market-report-2011-edition-report.html
Polysilicon has a major influence on its end markets - Semiconductor and Photovoltaic industry.
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that produce top-quality silicon are the market leaders of the market. 

Reviving semiconductors is key to stop EMP attacks

Spring 94 (Baker Spring, Researcher – Heritage Foundation, Backgrounder, http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/BG987.cfm)
In addition to ensuring the reliability of the existing stockpile, testing has other important
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, September 20, 1993, pp. 4, 14-15.)

Extinction

Pry 10 (Peter Vincent, director of the U.S. Nuclear Strategy Forum, "What America Needs to Know About EMPs" http://wethearmed.com/index.php?topic=8450.0)
EMP is not just a threat to computers and electronic gadgets, but to all
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to the United States and advocated immediate implementation of the EMP Commission’s recommendations. 

1AC Clean Energy

Contention 2 is Clean Tech Cooperation

The solar tariff disputes undermines broader US-China clean-energy cooperation

AP 5/19/12 ~"Ruling adds to China trade tension: POSSIBLE U.S. TARIFFS ON SOLAR-PANEL IMPORTS MAY THREATEN CLEAN ENERGY COOPERATION," http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ruling-adds-to-china-trade-tension/article_c7071e82-78b7-5d95-b943-a8c6e5cc93de.html-http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ruling-adds-to-china-trade-tension/article_c7071e82-78b7-5d95-b943-a8c6e5cc93de.html~~
POSSIBLE U.S. TARIFFS ON SOLAR-PANEL IMPORTS MAY THREATEN CLEAN ENERGY
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trade probe have warned China might retaliate against U.S. suppliers.

Clean-energy cooperation causes effective green-tech diffusion

Lin 11 ~Justin Yifu Lin, Former World Bank Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, "China, the US and clean energy cooperation," Jan 21 2011, http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/china-the-us-and-clean-energy-cooperation~~
Second, there are also major long-term global benefits from clean energy cooperation
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planet’s resources and safeguard future generations from the damaging effects of climate change.

The market cooperation creates is necessary to continued innovation in green-tech that solves climate change

Woetzel 9 ~Dr. Jonathan Woetzel, Ph.D. in political science from USC, Director in McKinsey %26 Company’s Greater China Office, August 2009, "China and the US: The potential of a clean-tech partnership,"  http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/China_and_the_US_The_potential_of_a_clean-tech_partnership_2419-http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/China_and_the_US_The_potential_of_a_clean-tech_partnership_2419~~
China and the United States, the world’s dominant producers of carbon emissions, have
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all of these technologies, they cannot achieve separately what they could jointly.

And, the solar issue spills over to all forms of environment cooperation—it undermines technical advancement to mitigate climate change

Barbier 12 (Edward B—the John S. Bugas Professor of Economics, University of Wyoming, "Can the US and China Cooperate over Climate and Clean Energy?", May 28, 2012, http://chinausfocus.com/energy-environment/can-the-us-and-china-cooperate-over-climate-and-clean-energy/)
One of the few bright spots in recent international negotiations to replace the expiring 1997
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undermines the fragile beginnings of US and China cooperation over global climate change.

Climate change is real, anthropogenic and causes extinction

Flournoy 12 — Citing Feng Hsu, PhD NASA Scientist @ the Goddard Space Flight
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, Springer Briefs in Space Development, Book, p. 10-11
In the Online Journal of Space Communication , Dr. Feng Hsu, a  NASA
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simply too high for us to take any chances" (Hsu 2010 ) 

Even if we don’t solve warming—C02 cuts alone solve ocean destruction which leads to extinction

Sify, Citing Professors @ University of Queensland and North Carolina, 10 (Sify News,  Citing Ove Hoegh-Gulberg, Professor @ University of Queensland and Director of the Global Change Institute AND Citing John Bruno, Associate Professor of Marine Science @ UNC, "Could unbridled climate changes lead to human extinction?," June 19th, http://www.sify.com/news/could-unbridled-climate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html-http://www.sify.com/news/could-unbridled-climate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html, EMM)
Sydney: Scientists have sounded alarm bells about how growing concentrations of greenhouse gases are
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undergoing massive change and in some cases beginning to fail’, he added. 

====Climate change is real and accelerating – prefer reverse biased sources====
Robinson, 11 ~10/25/11. Eugene, opinion, Washington Post, Citing extensively Muller a physicist at UC Berkely, "The scientific finding that settles the climate-change debate", http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-scientific-finding-that-settles-the-climate-change-debate/2011/03/01/gIQAd6QfDM_story.html-http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-scientific-finding-that-settles-the-climate-change-debate/2011/03/01/gIQAd6QfDM_story.html~~
For the clueless or cynical diehards who deny global warming, it’s getting awfully cold
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-nothing politicians — not scientists — who are committing an unforgivable fraud.

1AC Solar Industry

Contention 3 is the Solar Industry

Solar tariffs will destroy the installation industry which shatters the overall solar market

Pierobon 12, 2-29, James, former Chief Energy Writer and Political Correspondent at the Houston Chronicle , "the case against a tariff on imported Chinese solar panels", http://theenergycollective.com/jimpierobon/77861/guest-opinion-jigar-shah-makes-case-against-tariff-imported-chinese-solar-panels
Last October the US subsidiary of German-based SolarWorld, a manufacturer of polysilicon
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is a terrible idea — for American jobs, prosperity and the environment."

The tariff halts US solar transition by preventing cost-competitiveness

Jabusch 5/18/12 ~Garvin Jabusch, cofounder and chief investment officer of Green Alpha Advisors and co-manager of the Green Alpha Next Economy Index. Jabusch was previously Director of Forward Sustainable Investments, a business unit of Forward Management, and Vice President, Strategic Services at Morgan Stanley. "Tariffs on Chinese Solar Are Bad for Us All," http://sierraclub.typepad.com/gaa/2012/05/tariffs-on-chinese-solar-are-bad-for-us-all.html~~
The United States Department of Commerce yesterday, and of all things at the behest
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we just ceded the advantage in getting Saudi’s solar business to Chinese firms. 

Heat waves are already threatening prolonged blackouts in US cities – these will only get more frequent and more intense

Stone 8/8/12 ~Brian Stone, Assistant Professor in the City and Regional Planning Program at the Georgia Institute of Technology, "Urban Heat Islands and Climate Change: Planning for Extreme Heat in Cities," http://www.epa.gov/hiri/resources/transcripts/8_aug_2012-webcasttranscript-stone.pdf~~
Most critical is your logical infrastructure. In 2003, the same year as the
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prolonged blackout in the major U.S. cities is certainly increasing.

Bioterror attack coming by 2013

Fox News 8 (Fox News, "Nuclear or Bioterror Attack on U.S. Likely by 2013, Panel Warns", 12-2-08, http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,459927,00.html)
Terrorists are likely to attack the United States using nuclear or biological weapons before 2013
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destruction today, all roads would intersect in Pakistan," the report states. 

An unchecked bioterror attack causes extinction

Steinbruner, 97 — Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution (John, Foreign Policy, 12/22, p. nexis)
More than 70 years later, revulsion persists and the Geneva Protocol has been strengthened
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for a global contagion of this sort but not necessarily its outer limit.   

Blackouts undermine bioterror response and disease containment efforts that uniquely minimize mortality rates

Kelly and Osterholm 08 ~Nicholas S. Kelley, Research assistant with The Center for Infectious Disease Research %26 Policy(CIDRAP) Business Source and a doctoral student in the Divison of Environmental Health Sciences at the University of Minnesota’s School of Public Health, and Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research %26 Policy, director of the NIH‐supported Center of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance within CIDRAP, a professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, University of Minnesota. Written in their report "Pandemic Influenza, Electricity, and the Coal Supply Chain" http://www.sovrn.com/PDF/pubs_CIDRAP_Coal_Report.pdf~~
When one considers public health preparedness, the availability of electricity generally is not considered
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typically operate in the background—unless a breakdown in the infrastructure occurs.

Expanded solar energy makes heat wave blackouts impossible

Perez et al 11 ~Richard Perez, Research Professor, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, SUNY; Ken Zweibel, director of the GW Solar Institute at George Washington University; Thomas Hoff,  Founder of Clean Power Research and President of its Research and Consulting Group; "Solar power generation in the US: Too expensive, or a bargain?" Energy Policy Volume 39, Issue 11, November 2011, Pages 7290–7297~
Solar generators, distributed PV in particular, are not available at will,2
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2010), representing a deployment potential of nearly 375 GW in the US.

Unchecked disease spread independently causes extinction

Yu 9 — Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Science (Victoria, Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate, 22 May 2009, http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate)
A pandemic will kill off all humans. In the past, humans have indeed
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could only infect birds — into a human-viable strain (10).