Tournament: GSU | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge: 

1AC—-GSU

Plan
Plan Text 

The United States federal government should lower antidumping tariffs on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells from the People’s Republic of China.

1AC Trade
Contention 1 is trade 

Recent US anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese Solar cell imports threaten to start an energy trade war

Rex-Kiss 8/17-12, Endre, green technology advocate and freelance copywriter in topics of sustainability and social media, "Are solar panels about to start a new trade war between China and the West?", http://www.earthtimes.org/green-blogs/green-living/solar-panel-trade-war-china-west-17-Aug-12/-http://www.earthtimes.org/green-blogs/green-living/solar-panel-trade-war-china-west-17-Aug-12/
Tensions are always running high between Chinese and western manufacturers, but it seems those
AND
turns volatile it will be bad for the environment as well as business.

Solar barriers spillover internationally and across industries—destroys the economy and causes a new escalating trade war

Tucker 8/27/12, William, work has appeared in Harper’s, the Atlantic Monthly, the American Spectator, the Weekly Standard, National Review, Reason, the New Republic, Reader’s Digest, the Wall Street Journal, and many other publications, "Let’s Just Admit Solar Needs Help and Avoid Trade War", http://www.nucleartownhall.com/blog/william-tucker-let%E2%80%99s-just-admit-solar-needs-help-and-avoid-trade-war/-http://www.nucleartownhall.com/blog/william-tucker-let%E2%80%99s-just-admit-solar-needs-help-and-avoid-trade-war/
Although the newspapers haven’t been paying much attention lately, the United States and China
AND
this will make for good old clean-and-green solar power.

The tariff makes Chinese and global protectionism inevitable

Beebe 12, 4-28, Andrew, chief commercial officer of Suntech, "Inside a U.S.-China Solar Trade War", http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303404704577309583348171396.html
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a ruling last week to raise
AND
solar-industry growth and to solve our planet’s energy and environmental crisis.

Escalated U.S. China trade war results in economic conflicts and devastating protectionism

Wang and Li 11 (Jianhua and Yunlu—Xinhua news agency, citing Ni Feng, Vice President of the Institute of American Studies underthe Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Zhao Jinping, vice director of the Foreign Economic Department of the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council "China-US trade war no good for anyone", October 13, 2011. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90780/7616581.html
A trade war between the United States and China, each of which is the
AND
and will even lead to political and military confrontations in some sensitive regions. 

Economic crisis causes nuclear war

Green and Schrage 9 ~[Michael J Green is Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Associate Professor at Georgetown University. Steven P Schrage is the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business and a former senior official with the US Trade Representative’s Office, State Department and Ways %26 Means Committee, "It’s not just the economy,"March 26 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html~~]
Facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, analysts at the World Bank
AND
demonstration effect of liberal norms we are urging China to embrace at home.  

International protectionism triggers resource wars and terrorism that escalates to nuclear war

Panzner 8—25-year veteran of the markets who has worked for for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and J.P. Morgan Chase. New York Institute of Finance faculty member and a graduate of Columbia University. (Michael, Financial Armageddon, 136-8)
Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of finance and trade will inspire the United
AND
between Muslims and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.

US-China trade war escalates to military conflict

Landy 7 ~[Ben Landy, Director of Research and Strategy at the Atlantic Media Company, publisher of the Atlantic Monthly, National Journal, and Government Executive magazines.   Landy served in various research and project management positions at the Brookings Institution and Center for Strategic and International Studies, two leading public policy think tanks in Washington, D.C.  Ben holds a bachelor of arts degree from Yale University. April 3, 2007, http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/~%23comments-http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/,)
The greatest threat for the 21st century is that these economic flare-ups between
AND
–far more than increases in military budgets and anti-satellite tests.

Causes nuclear world war 3

Hunkovic 9 – American Military University ~[Lee J, 2009, "The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America", http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf~~]
A war between China, Taiwan and the United States has the potential to escalate
AND
outcome, therefore, other countries will not be considered in this study.

Direct connection between poor economic relations and military conflict – most recent studies prove

Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, "Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises," in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict
AND
such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.

Removing the tariff solves – market forces correct "dumping"

Gallaghers 12, 5-22, Kelly and Kevin, Kelly Sims Gallagher is associate professor of energy and environmental policy at The Fletcher School, Tufts University. Kevin P. Gallagher is associate professor of international relations at Boston University, "Guest post: Blinded by the (solar) light", http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/05/22/guest-post-blinded-by-the-solar-light/?catid=491%26SID=google~~%23axzz1vhhMeBo3
The Obama Administration’s preliminary decision to impose a 31 per cent tariff on solar panels
AND
Administration should applaud it and do its part to correct market distortions too.
1AC Solar Industry
Contention 2 is the Solar Industry
Scenario 1 is Blackouts

Solar tariffs destroy the installation industry which shatters the overall solar market

Pierobon 12, 2-29, James, former Chief Energy Writer and Political Correspondent at the Houston Chronicle , "the case against a tariff on imported Chinese solar panels", http://theenergycollective.com/jimpierobon/77861/guest-opinion-jigar-shah-makes-case-against-tariff-imported-chinese-solar-panels
Last October the US subsidiary of German-based SolarWorld, a manufacturer of polysilicon
AND
is a terrible idea — for American jobs, prosperity and the environment."

The tariff halts US solar transition by preventing cost-competitiveness

Jabusch 5/18/12 ~[Garvin Jabusch, cofounder and chief investment officer of Green Alpha Advisors and co-manager of the Green Alpha Next Economy Index. Jabusch was previously Director of Forward Sustainable Investments, a business unit of Forward Management, and Vice President, Strategic Services at Morgan Stanley. "Tariffs on Chinese Solar Are Bad for Us All," http://sierraclub.typepad.com/gaa/2012/05/tariffs-on-chinese-solar-are-bad-for-us-all.html~~]
The United States Department of Commerce yesterday, and of all things at the behest
AND
we just ceded the advantage in getting Saudi’s solar business to Chinese firms. 

Heat waves threaten prolonged blackouts – will only get more frequent and intense

Stone 8/8/12 ~[Brian Stone, Assistant Professor in the City and Regional Planning Program at the Georgia Institute of Technology, "Urban Heat Islands and Climate Change: Planning for Extreme Heat in Cities," http://www.epa.gov/hiri/resources/transcripts/8_aug_2012-webcasttranscript-stone.pdf~~]
Most critical is your logical infrastructure. In 2003, the same year as the
AND
prolonged blackout in the major U.S. cities is certainly increasing.

Bioterror attack coming by 2013

Fox News 8 (Fox News, "Nuclear or Bioterror Attack on U.S. Likely by 2013, Panel Warns", 12-2-08, http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,459927,00.html)
Terrorists are likely to attack the United States using nuclear or biological weapons before 2013
AND
destruction today, all roads would intersect in Pakistan," the report states. 

Bioterror attack causes extinction

Steinbruner, 97 — Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution (John, Foreign Policy, 12/22, p. nexis)
More than 70 years later, revulsion persists and the Geneva Protocol has been strengthened
AND
for a global contagion of this sort but not necessarily its outer limit.   

Minimizing death toll key—large casualties ensure retaliation and escalation to nuclear war

Conley 3 ~[Lt Col Harry W. is chief of the Systems Analysis Branch, Directorate of Requirements, Headquarters Air Combat Command (ACC), Langley AFB, Virginia. Air %26 Space Power Journal) http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj03/spr03/conley.html~~]
Continues…The number of American casualties suffered due to a WMD attack may well
AND
be more than just a possibility, whatever promises had been made."48

Blackouts undermine bioterror response and disease containment efforts that minimize mortality rates

Kelly and Osterholm 08 ~[Nicholas S. Kelley, Research assistant with The Center for Infectious Disease Research %26 Policy(CIDRAP) Business Source and a doctoral student in the Divison of Environmental Health Sciences at the University of Minnesota’s School of Public Health, and Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research %26 Policy, director of the NIH‐supported Center of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance within CIDRAP, a professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, University of Minnesota. Written in their report "Pandemic Influenza, Electricity, and the Coal Supply Chain" http://www.sovrn.com/PDF/pubs_CIDRAP_Coal_Report.pdf~~]
When one considers public health preparedness, the availability of electricity generally is not considered
AND
typically operate in the background—unless a breakdown in the infrastructure occurs.

Disease causes extinction

Yu 9 — Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Science (Victoria, Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate, 22 May 2009, http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate)
A pandemic will kill off all humans. In the past, humans have indeed
AND
could only infect birds — into a human-viable strain (10).

Expanded solar energy makes heat wave blackouts impossible

Perez et al 11 ~[Richard Perez, Research Professor, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, SUNY; Ken Zweibel, director of the GW Solar Institute at George Washington University; Thomas Hoff,  Founder of Clean Power Research and President of its Research and Consulting Group; "Solar power generation in the US: Too expensive, or a bargain?" Energy Policy Volume 39, Issue 11, November 2011, Pages 7290–7297~]
Solar generators, distributed PV in particular, are not available at will,2
AND
2010), representing a deployment potential of nearly 375 GW in the US.
Scenario 2 is Price Spikes

Natural gas prices are low but volatility is inevitable

RCE 5/14/12 ~[Real Clear Energy Editors, "Natural Gas Prices Have Become More Volatile," http://www.realclearenergy.org/charticles/2012/05/14/the_2000s_were_a_volatile_decade_for_natural_gas_prices.html~~]
It is easy to forget how volatile natural gas markets have become and that the
AND
becomes more central to our economy, rapid price changes become more likely.

Price volatility wrecks the fertilizer industry

IECA 3 ~[Industrial Energy Consumers of America, nonprofit organization created to promote the interests of manufacturing companies for which the availability, use and cost of energy, power or feedstock play a significant role in their ability to compete, July 22 2003, "IMPACT OF THE U.S. NATURAL GAS CRISIS ON THE NORTH AMERICAN NITROGEN FERTILIZER INDUSTRY," http://www.ieca-us.com/wp-content/uploads/072203Fertilizerbriefing.pdf~~]
High natural gas prices present the most serious threat to the fertilizer sector and to
AND
must enact policies that stabilize the supply/demand balance for natural gas.

Food supply is on the brink—the fertilizer industry is key to prevent a crisis

FI 9 ~[Fertilizer Institute, Trade Group representing the fertilizer industry, "The U.S. Fertilizer Industry and Climate Change Policy," April 2 2009, http://www.kochfertilizer.com/pdf/TFI2009ClimateChange.pdf~~]
Fertilizer nutrients – nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium – are all naturally occurring elements that
AND
disaster or substandard world harvest away from a full-scale food crisis.

Food instability causes extinction—US production is key

Lugar 2k | Chairman of the Senator Foreign Relations Committee and Member/Former Chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee (Richard, a US Senator from Indiana, is Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and a member and former chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee. "calls for a new green revolution to combat global warming and reduce world instability," pg online @ http://www.unep.org/OurPlanet/imgversn/143/lugar.html)
In a world confronted by global terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East, burgeoning
AND
in the survival of billions of people and the health of our planet. 

Solar power acts as a hedge against natural gas price spikes – ensures stability

Powerfin Partners 11 ~[Powerfin Partners is a manager of institutional funds for solar projects in North America, with meaningful experience in energy capital markets, legal and regulatory matters, and renewable engineering, "Why the Solar Industry Lacks Pricing Power," December 20, 2011, http://www.powerfinpartners.com/new_site/pdf/Why%20the%20Solar%20Industry%20Lacks%20Pricing%20Power%20122011.pdf~~]
While myriad uncertainties surround the future of natural gas pricing, what is certain is
AND
a portion of your budget with a long-lived asset like solar.

Removing the tariff increases access to Chinese PV modules which are key to solar expansion

Berkman et al 12 ~[Dr. Mark P. Berkman, Ph.D. in Public Policy Analysis, expert in applied microeconomics and principal at the Brattle Group; Dr. Lisa J. Cameron, Ph.D. in Economics and Senior Consultant for the Brattle Group; Judy Chang, economist with expertise in the analysis of electricity power markets and principal at the Brattle Group; "The Employment Impacts of Proposed Tariffs on Chinese Manufactured Photovoltaic Cells and Modules," January 30 2012, http://coalition4affordablesolar.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/TBG_Solar-Trade-Impact-Report.pdf~~]
Average module prices in the U.S. are largely determined by Chinese imports
AND
expected to have a larger relative impact on the price of utility systems.
1AC Clean Tech
Contention 3 is Clean Tech

Tariff disputes undermine broader US-China clean-energy cooperation

AP 5/19/12 ~["Ruling adds to China trade tension: POSSIBLE U.S. TARIFFS ON SOLAR-PANEL IMPORTS MAY THREATEN CLEAN ENERGY COOPERATION," http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ruling-adds-to-china-trade-tension/article_c7071e82-78b7-5d95-b943-a8c6e5cc93de.html-http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ruling-adds-to-china-trade-tension/article_c7071e82-78b7-5d95-b943-a8c6e5cc93de.html~]
POSSIBLE U.S. TARIFFS ON SOLAR-PANEL IMPORTS MAY THREATEN CLEAN ENERGY
AND
trade probe have warned China might retaliate against U.S. suppliers.

Clean-energy cooperation causes green-tech diffusion

Lin 11 ~[Justin Yifu Lin, Former World Bank Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, "China, the US and clean energy cooperation," Jan 21 2011, http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/china-the-us-and-clean-energy-cooperation~~]
Second, there are also major long-term global benefits from clean energy cooperation between the U.S. and China.  Costs of clean energy investment would fall throughout the world, making such investment more financially sustainable.  Clean energy is also a crucial part of providing energy access to better meet basic needs, to enhance growth, and to reduce poverty.
Making clean energy more available and more affordable won’t be easy. It entails making new and improved low-carbon technologies more cost-competitive on a global scale, and supporting developing countries as they strive to expand energy availability. Here, the capacities in both China and the U.S. for innovation and increased diffusion of clean energy technology come to the fore.
Achieving the needed cooperation will take work – in organizing scientific exchanges and shared research ventures, as well as in re-examining national investment and trade policies.
China and U.S. have the means, and I hope the continued will, to take necessary leadership roles in this sphere.  The success of China-U.S. clean energy cooperation could mean a win-win for China, the U.S., and the world.
Such joint efforts could also conserve the planet’s resources and safeguard future generations from the damaging effects of climate change.

Cooperation is key to creating a market for green-tech innovation that solves warming

Woetzel 9 ~[Dr. Jonathan Woetzel, Ph.D. in political science from USC, Director in McKinsey %26 Company’s Greater China Office, August 2009, "China and the US: The potential of a clean-tech partnership,"  http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/China_and_the_US_The_potential_of_a_clean-tech_partnership_2419~~]
China and the United States, the world’s dominant producers of carbon emissions, have
AND
all of these technologies, they cannot achieve separately what they could jointly.

The solar issue spills over to all forms of environment cooperation—undermines technical advancement and the Durban platform

Barbier 12 (Edward B—the John S. Bugas Professor of Economics, University of Wyoming, "Can the US and China Cooperate over Climate and Clean Energy?", May 28, 2012, http://chinausfocus.com/energy-environment/can-the-us-and-china-cooperate-over-climate-and-clean-energy/)
One of the few bright spots in recent international negotiations to replace the expiring 1997
AND
undermines the fragile beginnings of US and China cooperation over global climate change.

Durban Platform provides a new opportunity to solve climate change—even if it fails to stop warming, it substantially mitigates emissions

Robert N. Stavins 12 is the Albert Pratt Professor of Business and Government, Director of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program, and Chairman of the Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Group, "The Platform Opens a Window: An Unambiguous Consequence of the Durban Climate Talks", 1-1, http://www.robertstavinsblog.org/2012/01/01/the-platform-opens-a-window-an-unambiguous-consequence-of-the-durban-climate-talks/
Finally, We Arrive in Durban (2011)¶ The third of the three outcomes
AND
Climate Agreements is prepared to contribute to this effort. Please stay tuned.

Warming is real, anthropogenic and causes extinction

Flournoy 12 — Citing Feng Hsu, PhD NASA Scientist @ the Goddard Space Flight
AND
, Springer Briefs in Space Development, Book, p. 10-11
In the Online Journal of Space Communication , Dr. Feng Hsu, a  NASA
AND
simply too high for us to take any chances" (Hsu 2010 ) 

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge: 

Plan

The United States federal government should substantially lower antidumping tariffs on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells from the People’s Republic of China.

Advantage 1 is China

Scenario 1 is Trade War

US solar tariffs threaten to start a clean energy trade war

Tucker 8/27/12, William, work has appeared in Harper’s, the Atlantic Monthly, the American Spectator, the Weekly Standard, National Review, Reason, the New Republic, Reader’s Digest, the Wall Street Journal, and many other publications, "Let’s Just Admit Solar Needs Help and Avoid Trade War", http://www.nucleartownhall.com/blog/william-tucker-let%E2%80%99s-just-admit-solar-needs-help-and-avoid-trade-war/-http://www.nucleartownhall.com/blog/william-tucker-let%E2%80%99s-just-admit-solar-needs-help-and-avoid-trade-war/
Although the newspapers haven’t been paying much attention lately, the United States and China
AND
this will make for good old clean-and-green solar power.

Now is key – solar spills over and escalates within months

Bloomberg 9/5 ~Bloomberg News, "China Speeding U.S. Solar-Dumping Case as Election Nears: Energy," http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-05/china-speeding-u-s-solar-dumping-case-as-election-nears-energy.html~~
China is accelerating a dispute with the U.S. over solar-energy
AND
solar projects rose 61 percent to %24137.8 billion last year.

Strategic value of renewables makes this conflict uniquely likely to escalate

Beijing Review 9/3/12 ~Citing Li Chunding, Ph.D. in Economics, research assistant at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, "Frictions over renewable energy," http://www.china.org.cn/business/2012-09/03/content_26410601.htm~~
A month after the United States launched the anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against
AND
is not likely to make a compromise on trade frictions in this sector.¶ 

China cares most about solar tariffs—threatens high end products unlike previous disputes

Lan 12 (Xinzhen—Beijing Review, citing Li Chunding, research assistant at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences"Frictions Over Renewable Energy", September 3, 2012, http://www.bjreview.com.cn/business/txt/2012-09/03/content_479581_3.htm)
On the other hand, the burst of financial bubbles during the economic crisis has
AND
than that arising from those in middle- and low-end products.

Trade war causes US-China military conflict

Landy 7 ~Ben Landy, Director of Research and Strategy at the Atlantic Media Company, publisher of the Atlantic Monthly, National Journal, and Government Executive magazines.   Landy served in various research and project management positions at the Brookings Institution and Center for Strategic and International Studies, two leading public policy think tanks in Washington, D.C.  Ben holds a bachelor of arts degree from Yale University. April 3, 2007, http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/~~%23comments-http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/,)
The greatest threat for the 21st century is that these economic flare-ups between
AND
–far more than increases in military budgets and anti-satellite tests.

That causes nuclear world war 3

Hunkovic 9 – American Military University ~Lee J, 2009, "The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America", http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf~~
A war between China, Taiwan and the United States has the potential to escalate
AND
outcome, therefore, other countries will not be considered in this study.

An escalated U.S. China trade war results in economic conflicts and devastating protectionism

Wang and Li 11 (Jianhua and Yunlu—Xinhua news agency, citing Ni Feng, Vice President of the Institute of American Studies underthe Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Zhao Jinping, vice director of the Foreign Economic Department of the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council "China-US trade war no good for anyone", October 13, 2011. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90780/7616581.html
A trade war between the United States and China, each of which is the
AND
and will even lead to political and military confrontations in some sensitive regions. 

That causes world war

Panzner 8—25-year veteran of the markets who has worked for for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and J.P. Morgan Chase. New York Institute of Finance faculty member and a graduate of Columbia University. (Michael, Financial Armageddon, 136-8)
Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of finance and trade will inspire the United
AND
between Muslims and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.

Economic crisis independently causes nuclear war

Green and Schrage 9 ~Michael J Green is Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Associate Professor at Georgetown University. Steven P Schrage is the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business and a former senior official with the US Trade Representative’s Office, State Department and Ways %26 Means Committee, "It’s not just the economy,"March 26 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html~~
Facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, analysts at the World Bank
AND
demonstration effect of liberal norms we are urging China to embrace at home.  

Most recent studies provide a direct connection between poor economic relations and military conflict

Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, "Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises," in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict
AND
such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.

Scenario 2 is Clean Tech

The tariff prevents clean energy cooperation

AP 5/19/12 ~"Ruling adds to China trade tension: POSSIBLE U.S. TARIFFS ON SOLAR-PANEL IMPORTS MAY THREATEN CLEAN ENERGY COOPERATION," http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ruling-adds-to-china-trade-tension/article_c7071e82-78b7-5d95-b943-a8c6e5cc93de.html-http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ruling-adds-to-china-trade-tension/article_c7071e82-78b7-5d95-b943-a8c6e5cc93de.html~~
POSSIBLE U.S. TARIFFS ON SOLAR-PANEL IMPORTS MAY THREATEN CLEAN ENERGY
AND
trade probe have warned China might retaliate against U.S. suppliers.

That’s key to global clean energy diffusion

Lin 11 ~Justin Yifu Lin, Former World Bank Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, "China, the US and clean energy cooperation," Jan 21 2011, http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/china-the-us-and-clean-energy-cooperation~~
Second, there are also major long-term global benefits from clean energy cooperation between the U.S. and China.  Costs of clean energy investment would fall throughout the world, making such investment more financially sustainable.  Clean energy is also a crucial part of providing energy access to better meet basic needs, to enhance growth, and to reduce poverty.
Making clean energy more available and more affordable won’t be easy. It entails making new and improved low-carbon technologies more cost-competitive on a global scale, and supporting developing countries as they strive to expand energy availability. Here, the capacities in both China and the U.S. for innovation and increased diffusion of clean energy technology come to the fore. 

Specifically derails the diffusion of solar

Green 11, 12-19, Martin, executive research director at the Photovoltaics Centre of Excellence at the University of New South Wales in Australia, "A Solar Trade War Could Put Us All in the Dark", http://www.technologyreview.com/news/426392/a-solar-trade-war-could-put-us-all-in-the-dark/
The brewing solar trade war between the United States and China sullies what should be
AND
decades of international innovation and stall the global adoption of advanced solar technology.

The solves global resource wars that escalate globally

Droege 2 ~Peter Droege, Asia Pacific chair of the World Council for Renewable Energy, Professor at the University of Liechtenstein and the University of Newcastle School of Architecture and Built Environment; "Renewable Energy and the City: Urban life in an age of fossil fuel depletion and climate change," 23 Jan 2002, http://enviroscope.iges.or.jp/contents/13/data/PDF/WORD%20Pdf/9-1Droege_peter.pdf~~
While a few local urban systems may seem relatively safe from a terminal fossil fuel
AND
not the only threat to the survivability of the modern global urban system.

The tariff undermines the Durban platform for stopping climate change

Barbier 12 (Edward B—the John S. Bugas Professor of Economics, University of Wyoming, "Can the US and China Cooperate over Climate and Clean Energy?", May 28, 2012, http://chinausfocus.com/energy-environment/can-the-us-and-china-cooperate-over-climate-and-clean-energy/)
One of the few bright spots in recent international negotiations to replace the expiring 1997
AND
undermines the fragile beginnings of US and China cooperation over global climate change.

Durban is a crucial starting point for emission reductions – now is key

NewScientist 11, "Dangerous decade: What follows the Durban climate deal", 12-13, http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21278-dangerous-decade-what-follows-the-durban-climate-deal.html
Time is running out. However successful the deal felt early on Sunday, the
AND
close the ambition gap (see diagram), but nations must act now.

Warming is real, anthropogenic and causes extinction

Flournoy 12 — Citing Feng Hsu, PhD NASA Scientist @ the Goddard Space Flight
AND
, Springer Briefs in Space Development, Book, p. 10-11
In the Online Journal of Space Communication , Dr. Feng Hsu, a  NASA
AND
simply too high for us to take any chances" (Hsu 2010 ) 

Advantage 2 is Cheap PV Panels

Solar is approaching grid parity and widespread adoption in the US – the tariff derails that

Jabusch 5/18/12 ~Garvin Jabusch, cofounder and chief investment officer of Green Alpha Advisors and co-manager of the Green Alpha Next Economy Index. Jabusch was previously Director of Forward Sustainable Investments, a business unit of Forward Management, and Vice President, Strategic Services at Morgan Stanley. "Tariffs on Chinese Solar Are Bad for Us All," http://sierraclub.typepad.com/gaa/2012/05/tariffs-on-chinese-solar-are-bad-for-us-all.html~~
In addition, tariffs by definition are inflationary. A customer who now has to
AND
) has been off by as much as 5.8 percent this morning 

Chinese retaliation will further devastate domestic solar

Pierobon 12, 2-29, James, former Chief Energy Writer and Political Correspondent at the Houston Chronicle , "the case against a tariff on imported Chinese solar panels", http://theenergycollective.com/jimpierobon/77861/guest-opinion-jigar-shah-makes-case-against-tariff-imported-chinese-solar-panels
Last October the US subsidiary of German-based SolarWorld, a manufacturer of polysilicon
AND
is a terrible idea — for American jobs, prosperity and the environment."

Chinese imports are key – the tariff directly raises prices

Berkman et al 12 ~Dr. Mark P. Berkman, Ph.D. in Public Policy Analysis, expert in applied microeconomics and principal at the Brattle Group; Dr. Lisa J. Cameron, Ph.D. in Economics and Senior Consultant for the Brattle Group; Judy Chang, economist with expertise in the analysis of electricity power markets and principal at the Brattle Group; "The Employment Impacts of Proposed Tariffs on Chinese Manufactured Photovoltaic Cells and Modules," January 30 2012, http://coalition4affordablesolar.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/TBG_Solar-Trade-Impact-Report.pdf~~
Average module prices in the U.S. are largely determined by Chinese imports
AND
the imposition of a 50% or 100% tariff on Chinese imports. 

Scenario 1 is Blackouts

Frequent heat wave blackouts are coming now

Stone 8/8/12 ~Brian Stone, Assistant Professor in the City and Regional Planning Program at the Georgia Institute of Technology, "Urban Heat Islands and Climate Change: Planning for Extreme Heat in Cities," http://www.epa.gov/hiri/resources/transcripts/8_aug_2012-webcasttranscript-stone.pdf~~
Most critical is your logical infrastructure. In 2003, the same year as the
AND
prolonged blackout in the major U.S. cities is certainly increasing.

Bioterror attack coming by 2013

Fox News 8 (Fox News, "Nuclear or Bioterror Attack on U.S. Likely by 2013, Panel Warns", 12-2-08, http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,459927,00.html)
Terrorists are likely to attack the United States using nuclear or biological weapons before 2013
AND
destruction today, all roads would intersect in Pakistan," the report states. 

Bioterror attack causes extinction

Steinbruner, 97 — Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution (John, Foreign Policy, 12/22, p. nexis)
More than 70 years later, revulsion persists and the Geneva Protocol has been strengthened
AND
for a global contagion of this sort but not necessarily its outer limit.   

Minimizing death toll key—large casualties ensure retaliation and escalation to nuclear war

Conley 3 ~Lt Col Harry W. is chief of the Systems Analysis Branch, Directorate of Requirements, Headquarters Air Combat Command (ACC), Langley AFB, Virginia. Air %26 Space Power Journal) http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj03/spr03/conley.html~~
Continues…The number of American casualties suffered due to a WMD attack may well
AND
be more than just a possibility, whatever promises had been made."48

Blackouts prevent effective disease and bioterror response

Kelly and Osterholm 08 ~Nicholas S. Kelley, Research assistant with The Center for Infectious Disease Research %26 Policy(CIDRAP) Business Source and a doctoral student in the Divison of Environmental Health Sciences at the University of Minnesota’s School of Public Health, and Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research %26 Policy, director of the NIH‐supported Center of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance within CIDRAP, a professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, University of Minnesota. Written in their report "Pandemic Influenza, Electricity, and the Coal Supply Chain" http://www.sovrn.com/PDF/pubs_CIDRAP_Coal_Report.pdf~~
When one considers public health preparedness, the availability of electricity generally is not considered
AND
typically operate in the background—unless a breakdown in the infrastructure occurs.

Disease causes extinction

Greger 08 – M.D., is Director of Public Health and Animal Agriculture at The Humane Society of the United States (Michael Greger, , Bird Flu: A Virus of Our Own Hatching, http://birdflubook.com/a.php?id=111-http://birdflubook.com/a.php?id=111)
Senate Majority Leader Frist describes the recent slew of emerging diseases in almost biblical terms
AND
"might easily transmute into a tune whistled whilst passing a graveyard."3154

Solar adoption in the US solves

Perez et al 11 ~Richard Perez, Research Professor, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, SUNY; Ken Zweibel, director of the GW Solar Institute at George Washington University; Thomas Hoff,  Founder of Clean Power Research and President of its Research and Consulting Group; "Solar power generation in the US: Too expensive, or a bargain?" Energy Policy Volume 39, Issue 11, November 2011, Pages 7290–7297~
Solar generators, distributed PV in particular, are not available at will,2
AND
2010), representing a deployment potential of nearly 375 GW in the US.

Scenario 2 is Natural Gas

Natural gas price spikes represent a huge threat to US industry, including fertilizers – supply expansions don’t solve

Stones 9 ~Edward Stones, Director of Energy Risk at Dow Chemical Company, Dow Chemical Company Statement for the Record at the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources hearing on the Role of Natural Gas in Mitigating Climate Change, October 28 2009, http://www.energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=9b7877b6-e616-76f1-3513-0c3fe4cda514~~
In 2009, as in 2002, 2004 and 2006, drilling has declined dramatically
AND
ten years, and will continue to do so after this and every trough
. 

Affordable solar power acts as a hedge against natural gas price spikes – ensures stability for industry

Powerfin Partners 11 ~Powerfin Partners is a manager of institutional funds for solar projects in North America, with meaningful experience in energy capital markets, legal and regulatory matters, and renewable engineering, "Why the Solar Industry Lacks Pricing Power," December 20, 2011, http://www.powerfinpartners.com/new_site/pdf/Why%20the%20Solar%20Industry%20Lacks%20Pricing%20Power%20122011.pdf~~
While myriad uncertainties surround the future of natural gas pricing, what is certain is
AND
a portion of your budget with a long-lived asset like solar.

Spikes are the biggest threat to fertilizer – energy is key

IECA 3 ~Industrial Energy Consumers of America, nonprofit organization created to promote the interests of manufacturing companies for which the availability, use and cost of energy, power or feedstock play a significant role in their ability to compete, July 22 2003, "IMPACT OF THE U.S. NATURAL GAS CRISIS ON THE NORTH AMERICAN NITROGEN FERTILIZER INDUSTRY," http://www.ieca-us.com/wp-content/uploads/072203Fertilizerbriefing.pdf~~
High natural gas prices present the most serious threat to the fertilizer sector and to
AND
must enact policies that stabilize the supply/demand balance for natural gas.

Solves food crises

The Fertilizer Institute 9 ~Trade Group representing the fertilizer industry, "The U.S. Fertilizer Industry and Climate Change Policy," April 2 2009, http://www.kochfertilizer.com/pdf/TFI2009ClimateChange.pdf~~
Fertilizer nutrients – nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium – are all naturally occurring elements that
AND
disaster or substandard world harvest away from a full-scale food crisis.

Extinction

Lugar 2k | Chairman of the Senator Foreign Relations Committee and Member/Former Chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee (Richard, a US Senator from Indiana, is Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and a member and former chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee. "calls for a new green revolution to combat global warming and reduce world instability," pg online @ http://www.unep.org/OurPlanet/imgversn/143/lugar.html)
In a world confronted by global terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East, burgeoning
AND
in the survival of billions of people and the health of our planet. 

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge: 

Plan

The United States federal government should lower duties on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells from the People’s Republic of China

Advantage 1 is China

Scenario 1 is Trade War

Solar barriers spillover internationally and across industries—destroys the economy and causes a new escalating trade war

Tucker 8/27/12, William, work has appeared in Harper’s, the Atlantic Monthly, the American Spectator, the Weekly Standard, National Review, Reason, the New Republic, Reader’s Digest, the Wall Street Journal, and many other publications, "Let’s Just Admit Solar Needs Help and Avoid Trade War", http://www.nucleartownhall.com/blog/william-tucker-let%E2%80%99s-just-admit-solar-needs-help-and-avoid-trade-war/-http://www.nucleartownhall.com/blog/william-tucker-let%E2%80%99s-just-admit-solar-needs-help-and-avoid-trade-war/
Although the newspapers haven’t been paying much attention lately, the United States and China
AND
this will make for good old clean-and-green solar power.

Commerce confirmed the tariff and ensured continued trade war escalation—

McDonald 10/10 Joe is an AP Business Writer, China rejects US solar tariffs as protectionism, www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hllddSR0beXQ-2x8U-0O8dr1A0lA?docId=2f31c25a4c784f95bc62f6678b1f6a63
BEIJING (AP) — China demanded Thursday that Washington repeal steep tariffs on solar panels that Chinese AND
United States," said the spokesman, Wang Shuai. "No one does business to lose money."

Now is key – solar spills over and escalates within months

Bloomberg 9/5 ~Bloomberg News, "China Speeding U.S. Solar-Dumping Case as Election Nears: Energy," http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-05/china-speeding-u-s-solar-dumping-case-as-election-nears-energy.html~~
China is accelerating a dispute with the U.S. over solar-energy
AND
solar projects rose 61 percent to %24137.8 billion last year.

Strategic value of renewables makes this conflict uniquely likely to escalate

Beijing Review 9/3/12 ~Citing Li Chunding, Ph.D. in Economics, research assistant at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, "Frictions over renewable energy," http://www.china.org.cn/business/2012-09/03/content_26410601.htm~~
A month after the United States launched the anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against
AND
is not likely to make a compromise on trade frictions in this sector.¶ 

US-China trade war escalates to military conflict

Landy 7 ~Ben Landy, Director of Research and Strategy at the Atlantic Media Company, publisher of the Atlantic Monthly, National Journal, and Government Executive magazines.   Landy served in various research and project management positions at the Brookings Institution and Center for Strategic and International Studies, two leading public policy think tanks in Washington, D.C.  Ben holds a bachelor of arts degree from Yale University. April 3, 2007, http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/~~%23comments-http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/,)
The greatest threat for the 21st century is that these economic flare-ups between
AND
–far more than increases in military budgets and anti-satellite tests.

Causes nuclear world war 3

Hunkovic 9 – American Military University ~Lee J, 2009, "The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America", http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf~~
A war between China, Taiwan and the United States has the potential to escalate
AND
outcome, therefore, other countries will not be considered in this study.

Escalated U.S. China trade war results in economic conflicts and devastating protectionism

Wang and Li 11 (Jianhua and Yunlu—Xinhua news agency, citing Ni Feng, Vice President of the Institute of American Studies underthe Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Zhao Jinping, vice director of the Foreign Economic Department of the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council "China-US trade war no good for anyone", October 13, 2011. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90780/7616581.html
A trade war between the United States and China, each of which is the
AND
and will even lead to political and military confrontations in some sensitive regions. 

International protectionism triggers resource wars and terrorism that escalates to nuclear war

Panzner 8—25-year veteran of the markets who has worked for for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and J.P. Morgan Chase. New York Institute of Finance faculty member and a graduate of Columbia University. (Michael, Financial Armageddon, 136-8)
Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of finance and trade will inspire the United
AND
between Muslims and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.

Economic crisis causes nuclear war

Green and Schrage 9 ~Michael J Green is Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Associate Professor at Georgetown University. Steven P Schrage is the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business and a former senior official with the US Trade Representative’s Office, State Department and Ways %26 Means Committee, "It’s not just the economy,"March 26 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html~~
Facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, analysts at the World Bank
AND
demonstration effect of liberal norms we are urging China to embrace at home.  

Direct connection between poor economic relations and military conflict – most recent studies prove

Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, "Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises," in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict
AND
such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.

Scenario 2 is Clean Tech

Tariff disputes undermine broader US-China clean-energy cooperation

AP 5/19/12 ~"Ruling adds to China trade tension: POSSIBLE U.S. TARIFFS ON SOLAR-PANEL IMPORTS MAY THREATEN CLEAN ENERGY COOPERATION," http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ruling-adds-to-china-trade-tension/article_c7071e82-78b7-5d95-b943-a8c6e5cc93de.html-http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ruling-adds-to-china-trade-tension/article_c7071e82-78b7-5d95-b943-a8c6e5cc93de.html~~
POSSIBLE U.S. TARIFFS ON SOLAR-PANEL IMPORTS MAY THREATEN CLEAN ENERGY
AND
trade probe have warned China might retaliate against U.S. suppliers.

Clean-energy cooperation causes green-tech diffusion

Lin 11 ~Justin Yifu Lin, Former World Bank Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, "China, the US and clean energy cooperation," Jan 21 2011, http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/china-the-us-and-clean-energy-cooperation~~
Second, there are also major long-term global benefits from clean energy cooperation between the U.S. and
AND
effects of climate change.

Specifically derails the diffusion of solar

Green 11, 12-19, Martin, executive research director at the Photovoltaics Centre of Excellence at the University of New South Wales in Australia, "A Solar Trade War Could Put Us All in the Dark", http://www.technologyreview.com/news/426392/a-solar-trade-war-could-put-us-all-in-the-dark/
The brewing solar trade war between the United States and China sullies what should be
AND
decades of international innovation and stall the global adoption of advanced solar technology.

This solves global resource wars that escalate globally

Droege 2 ~Peter Droege, Asia Pacific chair of the World Council for Renewable Energy, Professor at the University of Liechtenstein and the University of Newcastle School of Architecture and Built Environment; "Renewable Energy and the City: Urban life in an age of fossil fuel depletion and climate change," 23 Jan 2002, http://enviroscope.iges.or.jp/contents/13/data/PDF/WORD%20Pdf/9-1Droege_peter.pdf~~
While a few local urban systems may seem relatively safe from a terminal fossil fuel
AND
not the only threat to the survivability of the modern global urban system.

The solar issue spills over to all forms of environment cooperation—undermines technical advancement and the Durban platform

Barbier 12 (Edward B—the John S. Bugas Professor of Economics, University of Wyoming, "Can the US and China Cooperate over Climate and Clean Energy?", May 28, 2012, http://chinausfocus.com/energy-environment/can-the-us-and-china-cooperate-over-climate-and-clean-energy/)
One of the few bright spots in recent international negotiations to replace the expiring 1997
AND
undermines the fragile beginnings of US and China cooperation over global climate change.

Durban is a crucial starting point for emission reductions – now is key

NewScientist 11, "Dangerous decade: What follows the Durban climate deal", 12-13, http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21278-dangerous-decade-what-follows-the-durban-climate-deal.html
Time is running out. However successful the deal felt early on Sunday, the
AND
close the ambition gap (see diagram), but nations must act now.

Warming is real, anthropogenic and causes extinction

Flournoy 12 — Citing Feng Hsu, PhD NASA Scientist @ the Goddard Space Flight
AND
, Springer Briefs in Space Development, Book, p. 10-11
In the Online Journal of Space Communication , Dr. Feng Hsu, a  NASA
AND
simply too high for us to take any chances" (Hsu 2010 ) 

Advantage 2 is Cheap PV Panels

The tariff halts US solar transition by preventing cost-competitiveness

Jabusch 5/18/12 ~Garvin Jabusch, cofounder and chief investment officer of Green Alpha Advisors and co-manager of the Green Alpha Next Economy Index. Jabusch was previously Director of Forward Sustainable Investments, a business unit of Forward Management, and Vice President, Strategic Services at Morgan Stanley. "Tariffs on Chinese Solar Are Bad for Us All," http://sierraclub.typepad.com/gaa/2012/05/tariffs-on-chinese-solar-are-bad-for-us-all.html~~
The United States Department of Commerce yesterday, and of all things at the behest
AND
we just ceded the advantage in getting Saudi’s solar business to Chinese firms. 

Solar tariffs destroy the installation industry which shatters the overall solar market

Pierobon 12, 2-29, James, former Chief Energy Writer and Political Correspondent at the Houston Chronicle , "the case against a tariff on imported Chinese solar panels", http://theenergycollective.com/jimpierobon/77861/guest-opinion-jigar-shah-makes-case-against-tariff-imported-chinese-solar-panels
Last October the US subsidiary of German-based SolarWorld, a manufacturer of polysilicon
AND
is a terrible idea — for American jobs, prosperity and the environment."

Scenario 1 is Polysilicon

China will retaliate on US polysilicon exports – collapse the US polysilicon industry

Romano 12 Benjamin, senior trade-mark clerk who manages the firm’s foreign trade-mark prosecution practice, 7/20, "’Retaliatory’ Chinese Investigation will Hurt US Polysilicon Makers" http://www.rechargenews.com/energy/solar/article318472.ece
US polysilicon manufacturers and analysts say the Chinese trade investigations are clearly in retaliation for
AND
adverse impact on US polysilicon manufacturers, regardless of the investigations’ outcome". ¶ 

Polysilicon key to semiconductor industries – US companies that produce the best silicon would be hit by China’s retaliation

Koncept Analytics 12 Market Research Companies, Jan, "Global Polysilicon Market Report: 2011 Edition"  http://www.researchmoz.us/global-polysilicon-market-report-2011-edition-report.html
Polysilicon has a major influence on its end markets - Semiconductor and Photovoltaic industry.
AND
that produce top-quality silicon are the market leaders of the market. 

That’s key to the DOD Global Information Grid

Lawrence K. Harada 10, Colonel, United States Army Reserve, 4/21/10, "SEMICONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGY AND U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY," http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA526581
America’s National Interests, National Defense Strategy, and National Military Strategy highlight the importance
AND
unequivocal. Yet, DOD and intelligence agencies find themselves in a dilemma.
Semiconductor technologies that support U.S. national security also fuel the much larger
AND
high-speed requirements rests with the U.S. semiconductor industry. 

GIG’s key to battlefield superiority and nuclear C2

DOD 1 – Department of Defense, 7/27/1, "Network Centric Warfare," http://www.dodccrp.org/files/ncw_report/report/ncw_main.pdf
The concept of a "Global Information Grid" was born out of concerns regarding interoperability and end-to-end
AND
Timely, assured connectivity and information availability for decision makers and their advisors to support effective decision making 

Global nuclear war

John P. Caves 10 Jr., Senior Research Fellow in the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at the National Defense University, January 2010, "Avoiding a Crisis of Confidence in the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent," Strategic Forum, No. 252
Perceptions of a compromised U.S. nuclear deterrent as described above would have profound policy
AND
than what nuclear-armed terrorists alone could inflict.

Scenario 2 is Natural Gas

Natural gas price spikes represent a huge threat to US industry, including fertilizers – supply expansions don’t solve

Stones 9 ~Edward Stones, Director of Energy Risk at Dow Chemical Company, Dow Chemical Company Statement for the Record at the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources hearing on the Role of Natural Gas in Mitigating Climate Change, October 28 2009, http://www.energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=9b7877b6-e616-76f1-3513-0c3fe4cda514~~
In 2009, as in 2002, 2004 and 2006, drilling has declined dramatically
AND
ten years, and will continue to do so after this and every trough
. 

Solar power acts as a hedge against natural gas price spikes – ensures stability

Powerfin Partners 11 ~Powerfin Partners is a manager of institutional funds for solar projects in North America, with meaningful experience in energy capital markets, legal and regulatory matters, and renewable engineering, "Why the Solar Industry Lacks Pricing Power," December 20, 2011, http://www.powerfinpartners.com/new_site/pdf/Why%20the%20Solar%20Industry%20Lacks%20Pricing%20Power%20122011.pdf~~
While myriad uncertainties surround the future of natural gas pricing, what is certain is
AND
a portion of your budget with a long-lived asset like solar.

Price volatility wrecks the fertilizer industry

IECA 3 ~Industrial Energy Consumers of America, nonprofit organization created to promote the interests of manufacturing companies for which the availability, use and cost of energy, power or feedstock play a significant role in their ability to compete, July 22 2003, "IMPACT OF THE U.S. NATURAL GAS CRISIS ON THE NORTH AMERICAN NITROGEN FERTILIZER INDUSTRY," http://www.ieca-us.com/wp-content/uploads/072203Fertilizerbriefing.pdf~~
High natural gas prices present the most serious threat to the fertilizer sector and to
AND
must enact policies that stabilize the supply/demand balance for natural gas.

Food supply is on the brink—the fertilizer industry is key to prevent a crisis

FI 9 ~Fertilizer Institute, Trade Group representing the fertilizer industry, "The U.S. Fertilizer Industry and Climate Change Policy," April 2 2009, http://www.kochfertilizer.com/pdf/TFI2009ClimateChange.pdf~~
Fertilizer nutrients – nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium – are all naturally occurring elements that
AND
disaster or substandard world harvest away from a full-scale food crisis.

Food instability causes extinction—US production is key

Lugar 2k | Chairman of the Senator Foreign Relations Committee and Member/Former Chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee (Richard, a US Senator from Indiana, is Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and a member and former chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee. "calls for a new green revolution to combat global warming and reduce world instability," pg online @ http://www.unep.org/OurPlanet/imgversn/143/lugar.html)
In a world confronted by global terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East, burgeoning
AND
in the survival of billions of people and the health of our planet. 

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge: 

2AC—-T General

Financial incentives are loss of revenue by government—limits out regulatory mandates
Gielecki et al 1 Mark Gielecki is an economist with the Energy Information Administration, AND Fred Mayes is currently the Senior Technical Advisor for the Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables programs within the U.S. Department of Energy, AND Lawrence Prete, "Incentives, Mandates, andGovernment Programs forPromoting Renewable Energy" Feb 2001 lobby.la.psu.edu/_107th/128_PURPA/Agency_Activities/EIA/Incentive_Mandates_and_Government.htm
Over the years, incentives and mandates for renewable energy have been used to advance
AND
regulatory mandates generally require no expenditures or loss of revenue by the Government.

Energy production includes all stages from the point of resource location through distribution to the final consumers

Koplow 4 Doug Koplow is the founder of Earth Track in Cambridge, MA. He has worked on natural resource subsidy issues for 20 years, primarily in the energy sector "Subsidies to Energy Industries" Encyclopedia of Energy Vol 5 2004www.earthtrack.net/files/Energy%20Encyclopedia,%20wv.pdf
3. SUBSIDIES THROUGH THE FUEL CYCLE¶ Because no two fuel cycles are exactly
AND
transport include road, rail, water, pipelines, and transmission lines.

In the context of solar this is the installation of solar panels which is what the tariff restricts

PNL 78, Report Commissioned by the DOE Pacific Northwestern Laboratories "An Analysis of Federal Incentives Used to Stimulate Energy Production" March 1978 www.osti.gov/bridge/servlets/purl/7059750-iKeQE4/7059750.pdf
Energy production is defined as the transformation of natural resources into commonly used forms of
AND
technology and resources to change a natural resource into a useful energy form.

And a restriction of production is a government action that directly makes production and/or distribution expensive

LVM Institute 96, Ludwig Von Mises Institute Original Book by Ludwig Von Mises, Austrian Economist in 1940. Evidence is cut from fourth edition copyright Bettina B. Greaves, "Human Action" http://mises.org/pdf/humanaction/pdf/ha_29.pdf-http://mises.org/pdf/humanaction/pdf/ha_29.pdf
We shall deal in this chapter with those measures which are directly and primarily intended
AND
it is lower. It does not increase production; it curtails it.
AT: Elections

Romney win—-national polls best—-state polls suck

Horowitz 10/26—writes for the Madison Project  (Daniel, A Wide Electoral/Popular Vote Split Won’t Happen, www.redstate.com/2012/10/26/a-wide-electoralpopular-vote-split-wont-happen/-http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/26/a-wide-electoralpopular-vote-split-wont-happen/)
There is an emerging narrative percolating throughout the political world; the prospect that Romney
AND
win Independents nationally by 15-19 points and lose the Electoral College.

Decision happens after the election and goes through the ITC

Paretzky 10/20/12 ~Raymond Paretzky, partner in the law firm of McDermott Will %26 Emery LLP, "Commerce Department Announces New Duties on Chinese Solar Panel Imports," The National Law Review, http://www.natlawreview.com/article/commerce-department-announces-new-duties-chinese-solar-panel-imports~~
For the early duty deposit collection to be maintained and the AD/CVD duties
AND
ITC has tentatively scheduled its final determination vote for November 7, 2012.

All indicators prove Obama distinguishing trade policy from Romney will win him the election

Kadlec 9-25-12, Charles, member of the Economic Advisory Board of the American Principles Project, an initiative founded in 2009 by Professor Robert George of Princeton University, MBA with honors from the University of Chicago, and his BA in Political Science/Chemistry from the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Will China Bashing Cost Mitt Romney The Election?, http://www.forbes.com/sites/charleskadlec/2012/09/25/will-china-bashing-cost-mitt-romney-the-election/2/
Governor Mitt Romney’s campaign for President made a potentially fatal error on September 13th by
AND
of his policy failures more than the challenger from the world of business.

AT: Fiscal Cliff

Fiscal cliff won’t pass in lame duck and no impact

Swanson 10/24 Ian, The Hill, "Fiscal cliff approaches and concerns mount", 2012, thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/economy/263699-cliff-approaches-and-concerns-mount
Yet two weeks before a presidential election that is razor-close, there is
AND
collapse," he says, though the damage will build up over time. 

DOD will be fine—sequestration forces fiscal discipline, no military collapse

Gordon Adams 10/17/12, professor of international relations at the School of International Service at American University and Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Center, "The Fiscal Slide ," Foreign Policy,  www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/10/17/the_fiscal_slide?page=full
We are in the middle of a political and rhetorical donnybrook about the threat that
AND
, our national security might just be as safe as it ever was. 

Trade overwhelmingly bipartisan

Bloomberg 11 9/12 "Trade Deals Wed Obama to Republicans as Democrats Vow to Oppose" http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-13/trade-deals-wed-obama-to-republicans.html
President Barack Obama-http://topics.bloomberg.com/barack-obama/ won a standing ovation when he called in his speech to Congress
AND
a dozen or so stood up. That’s where the president’s problem is." 

Obama has no leverage

Herb and Wasson 10/23 Jeremy Herb and Erik Wasson, writers for the Hill, "GOP: Obama’s sequester remark during debate could reshape fiscal cliff talks", October 23, 2012, http://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill/budget-appropriations/263523-obama-sequester-remark-could-reshape-fiscal-cliff-negotiations
President Obama’s vow at Monday’s debate that the sequestration cuts "will not happen"
AND
were immediately trying to walk it back," said one GOP House aide.

Courts

Doesn’t solve – Commerce department controls the tariff – the process is designed to ignore other branches

Bradsher 11 ~Keith Bradsher, Hong Kong bureau chief of The New York Times, and Matthew Wald, energy reporter for the New York Times, "Trade War in Solar Takes Shape," http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/10/business/global/us-and-china-on-brink-of-trade-war-over-solar-power-industry.html?pagewanted=2%26ref=keithbradsher~~
The Commerce Department uses a quasi-judicial process administered mainly by civil servants to
AND
of commerce for international trade during President George W. Bush’s second term.

CP hurts legitimacy – takes out solvency

Bentley, 2007 (Curt, Constrained by the liberal tradition, Brigham Young University Law Review, p. lexis)
This institutional limitation theory focuses primarily on the constraints imposed on the Court because of
AND
decrees and where it nonetheless doggedly pursues the counter-majoritarian course. n122

AT: CAP K

Capitalism is sustainable—-self-correcting

Seabra 12 (Leo, has a background in Communication and Broadcasting and a broad experience which includes activities in Marketing, Advertising, Sales and Public Relations, 2/27, "Capitalism can drive Sustainability and also innovation," http://seabraaffairs.wordpress.com/2012/02/27/capitalism-can-drive-sustainability-and-also-innovation/)
There are those who say that if the world does not change their habits,
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work without distortion. The rest he does himself. It regulates itself.

Using economics and foreign policy  as the problem frames for solar power are the only way to overcome deeply entrenched perspectives about its efficacy

Laird 1 (Frank—prof in the school of intl studies at University of Denver, PhD in Political Science from MIT, MA in Physics from University of Edinburgh, "Solar Energy, Technology Policy, and Institutional Values", Cambridge University Press, Print.)
U.S. energy policy makers held remarkably consistent normative and technical ideas (
AND
of ideas, normative and empirical, being institutionalized into official problem frames. 

No root cause

Larrivee 10— PF ECONOMICS AT MOUNT ST MARY’S UNIVERSITY – MASTERS FROM THE HARVARD KENNEDY SCHOOL AND PHD IN ECONOMICS FROM WISCONSIN, 10 ~JOHN, A FRAMEWORK FOR THE MORAL ANALYSIS OF MARKETS, 10/1, http://www.teacheconomicfreedom.org/files/larrivee-paper-1.pdf-http://www.teacheconomicfreedom.org/files/larrivee-paper-1.pdf~~
 The Second Focal Point: Moral, Social, and Cultural Issues of Capitalism
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problems in the first place, at least not to the degree theorized. 

Cap solves war—capitalist peace theory

Harrison 11 (Mark, Department of Economics, University of Warwick, Centre for Russian and East European Studies, University of Birmingham, Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace, Stanford University, "Capitalism at War", Oct 19 http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/academic/harrison/papers/capitalism.pdf)
Capitalism’s Wars America is the world’s preeminent capitalist power. According to a poll of
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, controlling for the level of economic development and measures of political affinity.

The alternative to capitalism is centralized power—-causes totalitarianism and genocide

Meltzer 11 (Allan H, Professor of Political Economy at Carnegie Mellon, "Why Capitalism?", 1/1, http://repository.cmu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1581%26context=tepper%26sei-redir=1)
The Templeton Foundation recently ran an advertisement reporting the answers several prominent intellectuals gave to
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visions become totalitarian. All deviations from the utopian ideal must be prevented. 

AT: Heidegger

Academic debate over energy policy in the face of environmental destruction is critical to shape the direction of change and create a public consciousness shift—-the K’s esoteric abstractions allow for extinction—-action now is key

Crist 4 (Eileen, Professor at Virginia Tech in the Department of Science and Technology, "Against the social construction of nature and wilderness", Environmental Ethics 26;1, p 13-6, http://www.sts.vt.edu/faculty/crist/againstsocialconstruction.pdf)
Yet, constructivist analyses of "nature" favor remaining in the comfort zone of
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choosing to ignore it may well be the psychologically risk-free option.
Nevertheless, this is the opportune historical moment for intellectuals in the humanities and social
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the world at an hour that is pressingly calling us to change it.

Pragmatic warming policy is effective and key to prevent extinction—-the K results in disengagement and endless theoretical uncertainty that debilitates action—-only the perm can bridge the gap

Simpson 10 (Francis, College of Engineering, Vanderbilt University, "Environmental Pragmatism and its Application to Climate Change The Moral Obligations of Developed and Developing Nations to Avert Climate Change as viewed through Technological Pragmatism", Spring 2010 | Volume 6 | Number 1)
Pragmatism and Footprinting
Environmental pragmatism is a relatively new field of environmental ethics that seeks to move beyond
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of sustainability footprinting in environmental pragmatism generate moral prescriptions for averting climate change?
Environmental Pragmatism necessitates the need for tools in engineering to be developed and applied to
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these tools to ensure that the environment is adequately protected for future generations.
Climate change modeling inherently contains many unknowns in terms of future outcomes and applied simplifications
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have a moral obligation to protect the future of humanity and the biosphere.

Using economics and foreign policy  as the problem frames for solar power are the only way to overcome deeply entrenched perspectives about its efficacy

Laird 1 (Frank—prof in the school of intl studies at University of Denver, PhD in Political Science from MIT, MA in Physics from University of Edinburgh, "Solar Energy, Technology Policy, and Institutional Values", Cambridge University Press, Print.)
U.S. energy policy makers held remarkably consistent normative and technical ideas (
AND
of ideas, normative and empirical, being institutionalized into official problem frames. 

The perm is the only realistic option—-the choice isn’t between tech or environmental consciousness—-we need both

Anderson 96 — political scientist, social psychologist, and author of numerous non-fiction books.  President Emeritus of the World Academy of Art and Science; a founding Fellow of the Meridian Intl Institute; a Fellow of the Western Behavioral Sciences Institute; and a Distinguished Consulting Faculty member of Saybrook U. (Walter, There’s no going back to nature, Sept/Oct 96 Issue, http://www.motherjones.com/politics/1996/09/theres-no-going-back-nature)

Projects such as this inspire enthusiasm from most people — but are scornfully dismissed as "technological fixes" by back-to-nature true believers.
The term technological fix deserves some attention here, since it’s one of the staples
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evolution of technology away from heavy industrialism and value shifts about the environment.
Most of the other back-to-nature terms are similarly pumped-up
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have 6 billion people in it, whether we like it or not.
Bioregionalism, too, is a useful idea in some contexts — such as governance
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Not everybody does, not everybody wants to, and not everybody can.
Even the people who talk bioregionalism don’t live that way — and don’t seem to
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to keep a sense of what’s going on in the country that way."
I don’t think this makes Snyder a hypocrite. I think he’s a perfectly honest guy who would rather recycle green platitudes for admiring listeners than think hard about what it really means to live in a global civilization.
Probably the most serious weakness of pop ecophilosophy is its Luddite tilt. Technology isn’t just a thing — it is human thought, action, information, and invention, and a living part of who and what we are. Some applications of technology are lousy and some are wonderful. But simply taking sides for or against technology is the lowest common denominator of public discourse.
Some technologies are and will always be central to environmental protection. I doubt that most people realize how important information technologies are in environmental management today.
We worry about the hole in the ozone layer — and we should worry about it — but don’t appreciate the exquisite technology involved in detecting it, monitoring its ebbs and flows, projecting its future. Nobody sees a hole in the ozone. Like many other major environmental issues, it is accessible to our understanding only through the use of monitoring technologies.
An enormous environmental information system has grown, spreading and connecting around the world.
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of all the writers and philosophy professors who push deep ecology and bioregionalism.

Qer

Say no – Commerce controls the tariff and the process is designed to ignore other branches

Bradsher 11 ~[Keith Bradsher, Hong Kong bureau chief of The New York Times, and Matthew Wald, energy reporter for the New York Times, "Trade War in Solar Takes Shape," http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/10/business/global/us-and-china-on-brink-of-trade-war-over-solar-power-industry.html?pagewanted=2%26ref=keithbradsher~~]
The Commerce Department uses a quasi-judicial process administered mainly by civil servants to
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of commerce for international trade during President George W. Bush’s second term.

CP prolongs uncertainty over the tariff – that collapses solar globally

Kenedi 8/3/12 ~[Ron Kenedi, solar industry veteran with more than 30 years of experience, including senior management roles at LDK Solar, Sharp Electronics Solar Division, Kyocera Solar Inc., and Photocomm, Inc., "A ’Third Way’ Approach for U.S.-China Solar Trade," http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/03/635101/a-third-way-approach-for-us-china-solar-trade/~~]
The result of all this chest pounding and legal maneuverings (the extent of which
AND
throughout the global solar industry, have been further squeezed by this action.

Should means desirability

Atlas Collaboration 99 ~[ATD, Jan. 24, http://rd13doc.cern.ch/Atlas/DaqSoft/sde/inspect/shall.html-http://rd13doc.cern.ch/Atlas/DaqSoft/sde/inspect/shall.html~]
’shall’ describes something that is mandatory. If a requirement uses ’shall’, then that requirement _will_ be satisfied without fail.
Noncompliance is not allowed. Failure to comply with one single ’shall’ is sufficient reason to reject the entire product. Indeed, it must be rejected under these circumstances.
Examples:
"Requirements shall make use of the word ’shall’ only where compliance is mandatory."
 This is a  good example.
 "C++ code shall have comments every 5th line."
 This is a bad example. Using ’shall’ here is too strong.
should
’should’ is weaker. It describes something that might not be satisfied in the final product, but that is desirable enough that any noncompliance shall be explicitly justified. Any use of  ’should’ should be examined carefully, as it probably means that something is not being stated clearly. If a ’should’ can be replaced by a ’shall’, or can be discarded entirely, so much the better. 

Resolved irrelevant

Webster’s Guide to Grammar and Writing – 2k http://ccc.commnet.edu/grammar/marks/colon.htm-http://ccc.commnet.edu/grammar/marks/colon.htm
Use of a colon before a list or an explanation that is preceded by a clause that can stand by itself. Think of the colon as a gate, inviting one to go on… If the introductory phrase preceding the colon is very brief and the clause following the colon represents the real business of the sentence, begin the clause after the colon with a capital letter. 

Prefer those – aff gets to interpret the plan – any other approach creates dozens of normal means CP’s we can’t predict

The CP is the SQ —- Section 7321 of US code legally obligates the president to submit a comprehensive energy plan that involves stakeholders

Lindsey Marburger, 11/30/10, manages the Earth Systems Program, overseeing Federation of American Scientists’ work in building technologies, energy efficiency and energy technology training and safety, and systems resource analysis, "PCAST Federal Energy Policy Report Released", <http://www.fas.org/blog/nutshell/2010/11/pcast-federal-energy-policy-report-released/>
The QER is not a new idea. Rather, it is a timescale change
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report, Reliable, Affordable, and Environmentally Sound Energy for America’s Future.

Natty gas

Low prices are causing a manufacturing resurgence – boosting prices destroy the industry

Sebastian 12 (Simone Sebastian - Houston Chronicle,  "Conference drills in on natural gas issues" August 22, 2012 http://www.chron.com/business/article/Conference-drills-in-on-natural-gas-issues-3808515.php)
Speakers at the event also illustrated the dichotomy of opinion between industry sectors that benefit from low fuel prices and natural gas producers - which have struggled as prices fell amid abundant supply and economic conditions that sapped demand.
That price slump has led some producers to call for the government to bolster prices by offering incentives for using natural gas in transportation and other areas.
But Ken Bromfield, Dow Chemical’s North America commercial director, said those policies could be just as detrimental as rules that restrict natural gas production.
Manufacturers have announced expansions in the U.S. to capitalize on the nation’s low-priced natural gas, which fuels plants and is a raw material for some products.
"Manufacturing is back, make no mistake about that, and it’s mostly due to shale gas," Bromfield said. "Policies that artificially accelerate demand ahead of supply, like those that incentivize natural gas vehicles or force the rapid conversion of coal-fired power plants to gas, threaten to hurt this manufacturing renaissance."

That’s key to competitiveness, the economy and national security

Department of Commerce 12 (U.S. Department of Commerce in consultation with the National Economic Council, January 2012, "The Competitiveness and InnovativeCapacity of the United States www.commerce.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2012/january/competes_010511_0.pdf)
A flourishing manufacturing sector in the United States is crucial to its future competitive strength
AND
generation, affects our ability to protect against potentially catastrophic supply chain disruptions.

Tournament: Harvard | Round: 4 | Opponent: MSU HR | Judge: Morris
Advantage 1 is Trade

Scenario 1 is Trade War

Solar barriers spillover internationally and across industries—destroys the economy and causes a new escalating trade war

Tucker 8/27/12, William, work has appeared in Harper’s, the Atlantic Monthly, the American Spectator, the Weekly Standard, National Review, Reason, the New Republic, Reader’s Digest, the Wall Street Journal, and many other publications, "Let’s Just Admit Solar Needs Help and Avoid Trade War", http://www.nucleartownhall.com/blog/william-tucker-let%E2%80%99s-just-admit-solar-needs-help-and-avoid-trade-war/-http://www.nucleartownhall.com/blog/william-tucker-let%E2%80%99s-just-admit-solar-needs-help-and-avoid-trade-war/
Although the newspapers haven’t been paying much attention lately, the United States and China
AND
this will make for good old clean-and-green solar power.

Commerce confirmed the tariff and ensured continued trade war escalation—

McDonald 10/10 Joe is an AP Business Writer, China rejects US solar tariffs as protectionism, www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hllddSR0beXQ-2x8U-0O8dr1A0lA?docId=2f31c25a4c784f95bc62f6678b1f6a63
BEIJING (AP) — China demanded Thursday that Washington repeal steep tariffs on solar panels that Chinese producers fear will shut their equipment out of the American market.
The tariffs upheld Wednesday by the U.S. Commerce Department add to financial pressure on struggling Chinese solar panel manufacturers that are suffering heavy losses due to weak demand and a price-cutting war.
"The United States is inciting trade friction in new energy and sending a negative signal to the whole world about protectionism and obstructing the development of new energy development," Ministry of Commerce spokesman Shen Danyang said in a statement. It gave no indication whether Beijing might retaliate.
"We hope the U.S. side will correct its erroneous action with early termination of the trade remedy measures," Shen said.
The Commerce Department upheld charges of 18 percent to nearly 250 percent on Chinese solar panel producers to counter what it said was improper subsidies by Beijing to the industry. For some companies, charges are lower than preliminary tariffs announced in May.
A spokesman for one of China’s biggest panel producers, Yingli Green Energy Holding Co., said tariffs of about 30 percent imposed on that company would make sales to the United States unprofitable. He said gross profit margins in the solar industry are about 10 percent.
"A tax rate of 30 percent is the same as 200 percent. Both of them mean the door is closed for exporting to the United States," said the spokesman, Wang Shuai. "No one does business to lose money."

Now is key – solar spills over and escalates within months

Bloomberg 9/5 ~Bloomberg News, "China Speeding U.S. Solar-Dumping Case as Election Nears: Energy," http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-05/china-speeding-u-s-solar-dumping-case-as-election-nears-energy.html~~
China is accelerating a dispute with the U.S. over solar-energy
AND
solar projects rose 61 percent to %24137.8 billion last year.

Strategic value of renewables makes this conflict uniquely likely to escalate

Beijing Review 9/3/12 ~Citing Li Chunding, Ph.D. in Economics, research assistant at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, "Frictions over renewable energy," http://www.china.org.cn/business/2012-09/03/content_26410601.htm~~
A month after the United States launched the anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against
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is not likely to make a compromise on trade frictions in this sector.¶ 

US-China trade war escalates to military conflict

Landy 7 ~Ben Landy, Director of Research and Strategy at the Atlantic Media Company, publisher of the Atlantic Monthly, National Journal, and Government Executive magazines.   Landy served in various research and project management positions at the Brookings Institution and Center for Strategic and International Studies, two leading public policy think tanks in Washington, D.C.  Ben holds a bachelor of arts degree from Yale University. April 3, 2007, http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/~~%23comments-http://chinaredux.com/2007/04/03/protectionism-and-war/,)
The greatest threat for the 21st century is that these economic flare-ups between
AND
–far more than increases in military budgets and anti-satellite tests.

Causes nuclear world war 3

Hunkovic 9 – American Military University ~Lee J, 2009, "The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America", http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf~~
A war between China, Taiwan and the United States has the potential to escalate
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outcome, therefore, other countries will not be considered in this study.

Escalated U.S. China trade war results in economic conflicts and devastating protectionism

Wang and Li 11 (Jianhua and Yunlu—Xinhua news agency, citing Ni Feng, Vice President of the Institute of American Studies underthe Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Zhao Jinping, vice director of the Foreign Economic Department of the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council "China-US trade war no good for anyone", October 13, 2011. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90780/7616581.html
A trade war between the United States and China, each of which is the
AND
and will even lead to political and military confrontations in some sensitive regions. 

International protectionism triggers resource wars and terrorism that escalates to nuclear war

Panzner 8—25-year veteran of the markets who has worked for for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and J.P. Morgan Chase. New York Institute of Finance faculty member and a graduate of Columbia University. (Michael, Financial Armageddon, 136-8)
Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of finance and trade will inspire the United
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between Muslims and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.

Economic crisis causes nuclear war

Green and Schrage 9 ~Michael J Green is Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Associate Professor at Georgetown University. Steven P Schrage is the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business and a former senior official with the US Trade Representative’s Office, State Department and Ways %26 Means Committee, "It’s not just the economy,"March 26 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html~~
Facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, analysts at the World Bank
AND
demonstration effect of liberal norms we are urging China to embrace at home.  

Direct connection between poor economic relations and military conflict – most recent studies prove

Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, "Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises," in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict
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such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.

Scenario 2 is Clean Tech

Tariff disputes undermine broader US-China clean-energy cooperation

AP 5/19/12 ~"Ruling adds to China trade tension: POSSIBLE U.S. TARIFFS ON SOLAR-PANEL IMPORTS MAY THREATEN CLEAN ENERGY COOPERATION," http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ruling-adds-to-china-trade-tension/article_c7071e82-78b7-5d95-b943-a8c6e5cc93de.html-http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ruling-adds-to-china-trade-tension/article_c7071e82-78b7-5d95-b943-a8c6e5cc93de.html~~
POSSIBLE U.S. TARIFFS ON SOLAR-PANEL IMPORTS MAY THREATEN CLEAN ENERGY
AND
trade probe have warned China might retaliate against U.S. suppliers.

Clean-energy cooperation causes green-tech diffusion

Lin 11 ~Justin Yifu Lin, Former World Bank Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, "China, the US and clean energy cooperation," Jan 21 2011, http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/china-the-us-and-clean-energy-cooperation~~
Second, there are also major long-term global benefits from clean energy cooperation between the U.S. and China.  Costs of clean energy investment would fall throughout the world, making such investment more financially sustainable.  Clean energy is also a crucial part of providing energy access to better meet basic needs, to enhance growth, and to reduce poverty.
Making clean energy more available and more affordable won’t be easy. It entails making new and improved low-carbon technologies more cost-competitive on a global scale, and supporting developing countries as they strive to expand energy availability. Here, the capacities in both China and the U.S. for innovation and increased diffusion of clean energy technology come to the fore.
Achieving the needed cooperation will take work – in organizing scientific exchanges and shared research ventures, as well as in re-examining national investment and trade policies.
China and U.S. have the means, and I hope the continued will, to take necessary leadership roles in this sphere.  The success of China-U.S. clean energy cooperation could mean a win-win for China, the U.S., and the world.
Such joint efforts could also conserve the planet’s resources and safeguard future generations from the damaging effects of climate change.

Specifically derails the diffusion of solar

Green 11, 12-19, Martin, executive research director at the Photovoltaics Centre of Excellence at the University of New South Wales in Australia, "A Solar Trade War Could Put Us All in the Dark", http://www.technologyreview.com/news/426392/a-solar-trade-war-could-put-us-all-in-the-dark/
The brewing solar trade war between the United States and China sullies what should be
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decades of international innovation and stall the global adoption of advanced solar technology.

This solves global resource wars that escalate globally

Droege 2 ~Peter Droege, Asia Pacific chair of the World Council for Renewable Energy, Professor at the University of Liechtenstein and the University of Newcastle School of Architecture and Built Environment; "Renewable Energy and the City: Urban life in an age of fossil fuel depletion and climate change," 23 Jan 2002, http://enviroscope.iges.or.jp/contents/13/data/PDF/WORD%20Pdf/9-1Droege_peter.pdf~~
While a few local urban systems may seem relatively safe from a terminal fossil fuel
AND
not the only threat to the survivability of the modern global urban system.

The solar issue spills over to all forms of environment cooperation—undermines technical advancement and the Durban platform

Barbier 12 (Edward B—the John S. Bugas Professor of Economics, University of Wyoming, "Can the US and China Cooperate over Climate and Clean Energy?", May 28, 2012, http://chinausfocus.com/energy-environment/can-the-us-and-china-cooperate-over-climate-and-clean-energy/)
One of the few bright spots in recent international negotiations to replace the expiring 1997
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undermines the fragile beginnings of US and China cooperation over global climate change.

Durban is a crucial starting point for emission reductions – now is key

NewScientist 11, "Dangerous decade: What follows the Durban climate deal", 12-13, http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21278-dangerous-decade-what-follows-the-durban-climate-deal.html
Time is running out. However successful the deal felt early on Sunday, the
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close the ambition gap (see diagram), but nations must act now.

Warming is real, anthropogenic and causes extinction

Flournoy 12 — Citing Feng Hsu, PhD NASA Scientist @ the Goddard Space Flight
AND
, Springer Briefs in Space Development, Book, p. 10-11
In the Online Journal of Space Communication , Dr. Feng Hsu, a  NASA
AND
simply too high for us to take any chances" (Hsu 2010 )
Advantage 2 is China 

China is shifting to renewables now—critical for their economy and to assure green tech leadership—the tariff crushes that

Donald 12 – writer for Carbon Brief, MA in International Studies and Diplomacy from the School of Oriental and African Studies @ Cardiff University, specialized in global energy and climate policy (Ros, 8/14/12, "Is China the new green superpower?" http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/08/is-china-the-worlds-new-green-superpower)

China is certainly burning a lot of coal to fuel economic growth which is currently
AND
on coal, China now has one of the world’s leading green industries.

Absent this transition, Chinese growth is structurally unsustainable

Melanie Hart 11, Policy Analyst on China Energy and Climate Policy at the Center for American Progress, "China Arrives in Durban Greener than Ever", 11-30, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/11/china_durban.html
The Chinese depend on imported fossil fuels, particularly coal, for their energy needs
AND
making the economy run more efficiently and developing new forms of renewable energy.¶ 

Renewables change that

CCC 11, Climate Change Challenge.org, "Combating climate change- China’s contribution to the expansion of Africa’s renewable energy sector", October 12, http://www.climatechangechallenge.org/News/Featured-Articles/Combating_climate_change_Chinas_contribution_to_the_expansion_of_Africas_renewable_energy_sector.htm
With US%24 33.8 billion worth of new financial investments, China is
AND
carbon technologies, but which does not curb economic growth in the process.

Pollution independently sends party instability over the brink – causes extinction
Yee and Storey 02
~Herbert Yee, Professor of Politics and IR, Hong Kong Baptist University —AND— Ian Storey, Lecturer in Defence Studies at Deakin, 02
"The China Threat: Perceptions, Myths and Reality," p5~

The fourth factor contributing to the perception of a China threat is the fear of
AND
disintegrating China would also pose a threat to its neighbours and the world.
Specifically, causes nuclear war with Russia
Nankivell 9
~Nathan, Senior Researcher at the Office of the Special Advisor Policy, Canadien Department of National Defence, "China’s Pollution and the Threat to Domestic and Regional Stability", Asia-Pacific Journal, 3-21, http://japanfocus.org/-Nathan-Nankivell/1799~~

Moreover, protests serve as a venue for the politically disaffected who are unhappy with
AND
in full-scale war between two powerful, nuclear-equipped nations.
Extinction
Sharavin, 2001 (Alexander, The Third Threat, What the Papers Say, 10/3, Lexis)

Russia may face the "wonderful" prospect of combating the Chinese army, which
AND
both, and even against the first frost of a possible nuclear winter.

Tariffs put the industry down the tubes

AP 12 Associated Press, 8/22/12, http://business.time.com/2012/08/22/chinese-solar-industry-faces-weak-sales-price-war/-http://business.time.com/2012/08/22/chinese-solar-industry-faces-weak-sales-price-war/
Chinese solar panel makers that grew fast over the past decade are suffering big losses
AND
said the possible anti-dumping measures contributed to "uncertain market conditions." 

Mounting debt means China will not bail out its solar industry

Min 12
~Eric, Morning Whistle, 7/31/12, http://www.morningwhistle.com/html/2012/Company_Industry_0731/213306.html-http://www.morningwhistle.com/html/2012/Company_Industry_0731/213306.html~~

Coup de Grace for a Chinese Tier One? With Balance Sheets at the Breaking
AND
. Even with a White Knight Savior, STP’s (Suntech’s ticker symbol) 

Chinese green tech leadership is key to their economy, internal stability, and solves extinction

Paul Denlinger 10, consultant specializing in the China market who is based in Hong Kong, 7/20/10, "Why China Has To Dominate Green Tech," http://www.forbes.com/sites/china/2010/07/20/why-china-has-to-dominate-green-tech/
On the policy level, the Chinese government has to perform a delicate balancing act
AND
an implicit mandate: it will deliver economic growth to the Chinese people.
This is why the Chinese government has chosen to invest in developing new green energy technology.
The country is very fortunate in that most of the discovered deposits of rare earths
AND
wasteful and highly polluting industries around. Think Chinese coal mining with acid.)
At the same time, Beijing wants to cut back rare earth exports to the
AND
next generation of energy products used by the world for the next century.
That is the plan. It would be like if the oil-producing nations in the 1920s and 1930s said that they didn’t need Western oil exploration firms and refineries to distribute oil products; they would do all the processing themselves, and the Western countries would just order the finished oil products from them. This is how China obviously plans to keep most of the value-added profits within China’s borders.
Before any Western readers snap into "evil Chinese conspiracy to take over the world" mode, it’s worth pointing out that Chinese rare earth experts and government officials have repeatedly warned Western visitors that this policy change would be introduced. Unfortunately, these warnings have gone largely unheeded and ignored by the Western media and politicians who, it seems, have been largely preoccupied by  multiple financial crises and what to do about the West’s debt load.
The debt crisis in the West means that it is very hard for Western green
AND
few, if any western banks who will finance new green energy technologies.
This has opened a window of opportunity for the Chinese government to finance, and
AND
promote and incentivize these new technologies, first in China, then overseas.
Because of China’s growing energy demands, we are in a race for survival.
AND
depend on China’s success to make the transition to green energy this century.
For all practical purposes, we’re all in the same boat.

Cuts to China solar trigger immediate economic and stability collapse

Xinhua 12 China Daily, 9/4/12, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-09/04/content_15731380.htm-http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-09/04/content_15731380.htm~~

Miao Liansheng, chairman of the board of Yingli Green Energy, one of the
AND
the field have made Chinese PV companies competitively stronger in the world market. 

That’s in less than a month

Paretzky 10/20/12 ~Raymond Paretzky, partner in the law firm of McDermott Will %26 Emery LLP, "Commerce Department Announces New Duties on Chinese Solar Panel Imports," The National Law Review, http://www.natlawreview.com/article/commerce-department-announces-new-duties-chinese-solar-panel-imports~~
For the early duty deposit collection to be maintained and the AD/CVD duties
AND
ITC has tentatively scheduled its final determination vote for November 7, 2012.

China’s economic rise is good —- they’re on the brink of collapse —- causes CCP instability and lashout —- also tubes the global economy, US primacy, and Sino relations

Mead 9 Walter Russell Mead, Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, "Only Makes You Stronger," The New Republic, 2/4/9, http://www.tnr.com/story_print.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8
The greatest danger both to U.S.-China relations and to American power
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modernization and change; nobody knows what will happen if the growth stops.

Chinese lashout goes nuclear

The Epoch Times, Renxing San, 8/4/2004, 8/4, http://english.epochtimes.com/news/5-8-4/30931.html
Since the Party’s life is "above all else," it would not be surprising
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now plans to hold one billion people hostage and gamble with their lives.  

Chinese economic decline accesses every impact —- destabilizes Asia and draws multiple states into conflict —- overstretches the US military and crushes an export base for US companies —- threats  to the CCP means they lashout with nukes and biological weapons —- that outweighs and causes extinction
Ochs 2 Richard; Naturalist – Grand Teton National Park with a Masters in Natural Resource Management from Rutgers, "Biological Weapons must be abolished immediately", 6/9 www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html
Of all the weapons of mass destruction, the genetically engineered biological weapons, many
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no known cure or vaccine. Can we imagine hundreds of such plagues?

Lifting restrictions allows china to be cost competitive again

Lan 12 (Xinzhen—Beijing Review, citing Li Chunding, research assistant at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences "Frictions Over Renewable Energy", September 3, 2012, http://www.bjreview.com.cn/business/txt/2012-09/03/content_479581_3.htm)
Because the new energy industry has higher production costs than the fossil fuel industry,
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is a major target, because anti-dumping duties are much higher. 

The U.S. anti-dumping investigations are unreasonable and unfair for the
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little effect on Chinese exports, no matter which country has erected them.