Minnesota » Plutowski-Tripathy Aff

Plutowski-Tripathy Aff

Last modified by LukePlutowski on 2013/03/18 12:51

Cites

#	Date	Entry
	03/18/2013	Oil Aff - JCCC Tournament: \| Round: \| Opponent: \| Judge: Solvency: 1AC Plan: The United States federal government should substantially reduce restrictions on oil production on federal lands. Massive oil development is happening now, which guts their DAs, but more drilling is necessary to move us past energy independence to energy abundance Mills 12 (Mark, member of the advisory council of the McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science at Northwestern University and serves on the board of directors of the Marshall Institute, 7/9/12, “Could the United States Become the World’s Energy-Export Powerhouse?”) http://www.manhattan-institute.org/pdf/press_release_pgi_01.pdf Washington, DC: Technology is ... of becoming a global energy leader. Sufficient resources exist—all we have to do is develop them Mark P. Mills, adjunct fellow, Manhattan Institute, UNLEASHING THE NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY COLOSSUS: HYDROCARBONS CAN FUEL GROWTH AND PROSPERITY, 7—12, p. 5-7. Considering the lightning-rod role ... untapped finds are in California.28 Significant oil production would come online quickly IER 09 (2/11/09, “Offshore Energy Exploration: Myth vs. Fact” Institute for Energy Research) http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2009/02/11/offshore-energy-exploration-myth-vs-fact-2/ Further, while there may be ... a significantly shorter period of time. Economy Adv: 1AC Expanding oil production massively boosts the economy—creates millions of high-wage jobs and huge increases in revenue—oil is coming now but it’s not enough Mark P. Mills, adjunct fellow, Manhattan Institute, UNLEASHING THE NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY COLOSSUS: HYDROCARBONS CAN FUEL GROWTH AND PROSPERITY, 7—12, p. 8-10. We are contemplating hundreds of billions ... accruing to the U.S. Only growth in high-wage job sectors creates demand that can reverse the current trajectory Appelbaum 12 (Eileen, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, 4/10/12, “Low-Wage Jobs to Blame for Slow Economic Recovery” US News) http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/economic-intelligence/2012/04/10/job-polarization-not-to-blame-for-slow-economic-recovery Slower-than-expected employment ... and hamper more robust job growth. No resiliency – we’ve pulled out all the stops – a collapse now triggers a double-dip collapse and depression Chris Isidore, CNN Money, 8/10/11, “Recession 2.0 would hurt worse”, lexis, mnrs The risk of double dip recession ... no policy effort to counteract it. US growth is key to global economic recovery Caploe 09 (David, PhD in International political economy from Princeton, “Focus still on America to lead global recovery,” The Straits Times, 8/2/12) IN THE aftermath of the G ... must certainly help. This crisis began Economic decline causes war – studies prove Royal, Department of Defense Cooperative threat reduction director, 2010 Jedediah, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, p.213-4 Second, on a dyadic level ... security debate and deserves more attention. And those wars go nuclear Kerpen ‘8 National Review Online, October 28, 2008 Phil Kerpen, policy director for Americans for Prosperity From Panic to Depression?, http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OWQ3ZGYzZTQyZGY4ZWFiZWUxNmYwZTJiNWVkMTIxMmU= It’s important that we avoid all ... armed conflicts on an even greater scale Economic growth causes international cooperation which solves war Mead 12 (Walter Russell, James Clarke Chace Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College, 7/18/12, “Energy Revolution 3: The New American Century” The American Interest) http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/07/18/energy-revolution-3-the-new-american-century/ Abundant energy will also promote global ... are relatively optimistic about their prospects. Asia Adv: 1AC Tensions are at an all-time high over access to oil in the South China Sea—miscalculation and conflict are likely Kleine-Ahlbrandt 12 (Stephanie, Beijing-based China and Northeast Asia project director for the International Crisis Group, 7/30/12, “High Stakes in the South China Sea” The Diplomat) http://thediplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2012/07/30/high-stakes-in-the-south-china-sea/ Coverage of the South China Sea ... escalate the dispute to irreversible levels. China will escalate the conflict militarily—ultra-hardliners are gaining sway Lague 12 (David, reporter, 7/25/12, “China's hawks gaining sway in South China sea dispute” Reuters) http://news.yahoo.com/chinas-hawks-gaining-sway-south-china-sea-dispute-210711501.html HONG KONG (Reuters) - ... have to cruise around the world?" U.S. and China will also compete, which escalates to nuclear war – improved US-China relations over the South China Sea are necessary to avert extinction Wittner 11 (Lawrence, Ph.D. in History from Columbia, award-winning foreign policy writer and author, 11/28/11, “COMMENTARY: Is a Nuclear War with China Possible?” Huntington News) http://www.huntingtonnews.net/14446 While nuclear weapons exist, there ... be working to encourage these policies. Plan solves US-China relations and prevents war—by increasing energy abundance worldwide, it eliminates the cause of conflict and reduces nationalism Mead 12 (Walter Russell, James Clarke Chace Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College, 7/18/12, “Energy Revolution 3: The New American Century” The American Interest) http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/07/18/energy-revolution-3-the-new-american-century/ On the whole, a world ... is simply a question of pride. Energy competition will cause great power conflict Darling 10 – Dan Darling is an international military markets analyst with Forecast International Inc., an aerospace and defense research company, “Will the Indian Ocean Become the Next Arena of Great Power Conflict?,” THE FASTER TIMES, 5-4-10. http://www.thefastertimes.com/defensespending/2010/03/24/will-the-indian-ocean-become-the-next-arena-of-great-power-conflict/. LAP As the global balance of power ... a place to start as any.
	03/18/2013	Oil Aff - Econ (Prices) Adv Tournament: \| Round: \| Opponent: \| Judge: Economy Adv: 1AC Contention 2 is the Economy: Oil prices will stay high this year—current production is not enough to change prices Blas 1/1 (Javier, commodities editor for the Financial Time, “Shale revolution will not dent $100 oil” Financial Times) http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7680572a-5030-11e2-a231-00144feab49a.html#axzz2H3L1Rsad Oil prices are set to stay ... said in a note to clients. Recession and food price spikes are coming in 2013 and high oil prices are to blame Tverberg13 (Gail, M. S. from the University of Illinois, Chicago in Mathematics, and Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries, oil expert, 1/8/13, “Why 2013 Will End in a Severe Recession” Oil Price) We have been hearing a lot ... mismatch between government income and expense. Plan sends a signal to oil markets that immediately brings down prices Peter Ferrera, Director, Entitlement and Budget Policy, Heartland Institute, "Obama's War on Oil," AMERICAN SPECTATOR, 5--4--11, http://spectator.org/archives/2011/05/04/obamas-war-on-oil Supply down, prices up. ... will similarly mean lower prices today. Plan massively boosts employment and revenue, driving economic growth Mark P. Mills, fellow, Manhattan Institute, "Jobs in a Ripple-Out Economy Come from Oil, Gas, Coal, and then the Cloud," FORBES, 10--24--12, www.manhattan-institute.org/html/miarticle.htm?id=8673#.UOPIgW_Ad8E The nation stands to gain more ... and are not punitive or obfuscatory. US is key to the global economy Caploe9 (David, PhD in International political economy from Princeton, “Focus still on America to lead global recovery,” The Straits Times, 8/2/12) IN THE aftermath of the G ... though other countries must certainly help. No resiliency—we’ve pulled out all the stops—recession now will trigger a depression Chris Isidore, CNN Money, 8/10/11, “Recession 2.0 would hurt worse”, lexis, mnrs The risk of double dip recession ... no policy effort to counteract it. Economic decline causes war—studies prove Royal, Department of Defense Cooperative threat reduction director, 2010 Jedediah, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, p.213-4 Second, on a dyadic level ... security debate and deserves more attention. Those wars go nuclear Kerpen8 National Review Online, October 28, 2008, Phil Kerpen, policy director for Americans for Prosperity From Panic to Depression? http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OWQ3ZGYzZTQyZGY4ZWFiZWUxNmYwZTJiNWVkMTIxMmU= It’s important that we avoid all ... armed conflicts on an even greater scale
	03/18/2013	Oil Aff - Russia Adv Tournament: \| Round: \| Opponent: \| Judge: Russia instability inevitable now—Putin's fascistoid "cult of the leader" is not sustainable Alexander J. Motyl, Professor, Political Science, Rutgers University-Newark, "Fascistoid Russia: Whither Putin's Brittle Realm?" WORLD AFFAIRS, March/April 2012, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/fascistoid-russia-whither-putin%E2%80%99s-brittle-realm The massive demonstrations that rocked Russia ... already has an obsessive ideological vision. Russia is suffering from Dutch disease—appreciates currency, undermines competitiveness, threatens economic stability Scott Nicholas Romaniuk, Institute of European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies, Carleton University, and Joshua Kenneth Wasylciw, Department of Political Science, University of Calgary, "Russia's Authoritarianism in Strategic Perspective," EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES v. 10 n. 4, 2009, p. 623-624. In lieu of increasing prices for ... military measures that are already visible. Decline in oil production and revenue are inevitable in the status quo without reforms Thane Gustafson, Professor, Government, Georgetown University and Senior Director, IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, "Putin's Petroleum Problem," FOREIGN AFFAIRS, November/December 2012, ASP. In the years since the crisis ... to any decline in oil profits. Lack of reform is stifling oil sector innovation—resource dependence serves as a brake on growth Thane Gustafson, Professor, Government, Georgetown University and Senior Director, IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, "Putin's Petroleum Problem," FOREIGN AFFAIRS, November/December 2012, ASP. Neither Russia's oil industry nor Russian ... choose the status quo than adaptation. Russia oil dependence fuels corruption, undermines democratic development Henry Meyer and Agnes lovasz, "Russia Faces Economy Trap as Oil Decline Looms," BLOOMBERG, 12--14--12, http://www.energytribune.com/he/68090/russia-faces-economy-trap-as-oil-decline-looms-2 “The problem of being a ... needs over the next few years. Corruption crushes economy—deters investment and modernization Erik van der Marel, Fellow, London School fo Economics and IanaDreyer, international trade policy expert, Institut Montaigne, "Beyond Dutch Disease: When Deteriorating Rule of Law Affects Russian Trade in High-Tech Goods and Services with Advanced Economies," Group d.EconomieMondiale (GEM), 7--13--12, p. 2. Despite its booming trade in the ... most notably sophisticated manufactures and services. Makes a collapse inevitable Anders Aslund, senior fellow, Peterson Institute, "An Assessment of Putin's Economic Policy," CESifo FORUM, 7--08, www.iie.com/publications/papers/paper.cfm?ResearchID=974 In 2004, Foreign Affairs published ... contributes to the current inflation crisis. Low prices key to Russian economic reforms and more restrained foreign policy Pirrong 11 (Craig, Professor of Finance, and Energy Markets Director for the Global Energy Management Institute at the Bauer College of Business of the University of Houston, 1/6/11, “Higher Oil Prices Will Stymie Reform in Russia” Seeking Alpha) http://seekingalpha.com/article/245309-higher-oil-prices-will-stymie-reform-in-russia And as Sergei Guriev and AlehTsyvinski ... whiskey and let that cocaine be. No other method works—only in a world of low prices is diversification viable Moiseev 12 (Alexey, special reporter for Russia Now, 7/6/12, “Modernisation is Russia's cure for 'Dutch disease'” The Telegraph) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/russianow/business/9382538/russia-dutch-disease.html Any country trying to diversify will ... through purely administrative or similar measures. Petrodependence fuels Russian aggression and nationalism--diversification key to solve Dr. Ariel Cohen and Dr. Richard Ericson, "Russia's Economic Crisis and U.S.-Russia Relatoins: Troubled Times Ahead," BACKGROUNDER n. 2333, Heritage Foundation, 11--2--09, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2009/11/russias-economic-crisis-and-us-russia-relations-troubled-times-ahead An economic model based on natural ... lack of the rule of law. Nuclear war Dr. Stephen Blank, Research Professor, National Security Affairs, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War college, "Russia and Arms Control: Are There Opportunities for the Obama Administration?" 3--09, www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf Proliferators or nuclear states like China ... neighbors or their own people.172

Date

Entry

03/18/2013

Oil Aff - JCCC

Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
Solvency: 1AC

Plan: The United States federal government should substantially reduce restrictions on oil production on federal lands.

Massive oil development is happening now, which guts their DAs, but more drilling is necessary to move us past energy independence to energy abundance
Mills 12 (Mark, member of the advisory council of the McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science at Northwestern University and serves on the board of directors of the Marshall Institute, 7/9/12, “Could the United States Become the World’s Energy-Export Powerhouse?”) http://www.manhattan-institute.org/pdf/press_release_pgi_01.pdf

Washington, DC: Technology is ... of becoming a global energy leader.

Sufficient resources exist—all we have to do is develop them
Mark P. Mills, adjunct fellow, Manhattan Institute, UNLEASHING THE NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY COLOSSUS: HYDROCARBONS CAN FUEL GROWTH AND PROSPERITY, 7—12, p. 5-7.

Considering the lightning-rod role ... untapped finds are in California.28

Significant oil production would come online quickly
IER 09 (2/11/09, “Offshore Energy Exploration: Myth vs. Fact” Institute for Energy Research) http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2009/02/11/offshore-energy-exploration-myth-vs-fact-2/

Further, while there may be ... a significantly shorter period of time.

Economy Adv: 1AC

Expanding oil production massively boosts the economy—creates millions of high-wage jobs and huge increases in revenue—oil is coming now but it’s not enough
Mark P. Mills, adjunct fellow, Manhattan Institute, UNLEASHING THE NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY COLOSSUS: HYDROCARBONS CAN FUEL GROWTH AND PROSPERITY, 7—12, p. 8-10.

We are contemplating hundreds of billions ... accruing to the U.S.

Only growth in high-wage job sectors creates demand that can reverse the current trajectory
Appelbaum 12 (Eileen, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, 4/10/12, “Low-Wage Jobs to Blame for Slow Economic Recovery” US News) http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/economic-intelligence/2012/04/10/job-polarization-not-to-blame-for-slow-economic-recovery

Slower-than-expected employment ... and hamper more robust job growth.

No resiliency – we’ve pulled out all the stops – a collapse now triggers a double-dip collapse and depression
Chris Isidore, CNN Money, 8/10/11, “Recession 2.0 would hurt worse”, lexis, mnrs

The risk of double dip recession ... no policy effort to counteract it.

US growth is key to global economic recovery
Caploe 09 (David, PhD in International political economy from Princeton, “Focus still on America to lead global recovery,” The Straits Times, 8/2/12)

IN THE aftermath of the G ... must certainly help. This crisis began

Economic decline causes war – studies prove
Royal, Department of Defense Cooperative threat reduction director, 2010 Jedediah, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, p.213-4

Second, on a dyadic level ... security debate and deserves more attention.

And those wars go nuclear
Kerpen ‘8 National Review Online, October 28, 2008 Phil Kerpen, policy director for Americans for Prosperity From Panic to Depression?, http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OWQ3ZGYzZTQyZGY4ZWFiZWUxNmYwZTJiNWVkMTIxMmU=

It’s important that we avoid all ... armed conflicts on an even greater scale

Economic growth causes international cooperation which solves war
Mead 12 (Walter Russell, James Clarke Chace Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College, 7/18/12, “Energy Revolution 3: The New American Century” The American Interest) http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/07/18/energy-revolution-3-the-new-american-century/

Abundant energy will also promote global ... are relatively optimistic about their prospects.

Asia Adv: 1AC

Tensions are at an all-time high over access to oil in the South China Sea—miscalculation and conflict are likely
Kleine-Ahlbrandt 12 (Stephanie, Beijing-based China and Northeast Asia project director for the International Crisis Group, 7/30/12, “High Stakes in the South China Sea” The Diplomat) http://thediplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2012/07/30/high-stakes-in-the-south-china-sea/

Coverage of the South China Sea ... escalate the dispute to irreversible levels.

China will escalate the conflict militarily—ultra-hardliners are gaining sway
Lague 12 (David, reporter, 7/25/12, “China's hawks gaining sway in South China sea dispute” Reuters) http://news.yahoo.com/chinas-hawks-gaining-sway-south-china-sea-dispute-210711501.html

HONG KONG (Reuters) - ... have to cruise around the world?"

U.S. and China will also compete, which escalates to nuclear war – improved US-China relations over the South China Sea are necessary to avert extinction
Wittner 11 (Lawrence, Ph.D. in History from Columbia, award-winning foreign policy writer and author, 11/28/11, “COMMENTARY: Is a Nuclear War with China Possible?” Huntington News) http://www.huntingtonnews.net/14446

While nuclear weapons exist, there ... be working to encourage these policies.

Plan solves US-China relations and prevents war—by increasing energy abundance worldwide, it eliminates the cause of conflict and reduces nationalism
Mead 12 (Walter Russell, James Clarke Chace Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College, 7/18/12, “Energy Revolution 3: The New American Century” The American Interest) http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/07/18/energy-revolution-3-the-new-american-century/

On the whole, a world ... is simply a question of pride.

Energy competition will cause great power conflict
Darling 10 – Dan Darling is an international military markets analyst with Forecast International Inc., an aerospace and defense research company, “Will the Indian Ocean Become the Next Arena of Great Power Conflict?,” THE FASTER TIMES, 5-4-10. http://www.thefastertimes.com/defensespending/2010/03/24/will-the-indian-ocean-become-the-next-arena-of-great-power-conflict/. LAP

As the global balance of power ... a place to start as any.

03/18/2013

Oil Aff - Econ (Prices) Adv

Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
Economy Adv: 1AC

Contention 2 is the Economy:

Oil prices will stay high this year—current production is not enough to change prices
Blas 1/1 (Javier, commodities editor for the Financial Time, “Shale revolution will not dent $100 oil” Financial Times) http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7680572a-5030-11e2-a231-00144feab49a.html#axzz2H3L1Rsad

Oil prices are set to stay ... said in a note to clients.

Recession and food price spikes are coming in 2013 and high oil prices are to blame
Tverberg13 (Gail, M. S. from the University of Illinois, Chicago in Mathematics, and Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries, oil expert, 1/8/13, “Why 2013 Will End in a Severe Recession” Oil Price)

We have been hearing a lot ... mismatch between government income and expense.

Plan sends a signal to oil markets that immediately brings down prices
Peter Ferrera, Director, Entitlement and Budget Policy, Heartland Institute, "Obama's War on Oil," AMERICAN SPECTATOR, 5--4--11, http://spectator.org/archives/2011/05/04/obamas-war-on-oil

Supply down, prices up. ... will similarly mean lower prices today.

Plan massively boosts employment and revenue, driving economic growth
Mark P. Mills, fellow, Manhattan Institute, "Jobs in a Ripple-Out Economy Come from Oil, Gas, Coal, and then the Cloud," FORBES, 10--24--12, www.manhattan-institute.org/html/miarticle.htm?id=8673#.UOPIgW_Ad8E

The nation stands to gain more ... and are not punitive or obfuscatory.

US is key to the global economy
Caploe9 (David, PhD in International political economy from Princeton, “Focus still on America to lead global recovery,” The Straits Times, 8/2/12)

IN THE aftermath of the G ... though other countries must certainly help.

No resiliency—we’ve pulled out all the stops—recession now will trigger a depression
Chris Isidore, CNN Money, 8/10/11, “Recession 2.0 would hurt worse”, lexis, mnrs

The risk of double dip recession ... no policy effort to counteract it.

Economic decline causes war—studies prove
Royal, Department of Defense Cooperative threat reduction director, 2010 Jedediah, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, p.213-4

Second, on a dyadic level ... security debate and deserves more attention.

Those wars go nuclear
Kerpen8 National Review Online, October 28, 2008, Phil Kerpen, policy director for Americans for Prosperity From Panic to Depression? http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OWQ3ZGYzZTQyZGY4ZWFiZWUxNmYwZTJiNWVkMTIxMmU=

It’s important that we avoid all ... armed conflicts on an even greater scale

03/18/2013

Oil Aff - Russia Adv

Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
Russia instability inevitable now—Putin's fascistoid "cult of the leader" is not sustainable
Alexander J. Motyl, Professor, Political Science, Rutgers University-Newark, "Fascistoid Russia: Whither Putin's Brittle Realm?" WORLD AFFAIRS, March/April 2012, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/fascistoid-russia-whither-putin%E2%80%99s-brittle-realm

The massive demonstrations that rocked Russia ... already has an obsessive ideological vision.

Russia is suffering from Dutch disease—appreciates currency, undermines competitiveness, threatens economic stability
Scott Nicholas Romaniuk, Institute of European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies, Carleton University, and Joshua Kenneth Wasylciw, Department of Political Science, University of Calgary, "Russia's Authoritarianism in Strategic Perspective," EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES v. 10 n. 4, 2009, p. 623-624.

In lieu of increasing prices for ... military measures that are already visible.

Decline in oil production and revenue are inevitable in the status quo without reforms
Thane Gustafson, Professor, Government, Georgetown University and Senior Director, IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, "Putin's Petroleum Problem," FOREIGN AFFAIRS, November/December 2012, ASP.

In the years since the crisis ... to any decline in oil profits.

Lack of reform is stifling oil sector innovation—resource dependence serves as a brake on growth
Thane Gustafson, Professor, Government, Georgetown University and Senior Director, IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, "Putin's Petroleum Problem," FOREIGN AFFAIRS, November/December 2012, ASP.

Neither Russia's oil industry nor Russian ... choose the status quo than adaptation.

Russia oil dependence fuels corruption, undermines democratic development
Henry Meyer and Agnes lovasz, "Russia Faces Economy Trap as Oil Decline Looms," BLOOMBERG, 12--14--12, http://www.energytribune.com/he/68090/russia-faces-economy-trap-as-oil-decline-looms-2

“The problem of being a ... needs over the next few years.

Corruption crushes economy—deters investment and modernization
Erik van der Marel, Fellow, London School fo Economics and IanaDreyer, international trade policy expert, Institut Montaigne, "Beyond Dutch Disease: When Deteriorating Rule of Law Affects Russian Trade in High-Tech Goods and Services with Advanced Economies," Group d.EconomieMondiale (GEM), 7--13--12, p. 2.

Despite its booming trade in the ... most notably sophisticated manufactures and services.

Makes a collapse inevitable
Anders Aslund, senior fellow, Peterson Institute, "An Assessment of Putin's Economic Policy," CESifo FORUM, 7--08, www.iie.com/publications/papers/paper.cfm?ResearchID=974

In 2004, Foreign Affairs published ... contributes to the current inflation crisis.

Low prices key to Russian economic reforms and more restrained foreign policy
Pirrong 11 (Craig, Professor of Finance, and Energy Markets Director for the Global Energy Management Institute at the Bauer College of Business of the University of Houston, 1/6/11, “Higher Oil Prices Will Stymie Reform in Russia” Seeking Alpha) http://seekingalpha.com/article/245309-higher-oil-prices-will-stymie-reform-in-russia

And as Sergei Guriev and AlehTsyvinski ... whiskey and let that cocaine be.

No other method works—only in a world of low prices is diversification viable
Moiseev 12 (Alexey, special reporter for Russia Now, 7/6/12, “Modernisation is Russia's cure for 'Dutch disease'” The Telegraph) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/russianow/business/9382538/russia-dutch-disease.html

Any country trying to diversify will ... through purely administrative or similar measures.

Petrodependence fuels Russian aggression and nationalism--diversification key to solve
Dr. Ariel Cohen and Dr. Richard Ericson, "Russia's Economic Crisis and U.S.-Russia Relatoins: Troubled Times Ahead," BACKGROUNDER n. 2333, Heritage Foundation, 11--2--09, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2009/11/russias-economic-crisis-and-us-russia-relations-troubled-times-ahead

An economic model based on natural ... lack of the rule of law.

Nuclear war
Dr. Stephen Blank, Research Professor, National Security Affairs, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War college, "Russia and Arms Control: Are There Opportunities for the Obama Administration?" 3--09, www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf

Proliferators or nuclear states like China ... neighbors or their own people.172