Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge: 

Oil DA

Prices are stable now but a decline collapses Putin’s regime – can’t maintain social spending

Reguly, The Globe And Mail European Business Correspondent, 9-15-12

(Eric, “For Russia, high energy prices a necessity, not a luxury,” http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/european-business/for-russia-high-energy-prices-a-necessity-not-a-luxury/article4546314/?service=mobile, accessed 9-16-12, ads)

The Kremlin … its post-2008 low.

Link

Collapse forces Putin out – causes rampant nationalism

Friedlander, UC Berkley College of Letters and Science, 2009

(Monica, May 13, “Ken Jowitt Offers New Perspective on Russian Politics,” http://www.ias.berkeley.edu/node/351, accessed 8-24-12, ads)

An expert …bad second-best.”

Nuclear war

Irsraelyan, Former Soviet Ambassador, 98

(Victor, diplomat and arms control negotiator, “Russia at the Crossroads,” Lexis, accessed 8-30-12, ads)

The first and … fall down together." n12

Expanding alternatives to oil decreases oil prices.

Strand, Development Research Group Senior Economist, 07

(Jon, May 11, " Technology treaties and fossil-fuels extraction," http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-7309937/Technology-treaties-and-fossil-fuels.html, accessed 9-1-12, ads)

Assume that a … price of fuel.

Policy change is key – markets think production will decrease in the future – plan reverses that

Cross, Kansas Independent Oil and Gas Association President, 12

(Edward, March 29, "Obama has the power to put pressure on gas prices By Edward Cross" www.kansas.com/2012/03/29/2274545/obama-has-the-power-to-put-pressure.html, accessed 9-17-12, ads)

The U.S. cannot … benefit of consumers.

3. US-Russia war is the only scenario for extinction

Bostrom, Oxford philosophy faculty, March 2002

[Nick, “Existential Risks Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards,” Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9,  http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html, mss]

A much greater …humankind’s potential permanently.

4. Even a one percent risk of extinction outweighs any impact or moral imperative

Bostrom, Oxford philosophy professor, July 2005

[Nick, Transcribed by Matt Struth, 4:38-6:12 of the talk at http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/44, accessed 2-2-8,  mss]

Now if we think … a high priority.

5. Unstable Russia forces military posturing causing accidental nuclear launch

Oliker, RAND Associate Political Scientist, and Charlick-Paley, RAND Associate Social Scientist, 02

(Olga, Tanya, RAND, nonprofit global policy think tank, “Assessing Russia's Decline,” www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1442/, d/a 8-27-12, ads)

What challenges …a nuclear/industrial catastrophe.

Accidental nuclear launch causes global nuclear war

Pikaev et al, Non-proliferation and Arms Reduction Center head, 2001

[Alexander Alexeevich, RAS IMEMO PMFC Non-Proliferation and Arms Reduction Center head, Assistant State Duma Deputy, "De-alerting Russian and US nuclear weapons: A path to reducing nuclear dangers," http://www.ieer.org/russian/pubs/dlrtbk-e.html, mss]

The capability of … massive nuclear strikes.

6. Putin will lashout if dissent overwhelms him – causes nuclear war

Weitz, Hudson Institute Senior Fellow, 11

(Richard, November, World Politics Review senior editor, “Can We Manage a Declining Russia?” http://www.aei.org/files/2011/12/08/-can-we-manage-a-declining-russia_152701899417.pdf, accessed 9-20-12, ads)

The cornerstone of … NATO's moralistic foreign policy.

Prices are increasing but it’s tenuous

Sheppard, Daily Star Staff Writer, 9-1-12

(David, “Oil prices rise above $113 per barrel,”http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Business/Middle-East/2012/Sep-01/186321-oil-prices-rise-above-$113-per-barrel.ashx#axzz25d70Eznv, accessed 9-4-12, ads)

Oil prices rose …l watched by traders.

Prices will stay high long-term because of supply concerns – the plan reverses that – best forecasts

Reuters, 8-29-12

(“Analysts raise oil price forecasts for 2012, 2013,” http://www.arabianbusiness.com/analysts-raise-oil-price-forecasts-for-2012-2013-471309.html, accessed 9-17-12, ads)

Analysts have raised … Julian Jessop said.

Tight supply means prices stay high

Cornerstone Analytics, 8-31-12

(Independent research provider offering macro energy research geared towards institutional money managers, “Global Oil Balance to Remain Tight in 2013,” http://www.sustainableamerica.org/blog/global-oil-balance-to-remain-tight-in-2013/, accessed 9-17-12, ads)

The current tightness … (and global) recession.

Nationalism is increasing – only Putin’s leadership solves

Alexandrova, Itar-Tass World Service Staff Writer, 8-16-12

(Lyudmila, “Nationalism is becoming Russia’s ever more acute problem,” http://www.itar-tass.com/en/c39/497816.html, accessed 8-27-12, ads)

Conflicts and inter-… on October 4.

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge: 

Neolib

Aff’s logic of incentives presumes universal rationality and drives for profit-re-entrenches neoliberalism.

Reno, Michigan anthropology PhD, 2011

(Joshua, “Motivated Markets: Instruments and Ideologies of Clean Energy in the United Kingdom”, Cultural Anthropology Volume 26, Issue 3, pages 389–413, August 2011, Wiley, ldg)

To grapple with .. potentially alienating forms.

Allowing market principles to dictate the transition to renewables short circuits it—creates resource wars that only the alt can solve.

Abramsky, former Institute of Advanced Studies in Science, Technology and Society fellow, 2010

(Kolya, Sparking a Worldwide Energy Revolution: Social Struggles in the Transition to a Post-Petrol World, pg 26-7, ldg)

The fact that … international patent regimes.

Globalization makes extinction inevitable- social and environmental factors build positive feedbacks create a cascade of destruction - only massive social reorganization of society can produce sustainable change and save the planet

Ehrenfeld, Rutgers biology professor, 2005

(David, “The Environmental Limits to Globalization”, Conservation Biology Vol. 19 No. 2, ebsco, ldg)

Ehrenfeld ‘5,

The overall environmental …exacerbated by globalization (Ehrenfeld 2003b).

2. Multiple negative vectors.

Haque, Singapore political science professor, 1999

(M. Shamshul, “The Fate of Sustainable Development Under Neo-Liberal Regimes in Developing Countries”, International Political Science Review April 1999 20.2, Sage, ldg)

As discussed above, … consumption of nature.

3. Necessitates systems that are catastrophic for the environment.

Mander, International Forum on Globalizaton, and Retallack, The Ecologist 2002

(Jerry and Simon “Intrinsic Environmental Consequences of Trade-Related Transport,”. Alternatives to Economic Globalization: A Better World is Possible, The International Forum on Globalization, pg 26-7, ldg)

The central … to the model.

Discourse of the commons solves-creates space to challenge neoliberalism

De Angelis, East London political economy professor, 2003

(Massimo, “Reflections on alternatives, commons and communities”, Winter, http://www.commoner.org.uk/deangelis06.pdf, DOA: 7-2-12, ldg)

This movement has … the social fields.

2. Try or die-only way to create a system not centered on profit.

Sachs et al., Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, 2012

(Wolfgang, “Critique of the Green Economy Toward Social and Environmental Equity”, http://boell.org/downloads/Critique_of_the_Green_Economy.pdf, DOA: 6-27-12, ldg)

In all the old …dictate of growth.

Method first key-otherwise alternative modes of knowledge concerning neoliberalism are delegitimized

Gunder et al., Aukland University senior planning lecturer, 2009

(Michael, Planning in Ten Words or Less: A Lacanian Entanglement with Spatial Planning pgs 111-2, ldg)

The hegemonic network, …(Blair and Kumar 1997).

Policy making isn’t grounded in objectivity but cherry picking. Means a residual link takes out the aff because the ideological underpinnings of their knowledge is inaccurate.

Bristow, Cardiff University economic geographer senior lecturer, 2005

(Gillian, “Everyone's a ‘winner’: problematising the discourse of regional competitiveness”, Journal of Economic Geography, June, oxford journals, ldg)

This begs the … national policy elites.

Questioning underlying structure of neoliberalism first is key-otherwise policy analysis is predetermined in favor of the market.

Murphy, Miami sociology professor, 2005

(John, Globalization with a Human Face, pg 11-13, ldg)

Murphy 4

The process of… general improvement.

Exceptionalism DA-policy relevance collapses the public sphere and ensures colonization by elites.

Biswas, Whitman politics professor, 2007

(Shampa, “Empire and Global Public Intellectuals: Reading Edward Said as an International Relations Theorist”, Millennium 36.1, project muse, ldg)

The recent resuscitation …of the vocation.21

3. Try or die for the alternative alone.

De Angelis, East London political economy professor, 2009

(Massimo, “The tragedy of the capitalist commons”, December, http://turbulence.org.uk/turbulence-5/capitalist-commons/, DOA: 7-2-12, ldg)

This platform of management… reproduction of their livelihoods.

4. Outright rejection of neoliberalism is key to solve

Abramsky, former Institute of Advanced Studies in Science, Technology and Society fellow, 2010

(Kolya, Sparking a Worldwide Energy Revolution: Social Struggles in the Transition to a Post-Petrol World, pg 13-14, ldg)

Whether for pragmatic …alternative to capital's.

5. State DA-focus on state involvement in energy production crowds out attempts to create commons.

Muligan, Concordia IR professor, 2010

(Shane, “Energy, Environment, and Security: Critical Links in a Post-Peak World”, Global Environmental Politics; Nov2010, Vol. 10 Issue 4, p79-100, 22p, ebsco, ldg)

A final consideration ..their natural resources. 68  

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge: 

States solve energy policy and create innovation and flexibility

Carley, Graduate Fellow, Center for Sustainable Energy, Environment, and Economic Development, UNC, 10

(Sanya, Graduate Fellow, The Center for Sustainable Energy, Environment, and Economic Development, UNC Chapel Hill, Energy Program Specialist, The Wisconsin Public Utility Institute, 2005-06, “Electricity Diversification, Decentralization, And Decarbonization: The Role Of U.S. State Energy Policy” 2010, https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/record;jsessionid=77C109DBD786C00A749A6D1236696A50?id=uuid%3A4c318329-cbdd-4fd4-b791-90182e820062, accessed 8-13-12, ara)

Have developments in … or generation assets.

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge: 

Counterplan solves warming- natural albedo enhancement and best climate science prove

Ikle, CSIS distinguished scholar, and Wood, Hoover Institute research fellow, 2008

[Fred, undersecretary of defense for policy for President Ronald Reagan and director of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency for Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, and Lowell, "Climatic Engineering," The National Interest, l/n, accessed 9-6-10, mss]

Moreover, climate … volcanic eruption in 1991.

AND- Specific placement and method ensure solvency with no ecological costs- AND don’t evaluate any of their evidence unless its specific our exact mechanism

Crutzen, National Center of Atmospheric Research director and Nobel Prize-winning chemist, 2006

[Paul, "ALBEDO ENHANCEMENT BY STRATOSPHERIC SULFUR INJECTIONS: A CONTRIBUTION TO Resolve a Policy Dilemma," http://www.cogci.dk/news/Crutzen_albedo enhancement_sulfur injections.pdf, accessed 9-3-10, mss]

By far the preferred … significant side effects.

Sea basing solves hegemony – Allows for rapid forward deployment and global deterrence

Perry, 09 (Commander Michael F, US Navy, 6-5, “IMPORTANCE OF SEABASING TO LAND POWER GENERATION”, USAWC PROGRAM RESEARCH. http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA508337andLocation=U2anddoc=GetTRDoc.pdf, CW, accessed on 6/13/11

This study reaches … capabilities cannot match.” 100 

The counterplan solves better – sea basing solves all the internal links

JIC 05 (Joint Integration Concept – military analysts, Seabasing, Version 1.0, 01 August 2005, CW, accessed on 7/30/11)

However, during periods … and enemy occupation.   

Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge: 

Elections

Obama will win but his lead is tenuous

Silver, New York Times statistician and sabermetrician, 9-5-12

(Nate, “Sept. 4: The Simple Case for Why Obama Is the Favorite”, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/05/sept-4-the-simple-case-for-why-obama-is-the-favorite/?utm_source=twitterfeedandutm_medium=twitter, DOA: 9-5-12, ldg)

But if … president’s chances will be tenuous.

Romney’s base is fracturing

AP 8-29-12

(Associated Press, “Analysis: Lagging faith in Romney is GOP challenge”, http://www.kansascity.com/2012/08/29/3785659/analysis-lagging-faith-in-romney.html, DOA: 9-5-12, ldg)

Mitt Romney ..should be concerned.

Obama win-consensus of data and experts

Washington Times 9-3-12

(“Who wins the election? Most in academia predict Obama”,

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/sep/3/who-wins-the-election-most-in-academia-predict-oba/, DOA: 9-5-12, ldg)

Mr. Lichtman, …a likely victory

Convention will begin to consolidate Obama’s momentum

RCP 9-4-12

(Real Clear Politics, “Obama Team Sees Convention as Paving Way to Victory”, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/09/04/obama_sees_convention_as_paving_way_to_victory_115309.html, DOA: 9-5-12, ldg)

In a neck-… the conventions Friday.

Support for renewables gives Romney the economic high ground-that swings the election

Ellis, BuzzFeed contributor, 2012

(John, “Ellis: Romney's Answer To "Forward" Is "Brown Energy”, 5-1, http://www.buzzfeed.com/johnellis/ellis-romneys-answer-to-forward-is-brown-e-5krk, DOA: 9-1-12, ldg)

Therein lies Mitt … Romney will win.

Focus on renewables backfires-Solyndra and little portfolio impact

Styles, GSW Strategy Group managing director, 2011

(Geoffrey, “Will Energy Determine the 2012 Election?”, 11-8, http://theenergycollective.com/geoffrey-styles/68740/will-energy-determine-2012-election, DOA: 9-1-12, ldg)

From day one, … other 97%.

Oil lobbies will control the spin-only a risk of a link.

Leber, Think Progress reporter, 2012

(Rebecca, “Pro-Oil Outside Groups Spend More Than $16 Million On Energy Attack Ads Since January”, 4-12, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/12/455578/pro-oil-outside-groups-spend-more-than-16-million-on-energy-attack-ads-since-january/, DOA: 9-1-12, ldg)

A handful …oil’s profits first

Romney will label China a manipulator-it is not saber rattling.

Shobert, Rubicon Strategy Group managing director, 2012

(Benjamin, “Romney lays ground for China trade war”, 2-22, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/NB22Cb01.html, DOA: 9-1-12, ldg)

It is a temptation … manipulator is noteworthy.

That collapses the CCP, Asian and global economy and relations

Yong, Peking International Studies professor, 2010

(Wang, “Avoiding a US-China Currency War: The Need for Rational Calculation”, 4-11, http://www.globalasia.org/Global_Asia_Forum/Avoiding_a_US-China_Currency_War.html?PHPSESSID=bca9831415838b4e550935c256837bf7, DOA; 8-28-12, ldg)

While the … exchange rate issue.

Asia collapse goes nuclear.

Auslin, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, 2009

(Michael, “Averting Disaster Preventing the worst case scenario in Asia”, 2-5, http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/016/115jtnqw.asp?page=2, ldg)

 AS THEY DEAL WITH a … systems in the past.  

2. Magnitude-Alliances means the US gets draw in-only true scenario for global conflict

Ogura and Oh, Toyama University Political Economy Professor and West England University Bristol Business School International Business Senior Lecturer, 1997

[Toshimaru and Ingyu, April, “Nuclear clouds over the Korean peninsula and Japan,” http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1132/is_n11_v48/ai_19693242/?tag=content;col1, DOA: 9-4-12, ldg)

North Korea, South Korea, … a global conflagration.

3. Triggers internal Chinese instability-causes WMD lash out

Renxing, Epoch Times staff, 2005

(San, "The CCP’s Last-ditch Gamble: Biological and Nuclear War," Epoch Times, 8-5, http://www.theepochtimes.com/news/5-8-5/30931.html, DOA: 9-4-12)

Since the Party’s .. with their lives.

4. Collapses relations-that turns all global problems

Cohen et al., former secretary of defense, 2009

(William, “Smart Power in U.S.-China Relations”, March, http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090309_mcgiffert_uschinasmartpower_web.pdf, DOA: 9-4-12, ldg)

The evolution …between the two countries.

Romney will do it-appeals to the base and distinguishes him from Obama

Roarty, National Journal politics writer, 2012

(Alex, “The Risks of Romney's Anti-China Rhetoric”, 2-21, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/02/the-risks-of-romneys-anti-china-rhetoric/253362/, DOA: 8-29-12, ldg)

Unless China changes …direction, he said.

The GOP guarantees Romney will be conservative and will drive his agenda

Weisman et al., Contra Costa Times, 2012

(Jonathan, “GOP in Congress would obstruct Romney shift to center”, http://www.contracostatimes.com/news/ci_20405073/gop-congress-would-obstruct-romney-shift-center)

If Mitt … leverage with them.