Massarelli -Stolfer Aff

Observation One - Inherency
Political will prevents thorium nuclear reactors from getting off the ground
Martin 5/08/2012 (Richard, Award-winning science and technology journalist; contributing editor for Wired, Time, Fortune, The Atlantic, the Asian Wall Street Journal, Martin's December, 2009 Wired story on thorium catalyzed the thorium power revival. Educated at Yale and the University of Hong Kong, SuperFuel: Thorium, the Green Energy Source for the Future (Macsci  227-228).

Finally, and most obviously, the energy companies are not bankrupt. …challenge of the twenty-first century. Plus, we invented liquid-fuel thorium reactors.

Observation Two – Our Methodology

The Berkeley Earth Project’s report indicates that anthropogenic CO2 is the driving force of global warming since the 1800s. Even skeptics can’t disprove their findings
Drum, 2012 (Kevin, “Berkeley Earth Project Says Carbon Dioxide is Causing Global Warming,” Mother Jones, July 30, 2012 MG)
I promised to link to Richard Muller's latest climate change paper from the Berkeley …up with the same result: Global warming is real and human activity causes it.

Warming is the fault of people – even if other factors are bigger we threw it out of sync. The biggest future threat is ongoing use of fossil fuels. Need to reduce global CO2 output by more than 6% annually to solve the crisis.
Hansen et. Al, 2012 (James, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute, and Pushker Kharechaa, Makiko Satoa, Frank Ackermanb, Paul J. Heartyc, Ove Hoegh-Guldbergd, Shi-Ling Hsue, Fred Kruegerf, Camille Parmesang, Stefan Rahmstorfh, Johan Rockstromi, Eelco J. Rohlingj, Jeffrey Sachsk, Pete Smithl, Konrad Steffenm, Lise Van Susterenn, Karina von Schuckmanno, James C. Zachosp; “Scientific Case for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change to Protect Young People and Nature,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, March 23, 2012, http://arxiv.org/abs/1110.1365v3 MG) 

 Humanity is now the dominant force driving changes of Earth's … reforestation program, essentially restoring biospheric carbon content to its natural level.
Earth’s energy imbalance key test – no models needed, can calculate precisely the impact CO2 has on warming.
Hansen et. Al, 2012 (James, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute, and Pushker Kharechaa, Makiko Satoa, Frank Ackermanb, Paul J. Heartyc, Ove Hoegh-Guldbergd, Shi-Ling Hsue, Fred Kruegerf, Camille Parmesang, Stefan Rahmstorfh, Johan Rockstromi, Eelco J. Rohlingj, Jeffrey Sachsk, Pete Smithl, Konrad Steffenm, Lise Van Susterenn, Karina von Schuckmanno, James C. Zachosp; “Scientific Case for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change to Protect Young People and Nature,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, March 23, 2012, http://arxiv.org/abs/1110.1365v3 MG) 

At a time of climate stability, Earth radiates as much energy …imbalance averaged over the solar cycle is estimated to be +0.75 ±0.25 W/m2 (33).
Claims that the Earth is cooling don’t disprove the warming thesis. This is also direct evidence that humans are able to affect the climate.
Estrada et al, 2012 (Francisco, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, and Pierre Perron and Benjamín Martínez, both of Department of Economics, Boston University; “Statistical evidence about human influence on the climate system,” Working Papers Series number WP2012-012, January 2012 MG)

The causes of a slowdown in warming since the late 1990s …that humankind cannot affect the climate system, is shown to have a direct human origin.

It’s not too late – even if emissions peak in 2014 it’s possible to stabilize the climate longterm
Huntingford et al, 2012 (Chris, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, and Jason A Lowe, Laila K Gohar, Niel H A Bowerman, Myles R Allen, Sarah C B Raper and Stephen M Smith; “The link between a global 2C warming threshold and emissions in years 2020, 2050 and beyond,” Environmental Research Letters, March 26, 2012 MG)

We relate year 2020 and 2050 emissions to attributes of potential future emissions … and others note the continuing strong correlation between global domestic product (GDP) and emissions.
We have survived the ‘Great Recession,’ we routinely have political gaffs with our allies and enemies, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have seen our ability to project power wax and wane. You should be skeptical of alarmist scenarios of immanent threats.
Kurasawa 4 (Fuyuki, Assistant Prof. of Sociology @ York University) Cautionary Tales, Constellations Vol. 11, No. 4, Blackwell Synergy.

Up to this point, I have tried to demonstrate that transnational socio-political relations … concepts are particularly well suited to grounding these tasks: the precautionary principle and global justice.

Observation Three – The Stakes

Paleoclimate data indicates that the tipping point is around a 2°C increase. That’s when feedbacks like methane hydrates and ice sheets kick in causing dangerous warming.
Hansen et. Al, 2012 (James, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute, and Pushker Kharechaa, Makiko Satoa, Frank Ackermanb, Paul J. Heartyc, Ove Hoegh-Guldbergd, Shi-Ling Hsue, Fred Kruegerf, Camille Parmesang, Stefan Rahmstorfh, Johan Rockstromi, Eelco J. Rohlingj, Jeffrey Sachsk, Pete Smithl, Konrad Steffenm, Lise Van Susterenn, Karina von Schuckmanno, James C. Zachosp; “Scientific Case for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change to Protect Young People and Nature,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, March 23, 2012, http://arxiv.org/abs/1110.1365v3 MG) 

Dangerous Global Warming. Tipping points help define the dangerous level of global warming… to a very different planet with both foreseeable and unforeseen consequences.

Runaway warming causes extinction.
Oliver Tickell, British journalist, author and campaigner on health and environment issues, and author of the Kyoto2 climate initiative, 8/11/2008, “On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction,” The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange
We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming, … than carbon dioxide over 20 years – captured under melting permafrost is already under way.

History and studies show an increase in temperature will result in devastating war, revolts, famines, and invasions
The Futurist, 2008 (Climate Changes and Global Conflicts, Vol. 42 Issue 2, p 6-7
Traumatic climate cooling may have launched wars in the past, like … instances of starvation and probably more cases of hungry people clashing over scarce food and water.

Warming is a force multiplier - makes all political problems worse
Scheffran et al, May 2012 (Jurgen, Research Group Climate Change and Security, Institute of Geography and KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg; and Michael Brzoska, Jasmin Kominek, P. Michael Link, Janpeter Schilling; “Climate Change and Violent Conflict,” Science, May 2012)

Since the 1990s, there has been an extensive scientific debate on how the scarcity of natural resources …“tipping points” toward societal instability and an increased likelihood of violent conflict (37).

Warming devastates every ecosystem on the planet – risks die-off of up to 52% of all species.
Hansen et. Al, 2012 (James, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute, and Pushker Kharechaa, Makiko Satoa, Frank Ackermanb, Paul J. Heartyc, Ove Hoegh-Guldbergd, Shi-Ling Hsue, Fred Kruegerf, Camille Parmesang, Stefan Rahmstorfh, Johan Rockstromi, Eelco J. Rohlingj, Jeffrey Sachsk, Pete Smithl, Konrad Steffenm, Lise Van Susterenn, Karina von Schuckmanno, James C. Zachosp; “Scientific Case for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change to Protect Young People and Nature,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, March 23, 2012, http://arxiv.org/abs/1110.1365v3 MG) 

Extermination of Species. Biodiversity is affected by many agents including overharvesting… we will leave a more desolate planet for our children, grandchildren, and more generations than we can imagine.

Species loss risks extinction
Paul Warner, American University, Dept of International Politics and Foreign Policy, August, Politics and Life Sciences, 1994, p 177
Massive extinction of species is dangerous, then, because …species is like playing Russian roulette, with our collective future as the stakes.

Whatever positive aspect of global warming are present, they are vastly outwieghed by the negative impacts: heatwaves, crop shortages, decreased water availability, and an increased rate of warming.
Lau, 2007 (Dr Evan, Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology at Harvard University,
“Humans the major cause of global warming the widely accepted view,” Straits Times, April 20, 2007)

While it is true that global warming may increase arable land…, in major part, if not entirely, the cause of global warming.

Plan: The United States federal government should remove the National Regulatory Commission restriction of thorium power and increase financial incentives for Thorium energy production in the amount of 1 Billion dollars immediately and 5 billion dollars in 2017.
Observation Four – Solvency
Only Thorium is able to combat global warming – Traditional nuclear power is too unsafe and renewables can’t produce enough energy to shift away from fossil fuels.
Martin 5/08/2012 (Richard, Award-winning science and technology journalist; contributing editor for Wired, Time, Fortune, The Atlantic, the Asian Wall Street Journal, Martin's December, 2009 Wired story on thorium catalyzed the thorium power revival. Educated at Yale and the University of Hong Kong, SuperFuel: Thorium, the Green Energy Source for the Future (Macsci  13-14).

Thorium could provide a clean and effectively limitless source of power …fuels in time to avert this disastrous scenario. Unfortunately, those hopes are illusory.  

The world is looking to the US for a first action against climate change
Council on Foreign Relations 2012 (The Global Climate Change Regime Publisher Council on Foreign Relations Release Date Last Updated: July 5, 2012 http://www.cfr.org/climate-change/global-climate-change-regime/p21831#p3)

Opponents argue that the rest of the world is looking to the United States … a carbon tax orientated legislation in another Annex I country, Australia, as evidence to support their position.

For a thorium economy we need some funding, some liscensing, and some reactors
Martin 2012 (Richard, Award-winning science and technology journalist; contributing editor for Wired, Time, Fortune, The Atlantic, the Asian Wall Street Journal, Martin's December, 2009 Wired story on thorium catalyzed the thorium power revival. Educated at Yale and the University of Hong Kong, SuperFuel: Thorium, the Green Energy Source for the Future (Macsci  235-7).

These are ambitious goals. What, then, must we do to pull them off? To create a thorium energy economy … do it, it will be because we chose not to—not because it was impossible. 

Other reactors can be easily retrofitted to be fueled by thorium
Beedie 07 (Mitch, authority on energy policies with articles in Financial Director, Accountancy Age, Professional Engineering, Process Engineering, Chemical Processing Technology and Hydrocarbon Processing; European editor of Electronic Design and of Semiconductor Manufacturing Magazine “Thorium: Cleaner Nuclear Power?” August 10, 2007 http://www.power-technology.com/features/feature1141/)

In the US, companies such as Thorium Power, which has done … high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HT+Rs and HTGRs) and even advanced-breeder molten salt reactors.

Thorium is vastly superior to solar, wind, geothermal, and fusion – funding solves delay or difficulty
Sorenson, 2011 (Kirk, nuclear technologist, spent much of his career researching the potential of thorium fission reactors, founded a company, Flibe energy, 7-4-11, “Could thorium solve the world’s energy problems [interview with Sander Olsen],” http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/07/could-thorium-solve-worlds-energy.html)

Question: How has the mainstream nuclear community reacted to the concept of thorium LFTRs? … it wouldn't be long before thorium reactors provide all of the earth's energy needs.

Thorium can solve the world’s problems
Hargraves, 8/16/2012. Robert, teaches energy policy at Dartmouth ILEAD.  AB in Mathematics, Ph.D in Physics. Thorium: Energy cheaper than Coal.Page 400

We can solve our global energy and environmental crises through technology innovation Foster a sustainable world population…Use inexhaustible thorium fuel, available in all nations

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