Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge: 

THE FRACKING AFF

C1- Inherency

Hydraulic Fracturing is the main type of fracturing used by gas companies in the US

Goldman 11

Goldman, Michael. "Drilling into Hydraulic Fracturing and Shale Gas Development: A Texas Environmental Perspective" ALI-ABA October 18, 2011. 

Hydraulic fracturing is used by gas producers to stimulate wells and recover natural gas from
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about potential impacts on drinking water resources, public health, and the environment

Regulators need to promote alternative forms of fracking to offset costs and wastes

Rozell 12

Rozell, Daniel J. and Reaven, Sheldon J. "Water Pollution Risk Associated with Natural Gas Extraction from the Marcellus Shale" Risk Analysis, Vol. 32, No. 8, 2012. 

Regulators have recently moved to control the surface disposal of hydraulic fracturing wastewater more stringently
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CO2,(67) and even liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).(68)

Creates massive delays for conventional fracking.

Platts 12 Proposed BLM fracking rule has no scientific basis: IECA Houston (Platts)—18Jun2012 http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/NaturalGas/6394906
Cicio told Platts that he worried that the imposition of additional regulations on the production
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states have voiced their objections to the proposed new federal regulation of fracking.

Plan Text: The United States federal government should exempt Carbon Dioxide Fracturing from restrictions promulgated under Regulation Identifier Number 1004-AE26.

Advantage 1- Hydraulic Fracking

Hydraulic fracking pollutes groundwater and destroy the ecosystem

Bishop 11 ("Chemical and Biological Risk Assessment for Natural Gas Extraction in New York" Ronald E. Bishop, Ph.D., CHO Chemistry %26 Biochemistry Department State University of New York, College at Oneonta March 28, 2011, http://www.sustainableotsego.org/Risk%20Assessment%20Natural%20Gas%20Extraction-1.htm)

Over the last decade, operators in the natural gas industry have developed highly sophisticated
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the objective is to evaluate risk related to the industry as a whole.

This kills the ecosystem through methane leaks and groundwater contamination

Bishop 11 ("Chemical and Biological Risk Assessment for Natural Gas Extraction in New York" Ronald E. Bishop, Ph.D., CHO Chemistry %26 Biochemistry Department State University of New York, College at Oneonta March 28, 2011, http://www.sustainableotsego.org/Risk%20Assessment%20Natural%20Gas%20Extraction-1.htm)

As stated above, the working hypothesis for this risk assessment is that future impacts
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GWPC maintains lower standards for public safety and health than these other evaluators.

Ecosystem decline and species loss risk extinction

Warner 94 (Paul Warner, American University, Dept of International Politics and Foreign Policy, August, Politics and Life Sciences, 1994, p 177)

Massive extinction of species is dangerous, then, because one cannot predict which species
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is like playing Russian roulette, with our collective future as the stakes.

Advantage 2- Economy

Scenario 1 is competitveness

Natural gas boosts industry and competitiveness—key to the econ

Jasinowski 12
 (Jerry, National Association of Manufacturers president for 14 years, "Natural Gas — True Game Changer," Huffington Post, 4-18-12, www.huffingtonpost.com/jerry-jasinowski/natural-gas-true-game-cha_b_1433933.html?utm_source=feedburner%26utm_medium=feed%26utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HP%2FBusiness+%28Business+on+The+Huffington+Post%29, accessed 5-28-12, mss)

The precipitous decline of natural gas prices — to less than %242 per 1
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gas in our country will boost economic growth for many years to come.

US crisis tanks the global economy

RAHMAN ’11 - former Ambassador and Chairman of the Centre for Foreign Affairs Studies. (Ashfaqur . "Another global recession?". August 21. http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=199461)

Several developments, especially in Europe and the US, fan this fear. First
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we may be in a new double dip or W-shaped recession. 

Economic collapse causes nuclear war

Merlini 11
~Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and
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World?’, Survival, 53:2, 117 – 130~
Two neatly opposed scenarios for the future of the world order illustrate the range of
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theocratic absolutes, competing or converging with secular absolutes such as unbridled nationalism.

Scenario 2 is the US Dollar

Natural gas development lets the U.S. close the trade deficit and strengthen the dollar

Holland 12
 ~Kelley Holland, Currency Blogger at CNBC, "How Natural Gas Helps the Dollar", Money in Motion, CNBC, 4-4-2012, http://www.cnbc.com/id/46955130-http://www.cnbc.com/id/46955130~~
The dollar stands to gain from exports of petroleum products, these strategists say.
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be part of a broader improvement in the fundamental backdrop for the USD."

Strong U.S. dollar is critical to U.S. growth

Drabier 11
~John, visiting professor of finance, Strong dollar is good for the U.S. economy, San Antonio Business Journal, 12-23-2011, http://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/print-edition/2011/12/23/strong-dollar-is-good-for-the-us.html?page=all~~**
Strange as it may seem, conventional economics 101 may not currently work for the
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new U.S. jobs if the regulatory environment uncertainty is reduced.
Second, since its arrival, the Euro has served as an alternative to the
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. Reduced input prices lead to increased output demand, jobs and income.

Advantage 3- Warming

Warming is real and anthropogenic - Prefer scientific consensus to their hack deniers

Lewandowsky and Ashley ’11 (Stephan Lewandowsky, Professor of Cognitive Studies at the University of Western Australia, and Michael Ashley, Professor of Astrophysics at the University of New South Wales, June 24, 2011, "The false, the confused and the mendacious: how the media gets it wrong on climate change," http://goo.gl/u3nOC)

But despite these complexities, some aspects of climate science are thoroughly settled. We
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the 19th century, pre-dating even Sherlock Holmes and Queen Victoria.

Renewables key to solve warming long-term but bridge tech is key in the interim

Nordhaus and Shellenberger ’12 (Ted Nordhaus, energy analyst and chairman of the Breakthrough Institute, and Michael Shellenberger, energy analyst, author and president of the Breakthrough Institute, February 27, 2012, "Beyond Cap and Trade, A New Path to Clean Energy," Yale Environment 360, http://goo.gl/dtQf4)

A funny thing happened while environmentalists were trying and failing to cap carbon emissions in
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fossil fuels. There simply is no substitute for making clean energy cheap. 

Fracking solves- Low gas prices spur the transition to natural gas

Worstall ’12 (Tim Worstall, Fellow at the Adam Smith Institute in London, May 5, 2012, "Why Shale Gas is Closing Coal Plants: So Why Do the Hippies Hate Shale?," Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/05/05/why-shale-gas-is-closing-coal-plants-so-why-do-the-hippies-hate-shale/)

The shale gas revolution is doing a lot more than just making renewables seem more
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losses in both cases but gas seems to have lower such as well.

CO2 Fracking solves global warming and aids the environment

Rogala 12

ROGALA, Andrzej. KRZYSIEK, Jan. BERNACIAK, Maciej. HUPKA, Jan. "NON-AQUEOUS FRACTURING TECHNOLOGIES FOR SHALE GAS RECOVERY" Physicochemical Problems
of Mineral Processing July 27, 2012. 

Fracturing with carbon dioxide is a method patented in the early 80’s (Bullen and
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the former Soviet Union in late eighties (Luk and Grisdale, 1994).

US environmental leadership is key to creating global action

Ivanova and Esty, 2008

Maria Ivanova, PhD,  Assistant Professor at McCormack Graduate School, Director of the Global Environmental Governance Project and Daniel C. Esty, Professor of Environmental Law and Policy at Yale Law School "Reclaiming U.S. Leadership in Global Environmental Governance", Summer-Fall 2008, SAIS Review vol. XXVII no. 2, accessed July 5, 2012 from http://www.umb.edu/editor_uploads/images/centers_institutes/center_governance_sustain/Ivanova-Esty-SAISReview-2008.pdf-http://www.umb.edu/editor_uploads/images/centers_institutes/center_governance_sustain/Ivanova-Esty-SAISReview-2008.pdf 

We contend, moreover, that not only is U.S. participation critical
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impact is significant."4 Little progress is made without the United States. 

Worst-case warming results in extinction

Ahmed 2010 (Nafeez Ahmed, Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research and Development, professor of International Relations and globalization at Brunel University and the University of Sussex, Spring/Summer 2010, "Globalizing Insecurity: The Convergence of Interdependent Ecological, Energy, and Economic Crises," Spotlight on Security, Volume 5, Issue 2, online)
Perhaps the most notorious indicator is anthropogenic global warmings warming. The landmark 2007 Fourth
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– a situation endangering the survival of all life on earth.~xi~

No adaption to worst case, extinction is inevitable

Tickell 8 (Oliver, Environmental Researcher, The Guardian, August 11, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange-http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange, JMB, accessed 6-23-11)
We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming, Bob Watson told
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the warming caused by human emissions could propel us towards a similar hothouse Earth 

Increased CO2 causes ocean acidification

Venkataramanan and smitha ’11(Department of Economics, D.G. Vaishnav College, Chennai, India Indian Journal of Science "Causes and effects of global warming p.226-229 March 2011 http://www.indjst.org/archive/vol.4.issue.3/mar11-pages159-265.pdf-http://www.indjst.org/archive/vol.4.issue.3/mar11-pages159-265.pdf)
Causes of global warming: The buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, mainly
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As carbon sinks fail, the amount of carbon in the atmosphere climbs%21

Ocean acidification will cause extinction

Romm 2012 (Joe Romm, Fellow at American Progress and is the editor of Climate Progress, March 2, 2012, "Science: Ocean Acidifying So Fast It Threatens Humanity’s Ability to Feed Itself," http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/03/02/436193/science-ocean-acidifying-so-fast-it-threatens-humanity-ability-to-feed-itself/)
The world’s oceans may be turning acidic faster today from human carbon emissions than they
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seafood" are poised to expand and "remain for thousands of years."

Advantage 4- Russia

Higher U.S. gas production solves Russian energy imperialism—gives alternatives to Europe

Baker Institute 11

• • ~James A. Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, "Shale Gas and U.S. National Security", Report ~%2349, 10-2011, http://www.bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-PolicyReport49.pdf-http://www.bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-PolicyReport49.pdf~~
    The dramatic lessening of Europe’s dependence on Russian gas will likely have considerable geopolitical implications
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    and other international initiatives that might not have the full support of Russia.

Russian imperialism makes war with the U.S. inevitable

Blank ’7 (Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, "Russian Democracy, Revisited" Spring, http://www.securityaffairs.org/issues/2007/12/blank.php-http://www.securityaffairs.org/issues/2007/12/blank.php) Bankey
Gvosdev defends his brand of realism as a moral policy based on prudential calculations that
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very well succumb to imperial temptation, at the cost of international catastrophe.

Escalates to global nuclear war

Yesin 2007 (Colonel General Vladimir Senior Vice President of the Russian Academy of the Problems of Security, Defense, and Law. "Will America Fight Russia?;". Defense and Security, No 78. LN  July 2007)
Yesin: Should the Russian-American war begin, it will inevitably deteriorate into the Third World War. The United States is a NATO member and this bloc believes in collective security. In fact, collective security is what it is about.  Vladimirov: This war will inevitably deteriorate into a nuclear conflict. Regardless of what weapons will be used in the first phase.

Solvency

More than 57 million acres of available federal minerals land under the control of the BLM.

NRDC 9/10/12 Letter to Mike Pool Acting Director U.S. Department of the Interior, Director (630) Bureau of Land Management Re: Comments on Proposed Rule on Oil and Gas; Well Stimulation, Including Hydraulic Fracturing, on Federal and State Lands
In addition to public lands that belong to all Americans and Indian lands that must
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mile of potential federal oil and gas leases in these six western states.

Lifting access restrictions on federal lands solves

Griles 3 (Lisa, Deputy Secretary – Department of the Interior, "Energy Production on Federal Lands," Hearing before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate, 4-30)
Mr. GRILES. America’s public lands have an abundant opportunity for exploration and development
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of right-of-way permits for both pipelines and electric transmission.

====New BLM regulations on fracking on federal lands will block conventional fracking. ====

Christopher Rockers, 12 CEO of Magna Energy Services, Testimony on "Federal Regulation: Economic job and energy security implications of federal hydraulic fracturing regulation" April 26, 2012 http://naturalresources.house.gov/uploadedfiles/rockerstestimony05.02.12.pdf-http://naturalresources.house.gov/uploadedfiles/rockerstestimony05.02.12.pdf
We support President Obama’s "all of the above" energy strategy disclosed in the
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death knell for oil and gas development on federal lands of the Rockies. 

Bureau of Land Management regulations are critical they are the leader in developing safe gas protocols

Briana Mordick 9/12/12 BLM Proposed Fracking Rules Don’t Go Far Enough to Protect the Environment and Human Health
http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/bmordick/blm_proposed_fracking_rules_do.html
BLM is the agency responsible for regulating oil and gas development on more than 700
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wildlands, and human health posed by modern oil and gas extraction practices.

Random Cards

Natural gas shift solves climate

Chazan 12
~Guy, Financial Times energy reporter
, "Shale Gas Boom Helps Slash US Emissions," Financial Times, 5-23-12, www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3aa19200-a4eb-11e1-b421-00144feabdc0.html~%23axzz1wD42vVtp, accessed 5-28-12, mss~
The shale gas boom has led to a big drop in US carbon emissions,
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fired plant produces half the CO2 emissions of a coal-fired one.

Shift to gas from coal now- solves climate

Mead, 12 — Bard College James Clarke Chace Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities
(Walter Russell,  American Interest editor-at-large, "Frack to Save the Planet?,"5-24-12,  Via Meadia, blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/05/24/frack-to-save-the-planet/, accessed 5-28-12, mss)

Frack to Save the Planet? With the hopes for a comprehensive global carbon treaty
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rest of us will enjoy our cheaper, greener energy. Frack away%21

And, it solves fuel transport emissions

Birol et al. 12
(Fatih, "Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas," IEA report designed and directed by Fatih Birol, 2012, www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2012/goldenrules/WEO2012_GoldenRulesReport.pdf, accessed 6-2-12, mss)
One advantage attributable to expanded unconventional gas production and use over production and use of conventional gas is the distance to market; in general, unconventional resources are developed closer to the point of consumption, thereby reducing the distance required for transportation. All else being equal, this tends to reduce the level of fugitive emissions, as well as CO2 emissions from the energy used for transportation.

Increased natural gas production is the only way to sustainably transition to a renewable-fueled future

Sutherland ’11 (Timothy F. Sutherland, Pace Global Energy Services, March 17, 2011, "Building a Clean and Reliable Energy Future: Natural Gas and Renewable Energy," National Geographic, http://goo.gl/UYSGS)

Natural Gas and Renewable Energy – Complementary Power Supply Options The alignment of natural gas
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and put the "Made in America" stamp back in global prominence.

Natural gas solves renewables- (1) Baseload, (2) Cost competitiveness, (3) Scalability, (4) Flexibility

Huber 2011 (Jacob Huber, energy analyst at the Energy Delta Institute, June 2011, "A Role for Natural Gas in the Pragmatic Transition to a Sustainable Energy System," Energy Delta Institute, EDI Quarterly, Volume 3, Number 2, online)

At any point in history, the constraints of most thinking are defined by a
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the provision of a sustainable energy supply for the continued advancement of humanity.

Dry Fracking produces more natural gas and is more cost effective than Hydro Fracking

Kargbo, David M. Wilhelm, Ron G. Campbell, David J. "Natural Gas Plays in the Marcellus
Shale: Challenges and Potential Opportunities" ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE %26 TECHNOLOGY. VOL. 44, NO. 15, 2010

One of the most effective methods of reducing exposure to contaminated wastewater is to implement
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the Marcellus Shale region may want to seriously consider using this innovative technology.

Answers

A2 Warming

Warming is real and anthropogenic- Overwhelming consensus concludes aff

Rahmstorf ’08 (Richard Rahmstorf, physics professor at Potsdam University, "Anthropogenic Climate Change?" Page 42-49)

It is time to turn to statement B: human activities are altering the climate
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that anthropogenic global warming is a reality with which we need to deal.

Warming’s the only existential threat

Deibel ’07 – Professor of IR at the National War College (Terry, "Foreign Affairs Strategy: Logic for American Statecraft," 2007, Conclusion: American Foreign Affairs Strategy Today)

Finally, there is one major existential threat to American security (as well as
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States, but potentially to the continued existence of life on this planet.  

Extinction

Brandenburg and Paxson ’99 (John Brandenburg, PhD, physicist and professor, and Monica Rix Paxson, distinguished science writer, "Dead Mars, Dying Earth", google books)

One can imagine a scenario for global catastrophe that runs similarly. If the human
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Mars—red, desolate, with perhaps a few hardy microbes surviving. 

A2 Econ Defense

Global economic crisis causes war—strong statistical support—also causes great power transitions

Royal ’10 (Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, "Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises," in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214)

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict
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popularity, are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force..  

A2 Russia Economy Turn

Metal and oil prices sustain Russian economy

Garrels ’08 (NPR Senior Foreign Correspondent, Anne, September 20, 2008, "Russian Economy Strong Despite Commodity Fallout", http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94647099, 7/24/12, atl)

September 20, 2008 For the past six years, Russia’s economy has boomed in
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-size businesses. For this, Russia needs a stable global financial system 

There’s no existential risk from collapse

Blackwill’09 (RAND Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Planning, Robert, "The Geopolitical Consequences of the World Economic Recession—A Caution" RAND Occasional Paper, 2009, 7/24/12, atl)

Now on to Russia. Again, five years from today.  Did the global
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are likely to be changed in any serious  way by the economic crisis. 

A2 Spending DA

Drilling on public lands increases government revenue through billions of dollars in royalties

API ’11 (American Petroleum Institute, "Oil and Natural Gas Development on Public Lands are an Important Revenue Source for Government," http://www.api.org/Policy-and-Issues/Policy-Items/Exploration/Oil_And_Natural_Gas_Development_On_Public_Lands.aspx-http://www.api.org/Policy-and-Issues/Policy-Items/Exploration/Oil_And_Natural_Gas_Development_On_Public_Lands.aspx)

Yes. In order to obtain federal leases, companies agree to pay a royalty
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more information on royalties paid for oil and gas produced from federal lands.

A2 Contamination

Fracking doesn’t cause contamination – major study

BBC 12 (June 28, ’Fracking’ safe with strong regulation, report says http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18611647)

In the US, concerns have been raised that the gas or the chemicals can
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Geological Survey can’t measure below Magnitude 2 in towns because of the traffic."

Fracking is safe – UK Royal Society report

New Zeland Herald 12 (July 20^th, Fracking safe, claims UK science body, http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3%26objectid=10821014)

The controversial oil and gas extraction process known as hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking", is capable of being managed sustainably and without serious risk of groundwater contamination or inducing damaging earthquakes, the Royal Society has found. One of the world’s most respected independent scientific bodies, the society worked with the Royal Academy of Engineering to produce a report sought by the UK’s chief scientific adviser, John Beddington.

Fracking doesn’t cause increased cancer rates or radioactive water – opponents’ claims are just hype

AP 12 (July 23^rd, "Experts: Some fracking critics use bad science" http://www.rdmag.com/News/2012/07/Energy-Natural-Gas-Regulations-Experts-Some-fracking-critics-use-bad-science/)

PITTSBURGH (AP)—In the debate over natural gas drilling, the companies are
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don’t acknowledge that natural gas is a far cleaner burning fuel than coal.

No water supply contamination – tests show no pollution and regulatory changes have been made just to be safe

Washington Post 12 (July 22^nd, Doctors, scientists say fracking critics misrepresent some facts to make their point, http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/doctors-scientists-say-fracking-critics-misrepresent-some-facts-to-make-their-point/2012/07/22/gJQAX1nO2W_story_1.html)

Another instance where fears haven’t been confirmed by science is the concern that radioactivity in
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wells, or sent to a treatment plant that doesn’t discharge into waterways.

A2 Peak Resource

Predictions are wrong

We haven’t reached a peak in Natural Gas, new techniques and new wells are fruitful

Nolan Hart 2010 ~Energy Industry, self employed. To pay the bills I work in the oil and gas industry, on drilling rigs in a technical position related to directional drilling~ (http://doodlebugs.xomba.com/how_long_until_peak_natural_gas. Author of works in Horizontal drilling industry and blogs about the energy industry)

What About Peak Natural Gas? So, does that mean a peak in natural
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Europe, the worldwide glut of natural gas supply will only get bigger.

Gas Reserves

U.S. gas reserves are massive—we have over 100 years supply

O’Keefe 12
~Brian O’Keefe, assistant managing editor at CNN, Exxon’s big bet on shale gas, CNN Money, 4-16-2012, http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/04/16/exxon-shale-gas-fracking/~~**
This shale gas boom has turned assumptions about the future of the U.S
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director who last year chaired a Department of Energy subcommittee on shale gas.

Unconventional gas will grow

Moniz et al 12
~Main Chair on the Study, "The Future of Natural Gas", multidisciplinary MIT Study, 2012~
In a global context, U.S. gas production by type is extremely
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output standing at 1.92 Tcf or 9% of the total.

Shale and conventional will increase
Moniz et al 12
~Main Chair on the Study, "The Future of Natural Gas", multidisciplinary MIT Study, 2012~
Aside from the fall in conventional production, the most striking feature of the gas
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— of the order of 450 to 500 Tcf — from expected future discoveries

Production is up

Moniz et al 12
~Main Chair on the Study, "The Future of Natural Gas", multidisciplinary MIT Study, 2012~
There is significant geographical variation in U.S. natural gas production levels.
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of the maturity of the conventional resource base in the Gulf of Mexico.

Trends are up

Moniz et al 12
~Main Chair on the Study, "The Future of Natural Gas", multidisciplinary MIT Study, 2012~
Unconventional natural gas, and particularly shale gas, will make an important contribution to future U.S. energy supply and CO2 emission reduction efforts. Assessments of the recoverable volumes of shale gas in the U.S. have increased dramatically over the last five years, and continue to grow. The mean projection of
the recoverable shale gas resource in this report is approximately 650 Tcf, with low
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for diversification and improved security of supply in some parts of the world.

Supplies will accelerate

Moniz et al 12
~Main Chair on the Study, "The Future of Natural Gas", multidisciplinary MIT Study, 2012~
Despite the relative maturity of the U.S. gas supply, estimates of
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420 to 870 Tcf. This resource growth is a testament to the power
of technology application in the development of resources, and also provides an illustration of the large uncertainty inherent in all resource estimates. 

A2 Well Productivity Down

Tech has improved productivity—and will increase

Moniz et al 12
~Main Chair on the Study, "The Future of Natural Gas", multidisciplinary MIT Study, 2012~
The development of unconventional resources in general, and shale resources in particular, has
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orientation and other properties that would be invaluable in improving overall resource development.

A2 Estimates Cut Back

Even missed estimates have enough gas

Orcutt 11
~Mike Orcutt, "How Much U.S. Shale Gas Is There, Really?", Technology Review, 8-31-2011, http://www.technologyreview.com/article/425286/how-much-us-shale-gas-is-there-really/~~
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) raised eyebrows last week when
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are more than enough recoverable resources in the Marcellus to meet foreseeable demand.

A2 Urbina

The Urbina evidence is a joke—gets everything wrong

Helman 11
~Christopher Helman, Forbes Staff Writer, "New York Times Is All Hot Air On Shale Gas", 6-27-2011, http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2011/06/27/new-york-times-is-all-hot-air-on-shale-gas/2/~~**
Over the weekend The New York Times published this story on how the business of
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To Import Less Oil, U.S. Must Export More Gas).
The shale play that started it all, the Barnett of northern Texas, is
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for nothing and still make 100% annual returns on their drilling dollars.

A2 Bias—Emails

Industry emails are always suspect

Brisbane 11
~Arthur S. Brisbane, "Why Redacting E-Mails Is a Bad Idea", New York Times, 7-31-2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/31/opinion/sunday/why-redacting-e-mails-is-a-bad-idea.html~~**
TWO weeks ago, I raised questions about a New York Times article that warned
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to be an intern — the trust won’t be there the next time.

A2 Methane

Link

Tech solves

Cathles et all 11

• • ~Lawrence M. Cathles III %26 Larry Brown %26 Milton Taam %26 Andrew Hunter, ""A commentary on "The greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas in shale formations" by R.W. Howarth, R. Santoro, and Anthony Ingraffea"", Springer Link, 10-21-2011, http://www.springerlink.com/content/x001g12t2332462p/fulltext.pdf~~**
    Even though the authors allow that technical solutions exist to substantially reduce any leakage,
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    easily be (and are) flared and the GHG footprint thereby minimized.

Economic incentives check

Zeller 12
 (Tom Jr., "Studies Say Natural Gas Has Its Own Environmental Problems," NY Times, 4-11-11, www.nytimes.com/2011/04/12/business/energy-environment/12gas.html?pagewanted=all, accessed 5-29-12, mss)

The findings are certain to stir debate. For much of the last decade,
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us doesn’t make any sense. That’s not the business that we’re in."

====The time of transition is irrelevant—natural gas solves in short and long run====
Cathles 11

• • ~L.M. Cathles, "Assessing the greenhouse impact of natural gas", Cornell, 1-7-2011, http://www.geo.cornell.edu/eas/PeoplePlaces/Faculty/cathles/Natural%20Gas/Cathles-%20Assessing%20GH%20Impact%20Natural%20Gas.pdf~~**
    The most important message of the calculations reported here is that substituting natural gas for
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    is related to the amount of CO2 put into the atmosphere, period.

Tech solves, and studies assume a wrong time interval

Cathles et al 11

• • ~Lawrence M. Cathles III %26 Larry Brown %26 Milton Taam %26 Andrew Hunter, ""A commentary on "The greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas in shale formations" by R.W. Howarth, R. Santoro, and Anthony Ingraffea"", Springer Link, 10-21-2011, http://www.springerlink.com/content/x001g12t2332462p/fulltext.pdf~~**
    Natural gas is widely considered to be an environmentally cleaner fuel than coal because it
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    a GHG footprint that is half and perhaps a third that of coal.

Impact

Methane emissions from natural gas are insignificant

Levi 11
 ~Michael Levi, David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment, "Why Methane Doesn’t Matter*", CFR Blog: Energy, Security, and Climate, 9-14-2011, http://blogs.cfr.org/levi/2011/09/14/why-methane-doesn%E2%80%99t-matter/-http://blogs.cfr.org/levi/2011/09/14/why-methane-doesn%E2%80%99t-matter/~~
I’ll have more to say about the broader question of gas as a bridge fuel
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only one percent to the CO2 impact of gas use in the atmosphere.~

Methane leaks are exaggerated

Cathles et al 11

• • ~Lawrence M. Cathles III %26 Larry Brown %26 Milton Taam %26 Andrew Hunter, ""A commentary on "The greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas in shale formations" by R.W. Howarth, R. Santoro, and Anthony Ingraffea"", Springer Link, 10-21-2011, http://www.springerlink.com/content/x001g12t2332462p/fulltext.pdf~~**
    The leakage that occurs between an operating well and consumers as the result of gas
    AND
    be done regardless of how a comparison of gas and coal turns out.

Methane irrelevant

Levi 11
 ~Michael Levi, David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment, "Why Methane Doesn’t Matter*", CFR Blog: Energy, Security, and Climate, 9-14-2011, http://blogs.cfr.org/levi/2011/09/14/why-methane-doesn%E2%80%99t-matter/-http://blogs.cfr.org/levi/2011/09/14/why-methane-doesn%E2%80%99t-matter/~~
Ultimately, I’m fairly confident in saying that if you’re focused on the sorts of
AND
going to assume that people are also cleaning up their gas production operations.) 

A2 Tipping Point/Threshold

Threshold crossing is inevitable and methane won’t trigger it

Levi 11
 ~Michael Levi, David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment, "Why Methane Doesn’t Matter*", CFR Blog: Energy, Security, and Climate, 9-14-2011, http://blogs.cfr.org/levi/2011/09/14/why-methane-doesn%E2%80%99t-matter/-http://blogs.cfr.org/levi/2011/09/14/why-methane-doesn%E2%80%99t-matter/~~
Many will instinctively dismiss this as irrelevant to the challenge at hand – after all
AND
pollution from coal fired plants, which figures prominently in Wigley et al.)

Cathles Prodite

Cathles’ methodology is sound

Cathles 11

• • ~L.M. Cathles, "Assessing the greenhouse impact of natural gas", Cornell, 1-7-2011, http://www.geo.cornell.edu/eas/PeoplePlaces/Faculty/cathles/Natural%20Gas/Cathles-%20Assessing%20GH%20Impact%20Natural%20Gas.pdf~~**
    The methods used in this paper should not be controversial. The benefit of substituting
    AND
    for coal and some oil. This is a very substantial greenhouse benefit. 

A2 Howarth

Howarth’s methodology is flawed

Cathles et al 11

• • ~Lawrence M. Cathles III %26 Larry Brown %26 Milton Taam %26 Andrew Hunter, ""A commentary on "The greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas in shale formations" by R.W. Howarth, R. Santoro, and Anthony Ingraffea"", Springer Link, 10-21-2011, http://www.springerlink.com/content/x001g12t2332462p/fulltext.pdf~~**
    The first aspect is the question of just how much methane gets released directly into
    AND
    are sure to further reduce losses venting from both conventional and unconventional wells.

He focuses on the wrong methane source

Cathles et al 11

• • ~Lawrence M. Cathles III %26 Larry Brown %26 Milton Taam %26 Andrew Hunter, ""A commentary on "The greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas in shale formations" by R.W. Howarth, R. Santoro, and Anthony Ingraffea"", Springer Link, 10-21-2011, http://www.springerlink.com/content/x001g12t2332462p/fulltext.pdf~~**
    The second aspect of the Howarth et al. paper that we question is the
    AND
    efficiently (and therefore with half the GHG input) as old coal plants

Howarth’s got the wrong end-use

Cathles et al 11

• • ~Lawrence M. Cathles III %26 Larry Brown %26 Milton Taam %26 Andrew Hunter, ""A commentary on "The greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas in shale formations" by R.W. Howarth, R. Santoro, and Anthony Ingraffea"", Springer Link, 10-21-2011, http://www.springerlink.com/content/x001g12t2332462p/fulltext.pdf~~**
    Howarth et al. choose an end use for comparing GHG footprints that is inappropriate
    AND
    is perhaps the most misleading aspect of the Howarth et al. analysis.

Howarth overestimates

Cathles et all 11

• • ~Lawrence M. Cathles III %26 Larry Brown %26 Milton Taam %26 Andrew Hunter, ""A commentary on "The greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas in shale formations" by R.W. Howarth, R. Santoro, and Anthony Ingraffea"", Springer Link, 10-21-2011, http://www.springerlink.com/content/x001g12t2332462p/fulltext.pdf~~**
    Howarth et al.’s high end (7.9%) estimate of methane
    AND
    high end estimate of 7.9% is unreasonably large and misleading.

A2 Howarth’s Indite of Cathles

Howarth’s criticism of Cathles misses the boat

New York Times 12
 ~1-6-2012, http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/06/on-shale-gas-warming-and-whiplash~~
Writing on Saturday, Lawrence M. Cathles of Cornell, the lead author on
AND
you are interested, the draft of that paper is ~online here~.

A2 SO2

Link

Declining SO2 nullifies the benefits- gas is better for climate

Alvarez et al 12
 (Ramon, PhD in physical chemistry from UC Berkeley, Stephen Pacala,  Princeton Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, James Winebrake, Rochester Institute of Technology, William Chameides, Duke University School of Environment, and Steven Hamburg, EDF, "Greater focus needed on methane leakage from natural gas infrastructure," PNAS, 4-9-12, www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/04/02/1202407109.full.pdf+html, accessed 6-1-12, mss)

Our analysis of coal-to-natural gas fuel-switching does not consider
AND
∕GtC) for U.S. coal plants (SI Text).

SO2 is irrelevant with natural gas

Cathles 12

• • ~L.M. Cathles, "Assessing the greenhouse impact of natural gas", Cornell, 1-7-2011, http://www.geo.cornell.edu/eas/PeoplePlaces/Faculty/cathles/Natural%20Gas/Cathles-%20Assessing%20GH%20Impact%20Natural%20Gas.pdf~~**
    Sulfur dioxide additions are not a factor in our analysis because the substitute‐gas and low‐
    carbon‐fast scenarios reduce the burning of coal over the growth period in an identical
    fashion.  Thus both introduce SO2 identically, and the small warming effects of the SO2,
    which will occur no matter how coal is retired, cancel in the comparison.

Impact

SO2 is just temporary, CO2 is permanent-makes it more important

Cathles et al 11
~Lawrence M. Cathles III %26 Larry Brown %26 Milton Taam %26 Andrew Hunter, ""A commentary on "The greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas in shale formations" by R.W. Howarth, R. Santoro, and Anthony Ingraffea"", Springer Link, 10-21-2011, http://www.springerlink.com/content/x001g12t2332462p/fulltext.pdf~~**
Howarth et al. justify the 20-year time horizon for their GHG comparison
AND
swapping gas for coal are completely missed by the 20 year GWP factor.

No impact—SO2 cooling effect is temporary

Schmid 11

• • ~Randolph E. Schmid, "China Coal Consumption Linked to Global Cooling", The Huffington Post, 7-4-2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/04/global-warming-china-air-pollution_n_889897.html~~**
    Sulfur particles in the air deflect the sun’s rays and can temporarily cool things down
    AND
    the carbon dioxide from coal burning stays in Earth’s atmosphere a long time.

A2 Coal

Natural gas is superior to coal

Worldwatch Institute 11

• • ~Despite Methane Emissions Upstream, Natural Gas Is Cleaner than Coal on a Life-Cycle Basis, 2011, http://www.worldwatch.org/despite-methane-emissions-upstream-natural-gas-cleaner-coal-life-cycle-basis-http://www.worldwatch.org/despite-methane-emissions-upstream-natural-gas-cleaner-coal-life-cycle-basis~~
    Washington, D.C.-Over its full cycle of production, distribution,
    AND
    would further improve the life-cycle greenhouse gas footprint of natural gas.

A2 CCS

Link

Nat gas development won’t interfere with CCS

Hill 12

• • ~Bruce Hill, Ph.D Senior Scientist, "Fracking and Geologic Carbon Storage Can Safely Coexist", Clean Air Task Force, 6-7-2012, http://www.catf.us/blogs/ahead/2012/06/07/fracking-and-geologic-carbon-storage-can-safely-coexist/~~**
    Lastly, as a practical matter, there is little reason to believe that shale
    AND
    impediment to development of geologic carbon storage capacity in the U.S.

CCS isn’t incompatible with natural gas—right geological formations exist

Marshall 12

• • ~Christa Marshall, E%26E Reporter, "Can drilling for shale gas and carbon sequestration coexist?", E%26E Publishing, LLC, Climate Wire, 3-16-2012~
    The size of the resource indicates there will still be plenty of room for CO2
    AND
    if the geology works," he said about CCS and shale gas production.

Impact

No impact—CCS won’t be adopted

Donald 12

• • ~Ros Donald, Global confidence in CCS wanes, The Carbon Brief, 5-4-2012, http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/05/confidence-in-ccs-wanes~~**
    Confidence in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is waning just as the
    AND
    a carbon price to secure enough investment to develop beyond the pilot stage.

CCS is just in the testing stage—too costly to be adopted

Marshall 12

• • ~Christa Marshall, E%26E Reporter, "Can drilling for shale gas and carbon sequestration coexist?", E%26E Publishing, LLC, Climate Wire, 3-16-2012~
    The study raises issues that would play out in the future, since carbon capture
    AND
    the fossil fuel releases about a third of the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions.

A2 Princeton Study

The Princeton team oversimplifies CCS storage

Hill 12

• • ~Bruce Hill, Ph.D Senior Scientist, "Fracking and Geologic Carbon Storage Can Safely Coexist", Clean Air Task Force, 6-7-2012, http://www.catf.us/blogs/ahead/2012/06/07/fracking-and-geologic-carbon-storage-can-safely-coexist/~~**
    A recent paper by Princeton researchers published in Environmental Science and Technology questions the compatibility
    AND
    the height of the Sears Tower in Chicago– to reach the surface.

And, they reach false conclusions

Hill 12

• • ~Bruce Hill, Ph.D Senior Scientist, "Fracking and Geologic Carbon Storage Can Safely Coexist", Clean Air Task Force, 6-7-2012, http://www.catf.us/blogs/ahead/2012/06/07/fracking-and-geologic-carbon-storage-can-safely-coexist/~~**
    So the authors drew the false conclusion that one would necessarily exclude the other,
    AND
    unconventional oil and gas operations, including shale gas production and hydraulic fracturing.

A2 Fracking Bad Generics

Cherry Picking Examples

Opponents cherry-pick examples- companies that cut corners are the minority

Harvey, 11 — Guardian Environment correspondent
(Fiona, "Shale gas: is it as green as the oil companies say?" Guardian, 4-20-11, www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/20/shale-gas-green-oil-companies, accessed 6-2-12, mss)

Gas advocates, such as Miller of Cuadrilla, argue that the film, and
AND
order to ensure its sites did not lead to contamination or gas leaks.

Fracking Inevitable

Fracking is inevitable—China Proves

OGIB, 11
(Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin, "Fracking Dragon: China Looks to Exploit Shale Gas," 11-30-11, oilandgas-investments.com/2011/natural-gas/fracking-dragon-china-looks-to-exploit-shale-gas/, accessed 5-30-12, mss)

Fracking has helped the United States maintain the world’s number one economy, but the
AND
gas a year, which will likely need to be accomplished through fracking.

A2 Myers

Myers is wrong

Ward, 12 — staff writer
(Ken, "Study finds fracking can quickly threaten water supply," Charleston Gazette, 5-3-12, l/n, accessed 5-29-12, mss)

The nonprofit journalism organization ProPublica, which has extensively covered the debate over the natural
AND
?’ The concern then arises from using a model rather than observations."

A2 Watersheds

General

It’s inevitable, water can’t flow up, and it’s exaggerated

Pace Global 11
~Evva Comans, "Shale Gas Development and Water Quality: Best Practices Can Mitigate Risks to Underground Aquifers and Water Wells", Energy and Carbon Management Blog, 1-7-2011, http://blog.paceglobal.com/bid/51555/Shale-Gas-Development-and-Water-Quality-Best-Practices-Can-Mitigate-Risks-to-Underground-Aquifers-and-Water-Wells~~**
On the first issue, it is important to understand that the shale gas formations
AND
rock face in the well and the flowing frac fluid and natural gas.

Tech solves

Bullis 12
~Kevin Bullis, "Can Fracking Be Cleaned Up?", MIT Technology Review, 6-5-2012, http://m.technologyreview.com/energy/40511/~~**
New technology could greatly reduce the amount of pressure needed for fracking, making it
AND
less-toxic chemicals, or techniques to eliminate the need for them.

All empiricism flows our way

Gilbert and Gold 12
~Daniel Gilbert and Russell Gold, "EPA Backpedals on Fracking Contamination", WSJ, 4-1-2012, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303404704577313741463447670.html~~**
In addition to dropping the case in Texas, the EPA has agreed to substantial
AND
can be avoided by proper use of cement seals and other safety measures.

Qualified studies prove

Wall Street Journal 12
~"UK Study Shows Little Danger Of Shale Gas Water Contamination", 4-24-2012, http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120424-720760.html~~**
LONDON (Dow Jones)—There is little danger that the technique used to produce
AND
the chance of fractures going into aquifers is incredibly low," he said.

Extensions

It’s inevitable

McNally 12
~Scott McNally, B.S. in Chemical Engineering from the University of Texas. He has worked as an Environmental Engineer for Valero Energy Corporation, a Project Engineer for Shell Oil Company, and an energy and climate research intern for the White House Council on Environmental Quality, Guest Post: Water Contamination – Fracking is not the problem, Scientific American, 1-25-2012, http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/2012/01/25/guest-post-water-contamination-fracking-is-not-the-problem/~~**
Bottom line: water contamination does happen, but not because of hydraulic fracturing.
AND
development projects are safe, and the existing environmental concerns are largely preventable.

No water contamination- water can’t flow up

Engelder, 11 — Pennsylvania State University geosciences professor
(Terry, "Should fracking stop?" Nature, Vol 477, 9-15-11, accessed 6-2-12, mss)

Some people have expressed worries that fracking fluids might migrate more than 2 kilometres upwards
AND
is reduced: this promotes downward, not upward flow of these fluids.

No impact—water pollution can be minimized and is rare

IEA 12
~"Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas", World Energy Outlook Report on Unconventional Gas, 5-29-2012, http://www.iea.org/media/WEO_GoldenRules_ForA_GoldenAgeOfGas_Flyer.pdf-http://www.iea.org/media/WEO_GoldenRules_ForA_GoldenAgeOfGas_Flyer.pdf**~~**
The first hazard – the risk of spills at the surface – can be mitigated
AND
but it cannot be completely excluded when the local geology is insufficiently understood.

A2 States CP

50 state fiat is bad and a voting issue-

1. Utopian- all fifty states have never taken uniform action, CP isn’t real-world- we can’t compete against imaginary processes
   2. No coherent literature base on the CP
   Carley ’11 ~Sanya, Assistant Professor in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University. Her research interests include electricity sector economics and policy, energy-based economic development, distributed generation, and applied econometrics, "The Era of State Energy Policy Innovation: A Review of Policy Instruments," May 1, EBSCO~

Each state has selected among a wide variety of different policy instruments, and crafted
AND
low policy adoption rates and both high and low rates of emissions growth.
3. They use multiple actors which is illegit- not reciprocal and opens the floodgates to countless unpredictable actors that we can’t predict
4. Infinitely regressive- justifies regional and local CPs that are miniscule and hard to predict
5. Not key to education- federalism DA solves all their offense, plus neg ground is 
6. Not reciprocal- we’re bound to federal action, they should be as well
7. Counter-interpretation- they get to use the USFG or a part of it- gives them alternate agent ground 

Perm- do both- it’s normal means and solves best
World Resources Institute ’08 ~"State and Federal Policy Roles," August, http://pdf.wri.org/bottom_line_state_fed.pdf~~

Most energy and environmental issues are currently handled jointly by state and federal government in
AND
between levels of government is the most likely outcome for climate change policy.

States lack implementation speed and bureaucratic strength
EPA ’08 ~U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Advancing State Clean Energy Funds," May, http://www.utilitysp.net/whitepapers/Clean_Energy_Funds_Manual.pdf-http://www.utilitysp.net/whitepapers/Clean_Energy_Funds_Manual.pdf~~
Disadvantages of the State Model • States are often challenged in their ability to hire
AND
clean energy or efficiency, or that are in contradiction with CEF objectives.
50 state uniformity on energy doesn’t exist, each state is radically different- either our theory args are true or the CP causes chaos that rolls back solvency
Carlson ’08 ~Ann, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - School of Law, "Iterative Federalism and Climate Change," online~
One of the lessons of iterative federalism is that policymakers and scholars need not view
AND
with strong state involvement bolstered by significant technical and leadership support from the federal

Single federal policy is key business transition
World Resources Institute ’08 ~"State and Federal Policy Roles," August, http://pdf.wri.org/bottom_line_state_fed.pdf~~

Advocates of a single federal policy seek a level playing field for all businesses affected by the policy, which would mandate uniform regulation across all 50 states. Also, it is easier for corporations to abide by a single regulation rather than adhere to many regulations in different jurisdictions. Given that not all states would enact climate policy, strong federal policy could achieve greater emission reductions than state-led policy action alone.
Next, states rely on public data agencies that can’t adequately manage the plan
Milford et al ’12 ~Lew Milford is a non-resident senior fellow at Brookings and president of Clean Energy Group. Mark Muro is a senior fellow and director of policy for the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings. Jessica Morey is a consultant to Clean Energy Group. Devashree Saha is a senior policy analyst at the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program. Mark Sinclair is executive director of Clean Energy States Alliance, "Leveraging State Clean Energy Funds for Economic Development," January, http://www.brookings.edu/~~/media/research/files/papers/2012/1/11%20states%20energy%20funds/0111_states_energy_funds.pdf-http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/1/11 states energy funds/0111_states_energy_funds.pdf~
Inadequate industry information. Most states possess insufficient information about their instate clean energy industries
AND
metrics in place to evaluate their clean energy programs for revision or replacement.  
Third, states won’t collaborate with key partners
Milford et al ’12 ~Lew Milford is a non-resident senior fellow at Brookings and president of Clean Energy Group. Mark Muro is a senior fellow and director of policy for the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings. Jessica Morey is a consultant to Clean Energy Group. Devashree Saha is a senior policy analyst at the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program. Mark Sinclair is executive director of Clean Energy States Alliance, "Leveraging State Clean Energy Funds for Economic Development," January, http://www.brookings.edu/~~/media/research/files/papers/2012/1/11%20states%20energy%20funds/0111_states_energy_funds.pdf-http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/1/11 states energy funds/0111_states_energy_funds.pdf~

Limited collaboration among stakeholders, including clean energy funds, state economic development agencies,
AND
, necessitating the need to reach out to other state economic development partners.
CP causes interstate competition that kills solvency
Shobe and Burtraw ’12 ~William M. Shobe, Director, Center for Economic and Policy Studies Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service Professor of Public Policy, Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, Dallas Burtraw, PhD in Economics from University of Michigan, Senior Fellow at Resources for the Future, "Rethinking Environmental Federalism in a Warming World," http://www.rff.org/rff/Documents/RFF-DP-12-04.pdf-http://www.rff.org/rff/Documents/RFF-DP-12-04.pdf~~

In contrast to normative analysis, the positive analysis of federalism focuses on why given
AND
and intensity of policies implemented at each level of government (Oates 1999).

States can’t solve climate policy- competition and localized focus
Shobe and Burtraw ’12 ~William M. Shobe, Director, Center for Economic and Policy Studies Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service Professor of Public Policy, Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, Dallas Burtraw, PhD in Economics from University of Michigan, Senior Fellow at Resources for the Future, "Rethinking Environmental Federalism in a Warming World," http://www.rff.org/rff/Documents/RFF-DP-12-04.pdf-http://www.rff.org/rff/Documents/RFF-DP-12-04.pdf~~

Unfortunately, using states as policy laboratories is not without its difficulties. Local policies
AND
17 In general, one would expect to observe differences in state policies that

==1AR States CP Answers==

50 states fiat bad

There’s no good empirical literature on state energy policies
Carley ’11 ~Sanya, Assistant Professor in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University. Her research interests include electricity sector economics and policy, energy-based economic development, distributed generation, and applied econometrics, "The Era of State Energy Policy Innovation: A Review of Policy Instruments," May 1, EBSCO~

Over the course of the era of state energy policy innovation, states have selected
AND
and what are the limits of state leadership in energy and climate policy.

Specifically, 50 state uniformity on energy doesn’t exist because each state is radically different- either our theory args are true or the CP causes chaos that rolls back solvency
Carlson ’08 ~Ann, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - School of Law, "Iterative Federalism and Climate Change," online~

One of the lessons of iterative federalism is that policymakers and scholars need not view
AND
government. In short, iterative federalism ought to expand our regulatory horizons.
More evidence- there’s no good comparative research base on uniform state policies
Jentgen and Papazian 4-20-12 ~Matt and John, Master of Environmental Management Candidates The Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University, "An Inquiry into the Balance between Federal and State Energy Policy in the Southeast," http://dukespace.lib.duke.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/10161/5194/Jentgen%20and%20Papazian%20%282012%29.pdf?sequence=1-http://dukespace.lib.duke.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/10161/5194/Jentgen and Papazian %282012%29.pdf?sequence=1~

There are three critical gaps in the existing literature that motivates our research. First
AND
efficiency, and climate legislation impacts in conjunction with heterogeneous state RPS policies.
All 50 states can’t legally take the same action- each is distinct, their form of fiat isn’t real-world
Carlson ’08 ~Ann, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - School of Law, "Iterative Federalism and Climate Change," online~

As I argue in more detail later in this Article, the examples I identify
AND
level of government and then back to the policy originator and so forth.

1AR- Perm- do both

Perm solves best- cooperation is superior
Milford et al ’12 ~Lew Milford is a non-resident senior fellow at Brookings and president of Clean Energy Group. Mark Muro is a senior fellow and director of policy for the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings. Jessica Morey is a consultant to Clean Energy Group. Devashree Saha is a senior policy analyst at the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program. Mark Sinclair is executive director of Clean Energy States Alliance, "Leveraging State Clean Energy Funds for Economic Development," January, http://www.brookings.edu/~~/media/research/files/papers/2012/1/11%20states%20energy%20funds/0111_states_energy_funds.pdf-http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/1/11 states energy funds/0111_states_energy_funds.pdf~

Finally, there is insufficient recognition at the federal level of the key role that
AND
new set of policy and funding partnerships with the state programs and funds.
State and federal cooperation solves best
CESA ’10 ~Clean Energy States Alliance (CESA) is a national nonprofit organization of public clean energy funds and programs that have banded together to invest in and promote clean energy and low-carbon technologies in their states and, collectively, across the country, "States Lead the Clean Energy Revolution," http://www.cleanenergystates.org/assets/Uploads/Resources-post-8-16/CESA-2010-Members-Report.pdf-http://www.cleanenergystates.org/assets/Uploads/Resources-post-8-16/CESA-2010-Members-Report.pdf~~
In CESA’s view, a state/federal partnership on a national energy program is
AND
a future federal climate change program and in a national clean energy strategy.
Federal guidance is key to effective state action- otherwise the CP fails
Carlson ’08 ~Ann, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - School of Law, "Iterative Federalism and Climate Change," online~

A clarification is in order. In identifying and analyzing examples of iterative federalism,
AND
action on climate change lest it lose a significant source of regulatory experimentation.

Perm- Solves F’ism

Perm to do both solves the federalism net benefit- adaptive forms are best
 David E. Adelman (Professor at University of Texas Law School in the areas of environmental law, and climate change policy) and Kirsten H. Engel, (Professor at University of Arizona Law School in the areas of environmental law and economics and the environmental) 2008, Adaptive Federalism: The Case Against Reallocating Environmental Regulatory Authority http://www.minnesotalawreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/AdelmanEngel_FinalPDF.pdf-http://www.minnesotalawreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/AdelmanEngel_FinalPDF.pdf

Our adaptive model provides a powerful framework for a dynamic conception of federalism premised on
AND
of the matching principle ought to be reconsidered, if not abandoned altogether. 

1AR- No funding

No money for the CP
Greve ’11 ~Michael S. Greve, John G. Searle Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, specializes in constitutional law, courts, and business regulation, "America’s Upside-Down Constitution," October 28, http://www.aei.org/article/americas-upside-down-constitution/~~

The most obvious problems arise at the fiscal front. The national government is effectively
AND
Europeans; but then, we haven’t explained it to ourselves, either.

Federal pre-emption

Federal pre-emption is likely
World Resources Institute ’08 ~"State and Federal Policy Roles," August, http://pdf.wri.org/bottom_line_state_fed.pdf~~

States currently have the authority to regulate GHG emissions. This could change depending on
AND
implementing policies that reduce GHGs from sources not regulated by the federal government.

States fail- General

CP causes follow-the-leader policies that are ineffective and lack oversight
Shobe and Burtraw ’12 ~William M. Shobe, Director, Center for Economic and Policy Studies Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service Professor of Public Policy, Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, Dallas Burtraw, PhD in Economics from University of Michigan, Senior Fellow at Resources for the Future, "Rethinking Environmental Federalism in a Warming World," http://www.rff.org/rff/Documents/RFF-DP-12-04.pdf-http://www.rff.org/rff/Documents/RFF-DP-12-04.pdf~~

Follow-the-leader policy development occurs frequently, where one state or a
AND
goal and, if so, whether it has been worth the cost.
Multiple drawbacks to state energy policy
EPA ’08 ~U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Advancing State Clean Energy Funds," May, http://www.utilitysp.net/whitepapers/Clean_Energy_Funds_Manual.pdf-http://www.utilitysp.net/whitepapers/Clean_Energy_Funds_Manual.pdf~~

Disadvantages of the State Model • States are often challenged in their ability to hire
AND
clean energy or efficiency, or that are in contradiction with CEF objectives.
Inconsistent standards among states mean the CP fails
Shobe and Burtraw ’12 ~William M. Shobe, Director, Center for Economic and Policy Studies Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service Professor of Public Policy, Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, Dallas Burtraw, PhD in Economics from University of Michigan, Senior Fellow at Resources for the Future, "Rethinking Environmental Federalism in a Warming World," http://www.rff.org/rff/Documents/RFF-DP-12-04.pdf-http://www.rff.org/rff/Documents/RFF-DP-12-04.pdf~~

Moreover, differences in the stringency of climate initiatives across jurisdictions inherently produce different marginal costs of emissions reductions, undermining the costeffectiveness and the fairness of policy. In contrast, a national standard or rule may enforce ethical imperatives through national-level nondiscrimination, despite opposition by some localities or individuals.

Feds key- Warming

Federal action is key to solve warming- CP can’t solve international cooperation
Shobe and Burtraw ’12 ~William M. Shobe, Director, Center for Economic and Policy Studies Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service Professor of Public Policy, Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, Dallas Burtraw, PhD in Economics from University of Michigan, Senior Fellow at Resources for the Future, "Rethinking Environmental Federalism in a Warming World," http://www.rff.org/rff/Documents/RFF-DP-12-04.pdf-http://www.rff.org/rff/Documents/RFF-DP-12-04.pdf~~

There are very good reasons why, even in a federalist state, the national
AND
the constitutional charter and in international standards for the protection of human rights.
States can’t solve climate policy- competition and localized focus
Shobe and Burtraw ’12 ~William M. Shobe, Director, Center for Economic and Policy Studies Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service Professor of Public Policy, Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, Dallas Burtraw, PhD in Economics from University of Michigan, Senior Fellow at Resources for the Future, "Rethinking Environmental Federalism in a Warming World," http://www.rff.org/rff/Documents/RFF-DP-12-04.pdf-http://www.rff.org/rff/Documents/RFF-DP-12-04.pdf~~

Unfortunately, using states as policy laboratories is not without its difficulties. Local policies
AND
gains, and the relative influence of various interests at the local level.
States can’t solve global cooperation on warming policy
Vogel et al ’10 ~David Vogel, PhD in Politics from Princeton, is the Soloman P. Lee Distinguished Professor in Business Ethics at the University of California, Berkeley, Michael Toffel is an associate professor in the Technology and Operations Management unit at Harvard Business School, Diahanna Post is the Client Service Manager at The Nielsen Company, Nazli Z. Uludere Aragon is a researcher at the Harvard Business School, "Environmental Federalism in the European Union and the United States," Feb. 21, http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/10-085.pdf-http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/10-085.pdf~~

As of early 2010, the draft National Program rulemaking was in the process of
AND
of federal regulations that impose limits on carbon dioxide emissions throughout the US. 

Feds key- Innovation

Private firms won’t adopt new tech without federal action
Anadon et al ’11 ~Laura Diaz Anadon, Matthew Bunn, Gabriel Chan, Melissa Chan, Charles Jones, Ruud Kempener, Audrey Lee, Nathaniel Logar, %26 Venkatesh Narayanamurti, Energy Technology Innovation Policy Research Group, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, "Transforming U.S. Energy Innovation," http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/uploads/energy-report-january-2012.pdf-http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/uploads/energy-report-january-2012.pdf~~

Many of the energy innovators participating in the survey do not formally measure the economic
AND
, private and public-sector decisions regarding energy technology are fundamentally connected.
Federal-level innovation is key- it determines what tech is adopted
Anadon et al ’11 ~Laura Diaz Anadon, Matthew Bunn, Gabriel Chan, Melissa Chan, Charles Jones, Ruud Kempener, Audrey Lee, Nathaniel Logar, %26 Venkatesh Narayanamurti, Energy Technology Innovation Policy Research Group, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, "Transforming U.S. Energy Innovation," http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/uploads/energy-report-january-2012.pdf-http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/uploads/energy-report-january-2012.pdf~~

Though the Department of Energy is the largest single investor in energy technology innovation,
AND
and predictability that private sector actors need to make investments is currently lacking.

Feds key- Fracking/drilling

Federal support of fracking is key- decades of empirical success and innovation
Shellenberger et al ’11 ~Michael Shellenberger is President of the Breakthrough Institute, an award-winning environmental and public health think tank, Ted Nordhaus is the Chairman of the Institute, Alex Trembath is a Policy Associate of the Energy and Climate Program, and Jesse Jenkins is Director of Energy and Climate Policy, "New Investigation Finds Decades of Government Funding Behind Shale Revolution," Dec. 20, http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2011/12/new_investigation_finds_decade.shtml~~

The technological revolution allowing for the cheap extraction of natural gas from shale occurred thanks
AND
protect the integrity of the rock formations, allowing for greater gas extraction.
Federal action is key to effective fracking- unique source of tech innovation
Energy Collective 1-6-12 ~"Terry Engelder on the Federal Role in the Shale Gas Revolution," http://theenergycollective.com/breakthroughinstitut/73670/terry-engelder-federal-role-shale-gas-revolution~~

As a part of the Breakthrough Institute’s in-depth investigation of shale gas extraction
AND
Reagan and were into the Clinton administration before Carter age research paid dividends.

A2 Federal modeling
Feds don’t model the states- waste policy proves they stay out
Vogel et al ’10 ~David Vogel, PhD in Politics from Princeton, is the Soloman P. Lee Distinguished Professor in Business Ethics at the University of California, Berkeley, Michael Toffel is an associate professor in the Technology and Operations Management unit at Harvard Business School, Diahanna Post is the Client Service Manager at The Nielsen Company, Nazli Z. Uludere Aragon is a researcher at the Harvard Business School, "Environmental Federalism in the European Union and the United States," Feb. 21, http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/10-085.pdf-http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/10-085.pdf~~

The dynamics of the regulation of packaging waste differs considerably. In the US,
AND
imports’ of garbage to violate the interstate commerce clause of the US constitution.
Feds cause state modeling, not the other way around
Carlson ’08 ~Ann, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - School of Law, "Iterative Federalism and Climate Change," online~

In a significant and widely-cited paper, Elliott, Ackerman and Millian argued
AND
bolstering state regulatory capacity and leadership, leading ultimately to climate change regulation.
Feds won’t reciprocate- too stubborn
Rabe ’10 ~Barry, Arthur F. Thurnau Professor of Environmental Policy at the University of Michigan; J. Ira and Nicki Harris Family Professor of Public Policy, Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy; Professor of the Environment, College of Literature, Science and the Arts; Professor of Environmental Policy, School of Natural Resources and the Environment; Professor of Political Science, College of Literature, Science and the Arts, "Greenhouse Governance : Addressing Climate Change in America," EBSCO~

On the federal side, I see five weaknesses or defects, which are less
AND
proceed with limited regard for the consequences of their actions for state governments.
No reciprocation- CP causes federal backlash
Vogel et al ’10 ~David Vogel, PhD in Politics from Princeton, is the Soloman P. Lee Distinguished Professor in Business Ethics at the University of California, Berkeley, Michael Toffel is an associate professor in the Technology and Operations Management unit at Harvard Business School, Diahanna Post is the Client Service Manager at The Nielsen Company, Nazli Z. Uludere Aragon is a researcher at the Harvard Business School, "Environmental Federalism in the European Union and the United States," Feb. 21, http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/10-085.pdf-http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/10-085.pdf~~

Nevertheless, environmentalists and their supporters continued to be relatively influential in a number of
AND
federal government in the critical area of greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles. 

A2 States more flexible
Political constraints hinder state flexibility
Shobe and Burtraw ’12 ~William M. Shobe, Director, Center for Economic and Policy Studies Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service Professor of Public Policy, Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, Dallas Burtraw, PhD in Economics from University of Michigan, Senior Fellow at Resources for the Future, "Rethinking Environmental Federalism in a Warming World," http://www.rff.org/rff/Documents/RFF-DP-12-04.pdf-http://www.rff.org/rff/Documents/RFF-DP-12-04.pdf~~

The states each have a constitution that limits, at least in the short run
AND
for their revenues as opposed to income and sales taxes (Zodrow 2001).

Extra Advantages

Aff into CP- Coal off

Natural gas solves emissions by offsetting coal production

Fehrenbacher ’10 (Katie Fehrenbacher, June 25, 2010, "The Reality of Cutting U.S. Carbon Emissions: Natural Gas," Gigaom, google)

Despite all of the innovations and investments in solar, wind, energy efficiency,
AND
Consider it a "bridge technology," to a carbon-free future.

ECONOMY

Economy—Solvency—1AC

Natural gas boosts industry and competitiveness—key to the econ

Jasinowski 12
 (Jerry, National Association of Manufacturers president for 14 years, "Natural Gas — True Game Changer," Huffington Post, 4-18-12, www.huffingtonpost.com/jerry-jasinowski/natural-gas-true-game-cha_b_1433933.html?utm_source=feedburner%26utm_medium=feed%26utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HP%2FBusiness+%28Business+on+The+Huffington+Post%29, accessed 5-28-12, mss)

The precipitous decline of natural gas prices — to less than %242 per 1
AND
gas in our country will boost economic growth for many years to come.

US crisis tanks the global economy

RAHMAN ’11 - former Ambassador and Chairman of the Centre for Foreign Affairs Studies. (Ashfaqur . "Another global recession?". August 21. http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=199461)

Several developments, especially in Europe and the US, fan this fear. First
AND
we may be in a new double dip or W-shaped recession. 

Economic collapse causes nuclear war
Merlini 11
~Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and
AND
World?’, Survival, 53:2, 117 – 130~
Two neatly opposed scenarios for the future of the world order illustrate the range of
AND
theocratic absolutes, competing or converging with secular absolutes such as unbridled nationalism.

Dollar—Solvency—1AC

Natural gas development lets the U.S. close the trade deficit and strengthen the dollar

Holland 12
 ~Kelley Holland, Currency Blogger at CNBC, "How Natural Gas Helps the Dollar", Money in Motion, CNBC, 4-4-2012, http://www.cnbc.com/id/46955130-http://www.cnbc.com/id/46955130~~
The dollar stands to gain from exports of petroleum products, these strategists say.
AND
be part of a broader improvement in the fundamental backdrop for the USD."

Dollar—Solvency—Ext.

Natural gas reduces the trade deficit—solves dollar growth

Rowley and White 12
~Emma Rowley, journalist on the business desk, covering mining, commodities, construction and housebuilders, Gas fracking will revolutionise the US economy, 3-25-2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/9165898/Gas-fracking-will-revolutionise-the-US-economy.html~~**
By 2035, the US will be the world’s second largest gas producer, with
AND
turns into surplus, the trend is firmly in place," she said.

US natural gas solves dollar strength

Ranken 12

• • ~Tom Ranken, resident %26 CEO of the Washington Clean Technology Alliance. He has been an entrepreneur and management consultant. Tom co-founded and was CEO of VizX Labs, which developed the GeneSifter software system used to make discoveries about genes, Is Natural Gas Really the Next Big Thing?, http://www.xconomy.com/seattle/2012/05/10/is-natural-gas-really-the-next-big-thing/~~**
    Benefit—Impact on the Economy. There can be little doubt that a significant
    AND
    delivering large pipeline pump engine heating solutions that significantly reduce wear and tear.

Dollar—Impact—1AC

Strong U.S. dollar is critical to U.S. growth

Drabier 11
~John, visiting professor of finance, Strong dollar is good for the U.S. economy, San Antonio Business Journal, 12-23-2011, http://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/print-edition/2011/12/23/strong-dollar-is-good-for-the-us.html?page=all~~**
Strange as it may seem, conventional economics 101 may not currently work for the
AND
new U.S. jobs if the regulatory environment uncertainty is reduced.
Second, since its arrival, the Euro has served as an alternative to the
AND
. Reduced input prices lead to increased output demand, jobs and income.

Dollar—AT: Hurts Multinationals

Companies’ subsidiaries solve

Drabier 11
~John, visiting professor of finance, Strong dollar is good for the U.S. economy, San Antonio Business Journal, 12-23-2011, http://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/print-edition/2011/12/23/strong-dollar-is-good-for-the-us.html?page=all~~**
A stronger dollar may hurt U.S. multinationals operating in global markets. Expensive U.S. exports may reduce U.S. employment. However, we argue that a stronger dollar will have minimal impact on U.S. exports and jobs. U.S. multinationals have established global subsidiaries in many countries. If input prices in one country, say, Taiwan, increase, U.S. multinationals seamlessly switch sourcing from Taiwan to other countries. They will choose the optimal network that minimizes overall costs.

Oil Dependence—Solvency—1AC

More gas production solves U.S. oil dependence

Baker Institute 12

• • ~James A. Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, "Shale Gas and U.S. National Security", Report ~%2349, 10-2011, http://www.bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-PolicyReport49.pdf-http://www.bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-PolicyReport49.pdf~~
    For the United States, the geopolitical impacts of rising domestic shale gas production are
    AND
    energy markets and prices than a high penetration of CNG passenger vehicles.24

Oil Dependence—Solvency—2AC

Greater U.S. gas solves transportation dependency on oil

Moniz et al 12

• • ~Main Chair on the Study, "The Future of Natural Gas", multidisciplinary MIT Study, 2012~
    The ample domestic supply of natural gas has stimulated interest in its use in transportation
    AND
    . Gasoline engines can be modified to run on methanol at modest cost.

Oil Dependence—Solvency—Ext.

Nat gas would replace OPEC imports

Evans 12
 ~Huw Evans, "Could Natural Gas Solve Our Oil Addiction? T. Boone Pickens Thinks So", Hybrid Cars, 3-1-2012, http://www.hybridcars.com/news/could-natural-gas-solve-our-oil-addiction-t-boone-pickens-thinks-so-42004.html~~
In a CNN interview Pickens said that the U.S. has gone 40
AND
from a much cheaper alternative fuel will likely cause gasoline prices to drop.

Oil Dependence—Impact—1AC

Oil dependence will bring about recession from the next price shock

Rubin ’11 (Jeff Rubin, Economist and author of Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller, "How do oil shocks cause recessions?", Globe and Mail Blog, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/how-do-oil-shocks-cause-recessions/article1882165/-http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/how-do-oil-shocks-cause-recessions/article1882165/, January 26, 2011, LEQ)

There are many ways that oil shocks affect the economy, and none of them
AND
when we do, get ready for another oil-induced global recession. 

Oil Dependence—Impact—2AC

Oil dependence destroys economic recovery

Gartenstein-Ross 08
 ~Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, 5-19-2008, "The high cost of oil dependence," Foundation for Defense of Democracies,http://www.defenddemocracy.org/index.php?option=com_content%26task=view%26id=11781606%26Itemid=102~~
Gal Luft, the executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security
AND
economic activity and tax revenues—stands at %24825 billion per year.

Oil Dependence—Impact—Ext.

LNG Shocks—Solvency—1AC

Greater U.S. LNG production will minimize LNG shocks

Moniz et al. 12

• • ~Main Chair on the Study, "The Future of Natural Gas", multidisciplinary MIT Study, 2012~
    Despite the fact that the United States is less reliant on LNG due to domestic
    AND
    the impact of the shock on any one region is reduced through arbitrage.

LNG Shocks—Impact—1AC

LNG shocks run up electricity prices

Whitman 11
~Austin F. Whitman, "Natural Gas Price Volatility: Lessons from Other Markets", Report for the American Clean Skies Foundation and the Task Force on Ensuring Stable Natural Gas Markets, M.J. Bradley %26 Associates LLC, 1-26-2011, http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Natural%20Gas%20Price%20Volatility%20-%20Lessons%20from%20Other%20Markets.pdf~~**
The future of LNG: The U.S. is poised to become a
AND
for natural gas in some markets. Future work might analyze this situation.

Electric prices are critical to the economy
Edison Electric Institute 06
~"Rising Electricity Costs: A Challenge For Consumers, Regulators, and Utilities", 2006, http://www.eei.org/whatwedo/PublicPolicyAdvocacy/StateRegulation/Documents/rising_electricity_costs.pdf~~**
Capital-intensive industries, such as the electric utility industry, often experience cycles
AND
it, and at a price we can afford over the long term.

LNG Shocks—AT: Volatility Now

LNG shocks are in the right direction now

Thomas 12

• • ~Jason M. Thomas, "Cheap Natural Gas and US Reindustrialization", The Carlyle Group: Global Alternative Asset Management, April 2012, http://www.carlyle.com/sites/default/files/April%202012%20-%20Cheap%20Natural%20Gas%20and%20U.S.%20Reindustrialization.pdf~~**
    More significantly, low cost power is also likely to change the composition of economic
    AND
    allow natural gas to gain a larger share of the transportation fuel market.

Hydrogen—Solvency—1AC

NG leads to hydrogen fuel cells

Vagus 12
 (Stephen, "Natural gas may lead to the success of hydrogen fuel cells," Hydrogen Fuel News, 5-31-12, www.hydrogenfuelnews.com/natural-gas-may-lead-to-the-success-of-hydrogen-fuel-cells/853979/, accessed 6-2-12, mss)

Natural gas may lead to the success of hydrogen fuel cells Inexpensive fossil-fuel
AND
may be able to gain the foothold they need with the federal government.

Key to the economy
Schwartz and Randall 04

• • ~Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, "How Hydrogen Can Save America", Wired, November 2004, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.04/hydrogen_pr.html~~**
    According to conventional wisdom, there are two ways for the US to reduce dependence
    AND
    the Apollo program itself, which spurred the development of early fuel cells.)

EUROPE/RUSSIA

Europe—Solvency—1AC

US NG key to EU energy security

Verrastro 12
(Frank, 30 years of energy experience including staff positions in the White House, Departments of Interior and Energy, former professor at the GWU Elliot School of International Affairs, serves on the advisory board of the National Renewable Fuels Laboratory (NREL), and as a member of CFR, and Conor Branch, "Developing America’s Unconventional Gas Resources," CSIS, December 2010, csis.org/files/publication/101209_Verrastro_UncontentionalGas_Web.pdf, accessed 5-22-12, mss) 

As U.S. natural gas production increases and LNG exports to the United
AND
restructuring of those gas supply contracts that are currently indexed to oil prices.

Europe—Solvency—2AC

Increased US gas is key to Europe gas—provides alternate supplies that are reliable, providing them European security—that’s Verrastro. 

AT: EU Shale Gas

====Environment, uncoordination, and poor prospects prevent EU gas development====
Ebinger et al 12
~Charles Ebinger, Kevin Massey, and Govinda Avasarala, Research Assistants at the Energy Security Initiative, "Evaluating the Prospects for Increased Exports of Liquefied Natural Gas from the United States", Energy Security Initiative at the Brookings Institute, January 2012, http://www.brookings.edu/~~/media/research/files/papers/2012/1/natural%20gas%20ebinger/natural_gas_ebinger_2.pdf-http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/1/natural gas ebinger/natural_gas_ebinger_2.pdf~
In the larger economies of Western Europe, which consume most of Russia’s exports,
AND
suggest that the prospects for reduced European reliance on Russian gas appear dim.

EU won’t develop their shale- structural and legal barriers
Dizard 12
 (John, "Familiar echoes in shale gas boom," Financial Times, 5-6-12, www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/75942e5c-944e-11e1-bb0d-00144feab49a.html~%23axzz1wD42vVtp, accessed 5-28-12, mss)

The Europeans, on the other hand, have been attempting to bluff Gazprom and
AND
ensure that the disruption of development is known to be offset with cash.

EU won’t develop gas resources- massive lobbying against
Michta 12
 (Andrew, Ph.D. from the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins, . Rhodes College M. W. Buckman Distinguished Professor of International Studies, former Woodrow Wilson Center Senior Scholar and  George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies National Security Studies professor, "Shale Storm," American Interest, Jan/Feb 2012, www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1168, accessed 5-28-12, mss)

Today there is intense lobbying against shale gas in Europe, all intertwined with national
AND
be able to get that money, and if so under what conditions?

No EU shale development- parochial interests trump
Michta 12
(Andrew, Ph.D. from the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins, . Rhodes College M. W. Buckman Distinguished Professor of International Studies, former Woodrow Wilson Center Senior Scholar and  George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies National Security Studies professor, "Shale Storm," American Interest, Jan/Feb 2012, www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1168, accessed 5-28-12, mss)

In theory, the European Union should be committed to breaking Gazprom’s near monopoly in
AND
states’ business-government relationships; in practice, unfortunately, they don’t.

Russia—Solvency—1AC

Higher U.S. gas production solves Russian energy imperialism—gives alternatives to Europe

Baker Institute 11

• • ~James A. Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, "Shale Gas and U.S. National Security", Report ~%2349, 10-2011, http://www.bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-PolicyReport49.pdf-http://www.bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-PolicyReport49.pdf~~
    The dramatic lessening of Europe’s dependence on Russian gas will likely have considerable geopolitical implications
    AND
    and other international initiatives that might not have the full support of Russia.

Russia—Solvency—2AC

Greater U.S. gas solves European dependency on Russia—frees up diplomatic flexibility and makes them more likely to join with U.S. objectives—that’s Baker Institute.

And, escalation over gas is likely again

Ebinger et. al 12
~Charles Ebinger, Kevin Massey, and Govinda Avasarala, Research Assistants at the Energy Security Initiative, "Evaluating the Prospects for Increased Exports of Liquefied Natural Gas from the United States", Energy Security Initiative at the Brookings Institute, January 2012, http://www.brookings.edu/~~/media/research/files/papers/2012/1/natural%20gas%20ebinger/natural_gas_ebinger_2.pdf-http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/1/natural gas ebinger/natural_gas_ebinger_2.pdf~
A large increase in U.S. LNG exports would have the potential to
AND
they are more reliant on Russian gas as a proportion of their energy mixes

And, it increases diplomatic flex
Baker Institute 12
~James A. Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, "Shale Gas and U.S. National Security", Report ~%2349, 10-2011, http://www.bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-PolicyReport49.pdf-http://www.bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-PolicyReport49.pdf~~
Given the impacts across scenarios already highlighted, it is quite obvious that shale development
AND
shale gas been limited to the Barnett shale play (see Figure 17).

Russia—Impact—1AC

Russian imperialism makes war with the U.S. inevitable

Blank ’7 (Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, "Russian Democracy, Revisited" Spring, http://www.securityaffairs.org/issues/2007/12/blank.php-http://www.securityaffairs.org/issues/2007/12/blank.php) Bankey
Gvosdev defends his brand of realism as a moral policy based on prudential calculations that
AND
very well succumb to imperial temptation, at the cost of international catastrophe.

Escalates to global nuclear war

Yesin 2007 (Colonel General Vladimir Senior Vice President of the Russian Academy of the Problems of Security, Defense, and Law. "Will America Fight Russia?;". Defense and Security, No 78. LN  July 2007)
Yesin: Should the Russian-American war begin, it will inevitably deteriorate into the Third World War. The United States is a NATO member and this bloc believes in collective security. In fact, collective security is what it is about.  Vladimirov: This war will inevitably deteriorate into a nuclear conflict. Regardless of what weapons will be used in the first phase.

Russia—Impact—2AC

Russia will utilize its energy leverage to create an aggressive foreign policy that is likely to bring it to conflict with the U.S.—makes it feel invulnerable in Europe, that’s Blank 07. 

And, Russia will be aggressive—enshrined in strategy
Weitz 11
~Richard Weitz, "Strategic Posture Review: Russia", World Politics Review, 12-1-2011, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/10792/strategic-posture-review-russia~~
The expansion of the Russian energy sector has unsurprisingly translated into increased influence in global
AND
through military force, as it did in its 2008 invasion of Georgia.

Russia—AT: Russia Just Minimizes Criticism

Russia will utilize its energy exports towards aggressive foreign policy

The political impact and economic leverage wielded by Russia on account of Europe’s increasing dependency
AND
of the European Union on Russian energy supplies portends an ominous European future.

Russia—AT: Europe Alternative Energy

Alt energy doesn’t solve European dependence—logistics, will, and disputes

Jones 12
~Jonathan Jones, Brigham Young University, "The EU, Russia, and energy security", Claremont-UC Undergraduate Research Conference on the European Union, Volume 2007, Issue 1, 2-15-2012, http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1004%26context=urceu~~**
Another oft-proposed solution to the European Union’s energy dilemma is the employment of
AND
issue of mandatory compliance is already dissuading current   members   of the European Union.

They’d fight over nuclear power
Jones 12
~Jonathan Jones, Brigham Young University, "The EU, Russia, and energy security", Claremont-UC Undergraduate Research Conference on the European Union, Volume 2007, Issue 1, 2-15-2012, http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1004%26context=urceu~~**
The competing states of the Europe a Union currently disagree on which renewable energy sources
AND
, presents a  clear  difficulty in the  development  of  alternate  and renewable resources.

Even if initiatives are adopted, they won’t be fulfilled
Jones 12
~Jonathan Jones, Brigham Young University, "The EU, Russia, and energy security", Claremont-UC Undergraduate Research Conference on the European Union, Volume 2007, Issue 1, 2-15-2012, http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1004%26context=urceu~~**
Policy initiatives, regarding energy, are not a new phenomenon in Europe.   The
AND
and  expectations  in  their  fulfillment, especially  when  compliance  is not  legally  binding.

Russia—AT: Europe Will Diversify

Diversification won’t solve—Europe’s fallen too far behind to develop its own natural gas
Craig 12
~Steven Craig, MA in International Affairs from the American University of Paris and a degree in Economics from Drake University. He works in Paris as an Oil Markets Analyst for an international energy consultancy, Europe’s Energy Future: On the Precipice of Long Term Dependency?, The Globalized World Post, 6-11-2012, http://thegwpost.com/2012/06/11/europes-energy-future-on-the-precipice-of-long-term-dependency/~~**
From 2008 through 2011, the consumption of petroleum products in OECD Europe fell by
AND
that have led Europe’s energy sector to the brink of long term dependency.

Russia—Impact—China-Japan War

Russia nat gas monopoly prevents adequate provision of Caspian gas
Paramonov et. al. 2009 (Vladimir Paramonov, Ph.D. (Political Science), independent expert (Tashkent, Uzbekistan)  Alexey Strokov, Independent expert (Tashkent, Uzbekistan)  Oleg Stolpovskiy, Independent military analyst (Tashkent, Uzbekistan), "Russia’s Foreign Policy: Central Asia—A View From Uzbekistan," http://www.ca-c.org/online/2009/journal_eng/cac-03/09.shtml) Bankey
Second, the current building up of Russia’s political and military presence in Central Asia
AND
allow Russia to achieve its main goal: wide strategic and tactical possibilities.

Caspian gas is key to Japanese energy security
Miyagawa 2009 (Manabu Miyagawa is Director of the Economic Security Division of the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs,"Japan’s Energy Security Policy," http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090201_bsa_miyagawa.pdf) Bankey
Another aspect of securing critical energy infrastructure for Japan is related to pipelines from Russia
AND
routes and the increase of supply, which will enhance global energy security. 

Leads to Chinese-Japanese war
Shulong and Rozman’7, Professor of International Relations at the School of Public Policy and Management/Deputy director of the Institute of International Strategic Studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing and Musgrave Professor of Sociology at Princeton University /Gilbert and Chu, "East Asian Security: Two Views", Center for Strategic Studies, November 23/ Mitchums
Competition is both inevitable and positive in the economic and technology areas. However,
AND
latter uses military means to protect Taiwan and attacks China or Chinese forces. 

Draws in the US and goes nuclear
NTI ’6, Nuclear Threat Initiative, Threat Reduction Agency created by CNN founder Ted Turner-http://www.nti.org/b_aboutnti/b1a.html and former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn-http://www.nti.org/b_aboutnti/b1b.html with security representatives from 10 different nations/ "Nuclear Conflict in the 21st Century: Reviewing the Chinese Nuclear Threat", October 18/
Any such situation would also involve the United States. The Treaty of Mutual Cooperation
AND
one contemplates the future of Sino-American relations in the nuclear context.

Extinction
Johnson ’1 (Chalmers Johnson, author of Blowback: the Costs and Consequences of American Empire, 2001, The Nation, p 20)
China is another matter.  No sane figure in the Pentagon wants a war with
AND
forward-deployed US forces on China’s borders have virtually no deterrent effect.

HEGEMONY

Hegemony/FP—Solvency—1AC

More US gas decreases our gas vulnerability, opens up foreign policy flex

Moniz et. al 12
~Main Chair on the Study, "The Future of Natural Gas", multidisciplinary MIT Study, 2012~
Greater international market liquidity would be beneficial to U.S. interests. U
AND
,ONGER SUPPLY CHAINS INCREASE THE VULNER ability of the natural gas infrastructure.

U.S. hegemonic decline causes global great-power war
Zhang %26 Shi 11 – Yuhan Zhang, researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Lin Shi, Columbia University, independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and consultant for the World Bank, January 22, 2011, "America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry," East Asia Forum, online: http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/

Over the past two decades, no other state has had the ability to seriously challenge the US military. Under these circumstances, motivated by both opportunity and fear, many actors have bandwagoned with US hegemony and accepted a subordinate role. Canada, most of Western Europe, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore and the Philippines have all joined the US, creating a status quo that has tended to mute great power conflicts.
However, as the hegemony that drew these powers together withers, so will the pulling power behind the US alliance. The result will be an international order where power is more diffuse, American interests and influence can be more readily challenged, and conflicts or wars may be harder to avoid.
As history attests, power decline and redistribution result in military confrontation. For example
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-creating Leviathan shaping the international system with democracy and rule of law.
Defining this US-centred system are three key characteristics: enforcement of property rights, constraints on the actions of powerful individuals and groups and some degree of equal opportunities for broad segments of society. As a result of such political stability, free markets, liberal trade and flexible financial mechanisms have appeared. And, with this, many countries have sought opportunities to enter this system, proliferating stable and cooperative relations.
However, what will happen to these advances as America’s influence declines? Given that America’s authority, although sullied at times, has benefited people across much of Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, the Balkans, as well as parts of Africa and, quite extensively, Asia, the answer to this question could affect global society in a profoundly detrimental way.
Public imagination and academia have anticipated that a post-hegemonic world would return to the problems of the 1930s: regional blocs, trade conflicts and strategic rivalry. Furthermore, multilateral institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank or the WTO might give way to regional organisations.
For example, Europe and East Asia would each step forward to fill the vacuum left by Washington’s withering leadership to pursue their own visions of regional political and economic orders. Free markets would become more politicised — and, well, less free — and major powers would compete for supremacy.
Additionally, such power plays have historically possessed a zero-sum element. In the late 1960s and 1970s, US economic power declined relative to the rise of the Japanese and Western European economies, with the US dollar also becoming less attractive. And, as American power eroded, so did international regimes (such as the Bretton Woods System in 1973).
A world without American hegemony is one where great power wars re-emerge, the liberal international system is supplanted by an authoritarian one, and trade protectionism devolves into restrictive, anti-globalisation barriers. This, at least, is one possibility we can forecast in a future that will inevitably be devoid of unrivalled US primacy.

Hegemony/FP—Solvency—2AC

More supplies solves dependence—prevents supply concerns from constraining foreign policy options, and increases our hegemonic posture—that’s Baker Institute

And, it buffs allied cohesion—that’s key
Moniz et. al 12
~Main Chair on the Study, "The Future of Natural Gas", multidisciplinary MIT Study, 2012~
Natural gas dependence could constrain U.S. foreign policy options. U.
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LNG infrastructure should be viewed as favoring U.S. security interests.

Soft Power—Solvency—1AC

US gas development builds soft power—creates diplomatic bridges
Freeland 11
~Cadet Nathenial Freeland, "The Strategic Importance of Shale Gas", Center for Strategic Leadership, Army War College, August 2011, http://www.csl.army.mil/usacsl/publications/IP16_11.pdf-http://www.csl.army.mil/usacsl/publications/IP16_11.pdf~~
Expanding international cooperation is another strategic justification of shale gas. 34 The United States
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of heightened competition with China and others for influence in the developing world.

IRAN

Iran—Solvency—1AC

====Higher U.S. gas production shuts off Iran’s ability to dodge sanctions—solves their nukes and aggressiveness====
Moniz et. al 12
~Main Chair on the Study, "The Future of Natural Gas", multidisciplinary MIT Study, 2012~
At the present time, economic sanctions against Tehran have been inhibiting natural gas export
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—a potential source of tension between the United States and India.30

Iran—Solvency—2AC

More gas causes Iran to lose energy leverage—prevents them from using gas exports to dodge sanctions. That buys time to build coalitions against Iranian nukes and prevents Iran from driving a wedge in international cooperation—that’s Moniz et. al

Discourages Iranian investment and kills energy leverage

Moniz et. al 12
~Main Chair on the Study, "The Future of Natural Gas", multidisciplinary MIT Study, 2012~
Geopolitically, the repercussions of expanding shale gas production are profound. To begin,
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growth in LNG imports is put off by at least two decades.18

Iran Impact—Sanctions

Those sanctions would also prevent Iranian nukes
Clawson 12
~Patrick Clawson is director of research at The Washington Institute, where he heads the Iran Security Initiative. Widely consulted as an analyst and media commentator, he has authored more than 150 articles about the Middle East and international economics as well as eighteen books or studies on Iran, "An Iranian Nuclear Breakout Is Not Inevitable", The Washington Institute, January 2012~
Sanctions are not a way to shock and awe a tar¬geted government. The nature
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nuclear weapons or using force under the cover of a per¬ceived nuclear umbrella.

Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons capability would escalates to full scale war and cause extinction
WIMBUSH ’7 (S. Enders, Hudson Institute Senior Fellow, Center for Future Security Strategies Director, "The End of Deterrence: A nuclear Iran will change everything." The Weekley Standard. 1/11/2007, http://www.weeklystandard.com/Utilities/printer_preview.asp?idArticle=13154%26R=162562FD5A-http://www.weeklystandard.com/Utilities/printer_preview.asp?idArticle=13154%26R=162562FD5A)
Iran is fast building its position as the Middle East’s political and military hegemon,
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will grow, and where deterrence, once broken, cannot be restored.