Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge: 

New Plan

Plan: The United States Federal Government should remove its tariffs on solar panels produced in the People’s Republic of China.

1AC – Trade War

Contention 1 is Trade War

Trade tensions with China are growing due to the solar tariff- an olive branch is key to avoid trade war

Ikenson 12

[ Daniel Ikenson- director of the Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, 3/5/12, http://www.cato.org/publications/free-trade-bulletin/trade-policy-priority-one-averting-uschina-trade-war]

Indeed, it is beyond doubt that certain Chinese policies have been provocative, discriminatory

AND

gestures, or even changes in tone that could help reduce bilateral frictions.

Solar tariff causes an escalating trade war

Doom et al 12 -- reporters @ Bloomberg (Justin, Ehren Goosens, William McQuillen, 5/25/12, "Trade War Looming as China Rebukes U.S. Support for Solar," http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-05-24/trade-war-seen-looming-as-china-rebukes-u-dot-s-dot-support-for-solar)

China’s allegation that renewable- energy subsidies in five U.S. states violate

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SolarWorld is, the louder China is going to be,” she said.

Trade war kills relations, free trade, and escalates to a shooting war

Droke 10 (Clif, Editor – Momentum Strategies Report, “America and the Next Major War’, Green Faucet, 3-29, http://www.greenfaucet.com/technical-analysis/america-and-the-next-major-war/79314)

In the current phase of relative peace and stability we now enjoy, many are

AND

hurt will surely retaliate and the entire world will suffer," writes Barker.

Nationalism magnifies the impact- confrontational policies cause conflict

Gries 12 (Peter Hays Gries is a professor of international and area studies at the University of Oklahoma and the director of its Institute for U.S.-China Issues, “Why China Resents Japan, and Us,” 8-23-12, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/24/opinion/why-china-resents-japan-and-us.html)

And although Chinese nationalist rage is primarily aimed at Japan, it is also directed

AND

difficult to contain — and will increase the likelihood of conflict in Asia.

US-Sino war will go nuclear

Kugler 06 – Professor of world politics @ Claremont Graduate University [Jacek Kugler (Consultant to the IMF, the World Bank, State Department, and Department of Defense. His publications on the causes and consequences of war use formal modeling and empirical analysis), “The Asian Ascent: Opportunity for Peace or Precondition for War?,” International Studies Perspectives, Volume 7, Issue 1, Pages 36-42

Given the fundamental importance of demographic and economic forces in establishing the roster of states

AND

of the enormous costs that reasonably would be anticipated from a nuclear war.

Specifically, the tariff causes global trade competition

Beebe 12

[Andrew Beebe, chief commercial officer of Suntech, the world's largest producer of solar panels. 3/28/12, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303404704577309583348171396.html]

Doing so would be a mistake. Trade barriers—large or small, at

AND

solar-industry growth and to solve our planet's energy and environmental crisis.

Protectionism causes extinction

Pazner 8 (Michael J., Faculty – New York Institute of Finance, Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, p. 137-138)

The rise in isolationism and protectionism will bring about ever more heated arguments and dangerous

AND

between Muslims and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.

Independently – the tariff kills the global economy, resiliency doesn’t apply

Tucker 12

[William, Nuclear Town Hall, 8/27/12, http://www.nucleartownhall.com/blog/william-tucker-let%E2%80%99s-just-admit-solar-needs-help-and-avoid-trade-war/]

Although the newspapers haven’t been paying much attention lately, the United States and China

AND

polysilicon on them. China too has its domestic industries that want protection.

Econ decline causes war

ROYAL 10 Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense

[Jedediah Royal, 2010, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215]

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict

AND

not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

The tariff kills broader energy and economic cooperation- undermines relations across the board

Barbier 12

[Edward B. Barbier is the John S. Bugas Professor of Economics, University of Wyoming, 5/28/12, http://chinausfocus.com/energy-environment/can-the-us-and-china-cooperate-over-climate-and-clean-energy/]

One of the few bright spots in recent international negotiations to replace the expiring 1997

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undermines the fragile beginnings of US and China cooperation over global climate change.

Signal of the plan is key -~-- protectionist measures convince Xi that the U.S. does not want to cooperate.

Bader, 2/14/2012 (Jeffrey – John C. Whitehead senior fellow in international diplomacy at the Brookings Institution, Rooting for Xi, Foreign Policy, p. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/02/14/rooting_for_xi_jinping?page=full)

Xi's visit does not signal new breakthroughs in Washington's relationship with Beijing. He is

AND

next decade to distrust America, rather than want to work with it.

Increasing pressure on China collapses relations – causes multiple scenarios for extinction

Stokes and Hachigian 12

[Jacob Stokes, policy analyst – National Security Network, and Nina Hachigian, senior fellow – Center for American Progress, 3/13/12, http://www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/2012/03/pdf/us_china_relations.pdf]

In contrast, the Obama administration’s approach is steady, clear-eyed, and

AND

such as climate change, pandemic disease, energy security, and terrorism.

1AC – China Pollution

Contention 2 is Chinese Pollution

Chinese solar industry collapse is imminent- the tariffs put the industry over the brink

AP 12

[Associated Press, 8/22/12, http://business.time.com/2012/08/22/chinese-solar-industry-faces-weak-sales-price-war/]

Chinese solar panel makers that grew fast over the past decade are suffering big losses

AND

said the possible anti-dumping measures contributed to “uncertain market conditions.”

U.S. China solar trade war destroys China’s solar industry- causes a shift back to coal

Bradsher 12

[Keith, NYT, 8/21/12, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/22/business/global/chinas-solar-panel-manufacturers-face-trade-and-finance-hurdles.html?_r=1]

China’s solar panel manufacturers, who dominate global sales with a two-thirds market

AND

coal-fired power and have a history of spills of toxic chemicals.

Mounting debt means China will not bail out its solar industry

Min 12

[Eric, Morning Whistle, 7/31/12, http://www.morningwhistle.com/html/2012/Company_Industry_0731/213306.html]

Coup de Grace for a Chinese Tier One? With Balance Sheets at the Breaking

AND

. Even with a White Knight Savior, STP’s (Suntech’s ticker symbol)

Tariff kills China shift to renewables- kills growth and causes pollution

Donald 12 – writer for Carbon Brief, MA in International Studies and Diplomacy from the School of Oriental and African Studies @ Cardiff University, specialized in global energy and climate policy (Ros, 8/14/12, "Is China the new green superpower?" http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/08/is-china-the-worlds-new-green-superpower)

China is certainly burning a lot of coal to fuel economic growth which is currently

AND

on coal, China now has one of the world's leading green industries.

China econ collapse goes nuclear

Kaminski 7 

(Antoni Z., Professor – Institute of Political Studies, “World Order: The Mechanics of Threats (Central European Perspective)”, Polish Quarterly of International Affairs, 1, p. 58)

As already argued, the economic advance of China has taken place with relatively few

AND

Australia and, first and foremost, the US clash in the region.

China fossil fuel dependence causes pollution and warming

Bradsher and Barboza 06

[Keith and David, NYT, 6/11/06, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/11/business/worldbusiness/11chinacoal.html?pagewanted=all]

One of China's lesser-known exports is a dangerous brew of soot, toxic

AND

that is big enough to serve all the households in Dallas or San Diego

Newest and BEST studies show that warming is real and anthropogenic

Muller 12 (Richard A., professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former MacArthur Foundation fellow, “The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic,” 7-28-12, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?_r=2andpagewanted=all)

CALL me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate

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satellite measurements that solar activity changes the brightness of the sun very little.

Warming is the most likely scenario for extinction

Deibel 7 (Terry L. Professor of IR @ National War College, 2007. “Foreign Affairs Strategy: Logic for American Statecraft”, Conclusion: American Foreign Affairs Strategy Today)

Finally, there is one major existential threat to American security (as well as

AND

States, but potentially to the continued existence of life on this planet.

Chinese pollution causes CCP instability and kills economic growth

Nankivell 06

[Nathan, Senior Research for the Canadian Department of National Defense, “China's Pollution Poses Security Threat in Asia,” 1/9/06, Japan Focus, News Analysis, http://news.pacificnews.org/news/view_article.html?article_id=fd2421fbe9b4fe1ac727e145f8719b4e]

As pollution and environmental degradation in China worsens, the Communist government has been unable

AND

a result, the CCP could be challenged to legitimize its continued control.

Cuts to China solar specifically triggers instability

Xinhua 12

[China Daily, 9/4/12, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-09/04/content_15731380.htm]

Miao Liansheng, chairman of the board of Yingli Green Energy, one of the

AND

the field have made Chinese PV companies competitively stronger in the world market.

Pollution pushes party instability over the brink – causes extinction

Yee and Storey 02

[Herbert Yee, Professor of Politics and IR, Hong Kong Baptist University --AND-- Ian Storey, Lecturer in Defence Studies at Deakin, 02

“The China Threat: Perceptions, Myths and Reality,” p5]

The fourth factor contributing to the perception of a China threat is the fear of

AND

disintegrating China would also pose a threat to its neighbours and the world.

Specifically, causes nuclear war with Russia

Nankivell 9

[Nathan, Senior Researcher at the Office of the Special Advisor Policy, Canadien Department of National Defence, “China's Pollution and the Threat to Domestic and Regional Stability”, Asia-Pacific Journal, 3-21, http://japanfocus.org/-Nathan-Nankivell/1799]

Moreover, protests serve as a venue for the politically disaffected who are unhappy with

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in full-scale war between two powerful, nuclear-equipped nations.

Extinction

Sharavin, 2001 (Alexander, The Third Threat, What the Papers Say, 10/3, Lexis)

Russia may face the "wonderful" prospect of combating the Chinese army, which

AND

both, and even against the first frost of a possible nuclear winter.

Chinese environmental destruction from coal independently causes extinction
Salon 97

[ MARK HERTSGAARD, He embarked upon a seven-year global tour to investigate the issue of environmental degradation. The journey spanned four continents, 19 countries and hundreds of interviews.[1] The published result was a wide-ranging book called Earth Odyssey: Around the World in Search of Our Environmental Future, 10/29/1997. “The real China threat,” http://www.salon.com/news/1997/10/29news.html.]

China's environmental disaster threatens

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by the 60 to 80 percent recommended by U.N. scientists.

Removing the tariff solves Chinese solar power – eliminates reliance on coal and solves warming and pollution

Gallagher and Gallagher 12

[ Kelly Sims Gallagher is associate professor of energy and environmental policy at The Fletcher School, Tufts University. Kevin P. Gallagher is associate professor of international relations at Boston University, 5/22/12, http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/05/22/guest-post-blinded-by-the-solar-light/#axzz1vtSGjVvk]

The Obama Administration’s preliminary decision to impose a 31 per cent tariff on solar panels

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Administration should applaud it and do its part to correct market distortions too.

Reducing barriers to investment between the U.S. and China is key to a global warming solution

Victor 09

[David, professor at the University of California, San Diego, in the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies and director of the Laboratory on International Law and Regulation, 2/10/09, http://www.hoover.org/publications/defining-ideas/article/5294]

Serious solutions to the twin problems of energy security and global climate change hinge on

AND

and understand each other. They still have a long way to go.