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| 09/22/2012 | GSU AFFTournament: GSU | Round: 1 | Opponent: | Judge: -~-- Prolif—1ACDOD Small Modular reactors are vital to the survival of a domestic civilian SMR Market- incentives are keyAndres and Breetz 11 (February 18, Two new entries to market for small modular reactors, Richard ¶ B. Andres is a Senior Fellow at the National Defense University. Hanna L. Breetz is a doctoral candidate in the Department of Political Science at The Massachusetts Institute of Technology, http://theenergycollective.com/dan-yurman/52074/two-new-entries-market-small-modular-reactors) Unfortunately, the technology for ….. either U.S. military or commercial use. U.S. SMR’s would be exported globallyTri-City Herald, 12 (Lawmakers push for small modular nuclear reactors in Tri-Cities, June 21, 2012, http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2012/06/21/1994865/lawmakers-push-for-small-modular.html#storylink=cpy) If manufacturing the small modular reactors is …… to scale up production if demand increases. U.S. leadership in SMR’s is key- sets the standard for global commercializationLevy, 12 (Edward Levy recently graduated with an MSc in Globalisation and Development from London University’s School of Oriental and African Studies, “Small Modular Reactors: What’s on the Horizon for 2012?” http://analysis.nuclearenergyinsider.com/small-modular-reactors/small-modular-reactors-what%E2%80%99s-horizon-2012) While Europe, Russia, China, Korea …… commercial avenues could quickly follow. Warming is at a tipping point- global commercialization of SMR’s reduces developing countries greenhouse emissions avoids the effects of warmingsKessides and Ioannis, 12 (Ioannis N. Kessides Development Research Group, The World Bank, and Vladimir Kuznetsov, Consultant, The World Bank, Small Modular Reactors for Enhancing Energy Security in Developing Countries, 14 August 2012, www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability) Increasing concerns related to energy supply security and …… significant advantages in terms overall simplicity, modularity and speed of build, passive safety features, proliferation resistance, and reduced financial risk. Anthropogenic global warming causes extinction – emissions cuts solveCostello 11 (Anthony, Institute for Global Health, University College London, Mark Maslin, Department of Geography, University College London, Hugh Montgomery, Institute for Human Health and Performance, University College London, Anne M. Johnson, Institute for Global Health, University College London, Paul Ekins, Energy Institute, University College London (“Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action” May 2011 vol. 369 no. 1942 1866-1882 Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society) Advocacy about the health consequences will ensure that climate change …….making many environments uninhabitable. It’s anthropogenicRahmstorf, 08 (Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics @ Potsdam University, Member of the German Advisory Council on Climate Change, Global Warming: Looking Beyond Kyoto, ed. Ernesto Zedillo, Prof. IR @ Yale, p. 42-49) It is time to turn to statement B: human …….., including myself) that anthropogenic global warming is a reality with which we need to deal. Arguments to the contrary are asinine – most recent scientific consensus shows CO2 is the main cause, the world is rapidly warmingEnvironmental Defense Fund 9, a US-based nonprofit environmental advocacy group, “Global Warming Myths and Facts,” 1/13/2009, http://mrgreenbiz.wordpress.com/2009/01/13/global-warming-myths-and-facts-2/ There is no debate among scientists ….. range for future climatic change. -~-- Heg—1ACContention 2 is HegemonyElectric Grid is susceptible now – Aging, weather, and cyber warfare - SMR as alternative energy is key to resolving issuesRobitaille 12 George – US army war college on security - Colonel Thomas J. Sexton Department of Military Strategy, Planning, and Operations “Small Modular Reactors: The Army’s Secure Source of Energy?” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA561802 In recent years, the U.S Department of …… actionable cyber security alerts and information products. EMP AttackTilford 7-24 Robert - Military Affairs Examiner - Policy and Issues “EMP attack Could Cripple Us” http://www.examiner.com/article/emp-attack-could-cripple-us According to a foreign press report, a nuclear ….. out national grid, the water and sewage systems, everything that runs on electronics. Military is 99% dependent on the grid – collapse would wreck American dominanceMaloof 9-12 Michael - staff writer for WND and G2Bulletin, is a former senior security policy analyst in the office of the secretary of defense. “Congress Told U.S Life Unsustainable after EMP” Error! Hyperlink reference not valid. WASHINGTON – Congress today was told ….. seriously and put up the capital investment. “The question is how to do that,” he said. American hegemony is the reason for the current international order of peace and stability – the alternative to US power is multipolar chaos and great power war, empirics prove and critics are wrongKAGAN 12 – senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution (Robert Kagan, Yale graduate, MPP from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and a PhD in US history from American University; “Why the World Needs America”; published 2/11/12 and adapted from "The World America Made”; available at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203646004577213262856669448.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories; JN) History shows that world orders, including our ……in armaments on both land and sea. Hegemony empirically deescalates conflict and is comparatively better than multipolarity – must keep U.S heg to maintain orderBarnett 11 (Thomas P.M, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis and Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads It is worth first examining the larger picture: ……. the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding. It influences the liberal trade order Zhang and Shi 1/22 - 11 – *Yuhan Zhang is a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.; Lin Shi is from Columbia University. She also serves as an independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and a consultant for the World Bank in Washington, D.C. (America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/) Thus, the global distribution of power is ….. we can forecast in a future that will inevitably be devoid of unrivalled US primacy. SMR’s provide an alternative source for DoD energy – gets around grid collapseRobitaille 12 George – US army war college on security - Colonel Thomas J. Sexton Department of Military Strategy, Planning, and Operations “Small Modular Reactors: The Army’s Secure Source of Energy?” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA561802 The interdependence of modern infrastructures …… sustainable energy technologies. -~-- Plan TextThe United States federal government should substantially increase financial incentives for small nuclear energy modular reactors for the Department of Defense in the United States.-~-- Solvency—1ACSMRs are comparativly better that current tech and other sources—consistently, self-sufficiency, and cleanCarmen et al 10 (Commander Herbert E., is a Senior Military Fellow at the Center for a New ¶ American Security; Christine Parthemore, is the Bacevich Fellow at the Center for a New American Security; Will Rogers, is a Research Assistant at the Center for a New American Security; “Broadening Horizons: Climate Change and the U.S. Armed Forces, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Broadening%20Horizons_Carmen%20Parthemore%20Rogers.pdf) A persistent question that civilian and ……. necessary for nuclear facilities. SMRs solve—alleviate vulnerability, deter an attack, and have clear safety mechanismsLoudermilk 11 (Micah J., March 27, Research Associate for the Energy and Environmental Security Policy program with the Institute for National Strategic Studies at National Defense University, “Small Nuclear Reactors: Enabling Energy Security for Warfighters,” http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/small-nuclear-reactors-enabling-energy-security-for-warfighters) As the NDU report argues though, small nuclear …….., and lower operational requirements. Now is key—there is a sense of urgencyCarmen et al 10 (Commander Herbert E., is a Senior Military Fellow at the Center for a New ¶ American Security; Christine Parthemore, is the Bacevich Fellow at the Center for a New American Security; Will Rogers, is a Research Assistant at the Center for a New American Security; “Broadening Horizons: Climate Change and the U.S. Armed Forces, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Broadening%20Horizons_Carmen%20Parthemore%20Rogers.pdf) The question of whether or not to locate …… pressing policy question. Government investment is key—two reasonsa. Creates a level-playing field—sustains private involvement in the long-termRosner 11¶ (Robert and Stephen, Energy Policy Institute at Chicago, “Small Modular Reactors – Key to Future Nuclear Power Generation in the U.S.”, Technical Paper, Revision 1, November 2011, https://epic.sites.uchicago.edu/sites/epic.uchicago.edu/files/uploads/EPICSMRWhitePaperFinalcopy.pdf) Successful commercialization of SMRs will require a “level playing field” in terms of federal financial incentives relative to other clean energy generation technologies. Wind and solar energy currently qualify for a production tax credit (PTC), which can be converted into either an investment tax credit (ITC), or monetized in the form of a cash grant from the U.S. Treasury. 62 Large commercial LWRs also can qualify for a PTC, which is capped at 6,000 MW of capacity. Early SMR deployments (LEAD or FOAK plants) potentially could meet the statutory 2021 commercial operations date (COD) to qualify for the existing PTC, but would not otherwise meet the current Department of Treasury administrative criteria, including the 2014 date for start of construction. 63 Acceleration of SMR deployment activities to serve national energy policies will require government incentives. Absent government incentives, there is no assurance that current privately funded efforts will be carried to fruition, and even if so, on what schedule. b. Necessary to provide risk mitigation and maintain leadership – absent plan, leadership will dwindleFertel 11 (Marvin, “Testimony for the Record on S. 512, the Nuclear Power 2021 Act, a Bill on Small Reactor Development”, Committee on Energy and Natural Resources at the United States Senate) The economic, energy security and environmental ……. nuclear leadership. | ||
| 10/07/2012 | Kentucky 1ACTournament: Kentucky | Round: 6 | Opponent: Kansas | Judge: Matt Struth Obama is actively pursuing civilian SMR’s now but the Marine Corps should take a lead role in SMR production- taking a backseat undermines energy security Energy vulnerability undermines every aspect of Marine Corp readiness and effectiveness- key to our expeditionary deterrence SMR’s are key- operational vulnerability undermines Marine Corps missions Marine Corps are vital to expeditionary power projection- prevents global power wars- de-escalates all major conflicts Effective Marine Corps military presence is necessary to de-escalate armed conflicts in Asia Extinction- High probability Adv 2 Marine-SMR technology will create Co-generation de-salinization plants- Naval expertise is key Massive water shortages coming now- nuclear desalinization plants are key SMR- desalinization plants solve water scarcity – escalates to conflicts Water shortages cause instability, failed states and global conflict—not cooperation These conflicts go nuclear Indo-Pak water scarcity’s coming – causes escalatory disputes Goes nuclear Solvency NRC Regs don’t limit – no barriers to acquisition DOD incentives are key- allows for rapid commercialization DOD unique spurs commercialization and adoption No workforce shortage DOD-DOE cooperation is key- allows for successful commercialization These conflicts will go nuclear- only SMR’s solve Nuclear incentives now And more by the end of September 50 DOD energy demonstrations happening now PLAN TEXT FOR ROUND 8 - The United States federal government should through the Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program create a nuclear energy working group that substantially increases small modular reactors for the Marine Core in the United States | ||
| 11/07/2012 | 2AC- QER CPTournament: Kentucky | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
Hess 7-26 (Michael, Office of Public Affairs, New Media Specialist, Office of Public Affairs, “Report: Tech Review Takes Snapshot of Energy Research,” 7-26-12, http://energy.gov/articles/report-tech-review-takes-snapshot-energy-research, accessed 9-23-12, ara)
“Resolved” doesn’t imply immediacy or certainty.
Should doesn’t mean mandatory Perm do both No implementation Barlas 12 Stephen, Columnist @ Financial Executive, 1/1, Lexis Kaminker, 12 Cuttino, 12 (Phyllis Cuttino, Director, Pew …… a rapidly emerging new sector. PCAST 10 DSB 8 Defense Science Board Task Force on DoD Energy Strategy, Feb 2008, More Figh -Less Fuel, www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/reports/ADA477619.pdf Moniz 12 Ernest Moniz, Cecil and Ida Green Professor of Physics and Engineering Systems and Director of the Energy Initiative at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Former Clinton Administration Under Secretary of the Department of Energy and as Associate Director for Science in the Office of Science and Technology Policy ; serves on the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, 11/15/11, Quadrennial Energy and Technology Reviews, web.mit.edu/mitei/views/testimony/111115-quadrennial-energy-and-technology-reviews.html | ||
| 11/07/2012 | 2AC ElectionsTournament: Kentucky | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Romney will win Huffington post 10-3 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/art-levine/can-democratic-convention_b_1860015.html NCS 10 Nuclear case study - through energy innovation tracker. http://energyinnovation.us /wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/EIT-NuclearCaseStudy.pdf Yurman 12 Dan - Dan - Project Manager at Vantage Partners LLC, Master, Urban and Regional Planning at University of Colorado at Denver “Competition heats up for DOE SMR funding” http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2012/04/20/competition-heats-up-for-doe-smr-funding/ no link – GoP won’t politicize the plan Davenport ’12 (Coral Davenport is the energy and environment correspondent for National Journal. Prior to joining National Journal in 2010, Davenport covered energy and environment for Politico, and before that, for Congressional Quarterly, “Pentagon's Clean-Energy Initiatives Could Help Troops—and President Obama”, http://www.nationaljournal.com/pentagon-s-clean-energy-initiatives-could-help-troops-and-president-obama-20120411?mrefid=site_search, April 11, 2012, LEQ) Kidd 10 Steve, Director of Strategy and Research at the World Nuclear Association", August 24, "Nuclear power – is it too big and remote to be accepted?", www.neimagazine.com/story.asp?storyCode=2057283 Bisconti 12 (Ann Stouffer, President of Bisconti Research, Nationally known expert on public opinion and communications research and has advised many companies and organizations on communications strategies, Member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research, Elected for two terms on the Board of Directors of the American Nuclear Society, Provided consultation on risk communication projects to the American Medical Association, the Electric Power Research Institute, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Served on review committees for the Chicago Academy of Sciences, the Edison Electric Institute, the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Attended Harvard University, McGill University, and The Union Institute, On Nuclear Energy and Public Opinion, http://neinuclearnotes.blogspot.com/) Whitman and Avila 12 Christine Todd, former EPA administrator and New Jersey governor, is the co-chair of the Clean and Safe Energy (CASEnergy) Coalition and Karen, president of Hispanic Elected Local Officials and a member of the CASEnergy Coalition, "Nuclear energy = green jobs, economic growth in Fla., beyond", June 22, articles.orlandosentinel.com/2012-06-22/opinion/os-ed-nuclear-energy-florida-jobs-062212-20120621_1_nuclear-energy-green-jobs-hispanic-community Stanage 11 (Niall, The Hill Writer, “Obama, Republicans prepare for 2012 Florida election showdown,” 6/20, http://thehill.com/homenews/news/167239-a-storm-brews-in-florida-ahead-of-2012-election) | ||
| 11/07/2012 | 2AC Fiscal CliffTournament: Kentucky | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Fernholz 10-4 Tim a former staff writer for the Prospect. His work has been published by Newsweek, The New Republic, The Nation, The Guardian, and The Daily Beast. He is also a Research Fellow at the New America Foundation. “Maybe the fiscal cliff was actually a stroke of genius” http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/us-economy-presidential-election-fiscal-cliff/10/4/2012/id/44688#ixzz28XOuR6VS FT, 9-30 (Foreign Times, Debt limit lurks in fiscal cliff talks, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/157f7090-0b17-11e2-afb8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz28OmrWPWw) News Tribune 12 (Tri-City Herald, “Lawmakers prod energy secretary on reactor project”, 7-8-12, http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/07/08/v-lite/2208105/lawmakers-prod-energy-secretary.html, accessed 8-2-12) Kidd 10 Steve, Director of Strategy and Research at the World Nuclear Association", August 24, "Nuclear power – is it too big and remote to be accepted?", www.neimagazine.com/story.asp?storyCode=2057283 | ||
| 11/07/2012 | 2AC NeolibTournament: Kentucky | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: the only moral framework Allenby ‘7 (Brad, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Arizona State University, “The Benefits of Our Hardwired Need to Consume,” GreenBiz.com, March 7, 2007, http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2007/03/08/the-benefits-our-hardwired-need-consume) Indur Goklany 10, policy analyst for the Department of the Interior – phd from MSU, “Population, Consumption, Carbon Emissions, and Human Well-Being in the Age of Industrialization (Part III — Have Higher US Population, Consumption, and Newer Technologies Reduced Well-Being?)”, April 24, http://www.masterresource.org/2010/04/population-consumption-carbon-emissions-and-human-well-being-in-the-age-of-industrialization-part-iii-have-higher-us-population-consumption-and-newer-technologies-reduced-well-being/#more-9194 Aberdeen 3, Author and Philanthropist, ‘3 Ann F. Wolfgram 5, junior fellow at Massey College – Phd in history from Toronto, “Population, Resources and Environment: A Survey of the Debate”, January 1, http://www.voxfux.com/features/malthusian_theory/malthusian_theory.htm | ||
| 11/07/2012 | 2AC- DOD Trade-offTournament: Kentucky | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Voss 11 Susan the President of the Global Nuclear Network Analysis. orked for the Air Force Weapons Laboratory in Albuquerque on space nuclear power. Susan graduated from the University of New Mexico with a BS and MS in Nuclear Engineering in 1985http:nucleardiner.com/forums/4-nuclear-power/230-congress-passes-funding-for-smr-program-given-the-field-of-concepts-what-would-you-fund Barratino 12 William - Chief Executive Officer/Chief Technology Officer. Global Broadband Solutions,. http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2012/01/23/small-modular-reactors-on-military-installations/ ITA, 11 (International Trade Administration, Department of Commerce, “The Commercial Outlook forU.S. Small Modular Nuclear Reactors,” Manufacturing and Services Competitiveness Report, February 2011) Saraweitz et al, 12 (Daniel Sarewitz Co-Director, Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes, Arizona State University Samuel Fernstrom Senior Climate Policy Advisor, Clean Air Task Force John Alic Consultant Travis Doom Program Specialist, Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes, Arizona State University Joseph Chaisson Research and Technical Director, Clean Air Task Force Armond Cohen Executive Director, Clean Air Task Force Nate Gorence Associate Director for Energy Innovation, Bipartisan Policy Center Suzanne Landtiser Graphic Designer, Fine Line Studio, “ENERGY INNOVATION at the DEPARTMENT of DEFENSE ASSESSING THE OPPORTUNITIES,” http://www.catf.us/resources/publications/files/Energy_Innovation_at_DoD.pdf) Willard 12 Martin P. “Preparing for Sequestration and Budget Cuts” http://www.wileyrein.com/publications.cfm?sp=articlesandnewsletter=3andid=7833 | ||
| 30 | 11/11/2012 | Airborne Wind Aff - 1AC - Cargo/Navy Advantage [Shirley]Tournament: Shirley | Round: 6 | Opponent: Missouri State GN | Judge: Mikaela The Cargo Shipping industry is facing a fuel crisis that will skyrocket prices, but AWE systems can solve
In April 2008, the International …. the Clean Cargo Working Group8.
That Uniquely causes multiple scenarios for war and extinction Rosen, 10 (Deputy General Counsel at the Center for Naval Analyses and Professor of Homeland Security Law and Policy at George Washington University) 2010 “Energy Independence and Climate Change: The Economic and National Security Consequences of Failing to Act” University of Richmond Law Review, Lexis
There is a growing consensus in … archipelago would be held hostage.110
This crisis will undermine global trade and domestic policies
The rapid growth in global … from 2020 or 2025.71 Results in Economic nationalism and WarGarten in ‘9 Jeffrey Garten, professor at the Yale School of Management. “The Dangers of Turning Inward”. March 5, 2009. Wall Street Journal. http:~/~/www.business.illinois.edu/aguilera/Tea ching/WSJ09_Dangers_of_Turning_pdf
The last time we saw … now falling back into poverty? Shippings key to naval powerAlberto, et al., 5 (Lieutenant Colonel Ronald P., U.S. Army, Colonel Michael G. Archuleta, U.S. Air Force, Lieutenant Colonel Steven H. Bills, U.S. Air Force, Commander William A. Bransom, U.S. Navy, Mr. Kenneth Cohen, Department of State, Commander William A. Ebbs, U.S. Navy, George Manjgaladze, Ministry of Defense, Republic of Georgia, Commander Elizabeth B. Myhre, U.S. Navy, Audrea M. Nelson, DA, Robert L. Riddick, Department of Defense, Colonel Christopher M. Ross, U.S. Army, Julia N. Ruhnke, DA, Lieutenant Colonel Gregory M. Ryan, U.S. Marine Corps, Colonel David D. Thompson, U.S. Air Force, Commander Hugh D. Wetherald, U.S. Navy, Dr. Mark Montroll, faculty at the Industrial College of the Armed Forces, Dr. Michael Farbman, USAID, faculty at the Industrial College of the Armed Forces, Captain David B. Hill, U.S. Coast Guard, faculty at the Industrial College of the Armed Forces, “SHIPBUILDING”, The Industrial College of the Armed Forces, National Defense University, 2005, http://www.ndu.edu/icaf/programs/academic/industry/reports/2005/pdf/icaf-is-report-shipbuilding-2005.pdf,) In conclusion, our study found that … to the value to the nation of the vessel. Escalates to Great power warsConway et al 7 James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” October, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf Deter major power war. No other … extended campaigns ashore.
Mobile Airborne Wind Energy platforms would be able to propel Naval Vessels Canale et al 10 M. Canale , L. Fagiano , M. Milanese , V. Razza Politecnico di Torino, Dipartimento di Automatica e Informatica, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24 – 10129 Torino – Italy 2010 “Control of tethered airfoils for sustainable marine transportation”IEEE International Conference on Control Applications Part of 2010 IEEE Multi-Conference on Systems and Control Yokohama, Japan, September 8-10, 2010 http:~/~/ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=andarnumber=5611085url:http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=andarnumber=5611085
The described concept of high-…the wing and the lines. | |
| 30 | 11/11/2012 | Airborne Wind Aff - 1AC - Air Force Advantage [Shirley]Tournament: Shirley | Round: 6 | Opponent: Missouri State GN | Judge: Mikaela The Air Force is facing an energy crisis - threatens future power projection capabilities Donley and Schwartz 12 | Secretary of the Air Force AND USAF General (Michael and Norton, "Energy Horizons: United States Air Force Energy SandT Vision 2011-2026," http:~/~/ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stam p.jsp?tp=andarnumber=5611085url:http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stam%20p.jsp?tp=andarnumber=5611085 The Air Force faces daunting … secure now and in the future.
Airpower key to building multilateral institutions in the Asia-Pacific region, It is also critical to deter regional and great power conflict – Results in Miscalc and war Air power stands as a … miscalculation and ultimately conflict.
Continued Power projection is key to maintain the stable transition to a regional system and checking China from aggressively expanding into the south china sea It is not only location and … geographical centrality to the region.
Nationalist island wars will draw in everyone.Sorman 12 - City Journal contributing editor Guy Sorman, “Where Nationalism Still Matters,” City Journal, 20 August 2012, pg. http://tinyurl.com/8kas2u3
Too often, we see East Asia only from an … dissolves nationalist zeal. Island disputes will go nuclearHellman 12 – Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering @ Stanford University (% style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:Baskerville" %)Martin edu/~~hellman/(% style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:Baskerville" %) (His current project, Defusing the Nuclear org/(%%), has been endorsed by a former Director of the National Security Agency, Stanford's President Emeritus, and two Nobel Laureates), “Another Early Warning Sign,” Defusing Nuclear Threats, Posted on September 28, 2012url:http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2012/09/28/another-early-warning-sign/||title="3:18 pm", pg. http://tinyurl.com/9r9vdhr
The “World Anti-Fascist War” …e will realize that potential.
AWE solves those concerns Cahoon 11 Troy L. Masters, Aeronautical Engineering at U.S. Air Force Institute of Technology, Captail USAF, Edwards Research Site Operations Officer Air Force Research Laboratory. “airborne wind energy: implementation and design for the u.s. air force” march 2011 department of the air force air university air force institute of technology AWE could be very … is not available.
The plan uniquely solves relations Conrad 11 – Research associates with the Global Public Policy Institute Björn Conrad (PhD candidate @ University of Trier. His research focuses on China’s domestic climate policy. MA in Chinese Studies, Political Science and Economics from the University of Trier and a Master in Public Policy from Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.) and Mirjam Meissner (MA in Chinese Studies, Political Science and Economics from the Free University), “Catching a Second Wind Changing the Logic of International Cooperation in China’s Wind Energy Sector,” Global Public Policy Institute, GPPi Policy Paper No. 12, February 2011
China’s wind energy …¶ international partnerships. Pg. 8-9
Independently, AWE is key to restore military readiness Cahoon 11 Troy L. Masters, Aeronautical Engineering at U.S. Air Force Institute of Technology, Captail USAF, Edwards Research Site Operations Officer Air Force Research Laboratory. “airborne wind energy: implementation and design for the u.s. air force” march 2011 department of the air force air university air force institute of technology
As long as the U.S. is dependent … developmental and security goals.
American hegemony is the reason for the current international order of peace and stability – the alternative to US power is multipolar chaos and great power war, empirics proveKAGAN 12 – senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution (Robert Kagan, Yale graduate, MPP from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and a PhD in US history from American University; “Why the World Needs America”; published 2/11/12 and adapted from "The World America Made”; available at http:~/~/online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203646004577213262856669448.html?mod=WSJ_hp_html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories(%%); JN)
History shows that world orders, including … the American order came into being.
Hegemony empirically deescalates conflict and is comparatively better than multipolarity – must keep U.S heg to maintain orderBarnett 11 (Thomas P.M, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis and Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http:~/~/www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads It is worth first examining the larger … for the Pacific Century now unfolding. | |
| 30 | 11/11/2012 | Airborne Wind Aff - 1AC - Plan Text [Shirley]Tournament: Shirley | Round: 6 | Opponent: Missouri State GN | Judge: Mikaela The United States federal government should reduce airspace restrictions on airborne wind energy production in the United States. | |
| 30 | 11/11/2012 | Airborne Wind Aff - 1AC - Solvency/Thumpers [Shirley]Tournament: Shirley | Round: 6 | Opponent: Missouri State GN | Judge: Mikaela It’s cost competitive in the market MacCleery 11 Brian, National Instruments- Principal Product Manager for Clean Energy Technology at National Instruments, MS, Electrical Engineering at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Trade Journal “The AdvenT of Airborne Wind PoWer” Jan. 2011 http:~/~/windsystemsmag.com/media/pdfs/Articles/2011_January/0111_pdf
So why hasn’t airborne … we are learning from it.”
There are several Federal restrictions limiting the testing and development of AWE Federal Register 11 Federal Register/Vol. 76, No. 235/Wednesday, December 7, 2011/Proposed Rules Docket No.: FAA–2011–1279; Notice No. 11–07 Notification for Airborne Wind Energy Systems (AWES) http://www.energykite systems.net/FAA/FAA-2011-1279-0001.htm
Given the altitudes that … portions may be applicable.)
These restrictions are preventing adequate research and development Legget 12 Nickolaus E. Leggett, Licensed aircraft Pilot, certified electronics technician (ISCET and AND 07 To the Federal Aviation Administration: Formal Comments of Nickolaus E. Leggett
The first AWES prototypes should be … and so a fairly liberal testing environment is needed.
Investment now but restrictions need to be removed
Although boundary layer … as floating cell phone towers. Petro majors will participate -~-- it's a cost savings.Texier 11 - Innovation Analyst @ com/search?search=andtitle=Innovation+Analyst+-+CleantechandsortCriteria=RandkeepFacets=trueandcurrentTitle=C||title="Find users with this title" EDF Maud Texier “Offshore Oil and Gas: a renewable energy?,” Sia com/author/admin||title="View all posts by Sia Partners", July 1, 2011url:http://energy.sia-partners.com/1506||title="9:03 pm" pg. http://tinyurl.com/c7pzupg
The IEA announces in its last annual report … energy against onshore projects.
Loan guarantees now.Brune 9/28 - Executive director @ The Sierra org/(%%) Michael Brune, “Mighty Wind,” The Huffington Post, Posted: 09/28/2012 5:26 pm
Did you notice that last …e also kicked in $100 million.
Wind production increasing. Jennings 9/25 - Green America’s Clean Energy Victory com/CleanEnergyVictoryBonds||target="_blank" Outreach Fellow “Wind and Solar Are Shining Examples of US Economic Success, Potential, and Jobs (but Under Threat),” Planet Save, September 25, 2012, pg. http://tinyurl.com/94ph6dr
Recent reports from IMS Research … was 40% lower than in 2010.
Battle coming over wind PTC in the lame duck Chokshi and Terris, 11/6 (Niraj Chokshi and Ben Terris, 11/6/2012, “National Journal Daily - AM Edition,” Factiva)
ENERGY Wind Fight Reaches Homestretch After simmering for the better part of this … to eliminate most government subsidies.
Will burn Obama’s capital Assis, 11/7 (Claudia, 11/7/2012, “Tighter energy regulations on the way? Energy one of the hardest hit sectors after Obama re-election,” http:~/~/www.marketwatch.com/story/tighter-energy-regulations-on-the-way-2012-11-07?link=MW_latest_com/story/tighter-energy-regulations-on-the-way-2012-11-07?link=MW_latest_news(% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt" %))
Alternative energy may have better … political capital to extend it.
Better than conventional energy – removing restriction key Inman 9-9 Mason - graduate of the Science Writing program at the University of California in Santa Cruz, Winning a Middlebury Fellowship in Environmental Journalism, journalist who covers climate and energy issues. “Energy High in the Sky EXPERT PERSPECTIVES on Airborne Wind Energy Systems” http://nearzero.org/
It is well established that winds … be more suitable for replacing fossil fuels for base-load power.
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| 02/03/2013 | AWE 1AC - Navy round 6Tournament: Navy | Round: 6 | Opponent: | Judge: Hegemony
Contention 1: Power Military oil dependence destroys power projectionFitzpatrick ‘11 (Senior Policy Advisor for Clean Energy at Third Way, Josh Freed, Vice President for Clean Energy at Third Way, and Mieke Eoyan, Director for National Security at Third Way, June ,Fighting for Innovation: How DoD Can Advance CleanEnergy Technology... And Why It Has To, content.thirdway.org/publications/414/Third_Way_Idea_Brief_-_Fighting_for_Innovation.pdf)
The military’s reliance on oil from unstable and often unfriendly parts of the world creates a significant security threat. Like most consumers, the Pentagon purchases petroleum on the global market. Some of the largest suppliers in this market are Middle Eastern and North African nations, many of which are prone to internal political instability and/or tenuous relationships with the American government. The ten countries with the largest oil reserves, for example, include the likes of Libya, Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela, and Iraq. This leaves the U.S. vulnerable to petroleum price fluctuations influenced by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which currently is chaired by Iran.6 Supply concerns are particularly acute in forward-deployed military locations, like Afghanistan and Iraq, which rely on the safe transportation of fuel through volatile regions to power vehicles and generators. Military operations account for 75% of all DoD energy consumption, requiring immense amounts of fuel to be brought to theater.7 U.S. and allied fuel convoys have been targeted by militants in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, resulting in military and civilian casualties, as well as disruptions in energy supply to critical operations. In April of 2011, the Taliban warned of a “spring offensive” that would include attacks on “logistical convoys of the foreign invaders” within Afghanistan.8 And in May, militants damaged or destroyed over a dozen fuel tankers taking 15 lives in the process.9 It is estimated that over 3,000 American troops and contractors have been killed while protecting supply convoys in Iraq and Afghanistan.10 As Navy Secretary Ray Mabus has said, “Fossil fuel is the No. 1 thing we import to Afghanistan, and guarding that fuel is keeping the troops from doing what they were sent there to do, to fight or engage local people.”11 Reliance on oil can also make the military less responsive and flexible in its operations. For instance, the Defense Science Board notes that if the Abrams tanks used in operation Desert Shield had been 50% more fuel efficient, there would have been a greatly reduced need for fuel and related infrastructure which, in turn, would have cut the military’s build-up time by 20%.12 Between 2000 and 2008, DoD’s oil expenditures increased by almost 500%, peaking at nearly $18 billion.13 And estimates show that every $10 increase in the cost of a barrel of oil adds another $1.3 billion to the Pentagon’s fuel budget, swelling the national deficit and diverting resources from critical defense priorities.14 The rise in spending on fuel by DoD is not solely due to skyrocketing oil prices. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, combined with ever-more energy hungry weapons systems, vehicles and communications devices have increased demand to historic levels. Transporting fuel to military operations sites, often via heavily-protected convoys, also contributes significantly to the cost. Unless DoD makes significant strides to reduce its demand and promote innovative methods of generating and distributing energy, it is on course to spend over $150 billion over the next decade on fuel and electricity. That’s up from the roughly $107 billion the Pentagon spent on energy between 2000 and 2009, at the height of two overseas conflicts.15
U.S. hegemony de-escalates all conflicts—alternatives to hegemony cause nuke warBrooks, Ikenberry and Wohlforth ‘13 Stephen Brooks, Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, John Ikenberry, Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University in Seoul, John Wohlforth, Daniel Webster Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, Jan/Feb 2013, Foreign Affairs, Lean Forward, EBSCO
Of course, even if it is true that the costs of deep engagement fall far below what advocates of retrenchment claim, they would not be worth bearing unless they yielded greater benefits. In fact, they do. The most obvious benefit of the current strategy is that it reduces the risk of a dangerous conflict. The United States' security commitments deter states with aspirations to regional hegemony from contemplating expansion and dissuade U.S. partners from trying to solve security problems on their own in ways that would end up threatening other states. Skeptics discount this benefit by arguing that U.S. security guarantees aren't necessary to prevent dangerous rivalries from erupting. They maintain that the high costs of territorial conquest and the many tools countries can use to signal their benign intentions are enough to prevent conflict. In other words, major powers could peacefully manage regional multipolarity without the American pacifier. But that outlook is too sanguine. If Washington got out of East Asia, Japan and South Korea would likely expand their military capabilities and go nuclear, which could provoke a destabilizing reaction from China. It's worth noting that during the Cold War, both South Korea and Taiwan tried to obtain nuclear weapons; the only thing that stopped them was the United States, which used its security commitments to restrain their nuclear temptations. Similarly, were the United States to leave the Middle East, the countries currently backed by Washington--notably, Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia--might act in ways that would intensify the region's security dilemmas. There would even be reason to worry about Europe. Although it's hard to imagine the return of great-power military competition in a post-American Europe, it's not difficult to foresee governments there refusing to pay the budgetary costs of higher military outlays and the political costs of increasing EU defense cooperation. The result might be a continent incapable of securing itself from threats on its periphery, unable to join foreign interventions on which U.S. leaders might want European help, and vulnerable to the influence of outside rising powers. Given how easily a U.S. withdrawal from key regions could lead to dangerous competition, advocates of retrenchment tend to put forth another argument: that such rivalries wouldn't actually hurt the United States. To be sure, few doubt that the United States could survive the return of conflict among powers in Asia or the Middle East--but at what cost? Were states in one or both of these regions to start competing against one another, they would likely boost their military budgets, arm client states, and perhaps even start regional proxy wars, all of which should concern the United States, in part because its lead in military capabilities would narrow. Greater regional insecurity could also produce cascades of nuclear proliferation as powers such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan built nuclear forces of their own. Those countries' regional competitors might then also seek nuclear arsenals. Although nuclear deterrence can promote stability between two states with the kinds of nuclear forces that the Soviet Union and the United States possessed, things get shakier when there are multiple nuclear rivals with less robust arsenals. As the number of nuclear powers increases, the probability of illicit transfers, irrational decisions, accidents, and unforeseen crises goes up. The case for abandoning the United States' global role misses the underlying security logic of the current approach. By reassuring allies and actively managing regional relations, Washington dampens competition in the world s key areas, thereby preventing the emergence of a hothouse in which countries would grow new military capabilities. For proof that this strategy is working, one need look no further than the defense budgets of the current great powers: on average, since 1991 they have kept their military expenditures as A percentage of GDP to historic lows, and they have not attempted to match the United States' top-end military capabilities. Moreover, all of the world's most modern militaries are U.S. allies, and the United States' military lead over its potential rivals .is by many measures growing. On top of all this, the current grand strategy acts as a hedge against the emergence regional hegemons. Some supporters of retrenchment argue that the U.S. military should keep its forces over the horizon and pass the buck to local powers to do the dangerous work of counterbalancing rising regional powers. Washington, they contend, should deploy forces abroad only when a truly credible contender for regional hegemony arises, as in the cases of Germany and Japan during World War II and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Yet there is already a potential contender for regional hegemony--China--and to balance it, the United States will need to maintain its key alliances in Asia and the military capacity to intervene there. The implication is that the United States should get out of Afghanistan and Iraq, reduce its military presence in Europe, and pivot to Asia. Yet that is exactly what the Obama administration is doing. MILITARY DOMINANCE, ECONOMIC PREEMINENCE Preoccupied with security issues, critics of the current grand strategy miss one of its most important benefits: sustaining an open global economy and a favorable place for the United States within it. To be sure, the sheer size of its output would guarantee the United States a major role in the global economy whatever grand strategy it adopted. Yet the country's military dominance undergirds its economic leadership. In addition to protecting the world economy from instability, its military commitments and naval superiority help secure the sea-lanes and other shipping corridors that allow trade to flow freely and cheaply. Were the United States to pull back from the world, the task of securing the global commons would get much harder. Washington would have less leverage with which it could convince countries to cooperate on economic matters and less access to the military bases throughout the world needed to keep the seas open. A global role also lets the United States structure the world economy in ways that serve its particular economic interests. During the Cold War, Washington used its overseas security commitments to get allies to embrace the economic policies it preferred--convincing West Germany in the 1960s, for example, to take costly steps to support the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. U.S. defense agreements work the same way today. For example, when negotiating the 2011 free-trade agreement with South Korea, U.S. officials took advantage of Seoul's desire to use the agreement as a means of tightening its security relations with Washington. As one diplomat explained to us privately, "We asked for changes in labor and environment clauses, in auto clauses, and the Koreans took it all." Why? Because they feared a failed agreement would be "a setback to the political and security relationship." More broadly, the United States wields its security leverage to shape the overall structure of the global economy. Much of what the United States wants from the economic order is more of the same: for instance, it likes the current structure of the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund and prefers that free trade continue. Washington wins when U.S. allies favor this status quo, and one reason they are inclined to support the existing system is because they value their military alliances. Japan, to name one example, has shown interest in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Obama administration's most important free-trade initiative in the region, less because its economic interests compel it to do so than because Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda believes that his support will strengthen Japan's security ties with the United States. The United States' geopolitical dominance also helps keep the U.S. dollar in place as the world's reserve currency, which confers enormous benefits on the country, such as a greater ability to borrow money. This is perhaps clearest with Europe: the EU'S dependence on the United States for its security precludes the EU from having the kind of political leverage to support the euro that the United States has with the dollar. As with other aspects of the global economy, the United States does not provide its leadership for free: it extracts disproportionate gains. Shirking that responsibility would place those benefits at risk. CREATING COOPERATION What goes for the global economy goes for other forms of international cooperation. Here, too, American leadership benefits many countries but disproportionately helps the United States. In order to counter transnational threats, such as terrorism, piracy, organized crime, climate change, and pandemics, states have to work together and take collective action. But cooperation does not come about effortlessly, especially when national interests diverge. The United States' military efforts to promote stability and its broader leadership make it easier for Washington to launch joint initiatives and shape them in ways that reflect U.S. interests. After all, cooperation is hard to come by in regions where chaos reigns, and it flourishes where leaders can anticipate lasting stability. U.S. alliances are about security first, but they also provide the political framework and channels of communication for cooperation on nonmilitary issues. NATO, for example, has spawned new institutions, such as the Atlantic Council, a think tank, that make it easier for Americans and Europeans to talk to one another and do business. Likewise, consultations with allies in East Asia spill over into other policy issues; for example, when American diplomats travel to Seoul to manage the military alliance, they also end up discussing the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Thanks to conduits such as this, the United States can use bargaining chips in one issue area to make progress in others. The benefits of these communication channels are especially pronounced when it comes to fighting the kinds of threats that require new forms of cooperation, such as terrorism and pandemics. With its alliance system in place, the United States is in a stronger position than it would otherwise be to advance cooperation and share burdens. For example, the intelligence-sharing network within NATO, which was originally designed to gather information on the Soviet Union, has been adapted to deal with terrorism. Similarly, after a tsunami in the Indian Ocean devastated surrounding countries in 2004, Washington had a much easier time orchestrating a fast humanitarian response with Australia, India, and Japan, since their militaries were already comfortable working with one another. The operation did wonders for the United States' image in the region. The United States' global role also has the more direct effect of facilitating the bargains among governments that get cooperation going in the first place. As the scholar Joseph Nye has written, "The American military role in deterring threats to allies, or of assuring access to a crucial resource such as oil in the Persian Gulf, means that the provision of protective force can be used in bargaining situations. Sometimes the linkage may be direct; more often it is a factor not mentioned openly but present in the back of statesmen's minds." THE DEVIL WE KNOW Should America come home? For many prominent scholars of international relations, the answer is yes--a view that seems even wiser in the wake of the disaster in Iraq and the Great Recession. Yet their arguments simply don't hold up. There is little evidence that the United States would save much money switching to a smaller global posture. Nor is the current strategy self-defeating: it has not provoked the formation of counterbalancing coalitions or caused the country to spend itself into economic decline. Nor will it condemn the United States to foolhardy wars in the future. What the strategy does do is help prevent the outbreak of conflict in the world's most important regions, keep the global economy humming, and make international cooperation easier. Charting a different course would threaten all these benefits. This is not to say that the United States' current foreign policy can't be adapted to new circumstances and challenges. Washington does not need to retain every commitment at all costs, and there is nothing wrong with rejiggering its strategy in response to new opportunities or setbacks. That is what the Nixon administration did by winding down the Vietnam War and increasing the United States' reliance on regional partners to contain Soviet power, and it is what the Obama administration has been doing after the Iraq war by pivoting to Asia. These episodes of rebalancing belie the argument that a powerful and internationally engaged America cannot tailor its policies to a changing world. A grand strategy of actively managing global security and promoting the liberal economic order has served the United States exceptionally well for the past six decades, and there is no reason to give it up now. The country's globe-spanning posture is the devil we know, and a world with a disengaged America is the devil we don't know. Were American leaders to choose retrenchment, they would in essence be running a massive experiment to test how the world would work without an engaged and liberal leading power. The results could well be disastrous.
Hegemony empirically deescalates conflict and is comparatively better than multipolarity – must keep U.S heg to maintain orderBarnett 11 (Thomas P.M, Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis and Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http:~/~/www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time of arguably the greatest structural change in the global order yet endured, with this historical moment's most amazing feature being its relative and absolute lack of mass violence. That is something to consider when Americans contemplate military intervention in Libya, because if we do take the step to prevent larger-scale killing by engaging in some killing of our own, we will not be adding to some fantastically imagined global death count stemming from the ongoing "megalomania" and "evil" of American "empire." We'll be engaging in the same sort of system-administering activity that has marked our stunningly successful stewardship of global order since World War II. Let me be more blunt: As the guardian of globalization, the U.S. military has been the greatest force for peace the world has ever known. Had America been removed from the global dynamics that governed the 20th century, the mass murder never would have ended. Indeed, it's entirely conceivable there would now be no identifiable human civilization left, once nuclear weapons entered the killing equation. But the world did not keep sliding down thaft path of perpetual war. Instead, America stepped up and changed everything by ushering in our now-perpetual great-power peace. We introduced the international liberal trade order known as globalization and played loyal Leviathan over its spread. What resulted was the collapse of empires, an explosion of democracy, the persistent spread of human rights, the liberation of women, the doubling of life expectancy, a roughly 10-fold increase in adjusted global GDP and a profound and persistent reduction in battle deaths from state-based conflicts. That is what American "hubris" actually delivered. Please remember that the next time some TV pundit sells you the image of "unbridled" American military power as the cause of global disorder instead of its cure. With self-deprecation bordering on self-loathing, we now imagine a post-American world that is anything but. Just watch who scatters and who steps up as the Facebook revolutionshttp://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8089/the-realist-prism-politics-vs-social-media-in-the-arab-uprising erupt across the Arab world. While we might imagine ourselves the status quo power, we remain the world's most vigorously revisionist force. As for the sheer "evil" that is our military-industrial complex, again, let's examine what the world looked like before that establishment reared its ugly head. The last great period of global structural change was the first half of the 20th century, a period that saw a death toll of about 100 million across two world wars. That comes to an average of 2 million deaths a year in a world of approximately 2 billion souls. Today, with far more comprehensive worldwide reporting, researchers report an average of less than 100,000 battle deaths annually in a world fast approaching 7 billion people. Though admittedly crude, these calculations suggest a 90 percent absolute drop and a 99 percent relative drop in deaths due to war. We are clearly headed for a world order characterized by multipolarity, something the American-birthed system was designed to both encourage and accommodate. But given how things turned out the last time we collectively faced such a fluid structure, we would do well to keep U.S. power, in all of its forms, deeply embedded in the geometry to come. To continue the historical survey, after salvaging Western Europe from its half-century of civil war, the U.S. emerged as the progenitor of a new, far more just form of globalization -- one based on actual free trade rather than colonialism. America then successfully replicated globalization further in East Asia over the second half of the 20th century, setting the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.
The Air Force is facing an energy crisis - threatens future power projection capabilities Donley and Schwartz 12 | Secretary of the Air Force AND USAF General (Michael and Norton, "Energy Horizons: United States Air Force Energy SandT Vision 2011-2026," http:~/~/ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stam p.jsp?tp=andarnumber=5611085url:http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stam%20p.jsp?tp=andarnumber=5611085 The Air Force faces daunting energy challenges which promise only to increase in severity given increased global demand for energy, diminishing global energy supplies, and demands for enhanced environmental stewardship. The Air Force requires access to energy and technologies to efficiently utilize this energy that provide distinct advantages over our adversaries—an ‗assured energy advantage‘—across the air, space, cyberspace, and infrastructure domains. These needs are driven by our national security strategy to reduce reliance on foreign petroleum, federal mandates for efficiency and emission reductions, and the need to simultaneously meet mission requirements. The Air Force spends over $8 billion in aviation fuel each year, which is exacerbated by unpredictable prices and contingencies. Energy independence, however, is not only about saving money, but also about saving lives of energy distributers. Our adversaries increasingly target energy as a center of gravity. In 2004, Osama bin Laden ordered his operatives to "focus your operations on oil ... since this will cause the (Americans) to die off." To date over 3000 American soldiers and contractors have been killed or wounded protecting supply convoys in Iraq and Afghanistan (approximately one life per 30 convoys), 80% of which are primarily fuel and water. An assured energy advantage promises our forces will be more suitable (adaptable to a range of environments), sustainable (fiscally, environmentally, and renewably), and secure now and in the future.
Airpower uniquely key to building multilateral institutions in the Asia-Pacific region - Miscalc and war Air power stands as a cornerstone of the Obama administration’s recent decision to prioritize defense efforts in the Asia-Pacific region. To make this strategy successful, the administration and Congress must ensure the nation has the necessary capabilities and capacity to secure national interests in an area defined by vast distances, limited basing options, and a pronounced threat to assured access. This means real investments—not budgeting sleights of hand that dilute America’s presence in other vital areas around the globe—and the ability to maintain strength across the national security portfolio. Though the United States currently dominates the skies, this will not continue if resources are spread too thin and are inadequate to meet potential threats. Despite the considerable costs, policymakers must invest in the necessary assets and capabilities to be prepared to effectively defend US interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Key points in this Outlook: The Obama administration has declared the Asia-Pacific region to be a new priority for US defense efforts, and air power is a key part of this strategy. The United States now has fewer than one-third the number of bombers that it had during the Vietnam era, and existing B-2 long-range strike aircraft are nearly two decades old. Policymakers must stop hiding behind rhetoric and quickly make the necessary air power investments to equip the nation to face potential threats in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly from China’s rapidly advancing aerial capabilities. The administration’s decision to prioritize the Asia-Pacific region represents an important step forward in realigning military forces with America’s global interests. It follows the wisdom of the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel, led by William J. Perry, Bill Clinton’s secretary of defense, and Stephen Hadley, George W. Bush’s national security adviser, which found: The force structure in the Asia-Pacific area needs to be increased. In order to preserve U.S. interests, the United States will need to retain the ability to transit freely the areas of the Western Pacific for security and economic reasons. The United States must be fully present in the Asia-Pacific region to protect American lives and territory, ensure the free flow of commerce, maintain stability, and defend our allies in the region.1 However, the credible projection of effective and sustainable power requires more than rhetoric. It also requires investments in capabilities and capacity to protect America’s interests in the region. Air power uniquely affords leaders the ability to wage mobile and adaptive campaigns that maximize economy of force relative to wars based on attrition and occupation. However, policymakers must not assume continued de facto US preeminence in the skies. Combat operations in the Asia-Pacific would require an ample inventory of aircraft with adequate range, speed, and stealth. This does not mean limited “silver bullet” fleets that try to perform nearly every mission with only a few select aircraft. After two decades of deferred programs and curtailed buys in key platforms, America’s combat air assets are worn out and spread too thin. The Obama administration and Congress must prioritize recapitalizing these capabilities with robust investment in the next-generation bomber; the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Program; the KC-46 aerial refueling tanker; F-22 modernization; long-range, low-observable, carrier-based strike platforms; and joint electronic warfare capabilities. Diversified logistics lines, air base resiliency, carrier battle group defenses, vigorous cyber capabilities, strong command and control networks, and robust data links will also be critical enablers for the entire joint force. Although these capabilities require considerable investments, the price of unpreparedness is even greater. Should the United States find itself underequipped in a future conflict, it simply will not be possible to rapidly design, develop, and field modern weapons systems and their requisite support elements. The assets and associated infrastructure we acquire today will govern the options available to the nation’s decision makers for decades into the future. Preparing Comprehensively for the Future Whether in the Asia-Pacific domain or elsewhere, putting US military personnel in harm’s way when alternate means exist for securing national priorities does not typically serve America’s interests. This requires focusing policy and resource priorities on using peaceful avenues to favorably influence other nations. Taking positive and proactive action to shape events on the ground means US leaders must continue to build and maintain alliances with nations that share common interests and will partner to realize mutual regional policy goals. Air power presents many opportunities for cultivating these associations. Whether conducting training exercises, promoting regional stability through joint operations, or supporting disaster recovery and humanitarian relief efforts, American and allied airmen are uniquely situated to project smart, effective, and positive power. This requires putting work into building enduring relationships over time, not scrambling in a crisis to create them overnight. Considering that air power can be deployed and sustained through minimal forward troop presence, such cooperative engagement has the advantage of focusing on desired regional effects without many of the liabilities associated with occupation by land forces. Also, given the scale and scope of the Asia-Pacific region, air power’s range and speed enables a discrete number of assets to engage across the theater on a sustained basis. However, these alliances will be successful only if they are built on robust policies underwritten by well-equipped forces. Allies’ commitment to the United States and its interests depends directly on their perceptions regarding American presence, staying power, and resolve. When cooperation is not possible, US leaders must have the capability and capacity to discourage and ultimately deter potential adversaries from threatening American interests. Whether alone or in concert with allied partners, American air power affords many policy options through its daily missions: Airlift and aerial refueling ensure regional and global mobility. Intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets provide critical data to inform the decision-making process. Air superiority ensures access throughout the global commons for all US forces. The ability to strike anywhere around the globe at will holds targets at risk. Nuclear forces provide an umbrella of protection for allied states and US forces. However, efforts to change the calculus or behavior of potential adversaries are effective only if they are credible. Securing interests through peaceful influence demands robust capability and capacity, including adequate quantity of forces. Failing to make such investments encourages regional instability that may lead to miscalculation and ultimately conflict.
Continued Power projection is key to maintain the stable transition to a regional system and checking China from aggressively expanding into the south china sea It is not only location and energy reserves that promise to give the South China Sea critical geostrategic importance, but also the coldblooded territorial disputes that have long surrounded these waters. Several disputes concern the Spratly Islands, a mini-archipelago in the South China Sea's southeastern part. Vietnam, Taiwan, and China each claim all or most of the South China Sea, as well as all of the Spratly and Paracel island groups. In particular, Beijing asserts a historical line: It lays claim to the heart of the South China Sea in a grand loop (widely known as the "cow's tongue") from China's Hainan Island at the South China Sea's northern end all the way south 1,200 miles to near Singapore and Malaysia. The result is that all nine states that touch the South China Sea are more or less arrayed against China and therefore dependent on the United States for diplomatic and military support. These conflicting claims are likely to become even more acute as Asia's spiraling energy demands -- energy consumption is expected to double by 2030url:http://www.eia.gov/cabs/South_China_Sea/Full.html, with China accounting for half that growth -- make the South China Sea the ever more central guarantor of the region's economic strength. Already, the South China Sea has increasingly become an armed camp, as the claimants build up and modernize their navies, even as the scramble for islands and reefs in recent decades is mostly over. China has so far confiscated 12 geographical features, Taiwan one, Vietnam 25, the Philippines eight, and Malaysia five. China's very geography orients it in the direction of the South China Sea. China looks south toward a basin of water formed, in clockwise direction, by Taiwan, the Philippines, the island of Borneo split between Malaysia and Indonesia (as well as tiny Brunei), the Malay Peninsula divided between Malaysia and Thailand, and the long snaking coastline of Vietnam: weak states all, compared with China. Like the Caribbean Sea, punctuated as it is by small island states and enveloped by a continental-sized United States, the South China Sea is an obvious arena for the projection of Chinese power. Indeed, China's position here is in many ways akin to America's position vis-à-vis the similar-sized Caribbean in the 19th and early 20th centuries. The United States recognized the presence and claims of European powers in the Caribbean, but sought to dominate the region nevertheless. It was the 1898 Spanish-American War and the digging of the Panama Canal from 1904 to 1914 that signified the United States' arrival as a world power. Domination of the greater Caribbean Basin, moreover, gave the United States effective control of the Western Hemisphere, which allowed it to affect the balance of power in the Eastern Hemisphere. And today China finds itself in a similar situation in the South China Sea, an antechamber of the Indian Ocean, where China also desires a naval presence to protect its Middle Eastern energy supplies. Yet something deeper and more emotional than geography propels China forward into the South China Sea and out into the Pacific: that is, China's own partial breakup by the Western powers in the relatively recent past, after having been for millennia a great power and world civilization. In the 19th century, as the Qing dynasty became the sick man of East Asia, China lost much of its territory to Britain, France, Japan, and Russia. In the 20th century came the bloody Japanese takeovers of the Shandong Peninsula and Manchuria. This all came atop the humiliations forced on China by the extraterritoriality agreements of the 19th and early 20th centuries, whereby Western countries wrested control of parts of Chinese cities -- the so-called "treaty ports." By 1938, as Yale University historian Jonathan D. Spence tells us in The Search for Modern com/gp/product/0393307808/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8andtag=fopo-20andlinkCode=as2andcamp=217145andcreative=399369andcreativeASIN=0393307808, because of these depredations as well as the Chinese Civil War, there was even a latent fear that "China was about to be com/books?id=vI1RRslLNSwCandlpg=PP1anddq=The%20Search%20for%20Modern%20Chinaandpg=PA300#v=snippetandq=%22about%20to%20be%20dismembered%22andf=false, that it would cease to exist as a nation, and that the four thousand years of its recorded history would come to a jolting end." China's urge for expansion is a declaration that it never again intends to let foreigners take advantage of it. JUST AS GERMAN SOIL constituted the military front line of the Cold War, the waters of the South China Sea may constitute the military front line of the coming decades. As China's navy becomes stronger and as China's claim on the South China Sea contradicts those of other littoral states, these other states will be forced to further develop their naval capacities. They will also balance against China by relying increasingly on the U.S. Navy, whose strength has probably peaked in relative terms, even as it must divert considerable resources to the Middle East. Worldwide multipolarity is already a feature of diplomacy and economics, but the South China Sea could show us what multipolarity in a military sense actually looks like. There is nothing romantic about this new front, void as it is of moral struggles. In naval conflicts, unless there is shelling onshore, there are no victims per se; nor is there a philosophical enemy to confront. Nothing on the scale of ethnic cleansing is likely to occur in this new central theater of conflict. China, its suffering dissidents notwithstanding, simply does not measure up as an object of moral fury. The Chinese regime demonstrates only a low-calorie version of authoritarianism, with a capitalist economy and little governing ideology to speak of. Moreover, China is likely to become more open rather than closed as a society in future years. Instead of fascism or militarism, China, along with other states in East Asia, is increasingly defined by the persistence of old-fashioned nationalism: an idea, certainly, but not one that since the mid-19th century has been attractive to intellectuals. And even if China does become more democratic, its nationalism is likely only to increase, as even a casual survey of the views of its relatively freewheeling netizens makes clear. We often think of nationalism as a reactionary sentiment, a relic of the 19th century. Yet it is traditional nationalism that mainly drives politics in Asia, and will continue to do so. That nationalism is leading unapologetically to the growth of militaries in the region -- navies and air forces especially -- to defend sovereignty and make claims for disputed natural resources. There is no philosophical allure here. It is all about the cold logic of the balance of power. To the degree that unsentimental realism, which is allied with nationalism, has a geographical home, it is the South China Sea. Whatever moral drama does occur in East Asia will thus take the form of austere power politics of the sort that leaves many intellectuals and journalists numb. As Thucydides put com/books?id=pjt3ZGU61wICandlpg=PA352anddq=%22The%20strong%20do%20what%20they%20can%22andpg=PA352#v=onepageandq=%22The%20strong%20do%20what%20they%20can%22andf=false so memorably in his telling of the ancient Athenians' subjugation of the island of Melos, "The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." In the 21st-century retelling, with China in Athens's role as the preeminent regional sea power, the weak will still submit -- but that's it. This will be China's undeclared strategy, and the smaller countries of Southeast Asia may well bandwagon with the United States to avoid the Melians' fate. But slaughter there will be not. The South China Sea presages a different form of conflict than the ones to which we have become accustomed. Since the beginning of the 20th century, we have been traumatized by massive, conventional land engagements on the one hand, and dirty, irregular small wars on the other. Because both kinds of war produced massive civilian casualties, war has been a subject for humanists as well as generals. But in the future we just might see a purer form of conflict, limited to the naval realm. This is a positive scenario. Conflict cannot be eliminated from the human condition altogether. A theme in Machiavelli's Discourses on com/gp/product/0199555559/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8andtag=fopo-20andlinkCode=as2andcamp=217145andcreative=399369andcreativeASIN=0199555559 is that conflict, properly controlled, is more likely than rigid stability to lead to human progress. A sea crowded with warships does not contradict an era of great promise for Asia. Insecurity often breeds dynamism. But can conflict in the South China Sea be properly controlled? My argument thus far presupposes that major warfare will not break out in the area and that instead countries will be content to jockey for position with their warships on the high seas, while making competing claims for natural resources and perhaps even agreeing to a fair distribution of them. But what if China were, against all evidential trends, to invade Taiwan? What if China and Vietnam, whose intense rivalry reaches far back into history, go to war as they did in 1979, with more lethal weaponry this time? For it isn't just China that is dramatically building its military; Southeast Asian countries are as well. Their defense budgets have increased by about a third in the past decade, even as European defense budgets have declined. Arms imports to Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia have gone up 84 percent, 146 percent, and 722 percent, respectively, since 2000. The spending is on naval and air platforms: surface warships, submarines with advanced missile systems, and long-range fighter jets. Vietnam recently spent $2 billion on six state-of-the-art Kilo-class Russian submarines and $1 billion on Russian fighter jets. Malaysia just opened a submarine base on com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2019534,00.html. While the United States has been distracted by land wars in the greater Middle East, military power has been quietly shifting from Europe to Asia. The United States presently guarantees the uneasy status quo in the South China Sea, limiting China's aggression mainly to its maps and serving as a check on China's diplomats and navy (though this is not to say that America is pure in its actions and China automatically the villain). What the United States provides to the countries of the South China Sea region is less the fact of its democratic virtue than the fact of its raw muscle. It is the very balance of power between the United States and China that ultimately keeps Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia free, able to play one great power off against the other. And within that space of freedom, regionalism can emerge as a power in its own right, in the form of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Yet, such freedom cannot be taken for granted. For the tense, ongoing standoff between the United States and China -- which extends to a complex array of topics from trade to currency reform to cybersecurity to intelligence surveillance -- threatens eventually to shift in China's favor in East Asia, largely due to China's geographical centrality to the region.
Nationalist island wars will draw in everyone.Sorman 12 - City Journal contributing editor Guy Sorman, “Where Nationalism Still Matters,” City Journal, 20 August 2012, pg. http://tinyurl.com/8kas2u3
Too often, we see East Asia only from an economic perspective, marveling at the undeniable success of China, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, and South Korea. Yet these nations have another story to tell, one that owes less to current economic performance than to much older instincts: nationalism and ethnic resentment, the forces that kindled World War I in Sarajevo. Today, those forces underlie disputes in places that we ignore or know nothing about, such as the Senkaku Islands, the Dokdo Islands, and the Spratly archipelago. And those disputes may spark military conflicts between rival Asian countries. Such thinking goes against the theory that trade must soothe centuries-old enmities, that commerce annihilates even the temptation of war. Isn’t this the lesson of Jean Monnet’s brilliant vision, the European Union? Wars disappeared in Europe when replaced by trade. And Asian countries certainly cooperate with one another commercially; the products that we buy after they’re exported from one Asian country or another are actually composed of pieces that travel from factory to factory in China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and the Philippines. South Korea’s conservative government, however, has refused any military cooperation with Japan because the Japanese refuse to recognize South Korean sovereignty on two uninhabitable islets halfway between the two countries (known as Dokdo in Korean and Takeshima in Japanese). Each government refers to old treaties and ancient maps to assert its rights, both refuse to enter arbitration, and the matter remains unsettled. Even North Korea supports South Korea in this case—the only area of agreement between the two rivals. In South Korea, Dokdo has become a symbol of resistance to Japanese imperialism. If one points out that such imperialism disappeared in 1945, South Korean politicians and pundits counter that the Japanese soul is imperialist and that Japan’s current government wants to build a nuclear arsenal. In truth, only a few extreme nationalists in Japan harbor that nuclear desire. But now, apparently in response, conservative contenders for the South Korean presidency want to pursue nuclear power as well. The status of Senkaku (or Diaoyuin, in Chinese), located south of the Japanese archipelago, is likewise unclear. Though these islands are administered by Japan and owned, under Japanese law, by a group of Japanese families, China considers them part of its own empire, and Taiwan also claims them. Chinese vessels constantly patrol near Senkaku, harassing and sometimes sinking Japanese fishing boats. In the Western media, American and European political leaders have focused on the islets’ economic resources, which include fishing zones and possibly gas and oil wells. But if China, Taiwan, and Japan were concerned only with economics, they could find other seas to fish and other wells to drill. The dispute is actually symbolic, motivated by old nationalist feelings and the traditional Asian concern with making one’s adversary lose face. After Chinese vessels rammed Japanese trawlers in 2010, the Japanese government failed to react strongly. This year, the Japanese government is looking for revenge by pushing for the nationalization of Senkaku. Further south, in the Spratly archipelago—claimed by China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Malaysia—the potential for conflict is even greater. Here, too, rumors about gas mines confer on Spratly an economic value that would establish rational grounds for conflict. But these energy resources have not yet been confirmed, so the likelier reason for tension is nationalism. In Spratly as in Senkaku, Chinese imperialism tests the resistance of its neighbors, some of which—Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, and to some extent even India—are considering an alliance against China. Washington has provoked Chinese anger by supporting the idea. An American shadow hangs over the region already, since the Seventh Fleet ensures the html of the shipping routes. Without it, the Asian economic web would have disintegrated long ago. The Pacific pressure cooker undermines another piece of conventional wisdom: that military conflict cannot arise between democratic countries. Democratic South Korea and democratic Japan have failed to negotiate minor business and trade issues. Worse, South Korea’s position in this dispute puts it closer to dictatorial North Korea and China than to democratic Japan. On the whole, the burden of history and the internal tensions of a common civilization prove stronger than contemporary political and economic considerations. The potential alliance against China in the Spratly dispute would bring democracies together with the Communist dictatorship of Vietnam—supposedly every bit as Communist as China’s. Each day seems to bring new provocations. The Korean president has set foot on Dokdo, soon followed by a group of Japanese nationalists. China has sent a naval detachment to the Spratlys. Japanese police have arrested a group of Chinese on Senkaku. Of course, current circumstances play a role in exacerbating these conflicts. Asia’s economy is slowing down; its governments are variously weak (Japan), undergoing transition (South Korea, China) or in search of legitimacy (Vietnam, China). But that should be small comfort, because aggressive nationalism can be an outlet for nations facing such uncertainties. In Asia, neither economics nor democracy dissolves nationalist zeal. Island disputes will go nuclearHellman 12 – Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering @ Stanford University Martin edu/~~hellman/ (His current project, Defusing the Nuclear org/, has been endorsed by a former Director of the National Security Agency, Stanford's President Emeritus, and two Nobel Laureates), “Another Early Warning Sign,” Defusing Nuclear Threats, Posted on September 28, 2012url:http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2012/09/28/another-early-warning-sign/, pg. http://tinyurl.com/9r9vdhr
The “World Anti-Fascist War” is what we call World War II – a war in which Japanese aggression killed almost 20 million Chinese, most of them civilians. The infamous “Rape of org/wiki/Rape_of_Nanking” is the best known of numerous atrocities and war crimes that Japan inflicted on China. This is not to say that the Senkaku/Diaoyu should be returned to China, only that we need to be aware of how high emotions run on both sides, and that China has some legitimate grievances from the past. And, of course, Japan was not uniquely blood thirsty. Millions of Chinese died at Chinese hands during the Chinese Civil War; the mistakes of Mao’s Great Leap Forward led to millions of deaths; and the Cultural Revolution killed somewhere between half a million and three million more Chinese, some by public beatings that could be likened to atrocities during the Rape of Nanking. Given the level of irrationality that this possible on both sides, and the reasonable arguments that each side can advance for its claims to these islands, it is not in our national security interests to issue security guarantees to Japan over these islands. There is too much risk that our “insurance policy” will have to pay off, potentially with a nuclear war and millions of American deaths. Such an outcome is unlikely, but if we keep risking small chances of being destroyed, eventually one will realize that potential.
AWE solves those concerns Cahoon 11 Troy L. Masters, Aeronautical Engineering at U.S. Air Force Institute of Technology, Captail USAF, Edwards Research Site Operations Officer Air Force Research Laboratory. “airborne wind energy: implementation and design for the u.s. air force” march 2011 department of the air force air university air force institute of technology AWE could be very beneficial for supporting military energy needs. AWE can be used in remote areas, wartime areas, on bases, and in certain areas of civilian populations (where air traffic does not travel). From a civil engineering perspective, AWE can be one 104 of the tools that will be in place first as the military sets up new installations, especially in areas without electricity or other energy sources. AWE can have great impact on the security, economics, and environment for the USAF, and for the country. Supporting security and national energy independence, AWE can provide a stable and consistent source of domestic energy that is renewable. This will allow the USAF to meet the goals of the National Security Strategy2 and the Air Force Energy Plan 2010.39 Economically, researchers estimate that the cost of fully developed AWE technology will produce energy that will be less expensive than any other current source of energy at around 2¢/kWh (see Figure 37).9, 10 AWE energy can tremendously benefit the USAF, since energy costs the USAF $9 billion per year (8% of the total USAF budget).39 If renewables are to be massively adopted by the USAF or the population, the key is that the cost of renewables (such as AWE) must be lower than fossil fuels. Renewables need to be cheaper than fossil fuels and become the go-to source of energy, leaving the fossil fuels as the backup when the availability of the preferred renewable source is not available.
Independently, AWE is key to restore military readiness Cahoon 11 Troy L. Masters, Aeronautical Engineering at U.S. Air Force Institute of Technology, Captail USAF, Edwards Research Site Operations Officer Air Force Research Laboratory. “airborne wind energy: implementation and design for the u.s. air force” march 2011 department of the air force air university air force institute of technology
As long as the U.S. is dependent on other countries for energy, the threat of one or multiple countries boycotting or withholding resources from the country exists; realistically, the fight for energy could create a disastrous situation for the U.S. Consequently, the government and DoD are well aware of how energy affects our economy. The 2010 National Security Strategy states: Meanwhile, the nation that leads the world in building a clean energy economy will enjoy a substantial economic and security advantage. That is why the Administration is investing heavily in research…promoting developments in energy, and expanding international cooperation. As long as we are dependent on fossil fuels, we need to ensure the security and free flow of global energy resources. But without significant and timely adjustments, our energy dependence will continue to undermine our security and prosperity. This will leave us vulnerable to energy supply disruptions and manipulation….2 Oil is the largest energy concern for the U.S., with about 60% of its oil being imported from other countries.3 Oil is such an intrinsic part of U.S. energy needs…could the U.S. imagine life without oil? Many products including gasoline, lubricants, plastic, and paints are each made from oil. The country would come to a screeching halt in a matter of weeks if oil supplies were cut off, since the U.S. economy is set up to be so dependent upon oil and its daily use. Decreasing dependence upon oil would simultaneously benefit the DoD by eliminating vulnerabilities in its supply line: ―The generation, storage, and distribution of energy on the battlefield have always been essential to sustaining military operations.‖4 A recent study indicated that 70% of convoys in Iraq were for transporting fuel; these fuel supply lines continue to be potential, visible targets for enemy combatants. A goal of military logisticians could be to reduce that vulnerability by bringing actual sources of energy with them, not just generators that need continual refueling.4 Another aspect of U.S. energy that applies directly to the DoD is the need to use energy that pre-exists and is available in remote areas. On many levels, it would be most beneficial to the DoD (saving time, money, and resources) if they could bring with them some method to harness energy from resources that are available locally, at the remote location. High-altitude wind power is one possible resource, available at virtually all locations across the globe. This energy supply would be perfect for the military to use because they often find themselves deploying to locations with un-established or inadequate infrastructures for bringing in fuel and energy. The DoD recognizes the importance for the U.S. to lead the world in developing clean energy: ―The United States has a window of opportunity to lead in the development of clean energy technology. If successful, the United States will lead in this new Industrial Revolution in clean energy that will be a major contributor to our economic prosperity.‖2 The security of the U.S. is dependent upon the economy of the country. Therefore, it is important that the U.S. lead economically to support a secure nation and continue to endorse security for the world. The DoD requires the means to accomplish 4 the U.S. national security strategy, implementing anything the country needs to do, and developing clean energy is vital to doing this. Exploring renewable energy sources to the point that they can sustain the country and the world is the only way that 25% of DoD needs will be met by the year 2025.1 This must be done by finding innovative ways to make renewable energy sources, such as wind power and solar power, competitive economically with traditional energy sources such as coal, oil, and natural gas. If the U.S. has already made the transition to using renewables, sustaining the country will be possible because renewable energy is renewable—the U.S. will no longer have to worry about the depletion of fossil fuels, and can set other developmental and security goals.
Navy
The Cargo Shipping industry is facing a fuel crisis that will skyrocket prices, but AWE systems can solve
In April 2008, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) approved a reduction in sulfur emissions for the shipping industry. From the year 2020 shipping companies either have to use distilled fuels with a limited sulfur content of 0.5% instead of heavy fuel oil or have to use scrubbing technology3 to clean their exhaust gases.4 For shipping companies using distillate fuels means a doubling of fuel costs in the future, since refined products such as Marine Gas Oil (MGO) and Marine Diesel Oil (MDO)5 are considerably more expensive than highly sulfurous heavy fuel oil which is predominantly being used as ship fuel at present. Already today shipping companies must use “clean” fuel with a maximum sulfur content of 1.5% when operating their fleets in what are called SECAs (Sulfur Emission Control Areas) on the North Sea and Baltic Sea. This threshold will drop to 1% starting in 2012. This is nothing less than a MDO/MGO-obligation since it is not possible to reduce the sulfur content of heavy fuel oil to this level. The result will be higher fuel costs from having to convert from heavy fuel to diesel, and from price increases in combination with a greater demand for MGO and MDO. Starting in 2015 the maximum allowable sulfur content in marine fuels within these regions will be reduced once more to 0.1%, which will set off an-other rise in prices. Scrubbing as the end-of-pipe alternative leads to high investments in cleaning technology and an in-crease in fuel consumption of about 2% due to the higher resistance in the exhaust gas stream. It re-mains to be seen whether scrubbing will be allowed in the long term as it is counterproductive in view of international climate politics: when discharging sulfur oxides into the sea, large quantities of CO2 are being released. In addition to the regulations already passed and in response to global political pressure, the IMO is currently preparing a regulation on the reduction of CO2 emissions from shipping in the form of a CO2 indexing scheme (EEDI, Energy Efficiency Design Index6). The EU has already given the IMO a dead-line of 31 December 2011 to finalize the regulations.7 Experts assume that corresponding regulations will be implemented in a timely manner. Thus, shipping companies will also be burdened with emis-sions-based levies in the future. CO2 emissions can only be effectively reduced by burning less fuel. Limited Refining Capacity as Oil Price Driver Experts believe that fuel prices will go up once more by enacting the ban on heavy fuel oil. The reason is that refinery capacities are too limited to cover the demand. And when it comes to the demand for fuel it’s important to keep in mind that ships will be competing with cars, trucks, heating oil and all other onshore oil consumers in the future. Modern refineries are designed to produce less heavy fuel oil and more high-quality (and high-priced) refined products. As a result of this, trade associations believe that refineries are not able to cover the additional demand. And for the shipping industry, the situation is already making a turn for the worse over the short term: Since refineries are producing less heavy oil, the prices for heavy ship fuels are rising disproportionately even today. Triplication of Fuel Costs for Shipping Companies All in all these developments imply that fuel costs for shipping companies will triple in the future com-pared to today’s level. Thus ship operating costs will predominantly be determined by the cost of fuel in the future. The figure above shows how the internationally renowned classification society Germanischer Lloyd projects fuel prices will develop within the shipping industry (prices given exclude any increases due to inflation). Cost increases stemming from CO2 emission-based levies from the year 2013 on, as well as the mandatory use of more expensive diesel fuels (MGO) beginning in 2020, are clearly recognizable. Shipping industry customers – freight owners, such as major commodities companies, as well as logis-tics service providers – are working hard to reduce their CO2 emissions in response to rising pressures on the part of their own customers. For many companies, logistics are a major contributor to their overall corporate emissions levels. Providers of logistics services are already taking action by creating climate-protecting alternatives, such as DHL and Deutsche Bahn respectively with their GOGREEN and “EcoPlus” (DB Schenker Rail) shipping and transportation options. The shipping industry does not yet offer these kinds of products. The fact that maritime transport accounts for a major part of many companies’ transport volume makes it one area where freight owners are especially looking for oppor-tunities to reduce their carbon footprint. First initiatives have already been formed to address this is-sue, e.g. the Clean Cargo Working Group8.
Uniquely causes multiple scenarios for war and extinction Rosen, 10 (Deputy General Counsel at the Center for Naval Analyses and Professor of Homeland Security Law and Policy at George Washington University) 2010 “Energy Independence and Climate Change: The Economic and National Security Consequences of Failing to Act” University of Richmond Law Review, Lexis
There is a growing consensus in U.S. national security circles that American dependence on imported oil constitutes a threat to the United States because a substantial portion of those oil reserves are controlled by governments that have historically pursued policies inimical to U.S. interests. For example, Venezuela, which represents eleven percent of U.S. oil imports, “regularly espouses anti-American and anti-Western rhetoric both at home and abroad . . . and . . . promotes . . . an anti-U.S. influence in parts of Latin and South America . . .”72 that retards the growth of friendly political and economic ties among the United States, Venezuela, and a few other states in Latin and South America. This scenario plays out in many different regions. Russia, for example, has used its oil leverage to exert extreme political pressure upon Ukraine and Belarus.73 Longstanding Western commercial relations with repressive regimes in the Middle East—i.e., Iran, Sudan, and Saudi Arabia—raise similar issues because of the mixed strategic messages that are being sent. Of course, large wealth transfers have allowed the Taliban in Saudi Arabia to bankroll terrorism.74 A. Chokepoints and Flashpoints For the foreseeable future, the U.S. military will most likely be involved in protecting access to oil supplies—including the political independence of oil producers—and the global movements of using oil to help sustain the smooth functioning of the world economy. The security challenges associated with preserving access to oil are complicated by geographical “chokepoints,” through which oil flows or is transported, but which are vulnerable to piracy or closure.75 “Flashpoints” also exist as a result of political— and sometimes military—competition to secure commercial or sovereign access to oil in the face of disputed maritime and land claims that are associated with oil and gas deposits. Together, these challenges have necessitated that the United States and its allies maintain costly navies and air forces to protect sea lanes, ocean access, and maintain a presence to deter military competition in disputed regions. A selection of today’s chokepoints and flashpoints follow. The Strait of Hormuz. This strait is the narrow waterway that allows access from the Indian Ocean into the Persian Gulf. Two thirds of the world’s oil is transported by ocean, and a very large percentage of that trade moves through Hormuz. The northern tip of Oman forms the southern shoreline of the strait.76 Hormuz is protected by the constant transits of the U.S. Navy and its allies. Even though the strait has not been closed, the Persian Gulf has been the scene of extensive military conflict.77 On September 22, 1980, Iraq invaded Iran, initiating an eight-year war between the two countries that featured the “War of the Tankers,” in which 543 ships, including the USS Stark, were attacked, while the U.S. Navy provided escort services to protect tankers that were transiting the Persian Gulf.78 There have been past threats by Iran to militarily close the strait.79 Additionally, there are ongoing territorial disputes between the United Arab Emirates and Iran over ownership of three islands that are located in approaches to the strait.80 Closure of the strait would cause severe disruption in the movements of the world’s oil supplies and, at a minimum, cause significant price increases and perhaps supply shortages in many regions for the duration of the closure.81 During the War of the Tankers, oil prices increased from $13 per barrel to $31 a barrel due to supply disruptions and other “fear” factors. 82 Bab el-Mandeb. The strait separates Africa (Djibouti and Eritrea) and Asia (Yemen), and it connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean via the Gulf of Aden. The strait is an oil transit chokepoint since most of Europe’s crude oil from the Middle East passes north through Bab el-Mandeb into the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal.83 Closure of the strait due to terrorist activities or for political/military reasons, could keep tankers from the Persian Gulf from reaching the Suez Canal and Sumed Pipeline complex, diverting them around the southern tip of Africa (the Cape of Good Hope).84 This would add greatly to transit time and cost, and would effectively tie-up spare tanker capacity. Closure of the Bab el-Mandeb would effectively block non-oil shipping from using the Suez Canal.85 In October 2002 the French-flagged tanker Limburg was attacked off the coast of Yemen by terrorists.86 During the Yom Kippur War in 1973, Egypt closed the strait as a means of blockading the southern Israeli port of Eilat.87 The Turkish Straits and Caspian Oil. The term “Turkish Straits” refers to the two narrow straits in northwestern Turkey, the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, which connect the Sea of Marmara with the Black Sea on one side and the Aegean arm of the Mediterranean Sea on the other. Turkey and Russia have been locked in a longstanding dispute over passage issues involving the Turkish Straits.88 The 1936 Montreux Convention puts Turkey in charge of regulating traffic through the straits;89 yet Turkey has been hard pressed to stop an onslaught of Russian, Ukrainian, and Cypriot tankers, which transport Caspian Sea oil to markets in Western Europe.90 Because of the very heavy shipping traffic and very challenging geography, there have been many collisions and groundings in the past, creating terrible pollution incidents and death.91 Thus far, none of these incidents have been attributed to state-on-state-conflict or terrorism;92 however, the confined waterway is an especially attractive target because of the grave economic and environmental damage that would result from a well-timed and well-placed attack on a loaded tanker. The issues surrounding the straits are also a subset of larger problems associated with the exploitation of Caspian oil, including severe pollution of the Caspian Sea as a result of imprudent extraction techniques, as well as the ever-present potential for conflict among the various claimants to the Caspian’s hydrocarbon resources due to an inability of the various Caspian littoral states to agree on their maritime boundaries—and their legal areas in which to drill.93 Any one of these problems could become a major flashpoint in the future. China vs. Japan. The Daiyu/Senkaku islands located in the East China Sea have become an increasingly contentious dispute because both claimants have, in the past, used modern military platforms to patrol the areas of their claims in which there are suspected oil and gas deposits in the seabed.94 In September 2005, for example, China dispatched five warships to disputed waters surrounding its oil and gas platforms, which were spotted by a Japanese maritime patrol aircraft.95 There have been other similar military-to-military encounters.96 Given the fact that both countries have modern armed forces and are comparatively energy starved, it is not difficult to envision serious conflict erupting over these disputed areas. The Arctic Super Highway. Traditionalists would probably not include the Arctic as a security chokepoint. The oil connection is reasonably well known: “22 percent of the world’s undiscovered energy reserves are projected to be in the region (including 13 percent of the world’s petroleum and 30 percent of natural gas).”97 However, given the very small margins that transporters earn transporting oil from point A to B,98 shipping companies are always in search of shorter routes to transport oil to market. As the thawing of the Arctic Ocean continues as a result of climate change,99 this may create new shipping routes that transporters of oil and other goods will use to maximize their profits and minimize their transit times. As supplies of readily exploitable crude oil are reduced, the probability increases that some of this trade will result from exploitation activities in the land and littoral areas adjacent to the Arctic Sea. This development is concerning for a number of reasons: (1) the area is very remote and could provide a safe haven to pirates seeking to hijack cargoes; (2) the environmental sensitivity of the area, and the concomitant difficulty of mounting a cleanup effort, means that an oil spill in that marine environment will be much more persistent than an oil spill in temperate waters;100 (3) the Arctic presents unique navigational difficulties due to the lack of good charts, navigational aids, and communications towers, as well as the impacts of extreme cold on the operational effectiveness of systems;101 (4) the unsettled nature of claims by various countries, including the United States, to the seabed continental shelf resources in the littoral areas off their coastlines creates the potential for military competition and conflict over these claims.102 The International Maritime Organization (“IMO”) is now circulating draft guidelines for ships operating in Arctic areas to promote—but not require—ship hardening against an iceberg strike, better crew training, and environmental protection measures.103 These guidelines are merely advisory and can only be implemented via the flag states.104 Also, neither IMO nor any of the UN Law of the Sea Institutions have mandatory jurisdiction over any of the flashpoint issues re- lating to competing continental shelf claims in the Arctic,105 meaning that any disputes will remain unresolved for a long time. The above is only a selected list of potential flashpoints in which oil is the main culprit. Disputes between China and six other nations of the Spratly Islands, and other territories in the South China Sea, remain unresolved.106 The Spratly Islands could become a flashpoint in the future, involving the United States or its allies, because of the proximity of those areas to the major sea routes to Japan and Korea.107 The strategic straits of Malacca, Lombok, and Sunda in Southeast Asia are absolutely essential to the movement of raw materials to Japan, Korea, and China.108 Because of Lombok’s depth and strategic location, it is a major transit route for very large crude carriers that move between the Middle East and Asia.109 Lombok is an undefended waterway that is only eighteen kilometers in width at its southern opening, making it an attractive chokepoint for hijacking or eco-terrorism in which the waters of the environmentally sensitive Indonesian archipelago would be held hostage.110 Shippings key to naval powerAlberto, et al., 5 (Lieutenant Colonel Ronald P., U.S. Army, Colonel Michael G. Archuleta, U.S. Air Force, Lieutenant Colonel Steven H. Bills, U.S. Air Force, Commander William A. Bransom, U.S. Navy, Mr. Kenneth Cohen, Department of State, Commander William A. Ebbs, U.S. Navy, George Manjgaladze, Ministry of Defense, Republic of Georgia, Commander Elizabeth B. Myhre, U.S. Navy, Audrea M. Nelson, DA, Robert L. Riddick, Department of Defense, Colonel Christopher M. Ross, U.S. Army, Julia N. Ruhnke, DA, Lieutenant Colonel Gregory M. Ryan, U.S. Marine Corps, Colonel David D. Thompson, U.S. Air Force, Commander Hugh D. Wetherald, U.S. Navy, Dr. Mark Montroll, faculty at the Industrial College of the Armed Forces, Dr. Michael Farbman, USAID, faculty at the Industrial College of the Armed Forces, Captain David B. Hill, U.S. Coast Guard, faculty at the Industrial College of the Armed Forces, “SHIPBUILDING”, The Industrial College of the Armed Forces, National Defense University, 2005, http://www.ndu.edu/icaf/programs/academic/industry/reports/2005/pdf/icaf-is-report-shipbuilding-2005.pdf,) In conclusion, our study found that the tremendous advantage the US enjoys in naval power directly supports our national security through global power projection and maintaining freedom of the seas. Our ability to build large, highly capable naval ships is a vital part of our naval superiority and is therefore inexorably linked to our national security. The US must maintain it lead in naval power by protecting its domestic shipbuilding industry. It is our conclusion that the number one issue facing the American military shipbuilder today is the uncertainty in future orders for ship construction. The year to year fluctuation in the projected naval order book adds uncertainty for the shipbuilder wanting to invest in capital and labor improvement, and adds cost to the vessels actually being delivered. This fluctuation is exacerbated when the US Navy cancels entire ship classes or severely limits procurement of vessels that have been programs of record, programs which the shipbuilders have used to make labor and capital investment decisions. We feel it is imperative for the Navy to identify the force of the future and commit to a stable procurement plan to implement that force. The concept of Seabasing must mature at least to the point where the major yards can invest in the infrastructure necessary to build the force. In this area, we also conclude that the requirement for full funding of naval vessels in the year of authorization hampers the ability of the Navy and the industry to maintain a steady shipbuilding plan. It is apparent to us that the US Navy shipbuilding program is often used as a “bill payer” for other DoD priorities. In addition to the reality that the money is not obligated in the year of funding, the temptation to use the US Navy shipbuilding account to pay current year expenses is greater if significant procurement dollars are available to pay the full cost of individual ships. While we are convinced the nation must maintain sufficient shipbuilding capacity to allow for surge in national emergencies, we feel that the current and projected naval order book does not support the capacity being carried by the six largest shipyards. Restructuring of the industrial base is necessary. This restructuring may entail the politically difficult decision to allow some yards to close, but if the naval order book does not increase and the restructuring does not occur, unit cost will continue to skyrocket out of proportion to the value to the nation of the vessel. Naval power controls all conflict escalationEaglen ‘11 (Mackenzie research fellow for national security – Heritage, and Bryan McGrath, former naval officer and director – Delex Consulting, Studies and Analysis, “Thinking About a Day Without Sea Power: Implications for U.S. Defense Policy,” Heritage Foundation
The U.S. Navy’s global presence has added immeasurably to U.S. economic vitality and to the economies of America’s friends and allies, not to mention those of its enemies. World wars, which destroyed Europe and much of East Asia, have become almost incomprehensible thanks to the “nuclear taboo” and preponderant American sea power. If these conditions are removed, all bets are off. For more than five centuries, the global system of trade and economic development has grown and prospered in the presence of some dominant naval power. Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and now the U.S. have each taken a turn as the major provider of naval power to maintain the global system. Each benefited handsomely from the investment: These navies, in times of peace, secured the global commons and ensured freedom of movement of goods and people across the globe. They supported global trading systems from the age of mercantilism to the industrial revolution and into the modern era of capitalism. They were a gold standard for international exchange. These forces supported national governments that had specific global agendas for liberal trade, the rule of law at sea, and the protection of maritime commerce from illicit activities such as piracy and smuggling.4 A preponderant naval power occupies a unique position in the global order, a special seat at the table, which when unoccupied creates conditions for instability. Both world wars, several European-wide conflicts, and innumerable regional fights have been fueled by naval arms races, inflamed by the combination of passionate rising powers and feckless declining powers. Anti-access technology will make power projection impossible in key regions of US naval influenceGaldorisi ‘11 George, (USN – retired), naval aviator who began his writing career in 1978 with an article in U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings. His Navy career included four command tours and five years as a carrier strike group chief of staff, as well as three years leading the United States delegation for military-to-military talks with the Chinese navy. He has written eight books, as well as over 200 articles in professional journals and other media. He is currently the director of the Corporate Strategy Group at the Navy’s C4ISR Center of Excellence in San Diego, California.
To understand some of the impetus behind the Tipping Point study, it is important to understand the overarching geostrategic context and the “high-end” missions the U.S. Navy may be called on to perform. As Norman Friedman points out in the Spring 2010 Year in Defense Naval Edition, nations such as China and Iran are fielding substantial anti-access/area denial (or A2/AD) capabilities that could substantially inhibit the U.S. Navy’s ability to carry out its missions. In the case of China, according to Friedman, “The Chinese are interested in convincing the U.S. government that the U.S. Navy’s carriers cannot survive anywhere near Taiwan.” The compelling nature of this threat has raised serious concerns within the DoD regarding the ability of the Navy and the Air Force to project power in East Asia and the Arabian Gulf. This concern led directly to two studies conducted by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) in early 2010: “Why AirSea Battle?” and “AirSea Battle: A Point-of-Departure Operational Concept.” CSBA analyzed possible options to deal with compelling A2/AD threats nations such as China and Iran possess. The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) provided greater clarity on the scope and raison d’être behind this concept. As part of its guidance to rebalance the force, the QDR directed the development of the AirSea Battle Concept in order to: Defeat adversaries across the range of military operations, including adversaries equipped with sophisticated anti-access and area denial capabilities. The concept will address how air and naval forces will integrate capabilities across all operational domains – air, sea, land, space, and cyberspace – to counter growing challenges to U.S. freedom of action. It is important to recognize that neither the term AirSea Battle Concept (ASBC), nor the concept itself, are brand-new. This integration of sea and air forces has roots that extend back more than half a century and was highlighted two decades ago by then-Cmdr. James Stavridis (now admiral, Supreme Allied Commander Europe) in a 1992 National Defense University paper where he suggested, “We need an air sea battle concept centered on an immediately deployable, highly capable, and fully integrated force – an Integrated Strike Force.” What is new is the compelling nature of the A2/AD capability of nations that threaten to use them against U.S. power-projection assets and especially against U.S. Navy carrier strike groups. As the CSBA studies and other analysis suggest, China and Iran are investing in capabilities to raise precipitously over time – and perhaps prohibitively – the cost to the United States of projecting power into two areas of vital interest: the Western Pacific and the Persian Gulf. By expanding their A2/AD capabilities, these potential adversaries seek to deny U.S forces the sanctuary of forward bases, hold aircraft carriers and their air wings at risk, and cripple U.S. battle networks. In other words, strike at the weak point of U.S. power-projection capability. (This, too, is not new, as the Chinese military philosopher, Sun Tzu, explained 3,600 years ago: “The Army led by the wise general avoids the strong and rushes to the weak.”) To understand the compelling A2/AD challenge facing the U.S. Navy, a word or two regarding China and Iran’s capabilities and capacity is in order. China’s impressive store of missiles hedges against a “Taiwan contingency” while simultaneously undergirding its anti-access/area denial efforts in the Asia Pacific region. One notable effort in this regard is the development of the world’s first anti-ship “carrier killer” ballistic missile, the DF-21D. Patrick Cronin, senior director of the Asia Program at the Center for a New American Security, wrote, “The DF-21D is the ultimate carrier-killer missile.” Moreover, Commander of U.S. Pacific Command Adm. Robert F. Willard, in August 2010, warned that the DF-21D is “close to being operational.” Iran continues to be a source of instability throughout the Central Command area of responsibility. Even with national and international sanctions in place, the rhetoric from the regime has not abated. More troubling, Iran’s nuclear program continues to vex regional and international powers, with no resolution in sight. CSBA’s Andrew Krepinevich characterizes the Iranian threat mainly in terms of its development of A2/AD capabilities. These include mobile anti-ship cruise missiles, submarines, small high-speed coastal vessels, and sea mines. He noted that “while the situation may be manageable for U.S. maritime forces over the near term, Iran seems determined to continue developing more formidable A2/AD capabilities that could impact commercial shipping and energy production throughout the region.”
That unleashes a laundry list of nuclear conflictsEaglen ‘11 (Mackenzie research fellow for national security – Heritage, and Bryan McGrath, former naval officer and director – Delex Consulting, Studies and Analysis, “Thinking About a Day Without Sea Power: Implications for U.S. Defense Policy,” Heritage Foundation
Global Implications. Under a scenario of dramatically reduced naval power, the United States would cease to be active in any international alliances. While it is reasonable to assume that land and air forces would be similarly reduced in this scenario, the lack of credible maritime capability to move their bulk and establish forward bases would render these forces irrelevant, even if the Army and Air Force were retained at today’s levels. In Iraq and Afghanistan today, 90 percent of material arrives by sea, although material bound for Afghanistan must then make a laborious journey by land into theater. China’s claims on the South China Sea, previously disputed by virtually all nations in the region and routinely contested by U.S. and partner naval forces, are accepted as a fait accompli, effectively turning the region into a “Chinese lake.” China establishes expansive oil and gas exploration with new deepwater drilling technology and secures its local sea lanes from intervention. Korea, unified in 2017 after the implosion of the North, signs a mutual defense treaty with China and solidifies their relationship. Japan is increasingly isolated and in 2020–2025 executes long-rumored plans to create an indigenous nuclear weapons capability.11 By 2025, Japan has 25 mobile nuclear-armed missiles ostensibly targeting China, toward which Japan’s historical animus remains strong. China’s entente with Russia leaves the Eurasian landmass dominated by Russia looking west and China looking east and south. Each cedes a sphere of dominance to the other and remains largely unconcerned with the events in the other’s sphere. Worldwide, trade in foodstuffs collapses. Expanding populations in the Middle East increase pressure on their governments, which are already stressed as the breakdown in world trade disproportionately affects food importers. Piracy increases worldwide, driving food transportation costs even higher. In the Arctic, Russia aggressively asserts its dominance and effectively shoulders out other nations with legitimate claims to seabed resources. No naval power exists to counter Russia’s claims. India, recognizing that its previous role as a balancer to China has lost relevance with the retrenchment of the Americans, agrees to supplement Chinese naval power in the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf to protect the flow of oil to Southeast Asia. In exchange, China agrees to exercise increased influence on its client state Pakistan. The great typhoon of 2023 strikes Bangladesh, killing 23,000 people initially, and 200,000 more die in the subsequent weeks and months as the international community provides little humanitarian relief. Cholera and malaria are epidemic. Iran dominates the Persian Gulf and is a nuclear power. Its navy aggressively patrols the Gulf while the Revolutionary Guard Navy harasses shipping and oil infrastructure to force Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries into Tehran’s orbit. Russia supplies Iran with a steady flow of military technology and nuclear industry expertise. Lacking a regional threat, the Iranians happily control the flow of oil from the Gulf and benefit economically from the “protection” provided to other GCC nations. In Egypt, the decade-long experiment in participatory democracy ends with the ascendance of the Muslim Brotherhood in a violent seizure of power. The United States is identified closely with the previous coalition government, and riots break out at the U.S. embassy. Americans in Egypt are left to their own devices because the U.S. has no forces in the Mediterranean capable of performing a noncombatant evacuation when the government closes major airports. Led by Iran, a coalition of Egypt, Syria, Jordan, and Iraq attacks Israel. Over 300,000 die in six months of fighting that includes a limited nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel. Israel is defeated, and the State of Palestine is declared in its place. Massive “refugee” camps are created to house the internally displaced Israelis, but a humanitarian nightmare ensues from the inability of conquering forces to support them. The NATO alliance is shattered. The security of European nations depends increasingly on the lack of external threats and the nuclear capability of France, Britain, and Germany, which overcame its reticence to military capability in light of America’s retrenchment. Europe depends for its energy security on Russia and Iran, which control the main supply lines and sources of oil and gas to Europe. Major European nations stand down their militaries and instead make limited contributions to a new EU military constabulary force. No European nation maintains the ability to conduct significant out-of-area operations, and Europe as a whole maintains little airlift capacity. Implications for America’s Economy. If the United States slashed its Navy and ended its mission as a guarantor of the free flow of transoceanic goods and trade, globalized world trade would decrease substantially. As early as 1890, noted U.S. naval officer and historian Alfred Thayer Mahan described the world’s oceans as a “great highway…a wide common,” underscoring the long-running importance of the seas to trade.12 Geographically organized trading blocs develop as the maritime highways suffer from insecurity and rising fuel prices. Asia prospers thanks to internal trade and Middle Eastern oil, Europe muddles along on the largesse of Russia and Iran, and the Western Hemisphere declines to a “new normal” with the exception of energy-independent Brazil. For America, Venezuelan oil grows in importance as other supplies decline. Mexico runs out of oil—as predicted—when it fails to take advantage of Western oil technology and investment. Nigerian output, which for five years had been secured through a partnership of the U.S. Navy and Nigerian maritime forces, is decimated by the bloody civil war of 2021. Canadian exports, which a decade earlier had been strong as a result of the oil shale industry, decline as a result of environmental concerns in Canada and elsewhere about the “fracking” (hydraulic fracturing) process used to free oil from shale. State and non-state actors increase the hazards to seaborne shipping, which are compounded by the necessity of traversing key chokepoints that are easily targeted by those who wish to restrict trade. These chokepoints include the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran could quickly close to trade if it wishes. More than half of the world’s oil is transported by sea. “From 1970 to 2006, the amount of goods transported via the oceans of the world…increased from 2.6 billion tons to 7.4 billion tons, an increase of over 284%.”13 In 2010, “$40 billion dollars sic worth of oil passes through the world’s geographic ‘chokepoints’ on a daily basis…not to mention $3.2 trillion…annually in commerce that moves underwater on transoceanic cables.”14 These quantities of goods simply cannot be moved by any other means. Thus, a reduction of sea trade reduces overall international trade. U.S. consumers face a greatly diminished selection of goods because domestic production largely disappeared in the decades before the global depression. As countries increasingly focus on regional rather than global trade, costs rise and Americans are forced to accept a much lower standard of living. Some domestic manufacturing improves, but at significant cost. In addition, shippers avoid U.S. ports due to the onerous container inspection regime implemented after investigators discover that the second dirty bomb was smuggled into the U.S. in a shipping container on an innocuous Panamanian-flagged freighter. As a result, American consumers bear higher shipping costs. The market also constrains the variety of goods available to the U.S. consumer and increases their cost. A Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report makes this abundantly clear. A one-week shutdown of the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports would lead to production losses of $65 million to $150 million (in 2006 dollars) per day. A three-year closure would cost $45 billion to $70 billion per year ($125 million to $200 million per day). Perhaps even more shocking, the simulation estimated that employment would shrink by approximately 1 million jobs.15 These estimates demonstrate the effects of closing only the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports. On a national scale, such a shutdown would be catastrophic. The Government Accountability Office notes that: Over 95 percent of U.S. international trade is transported by water; thus, the safety and economic security of the United States depends in large part on the secure use of the world’s seaports and waterways. A successful attack on a major seaport could potentially result in a dramatic slowdown in the international supply chain with impacts in the billions of dollars.16
Mobile Airborne Wind Energy platforms would be able to propel Naval Vessels Canale et al 10 M. Canale , L. Fagiano , M. Milanese , V. Razza Politecnico di Torino, Dipartimento di Automatica e Informatica, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24 – 10129 Torino – Italy 2010 “Control of tethered airfoils for sustainable marine transportation”IEEE International Conference on Control Applications Part of 2010 IEEE Multi-Conference on Systems and Control Yokohama, Japan, September 8-10, 2010 http:~/~/ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=andarnumber=5611085url:http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=andarnumber=5611085
The described concept of high-altitude wind power generation is being also applied in the field of marine transportation. In particular, the forces acting on the cable(s) can be exploited for naval propulsion, an idea that is being currently developed and industrialized by some companies around the world, like SkySails GmbH 6. By using a 160-m2-area kite with a single cable and actuators placed onboard of the wing, SkySails GmbH claims that a 30% reduction of fuel consumption can be achieved on large transportation ships. Moreover, the potential of a kite boat system similar to the one of 6 has been studied in 7, considering the problem of computing kite orbits that are optimal with respect to the traction forces applied to the boat. In 7 and in the systems developed by SkySails, the cable length is fixed and wind energy is employed only to tow the boat. Indeed, the use of tethered wings to tow a boat brings several advantages with respect to classical sails, due to the possibility for the airfoils to reach stronger winds blowing at higher altitudes and to fly fast in crosswind direction, without being fixed with respect to the boat, thus maximizing the traction forces. Moreover, by installing a KE-yoyo generator on the ship, onboard energy generation can be added to naval propulsion. The generated energy can then be suitably stored and used to supply power to onboard electrical devices and eventually electric engines, to be used when the wind conditions and/or the boat course are not suitable for kite naval propulsion (e.g. when entering into an harbor). In this paper, the above-described idea of using a KE-yoyo generator to achieve both naval propulsion and onboard energy generation is investigated considering a small boat (i.e. a 38–feet–long yacht). Such a study is part of the KiteNav project undergoing at Politecnico di Torino, in which the existing prototype KE-yoyo has been recently installed on a boat and experimental tests have been performed (a movie of the tests is available 8). In the system configuration considered here, the kite is linked with two cables to the boat, instead of the single cable considered in 6, 7. This way, the kite can be controlled by differentially pulling the lines via actuators placed on the boat and avoiding the use of wireless actuators on the wing. Moreover, in the case of breaking of one cable, the presence of two lines makes it possible to recover both the wing and the lines.
Plan:
The United States Federal Government should substantially reduce airspace restrictions on airborne wind energy production in the United States.
Solvency
The FAA has several restrictions on airborne windFAA ‘11 Federal Aviation Administration, Federal Register/Vol. 76, No. 235/Wednesday, December 7, 2011/Proposed Rules Docket No.: FAA–2011–1279; Notice No. 11–07 Notification for Airborne Wind Energy Systems (AWES) http:~/~/www.energykitesystems.net/FAA/htm, AM
In order to facilitate the timely manner in which AWES proposals are reviewed, AWES developers and operators are requested to limit temporary operations to the following: (1) Airborne operations of AWES should be temporary in nature for testing and data collection purposes only; (2) Single AWES devices only (e.g.--no ``farms'' or multiple simultaneous testing); (3) AWES should be limited to a single fixed location (e.g.--no mobile ground facilities); (4) Testing is confined to heights at or below 499 feet above ground level (AGL); (5) Airborne flight testing of AWES will only occur during daylight hours; and (6) AWES will be made conspicuous to the flying public. (The sponsor of the AWES will provide the FAA with their marking and lighting scheme. FAA Advisory Circular 70/7460-1K (AC 70/7460-1K), Obstruction Marking and Lighting, currently does not address AWES, but may be used as a guide, as some portions may be applicable.)
These restrictions are preventing adequate research and development Legget 12 Nickolaus E. Leggett, Licensed aircraft Pilot, certified electronics technician (ISCET and AND 07 To the Federal Aviation Administration: Formal Comments of Nickolaus E. Leggett
The first AWES prototypes should be operated in large but restricted airspace currently used for military practice work and/or for unmanned aircraft operations. The use of these areas is quite structured and disciplined which would be a useful starting point for learning to live with AWES installations. The proposed limit of testing to 499 feet AGL is totally inadequate for research and development. This low height can be easily reached with a child’s classical hand-held kite. I have done it myself as a child. Such a low altitude does not represent the full physical situation of a commercial AWES installation. At this low altitude, the wind will often be too low to support a kite-type AWES installation. A limit of near 2000 feet AGL is more appropriate for tests of actual deployed AWES installations. This would allow industrial-sized AWES to be tested in a realistic manner where a heavy structure is supported by the air and is exposed to the weather changes. Limiting AWES tests to daylight hours is also inadequate for realistic testing. An important part of any testing program is to expose the AWES to the variations of the weather over long periods of time (at least months). Any commercial AWES will have to survive and produce power continuously for long periods of time just as commercial terrestrial wind farms do. They will not be deploying these rather complex devices every morning. Think of an AWES as being more like a suspension bridge. You set it up and you leave it for long periods of time. Some mobile AWES installations will be used in the future. For example, specifically designed AWES could be used to provide electric power to ships at sea while they are in motion. This type of power could be used to recharge navy ships that are equipped with electric rail gun systems. Other mobile AWES could be used to resupply energy to fuel-cell propelled ships at sea via the electrolysis of water. Some mobile AWES will be used over land for large open-pit mining operations, prospecting efforts, and large agricultural properties. As a result of this, some controlled testing of mobile and portable AWES prototypes should be allowed by the FAA. Some testing of multiple-unit AWES is also needed to understand the aerodynamics of operating several units in close proximity to each other in various weather conditions and climates. It is important to realize that a whole new family of devices is being developed here and so a fairly liberal testing environment is needed
AWE RandD investment now Diehl et al, 11 (Moritz Diehl (K.U. Leuven), Reinhart Paelinck (K.U. Leuven), and Richard Ruiterkamp (AmpyxPower), http:~/~/www.awec2011.com/http://www.awec2011.com/) The AWE industry is in a crucial year: after Fukushima, the world is more intensively than ever looking for alternatives to both fossil fuels and nuclear power, to avoid the different problems associated with them, and finally, solar and wind power are widely recognized as realistic alternatives. The foreseeable boom in conventional wind power, which in contrast to airborne wind energy is a tested technology with well-known investment risks, will create a novel environment for AWE developers. On the one hand, economies of scale will make the competition with conventional wind power installations tougher and tougher every month; on the other hand, a growing overall market for wind power will also lead to more investment in research and development of niche products. AWE products might grow in one of these niches, with the potential to significantly extend the economical scope of wind power in particular off-shore and in remote locations. It is a good time to bring together at AWEC 2011, close the European capital, a critical mass of scientists, entrepreneurs, investors, and political actors, that are interested in shaping the future of airborne wind energy.
Petro majors will participate -~-- it's a cost savings.Texier 11 - Innovation Analyst @ com/search?search=andtitle=Innovation+Analyst+-+CleantechandsortCriteria=RandkeepFacets=trueandcurrentTitle=C EDF Maud Texier “Offshore Oil and Gas: a renewable energy?,” Sia com/author/admin, July 1, 2011url:http://energy.sia-partners.com/1506 pg. http://tinyurl.com/c7pzupg
The IEA announces in its last annual report that the peak oil had been reached in 20061. Thousands of rigs, all around the world, currently produce oil and gas from offshore fields. By 2050 however, their decommissioning will be compulsory as their lifespan is limited and oil resources are decreasing. How could we, first, dismantle those rigs and while avoiding on-site pollution, then, recycle dozens of thousands tons of steel, and guarantee an optimized profitability? Far from being a burden for the petroleum industry, on the contrary, those oil rigs can represent key-players for the energy changeover: by using them and install offshore wind turbines on top of them. Toward the combination of offshore oil and gas with wind power
This concept becomes even more interesting as areas with a high density of oil rigs match with offshore high wind potential areas: the North Sea and Gulf of Mexico for instance. Currently 450 oil rigs are standing in the North Sea as the average wind speed is 9 m/s. Same as in the Gulf of Mexico with 3858 oil rigs for an average wind speed between 7 and 8,5 m/s. Those rigs have a 20 to 30-year lifespan; hence all of them will have to be removed by 2050. We can then easily imagine in 2050, thanks to those rigs, offshore wind farms supplying onshore areas nearby with a high density of population. This concept has indeed a great potential in the Gulf of Mexico: considering for a 5 MW2 wind turbine a load factor of 23%, and for the rigs a reuse factor between 40% and 60%, depending on their shape and location, we can estimate an annual electricity production from 15,5 to 23,3 TWh, which is equivalent to the residential electric consumption of a city such as Chicago in 2005 3. But wind energy potential is in reality far greater: offshore wind’s load factor is actually greater than onshore’s and can reach 30% depending on the area. An unsuspected power potential Offshore wind turbines capacities are increasing, thus the real power production will go far beyond those estimates by 2050. Several projects are making this idea into a reality: in the North Sea, a company named Talisman has installed several steel-jacket wind turbines for its project Beatrice. By using offshore oil and gas” know-how”, long mastered technologies are now experimentally used for an activity in development: wind energy. Actually the seed of this idea is already germinating in industrials minds: SeaEnergy Renewables Company, created by former experts from the petroleum industry, has already bought the patent rights for this concept aiming at a future marketing, and scientific studies on offshore wind potential have been performed in the Gulf of Mexico4. Although wind turbine and steel jacket technologies are already fully mastered, their connection to the electric grid is still in development: DC current lines lying on the seabed and covering hundreds of kilometers are still very expensive. Supergrids are nonetheless in the beginning of their business boom as several ongoing projects; hence we expect first feedbacks and learning’s by ten years. Moreover additional costs to plug wind farms to the onshore electric grid, estimated today to 700 k€/MW5, will be compensated, at least partially, by the savings on rig’s decommissioning. Thanks to this process of reuse, the steel jacket is actually not removed from the seabed, what represents a saving on the overall decommissioning cost: in the Gulf of Mexico, decommissioning cost reaches 1400$/ton, what is equal to save around 11,2 M€ per oil rig. This cost reduction added to feedbacks on offshore electric grids will enable to improve the overall economics for this kind of project. By ten years answers will be given to current technical padlocks. Furthermore, this concrete solution would enable, during the coming transition phase, to capitalize on fossil fuels era’s know-how in order to promote renewable energies development. This offshore wind energy concept represents hence the opportunity for petroleum majors to adapt to the new emerging energy market and at the same time uses advantages of offshore wind energy against onshore projects.
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| 02/14/2013 | 2ac - space col addonTournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Plan enables exploration and pre-requisites to colonization Hausser et all 11 David - Master in Aerospace Engineering. Pradeep Kumar - Designation. Professor, Aerospace Programme. Department. Aerospace Engineering. Engineer IV at Goodrich Aerostructures. "mars aerial and subsurface exploration using the ‘lark’ (lighter than air kite) concept." http:~/~/www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/marsc oncepts2012/pdf/4194.pdf Introduction: With the overwhelming success of … aerial exploration platform that can explore Martian lavatubes through accessible skylights.
Extinction Mitchell and Staretz ’10 – Chief Science Officer and Executive Director of Quantrek – Edgar and Robert. Edgar was also an Apollo 14 Astronaut and 6th Person to Walk on the Moon. Quantrek is a 501(c)3 non-partisan NPO focused on “Engendering the Best Possible Future Through Frontier Science” “Our Destiny – A Space Faring Civilization?” The Journal of Cosmology, 2010 www.journalofcosmology.com/html There are many other reasons to travel to … being threatened by our own doing | ||
| 02/14/2013 | 2ac - korea war addonTournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Korean War 2ac addon
Extinction Hayes and Hamel-Green, 10 – *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND ** Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf) The international community is increasingly aware that … the international community. | ||
| 02/14/2013 | 2ac - T restrictionsTournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: We meet – we make production possible where it was not before. If we don't meet, no one does. Federal Register 9 “Renewable Energy and Alternate Uses of Existing Facilities on the Outer Continental Shelf; Final Rule,” 30 CFR Parts 250, 285, and 290, Volume 74, Number 81 (Wednesday, April 29, 2009), pg. http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2009-04-29/html/E9-9462.htm
This section explains that, … , you will first need a lease from MMS and later be required to seek a license from FERC.
Counter interp - Restrictions on production are statutes that make production more difficult or expensive. LVM 96 (Ludwig Von Mises Institute, Original Book by Ludwig Von Mises, Austrian Economist in 1940. Evidence is cut from fourth edition copyright Bettina B. Greaves, Human Action, http://mises.org/pdf/humanaction/pdf/ha_29.pdf)
Restriction of production … higher to locations in which it is lower. It does not increase production; it curtails it.
That’s specifically true for this topic Phil et al 12 Erik Phil and Filip Johnsson, Division of Energy Technology, Chalmers University of Technolog, and Duncan Kushnir and Bjorn Sanden, Division of Environmental Systems Analysis, Chalmers University of Technology, August 2012,Material constraints for concentrating solar thermal powerEnergy Volume 44, Issue 1, August 2012, Pages 944–954
The available solar flux on land is several thousand … 2 has pinpointed a need to investigate the limits and potential bottlenecks and manufacturing constraints for CSP production.
Substantially means nearly all.
83-10 Definition of Terms – Grids – Sedentary Requires Hands and Fingers This is a detailed explanation of the … hand-finger action.”
Prefer -
Restriction ON energy production checks—lots of regulations can increase the final energy cost because of distribution, transmission, manufacturing regs, but the word “on” limits topical affs to regulations tied to production Dictionary.com no date, http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/on On preposition 1.so as to be or remain supported by or suspended from: Put your package down on the table; Hang your coat on the hook. 2.so as to be attached to or unified with: Hang the picture on the wall. Paste the label on the package.
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| 02/14/2013 | 2ac - obama goodTournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Gun control thumps—multiple executive actions now and controversy Reuters 1/16 (“Obama unveils biggest gun-control push in decades,” http:~/~/www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/16/com/article/2013/01/16/us-usa-guns-idUSBRE90F0NU20130116) KJS President Barack Obama proposed a new … is currently the acting director of the law enforcement agency.
Winners win and political capitals not key Hirsch, 2-7 (Michael, Michael Hirsh is chief correspondent for National Journal. He also contributes to 2012 Nelson-Salathe Aff Hirsh previously served as the senior editor and national economics correspondent for Newsweek, based in its Washington bureau. He was also Newsweek’s Washington web editor and authored a weekly column for Newsweek.com, “The World from Washington.” Earlier on, he was Newsweek’s foreign editor, guiding its award-winning coverage of the September 11 attacks and the war on terror. He has done on-the-ground reporting in Iraq, Afghanistan, and other places around the world, and served as the Tokyo-based Asia Bureau Chief for Institutional Investor from 1992 to 1994. “There’s No Such Thing as Political Capital,” http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207?page=1) Naturally, any president has practical and … the winning side. It’s a bandwagon effect.”
Turn – AWE popular Danigelis, 10 (Alyssa Danigelis, Airborne Wind Turbins Lift Off, http:~/~/www.silverbearcafe.com/private/06.10/turbines.htmlhttp://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/06.10/turbines.html(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt" %)) To help get high altitude wind stakeholders on the same page, the Airborne Wind Energy org/||target="_blank" was formed this year. In September the consortium and NASA will hold a conference to highlight the latest research, including materials, technology and regulatory issues. … systems for energy research and development.
Low PC inevitable and not key Schier 11 Steven E. Schier is the Dorothy H. and Edward C. Congdon professor of political science at Carleton College, The contemporary presidency: the presidential authority problem and the political power trap. Presidential Studies Quarterly December 1, 2011 lexis Implications of the Evidence¶ … the Clinton and George W. Bush presidencies demonstrate.
FAA shields politics Dobkin 8—past Chairperson of the Immigration Law Section of the Oakland County (Michigan) Bar Association and has lectured and presented seminars on immigration in the U.S., Canada and the U.K. (Donald, THE RISE OF THE ADMINISTRATIVE STATE: APRESCRIPTION FOR LAWLESSNESS, www.law.ku.edu/publications/journal/pdf/v17n3/pdf) Because an agency’s actions often receive far … arreaching and controversial Peer Review Bulletin, which guides agency decisions. 38
Plan is overwhelmingly popular Schwartz and Wald 1/2/13 Nelson, Reporter at The New York Times. Past. Senior Writer/Europe Editor at Fortune Magazine, and Matthew, reporter for NYT, “Some Breaks for Industries Are Retained in Fiscal Deal,” http:~/~/www.nytimes.com/2013/01/03/business/some-breaks-for-industries-are-retained-in-fiscal-deal.html?_r=0url:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/03/business/some-breaks-for-industries-are-retained-in-fiscal-deal.html?_r=0, AM
The wind industry, a chief beneficiary of support from …, as are 67 percent of the factories. | ||
| 02/14/2013 | 2ac - China WindTournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: PTC extension will massively increase US wind production Bloomberg 1/2/12 Bloomberg news, “U.S. Credit Extension May Revive Stalled Wind Industry,” http:~/~/www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-02/html(%%), AM
The one-year extension of a U.S. … good position to get some construction started.”
Alt cause – trade duties Wald 2012 Matthew - nytime energy reporter may 30th "U.S. Imposes Duties on Chinese Wind Tower Makers" www.nytimes.com/2012/05/31/business/energy-environment/us-imposes-duties-on-chinese-wind-towers.html?_r=0 WASHINGTON — Chinese …,” said Alan H. Price, a lawyer at Wiley Rein, which represented the Wind Tower Trade Coalition, the group of American manufacturers that brought the case.
Global wind expansion inevitable Sahu ‘13 Bikash Kumar Sahu, Moonmoon Hiloidhari, D.C. Baruah, Energy Conservation Laboratory, Department of Energy, Tezpur University, Tezpur, Assam 784028, India, “Global trend in wind power with special focus on the top five wind power producing countries,” Renewable andSustainableEnergyReviews19(2013)348–359, AM
In the last few decades the … power capacity will increase up to 600 and 1500 GW, respectively 18.
That either triggers the link or proves its wrong Nordhaus 11 William D, Sterling Professor of Economics; Cowles Foundation, Yale University, October 27, “Energy: Friend or Enemy?,” http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2011/oct/27/energy-friend-or-enemy/?pagination=false If we look at both the rhetoric and substance of oil … of sourcing imports from secure regions only.
Even if they get a link – China’s infrastructure couldn’t handle it Liu 12 Coco - EandE asian correspondent for climate wire. Grid problems steer China's huge wind power industry into financial doldrums" www.eenews.net/public/climatewire/2012/05/25/1url:http://www.eenews.net/public/climatewire/2012/05/25/1
SHANGHAI -- After years of nurturing … that covers about one-third of the nation
The only arg is CCP but no collapse—justified by the new impact Pei 9 (Minxin, Senior Associate in the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 3/12. “Will the Chinese Communist Party Survive the Crisis?” Foreign Affairs. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64862/minxin-pei/will-the-chinese-communist-party-survive-the-crisis)
It might seem reasonable to expect that challenges … conditions lead to a potentially explosive political situation, the party will stick to these tried-and-true practices to ward off any organized movement against the regime.
China wind collapsing now—their ev assumes the pre-2011 industry Sally Blakewell, 1/4/13, China Windpower Sees ‘Significant’ Profit Drop on Sales, Output, www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-04/china-windpower-sees-significant-profit-drop-on-sales-output.html
China Windpower Group Ltd. (182) … and approvals became harder. The company expects to release its full-year earnings in March.
Overwhelms the link--Industry unsustainable Zhohngying Sang, Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), PR China, Dec 2012, China's wind power industry: Policy support, technological achievements, and emerging challenges, Energy Policy Volume 51, December 2012, Pages 80–88
While China's wind power achievements are … sustainability of the industry. | ||
| 02/14/2013 | 2ac - heliumTournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Double bind – either legislation innev solves helium crunch or we sell it all Bonner 2-8 Lauren – DOTmed online news editor “Bipartisan bill introduced to save U.S. helium supply” http://www.dotmed.com/news/story/20441/ Members of the House … government pricing formula in recent years. NU: prices spikes inevitable in the short term – air productsZACKS ’12 (12/28/12, http:~/~/www.zacks.com/stock/news/89073/com/stock/news/89073/air-products-to-hike-helium-prices(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"" %))
Industrial gas giant Air Products and … in the cost of inputs and its operations given the ongoing global helium shortage. The pricing actions will help it to counter rising input costs.
No link – doesn’t need to use helium Rivard 10 Pierre - Chief Executive Officer of Magenn Power Inc. Mr. Rivard served as Chief Executive Officer and President of Hydrogenics Corp “Lets Go Fly a Turbine...” http:~/~/www.thenakedscientists.com/HTML/com/HTML/co ntent/interviews/interview/1283/ That’s correct. We could use … in the developing world.
Fed intervention outweighs the link to the AFF Magill ’12 (Bobby, “Helium Shortage - Why Is There a Helium Shortage?” 6/25/12, Popular Mechanics, http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/health/med-tech/why-is-there-a-helium-shortage-10031229)
A Government-Mandated Shortage? Where Congress once mandated that the …, but also around the world whenever the BLM crude price is adjusted."
This “Helium Cliff” makes the disad inevitable – congress won’t act in timeMagill ’12 (Bobby, “Helium Shortage - Why Is There a Helium Shortage?” 6/25/12, Popular Mechanics, http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/health/med-tech/why-is-there-a-helium-shortage-10031229)
A Way Out? Getting the government out of the … action on the bill since its introduction in April.
Plan doesn’t require helium blimps – there are 3 other technical designs
Giant helium supplies check Worstall, 12 -- Forbes contributor (Tim, "What Great Helium Shortage?" Forbes, 10-28-12, www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/08/27/what-great-helium-shortage/, accessed 10-28-12, mss)
Sounds scary, eh? The thing is there’s a … metres a year.
There’s something like 50 billion cubic metres lying … to trying to check the helium content of all that shale gas being fracked.
Alt cause- Balloons trigger the impact nowMcKie, 12 -- Observer Science Editor (Robin, "Helium stocks run low – and party balloons are to blame," Guardian, 3-17-12, www.guardian.co.uk/science/2012/mar/18/helium-party-balloons-squandered, accessed 10-28-12, mss)
Helium stocks run low – and party … the world's limited supplies of helium on party balloons. | ||
| 02/14/2013 | 2ac - NeolibTournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Incentives-based action is good-~--key to policy effectiveness – turns the KEconomist 5 (The Economist, April 21, “Rescuing environmentalism”, http://www.economist.com/node/3888006) “THE environmental movement's foundational …., command-and-control regulations to an enlightened age of informed, innovative, incentive-based greenery.
Perm do both
Their Link Evidence Does NOT Assume the Plan: their totalizing claims presume exploiting countries for their natural resources and not the plan which helps develop renewable resources.
No political crises Stelzer 9 Irwin Stelzer is a business adviser and director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute, “Death of capitalism exaggerated,” http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26174260-5013479,00.html A FUNNY thing happened on the way to the … countries, so far, so good for reformed capitalism. No substitutes accepted. Neolib’s inevitable and movements are getting smothered out of existence—no alternative economic systemJones 11—Owen, Masters at Oxford, named one of the Daily Telegraph's 'Top 100 Most Influential People on the Left' for 2011, author of "Chavs: The Demonization of the Working Class", The Independent, UK, "Owen Jones: Protest without politics will change nothing", 2011, www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/owen-jones-protest-without-politics-will-change-nothing-2373612.html My first experience of police kettling was aged 16. It was …. no left to give it direction and purpose.
Perm do the alt – it’s a floating pic – reason to vote aff
They’re wrong Larrivee 10— PF ECONOMICS AT MOUNT ST MARY’S UNIVERSITY – MASTERS FROM THE HARVARD KENNEDY SCHOOL AND PHD IN ECONOMICS FROM WISCONSIN, 10 JOHN, A FRAMEWORK FOR THE MORAL ANALYSIS OF MARKETS, 10/1, http:~/~/www.teacheconomicfreedom.org/files/pdf The Second Focal Point: Moral, Social, and Cultural Issues of …. of the problems in the first place, at least not to the degree theorized.
The most dangerous forms of neoliberalism are driven by authoritarians like Putin-~--no risk of a link to the plan because democracy checks neoliberalism here Ian Bruff 12, Lecturer in International Relations in the Department of Politics, History and International Relations at Loughborough University. He has been Chair of the Critical Political Economy Research Network of the European Sociological Association since 2009, and a member of the Steering Committee for the Standing Group on International Relations of the European Consortium for Political Research, 2012, “Authoritarian Neoliberalism, the Occupy Movements, and IPE,” Journal of Critical Globalization Studies, Issue 5, http:~/~/www.criticalglobalisation.com/issue5/114_116_AUTHORITARIAN_NEOLIBERALISM_pdf In the absence of any kind of hegemonic aura, neoliberal …. and reproduced in capitalist societies, enabling us to consider how other, more emancipatory and progressive, worlds are possible The squo is structurally improvingGoklany 9—Worked with federal and state governments, think tanks, and the private sector for over 35 years. Worked with IPCC before its inception as an author, delegate and reviewer. Negotiated UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Managed the emissions trading program for the EPA. Julian Simon Fellow at the Property and Environment Research Center, visiting fellow at AEI, winner of the Julian Simon Prize and Award. PhD, MS, electrical engineering, MSU. B.Tech in electrical engineering, Indian Institute of Tech. (Indur, “Have increases in population, affluence and technology worsened human and environmental well-being?” 2009, http://www.ejsd.org/docs/HAVE_INCREASES_IN_POPULATION_AFFLUENCE_AND_TECHNOLOGY_WORSENED_HUMAN_AND_ENVIRONMENTAL_WELL-BEING.pdf) Although global population is no longer growing exponentially, it ….., level of education, food supplies per capita, and the prevalence of malnutrition (Goklany 2007a, 2007b).
Alt fails-~--rejection doesn’t change production Rejection Fails—We are all hardwired for consumption it is only a question of whether it is green or not Allenby ‘7 (Brad, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Arizona State University, “The Benefits of Our Hardwired Need to Consume,” GreenBiz.com, March 7, 2007, http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2007/03/08/the-benefits-our-hardwired-need-consume)
That humans are inclined to make choices that …… complex and fundamental behaviors, such efforts can rebound against those who seek to impose such behavior change, regardless of their good intentions.
Turn - Transition Wars Aligica 03 – fellow at the Mercatus Center, George Mason University, and Adjunct Fellow at the Hudson Institute (Paul, 4/21. “The Great Transition and the Social Limits to Growth: Herman Kahn on Social Change and Global Economic Development”, April 21, http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_detailsandid=2827)
Stopping things would mean if not to engage in an experiment to change the ….. the potential for the kinds of disasters which most at its advocates are trying to avoid" (Kahn, 1976, 210; 1984). | ||
| 02/23/2013 | Airborne Wind Aff - 1AC - Mars AdvantageTournament: Districts | Round: 2 | Opponent: Navy HR | Judge: Kimball Extinction inevitable – colonization solvesSchulze-Makuch and Davies ‘10 (Dirk Schulze-Makuch, Ph.D., School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Washington State University and Paul Davies, Ph.D., Beyond Center, Arizona State University, “To Boldly Go: A One-Way Human Mission to Mars”, http:~/~/journalofcosmology.com/html(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt" %))
There are several reasons that motivate …. chemical rocket technology. Reducing existential risk by even a tiny amount outweighs every other impact—the math is conclusively on our side.Bostrom ‘11 — Nick Bostrom, Professor in the Faculty of Philosophy and Oxford Martin School, Director of the Future of Humanity Institute, and Director of the Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology at the University of Oxford, recipient of the 2009 Eugene R. Gannon Award for the Continued Pursuit of Human Advancement, holds a Ph.D. in Philosophy from the London School of Economics, 2011 (“The Concept of Existential Risk,” Draft of a Paper published on ExistentialRisk.com, Available Online at http://www.existentialrisk.com/concept.html, Accessed 07-04-2011)
Holding probability constant, risks become more … direct benefit of such an action.13 Err affirmative—the availability heuristic and “good story bias” will make you undervalue our impactBostrom ‘11 — Nick Bostrom, Professor in the Faculty of Philosophy and Oxford Martin School, Director of the Future of Humanity Institute, and Director of the Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology at the University of Oxford, recipient of the 2009 Eugene R. Gannon Award for the Continued Pursuit of Human Advancement, holds a Ph.D. in Philosophy from the London School of Economics, 2011 (“The Concept of Existential Risk,” Draft of a Paper published on ExistentialRisk.com, Available Online at http://www.existentialrisk.com/concept.html, Accessed 07-04-2011)
Many kinds of cognitive bias … likely to happen in reality). Reducing the probability of existential disaster through space colonization is more valuable than preventing specific impact scenarios. Overly detailed impact predictions are improbable and create false perceptions of security.Yudkowsky ‘6—Co-founder and Research Fellow of the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence—a non–profit research institute dedicated to increasing the likelihood of, and decreasing the time to, a maximally beneficial singularity, one of the world’s foremost experts on Artificial Intelligence and rationality Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment Of Global Risks,” Draft of a chapter in Global Catastrophic Risks, edited by Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic, August 31st, 2006, Available Online at http://singinst.org/upload/cognitive-biases.pdf, Accessed 11-11-2010
According to probability theory, …detailed risk scenarios. Mars colonization inevitable– new systems make it feasible – Creating a sustainable environment is key to future effortsBadescu 9 Viorel - Graduated the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering at the Polytechnic University of Bucarest and obtained the Ph.D at the Energetics Faculty in the same University. He worked as an inspector of dynamic systems in a chemical plant, researcher in the field of fluid mechanics and finite element methods and teacher in thermodynamics. Actually he is an Associate Professor in the Chair of Applied Thermodynamics at the Polytechnic University of Bucarest. His main research directions refer to: solar energy and its applications , finite elemert methods , statistical physics and thermodynamics. He published seven books and more than one hundred and fifty scientific papers. He received four awards among which the Romanian Academy Prize for Physics in 1979. He is reviewer or Associate Editor of four international journals and member of 9 scientific societies. “Mars Prospective Energy and Material Resources” http:~/~/download.springer.com/static/pdf/603/bfm%253A978-3-642-03629-3%252F1.pdf?auth66=1360539499_82f29fd3b623fa0bc4a274f0e9643b4fandext=.pdf
Mars, the Red Planet, fourth pla…established there permanently. AWE is key to those sustainable technologies on marsWinslow 11 Lance - the Founder of the Online Think Tank, a diverse group of achievers, experts, innovators, entrepreneurs, thinkers, futurists, academics, dreamers, leaders, and general all around brilliant minds. Lance was previously elected to The Board of Directors of the American Association of Franchises and Dealers (AAFD). He also served on the Fair Franchising Standards Committee. This committee, advised the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and various Senate sub-committees on law changes necessary to protect franchisees. “Tubular Wind Turbine Generation for Mars - Tethered Balloon System Debated “ http:~/~/consept4future.blogspot.com/2011/04/html
Not long ago, I talked to an … and they must be simple and Murphy proof. Perhaps you will put some thought to this and let me know what you think. Please consider all this And the plan enables exploration and pre-requisites to colonizationHausser et all 11 David - Master in Aerospace Engineering. Pradeep Kumar - Designation. Professor, Aerospace Programme. Department. Aerospace Engineering. Engineer IV at Goodrich Aerostructures. "mars aerial and subsurface exploration using the ‘lark’ (lighter than air kite) concept." http:~/~/www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/marsc oncepts2012/pdf/4194.pdf
Introduction: With the … through accessible skylights.
Mars col provides cheap access to space—tech spin offs Zubrin 11—formerly a senior astronautical engineer at Lockheed Martin, chairman of the executive committee of the National Space Society, President of Pioneer Astronautics, a space-exploration research and development firm, and president of the Mars Society, a space advocacy group Robert Zubrin, “8: THE COLONIZATION OF MARS,” Chapter 8, The Case for Mars: The Plan to Settle the Red Planet and Why We Must, Simon and Schuster, Inc., ISBN-10: 145160811X, Publication Date: June 28, 2011, pg. Kindle AIR-BREATHING LAUNCH SYSTEMS Current rocket-based …cheap access to space. | ||
| 02/23/2013 | Airborne Wind Aff - 1AC - Military Power AdvantageTournament: Districts | Round: 2 | Opponent: Navy HR | Judge: Kimball AWE can act as a platform for national defense technology. Additions for anti-sub technology, unmanned underwater vehicles and air stealth detections would boost capabilities and provide necessary communication techMadhu 11 Ujenia –Ph.D. from UC Berkeley in 1992, Bachelors from IIT Delhi in 87“Hexagon Shaped Kite Wind Turbines for Military Defense System Considered” http://consept4future.blogs pot.com/2011/04/hexagon-shaped-kite-wind-turbines-for.html
Is it possible to collect energy …. I think about it, the more all this makes sense to me. Without a reorganized air defense system, New Chinese J-20 fighter technology causes Aggression in the Pacific IslandsSmith 11 James - “CHINA J-20 WILL WASH OUT THE U.S. EXISTING PACIFIC AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM” http://wareye.com/j-20-will-wash-out-the-u-s-existing-pacific-air-defense-system
The article said that both the J-XX (F -20) is a … practical and strategic consequences. And Chinese adventurism in the Pacific would trigger conflict escalation – draws in powersSorman 12 - City Journal contributing editor Guy Sorman, “Where Nationalism Still Matters,” City Journal, 20 August 2012, pg. http://tinyurl.com/8kas2u3
Too often, we see East Asia only from an … dissolves nationalist zeal. Causes extinction Hellman 12 – Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering @ Stanford University (% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt" %)Martin edu/~~hellman/(% style="font-size: 8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt" %) (His current project, Defusing the Nuclear org/(% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt" %), has been endorsed by a former Director of the National Security Agency, Stanford's President Emeritus, and two Nobel Laureates), “Another Early Warning Sign,” Defusing Nuclear Threats, Posted on September 28, 2012url:http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2012/09/28/another-early-warning-sign/||title="3:18 pm", pg. http://tinyurl.com/9r9vdhr The “World Anti-Fascist War” is what we … will realize that potential.
Independently ASAT launches lead to miscalc and extinctionForden 8, PhD and Research Associate @ MIT, 8 (Geoffrey, PhD and Research Associate at MIT, “How China Loses the Coming Space War (Pt. 2),” 1/10, http:~/~/www.wired.com/dangerroom/2008/01/inside-the-ch-1/http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2008/01/inside-the-ch-1/(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt" %))
The United States has five … without a clear military goal. Heg collapsesTellis, 7 - senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (7/23, Ashley J., “China’s Space Weapons,” pdf, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2007/07/23/china-s-space-weapons/v52) The advanced military …. the best way of "leveling the playing field" in the event of a future conflict. You knew itBrooks, Ikenberry and Wohlforth ‘13 Stephen Brooks, Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, John Ikenberry, Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University in Seoul, John Wohlforth, Daniel Webster Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, Jan/Feb 2013, Foreign Affairs, Lean Forward, EBSCO
Of course, even if it is true that the … well be disastrous.
Effective UUV tech is necessary to deter Chinese submarine movement—otherwise, they’ll patrol off the US coast causing crisis situationsMichael Robinson, Defense and Technology Specialist, 1/14/13, moneymorning.com/2013/01/14/this-profit-play-builds-hunter-drones-to-counter-the-chinese-sub-threat/
That's why I was glad to learn … of power back to the United States.
Limiting Chinese sub proximity key—allowing close patrols cause hair trigger alert and use-it-or-lose-it situations—causes nuclear escalationMichael Glosny, Harvard John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies Fellow, 1/9/2008, Federal News Service, CHINA'S BOOMERS: IMPLICATIONS IF CHINA'S DETERRENT GOES TO SEA, Lexis
The first thing I want to say is …. it. And I'll just stop.
ExtinctionWittner 11 (Lawrence S. Wittner, Emeritus Professor of History at the State University of New York/Albany, Wittner is the author of eight books, the editor or co-editor of another four, and the author of over 250 published articles and book reviews. From 1984 to 1987, he edited Peace and Change, a journal of peace research., 11/28/2011, "Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?", www.huntingtonnews.net/14446)
While nuclear weapons exist… chaos and destruction.
UUV’s k/t solve piracyHopkins 12 Nicholas – defense security and foreign policy reporter at the Guardian“Ministry of Defence plans new wave of unmanned marine drones “ http:~/~/u/(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt" %) k/world/2012/aug/02/ministry-defence-plans-unmanned-marine-drones The range of unmanned …diminishing capabilities.
Solves oil spills-~--devastates marine life for decadesMiddleton 8—Roger, consultant reseacher in the Africa Programme at the Chatham House, the Royal Institute of Economic Affairs, "Piracy in Somalia", October, http:~/~/www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Africa/1008piracysomalia.pdf Large oil tankers pass through the … destroy shipping is very real. ExtinctionCraig 3 (Robin, Professor of Law at Indiana, “Taking Steps,” 34 McGeorge Law Review. 155, Lexis)
Biodiversity and ecosystem … wherever possible - even if a few fishers go out of business as a result.
| ||
| 02/23/2013 | Airborne Wind Aff - 1AC - Plan/SolvencyTournament: Districts | Round: 2 | Opponent: Navy Hr | Judge: Plan
The United States federal government should substantially reduce airspace restrictions between 500 and 2000 feet on airborne wind energy production in the United States.
Solvency
The FAA has several restrictions on airborne windFAA ‘11 Federal Aviation Administration, Federal Register/Vol. 76, No. 235/Wednesday, December 7, 2011/Proposed Rules Docket No.: FAA–2011–1279; Notice No. 11–07 Notification for Airborne Wind Energy Systems (AWES) http:~/~/www.energykitesystems.net/FAA/htm(%%), AM
In order to facilitate the timely manner … portions may be applicable.) These restrictions are preventing adequate research and developmentLegget 12 Nickolaus E. Leggett, Licensed aircraft Pilot, certified electronics technician (ISCET and AND 07 To the Federal Aviation Administration: Formal Comments of Nickolaus E. Leggett
The first AWES prototypes should … testing environment is needed AWE RandD investment nowDiehl et al, 11 (Moritz Diehl (K.U. Leuven), Reinhart Paelinck (K.U. Leuven), and Richard Ruiterkamp (AmpyxPower), http:~/~/www.awec2011.com/http://www.awec2011.com/(% style="font-size: 8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt" %)) The AWE industry is in a crucial … the future of airborne wind energy. Petro majors will participate -~-- it's a cost savings.Texier 11 - Innovation Analyst @ com/search?search=andtitle=Innovation+Analyst+-+CleantechandsortCriteria=RandkeepFacets=trueandcurrentTitle=C||title="Find users with this title" EDF Maud Texier “Offshore Oil and Gas: a renewable energy?,” Sia com/author/admin||title="View all posts by Sia Partners", July 1, 2011url:http://energy.sia-partners.com/1506||title="9:03 pm" pg. http://tinyurl.com/c7pzupg The IEA announces in its last annual …. offshore wind energy against onshore projects. The technology is good to goCahoon ‘11 Troy, US air force Captain, Air Force Institute of Technology, Presented to the Faculty Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Graduate School of Engineering and Management Air Force Institute of Technology Air University Air Education and Training Command In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Aeronautical Engineering, “AIRBORNE WIND ENERGY: IMPLEMENTATION AND DESIGN FOR THE U.S. AIR FORCE,” http:~/~/www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/pdf(%%),
Some researchers are currently .. AWE system production.9-11. That means 8-12 monthsPeter Lynn 11 Started Stirling Research Ltd, and with Dr. Donald Clucas began the development of a Stirling cycle engine http://peterlynnhimself.com/Stirling_Verses_Kite.php||title="Stirling Verses Kite"generator for yachts (and later for in-home combined heat and power systems). From 1991, Dr Clucas continued this development through to commercialisation with WhisperGen, a business formed for this purpose by elements of the NZ electricity industry. “Can you imagine airborne wind energy being deployed at the terawatt scale?” http:~/~/www.nearzero.org/Content/org/Content/repo(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt" %) rts/AirborneWind/transcript.html Yes I can imagine it. However I … rather than years.
PTC extension will massively increase US wind production Bloomberg 1/2/13 Bloomberg news, “U.S. Credit Extension May Revive Stalled Wind Industry,” http:~/~/www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-02/html(%%), AM
The one-year extension of a U.S. …some construction started.” | ||
| 02/23/2013 | Airborne Wind Aff - 2AC - MilTournament: Districts | Round: 2 | Opponent: Navy HR | Judge: Kimball No impact to sequestration – small continued recession inevitable but neg claims are exaggerated Carmichael 1-19 kevin – works as a Report on Business's correspondent in Washington. graduated from Carleton University with a combined degree in journalism and political science “Conflicting budget viewpoints a roadblock to any U.S. deficit solution” http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/conflicting-budget-viewpoints-a-roadblock-to-any-us-deficit-solution/article7540292/ Prof. Krugman, the Princeton University …… to lurch from one short-term “crisis” to another for some time to come. | ||
| 02/23/2013 | Airborne Wind Aff - 2AC - A2: T RestrictionsTournament: Districts | Round: 2 | Opponent: Navy HR | Judge: We meet – we make production possible where it was not before. If we don't meet, no one does. Federal Register 9 “Renewable Energy and Alternate Uses of Existing Facilities on the Outer Continental Shelf; Final Rule,” 30 CFR Parts 250, 285, and 290, Volume 74, Number 81 (Wednesday, April 29, 2009), pg. http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2009-04-29/html/E9-9462.htm
This section explains that, except as otherwise ….. required to seek a license from FERC.
Counter interp - Restrictions on production are statutes that make production more difficult or expensive. LVM 96 (Ludwig Von Mises Institute, Original Book by Ludwig Von Mises, Austrian Economist in 1940. Evidence is cut from fourth edition copyright Bettina B. Greaves, Human Action, http://mises.org/pdf/humanaction/pdf/ha_29.pdf)
Restriction of production means that …… per unit of input is higher to locations in which it is lower. It does not increase production; it curtails it.
That’s specifically true for this topic Phil et al 12 Erik Phil and Filip Johnsson, Division of Energy Technology, Chalmers University of Technolog, and Duncan Kushnir and Bjorn Sanden, Division of Environmental Systems Analysis, Chalmers University of Technology, August 2012,Material constraints for concentrating solar thermal powerEnergy Volume 44, Issue 1, August 2012, Pages 944–954
The available solar flux on land is several ……. and potential bottlenecks and manufacturing constraints for CSP production. | ||
| 02/23/2013 | Airbone Wind Aff - 2AC - A2: Steel DATournament: | Round: | Opponent: Navy HR | Judge: Alt causes to industry decline – econ, political instabilityTverberg 10/21/12 (Gail, Oil Prices Online, “Why Natural Gas Won’t Save the World”) In many ways, natural gas …… Gas (LNG) facilities, no matter how attractive the pricing may seem to be. Natural gas and renewables aren’t zero sum – there is no forced trade offDaily Finance 10/15/12 (“Chevron Strategist Warns Era of Too Cheap Natural Gas Will End Soon”) Although low natural gas prices had …… they are perfectly complementary."
Coal is trading off – Tverberg 10/21/12 (Gail, Oil Prices Online, “Why Natural Gas Won’t Save the World”) http:~/~/oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/html 1. Price competition from ….. will again move back toward coal. Eurozone outweighs their internal link to econEconomic Times 1/2 ("Europe 'real risk' for global economy: Joseph Stiglitz," http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/europe-real-risk-for-global-economy-joseph-stiglitz/articleshow/17855407.cms) FRANKFURT: Debt problems in both the United States …… to a deterioration in the patient's condition," Stiglitz argued. | ||
| 02/23/2013 | Airborne Wind Aff - 2AC - A2: ImmigrationTournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Sequestration thumps Fournier 2-22 Ron - Editorial Director of National Journal, and Washington Bureau Chief. He is also a three-time winner of the White House Correspondents' Association Merriman Smith award. “The Edge: Under Sequester, Nobody Wins” http://www.nationaljournal.com/the-edge-newsletter/the-edge-under-sequester-nobody-wins-20130222 Congress completes a 10-…… reelection political capital.
Funding now should trigger Mishra 1-30 Richa senior consultant and research fellow “Venture capital funding in wind energy sector lower in CY 2012” http:~/~/thehindubu/(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"" %) sinessline.com/industry-and-economy/venture-capital-funding-in-wind-energy-sector-lower-in-cy-2012/article4360809.ece?ref=wl_opinion
Of the 22 global deals in 2012, there …… of Mercom Capital Group.
Winners win and political capitals not key Hirsch, 2-7 (Michael, Michael Hirsh is chief correspondent for National Journal. He also contributes to 2012 com/contributors/michael-hirsh(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"" %). Hirsh previously served as the senior editor and national economics correspondent for Newsweek, based in its Washington bureau. He was also Newsweek’s Washington web editor and authored a weekly column for Newsweek.com, “The World from Washington.” Earlier on, he was Newsweek’s foreign editor, guiding its award-winning coverage of the September 11 attacks and the war on terror. He has done on-the-ground reporting in Iraq, Afghanistan, and other places around the world, and served as the Tokyo-based Asia Bureau Chief for Institutional Investor from 1992 to 1994. “There’s No Such Thing as Political Capital,” http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207?page=1) Naturally, any president has practical and electoral limits. …..It’s a bandwagon effect.”
Turn – AWE popular Danigelis, 10 (Alyssa Danigelis, Airborne Wind Turbins Lift Off, http:~/~/www.silverbearcafe.com/private/06.10/turbines.htmlhttp://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/06.10/turbines.html(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"" %)) To help get high altitude wind stakeholders on the …… energy research and development.
FAA shields politics Dobkin 8—past Chairperson of the Immigration Law Section of the Oakland County (Michigan) Bar Association and has lectured and presented seminars on immigration in the U.S., Canada and the U.K. (Donald, THE RISE OF THE ADMINISTRATIVE STATE: APRESCRIPTION FOR LAWLESSNESS, www.law.ku.edu/publications/journal/pdf/v17n3/pdf(%%)) Because an agency’s actions often …… Bulletin, which guides agency decisions. 38
Obama has no political capital Euronews, 1-19 (Obama’s second com/2013/01/19/obama-s-second-wind/(%%), http://www.euronews.com/2013/01/19/obama-s-second-wind/) Thomas Mann, an analyst with the ….. blasting me for being a ‘big-spending socialist.’”
Pol cap not key Rockman 9, Purdue University Political Science professor, 9 (Bert A., October 2009, Presidential Studies Quarterly, “Does the revolution in presidential studies mean "off with the president's head"?”, volume 39, issue 4, Academic OneFile. accessed 7-15-10)
Although Neustadt shunned theory as such, his ideas ….. of a propositional nature prior to Neustadt.
Plan is overwhelmingly popular Schwartz and Wald 1/2/13 Nelson, Reporter at The New York Times. Past. Senior Writer/Europe Editor at Fortune Magazine, and Matthew, reporter for NYT, “Some Breaks for Industries Are Retained in Fiscal Deal,” http:~/~/www.nytimes.com/2013/01/03/business/some-breaks-for-industries-are-retained-in-fiscal-deal.html?_r=0url:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/03/business/some-breaks-for-industries-are-retained-in-fiscal-deal.html?_r=0(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"" %), AM
The wind industry, a chief beneficiary of support from Washington……. percent of the factories. | ||
| 02/23/2013 | Airborne Wind Aff - 2AC - A2: Navy Coop CPTournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: Plan increases ice cover in the arctic Archer and Caldeira 9 Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences, California State University – Chico, Chico, Caldiera - Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, CA “Global Assessment of High-Altitude Wind Power” www.mdpi.com/journal/energies A final issue is whether large-scale ….. this interpretation. Prevents escalation and Russia- NATO war Ferrara 12 – Master of Arts candidate @ The Johns Hopkins University’s SAIS Bologna Center and Master of Arts in International cfmandei=7-suUOqRHcfaywH32YCICgandusg=AFQjCNHQnnfJPboKwpf-dpSFVJdXLLZh5Qandsig2=sTotgLAwl7uVljkQwFe6OQ(% style="font-size:8.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"" %) candidate @ The Johns Hopkins University’s SAIS Bologna Center Chiara Rogate and Marco Ferrara, “Climate Change and Power Shifts in the Arctic html(% style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "MS Mincho"" %),” Bologna Center Journal of International Affairs, Volume 15 - Spring 2012, pg. http://bcjournal.org/volume-15/climate-change-and-power-shifts-in-the-arctic-region.html
Conflict vs. Cooperation The political situation in the …… before they develop to the point that no satisfactory remedy can be found. Extinction. Krieger 12 - President of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation and Senior Scientist for Physicians for Social Responsibility. David Krieger and Steven Starr, “A Nuclear Nightmare in the Making: NATO, Missile Defense and Russian Insecurity,” Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, January 03, 2012 http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/db_article.php?article_id=321
This is a dangerous scenario, no matter ….. US nuclear weapons that are already forward-based in Europe.
| ||
| 02/24/2013 | 1AC Passive SolarTournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge: JMU Aff - Passive SolarWe’re the richest country in history yet do nothing while families are forced to choose between necessitates like heat and food |
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