Tournament:  | Round:  | Opponent:  | Judge:
Text: the United States federal government should substantially increase fixed price contracts for nuclear energy produced by additional naval aircraft carriers.

Contention 1: The Carrier Gap
First, The Navy just spent billions on new carriers, but the carrier schedule is stalled
O’Rourke 7/26, Ronald O'Rourke has a M.A. in international studies and is a naval specialist for the Congressional Research Service, “Navy Ford (CVN-78) Class Aircraft Carrier Program: Background and Issues for Congress” http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RS20643.pdf
The carrier force will drop… and the commissioning of CVN-78.

Second, This schedule creates a severe shortfall- The fleet will be stuck with an unprecedented low of ten carriers for half a decade
Eaglen, Senior Policy Analyst for National Security at the Heritage Foundation, 2k8 (Mackenzie, Aug 1st, “Aircraft Carriers Are Crucial”, The Washington Post)
To maintain 11 carriers, the Navy… Ford to the 2013-2014 timeframe.

AND, Maintenance cycles means that less than 10 carriers are deployed. This kills effectiveness.
Erdossy 7/17-Marty Erdossy is the former Commanding Officer of the USS George Washington (CVN 73).
“Why Does The United States Only Have Eleven Aircraft Carriers?”
Typical maintenance periods range… of operations and maintenance.
This is especially true with rising tensions with Iran
Foreign Policy 7/20-“This Week at War: If You Build Up, Who Will Come?”
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/07/20/this_week_at_war_if_you_build_up_who_will_come?page=0,1
Pentagon spokesman George Little said… certainly headed higher. 

AND, unless new carriers are built, US will inevitably over-commit.
Haddick, ‘12
Robert Haddick, contractor at U.S. Special Operations Command, editor of Small Wars Journal, and former Marine Corps; “This Week at War: Does the U.S. Need More Aircraft Carriers?” 5/25/2012; http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/05/25/this_week_at_war_does_the_us_need_more_aircraft_carriers
A May 21 article in the… Asia-Pacific theater sounding hollow.

AND, Their disads are non-starters. The Navy just increased spending for carriers
Capaccio 8/5-writer for Bloomberg, “Huntington Risks Losing $194 Million on Navy Carrier Cost”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-05/huntington-risks-losing-194-million-for-navy-carrier-s-overrun.html
The company would receive…Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) in March 2011. 

Contention 2 is Sea Power:
Carriers provide unmatched firepower and survivability- that’s key to military dominance
Allen, Retired Vice Admiral and former Commander of Naval Air Forces of the Atlantic Fleet, 2k1 (Richard, “Aircraft carriers and sea-based air power: Smaller is not better and numbers do count!,” Sea Power, June)
Today, the 15 CVBG/14 CVW/600-ship… nation's allies around the world.

And, Naval power is the very foundation of U.S. hegemony. American dominance invisibly deters myriad challengers and conflicts
Friedman, founder, CEO, and chief intelligence officer of Stratfor, 2k7 (George, April 10th, “The Limitations and Necessity of Naval Power”, http://www.stratfor.com/limitations_and_necessity_naval_power)
The argument for slashing the… foremost, a maritime power.

The impact is Kagan—Enough Said
Kagan, 2007 (Robert, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “End of Dreams, Return of History” Policy Review, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html#n10)
Finally, there is the United States itself… will provide an easier path. 

Heg Bad isn’t an argument. Obama makes intervention inevitable
Kagan 7 (Robert, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/27/AR2007042702027.html
America must "lead… a left-liberal foreign poli

Theoretical arguments about inevitable decline create a self-fulfilling prophecy- even if collapse is inevitable, we should attempt to sustain it
Schweller '1 Associate Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University Randall L. "The Problem of International Order Revisited" International Security, 26.1 (Project Muse)
First, although hegemonic decline… accordance with Ikenberry's prescription.

The alternative is net worse. The transition entails global chaos and conflict – multipolrity can never exist.
Brzezinski 05 National Security Advisor in the Carter Administration, Professor of Foreign Policy @ Johns Hopkins University (Zbigniew "The Choice")
History is a record of change… stabilizer will also endure. 

And, Carriers solve- A robust fleet prevents crisis escalation
Eaglen, Senior Policy Analyst for National Security at the Heritage Foundation, 2k8 (Mackenzie, Aug 1st, “Aircraft Carriers Are Crucial”, The Washington Post)
For any U.S. president… maintain at least 12 carriers.

The gradual decline of the Navy will leave a vacuum culminating in major power competition and global war.  A strong navy ensures global stability even through a land defeat.
Robert D. Kaplan November 2007 Atlantic Monthly, national correspondent for The Atlantic, is the Class of 1960 Distinguished Visiting Professor in National Security at the U.S. Naval Academy, http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200711/america-decline/3
“Regular wars” between major… our elites appear blind. 

Contention 3 is Air Power—
The political will and focus of Air Force leaders is killing American air dominance.
Goure 2010-Daniel, Ph.D., “Say Goodbye To U.S. Air Dominance -- And Perhaps To Victory In The Next War” http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/say-goodbye-to-us-air-dominance~-~-~-~-and-perhaps-to-victory-in-the-next-war?a=1andc=1171
The United States may be ... except through the air.

Plan Solves 2 internal links
Subpoint A is is Strike Capability:
Carrier air wings maximize air power capability by providing air missions with deep strike capability and operating capacity.
Lambeth 2k5- Benjamin Lambeth is senior research associate at the RAND Corporation, “American Carrier Air Power at the Dawn of a New Century.”
The terrorist attacks against ... information networks, and weapons.

AND, Carriers are the bread and butter of our air power strategy. Missions are launched and sustained by carrier air wings. Prefer most recent applications.
Lambeth 2k5- Benjamin Lambeth is senior research associate at the RAND Corporation, “American Carrier Air Power at the Dawn of a New Century.”
Operation Enduring Freedom ... complete the mission.6

Additionally, conventional air power is restricted by bases that our threatened. Carriers provide unmatched mobility.
Grant 2009 “U.S. Air Dominance Eroding” http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2355783/posts
Without functioning ground ... likely be exported.

Subpoint  B is Jamming Systems:
Only carriers have jamming systems that can engage in electronic warfare but shortages means commanders have to “gap-fill” land sites.
Lambeth 2k5- Benjamin Lambeth is senior research associate at the RAND Corporation, “American Carrier Air Power at the Dawn of a New Century.”
After the Air Force ... turn-around cycle.”4

Jammers are key to overall effectiveness.
Zaitsev 2k9—April 14, Yury Zaitsev is an academic adviser with the Russian Academy of Engineering Sciences, “Electronic warfare, a crucial factor in future conflicts”
Electronic warfare will ... for quite some time. 

Air power allows the US to win the race for influence and legitimacy in the Asia
Garretson 5/19-2012, Lt Col. Peter Garretson is an Airpower and Spacepower Strategist, Grand Stategist and a visiting fellow at the Indian Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis, “Air Power Key to U.S. Asia Goals” http://thediplomat.com/2012/05/19/air-power-key-to-u-s-asia-goals/2/
An institutional Air Force ... a percent of the USAF budget.

Asia’s key to everything
Clinton 11-November, Hilary Clinton is the United States Secretary of State, “America's Pacific Century”
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/americas_pacific_century?page=full
As the war in ...for universal human rights. 

Economic collapse causes extinction
Kerpen 8, Director of Policy for Americans for Prosperity, Contributing Editor for National Review Online, Chair of the Internet Freedom Coalition, former Policy Director and Executive Director for the Free Enterprise Fund, former Analyst and Researcher for the Club for Growth, the Woodhill Foundation, and the Cato Institute, 10-28-8 (Phil, “From Panic to Depression?,” National Review)
But with so many ... couldn’t be any higher.

Trade solves war
McDonald in ’04 (Patrick, Professor of Government at University of Texas Austin, Journal of Conflict Resolution, “Peace through Trade or Free Trade?” Volume 48, Number 4, August)
An extensive base ... (e.g., Morrow 1999; Gartzke, Li, and Boehmer 2001).

Warming ends all life on earth
Tickell, 8-11-2008
(Oliver, Climate Researcher, The Gaurdian, “On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)
We need to get ... similar hothouse Earth. 

Asian conflict goes nuclear
Valery V. Tsepkalo, Belarussian Ambassador to the U.S., Foreign Affairs, March/April 1998, Lexis
But abetting the ... of mass destruction.

Tournament: Navy | Round: 2 | Opponent:  | Judge:
Strategic reassessment in the Asian-Pacific makes now the key time for new defense initiatives. The plan is key to ensure an effective shift to Air-Sea Battle
O’Hanlon and Steinberg 8/23—Michael E. O’Hanlon is senior fellow at the Brookings Institute and James Steinberg is Dean of Maxwell School at Syracuse University, and former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, August 23, “Going Beyond "Air-Sea Battle" in Asia and the Pacific”
http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/08/23-air-sea-battle-ohanlon
In fact, as a military concept… involved big new weapons platforms.

Carriers are key to strategic success in amorphous operations. Failure assures allies lashout and force reversion of strategy. Only the plan can access sustainability
Raska 10/30—Michael Raska, a research fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, “Air-Sea Battle Debate: Operational Consequences and Allied Concerns”
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20121030/DEFFEAT05/310300008/Air-Sea-Battle-Debate
U.S. allies in East Asia, however… inland access to the adversary’s territory.

Specifically, carriers are key to mission success
Forbes 12—Rep. J. Randy Forbes, R-Va., is chairman of the House Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee and founder and co-chairman of the Congressional China Caucus, “America’s Pacific Air-Sea Battle Vision” http://thediplomat.com/2012/03/08/americas-pacific-air-sea-battle-vision/2/
At its highest level, Congress… volume of Tomahawk missiles.

Plan solves—Only carriers have jamming systems that can engage in electronic warfare but shortages means commanders have to “gap-fill”
Lambeth 2k5- Benjamin Lambeth is senior research associate at the RAND Corporation, “American Carrier Air Power at the Dawn of a New Century.”
After the Air Force decided… carrier air wing turn-around cycle.”4

Jammers are key to overall effectiveness.
Zaitsev 2k9—April 14, Yury Zaitsev is an academic adviser with the Russian Academy of Engineering Sciences, “Electronic warfare, a crucial factor in future conflicts”
Electronic warfare will play.. country for quite some time. 

A war with China is inevitable—ASB means war now would be won by the United States and be a small conflict. Delaying the inevitable results in a future war that will escalate to nuclear extinction
Babbin and Timperlake 06
(Jed and Edward” War with China: not only possible, but inevitable Here's a guide to how it may happen -- and how we can win Showdown: Why China Wants War with the United States”, http://www.conservativebookservice.com/products/BookPage.asp?prod_cd=c6926#continue )
Will the U.S. go to war… the run-up to World War II

History is on our side – every nation that has ever come to global power has always done so through massive transition war; China will be no different, they are a threat, and they will always perceive us as THE enemy no matter how much you hippies don’t want them to.
Kagan 05 (Robert, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, “The Illusion of ‘Managing’ China”, lexis)
The history of rising powers,… many tragic lessons of history.

A war with China must happen in the status quo in order to maintain United States hegemony – war now would easily be won by the United but Carrier groups are key
Ross 05 – Prof Poly Science Boston College, (Robert Assessing the China Threat National Interest  Fall, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2751/is_81/ai_n15753420/print)
More relevant is the considerable… Party and cause its collapse. 

You should prefer war now. First, China only has a few working nukes
Lieber and Press 2007 (Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press, Dartmouth professors, “Superiority Complex,” the atlantic monthly, July/Aug 2007, http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200707/china-nukes)
In the 1990s, with the Cold War receding… notice of an incoming attack.

Second, they wouldn’t use them
Sydney Morning Herald 4/8 (Jan Flemr, Alexander Osipovich, 4/8/10, "Obama and Medvedev cut nuclear arsenals, warn Iran")
The US-Russia treaty is being eagerly watched by other nuclear powers.
China on Thursday urged… circumstances and at any time."

Additionally, striking now would eliminate their arsenal
Lieber and Press, 9 (Keir A.,  Associate Professor @ Georgetown University,  Daryl G., Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College, Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec)
MODELING THE UNTHINKABLE To illustrate… give a U.S. president real options.

China’s military is woefully inadequate --- a US attack obliterates their military capacity
Lieber and Presse 6 – Keir A. Leiber, author of War and the Engineers: The Primacy of Politics over Technology, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame. Daryl G. Press, author of Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania ("The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2006)
China's nuclear arsenal is.. for a decade or more. 

The window of opportunity is closing— China is modernizing its nuclear forces now
Gill, phd, Director of SIPRI, 10 Bates, “CHINA AND NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL: CURRENT POSITIONS AND FUTURE POLICIEs” , http://books.sipri.org/files/insight/SIPRIInsight1004.pdf
Nonetheless, China is in.. important in this regard

China’s main focus of modernization is ASAT technology
Bajoria 9 (Jayshree, staff writer – Council on Foreign Relations, “China's Military Power,” 2-4, http://www.cfr.org/ publication/18459/)
As part of this modernization… support them," he said.

Chinese ASAT development causes global nuclear shootouts
Hitchens 5 (Theresa, Vice President and Director of the Space Security Project at the Center for Defense Information, Defense News, Worst-Case Mentality Clouds USAF Space Strategy, 2-14, http://www.cdi.org/program/ document.cfm?DocumentID=2885and StartRow=11andListRows=10andand Orderby=D.DateLastUpdatedand ProgramID=68andtypeID=(8)andfrom_ page=relateditems.cfm)
The case being argued… satellite conked out due to faulty manufacturing processes.